Being a Michigan fan that grew up in Ohio and currently lives in New York, I’m constantly bombarded with ridicule from friends and family about the state of the Michigan football program.

“Wow, Michigan has really fallen apart; I don’t think they’ll ever be the same,” one will say, or “Don’t you wish you had a quality coach like Tressel?” another will ask.

In passing conversation, especially with an Ohio State fan, it’s impossible to adequately describe the perfect storm that has been Michigan football the past two seasons.

So as we enter Week 1 of the 2010 college football season, let’s put into words how Michigan’s recent demise, while frustrating, is not quite as bad as it seems.

Be Careful What You Wish For

On the surface, it’s easy to pronounce, “Carr never had a losing season and Rodriguez has losing seasons in each of his first two years, therefore, Rodriguez is a terrible coach and must be fired.”

Yet, a little critical thinking will tell you that there’s more to it than that. The blame for the past two seasons should be as much on former Michigan Athletic Director Bill Martin as on Head Coach Rich Rodriguez. It was Martin, after all, who decided to take Michigan down a completely new path to modernity following Carr’s retirement after the 2007 season.

Carr was a conservative coach who continued the success of his mentor, Michigan legend Bo Schembechler, combining with Bo and Gary Moeller to guide the program to 40 straight winning seasons and 33 straight bowl games. His teams were never going to go out and put up 60 points or step on an opponent’s throat while it was down. But they were never going to get blown out either.

That was both a blessing and a curse. Carr’s safe approach, whether it was punting on fourth-and-one from the opponent’s 45 with a minute and-a-half left in the half, or running three straight times to wind down the clock late in the game while clinging to a two-point lead, worked out more often than not. However, in the few instances when it gave the opponent enough time to score before the half, or gave the opponent the ball back with a chance to drive for the winning score, it was enraging. Michigan fans were constantly calling for Carr to stop being so conservative and some were even calling for him to be fired.

When Martin went out and hired an offensive innovator from West Virginia, some Michigan fans were disappointed that he didn’t get former Michigan offensive lineman Les Miles, while others were intrigued by the notion of the spread offense in Ann Arbor.

Martin knew upon hiring Rodriguez that, while he was an offensive genius, that coaching IQ fit a certain system. His style of coaching doesn’t mesh with the 320-pound offensive linemen and statuesque quarterbacks of Michigan past. He needs smaller, quicker offensive linemen and dual-threat quarterbacks. Whether you think that’s the sign of a good coach or not, that’s what Martin hired.

Right off the bat, Michigan fans expecting a carry-over from the Schembechler/Moeller/Carr regime were in for a letdown. That blame cannot be pinned on Rodriguez.

An Empty Cupboard Won’t Yield a Feast

Carr officially retired following the 2007 season, but he seemingly checked out a couple of years prior. He first hinted at calling it quits prior to 2007 and many believe that had Michigan beaten Ohio State in 2006 and advanced to the National Championship game, Carr’s exit would have come then.

He entered 2007 with a senior four-year-starter at quarterback (Chad Henne) and a hot-shot freshman (Ryan Mallett) backing him up. Part of Carr’s bait to hook Mallett, the number two quarterback in the 2006 high school class, was that the job was his when Henne graduated and Carr wouldn’t recruit a quarterback in the 2007 class.

Mallett, however, had trouble adjusting to Ann Arbor, butting heads with Carr during his freshman season, while being thrust into playing time during Henne’s injury-plagued senior season. By all accounts, Mallett intended to return home following that season regardless of who the coach was in 2008.

Following that season, Henne graduated along with four-year starting running back Mike Hart and left tackle Jake Long (the 1^st overall pick in the 2008 NFL Draft). Junior wide receivers Mario Manningham and Adrian Arrington chose to enter the Draft and left guard Adam Kraus graduated, leaving Rodriguez with just a handful of returning starters on offense, none of which were suited for his offense.

The coaching transition was further slowed when Rodriguez lost out on Terrelle Pryor to Ohio State and offensive lineman Justin Boren bolted for Ohio State, bad-mouthing the program on his way out.* Pryor’s talents fit Rodriguez’s system and would have made some difference in 2008 and Boren certainly had the talent, but wasn’t committed to working hard enough for Rodriguez’s system.

Instead, Rodriguez was left with less talent and experience on offense than the majority of college football. His choice at quarterback was a freshman (Steven Threet) or a walk-on junior (Nick Sheridan), neither of which had any game experience and neither was suited for Rodriguez’s system. That alone wouldn’t have doomed the Wolverines had there been an experienced supporting cast to make up for it.

The best running back Rodriguez had was also a true freshman, Sam McGuffie, a Carr recruit who would have redshirted in any normal situation. The top receiver was a true freshman as well, Martavious Odoms, one of Rodriguez’s first recruits at Michigan who is more suited to be a supporting receiver rather than the lead role.

It’s certainly no stretch to say that no team in college football history has succeeded with freshmen starting at quarterback, running back, and wide receiver, no matter how highly-touted they are coming out of high school. It’s also no stretch to say that no coach in the country could have fared well with what Rodriguez had to work with in 2008.

Essentially, Rodriguez had two choices: to design a completely new playbook to fit the talents of the players Carr left behind or to begin installing his spread ‘n shred offense.

The former might have yielded another win or two that season, allowing Threet and Sheridan to be drop-back passers and McGuffie to run for three yards and a cloud of dust. Yet it would have set back the progression of the offense Rodriguez was going to install – the one he made his living on in working his way up from Glennville State to Tulane to Clemson to West Virginia and, ultimately, to Michigan.

The latter would at least get that progression started for Odoms and the rest of the players recruited by Rodriguez specifically for that offense.

Again, keep in mind that Martin didn’t hire a coach who then surprised everyone by running some wacky offense that no one knew about. Martin knew when he hired Rodriguez that he was essentially a system coach and the best in his field.

To expect that system to work from Day 1 is ludicrous even if he had Henne, Hart, and Long. Simply put, Michigan didn’t have the right players and that’s not Rodriguez’s fault.

Imagine if Schwinn Bicycle Company hired a new CEO who decided the company was going to start making airplanes. While the company is great at making bikes, handlebars and spokes will only fly so far. Mr. CEO would have to begin acquiring the necessary components to build airplanes and it wouldn’t happen overnight.

In the world of college football, players stay in a system for four or five years, making the roster turnover a slow process. It’s impossible to just get rid of 100-plus players of the old regime and bring in 100-plus of your guys. It takes four or five years to turn over the roster, and in theory, the results should progress each year.

By planting the seeds of his offense from Day 1, Rodriguez began to water the roots of his system.

In 2009, Rodriguez was able to land two quarterbacks that fit his offensive style, Tate Forcier and Denard Robinson. Threet transferred to Arizona State when he realized he was a square peg in a round hole and Sheridan was relegated to third string.

In one sense, Rodriguez has progressed with Odoms and the rest of the returnees from 2008 already having a knowledge base of the system. But on the other hand, he was back at square one, having to start another true freshman at quarterback.

Even so, the offense showed marked year-over-year improvement, going from 20.2 points and 290.8 yards per game in 2008 to 29.5 points and 384.5 yards per game in 2009. It just lacked consistency as a result of inexperience.

Reporters With an Axe to Grind

The next fodder for the anti-Rodriguez crowd is the allegation of cheating which was exposed by the Detroit Free Press last August. While all kinds of conspiracy theories exist, the fact is that the Free Press’ reports were nothing short of slanted, biased and exaggerated.

The paper’s writers, Michael Rosenberg and Mark Snyder, succeeded in creating a national sense of animosity towards Rodriguez and ego-boosting by fans of other schools.

The NCAA’s probe, released in February found five violations that in any other situation would be considered the minor, slap-on-the-wrist types that are constantly self-reported or overlooked by other schools. However, as a result of the “Freep Jihad,” the NCAA came down hard, finding five so-called major violations.

While all are nothing more than what would be found at nearly every other school in the country, the national perception is that Michigan and Rich Rodriguez knowingly cheated. It’s easy to create that perception when you’re a reporter with an axe to grind. Just find a couple of disgruntled former players who will gladly trash their former coach as well as a few ignorant freshmen and distort their words. In that way, the situation in Ann Arbor is different than everywhere else.

There is no doubt that Ohio State would find itself behind the eight-ball if the Columbus Dispatch decided to declare jihad on the school. Just this summer the Ohio State athletic department self-reported 13 minor violations between Jan. 1 and July 1, six involving the football program. In fact, since 2000, Ohio State has self-reported 375 minor violations (across all sports), the most of any school in the NCAA. By comparison, Oklahoma has self-reported 224 and Florida 112. 

This leads to two possible conclusions: either Ohio State purposely crosses the line just a little bit, and decides every now and then to self-report just to keep the NCAA at bay; or Ohio State’s athletic department and coaching staff don’t monitor the rule book well enough to know that they shouldn’t keep making these kinds of mistakes.

Either way, if the Dispatch decided that instead of just reporting these violations, they were going to dive in and blow them out of proportion, the NCAA would almost certainly have to come down hard.

So the issue isn’t that Rich Rodriguez is a cheating scumbag; it’s that he didn’t meet the standards of two local reporters.

I’m not saying that Michigan wasn’t wrong, but failing to count 10 minutes of stretching as countable practice time certainly doesn’t justify the national perception created by Rosenberg and Snyder, nor does it create any more of a competitive advantage than those 375 minor violations at Ohio State.

To Paraphrase Arnold, We’ll Be Back

So now that Rodriguez finds himself firmly on the proverbial hot seat, many consider him all but gone if Michigan fails to have a great season this year. But that’s not the case.

If absolutely no progress is shown and another losing season is the end result, then it could happen. But a winning season, a bowl game, and signs of progress assure a fourth season on the job because 2011 promises to be a good one.

Following this season, Michigan loses only one starter on the offensive side (left guard Stephen Schilling) and two on the defensive side (linebackers Obi Ezeh and Jonas Mouton).

When senior cornerback Troy Woolfolk went down with a season-ending ankle injury last week, it was both a blessing and a curse. Woolfolk won’t be able to help out a very thin secondary this season, but intends to come back for his senior season in 2011, so a position that will be a weakness this season will be a strength next year.

In addition to 18 starters returning (19 if you count getting Woolfolk back), quarterbacks Tate Forcier and Denard Robinson will be in their third season running the offense. By then, their comfort level will be enough to ensure an offense sure to be as vaunted as those Rodriguez featured at West Virginia.

The schedule also sets up nicely with Notre Dame, Wisconsin, and Ohio State at home, Penn State off the schedule, and Western Michigan, Eastern Michigan, and San Diego State as the other non-conference opponents (although the conference schedule may change due to the realignment and addition of Nebraska).  

In other words, Michigan Athletic Director Dave Brandon would be ill-advised to fire Rodriguez after this season unless things really blow up. I don’t support firing him this season anyway, since 2011 will really be the determining season.

Consider 2010 the primer for a run at the inaugural Big Ten Championship next season. Don’t write off Rodriguez and the Wolverines just yet, because it’s not quite as bad as it seems.

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*Many have also piled on Rodriguez for the players that have left the program for various reasons, such as Boren and wide receiver Toney Clemons who transfered, Justin Feagen and Boubacar Cissoko who were kicked off the team, and others who failed to qualify. Yet they forget that Carr had the same troubles.

In 2007 alone, Carr dismissed tight end Carson Butler, defensive end Eugene Germany, and cornerback Chris Richards from the team for violating team rules, backup quarterback Jason Forcier (Tate’s older brother) transfered to Stanford, and linebacker Cobrani Mixon transfered to Kent State (all of which subsequently hurt the depth of Rodriguez’s teams).

This article is inspired by a similar article written by the Detroit News’ Angelique Chengelis.

As spring practice nears its midway point and the college basketball and hockey seasons come to a close, I can’t help but look ahead to August. August is when every recruit is on campus, not just the early-enrolling freshmen, battling in the sweltering heat to get ready for the impending season. It’s also when the magazines put out their college football preview issues chalk full of team breakdowns and predictions.

While I can’t wait for August to roll around and the season opener against Connecticut to kick off on September 4, I want to look ahead even further. Further even than next season. I’d like to present my bucket-list, if you will, of teams Michigan should schedule for out-of-conference games in the future.

The winds of change are sweeping through the Michigan athletic department with Dave Brandon, the former Domino’s Pizza CEO, taking over the Athletic Director post. Brandon, who played at Michigan under Bo Schembechler, has already steadfastly stood in front of reporters deflecting questions on the impending NCAA violations and announced that the first-ever night game in the Big House will take place in 2011 against Notre Dame.

With the shift in football philosophy the past couple of years away from the traditional pro-style offense to the spread-option attack of Rich Rodriguez, this isn’t your same old Michigan football anymore. Whether you think that to be good or bad, it’s the present reality.

Even the tradition has undergone a bit of a change as of late. The gameday music has shifted to less of the Michigan Marching Band and to more piped-in electronic music. The secrecy from inside “The Fort,” (Michigan’s practice facility, Schembechler Hall) has transformed into what some feel to be too much openness. Heck, maybe president Obama could use a few pointers from this coaching staff on openness.

Biggest of all, on September 4, the newly renovated Big House, complete with luxury boxes and giant brick façades on either side, will open up, signaling a departure from Michigan football as we knew it and an entrance into big-time, money-making college football. The only piece of tradition Michigan Stadium still holds onto is the lack of corporate advertising inside the stadium.

For a while, I resisted the changes. But time has a way of easing those concerns, and now I welcome them with open arms. I’ll always hold dear the days of Schembechler and Lloyd Carr. Yet I can hardly contain myself thinking about the possibilities of getting back to Michigan’s dominating fashion, but doing it in a 21st Century way.

The past couple of seasons have been hard to watch. Whether it was Sam McGuffie getting decapitated against Ohio State or Tate Forcier throwing an interception in overtime against Michigan State or the defense failing to stop, well, anyone, the past two seasons have been abysmal. 2010 presents a seemingly make-or-break year for Rodriguez, so having the usual suspects on the schedule (Notre Dame and a couple of cupcakes) is a welcome sign. Connecticut won’t be a push-over, but at least it’s not a power-conference rival opening the season.

Once we get back to the level of play one would expect from the nation’s all-time winningest team, whether it’s with Rodriguez at the helm or not (but hopefully with), I’d like to see the schedule take a departure from the usual Mid-American Conference cupcake feast to the meat and potatoes of the college football land.

So, I present to you, my wish-list for future non-conference opponents.

1. Florida

This shouldn’t come as any surprise. Michigan fans despise Florida. The Big Ten despises Florida. The Southeastern Conference (SEC) stops at nothing to brag, rightfully or wrongfully about its college football supremacy in the past decade.

Head-to-head in bowl games since 2000, the SEC has won 15 and the Big Ten has won 14. However, head-to-head in BCS games, the SEC has a 3-1 advantage, and the SEC has claimed five national championships to the Big Ten’s one.

Michigan has done its part, going 5-1 against the SEC during that time, including 2-0 against Florida, both in the Gators’ back yard. In fact, Michigan has always done well against the SEC, compiling an all-time record of 20-5-1. Ten of those wins were against Vanderbilt, and Michigan has never played LSU or Mississippi State. The only school that has a winning record over Michigan is Tennessee, which pounded Michigan 45-17 in the 2002 Citrus Bowl.

Just think: Florida traveling to Ann Arbor or Michigan playing in the Swamp in a September showdown. Urban Meyer vs. Rich Rodriguez (assuming Rodriguez doesn’t get fired and Meyer doesn’t actually retire). The mastermind of the modern spread-option offense against the guy who’s used a version of it to claim two of the past four national championships. SEC speed vs…..SEC speed in the Big Ten?

It has all the makings of a huge game and Brandon should make it happen as soon as possible. The only problem? It would take a lot of convincing to get Florida to travel outside of the south for a non-conference game.

Since 1990, Florida has played 68 non-conference games. All but one of those were in the state of Florida and 56 of the 68 were home games. Of the 12 road games, 10 were at Florida State, one was at Miami, and the lone out-of-state game was a loss at Syracuse in 1991.

In other words, Florida hasn’t traveled more than 337 miles for an out-of-conference game in 19 years.

Getting Athletics Director Jeremy Foley to agree to travel the 1,033 miles to Ann Arbor will likely require Brandon to agree to travel to Gainesville twice, give up his first-born, and supply Foley a lifetime of free pizza.

But here’s to hoping.

2. LSU

Michigan has never played LSU, but with the recent success of the Tigers, and former Michigan player and assistant coach Les Miles at the helm, a match-up would be compelling.

As described above, Michigan has enjoyed incredible success against teams from the SEC, but this would be the first-ever game between the schools.

Imagine the possibilities: Miles, who was the undeniable favorite amongst Michigan fans and alums to replace Lloyd Carr, returning to the Big House, not as the coach, but as the opponent.

Or Michigan traveling to Baton Rouge for a night game in Death Valley, where LSU is 209-59-4 in night games since 1960.

This is probably more likely to happen than Florida, as LSU is willing to travel outside of its friendly confines.

The Tigers visited Washington last year, Arizona State in 2005, Arizona in 2003, Virginia Tech in 2002 and Notre Dame in 1998.

A home-and-home with Michigan would be compelling, whether Miles was still at LSU, or Michigan fired Rodriguez and hired Miles to replace him.

3. Oklahoma

The Sooners get the nod for the third spot on my wish list because they are one of the few schools that Michigan has a losing record against.

The teams’ only meeting was the 1975 Orange Bowl. The Barry Switzer-led Sooners beat Michigan 14-6 to claim a second straight national championship.

Michigan hasn’t fared as well against the Big 12 in the past couple of decades as it has against the SEC, going 2-4 since 1990.

Oklahoma has been one of the best teams of the past decade, playing in four of the past 10 championship games and winning the national title in 2000, and featuring two of the past seven Heisman Trophy winners.

Bringing the Sooners to Ann Arbor would be a huge draw as the all-time winningest college football team takes on the fourth-best in an early-season matchup.

It would be the spread-n-shred against traditional power football and certainly have national championship ramifications for the winner.

4. Virginia Tech

Virginia Tech has also been one of the best programs of the past decade and, like LSU, is an opponent that Michigan has never faced.

Tech doesn’t have the history of the others, but may represent college football in the 21st century more than any other team in the nation.

It was Virginia Tech that showed what the spread offense can do, when quarterback Michael Vick led the Hokies to the BCS National Championship game in 1999.

Coach Frank Beamer’s team has been one of the most exciting teams to watch with dominating special teams, and never shying away from playing big-time opponents.

Last season, Virginia Tech played Alabama and Nebraska in the non-conference schedule. In 2007, Tech traveled to LSU and in 2004, it hosted No. 1 USC.

A home-and-home would make sense regionally, because it wouldn’t be too far of a travel for either team. Night games in Blacksburg have dominated ESPN the past few years, and seeing the blue jerseys and winged helmets contrasted with the all-white with maroon trim of Virginia Tech would certainly be a sight worth seeing.

5. Miami

Miami has been down the past couple of seasons, but like Michigan, seem to be back on the upswing. The teams have faced off twice before, both in the 1980s during the Jimmy Johnson era.

In 1988, No.1 Miami needed an onside kick and a two-point conversion in the final six minutes to cap a 17-point comeback, beating Michigan 31-30 in the Big House.

Michigan won the first meeting 22-14 in 1984.

Rodriguez has recruited the Miami area heavily since taking over in 2008, so the game would make sense recruiting-wise for Michigan as many of the players would be able to play in front of friends and family when Michigan returns the trip.

Eight players on Michigan’s roster this spring are from south Florida and three more arrive in time for fall camp.

Miami puts as many players into the NFL as any school in the country and a matchup between the two schools would surely be an instant classic.

Honorable Mention:

1. West Virginia – But only if Rodriguez is still the coach at Michigan and leads them back to challenging for national championships.

2. Texas – The only meeting between the two was the 2006 Rose Bowl, which Texas won on a last-second field goal. The only reason I don’t have this higher on my list is because Ohio State just had a home-and-home with Texas.

3. Alabama – Nick Saban has built Alabama into a powerhouse in just a couple of years. The reigning national champs would make for a great matchup with Michigan. Michigan was 3-2 against Saban when he was head coach at Michigan State.

4. Florida State – Like Miami, Michigan and Florida State have met just twice, with each side winning once. In 1991, FSU rolled up 51 points, the most ever by an opponent in the Big House at the time. With FSU under the new leadership of Jimbo Fisher, a home-and-home with Michigan should be scheduled soon.

5. Stanford – Stanford is on its way up thanks to head coach and former Michigan quarterback Jim Harbaugh. The programs have met 10 times before, with Michigan winning six, but the last time was in 1976. Like West Virginia, I only like this matchup if Harbaugh is still at Stanford.

6. Boise State – This one is more for the novelty. Boise State has been the “Cinderella” of the decade, knocking off Oklahoma in the 2007 Fiesta Bowl and finishing 14-0 last season. Many have complained that BSU doesn’t play anybody out-of-conference, so if Michigan was willing, the Broncos would listen. Plus, the winged helmet on the smurf turf would be fun.

It’s unlikely that any of these out-of-conference matchups will happen at least until Michigan’s rivalry with Notre Dame takes a two-year break in 2018-19, but it would be fun to see, especially once Michigan gets back to being, well, Michigan.

In the meantime, however, I’m happy with a diet of cupcakes to help the young Wolverines grow up.

There was a time when Michigan-Ohio State was all you heard about during the third week of November. It was all over the airwaves, all over the television, all over the newspapers, and all over the Internet.

That time was not a long, long time ago. In fact, just three years ago, it was called “the game of the century” when both teams entered undefeated, ranked first and second in the nation.

This week, however, the game has been somewhat of an afterthought.

Headlines read “Once-mighty Michigan-Ohio State rivalry now just another game,” or “Ohio State-Michigan series has slipped in stature.”

Sportscenter teased a segment of Kirk Herbstreit talking about the weekend’s big Oregon-Arizona match-up.

Staring a sixth straight loss to Ohio State and a second straight losing season in the eye, Michigan hasn’t done its part to dispel the notion that the rivalry is dead.

Cheer up, Michigan fans. And lighten up, national media. Remember that things were the other way around last decade when Michigan went 10-2-1 against Ohio State from 1988-2000.

Ohio State wasn’t exactly in the doldrums that Michigan finds itself in at the moment, but maybe that makes Michigan’s run all that more impressive.

But it doesn’t mean the rivalry isn’t as big as it used to be.

Whether Michigan has the right coach or not, Michigan fans better show up loud and in full support of him and the rest of the boys in maize and blue on Saturday. Because there’s a group of Michigan men in Ann Arbor this weekend that know a thing or two about pulling off a major upset.

In 1969, Bo Schembechler’s first season as Michigan head coach, Michigan hosted the undefeated, first-ranked Buckeyes, led by Woody Hayes.

Many people regarded that team as the greatest college football team of all time. It had pounded Michigan 50-14 the year before in Columbus and Hayes’ crew had a 22-game winning streak riding into the ’69 meeting.

Michigan had struggled through six losing seasons in the last 10 years and brought Schembechler in from Miami of Ohio.

Bo was an outsider. He brought a tough love coaching style to Ann Arbor in the summer of ‘69 and vowed to have the most well-coached, well-conditioned team in the Big Ten. Many players jumped ship and left the team, because they were used to the old way of doing things. But Bo issued a challenge: Those who stay will be champions.

In that first season, Bo’s squad got off to a 3-2 start, including a loss to its other rival, Michigan State. It entered the Ohio State game a 17-point underdog.

In the previous year’s meeting, when Ohio State scored its final touchdown, Woody Hayes went for two. When asked why, he replied, “Because I couldn’t go for three.”

Battered and humiliated, Michigan was hungry for revenge. And on that fateful November day in 1969, Michigan got its revenge and ushered in a new era of Michigan football. An era that spanned 40 years and ended last season when Lloyd Carr retired and Michigan athletic director Bill Martin hired the first man from outside the program since the man who began that era.

Rich Rodriguez, just like Schembechler, was brought in to resurrect a stagnant Michigan football program.

Rodriguez didn’t coach under Jim Tressel at Ohio State as Schembechler coached under Hayes, but he brought a high-octane offensive system to Ann Arbor that promises a new and exciting brand of Michigan football.

Somewhere in the past two years since Rodriguez was hired, he got portrayed as an outsider who doesn’t care for the Michigan tradition and doesn’t embrace its rivalries the way Bo and Woody and Carr and Tressel did.

Yet this week, the members of that 1969 team that pulled off that big win will be in attendance to help motivate the present squad.

Earlier in the week, leading up to the biggest game of the year, a sound was heard emanating from the practice field. That was the sound of legendary Michigan broadcaster Bob Ufer.

It was Ufer who wrote the following poem in the aftermath of that game 40 years ago from Sunday.

“They came to bury Michigan, all wrapped in Maize and Blue
The words were said, the prayers were read and everybody cried.
But when they closed the coffin, there was someone else inside!
The Bucks came to bury the Wolverines, but Michigan wasn’t dead!
And when the game was over, it was someone else instead!
Twenty-two Michigan Wolverines put on the gloves of grey,
And as Rivelli played ‘The Victors’, they laid Woody Hayes away!”

Those who stayed in 1969 became champions, just as Bo said. They won the Big Ten championship and represented the conference in the Rose Bowl.

Rodriguez’s entrance to Michigan was eerily similar to Bo’s, in a 21st Century kind of way. Players left because they couldn’t handle the demands. But some stayed. Good players stayed and endured the worst season in over 40 years. And they came back again for a senior season to try to right the ship.

Senior defensive end Brandon Graham will most likely be a first round draft pick next April, but on this day, all he cares about is capturing the magic of that ‘69 team. He spoke to the team during the week in a players only meeting. You can bet he has these young guys fired up and ready to play.

Can Graham will Michigan to a win on Saturday and give Rodriguez his signature win? The one that ends this two year run of futility and truly ushers in the new ear of Michigan football? No one gives Michigan a chance, but it’s time to add the intrigue back to the rivalry.

The boys in the winged helmets will certainly be juiced up and ready to go. The inspiration will be there, but the problems that have plagued Michigan all season won’t go away.

Michigan must play a perfect game to win. It must hope the Terrelle Pryor from the Purdue game shows up instead of the Pryor from every game since.

If Ohio State plays anywhere near perfect, it will win easily, just like it handled Penn State and Iowa.

I’ll split the difference and say that emotion and inspiration will carry Michigan early and Michigan will hang around much of the game, but fade down the stretch.

Prediction: Ohio State 26 – Michigan 17

But hey, they said the same thing 40 years ago, so I hope I’m wrong.

With the calls for Rich Rodriguez’s firing growing louder each week, and the threat of a second straight losing season, Michigan enters Ohio State week in what could be the most important game for the Wolverines in the history of the rivalry.

Sure, there was the “Game of the Century” in 2006 when both teams entered the game undefeated and ranked 1st and 2nd in the nation.

Sure, there was 1997 when Michigan needed a win to advance to the National Championship game.

Sure, there was the huge upset of No. 1 Ohio State in Bo Schembechler’s first season in 1969, a year after Ohio State drubbed Michigan 50-14, to claim a share of the Big Ten title.

But Saturday could be more important for the future of the Michigan football program than any of those.

No, there isn’t a Big Ten title on the line or a BCS berth to play for.

But for a young Michigan team struggling to find its identity in the midst of the most dramatic change to the program in decades, a win over Ohio State on Saturday would have huge ramifications for the future.

First and foremost, a win would make Michigan bowl-eligible. Though not guaranteed a bowl invitation with a 6-6 record, Michigan is almost certain to get one given its prestige and fan following.

Even if it is the Little Caesars Pizza Bowl (formerly known as the Motor City Bowl) it would be a tremendous boost to the program for the extra practice time and national exposure.

The regular season ends this Saturday, Nov. 22. The Little Caesars Pizza Bowl is held on Dec. 26, so Michigan would essentially have an extra month of practice. For a young and developing team, that extra practice time would be invaluable.

Many of the freshmen only had a month of practice time before the season started. Tate Forcier and a few others left high school early to enroll in January and participate in spring practice.

But most, including quarterback Denard Robinson, arrived just in time for fall camp on Aug. 10 and opened the season against Western Michigan on Sept. 5.

During the season, there isn’t much the team can work on as it prepares for each opponent week-to-week. Much of Rodriguez’s system was installed in fall practice to get ready for the season.

During game weeks, the practices are spent working on getting ready for that week’s opponent and fine-tuning certain details. Various players miss practices every week because of injury, stinting their learning ability and practice time.

New wrinkles may be installed or specific plays that the coaching staff thinks can exploit the opponent can be put in, but the vast majority of what the players learn (the schemes, the playbook, the fundamentals) is learned during fall practice.

That’s why many times a team can look quite different in a bowl game than it did during the regular season, because that month of practice serves as another fall camp.

Injured players get healthy, new plays and schemes are installed and practiced until they become second nature, and confidence is gained while the losses of the season are forgotten.

Look no further than Michigan in 2007, for example. The team, in Lloyd Carr’s final season, sputtered to an 8-4 regular season record. It endured a humiliating home loss to Appalachian State, a blowout at the hands of Oregon, and got shut down by Ohio State.

In the bowl game, the Capital One Bowl against a 9-3 Florida team led by Heisman Trophy winner Tim Tebow, Michigan showed a much more dynamic and diverse offense than it had all season, winning 41-35.

It left Michigan fans wondering what could have been had Michigan played that way all season and also excited about the future of that style of offense once Rodriguez was hired.

And while Rodriguez’s offense has shown great promise and flashes of brilliance at times this season, it’s still plagued by inexperience.

A bowl game and the extra month of practice time would do wonders for this young and developing team.

In addition to the extra practice time, making it to a bowl game will give Michigan exposure on a national stage during the holidays at a time when everybody is watching, and a chance to finish on a high note heading into the off-season.

Nobody wants to endure eight months of misery like what followed Michigan’s 3-9 season a year ago. By finishing the season with a win over Ohio State and a bowl game, Michigan fans will be excited about 2010, and the players will be confident heading into the off-season.

The second reason Saturday’s game is so important is that beating Ohio State would help with recruiting. Michigan has quite a few visitors coming to Ann Arbor for official visits.

A chance to see Michigan beat its major rival in the Big House on the final week of the season would go a long way toward helping a recruit tip the scales in Michigan’s favor.

Eight of Michigan’s 24 commitments in the 2007 class were in attendance for the Michigan-Ohio State game in the Big House that year.

And while Michigan didn’t win that game, it wasn’t quite in the dire situation it is in now with a need for talent, especially on the defensive side of the ball.

If Michigan lays an egg against Ohio State and boos rain down from the stands, the attending recruits won’t have as good an experience as if Michigan pulls off the big win.

Some of the visitors expected to be in attendance on Saturday include: Chula Vista, Calif. four-star linebacker/safety Tony Jefferson; Pittsburgh four-star cornerback Cullen Christian; Jacksonville, Fla., four-star safety Rashad Knight; Detroit four-star cornerback Dior Mathis; and Eagle Lake, Fla., four-star safety/linebacker Marvin Robinson.

Robinson is already committed to Michigan, but has talked in the past few months about visiting other schools. A big win and a great experience on Saturday could help solidify his commitment.

Jefferson is currently committed to UCLA, and is visiting Florida next weekend, so showing him what it’s like to beat Ohio State in the Big House could go a long way toward stealing him.

Christian is also a prized recruit, since he’s a cornerback, a position Michigan really needs to fill, due to the dismissal of Boubacar Cissoko and possible departure of Donovan Warren to the NFL.

He has already visited UCLA and West Virginia (and possibly Pittsburgh), so Michigan has a chance wrap up his commitment with a great showing on Saturday.

Michigan needs to make this weekend special with a glimpse of what the future holds for the program and show these kids that despite the recent struggles, the program is heading in the right direction.

The third reason a win over Ohio State on Saturday would be huge for Michigan is for the support of Rodriguez and a reward for the senior class.

A win won’t completely erase the anti-Rodriguez sentiment, but it will at least quiet down until next season and win back some of those who have turned against him.

His 8-15 overall record and 3-12 Big Ten record includes just one win over Michigan’s big three rivals (and that was Notre Dame this season).

That stat alone has caused much of the friction among Michigan fans, since one of their main charges against Carr was that he couldn’t beat Ohio State once Jim Tressel arrived in Columbus in 2001.

Winning on Saturday would make Rodriguez 2-4 in that category, but more importantly, give Michigan its first win over the Buckeyes since 2003.

In addition to helping quell the Rodriguez detractors, a win would give the senior class its first win over Ohio State.

Guys like Brandon Minor, Carlos Brown, Brandon Graham, Stevie Brown, Greg Mathews, and Zoltan Mesko, who hung around through the coaching change, deserve a big win to cap off their careers.

Some of them (Graham and Mesko, at least) have bright futures ahead of them in the NFL and have played hard without complaining all season, despite not being Rodriguez’s recruits.

While “deserve” might not be the right word, since nothing in life is deserved, it would be a major disappointment for those guys to go their entire career without beating Ohio State.

A loss would end Michigan’s season at 5-7 (its second straight losing season) and give Ohio State its sixth straight victory in the rivalry.

It would send Michigan home for the holidays and keep the senior class winless against the Buckeyes.

It would leave feelings of despair and depression among Michigan fans worldwide until next fall.

It could prevent some highly-touted and much-needed recruits from choosing to play football at Michigan, and therefore, stunting the growth process even further.

So while many of the previous 105 games in the Michigan-Ohio State rivalry have featured higher stakes in terms of championships, this Saturday’s game could be the most important game in the history of the rivalry for Michigan.

So let’s hope that everyone is all in for Rodriguez and the senior class when toe meets leather at high noon on Saturday.

Michigan traveled to Champaign, Ill. on Halloween looking to become bowl eligible, but instead came away with its second straight 25-point loss.

After building a 13-7 halftime lead, Michigan took the opening drive of the second half down to the Illinois 1-yard line. But four straight runs were unable to crack the end zone and Illinois took captured the momentum, and the game, scoring 31 unanswered points en route to a 38-13 victory.

Michigan looked like a kid that was trick-or-treating house-to-house, filling his bag of candy but then got beat up by the kid down the street and his bag of candy stolen.

For the second week in a row, Michigan looked uninspired and somewhat lost – far more so than a team should nine games into the season.

In the wake of the loss, and looking ahead to the final three games of the season, there are some questions that need to be answered.

Please note that I am still confident in Rich Rodriguez, and I’m not at all calling for his head after less than two seasons. I think he needs to be given time to build his team. I do have some questions, however.

1. Why can’t the defense stop the spread option?

This was a huge problem under Lloyd Carr. His defenses could defend the standard pro-style offense with the pocket-passing quarterback just fine, but when facing mobile quarterbacks, they looked lost.

Troy Smith, Vince Young, Dennis Dixon, and Appalachian State’s Armanti Edwards are still giving Michigan fans nightmares.

Much of the reason Michigan athletic director Bill Martin went out and got Rich Rodriguez two years ago was to change the stagnant culture of Michigan football.

The four and five loss seasons were getting old. The slow defense that broke down every time it faced a faster offense needed a change.

So why are we still having trouble defending it?

Make no mistake about it; this defense is dangerously thin. Only 58 percent of the defensive commitments from the past five years are still on the team. Fifty-eight percent!

That’s certainly not a recipe for success.

Twenty defensive commitments are no longer on the team due to numerous factors: graduation (four), leaving early for the NFL (one), leaving the team (13), and not qualifying (two).

Until Rodriguez is able to bring in a couple more classes, this defense should continue to struggle, simply because of lack of depth.

But depth aside, why did the defense struggle so much to defend Darryl Clark last week and Juice Williams this week when it goes up against a similar offense in practice every week?

Rodriguez is the father of the spread-option offense, so he should know how to defend it.
Today, it wasn’t just a mistake here and there; the defense looked completely lost out there. Every time Williams ran a zone read, the same play that is the staple of the Michigan offense, everybody crashed down on the same guy, which usually tended to be the one without the ball.

Illinois had seven rushes of 20 yards or more, three of them going for touchdowns.

I have to believe that this will improve over time when Rodriguez gets more defensive recruits and more speed into the system, but it’s frustrating that it hasn’t improved at all.
2. Why wasn’t Brandon Minor on the field for the goal line set at the beginning of the third quarter?

Minor is the bigger power back, while Carlos Brown is a bit quicker. Yet it was Brown who got the carries on first, second, and third down from inside the one-yard line.

Minor came in and got the carry on fourth down, and was stopped just short of the goal line.

I realize he still has a nagging ankle injury, but if he was healthy enough to come in on fourth down, why wasn’t he in there for the first three plays?

3. Why didn’t Rodriguez use a time out just before the half?

Michigan had just kicked a field goal to take a 13-7 lead, and then forced an Illinois three-and-out. Williams was sacked at the Illinois 24-yard line with about a minute left, but instead of using his second timeout, Rodriguez let the clock run before Illinois called timeout with 27 seconds left.

A good punt and no return left Michigan with the ball at its own 11, and it subsequently took a knee, seemingly happy to go into the locker room with a six point lead.

But why not take a time out with a minute left and give your offense another chance to score before the half?

I would have expected Carr to take the conservative route and take it into the half, but not Rodriguez, especially with two timeouts left.

The only reason I can think of is that he wasn’t comfortable with punt return-man Junior Hemingway’s ability to catch the ball.

Turning it over in that situation would have given Illinois a great chance to take the lead and the momentum into the locker room.

But that’s a chance he should have taken, in my opinion.

4. Why has the team quit the past two weeks?

In Michigan’s first two losses, against Michigan State and Iowa, the team fought for the whole 60 minutes. It came back to force overtime against Michigan State and came within two of undefeated Iowa.

But last week against Penn State and this week against Illinois, it seemed to just give up once things started going bad.

The only defensive player that played every down 100 percent was senior defensive end Brandon Graham, and that’s going to make him a great NFL player. He finished with four tackles (one-and-a-half for loss), a sack, and a blocked punt.

The rest of the defense didn’t play inspired at all.

Maybe it’s the fact that the offense puts it in bad situations with turnovers, but when you’re playing college football, it’s your job to give it your all every time. And that effort was not there in the second half.

5. Is Rodriguez too hard on the players and coaches?

One of the common scenes on the sidelines this season and last has been Rodriguez chewing out his players and coaches after a mistake.

Now, I know many people will say that they should grow up and take it, but I seriously have to wonder if his demeanor has an impact on how the team plays.

I don’t have any data on it, but it seems that whenever Rodriguez goes off on a player, it has a negative effect on his play.

I’m all for coaches yelling; it’s what they do. But for a young team like this, that is still trying to grow and learn the system, maybe yelling in their face isn’t the right way to get your point across.

It’s something to think about, but I’m pretty sure Rodriguez isn’t going to change his coaching style, so the players are going to need to adjust.

So where does Michigan go from here?

It needs one more win to be bowl eligible, and two to be assured of a bowl game.

Next week, Michigan hosts Purdue, which is probably the last winnable game left on the schedule if the team continues to play like this.

The following week, Michigan travels to Wisconsin to play a team that just throttled Purdue 37-0.  That game will be as tough as any game Michigan has played all season.

Finally, Michigan hosts Ohio State in a game that very well could salvage the season. However, Ohio State’s quarterback, Terrelle Pryor, is the same type of mobile quarterback that Michigan can’t defend.

The team needs to get its confidence back so it can finish the season strong and get back to a bowl game. Otherwise, it’s going to be another long off-season filled with second-guessing and more anti-Rodriguez sentiment.

The last time Michigan played a game on Halloween, it survived a scare from Minnesota in the Metrodome in 1998, winning 15-10, thanks in part to career days by quarterback Tom Brady and receiver Tai Streets.

This time, 11 years later, Michigan is looking for its first Big Ten win in five weeks, and Rich Rodriguez’s first Big Ten win in October as Michigan head coach.

Thankfully, the opponent is Illinois, which isn’t scaring anybody this season.

Ron Zook’s squad has won just one game this season, over Illinois State, and ranks last in the conference in scoring offense (16.1 points per game) and scoring defense (27.7 ppg).

Quarterback Juice Williams was supposed to blossom into a star in this, his senior season, but instead ranks last in the Big Ten in passing efficiency.

Williams has thrown for just 963 yards this season with four touchdowns and five interceptions, while rushing for just 277 yards (3.1 yards per carry) and two touchdowns.

He’s been so disappointing that Zook is planning to rotate redshirt freshman Jacob Charest into the game.

“Everybody says they don’t want to be a two-quarterback system, and I’d be another one to say that,” Zook said on Tuesday. “But a lot of people do it and a lot of people have success with it. I think the thing we’re trying to do, just like everyone else, is to do the thing that’s best for us and what gives us the best opportunity to win.”

Charest got his first collegiate action last week against Purdue, completing four of eight passes for 52 yards.

While Charest isn’t a huge threat to Michigan himself, as a traditional drop-back passer, the combination of Charest and Williams could be the spark Illinois needs to even the playing field.

If Illinois is able to keep the struggling and injury-plagued Michigan defense on its heels with the quarterback rotation, it could be a long day for Michigan.

So that brings me to my first key of the game for Michigan:

Exercise the demons

Even though Williams is struggling this season, he had a monster game in Ann Arbor last season. He dominated the Michigan defense, throwing for 310 yards and two touchdowns and rushing for 121 yards and two more en route to a 45-20 win.

In the final few years of the Lloyd Carr regime, mobile quarterbacks were a thorn in the side. That should change under Rodriguez eventually, but not quite yet.

The Michigan defense has been tough up front, but the linebacker and secondary play have been poor all season, with the exception of junior Donovan Warren.

Illinois also has perhaps the best all-around receiver in the conference, in junior Arrelious Benn. Although Benn has just 25 catches for 287 yards and no touchdowns this season, the Michigan secondary will have to be careful not to give up the big play.

Big plays have hurt Michigan all season. The defense has given up seven scoring plays of 20 yards or more, including a 60-yard touchdown pass last week against Penn State.

In last season’s match-up, Williams connected on touchdowns passes of 57 and 77 yards.

Can Michigan’s defense finally come together for the final four games of the season? It’s a tall task, especially against a quarterback it hasn’t stopped in three years, but maybe this is the game it finally steps up.

More trick, less treat

In five wins, Michigan is even in turnovers, giving away seven, while taking away seven. But in three losses, Michigan has treated its opponents to 11, while gaining just four.

Michigan ranks last in the Big Ten in turnover margin at minus seven.

In its two biggest games, against Iowa and Penn State, Michigan coughed the ball up nine times. It’s nearly impossible to win against anybody when you do that.

Illinois isn’t much better, having a minus-five turnover margin in Big Ten games, but it really all comes down to Michigan taking care of the ball.

Suck the blood out of the Illinois rush defense

Michigan has the best rushing offense in the Big Ten, at 219.4 yards per game, while Illinois’ defense ranks worst in the conference, giving up 185.3 yards per game on the ground.

Michigan was able to run fairly effectively against Iowa and Penn State, but those defenses were much better took advantage of Michigan’s turnovers.

Seniors Brandon Minor and Carlos Brown should be healthy and ready to go, and need to feast on the Illini defense more often than in past games.

Minor averages just over 11 carries per game and Brown just over seven. The duo needs to get the ball more often to punish the weak Illinois rush defense and cut down on the potential mistakes made by freshmen quarterbacks Tate Forcier and Denard Robinson.

Michigan has to win this game to have any chance at making this a successful season. It currently stands at 5-3, and a win tomorrow would make it bowl eligible, an important step in the growth process of Rodriguez’s system.

Seven wins would be ideal, but losing this game would make a winning season hard to reach, with a visit to Wisconsin and home games against Purdue and Ohio State to finish the season.

Memorial Stadium in Champaign will surely be ready for a Halloween game and a chance to knock off Michigan for the second straight year, but Michigan should be able to run the ball well enough to score some points and control the clock.

Minor and Brown will combine for three touchdowns in leading Michigan to a win.

Prediction: Michigan 31 – Illinois 20

Michigan had a chance on Saturday to prove the doubters wrong – to shut up the critics of head coach Rich Rodriguez. Instead, its 35-10 loss to Penn State served only to ramp up the criticism and turn up the heat on Rodriguez.

A quick look around the Internet reveals some very negatively shaded articles about Michigan football. Headlines like, “Who’s to Blame For Michigan’s Downfall?” or “A Blown Opportunity for Rodriguez” or “Safety Responsible for UM Collapse” or “Penn State Dominates Reeling Michigan Football Team,” show either a misconception about this team or a clear bias against its coach.

Let’s all take a deep breath and realize that this team was not expected to challenge for the Big Ten this season. Most knowledgeable Michigan fans predicted a 7-5 finish. Some of the more optimistic fans said 8-4.
There is no downfall, no collapse, no blown opportunity, and this team isn’t reeling. It’s growing.

After a 4-0 start that included a come-from-behind win over rival Notre Dame, the expectations were immediately, and wrongly, raised. Even after taking Michigan State to overtime and Iowa to the brink, many unfairly praised this team as much farther along than it really is.

But what team can really succeed with a true freshman quarterback?

Some might point to USC and Matt Barkley, but that’s a team that has arguably the best offensive line in the country, and is loaded on the defensive side of the ball.

Some might even say Michigan’s own Chad Henne in 2004, but he had a senior Braylon Edwards to throw to. Edwards caught a school record 97 passes that season for 1,330 yards and 15 touchdowns. Michigan doesn’t have a down-field receiving threat this season.

I’m not saying that a team can’t succeed with a freshman quarterback, but it has to have outstanding play elsewhere to allow for the growing pains. Michigan doesn’t have that this season.

I’m excited for the future of Tate Forcier and Denard Robinson, but we have to be patient. Highlight-reel runs and game-winning drives aren’t going to happen every game.

We knew entering the season that Rodriguez’s offense was going to be a little bit better than last season, but still not where it will be once he gets all the athletes he needs to run it.

The addition of Forcier and Robinson helped take an offense that was virtually non-existent last season to one of the highest scoring offenses in the Big Ten this season.

Just think about how good it will be when these players have another year or two in the offense, and another recruiting class or two comes in.

Defensively, the struggles have been very hard to watch this season, especially since it doesn’t seem to be making much progress throughout the season.

Much has been made about its inability to make big stops, but defensive coordinator Greg Robinson is the third different coordinator in three years, which makes it hard to develop chemistry and consistency.

The defense will remain a frustration for the rest of this season, but should improve along with the offense in the coming years when Rodriguez gets more speed and talent to fit in.

The most important thing for Michigan fans is to not lose faith in the system and growth. We were griping for Lloyd Carr to be replaced because of 8-4 or 7-5 seasons when his teams consistently underachieved. Yet we’re all up in arms when this year’s team, in the second year of a complete overhaul, is on its way to a probable 7-5 season.

Look at it this way: in the last seven years of the Carr era, the offense averaged 30.4 points per game and 400.1 yards of total offense per game. The defense gave up 19.6 points per game and 331.5 total yards per game.

This season, Michigan’s offense is averaging 33.9 points per game and 404.5 total yards, while the defense is giving up 23.5 points and 367.4 yards per game.

Essentially, this year’s offense is better than the seven-year average in points and total offense, while the defense isn’t far behind the seven-year average. This is the best offense we’ve seen in the maize and blue since 2003.

And it’s still considered a rebuilding year!

Imagine what the future holds when Carr’s players move on and Rodriguez’s players step in. That’s not a knock on Carr at all – it’s just a completely different system that needs different types of players.

So while the big loss to Penn State hurts, it was just one game, and Penn State is a very good team. The first four games of the season spoiled us, but we need to keep things in perspective.

Michigan travels to Illinois this weekend to face a 1-6 team, and then hosts a dangerous Purdue team the following week.

While no game is a lock, Illinois should be a win to get Michigan bowl-eligible, and Purdue is also a game Michigan should win.

It should be 7-3 heading into Madison, Wisc., looking to close out the season with an upset over Wisconsin, or Ohio State in the final game.

A 7-5 season is likely, but an upset over Wisconsin or Ohio State would make this team an overachieving one, as opposed to Carr’s underachieving teams that we detested.

Even if Michigan doesn’t pull off an upset, and finishes 7-5, Michigan fans should be content with this season, looking forward to a bowl game and an even more talented and potent team next season.

That’s not exactly easy to swallow – being content with 7-5 – but it’s part of the process and it’s something we have to accept.

The future is certainly bright for Rodriguez and the boys in maize and blue. We just have to be patient and let the process unfold.

Year two of the Rich Rodriguez era at Michigan is just a week away. This is usually about the time of the year that I break out my “Maximum Meechigan” album to let Bob Ufer’s legendary calls of Michigan games of the past fill my mind with visions of “cotton-pickin’, maize-and-blue whirling dervishes” dancing in the end zone, as I prepare for yet another season of Michigan football.

It was Ufer who penned the poem, “Burying Woody Hayes” after the Wolverines’ upset of No. 1 Ohio State 40 years ago. The poem goes like this:

“It was November 22, 1969

that they came to bury Michigan, all dressed in maize and blue;

The words were said, the prayers were read and everybody cried.

But when they closed the coffin, there was someone else inside.

Oh they came to bury Michigan, but Michigan wasn’t dead.

And when the game was over, it was someone else instead.

Eleven Michigan Wolverines put on the gloves of grey,

and as the organ played The Victors, they laid Woody Hayes away.”

I find this poem very similar to what we’re going to see this season from our boys in maize and blue. I’m not saying I think Michigan is going to beat Ohio State, but I think this is going to be the theme of our season. Every opponent is going to circle us on their schedule as a game they can win. This year, as much as any other, Michigan looks beatable on paper.

Coming off a season that resulted in the most losses in school history, and pinning all hopes on a true freshman quarterback, this seems to be the window of opportunity before Rodriguez’s system begins to take hold and terrorize the Big Ten.

However, I think we’re going to see a very fast, well-conditioned and much-improved Michigan team playing with a chip on its shoulder to avoid being put to rest again.

Here’s a game-by-game breakdown of how I see the season playing out:

Sept. 5 – Western Michigan

The Western Michigan Broncos bring a high-powered offense to Ann Arbor, led by senior quarterback, Tim Heller. However, the Broncos’ defense returns just three starters from a year ago, which should be favorable for the initiation of Michigan’s freshmen quarterbacks, Tate Forcier and Denard Robinson.

Western Michigan will try to hand Michigan its third straight season-opening loss, but I think its inexperience on the defensive side will help Michigan’s offense gel.

Prediction: Win

Sept. 12 – Notre Dame

Notre Dame comes to Ann Arbor with an experienced quarterback, Jimmy Clausen, a talented group of receivers, Golden Tate and Michael Floyd, and a boatload of expectations.

Last season’s Hawaii Bowl blowout of Hawaii showed what this offense is capable of and the unit lost virtually nobody.

The defense should be solid, with a switch to the 4-3, and much more speed that last year to accommodate defensive coordinator Jon Tenuta’s blitz-happy style.

I think this game is a toss-up, since Michigan’s offense will have gained some confidence against Western Michigan. Since the game is in Ann Arbor, I think Michigan has the edge.

Prediction: Win

Sept. 19 – Eastern Michigan

Eastern Michigan returns experience at quarterback, Andy Schmitt, and at receiver, Jacory Stone and Tyler Jones, but the team finished 3-9 last season.

New head coach Ron English, a former Michigan defensive coordinator under Lloyd Carr, won’t be able to get the Eagles up to speed in his first season, and Michigan should handle this one pretty easily.

Prediction: Win

Sept. 26 – Indiana

Indiana returns a lot of starters from last season’s 3-9 team. However, those starters don’t bring a lot of stats with them. Quarterback Ben Chappell threw for 1,001 yards, four touchdowns and three interceptions, while the leading returning rusher, Bryan Payton, rushed for just 339 yards and two touchdowns.

Defensively, the Hoosiers will be led by one of the best pass rushers in the Big Ten, senior defensive end Greg Middleton.

This team just won’t have the firepower to beat Michigan for the first time since 1967.

Prediction: Win

Oct. 3 – at Michigan State

Michigan State lost quarterback Brian Hoyer and running back Javon Ringer, but features an experienced defense with eight returning starters, led by junior linebacker Greg Jones.

The Spartans will have every opportunity to get its offense going with opening games against Montana State and Central Michigan, before traveling to Notre Dame and Wisconsin.

If the offense can perform at least above average, it could be a tough day for Michigan’s young quarterbacks in their first road test.

Prediction: Loss

Oct. 10 – at Iowa

Iowa was a big surprise last season, led by running back Shonn Greene, who is now with the New York Jets. The Hawkeyes return a solid quarterback, Ricky Stanzi, as well as a competent a running back Jewel Hampton, who scored seven touchdowns last season.

The defense should be Iowa’s strength, as the unit that ranked 12th in the nation last year returns all of its linebackers and secondary.

Playing a night game in Kinnick Stadium against a tough defense should be too much to overcome for a young Michigan offense.

Prediction: Loss

Oct. 17 – Delaware State

Delaware State returns its entire offensive line and receiving corps, but must replace its quarterback and running back.

Don’t expect an Appalachian State-style upset in this one.

Prediction: Win

Oct. 24 – Penn State

Penn State returns quarterback Daryll Clark, who threw for 2,592 yards, 16 touchdowns and just six interceptions last year. The offense also returns its top two runners, in Evan Royster and Stephfon Green. The key will be replacing receivers Deon Butler, Derrick Williams and Jordan Norwood, but the experience of Clark and the running backs should help ease that process.

The defense returns just four starters, non of which are in the secondary, but by the time the Nittany Lions visit Ann Arbor, the unit will have had plenty of time to get acclimated with an easy schedule.

Prediction: Loss

Oct. 31 – Illinois

Illinois will be lead by quarterback Juice Williams and the Big Ten’s best receiver, Arrelious Benn. The Illini lack a proven running back, though Williams led the team with 719 rushing yards a year ago.

Question marks abound on a defense that lost its top four players from a year ago. Linebacker Martez Wilson had a solid spring and will be the leader this year.

Michigan will bounce back from a loss to Penn State by playing its best game of the year and surprise the Illini on the road.

Prediction: Win

Nov. 7 – Purdue

Only four starters return on the Purdue offense, all offensive linemen. Quarterback Curtis Painter hands over the reigns to Joey Elliott, who has thrown just 49 passes in his career. Keith Smith is the leading receiver with 486 yards and two touchdowns last season, while Frank Halliburton is the top returning rusher with just 37 yards and two touchdowns.

Running back Jaycen Taylor should provide a spark, returning from a knee injury, but the offense won’t have the firepower it has lacked since the days of Drew Brees and Kyle Orton.

Defensively, the secondary was the best in the Big Ten last year, but the rush defense was the worst. Those numbers should even out a little bit, but the unit won’t fare much better.

Prediction: Win

Nov. 14 – at Wisconsin

Wisconsin figures to be much the same as last year’s team, with quarterback Dustin Sherer and tight end Garrett Graham returning to lead the offense. Star running back P.J. Hill is gone, but John Clay ran for 884 yards last season and takes over this year.

The defense should be average, with a strong secondary and an inexperienced front seven. If the line steps up to put pressure on the quarterback, this could be a good unit.

Michigan suffers a letdown in Madison as it looks ahead to Ohio State.

Prediction: Loss

Nov. 21 – Ohio State

Ohio State looks to take its fifth straight Big Ten title and is led by sophomore quarterback Terrelle Pryor. From all reports, his arm has improved, and combined with his quickness, he could be a scary player to defend.

The Buckeyes’ top receivers and running backs are gone, but a stable of new players look to fill in. Sophomore Daniel Herron is expected to break out.

The defense should be a very solid unit, headed by a strong front line in Thaddeus Gibson, Cameron Heyward and Doug Worthington. A pair of three-year starters fills the secondary.

If Pryor can stay healthy and be more consistent than he was last year. I think Michigan is still a year away from being able to beat the Buckeyes.Loss

Prediction: Loss

Overall, I foresee Michigan wining the games it should win and losing the games it’s expected to lose, with a pair of surprising wins over Notre Dame and Illinois for a 7-5 record. The offense will be improved, but still young and a year away from making noise.

The defense will solidify under new defensive coordinator Greg Robinson and become a solid unit, headed by its front seven.

They will all come to bury Michigan while they are down, but when all is said and over, a winning record and a return to a bowl game will take a lot of heat off of Rich Rodriguez and provide great expectations heading into 2010.

*I will provide a more in-depth game preview and prediction in the middle of each week. These preseason predictions are subject to change in my weekly previews as the season goes on, depending on performance and injuries.

It seems that the popular thing to do these days among college football fans is to rip on Rich Rodriguez and the recent struggles of the University of Michigan football program.

For the better part of 40 years, Michigan was a symbol of stability, consistency and excellence.

Since Bo Schembechler was hired in 1969, only three coaches have graced the Michigan sidelines prior to Rodriguez’ arrival last season.

Those three, Schembechler, Gary Moeller and Lloyd Carr, followed the same model of football—a punishing running game, an efficient passing game and a strong defense—to amass an overall winning percentage of 76.8, including 80.9 percent in the Big Ten conference. Throw in 21 Big Ten championships, 35 straight bowl games and a National Championship, and one can see why opposing fans are so quick to pile it on after one bad season.

Rodriguez came to Ann Arbor amidst a firestorm following Carr’s retirement in 2008 and Michigan fans and alumni were torn. Most had wanted former Wolverine offensive lineman and assistant coach, and current LSU head coach, Les Miles to replace Carr. Others wanted Rutgers head coach Greg Schiano or someone promoted from internally. A few wanted Iowa head coach Kirk Ferentz. All of those candidates seemed to fit the mold of the previous 40 years.

Yet it was Rodriguez who landed in Ann Arbor, spurning his alma mater, West Virginia University, and bringing with him an offense as unfamiliar to Michigan football as staying home for the holidays.

Some of the Michigan fan base was skeptical of an outsider with a wacky offense inheriting its most coveted throne. “What about our tradition?” they asked. “He’s not a Michigan man,” they cried.

When five-star sophomore-to-be quarterback Ryan Mallett transferred to Arkansas and offensive lineman Justin Boren transferred to Ohio State citing an “erosion of family values,” the mob grew louder.

Then came the season. Losses to Utah, Toledo, Purdue and Northwestern, as well as all three rivals resulted in the worst season in 46 years. The first losing season since 1967. The most losses in school history. The end of the longest bowl streak in the nation.

Obviously Rodriguez was the wrong man for the job. His offense can’t hold up in the bruising Big Ten. He’ll be gone in two years. Michigan football is descending into obscurity.

I, however, do not believe the sky is falling. In fact, I’m actually excited about the direction of Michigan football.

Would I like to have avoided a losing season? Absolutely. Would I like to have gone to a 34th consecutive bowl game? You bet. Would I like to have beaten Notre Dame, Michigan State and Ohio State to a pulp? More than anything.

But, to paraphrase the Rolling Stones, you can’t always get what you want.

As much as football fans hate it, especially in these days of immediate gratification, sometimes success requires perseverance through tough times.

With all the success that the Michigan football program has enjoyed in its storied history, it has had a proud tradition of leading the way on the college football landscape. From Fielding Yost’s “point-a-minute” teams and invention of the linebacker position in the early 1900s to Fritz Crisler’s “Mad Magicians” and institution of separate offensive and defensive units in the ‘30s and ‘40s, Michigan has a history of change and innovation.

Historically speaking, the hiring of Rodriguez is nothing new for Michigan football. Bennie Oosterbaan, who coached the Wolverines from 1948-58, was hailed as “the best offensive mind in college football” by Crisler. Many consider Rodriguez one of the top offensive minds in college football today.

It all comes down to a matter of perspective. Last season’s growing pains were not a reflection of Rodriguez’s coaching abilities or the fall of the Michigan football program. They were a result of a complete overhaul from one way of doing things to another.

Take Apple, for example. Throughout the 1980s, Apple Computer, Inc. dominated the computer market until it became outdated and passed up by its competitors.

In need of something new, the company overhauled its image and is now considered by Fortune magazine to be the most admired company in the world. One of its main criticisms during its downslide was its cost, but by enhancing its image and its product, consumers now know they are getting a great and “sexy” product despite the higher cost.

Apple was able to reinvent itself without losing its roots. Likewise, Michigan’s hiring of Rodriguez should be seen as a commitment to reinventing the football program and tapping into its rich tradition of innovation, rather than a departure from “Michigan football.”

Last season was hard to stomach for Michigan fans. Hearing opposing fans laugh in our misery makes it even worse. But despite that, it makes me even more proud to be a Michigan fan.

For my entire life, Michigan has been expected to win nearly every game it played. It was a great, and boastful feeling. Then Ohio State hired Jim Tressel, who has won seven of the eight games he has coached in the rivalry. Then Michigan lost four straight bowl games, including three Rose Bowls. Then, a senior-laden Michigan team lost at home to Appalachian State.

Suddenly, mighty Michigan was no longer feared. It became synonymous with underachieving. It no longer had the upper hand against its most bitter rival. Its leader for the last 13 years retired. A chapter had to be closed, and a new one had to be started.

Enter Rodriguez, an innovator who has had success everywhere he has been. He won 59 percent of his games at NAIA Glenville State in his first true head coaching position, then won 70 percent of his games at West Virginia, including four Big East titles in seven years.

He also coordinated Tulane’s offense to a 12-0 record in 1998, and took a Clemson offense that averaged just 19.9 points and 304 yards per game the year before he arrived to a 9-3 record in 2000, averaging 36 points and 446 yards per game.

The guy knows how to run and offense and he knows how to win. It just takes time.
Instead of big, hulking offensive linemen, he needs smaller, faster linemen. Goodbye Boren, Kurt Wermers, Dann O’Neill, Jeremy Ciulla, Grant DeBenedictis, Brett Gallimore and Alex Mitchell.

Instead of big, tall pro-style wide receivers, he needs small, quick slot-type guys. Goodbye Mario Manningham, Adrian Arrington and Toney Clemons. Hello Terrence Robinson, Martavious Odoms, Roy Roundtree, Teric Jones and Jeremy Gallon.

Most importantly, instead of a tall, pro-style pocket-passing quarterback, he needs fast, shifty spread-option guys. Goodbye Ryan Mallet and Steven Threet. Hello Tate Forcier and Denard Robinson.

Just like that, he’s got the foundation of his offense to develop for the next four or five years along with the subsequent recruiting classes.

Winning with a bunch of freshmen isn’t going to happen overnight. Once they learn and grow in the system, the winning will come.

As much as opposing fans like to call it an excuse, the truth is that it just takes time to overhaul your roster to fit your needs. Sure Rodriguez may have won a couple more games last season by running a “normal” offense, but at what cost? Is it worth preserving a couple of streaks to risk slowing down the reinvention process?

I say no. And that is where the excitement lies. Of course Rodriguez didn’t try to go 3-9 last season, but as the next couple of years play out and we gain more perspective, I am confident that we will look back on that season as a sort of necessary evil.

Just like when you’re building a new house and you can’t wait to move in, I can’t wait for the excitement of the new Michigan football when the renovation is complete. The teams that will be dazzling the Big Ten with lightning-quick backs and receivers, racking up points the way Crisler’s “Mad Magicians” did 62 years ago.

For now though, I’ll keep watching the new Michigan Wolverines take shape and grow. And I’ll find much more delight in watching the team go 7-5 in 2009 than I did when a Michigan team full of NFL talent went 7-5 in 2005.

And you never know, maybe this year’s team will overachieve.