While offenses around the country struggled to shake off the rust of the offseason, Michigan sophomore quarterback Denard Robinson led touchdowns on three of his first four possessions en route to a 30-10 win over UConn.

Robinson, who got the start over last year’s starter, Tate Forcier, looked poised and confident all afternoon. The sophomore rushed 29 times for 197 yards and a touchdown and completed 19-of-22 passes for 186 yards and a touchdown against an experienced Husky defense.

He became just the fifth quarterback in the past five years to exceed 185 yards both on the ground and through the air, and if that’s an omen of what’s to come, things are certainly looking up in Ann Arbor. The others were West Virginia’s Pat White (under Rich Rodriguez), Texas’ Vince Young (twice), Missouri’s Brad Smith, and UAB’s Joseph Webb.

So is the performance against UConn what we can expect from the offense all season? Let’s not get too far ahead of ourselves.

It was certainly a great start to the season and refreshing for Michigan fans to see an offense that was virtually unstoppable for 60 minutes, but we have to be cautiously optimistic.

Last year started off with a bang as well, dominating Western Michigan and jumping out to a 4-0 record before falling back to earth in conference play and going just 1-7 the rest of the season. The true test of whether this offense is for real will be determined in conference play.

That being said, there were some very positive signs that point toward a much improved offense from a year ago.

1. Drive sustainability

Michigan had four touchdown drives of more than 70 yards, as well as a 75-yard drive that resulted in a field goal. Perhaps none was more important than the very first one.

After forcing a three-and-out on UConn’s first possession, Michigan took over just four yards in front of its own end zone. Fourteen plays later, sophomore running back Vincent Smith carried it in from 12 yards out, putting Michigan ahead 7-0. Call it a statement drive: 96 yards (plus 13 yards that Michigan lost on a personal foul committed by guard Patrick Omameh), 12 runs, two passes, and seven points.

Robinson rushed six times on the opening drive for 58 yards and completed both passes he threw for 23 yards. Just like that, questions of whether Robinson was ready to run the offense were answered.

Last season, Michigan had just 13 scoring drives of over 70 yards all year against FBS opponents (Michigan had four against Delaware State). For the Michigan offense to go out there with a quarterback making his first career start and put together five long scoring drives against an above average defense, it was quite a statement.

2. Ball possession

Robinson’s ability to move the ball kept Michigan’s suspect defense off the field. Michigan won the time of possession battle 36:52 to 23:08, the best since Rodriguez took over at Michigan in 2008. The next closest was in last season’s opener against Western Michigan, when Michigan held the ball for 34:20. In fact, that was the only game that Michigan won the time of possession battle last season and just the fourth time in his 25 games at Michigan.

While having the ball for longer than your opponent doesn’t necessarily lead to a win, it’s no secret that Michigan’s weakness this season is the defense. When UConn had the ball, it was able to move pretty effectively against the Michigan defense. Fortunately for Michigan, the Husky receivers didn’t help out quarterback Zach Frazer, dropping several open passes, and Michigan cornerback J.T. Floyd was able to force a fumble inside the five-yard line.

Make no mistake about it, the 10 points given up was not indicative of how well the defense played. It allowed eight plays of 15 yards or more and the game should have been much closer than it was.

The offense’s ability to keep the ball out of Frazer’s hands kept the defense off the field and the strength of the team on the field.

3. Ball security

Turnovers have plagued Rodriguez’s offenses the past two seasons. In 2008, Michigan committed 30, and in 2009, it gave the ball away 28 times. Saturday was the first time since Rodriguez’s second game in Ann Arbor on Sept. 6, 2008 that Michigan has gone turnover-free.

It was great to see Robinson hold onto the ball on his 29 carries and throw perfect passes to his receivers. His decision-making looked far better than last year and if he keeps making the right reads, the offense will continue to plow ahead.

4. Blocking

The offensive line is definitely a strength this season and that was no more apparent than on the first drive of the season. Center David Molk, guards Stephen Schilling and Patrick Omameh, and tackles Perry Dorrestein and Mark Huyge constantly opened up huge holes for Robinson and running backs Michael Shaw and Vincent Smith to run through.

Molk is definitely the heart and soul of the line, providing solid snaps and great protection. When he went down midway through the season last year was when Michigan’s offense started to struggle because it meant juggling the rest of the line to replace him. Provided the line stays healthy this year, it will remain a huge strength for the running game.

In a Rich Rodriguez offense, the receivers have to be just as adept at blocking downfield as they are running routes and catching passes. On several runs, the great blocking by Martavious Odoms, Darryl Stonum, Roy Roundtree, and Kelvin Grady sprung more yards than what should have been. That’s the reason Rodriguez starts Odoms, at just 5’8” and 175 pounds at outside receiver. Despite his small frame, he’s not afraid to throw a block to help earn extra yards.

5. Third-down conversions

Michigan converted 14-of-19 third-down conversions on Saturday, eight of them of more than six yards. Last season, Michigan averaged just under 40 percent on third-downs, which was exactly middle-of-the-pack in the national rankings.

That certainly won’t happen every week, but with a quarterback like Robinson, who can beat you with his feet and his arm, converting third downs is a little bit easier. In fact, this might be the most important aspect of the offense this season, since converting third downs keeps the ball in your hands, keeps your defense off the field, and gives you a chance to score.

It will be interesting to see how the offense handles adversity this season when forced to come from behind. Saturday’s game was never in doubt, as Michigan jumped out to a 21-0 lead before UConn closed the gap to 21-10 at halftime.

Michigan came out in the second half and used a 19-play, 74-yard field goal drive that took 8:05 off the clock. Robinson was effective when he established the running game, both on his own and with Shaw and Smith. That opened up the receivers, which made his throws that much easier. But what happens when Michigan is down 10 in the fourth quarter and can’t afford to keep running? I think that’s the biggest question at this point.

Rodriguez said after the game that he doesn’t plan to let Robinson run 29 times a game, and that’s a good thing. He took some hits and even had to come out of the game for a few plays with a hip bruise. According to Rodriguez, that’s what worked for this game, and Robinson didn’t need to throw more. But that won’t be the case for every game, especially since Michigan’s defense won’t be able to hold every opponent to 10 points.

Overall, it was a great way to start the season and even more encouraging than last season’s opener for a couple of reasons: because UConn is a good team, picked by many experts to win the Big East this season, and because while Robinson is a first-year starter, this is his second year in the system.

I’m certainly not knocking Tate Forcier, but last year no one knew what to expect. As a true freshman he came out of the gates hot, leading Michigan to a 4-0 record, but then everything caught up to him when conference play began and he fell back to earth.

This year, Michigan has a quarterback with a year of experience under his belt, so the performance was much more expected.

I still think a 7-5 record is where the team is headed this season, but next weekend’s opponent, Notre Dame, is one of the opponents I picked to beat Michigan. We’ll find out next Saturday if this week’s performance was indicative of the rest of the season or if it was just an upswing on the pendulum.

Being a Michigan fan that grew up in Ohio and currently lives in New York, I’m constantly bombarded with ridicule from friends and family about the state of the Michigan football program.

“Wow, Michigan has really fallen apart; I don’t think they’ll ever be the same,” one will say, or “Don’t you wish you had a quality coach like Tressel?” another will ask.

In passing conversation, especially with an Ohio State fan, it’s impossible to adequately describe the perfect storm that has been Michigan football the past two seasons.

So as we enter Week 1 of the 2010 college football season, let’s put into words how Michigan’s recent demise, while frustrating, is not quite as bad as it seems.

Be Careful What You Wish For

On the surface, it’s easy to pronounce, “Carr never had a losing season and Rodriguez has losing seasons in each of his first two years, therefore, Rodriguez is a terrible coach and must be fired.”

Yet, a little critical thinking will tell you that there’s more to it than that. The blame for the past two seasons should be as much on former Michigan Athletic Director Bill Martin as on Head Coach Rich Rodriguez. It was Martin, after all, who decided to take Michigan down a completely new path to modernity following Carr’s retirement after the 2007 season.

Carr was a conservative coach who continued the success of his mentor, Michigan legend Bo Schembechler, combining with Bo and Gary Moeller to guide the program to 40 straight winning seasons and 33 straight bowl games. His teams were never going to go out and put up 60 points or step on an opponent’s throat while it was down. But they were never going to get blown out either.

That was both a blessing and a curse. Carr’s safe approach, whether it was punting on fourth-and-one from the opponent’s 45 with a minute and-a-half left in the half, or running three straight times to wind down the clock late in the game while clinging to a two-point lead, worked out more often than not. However, in the few instances when it gave the opponent enough time to score before the half, or gave the opponent the ball back with a chance to drive for the winning score, it was enraging. Michigan fans were constantly calling for Carr to stop being so conservative and some were even calling for him to be fired.

When Martin went out and hired an offensive innovator from West Virginia, some Michigan fans were disappointed that he didn’t get former Michigan offensive lineman Les Miles, while others were intrigued by the notion of the spread offense in Ann Arbor.

Martin knew upon hiring Rodriguez that, while he was an offensive genius, that coaching IQ fit a certain system. His style of coaching doesn’t mesh with the 320-pound offensive linemen and statuesque quarterbacks of Michigan past. He needs smaller, quicker offensive linemen and dual-threat quarterbacks. Whether you think that’s the sign of a good coach or not, that’s what Martin hired.

Right off the bat, Michigan fans expecting a carry-over from the Schembechler/Moeller/Carr regime were in for a letdown. That blame cannot be pinned on Rodriguez.

An Empty Cupboard Won’t Yield a Feast

Carr officially retired following the 2007 season, but he seemingly checked out a couple of years prior. He first hinted at calling it quits prior to 2007 and many believe that had Michigan beaten Ohio State in 2006 and advanced to the National Championship game, Carr’s exit would have come then.

He entered 2007 with a senior four-year-starter at quarterback (Chad Henne) and a hot-shot freshman (Ryan Mallett) backing him up. Part of Carr’s bait to hook Mallett, the number two quarterback in the 2006 high school class, was that the job was his when Henne graduated and Carr wouldn’t recruit a quarterback in the 2007 class.

Mallett, however, had trouble adjusting to Ann Arbor, butting heads with Carr during his freshman season, while being thrust into playing time during Henne’s injury-plagued senior season. By all accounts, Mallett intended to return home following that season regardless of who the coach was in 2008.

Following that season, Henne graduated along with four-year starting running back Mike Hart and left tackle Jake Long (the 1^st overall pick in the 2008 NFL Draft). Junior wide receivers Mario Manningham and Adrian Arrington chose to enter the Draft and left guard Adam Kraus graduated, leaving Rodriguez with just a handful of returning starters on offense, none of which were suited for his offense.

The coaching transition was further slowed when Rodriguez lost out on Terrelle Pryor to Ohio State and offensive lineman Justin Boren bolted for Ohio State, bad-mouthing the program on his way out.* Pryor’s talents fit Rodriguez’s system and would have made some difference in 2008 and Boren certainly had the talent, but wasn’t committed to working hard enough for Rodriguez’s system.

Instead, Rodriguez was left with less talent and experience on offense than the majority of college football. His choice at quarterback was a freshman (Steven Threet) or a walk-on junior (Nick Sheridan), neither of which had any game experience and neither was suited for Rodriguez’s system. That alone wouldn’t have doomed the Wolverines had there been an experienced supporting cast to make up for it.

The best running back Rodriguez had was also a true freshman, Sam McGuffie, a Carr recruit who would have redshirted in any normal situation. The top receiver was a true freshman as well, Martavious Odoms, one of Rodriguez’s first recruits at Michigan who is more suited to be a supporting receiver rather than the lead role.

It’s certainly no stretch to say that no team in college football history has succeeded with freshmen starting at quarterback, running back, and wide receiver, no matter how highly-touted they are coming out of high school. It’s also no stretch to say that no coach in the country could have fared well with what Rodriguez had to work with in 2008.

Essentially, Rodriguez had two choices: to design a completely new playbook to fit the talents of the players Carr left behind or to begin installing his spread ‘n shred offense.

The former might have yielded another win or two that season, allowing Threet and Sheridan to be drop-back passers and McGuffie to run for three yards and a cloud of dust. Yet it would have set back the progression of the offense Rodriguez was going to install – the one he made his living on in working his way up from Glennville State to Tulane to Clemson to West Virginia and, ultimately, to Michigan.

The latter would at least get that progression started for Odoms and the rest of the players recruited by Rodriguez specifically for that offense.

Again, keep in mind that Martin didn’t hire a coach who then surprised everyone by running some wacky offense that no one knew about. Martin knew when he hired Rodriguez that he was essentially a system coach and the best in his field.

To expect that system to work from Day 1 is ludicrous even if he had Henne, Hart, and Long. Simply put, Michigan didn’t have the right players and that’s not Rodriguez’s fault.

Imagine if Schwinn Bicycle Company hired a new CEO who decided the company was going to start making airplanes. While the company is great at making bikes, handlebars and spokes will only fly so far. Mr. CEO would have to begin acquiring the necessary components to build airplanes and it wouldn’t happen overnight.

In the world of college football, players stay in a system for four or five years, making the roster turnover a slow process. It’s impossible to just get rid of 100-plus players of the old regime and bring in 100-plus of your guys. It takes four or five years to turn over the roster, and in theory, the results should progress each year.

By planting the seeds of his offense from Day 1, Rodriguez began to water the roots of his system.

In 2009, Rodriguez was able to land two quarterbacks that fit his offensive style, Tate Forcier and Denard Robinson. Threet transferred to Arizona State when he realized he was a square peg in a round hole and Sheridan was relegated to third string.

In one sense, Rodriguez has progressed with Odoms and the rest of the returnees from 2008 already having a knowledge base of the system. But on the other hand, he was back at square one, having to start another true freshman at quarterback.

Even so, the offense showed marked year-over-year improvement, going from 20.2 points and 290.8 yards per game in 2008 to 29.5 points and 384.5 yards per game in 2009. It just lacked consistency as a result of inexperience.

Reporters With an Axe to Grind

The next fodder for the anti-Rodriguez crowd is the allegation of cheating which was exposed by the Detroit Free Press last August. While all kinds of conspiracy theories exist, the fact is that the Free Press’ reports were nothing short of slanted, biased and exaggerated.

The paper’s writers, Michael Rosenberg and Mark Snyder, succeeded in creating a national sense of animosity towards Rodriguez and ego-boosting by fans of other schools.

The NCAA’s probe, released in February found five violations that in any other situation would be considered the minor, slap-on-the-wrist types that are constantly self-reported or overlooked by other schools. However, as a result of the “Freep Jihad,” the NCAA came down hard, finding five so-called major violations.

While all are nothing more than what would be found at nearly every other school in the country, the national perception is that Michigan and Rich Rodriguez knowingly cheated. It’s easy to create that perception when you’re a reporter with an axe to grind. Just find a couple of disgruntled former players who will gladly trash their former coach as well as a few ignorant freshmen and distort their words. In that way, the situation in Ann Arbor is different than everywhere else.

There is no doubt that Ohio State would find itself behind the eight-ball if the Columbus Dispatch decided to declare jihad on the school. Just this summer the Ohio State athletic department self-reported 13 minor violations between Jan. 1 and July 1, six involving the football program. In fact, since 2000, Ohio State has self-reported 375 minor violations (across all sports), the most of any school in the NCAA. By comparison, Oklahoma has self-reported 224 and Florida 112. 

This leads to two possible conclusions: either Ohio State purposely crosses the line just a little bit, and decides every now and then to self-report just to keep the NCAA at bay; or Ohio State’s athletic department and coaching staff don’t monitor the rule book well enough to know that they shouldn’t keep making these kinds of mistakes.

Either way, if the Dispatch decided that instead of just reporting these violations, they were going to dive in and blow them out of proportion, the NCAA would almost certainly have to come down hard.

So the issue isn’t that Rich Rodriguez is a cheating scumbag; it’s that he didn’t meet the standards of two local reporters.

I’m not saying that Michigan wasn’t wrong, but failing to count 10 minutes of stretching as countable practice time certainly doesn’t justify the national perception created by Rosenberg and Snyder, nor does it create any more of a competitive advantage than those 375 minor violations at Ohio State.

To Paraphrase Arnold, We’ll Be Back

So now that Rodriguez finds himself firmly on the proverbial hot seat, many consider him all but gone if Michigan fails to have a great season this year. But that’s not the case.

If absolutely no progress is shown and another losing season is the end result, then it could happen. But a winning season, a bowl game, and signs of progress assure a fourth season on the job because 2011 promises to be a good one.

Following this season, Michigan loses only one starter on the offensive side (left guard Stephen Schilling) and two on the defensive side (linebackers Obi Ezeh and Jonas Mouton).

When senior cornerback Troy Woolfolk went down with a season-ending ankle injury last week, it was both a blessing and a curse. Woolfolk won’t be able to help out a very thin secondary this season, but intends to come back for his senior season in 2011, so a position that will be a weakness this season will be a strength next year.

In addition to 18 starters returning (19 if you count getting Woolfolk back), quarterbacks Tate Forcier and Denard Robinson will be in their third season running the offense. By then, their comfort level will be enough to ensure an offense sure to be as vaunted as those Rodriguez featured at West Virginia.

The schedule also sets up nicely with Notre Dame, Wisconsin, and Ohio State at home, Penn State off the schedule, and Western Michigan, Eastern Michigan, and San Diego State as the other non-conference opponents (although the conference schedule may change due to the realignment and addition of Nebraska).  

In other words, Michigan Athletic Director Dave Brandon would be ill-advised to fire Rodriguez after this season unless things really blow up. I don’t support firing him this season anyway, since 2011 will really be the determining season.

Consider 2010 the primer for a run at the inaugural Big Ten Championship next season. Don’t write off Rodriguez and the Wolverines just yet, because it’s not quite as bad as it seems.

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*Many have also piled on Rodriguez for the players that have left the program for various reasons, such as Boren and wide receiver Toney Clemons who transfered, Justin Feagen and Boubacar Cissoko who were kicked off the team, and others who failed to qualify. Yet they forget that Carr had the same troubles.

In 2007 alone, Carr dismissed tight end Carson Butler, defensive end Eugene Germany, and cornerback Chris Richards from the team for violating team rules, backup quarterback Jason Forcier (Tate’s older brother) transfered to Stanford, and linebacker Cobrani Mixon transfered to Kent State (all of which subsequently hurt the depth of Rodriguez’s teams).

With another losing season in the books, the Michigan football program appears to be in disarray to many outsiders, as well as a fraction of the Michigan fan-base.

But is everything doom and gloom for this squad, or is there help on the way? Is head coach Rich Rodriguez in over his head in the Big Ten, or has he already laid the groundwork for success?

On this Thanksgiving day, as we visit with loved ones, stuff our faces with turkey and pumpkin pie, and watch the Cowboys and Lions, let’s take an early look at what the 2010 version of Michigan football will look like.

Certainly a lot of questions have to be answered, and I believe it starts with the players Rodriguez already has in the program.

Freshman quarterback Tate Forcier played the entire season and at times looked like a confident veteran, but at times looked every bit the 18-year old freshman he was.

He enrolled early at Michigan last January, a move that greatly helped earn him the starting job over last year’s returning starter, walk-on junior Nick Sheridan.

Forcier led comeback wins over Notre Dame and Indiana, brought the team back from 14 points down to force overtime at Michigan State, and performed well in late-season conference games against Illinois, Purdue, and Wisconsin.

But he was also prone to throwing the ball up for grabs, not securing the ball when scrambling, and making the wrong reads on zone option running plays.

These mistakes speak more toward his youth and inexperience than his true talent level. His solid performances showed he has the talent to be Michigan’s quarterback for the next three years.

The good thing is that the mistakes are correctable and will be cured by more time spent on the practice field, in the film room, and in the weight room. In short, we have a bright future ahead at the quarterback position.

Another off-season under strength and conditioning coach Mike Barwis will help Forcier add muscle to his slight frame and help avoid injuries. Many forget that Forcier played most of the season with a sprained AC join in his shoulder – the same injury Oklahoma quarterback Sam Bradford suffered, albeit to a lesser degree.

As Forcier gets more practice time and learns more of the playbook, his understanding of Rodriguez’s complicated “spread-n-shred” offense will grow.

Many of those misreads when he kept the ball instead of handing it off, or when he handed it off and should have kept it, will be fixed next year and in the years that follow.

In addition, he will improve with his passing reads, as he gets more comfortable in the system. This season, he tended to pull it down and scramble the instant he sniffed pressure. His creativity and ability to throw on the run covered up some of these problems, but it also led to turnovers or a failure to throw the ball away.

You can’t fault the kid for trying too hard. Some of the ill advised throws were a result of just trying to make something happen, but will be fixed with experience. Some of the plays he made in the comeback against Notre Dame were the same type of plays that resulted in turnovers down the stretch, as was glaringly evident against the great defense of Ohio State.

Forcier’s background leads me to believe he’ll be a fantastic quarterback. He was groomed to play the position, trained under Marv Marinovich, and has two older brothers that play quarterback as well. The mechanics are there, as is the quarterback mentality. Now, he just needs to develop in Rodriguez’s offense and he’ll be fine.

Michigan’s other quarterback, fellow freshman Denard Robinson has a lot further to go in his development, but is also a great fit for Rodriguez’s offense.

Robinson didn’t enroll early, so he had only about a month of practice prior to Michigan’s opening game against Western Michigan. The majority of the action Robinson saw was designed runs to utilize his athletic ability.

Early in the season it worked. He scored four rushing touchdowns in Michigan’s first seven games. As the season progressed and the meat of the schedule was reached, opposing defenses caught on and stacked up to stop the run whenever he entered the game.

It was frustrating at times to see Robinson come in, knowing he was going to run, and get stuffed for little gain. Yet, we have to remember that he had very little practice time and doesn’t yet possess the passing ability needed to be a quarterback for a major Division 1 quarterback.

Unlike Forcier, who already possesses the mechanical skills, Robinson will take more work to develop. But his upside is his athletic ability, which is much greater than Forcier’s.

His touchdown run against Western Michigan left Michigan fans salivating for him to be used in a Percy Harvin-type role.

Late in the season we saw more plays in which Robinson lined up in the backfield next to Forcier or spread out wide running a fly pattern. Against Ohio State, he was thrown to deep a couple of times, although neither was completed, and one was intercepted.

I think we were all a bit impatient throughout the season, assuming that it would be easy to thrust him into plays at running back or receiver. However, with the dire need of quarterback depth in case of a Forcier injury, and merely the fact that Robinson was a true freshman, time spent practicing plays at other positions meant time spent not developing at quarterback.

In the future, when Rodriguez adds to the quarterback depth, he will have more flexibility in using Robinson in other roles. But during the course of this season, I think we overlooked the need to keep him where he was.

Next year, that depth will be added to by Inkster, Mich. quarterback Devin Gardner. The dual-threat quarterback fits the mold of Rodriguez’s ideal quarterback perfectly and his arrival in Ann Arbor is highly anticipated.

In his senior season at Inkster High School, Gardner has thrown for 1,472 yards and 14 touchdowns to just three interceptions, and rushed for over 700 yards and 15 touchdowns. He has led his team to the state championship game against Lowell on Friday.

Scouts compare him to Penn State’s Darryl Clark former Auburn (and current Washington Redskins) quarterback Jason Campbell. They are high on his size and strength, as well as his arm strength and running ability.

An ideal situation would be to redshirt him next season and allow him to develop and learn the system until Forcier and Robinson graduate and then take over for his junior and senior seasons.

But with his talent, will he be patient enough to wait in the wings for three years? In order for Rodriguez’s system to succeed, I hope he’s unselfish enough to do so.

Granted, there’s always the possibility of Gardner coming in and beating out Forcier and Robinson for the starting job next season or the year after, and if that’s the case, then by all means, the guy that gives Michigan the best chance to win should play.

Whatever the case, the centerpiece of Rodriguez’s system is in place and the future looks bright at the quarterback position.

The backfield is where Michigan loses the most talent, but due to the nature of Rodriguez’s system and the injuries that Michigan suffered this season, the stable is not empty.

Seniors Brandon Minor and Carlos Brown will be big losses, and certainly their absences in many of the games hurt Michigan’s chances for success, but it also allowed young guys to gain experience.

The most impressive runner late in the season was freshman Vincent Smith. His performance in Michigan’s spring game last April gave Michigan fans a glimpse of what he is capable of, but he didn’t see much action through the first half of the season.

But in Michigan’s final two games, against Wisconsin and Ohio State, Smith emerged as Michigan’s go-to back, displaying quickness and pass-catching ability.

He figures to enter 2010 as Michigan’s starting tailback.

Sophomore Michael Shaw has also shown some ability and as his vision for the field improves, could develop into a nice complement to Smith.

His main problem has been that he doesn’t cut through the gaps quick enough, instead always relying on getting around the outside.

Redshirt freshman Michael Cox got some playing time as Michigan’s fifth running back and still has some time to grow. He’ll certainly get a chance to prove himself and earn some more playing time with the graduation of Minor and Brown.

True freshman Fitzgerald Toussaint is a guy that many Michigan fans were excited about coming out of high school. He redshirted this season and will also get a chance in the off-season to earn a role in the offense.

Incoming freshmen Tony Drake, Stephen Hopkins, and Austin White (all three-stars) should give Michigan plenty of options in the backfield.

Receiver is a position that Michigan certainly isn’t lacking talent. A go-to guy emerged in the second half of the season, in redshirt freshman Roy Roundtree. He caught 30 passes for 390 yards and two touchdowns in the final four games of the season.

Though he lacks elite speed, Roundtree showed great hands and a willingness to go across the middle. He should enter 2010 as Michigan’s number one receiver, but it will be interesting to see if he stays in the slot or moves to the outside to replace senior Greg Mathews.

By the time next season rolls around, Michigan will have a lot of experience with sophomore Martavious Odoms in the slot. Odoms started as a true freshman in 2008 and was one of Michigan’s lone bright spots, leading the team in receiving with 49 catches for 443 yards.

Injuries forced him to miss a couple of games late in the season this year, but that could be a blessing in disguise as it opened the door for Roundtree’s emergence.

Also in the slot, sophomore Kelvin Grady showed good speed early in the season, but dropped balls caused him to lose playing time. The former Michigan basketball player definitely has the athleticism to be effective; he just needs to work on catching the ball and he could develop into a weapon in the next couple of years.

A freshman that redshirted this season, Jeremy Gallon could factor into the equation as well. He was highly regarded coming out of high school last year, and a year learning the system should allow him to see some playing time next season.

A wild card in the slot could be incoming freshman Drew Dileo. A 5’9” 170 pound white guy, Dileo committed to Michigan over Tulane, Stanford, and Rice. I mention “white guy” only because of the inevitable Wes Welker comparison. If he can fit that mold, Michigan has itself a steal, but if his low rankings hold true, he could get lost in the mix.

On the outside, redshirt sophomore Junior Hemingway and sophomore Darryl Stonum bring a couple years of experience to the table and have at times shown considerable promise.

Hemingway started 2008 with a bang, catching a 33-yard touchdown pass in Michigan’s game against Utah, but an injury caused him to miss the remainder of the season.

This season, he came out hot again, catching five passes for 103 yards and two touchdowns in the season opener against Western Michigan. But he didn’t catch a touchdown pass the rest of the season, and barely matched the yardage output in the rest of the games combined, finishing with just 16 catches for 268 yards.

Stonum started 10 games as a freshman in 2008 and had his best game against Purdue, scoring on a 51-yard catch and run.

This season, he hauled in only 13 receptions for 199 yards and a touchdown, though the touchdown was a thrilling 60-yard play to ignite Michigan’s comeback in the fourth quarter against Michigan State.

Je’Ron Stokes is a freshman that played primarily on special teams this season and could have an impact in 2010. The 6-0 181 pound speedster out of Philadelphia was a top-100 recruit and was rated the eighth-best wide receiver in the nation last season according to Scouts, Inc.

Stokes caught two passes for 16 yards against Delaware State in the only real action he saw this season.

Four-star receivers Ricardo Miller and Jerald Robinson and three-stars Jeremy Jackson and D.J. Williamson make up a solid group of incoming freshmen will help bolster the ranks of what should be the deepest position on the team.

On the offensive line, Michigan returns nearly everybody and should get a big boost from a group of redshirt freshmen that fit Rodriguez’s system.

Left tackle Mark Ortmann and right guard-turned center David Moosman both graduate, but neither is a huge loss. Ortmann was serviceable and Moosman was a solid guard, but struggled at the center position when David Molk went down with an injury.

Getting Molk back next season will provide Michigan a solid, experienced center who started every game in his redshirt freshman season in 2008 and would have this season if not for a broken foot. He was rated the No. 1 center in the nation coming out of high school.

Redshirt junior Steven Schilling will probably be Michigan’s best offensive lineman in 2010. Schilling was ranked as the second-best guard in the nation coming out of high school and has started for three seasons, counting this one.

Perhaps the most surprising player is redshirt freshman Patrick Omameh, who earned a starting spot towards the end of the season and played pretty well. Omameh is a Rodriguez recruit who was just a two-star, mostly due to a lack of size compared to the typical offensive line recruit.

His performance has earned him strong consideration to start next season, probably at either right guard or right tackle.

Redshirt sophomore Mark Huyge started much of the season at right guard and figures to start next season either there or right tackle.

True freshman and highly regarded recruit Taylor Lewan is perfect for Rodriguez’s offense, rated as one of the most athletic and versatile linemen in the nation as a senior. He should get a chance to start at left tackle next season.

Another freshman that could get some action next season is Quinton Washington. He was a four-star recruit and the sixth-rated offensive guard as a senior.

Redshirt junior Perry Dorrestein, who has seen some action, should battle for the left tackle spot, while redshirt freshmen Ricky Barnum and Elliott Mealer will have a chance to earn a spot as well.

Incoming freshmen won’t help next season, as offensive line is a position in which recruits need time in a college strength and conditioning program to develop, but the future looks pretty good with last year’s haul. Only one offensive line commitment is secured for this year’s class unless Rodriguez is able to snag the nation’s top recruit, Seantrel Henderson, but that seems unlikely at this point.

At tight end, Michigan is stacked with experience in sophomores Kevin Koger and Martell Webb.

Koger finished fifth on the team in receiving this season, catching 16 passes for 220 yards and two touchdowns. He caught an important touchdown pass against Notre Dame, but had some problems with drops midway through the season and didn’t see as many balls thrown his way in the last few games.

Webb caught just four passes for 44 yards and a touchdown, but got a lot of playing time and was a fairly effective run blocker.

Webb was a junior this season and Koger just a sophomore, so the tight end position should be a strength for Michigan next season.

Overall, the Michigan offense made some strides this year, averaging nine more points per game and 95 more yards of total offense per game than last season.

In addition, the offense showed that it could sustain drives this year, and although turnovers were a problem, those are mistakes that are fixable.

We didn’t see all the negative yardage plays that we saw last year when the offense just completely bogged down.

Next year we can expect even more improvement as the Rodriguez system enters its third year. The losses of Minor, Brown, Mathews, Ortmann, and Moosman should not slow this team down very much, since their replacements all got a lot of experience this year.

Most importantly, the core is in place, and there won’t be fresh blood needing to play a crucial role, as there was this season.

So on this Thanksgiving, let’s be thankful for the seniors that stuck out the coaching change and put forth their best efforts. Let’s also be thankful for the young guys that got their feet wet this year and will pioneer our maize and blue back to prominence in the years to come.

And let’s be thankful for an offensive innovator as our head coach – someone who is a proven winner and cares as much about getting the Michigan football program back on track as anyone else does. He will take Michigan to a place far beyond what we have seen if we afford him the time to do so.

The offense is certainly on track. Stay tuned for my defensive preview in the next few days.

As the 130th season of Michigan football comes to an end, it’s time to reflect on what we saw and look forward to next year and beyond.

2009 yielded some highlights and some lowlights, some controversy and some challenged loyalty. A legend was made and some buds blossomed. Records fell, both good and bad, and a system started to show some promise.

No one knew what to expect from this year’s version of Michigan football in Rich Rodriguez’s second year at the helm.

The overly optimistic among us predicted a breakout season of nine or ten wins.

Realistic optimists pointed to Rodriguez’s penchant for second-year turnarounds and predicted a record of 7-5 or maybe, if luck goes the way of the maize and blue, 8-4.

Realists pointed to the true freshmen quarterbacks and lack of overall talent on the squad and predicted a 5-7 or 6-6 finish.

As it turns out, the realists were right, but the realistic optimists weren’t too far off.

The fact of the matter is, Michigan fans were so shell-shocked from the worst record in 46 years in 2008 that we were looking anywhere we could for hope.

We ignored comments that Rodriguez made in the preseason such as, “There’s still going to be some transition. We’re going to play a lot more freshmen and redshirt freshmen than we would like to.”

We thought, sure there will be a lot of freshmen playing, but Tate Forcier and Denard Robinson are surely better options than Steven Threet and Nick Sheridan. Or, yeah, but it can’t get any worse than last season.

In this space, I offered some words of caution: “Coming off a season that resulted in the most losses in school history, and pinning all hopes on a true freshman quarterback, this seems to be the window of opportunity before Rodriguez’s system begins to take hold and terrorize the Big Ten.”

But then I followed it up with an overly ambitious response: “However, I think we’re going to see a very fast, well-conditioned and much-improved Michigan team playing with a chip on its shoulder to avoid being put to rest again.”

While that may have held true for a while, reality eventually sunk in that this team was indeed loaded with youth and razor-thin on the depth chart.

What began in August as optimism and eagerness to forget the epic disaster of 2008, quickly turned to scorn as the Detroit Free Press brought into question allegations of NCAA infractions on the part of Rodriguez and his coaching staff.

The opening game against Western Michigan couldn’t come soon enough. We cursed Michael Rosenberg and Mark Snyder for the timing of their article and the witch-hunt that ensued and we promised to get revenge on Justin Boren, who transferred to Ohio State, for his comments that seemed to be the centerpiece of that article.

And then the season began and practice time was forgotten and the story of Shoelace became one we would hear every game the entire season (as my wife would roll her eyes every time the announcers felt compelled to tell the story of why Denard Robinson doesn’t tie his shoes…every…single…game).

Robinson thrilled us with a 43-yard touchdown run, Tate Forcier showed promise in his first game by throwing for three touchdowns, Junior Hemingway caught nearly half his season total in receiving yards (103) and all of his touchdowns (two), and the defense shut down what many thought would be a high-powered offense.

We saw a show of solidarity for Rodriguez, Michigan won easily, and the season started off with a bang.

The came Notre Dame, fresh off of throttling Nevada, and riding preseason BCS bowl (or national championship game) predictions.

This will go down as the game that raised all of our expectations, mostly because no one knew at that time how mediocre Notre Dame really was.

It appeared to be Rodriguez’s signature win, as Michigan matched Notre Dame score-for-score and Forcier stunned the 18th-ranked Irish with 11 seconds left.

Forcier looked as veteran and composed as ND junior quarterback Jimmy Clausen, completing 23-of-33 for 240 yards and three touchdowns (one rushing). It’s hard to imagine that that would be the high point of his season, in just his second collegiate game.

Of course, there was the Armando Allen out-of-bounds play, which, despite the evidence , Notre Dame fans will carry to their graves in contempt.

The win over Notre Dame vaulted Michigan into the Top 25 heading into week three against Eastern Michigan. Former Michigan defensive coordinator Ron English brought his Eagles to Ann Arbor and didn’t provide much of a test.

Michigan showed off its running game this time, going for 380 yards on the ground, and getting 163 yards and two touchdowns on just eight carries from Carlos Brown in the first half alone.

Robinson scored two more touchdowns to enhance the unrealistic expectations for a guy that arrived on campus less than two months earlier.

Michigan then opened the Big Ten slate with Indiana in what would eventually be the battle for last place. At the time, though, Michigan was hoping to get to 4-0 heading into its intrastate rivalry battle in East Lansing.

This game provided our first glimpse of what the rest of the season would hold, as Michigan struggled to beat the Hoosiers, needing a 26-yard touchdown pass from Forcier to Martavious Odoms with 2:29 remaining to get the win.

The Indiana victory prompted me to draw a comparison to the New York Jets, who like Michigan, started off hot with a rookie quarterback: “Following Sunday’s Jets-Titans game, Vic Carucci of NFL.com asked Jets safety Kerry Rhodes if he thought the Jets’ style of play was sustainable. Rhodes replied that he thought it was because having such a good defense allows rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez to make some mistakes.

“Unfortunately, that won’t exactly translate to Michigan. While I think Michigan’s offense is further along in its development than Sanchez’s Jets offense, relatively speaking, Michigan hasn’t faced its toughest opponents yet.”

I provided the last part of that quote because I knew we were in for a tough go the rest of the season. I didn’t know, however, that that would be our last win over a FBS team all season. Ironically, Michigan’s fall has mirrored the Jets’ collapse.

At 4-0, a return to a bowl game looked assured, and Michigan entered “Little Brother” week seeking to avenge last season’s 35-21 loss to Michigan State.

It was the first road game of Forcier’s career and we saw the fist true test of the season, as the Michigan offense was shut down much of the game. But Forcier continued his early-season magic, leading a 14-point comeback to force overtime with a touchdown completion to Roy Roundtree with just two seconds left.

In overtime, Forcier was intercepted on a tipped pass that never should have been thrown, and Michigan dropped its second in a row to Michigan State for the first time since 1967.

Michigan Streaks Broken in 2009
First back-to-back losses to Michigan State since 1967
First home loss to Penn State since 1996
First home loss to Purdue in last 17 meetings
First back-to-back losing seasons since 1963-62

This began a run of snapping streaks right and left.

With its first loss of the season under its belt, Michigan traveled to Iowa for a prime-time night game against the nation’s 12th-ranked Hawkeyes.

Brandon Minor had his breakout game of the season, scoring two touchdowns against a defense that hadn’t given up a rushing touchdown in 33 quarters.

The game started out as well as one could ask, as Donovan Warren picked off the first pass of the game and returned it for a touchdown.

Michigan hung around until a muffed punt (hello 2008!) gave Iowa the ball at the Michigan 16. Iowa punched it in and took a 30-21 lead.

Robinson led the offense down the field for a touchdown to narrow the gap, but on the next possession, threw an interception to end the game, beginning the Wolverine-faithful’s love-hate relationship with Denard.

Despite a second-straight loss, Michigan fans were encouraged that the team was able to hang with undefeated Iowa until the last minute of the game, and a return to the Big House to face an FCS school was just what Michigan needed to regroup.

Michigan was able to set numerous school records in the win over Delaware State that week and give many starters a week off.

Five Wolverines scored their first career touchdowns and Robinson was able to get a lot of work at quarterback.

Michigan fans even got the treat of seeing Nick Sheridan on the field without the game on the line.

Many fans didn’t like the idea of playing an FCS school, but following the game, I proclaimed, “I have no problem with Michigan playing Delaware State this year. With a roster comprised of mostly underclassmen, and a complete overhaul in progress, playing an FCS opponent was better than a bye week in my opinion.

Michigan Records Set vs. Delaware State
727 total yards of offense
442 yards in the first half
28 points in the first quarter (ties record)
57 point margin of victory (most since 58-0 win over Indiana on Oct. 14, 2000)
461 rushing yards (most since 480 vs. Iowa on Oct. 3, 1992)
49 first half points (most since 55 vs. Chicago on Oct. 21, 1939)

“I would love to see Michigan start scheduling another tough out-of-conference game every year, but at this point in the development of Rich Rodriguez’s scheme, it’s not time for that just yet.

“Once the team grows up and the spread-n-shred is fully ingrained, I hope the schedule will be strengthened. But when you have Florida, arguably the nation’s top team and reigning national champion, playing Charleston Southern, Troy and Florida International, one must look that way first before pointing fingers at the baby Wolverines.”

I still believe it was okay to play Delaware State this season, but obviously with the way Michigan finished the season the benefits weren’t as great as I thought.

At 5-2, Michigan looked primed to make a bowl game, needing just one more win in its final five games.

Penn State came to town and dominated Michigan, racking up 396 yards of offense, and handing Michigan its first true beating of the season.

For really the first time all season, Forcier looked like a true freshman, completing just 13-of-30 passes for 140 yards. The offense couldn’t get anything going in the cold, rainy conditions.

Michigan wasn’t expected to win this one, and despite the 25-point whooping, I considered this result somewhat of a fluke and still didn’t believe the team was as bad as the final record would eventually indicate.

Following the Penn State game, doomsday headlines abounded, and I cautioned fans not to listen to them.

As it turns out, they were right.

Michigan traveled to Champaign, Ill. for a match-up with 1-6 Illinois, a game that looked like a sure-win.

This one will forever be remembered as the epic collapse, and probably the turning point of the whole season. I don’t think I’ve ever seen a bigger turnaround before.

Michigan was firmly in control with a 13-7 lead and first and goal at the Illinois one-yard line in the third quarter. After stuffing Michigan on four straight rushes, Illinois took possession and seized the game.

Six plays later, a 70-yard touchdown run put Illinois ahead 14-13 and Illinois never looked back, out-scoring Michigan 24-0 the rest of the way.

At this point in the season, confidence in a bowl game turned into hoping to squeeze out a win in one of the final three games. The best hope was the following week against Purdue.

Perhaps hope is the wrong word against Purdue, as Boilermaker head coach Danny Hope carried a grudge into the game, blaming Rodriguez for getting one of his players suspended for a game earlier in the season – nevermind that the player deserved to be suspended just as much as Michigan linebacker Jonas Mouton did the week before that.

This game was much like the Illinois game, where Michigan was in control and let it get away. Michigan led 24-10 at halftime and pushed it to 30-17 in the third, but a 91-yard touchdown drive, an on-side kick, and a 54-yard touchdown pass later, and Michigan found itself trailing 31-30.

Michigan missed a 43-yard field goal and failed to convert a two-point conversion attempt that would have tied the game, and Michigan fell by two.

Michigan traveled to Wisconsin for its final road game of the season, still needing a win to become bowl-eligible.

This game followed the mold of the past couple, as Michigan hung around through three quarters, but faded down the stretch.

Forcier bounced back from some poor outings to complete 20-of-26 passes for 188 yards and two touchdowns, but it was the defense that couldn’t hold up against a powerful Wisconsin running game.

Although Michigan knew Wisconsin was going to run it in the second half, it still couldn’t stop the Badgers.

The bowl hopes all came down to the final week of the season against Ohio State, as Michigan looked to end its five game losing streak to the Buckeyes.

Though many around the nation talked of the lack of luster in the rivalry, the game still had plenty of storylines with Michigan needing a win to make a bowl and avoid a second straight losing season, Ohio State needing a win to capture the Big Ten title outright, and Justin Boren playing against his former team in the Big House.

The Michigan defense played inspired and turned in its best performance of the season, holding the Ohio State offense to just 14 points.

However, it was the youth of Michigan’s offensive leader that doomed the Wolverines’ chances of playing through the holidays.

Forcier turned the ball over five times, including a fumble in the end zone on Michigan’s first possession, which Ohio State recovered for a touchdown.

Michigan moved the ball most of the day against an Ohio State defense that ranks as one of the best in the nation. But it was unable to capitalize on trips to the red zone, turning the ball over too many times.

So as Michigan’s season came to an abrupt end for the second year in a row, many want to know where do we go from here?

Indeed, there are many questions that need to be answered, but I’m in the minority who still believes the program is on the right track.

Stay tuned for part two where I will look at the future of the football program, both short-term and long-term, as well as the recruiting class Michigan has coming in and who is still out there that Rodriguez needs to land.

Following last week’s Halloween horror in Illinois, Michigan returns home with its best remaining chance to become bowl eligible.

Any other season, that wouldn’t be a big deal, but after missing a bowl for the first time in 34 years last season, Michigan needs to get back to post-season play. It’s important, not only for the prestige of playing in a bowl, which isn’t what it was the last time Michigan missed a bowl, but also for the extra few weeks of practice.

The extra practice time will give the team more room to grow and prepare for the bowl game and beyond.

But the only way to be assured of that extra practice time is to beat Purdue on Saturday.

Purdue is an interesting team – one that beat Ohio State and came within two of Oregon and three of Notre Dame, but one that also lost to Northern Illinois, Northwestern, and got throttled 37-0 by Wisconsin last week.

In other words, the Jekyll and Hyde team reminds me of, well, Michigan.

Michigan upset Notre Dame and came within two of Iowa, but lost to Michigan State and got pounded by Illinois and Penn State.

So the question is: which team will show up…for both teams?

If the Michigan team from the beginning of the season shows up, Michigan should win this one fairly easily. But if Dr. Hyde returns in the form of the Salvation Army, it could spell another long day, and another long off-season for Michigan.

Michigan has turned the ball over 7 times (and gained none) in the past two games and has a minus-10 turnover differential overall.

The biggest key to this game is stopping the big plays, and actually creating turnovers, which for this Michigan defense is much easier said than done.

Michigan gave up eight plays of over 20 yards last week against Illinois, a problem that has plagued the team all year long.

Purdue has a quarterback, Joey Elliott that ranks third in the Big Ten in passing, at 231.2 yards per game and second in touchdowns, with 14.

Receivers Keith Smith (60 receptions for 757 yards and 4 TDs) and Aaron Valentin (45 receptions for 535 yards and 7 TDs) will be a problem for Michigan’s secondary to contain.

Add in the fact that the Purdue offensive line has given up just 14 sacks through eight games, and Michigan could be forced to put up big numbers on offense to win the game.

Michigan has to be able to put pressure on Elliott to keep him from burning the secondary.

Purdue has also shown a knack for turning the ball over. In six losses, it has given up the ball 20 times, and Purdue has only one game (against Illinois) in which it had no turnovers.

This might just be the game Michigan needs to re-gain its confidence heading into the final two games against Wisconsin and Ohio State.

The second key to the game for Michigan is running the ball. Senior Brandon Minor is expected to play, and possibly start on Saturday, which should give Michigan its best running game possible.

Purdue ranks ninth in the Big Ten in rush defense, giving up 168.4 yards per game. Michigan should be able to run early and often, but must even that out with some resemblance of a passing game.

Purdue boasts the conference’s best pass defense and that doesn’t bode well for a Michigan team that lacks a polished receiving threat and will be without its top slot receiver, Martavious Odoms for the second straight week.

Freshman quarterback Tate Forcier has to be able to connect with tight ends Kevin Koger and Martell Webb over the middle to keep the Purdue defense from stacking the box.

That will allow Michigan to run the ball, which is even more important given that Purdue has one of the top defensive ends in the conference, in Ryan Kerrigan. He ranks first in the Big Ten in sacks this season, with nine, and ranks third in tackles-for-loss, with 14.5.

If Michigan can’t keep the Purdue defense honest with occasional passes to open up the running game, Forcier could be running for his life a lot.

Finally, Michigan has to play with confidence.

Last week, Michigan took a 13-7 lead into halftime and marched the opening drive of the second half down to the Illinois six-inch line. But then it failed to get into the end zone in four plays, and everything went down-hill from there.

Illinois out-scored Michigan 31-0 the rest of the way and Michigan was unable to respond.

This week, if something happens, the team needs to be able to pick itself up and bounce back. I know this is a very young team without much senior leadership, but it has to be able to pull itself off the mat and keep fighting.

With all that said, I’m skeptical about this game. At first glance, Purdue seems like an easy win, but when comparing the match-ups, it’s a lot closer.

Both teams are coming off bad road losses, but Michigan has the luxury of returning home to the friendly Maize and Blue-clad fans. And thankfully, Purdue’s quarterback isn’t the mobile-type quarterback that gives Michigan fits.

With its back up against the wall, I think Michigan will respond with one of its best outings of the season to at least give Michigan fans hope for the final two games.

Prediction: Michigan 36 – Purdue 21

The Michigan-Penn State game over the past decade or so has had a lot of memorable moments – for Michigan fans at least.

There was the “Judgement Day” game in 1997 when undefeated Michigan traveled to State College and slammed No. 3 Penn State 34-8.

There was 2005 when freshman wide receiver Mario Manningham caught the game-winning pass with no time on the clock to hand Penn State its only loss of the season.

And what Michigan fan can forget the 2006 game when Michigan’s defense knocked out not one, but two Penn State quarterbacks (Anthony Morelli and Daryll Clark) en route to a 17-10 win?

But last year Penn State finally got the Michigan monkey off its back, winning for the first time in its last 10 tries. Now Michigan looks to right the ship and show that last year was just a fluke in the rivalry.

In my season projections before the season started, I predicted that Michigan would finish 7-5. One of those five losses would come to Penn State. I also thought Penn State would be far and away better than it has been so far this season.

Don’t get me wrong – Penn State is a good team. It leads the Big Ten in total offense, total defense, and time of possession, ranks second in scoring offense, has the most sacks and the second fewest penalties, and has the best third down defense.

Yet, when you look further, you realize that it has played just one good team all season (Iowa). Aside from that, it shut out a fairly decent Minnesota team last week, and the rest of the teams on the schedule have a combined record of 13-18.

Michigan has taken some heat for the schedule it has played, most notably for Delaware State, an FCS team, last weekend. Yet the combined record of its opponents is virtually the same as Penn State’s.

So despite the perception that Penn State is far and away better than Michigan, I find the two very similar.

The offenses are a lot alike with the main talent at running back. Penn State running back Evan Royster is a senior and has already run for 641 yards this season. He has Stephfon Green, a junior who has scored four touchdowns, to complement him, although Green is out for this week’s game with an ankle injury.

Michigan’s offense relies heavily senior backs Carlos Brown and Brandon Minor, who have combined for 610 yards and seven touchdowns, though neither played last week against Delaware State.

While Michigan’s rushing offense is a little more dynamic overall, Penn State has a little better passing offense thanks to a fifth-year senior quarterback. Darryl Clark has completed 62 percent of his passes for 1,654 yards, 13 touchdowns and seven interceptions.

Clark has play-makers to throw to in Derek Moye (472 yards, 4 TDs), Chaz Powell (316 yards, 3 TDs) and Graham Zug (257 yards, 2 TDs), all of which have more yards than Michigan’s leading receiver, sophomore Martavious Odoms (238 yards, 1 TD).

Defensively, there’s no question that Penn State is formidable. It has given up just 61 points through six games and just 239 yards per game.

Michigan on the other hand, gives up about 21 points per game. That doesn’t bode well when going up against a great defense, since Michigan’s modus operandi this season has been to put up a lot of points and hope it’s more than it gave up.

However, the last time Michigan went up against a defense many thought was impenetrable, it ran with ease. Michigan scored three rushing touchdowns on an Iowa defense that hadn’t given up a rushing touchdown in 33 quarters of play.

So what does Michigan have to do to beat Penn State?

It starts with taking care of the ball. Through the first five games of the season, Michigan had done a pretty good job of this. But against Iowa, Michigan turned it over five times, essentially thwarting its chance for an upset.

Michigan has come a long way from last year’s turnover-prone bunch, but in its biggest game yet, turnovers became its downfall.

Protecting the ball against Penn State is mission number one. Michigan has shown that it can move the ball and put points on the board. But failing to convert because of turnovers and giving the opponent good field position and momentum won’t help its cause.

Secondly, Michigan needs to prove it can be effective with the pass. It averages 235 yards per game on the ground (5.4 yards per carry) and Penn State will undoubtedly stack the box to stop the run.

Michigan quarterback Tate Forcier has proven he can pass, but much of Michigan’s passing has come toward the end of halves or games when needing to score quickly.

If Michigan can complete some passes early, it can keep Penn State mindful of the pass and pay dividends in the running game.

Michigan should have center David Molk back from a foot injury, so that will help the offensive line consistency. Molk has missed the last four games, leaving right guard David Moosman to fill in.

Finally, Michigan has to prevent the big play. Penn State has a wealth of play-makers and Michigan has been prone to giving up big plays all season. Its defense has had trouble getting off the field on third down and that was a glaring weakness against Iowa.

The Hawkeyes converted 8-of-18 third downs, including a 34-yard touchdown pass on 3rd-and-12.

Big plays are devastating to a defense, and even more so when the offense is turning the ball over. If Michigan can contain Penn State’s play-makers it has a good chance to win.

I think this will be a pretty evenly-matched game, especially since it’s in the Big House. But in the end, I think Penn State has too many playmakers on offense and too rigid a defense for Michigan to out-score it.

Unless Michigan plays a virtually perfect game, Penn State will win. Unfortunately, with this young team, a perfect game is unlikely.

Prediction: Penn State 34 – Michigan 27