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M&GB staff predictions: Maryland

November 21st, 2014 by Justin Potts


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Michigan hosts Maryland tomorrow for the first time since 1990 and for the first time as Big Ten conference foes. Both teams have much to play for — Michigan to become bowl eligible and Maryland to assure a winning season. Twelve seniors will play their final game in Michigan Stadium. Can Michigan pick up its sixth win? Or will Maryland complete the Big Ten newbie sweep of the Wolverines? Here are our picks.

Staff Predictions
Michigan Maryland
Justin 17 16
Sam 19 23
Derick 20 17
Josh 13 27
Joe 17 24
M&GB Average 17 21

Justin: Michigan’s defense suffered a huge blow last weekend when Frank Clark was dismissed from the team for a domestic violence incident in an Ohio hotel. Clark was having the best season of his career and recorded the game-saving stop to beat Northwestern (he didn’t actually sack Trevor Siemian, but made the play that caused Siemian to slip). Without the leader of the defensive line, Michigan will have to rely on Taco Charlton and Mario Ojemudia to step up.

Maryland, however, lost its top player to injury when receiver Stefon Diggs suffered a lacerated kidney a couple weeks ago. He leads the team in receptions, yards, and touchdowns, so his loss evens out Clark’s.

In normal weather conditions, the offense should be able to have more success against Maryland’s defense than it did against Northwestern’s. The Terps have given up big passing games (511 passing yards by West Virginia) and rushing games (370 yards by Syracuse) this season and rank in the bottom third nationally in both categories.

I expect an evenly matched game, but with cold and rainy conditions — perhaps even freezing rain — expected, it won’t be as high scoring as it normally would be. It’s basically a coin flip, but I’ll give the edge to Michigan at home on senior day.

Michigan 17 – Maryland 16

Sam:  Didn’t have a chance to write up a full prediction, but his score prediction is below.

Maryland 23 – Michigan 19

Derick:  This season has been nothing short of a disaster for Michigan, as its 5-5 record has unthinkably become a secondary story to off-field issues like playing Shane Morris with a concussion, running Dave Brandon out of town and dismissing Frank Clark for hitting his girlfriend.

Losing Clark will certainly hurt the Wolverines’ pass rush, but this defense has been among the best in the country all season, never allowing an opponent to score more than their season average despite spending most of the game on the field thanks to an anemic offense.

Luckily, one of the greatest pretenders in all of college football is coming to town in the form of the Terrapins. Maryland is 6-4 on paper, but their best wins are against bad Iowa and Penn State teams by seven points and one point, respectively. In fact, when Michigan State walked into Maryland’s night game atmosphere and pounded the Terps 37-15, it was the closest contest the new Big Ten team has had against a ranked opponent.

Ohio State and Wisconsin both dropped 52 points on this Maryland team, so when Michigan is on offense it will be a battle of which unit can be less inept. Michigan has yet to score 20 points on a defense with a pulse this season, but matches up with a Terps team allowing 29 points per game.

Michigan needs this win to become bowl eligible, because an upset in Columbus isn’t on the menu. I think Brady Hoke’s squad will pull out one more for their embattled leader and top Maryland.

Michigan 20 – Maryland 17

Josh: I said Northwestern would be Michigan’s last win and I’m sticking to it. Even without Stefon Diggs I expect Maryland to air it out and connect on a few deep bombs. I wasn’t very high on Frank Clark (as a player) to begin with so I don’t think they will miss him much. He was inconsistent at best and rarely made any noise against decent opponents. The pass rush still leaves much to be desired (by which I mean it leaves a lot to be desired) and I think CJ Brown will have plenty of time to toss it to whoever Blake Countess is covering, how did he go from all-conference player to this?

Michigan doesn’t have an offense to speak of and while I’m sure guys like Devin Gardner will play their hearts out they’re just not very good at what they do. Gardner can’t read defenses and/or find the open guy, etc. etc. We all know the story by now. What started as the place Hoke seemingly couldn’t lose (won his first 19 home games) the Big House has become as unfriendly to the Wolverines as the road has been during Hoke’s tenure. I feel bad for the seniors, and even for Hoke, but as Brady once said, “This is Michigan fergodsakes” and at Michigan what has transpired under Hoke’s watch is not acceptable.

Maryland 27 – Michigan 13

Joe: I want to believe that this team will come out fighting for their coach, fighting for a bowl berth and wanting to go out with a win for the home crowd. I want to believe these things but I just have not seen enough of this over the last month. The offense has been dreadful and the defense has been just good enough to keep things interesting. If Michigan is able to establish the run and control the clock, the defense will take care of the roller coaster ride that is Maryland. You never know what they are going to do from one week to the next. I have serious doubts that Michigan will be able to make this happen and have even less confidence in the passing game. I’d love to see a third straight victory and secure a bowl bid but can’t see it happening. Maryland scores late to win at the Big House.

Maryland 24 – Michigan 17

Michigan-Maryland game preview

November 21st, 2014 by Justin Potts


Game Preview_Maryland_banner

Two games remain in Michigan’s forgettable 2014 season, but if the Wolverines win one of them they can earn a few extra weeks of practice and one final inglorious bowl game. Whether that happens or not, 12 seniors will play their final games in the Big House tomorrow against the Maryland Terrapins. Jake Ryan, Devin Gardner, Brennen Beyer, Raymon Taylor, Delonte Hollowell, Matt Wile, Will Hagerup, Joey Burzynski, Jonathan Keizer, Alex Mitropolous-Rundus, and Alex Swieca will lay their all on the field, fighting for one final game.

UM-Maryland-small-final
Quick Facts
Michigan Stadium – 3:30 p.m. EST – Big Ten Network
Maryland Head Coach: Randy Edsall (4th season)
Coaching Record: 93-98 (19-28 at Maryland)
Offensive Coordinator: Mike Locksley (3rd season)
Defensive Coordinator: Brian Stewart (3rd season)
Returning 2013 Starters: 17 (8 offense, 9 defense)
Last Season: 7-6 (3-5 ACC)
Last Meeting: UM 45 – MD 17 (1990)
All-Time Series: Michigan leads 3-0
Record at Michigan Stadium: Michigan leads 3-0
Current Streak: Michigan 3

With Ohio State looming next Saturday, a Big Ten title and College Football Playoff bid for the taking, Michigan’s best remaining chance for a win is tomorrow. Maryland comes in one game better than Michigan overall at 6-4 and 3-3 in the conference, but the Terps are essentially a reverse of Michigan: better offense but worse defense.

Randy Edsall’s squad won four of its first five games of the season, beating James Madison (52-7), South Florida (24-17), Syracuse (34-20), and Indiana (37-15), and falling to West Virginia (40-37). The win over Indiana gave Maryland its first ever Big Ten victory, but it would be short-lived as the Terps met reality with a 52-24 loss to Ohio State. They got back on track with a 38-31 win over Iowa, but were demolished by Wisconsin, 52-7. Then, Maryland topped Penn State 20-19 in State College, but last week got crushed by Michigan State, 37-15.

A season of ups and downs has Maryland bowl eligible, but needing to win its final two to ensure a winning season.

Michigan and Maryland haven’t met since 1990 when Michigan won 45-17. Michigan has scored just 44 points combined in its past two games. Can Michigan beat the Terps to gain bowl eligibility? Or will Maryland force Michigan to go into Columbus fighting for its life next week? Let’s take a look at the matchup.

Michigan defense vs Maryland offense: When Maryland has the ball

Maryland’s offense ranks 65th nationally in scoring (28.8 points per game), 111th in rushing (113.9 yards per game), 66th in passing (229.8 yards per game), and 111th in total offense (343.7 yards per game). It also ranks 114th in time of possession (27:26), 116th in third-down conversions 31 percent), and 103rd in sacks allowed (2.8 per game). By comparison, Michigan averages 40 more rushing yards, 60 fewer passing yards, converts third downs seven percent better, and has allowed 10 fewer sacks.

The offense is led by quarterback C.J. Brown, who ranks eighth in the Big Ten in passing with 172.3 yards per game. He has completed just 52.7 percent of his passes with 11 touchdowns and nine interceptions. He also leads the team in rushing with 375 yards (3.2 yards per carry) and five touchdowns.

Brown is the only player on the team with more than 100 carries (117), but running backs Wes Brown and Brandon Ross each average about seven carries per game. Ross is the second-leading rusher with 261 yards and two touchdowns, while Brown has 260 yards and four scores. Neither has a 100-yard rushing game this season.

Maryland’s offense took a huge blow a couple weeks ago when leading receiver Stefon Diggs suffered a lacerated kidney and will likely miss the rest of the regular season. Diggs ranked second in the Big Ten with 5.8 receptions per game and fifth with 72.7 yards per game. His five touchdowns led the team. His absence leaves Deon Long to carry the load. Long is the only other player with more than 20 receptions, with 38 for 450 yards and a touchdown. Marcus Leak has the second-most receiving touchdowns — three — which have accounted for one-sixth of his receptions. The fourth-leading pass catcher is Ross, who has 14 receptions for 212 yards and two scores.

Michigan offense vs Maryland defense: When Michigan has the ball

Maryland’s defense ranks 82nd nationally in points per game (29.0), 97th against the run (198.3 yards per game), 83rd against the pass (238.5 yards per game), and 97th in total defense (436.8 yards per game). It holds opponents to a 38 percent third-down conversion rate — the same as Michigan’s defense — and has been pretty good at getting to the quarterback, raining 23rd with 28 sacks — one more than Michigan.

The line hasn’t been able to stop the run with nose tackle Darius Kilgo, who has 37 tackles, seven for loss, and two sacks. But the ends have been pretty good, especially Andre Monroe, who leads the team and ranks second in the Big Ten with 8.5 sacks and ranks second on the team with 11 tackles for loss. The other end, Keith Bowers, has 3.5 tackles for loss and 1.5 sacks.

The linebacking corps is the strength of the defense, led by outside linebacker Yannick Ngakoue, who leads the team and ranks fifth in the conference with 12.5 tackles for loss to go along with 5.5 sacks. The other outside backer, Matt Robinson, has just 26 tackles and 1.5 for loss. In the middle, Cole Farrand and L.A. Goree have a combined 169 tackles and six for loss. They rank sixth and 10th in the Big Ten in tackles, respectively.

Cornerback Sean Davis leads the secondary. His 94 tackles and eight pass breakups lead the team and he ranks fourth in the Big Ten in tackles. The other corner, William Likely, leads the Terps with 12 passes defended, which is also tied for first in the conference. His five interceptions also lead the Big Ten and he has returned two of them for touchdowns. Safeties Zach Dancel and Anthony Nixon have combined for 55 tackles, one for loss, six passes defended, and two takeaways.

Special Teams: The other third

Kicker Brad Craddock hasn’t missed yet this season, having made all 14 attempts with a long of 57. Nine of his 14 field goals have been from 40 yards or longer and the 14 average 39.7 yards. Punter Nathan Renfro ranks seventh in the conference with an average of 41.2 yards per punt. He has landed 20 of his 71 punts inside the 20 and 11 have gone longer than 50 yards.

Likely averages 11 yards per punt return — fourth in the Big Ten — and has returned one for a touchdown. He will take over the main kick return duties from Diggs. His seven kick returns so far this season have averaged 32.6 yards, compared to Diggs’ 23.9.

Prediction

Neither team has a very good offense, especially without Diggs, but the main difference in this one is Michigan’s defense compared to Maryland’s. While it took a big hit with the dismissal of Frank Clark, it’s still much better than what the Terps bring to the table.

The weather calls for cold and rainy conditions, perhaps even freezing rain. That’s not conducive to offense and favors the team with the better defense and the better running game. Maryland’s main advantage is its passing game, but that should be negated by the weather.

I expect another ugly offensive game by both teams, similar to the Michigan-Northwestern game. On senior day in Michigan Stadium, Michigan will find a way to pull it out and become bowl eligible.

Michigan 17 – Maryland 16

Veteran led: Michigan 71 – Detroit 62

November 20th, 2014 by Sam Sedlecky


LeVert-Irvin vs Detroit(MGoBlue.com)

The test was going to come sooner or later. Michigan, a young team that has looked the part, struggled right out of the gates this year against Hillsdale before settling in and rolling the completely over-matched opponent. In their second game, the Wolverines stashed away Bucknell early.

But tonight, the Maize and Blue were given all they could handle by an upstart Detroit team hungry for some headlines.

Ultimately, Michigan survived with a 71-62 win, but it was far from pretty.

Right out of the gates, the Titans showed that they came to play for real; this wasn’t going to be recess for the home squad. After former Michigan target Patrick Ackerman opened the scoring, he made another bucket to tie it up at 4-4 three minutes into the game. Following a Derrick Walton three-pointer, Juwan Howard, Jr. and Jarod Williams both nailed triples of their own to put Detroit up three.

It started a theme that would last throughout the night.

Michigan would answer, Detroit would take the hit, Detroit would take another lead, Michigan would claw back.

Four Factors
Michigan Detroit
51.9 eFG% 51.9
28.1 OReb% 6.7
15.6 TO% 17.2
37.7 FTR 15.1

In between the buckets, however, was a lot of ugly. The two teams combined to shoot just a hair over 38 percent while turning it over 11 times in the first half, but Detroit’s one-point lead going into halftime could be chalked up to their 5-of-9 mark from downtown to Michigan’s woeful 3-of-12.

Out of the break, there was a sense that Michigan would shake off the rust and run away with it, just as Oregon had done earlier this week after being tied with the Titans at the half and ending up with a 17-point victory. A Walton three right away strengthened that feeling.

Then Brandan Kearney, a former Michigan State player, matched the triple with one of his own. Howard Jr. followed by hitting an and-one of his own to put Detroit up four again.

Kameron Chatman came out of the game after the foul and Michigan went to a no-freshmen-allowed lineup a couple minutes later when Max Bielfeldt replaced Mark Donnal. Coach John Beilein wouldn’t put another freshman back in for nearly nine minutes.

With the veteran lineup, Michigan finally started to build a little bit of cushion. Bielfeldt caught a beautiful over the shoulder pass from Spike Albrecht and made the open layup look easier than it was. Caris LeVert stole a pass on the next possession and went coast-to-coast for a lay-in en route to scoring 10 straight and helping the home team to a nine-point lead.

A minute later, Zak Irvin flushed home a dunk from Albrecht before Kearney, Albrecht, and then Howard, Jr. made three straight triples to cut the lead to six.

Detroit was far from waving the white flag. Within five minutes, the Titans made up the difference and tied it up at 52 with 5:19 left – largely behind the leadership and scoring of Juwan Howard, Jr., who made eight straight points in that stretch and finished with a game-high 24 points on 23 shots.

But Howard’s success soon became Detroit’s downfall, as the senior and son of Fab Fiver Juwan Howard missed a couple circus shots over the next couple possessions, allowing Michigan to jump out to an 11-point advantage just two minutes later on a pair of Zak Irvin threes, a beautiful coast-to-coast finish from Walton, and three LeVert free throws.

Albrecht’s in-your-eye three with 1:27 left served as the unofficial dagger – and boosted his own confidence after he’d been passing up open looks in practice according to Beilein.

When it was all said and done, Michigan’s nine-point victory looked a lot more comfortable than it was. But that’s what happens when a young roster limits your options.

After escaping, Spike Albrecht noted that it’s a lot better to learn from a challenging win rather than a tough loss.

Beilein, as usual, praised Detroit for the terrific battle, but he would have done the same if Michigan won by 35. In reality, though, Detroit is not one of the better teams Michigan will face this year – even before Big Ten season.

If the Wolverines are to continue escaping challenges against the likes of Oregon, Villanova or VCU, SMU, and Arizona, they’ll have to play a lot better a lot earlier.

The talent is there, especially among Irvin, Walton, and LeVert. But the Wolverines needs to shore up the consistency.

Quick Hitters:

• John Beilein is starting to whittle down on the rotation, and tonight, only nine Wolverines saw minutes after at least 11 did in Michigan’s first two games. Freshmen Aubrey Dawkins and Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman rode the pine all night while classmates D.J. Wilson and Ricky Doyle only saw seven combined minutes. Meanwhile, the veterans’ minutes continue to increase, as Zak Irvin, Spike Albrecht, and Caris LeVert played more than 30 minutes and Derrick Walton played all 40 minutes.

The big man rotation is still far from being solved. Max Bielfeldt was the first big off the bench again and led all centers with 20 minutes, while Mark Donnal played 15, Doyle played two, and Wilson played three minutes at the five.

Kameron Chatman and Derrick Walton rimmed out back-to-back three-pointers in the first half that perhaps went further down than I’ve ever seen in my life before popping out.

Three Stars:

***Caris LeVert***
21 points (7-of-13 FG, 1-of-3 3pt, 6-of-7 FT), nine rebounds (one offensive), three assists, one steal, three turnovers in 38 minutes

**Derrick Walton, Jr.**
16 points (4-of-10 FG, 2-of-5 3pt, 6-of-7 FT), six rebounds, three assists, two turnovers in 40 minutes

*Zak Irvin*
18 points (6-of-16 FG, 4-of-10 3pt, 2-of-4 FT), three rebounds (one offensive), one assist, three turnovers in 38 minutes

Final Game Stats
# Name FG-FGA 3FG-3FGA FT-FTA OR DR TOT PF TP A TO BLK S MIN
03 Kameron Chatman* 1-4 0-3 2-2 1 3 4 1 4 1 1 0 0 10
34 Mark Donnal* 1-2 0-0 0-0 1 2 3 0 2 0 0 1 1 15
10 Derrick Walton Jr* 4-10 2-5 6-7 0 6 6 3 16 3 2 0 0 40
21 Zak Irvin* 6-16 4-10 2-4 1 2 3 1 18 1 3 0 0 38
23 Caris LeVert* 7-13 1-3 6-7 1 8 9 2 21 3 3 0 1 38
02 Spike Albrecht 2-5 2-3 0-0 1 3 4 2 6 4 1 0 1 32
05 D.J. Wilson 0-0 0-0 0-0 0 1 1 3 0 0 1 1 0 5
32 Ricky Doyle 0-0 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2
44 Max Bielfeldt 2-3 0-0 0-0 2 3 5 1 4 2 0 1 0 20
Totals 23-53 9-24 16-20 9 28 37 13 71 14 11 3 3 200
Detroit 23-53 9-19 7-8 2 23 25 20 62 14 11 1 4 200
Full Stats
Beilein Tie Watch:
Beilein vs Detroit

(Sam Sedlecky, M&GB)

Michigan hoops preview: Detroit

November 20th, 2014 by Justin Potts


UM-Detroit
Michigan (2-0) vs Detroit (1-1)
Thursday, Nov. 20 | Ann Arbor, Mich. | 6:00 p.m. EST | Big Ten Network
Offense
84.5 Points/gm 71.5
(59-121) 48.8 Field Goal % 43.8 (53-121)
(19-37) 51.4 3-pt FG % 38.2 (13-34)
(32-43) 74.4 Free Throw % 68.6 (24-35)
16.0 FT Made/gm 12.0
36.0 Reb/gm 38.5
17.0 Assists/gm 10.0
6.0 Turnovers/gm 14.0
Defense (2013-14)
60.5 Points/gm 68.5
(46-106) 43.4 Field Goal % 42.5 (51-120)
(16-43) 37.2 3-pt FG % 33.3 (19-57)
28.5 Opp. Reb/gm 37.5
9.0 Steals/gm 8.5
4.0 Blocks/gm 2.5
Individual Leaders
Zak Irvin (22.0), Derrick Walton Jr (18.5) Points/gm Anton Wilson (17.0), Juwan Howard Jr (16.0)
Caris LeVert (7.0), Derrick Walton Jr (6.0) Reb/gm Matthew Grant (6.0), Juwan Howard Jr (5.0)

___________________________________________________________________________________

Michigan opened the regional round of the Progressive Legends Classic on Monday with a 77-53 win over Bucknell. Tonight, the Wolverines host Detroit — where assistant coach Bacari Alexander played the final two seasons of his college career — in the second game. Like Michigan, Detroit began its season with a much smaller school. Detroit beat Rochester College of the NAIA, 77-54, before falling to Oregon 83-66 on Monday night.

Junior guard Anton Wilson has been the star so far for the Titans. The 6’5″, 206-pound Flint native scored 20 points in the opener and 14 against Oregon while shooting 66.7 percent from the field and making 8-of-10 three-pointers.

Juwan Howard Jr., a name Michigan fans will recognize, is the son of Fab Five member Juwan Howard. The 6’5″, 232-pound senior forward scored 16 points in each of the first two games while attempting a team-high 30 shots.

The rest of the starting lineup hasn’t provided much scoring. Senior guard Brandon Kearney, sophomore point guard Matthew Grant, and junior center Patrick Ackerman average just 7.5 points combined. Kearney (6’6″, 188) has made just 2-of-13 shots and none of his five three-point attempts. Four of his eight points have come from the free throw line. Grant (6’0″, 177) has made 2-of-8 overall and 1-of-3 from three-point range, while Ackerman (6’10″, 218) has yet to score in 42 minutes of action. He has also pulled down just six rebounds despite being 6’10″, while Grant — the point guard — leads the team with 12 boards.

The rest of Detroit’s scoring comes from the bench. Freshman wing Paris Bass (6’7″, 187) is the third-leading scorer at 10.5 points per game. He scored 13 in the opener on 6-of-10 shooting and eight against Oregon. Sophomore point guard Jarod Williams managed just three points in the opener but scored 15 on 6-of-9 shooting against Oregon.

The rotation is rounded out by 6’6″, 233-pound freshman forward Jaleel Hogan and 6’2″, 204-pound junior Carlton Brundidge, a Michigan transfer. Both are averaging 5.5 points in about 16 minutes per game.

Michigan has won its last 13 matchups against Detroit, but the two haven’t played since the 2009-10 season when Michigan won 75-64. Michigan holds a 25-3 lead in the overall series with the last Detroit win coming on Dec. 19, 1981.

After a 13-19 season a year ago, Detroit was picked to finish third in the Horizon League this season behind Green Bay and Cleveland State. Howard Jr was picked for the Horizon League preseason first team.

Former Michigan All-American Campy Russell will be honored at halftime as Michigan’s Legend of the Game. As a freshman in 1972-73, Russell averaged 18.4 points and 9.6 rebounds per game, breaking all of Michigan’s freshman scoring and rebounding records. During the 1973-74 season, he led the Big Ten with 23.7 points per game and added 11.1 rebounds per game, earning consensus All-American honors. He led Michigan to the 1974 Big Ten title.

The game will be televised by Big Ten Network.

Big Ten power rankings: Week 12

November 20th, 2014 by Derick Hutchinson


Power Rankings_header

East Division
1. Ohio State (9-1, 6-0) – Even
Last Week: Beat #25 Minnesota 31-24 This Week: Sat vs Indiana (3-7, 0-6), 12pm, Big Ten Network

Ohio State maintained the inside track to the Big Ten title game by outlasting a scrappy Minnesota team in the snowy conditions of Minneapolis. The Buckeyes have their eyes on a Big Ten championship and a spot in the first college football playoff.

2. Michigan State (8-2, 5-1) – Even
Last Week: Beat Maryland 37-15 This Week: Sat vs Rutgers (6-4, 2-4), 12pm, Big Ten Network

A night game on the road after a disappointing loss could have turned into a disaster for the Spartans, but they took care of Maryland with ease and kept their slim hopes at a title alive.

3. Michigan (5-5, 3-3) – Even
Last Week: Bye This Week: Sat vs Maryland (6-4, 3-3), 3:30pm, Big Ten Network

During the bye week, Michigan watched its in-state rival draw up a perfect script for beating Maryland. If the Wolverines can take care of the Terps on Senior Day, it’ll mean a trip to a bowl game next month.

4. Maryland (6-4, 3-3) – Even
Last Week: Lost to #12 Michigan State 15-37 This Week: Sat at Michigan (5-5, 3-3), 3:30pm, Big Ten Network

Maryland blew its final chance to pick up a statement win Saturday, when they were handled by the Spartans during a black out in their own stadium. Now third place in the East is up for grabs in Ann Arbor.

5. Penn State (6-4, 2-4) – Even
Last Week: Beat Temple 30-13 This Week: Sat at Illinois (4-6, 1-5), 12pm, ESPN2

Penn State finally qualified for a bowl game with a second straight win Saturday, beating Temple to move to 6-4. The Nittany Lions will count on their defense to assure themselves a winning record against Illinois this weekend.

6. Rutgers (6-4, 2-4) – Even
Last Week: Beat Indiana 45-23 This Week: Sat at #11 Michigan State (8-2, 5-1), 12pm, Big Ten Network

Fans of the Scarlett Knights were starting to get a little uncomfortable after the team’s three-game losing streak put their bowl chances in jeopardy. But a win over Indiana but those worries at bay as Rutgers draws the unenviable Week 13 task of traveling to East Lansing.

7. Indiana (3-7, 0-6) – Even
Last Week: Lost to Rutgers 23-45 This Week: Sat at #6 Ohio State (9-1, 6-0), 12pm, Big Ten Network

Everyone knew it was going to happen, but a loss on Saturday made it official: Indiana will not go bowling this year. Injuries to their top two quarterback options have sunk a Hoosiers’ offense that carried the team through the first half of the season.

B1G East Week 12

West Division
1. Wisconsin (8-2, 5-1) – Up 2
Last Week: Beat #16 Nebraska 59-24 This Week: Sat at Iowa (7-3, 4-2), 3:30pm, ABC/ESPN2

Wisconsin made a huge statement Saturday when it welcomed Nebraska to town and waxed the Cornhuskers 59-24. Melvin Gordon stole the show, rushing for an NCAA record 408 yards en route to four scores.

2. Minnesota (7-3, 4-2) – Even
Last Week: Lost to #8 Ohio State 24-31 This Week: Sat at #23 Nebraska (8-2, 4-2), 12pm, ESPN

Minnesota hung with the only undefeated team in the Big Ten all game Saturday, but just couldn’t conjure up enough offense to pull the upset. The Gophers still control their own destiny in the West, as trips to Nebraska and Wisconsin loom.

3. Iowa (7-3, 4-2) – Down 1
Last Week: Beat Illinois 30-14 This Week: Sat vs #16 Wisconsin (8-2, 5-1), 3:30pm, ABC/ESPN2

Iowa bounced back from a loss to Minnesota by beating up on the Illini 30-14. Now, if Iowa can beat Wisconsin and Nebraska at home to finish the season, it’ll be just a Gophers loss away from winning the West.

4. Nebraska (8-2, 4-2) – Down 3
Last Week: Lost to #20 Wisconsin 24-59 This Week: Sat vs #25 Minnesota (7-3, 4-2), 12pm, ESPN

The whole country saw Nebraska play punching bag for the Badgers Saturday. The Cornhuskers were exposed as pretenders in the Big Ten and still have no quality wins to beef up their resume.

5. Northwestern (4-6, 2-4) – Up 1
Last Week: Beat #18 Notre Dame 43-40 OT This Week: Sat at Purdue (3-7, 1-5), 12pm, ESPNU

Just when it looked like Northwestern had hit rock bottom after a 10-9 home loss to Michigan, the Wildcats came out of nowhere to upset a ranked Notre Dame team. Now only games against Purdue and Illinois, the two worst teams in the West, stand between Northwestern and the postseason.

6. Illinois (4-6, 1-5) – Down 1
Last Week: Lost to Iowa 14-30 This Week: Sat vs Penn State (6-4, 2-4), 12pm, ESPN2

Illinois got pounded again Saturday, this time at the hands of the Iowa Hawkeyes. Now Penn State visits the Illini for Senior Night.

7. Purdue (3-7, 1-5) – Down 2
Last Week: Bye This Week: Sat vs Northwestern (4-6, 2-4), 12pm, ESPNU

Purdue took another bye week this weekend to think about its current four-game losing streak. Last time the Boilermakers came out of a bye they got crushed by 21 points on the road.

B1G West Week 12

Final Look: Northwestern

November 19th, 2014 by Justin Potts


Michigan-Northwestern(MGoBlue.com)

Michigan topped Northwestern last Saturday in one of the ugliest offensive games played this season by both teams. The Wolverines get a bye week this week to rest up and prepare for the final two games of the season, of which they must win at least one to gain bowl eligibility. But instead of taking a bye week myself, I decided to torture myself during the by week by diving deeper into the advanced stats from Michigan’s 10-9 win in Evanston. And you get to read it. Luck you.

Advanced Statistics
Michigan Stat (National Average) Northwestern
59 Total Plays 84
 42.2 Avg. Starting Field Position (29.9) 28.1
15 Possessions 14
7 Scoring Opportunities 3
 1.4 Points per Opportunity (4.69) 3.0
 67.2% Leverage Rate (68.2%) 65.1%
 39.7% Success Rate (41.9%) 41.0%
 21.0% Success Rate Passing Downs (30.6%) 24.1%
 48.7% Success Rate Standard Downs (47.1%) 50.0%
 33.3% Success Rate Passing (40.2%) 50.9%
44.1% Success Rate Rushing (43.5%) 21.4%
3 Turnovers 3
14.5 Equivalent Points 12.3
0.25 Equivalent Points Per Play 0.15

As I’ve said before, I’m working to expand this section in the future, and hoping to put in some work to go back and calculate the previous games this season as well as last season so I can draw comparisons between this year’s offense and last year’s. The stats and formulas used are from Football Outsiders and Football Study Hall.

Northwestern ran 25 more plays than Michigan but didn’t score until its final two possessions, which went for 19 plays and 14 plays. Michigan had a huge advantage in field position, but didn’t take advantage of it until Tony Jones fumbled a punt and Michigan took possession at the Northwestern 21 and scored two plays later. Michigan had seven scoring opportunities and only scored on two of them, while Northwestern had only three, but scored on two. Michigan had a slightly better leverage rage* but Northwestern had the better overall success rate** on everything except rushing.

*Leverage Rate: Standard downs/(Standard downs + passing downs)
**Success Rate: 50% of necessary yards on first down, 70% on second down, 100% on third or fourth down
***Passing Down is considered 2nd & 7 or more, 3rd & 5 or more, 4th & 5 or more

Let’s take a look at the Five Factors.

Five Factors
Michigan Stat Northwestern
4.4 Yards Per Play 3.2
 39.7% Success Rate 41.0%
42.2 Avg Starting Field Position 28.1
1.4 Points Per Opportunity 3.0
Even Turnover Margin Even

Michigan won two of the five factors, lost two, and tied one. Per Football Study Hall, here are the chances of winning based on each of these five factors:

Yards Per Play (weighted 35%)
• Michigan +1.2 = 86.2 percent chance of winning, with an average scoring margin of 13.2 (Michigan won by 1).

Success Rate (25%)
 Northwestern +1.3% = 59.2 percent chance of winning, with an average scoring margin of 3.6 (Northwestern lost by 1).

Average Starting Field Position (15%)
 Michigan +14.1 = 86.7 percent chance of winning, with an average scoring margin of 19.9 (Michigan won by 1).

Points Per Opportunity (15%)
 Northwestern +1.6 = 74.7 percent chance of winning, with an average scoring margin of 11.4 (Northwestern lost by 1).
However, Michigan had more scoring opportunities (seven to three) and a worse scoring average, which equates to a winning percentage of 64.8.

Turnover Margin (10%)
 Even = 50 percent chance of winning, with an average scoring margin of 0 (Michigan won by 1).

Michigan won two — Yards per Play (35 percent) and Field Position (15 percent) — and tied turnover margin (5 percent). Added together, that equates to a 55 percent overall chance of winning, which they did by one point. Northwestern won two — Success Rate (25 percent) and PPO (15 percent) — and tied turnover margin (5 percent). Added together, that equates to a 45 percent chance of winning. They lost by one.

Sometimes the advanced stats show an outlier that can help explain the outcome of a game. But this game was about as even as it gets with neither team having much success offensively, and the advanced stats prove exactly that.

Drive Chart
NU
UM
NU
UM
NU
UM
NU
UM
NU
UM
NU
UM
NU
UM
NU
UM
NU
UM
NU
UM
UM
NU
UM
NU
UM
NU
UM
NU
UM

*Hover over team initials to see drive statistics, Dash indicates direction of drive, Green dash = scoring play, Grey = punt, Red = turnover, Pink = missed field goal, Black = end of half or turnover on downs, Shaded line = special teams or defensive touchdown

The numbers game

12: Michigan allowed a season-low 12 rushing yards

150: Michigan rushed for at least 150 yards in back-to-back games for the first time this season

45: Jake Ryan’s career tackles for loss, moving into a tie for sixth in Michigan’s record book with Glen Steele (1994-97)

121: De’Veon Smith rushed for a career-high 121 yards

2: Mario Ojemudia recorded the first two sacks of his career

6: Michigan has won six straight games at Northwestern

732: Devin Gardner passed Todd Collins (1991-94) and Tom Brady (1996-99) for fifth place in career passing attempts with 732

Maximized: Michigan 77 – Bucknell 53

November 18th, 2014 by Sam Sedlecky


Max Bielfeldt vs Bucknell(MGoBlue.com)

Following a shaky start in the first regular season game of the year (against a DII school) for Michigan that saw Hillsdale hold strong for about half of the first half, many thought that last night’s matchup with the Patriot League’s Bucknell Bison would be perhaps even more interesting – and for even longer.

After all, Bucknell is much more experienced and runs a terrific program under coach Dave Paulsen.

Those thoughts didn’t last too long.

Michigan raced out to a 10-0 lead on five quick points from Zak Irvin and a triple from Max Bielfeldt – which would become the surprise theme of the night. Just over halfway into the opening stanza, Derrick Walton’s and-one layup gave Michigan 27 points; Bucknell had yet to reach double figures.

The rest of the game was semantics, as Michigan was never threatened and rolled to a 24-point win, 77-53, in the first round of the Legends Classic.

Zak Irvin led the way with an efficient 23 points on 13 shots while Derrick Walton chipped in 15 and a game-high eight rebounds.

Four Factors
Michigan Bucknell
52.4 eFG% 45.8
32.4 OReb% 13.3
9.1 TO% 25.8
28.6 FTR 25.0

But it was Bielfeldt who really stole the show from the get-go. The reclassified senior (Bielfeldt redshirted his freshman year during the 2010-11 season but will be free to transfer after this year for one graduate season, per John Beilein), whose previous career high was four points (on three occasions), poured in 18 points on an incredible 7-of-9 night from the field, including a 3-of-3 mark from downtown. Those three triples matched his career totals over two seasons of play.

In a head-scratching move, Bielfeldt was the first man off the bench when Mark Donnal picked up an early foul after he didn’t even get on the floor against Hillsdale and saw very limited action in the exhibition opener. When Bielfeldt fired up a three early on, even more questions were raised, but it found nothing by nylon. A couple minutes later, Bielfeldt let it fly again…money. Two possessions following, Spike Albrecht found Bielfeldt wide open underneath with a pretty over-the-shoulder pass from underneath the rim. Bielfeldt appeased the crowd with a thunderous slam.

Despite the where-did-this-come-from looks, John Beilein made it clear after the game that Bielfeldt earned the minutes and the sixth man spot after a couple impressive days in practice.

“The last couple of days of practice, he has virtually been a man-child playing with our guys. He has just been very, very good.”

Bielfeldt himself credited the big night to his feeling healthy and well-balanced on his feet following offseason surgery on his hip that had plagued him for years. He even attributed that bum hip to the reason for redshirting his first year.

Now that he’s healthy for the first time in a while, Bielfeldt should see increased looks in a far-from-solidified front court rotation. But Beilein isn’t ready to make any knee-jerk changes just yet.

“I’d like to see this consistently in practice over and over again. We know that that’s been the issue…I think he had great confidence today. Sometimes, as a senior, that just happens. We’ll wait and see how it plays out. I won’t make be making any knee-jerk (reactions), but I assume he’ll be in the game with Detroit.”

For now, all signs still point to redshirt freshman Mark Donnal remaining in the starting five, but his 11 minutes were completely over-shadowed by Bielfeldt while Ricky Doyle and D.J. Wilson saw nine and eight minutes, respectively.

While the season is still very early, however, it remains clear that Michigan’s strength is going to lie in the backcourt. Irvin was exceptional again, shooting confidently from all over the floor and flying for five rebounds. Walton, though he struggled a bit at the free throw line, showed off his improved finishing ability and also did his part in cleaning up the glass. And despite a quiet scoring night from Caris LeVert, the junior’s six rebounds, six assists, and two steals, along with a second straight zero-turnover performance, did not go unnoticed.

The Bison looked over-matched and unsure of themselves from right out of the gates, and a double-digit scorer didn’t emerge until Pellston, Michigan native Chris Hass rained down four threes and a mid-range jumper in a 2-minute, 28-second span of five straight possessions late in the second half.

Now that the young Wolverines have a couple games of experience under their belts, they’ll look to take down the Legends Classic after a matchup with Detroit on Thursday evening.

The guards certainly look ready for the challenges that Oregon and either VCU or Villanova will present, but a little may be needed from down low. Perhaps the answer is in the calves.

Quick Hitters:

• It was another quiet night for Michigan’s six true freshmen, as they only managed a combined nine points on 12 shots, with seven coming on bunnies from Ricky Doyle. Kam Chatman remains the best option at the four, and looks comfortable for the most part, but is still learning the offense and finding his spots to attack. Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman and Aubrey Dawkins played a total of just nine minutes late in the second half and each recorded a turnover. In all, five of Michigan’s six team turnovers were freshmen mistakes.

• Spike Albrecht’s shooting woes continued, as he hit just one of his five shots and none of his two triple tries, but his 29 minutes and 6:0 assist-to-turnover margin show Beilein’s great confidence in him. He remains the only rotation guard to not make a three yet.

Three Stars:

***Zak Irvin***
23 points (8-of-13 FG, 4-of-5 3pt, 3-of-4 FT), five rebounds (one offensive), one assist, one block, zero turnovers in 23 minutes

**Max Bielfeldt**
18 points (7-of-9 FG, 3-of-3 3pt, 1-of-2 FT), three rebounds (two offensive), zero turnovers in 16 minutes

*Derrick Walton, Jr.*
15 points (5-of-9 FG, 1-of-2 3pt, 4-of-7 FT), eight rebounds (one offensive), two assists, two steals, one turnover in 35 minutes

Final Game Stats
# Name FG-FGA 3FG-3FGA FT-FTA OR DR TOT PF TP A TO BLK S MIN
03 Kameron Chatman* 1-5 0-1 0-0 0 1 1 1 2 3 2 0 2 20
34 Mark Donnal* 2-4 0-1 0-1 3 1 4 3 4 0 0 2 0 11
10 Derrick Walton Jr* 5-9 1-2 4-7 1 7 8 0 15 2 1 0 2 35
21 Zak Irvin* 8-13 4-5 3-4 1 4 5 0 23 1 0 1 0 32
23 Caris LeVert* 2-11 0-3 2-2 0 6 6 1 6 6 0 0 2 30
02 Spike Albrecht 1-5 0-2 0-0 0 3 3 2 2 6 0 0 1 29
05 D.J. Wilson 0-1 0-1 0-0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 8
12 M-A Abdur-Rahkman 0-2 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 4
20 Sean Lonergan 0-0 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
24 Aubrey Dawkins 0-0 0-0 0-0 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 5
30 Austin Hatch 0-0 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
32 Ricky Doyle 3-4 0-0 1-2 2 2 4 2 7 0 1 0 0 9
44 Max Bielfeldt 7-9 3-3 1-2 2 1 3 3 18 0 0 0 0 16
Totals 29-63 8-18 11-18 11 26 37 13 77 18 6 4 7 200
Bucknell 19-48 6-20 9-12 4 25 29 21 53 10 17 1 1 200
Full Stats
Beilein Tie Watch:
(Sam Sedlecky, M&GB)

(Sam Sedlecky, M&GB)

Tailgate Tuesday: Caveman cowboy ribeye

November 18th, 2014 by MmmGoBluBBQ


TailgateTuesday_banner-Week12

Tailgate Tuesday is our weekly collaboration with Joe from MmmGoBluBBQ. These will be posted each Tuesday throughout the season and each recipe will be themed around that week’s opponent. 

Previously: Hot-’n-Fast pulled pork with Carolina mustard slawIrish stout pepper beefSpatchcock RedHawkGrilled RavioliSmoked “Land of 10,000 Lakes” Catfishpork loin with mustard glazeBrady Back Ribs,Moink Balls (a.k.a. Moinks)Caveman style Tri-Tip, Crockpot reuben dip.

The CAVEMAN Style of grilling is my new favorite way to cook steaks. Not only does it produce one of the most tender steaks ever, but it will impress any BBQ guests that are lucky enough to be on that day’s invite list. The concept is simple. We are going to cook this beauty like the cavemen did back in the day. Directly on the fire. The key to this recipe is using LUMP CHARCOAL ONLY. Lump charcoal does not ash like your regular briquettes and burns much hotter. It’s a more pure form of charcoal and will produce a great tasting char on the exterior of the meat.

Ingredients:

• Steak (ribeye, t-bone or flank steak)
• Salt ‘n pepper
• Compound butter (mix and refrigerate)
• 1 stick of butter (room temp)
• 3 Tbsp of your favorite BBQ rub

Directions

Set your grill up for direct heat. Light your lump charcoal up until they are WHITE hot. As the coals are heating up, remove your steak from the fridge and let it rest for about 15 minutes on the counter. We want to bring the meat temperature closer to room temperature. Once the coals are white hot, even them out as much as you can so that we have an even cooking surface. It doesn’t have to be perfect.

Season your steak with salt and pepper or a good steak rub. Use more than you normally would as a good amount will fall off during the cooking process. I double up my normal seasoning for this recipe. Once your steak is seasoned, toss it on the coals direct.

Make sure you have a long set of tongs handy as the temps are extremely hot. This style of cooking does not take long. The amount of time you leave it on the coals depends on how thick your steak is and the doneness that you prefer. I went with 3-4 mins per side for this big boy.

Caveman cowboy ribeye 1-2-3

If it starts to get overly well done, you can remove it from the coals and finish on the grates. I like to keep my Thermapen handy for this recipe to check the internal temperature after about six minutes. I was looking for a 130 degrees on this one. Remember, the temperature will continue to rise about 5-7 degrees after you remove it from the heat.

Once it was removed, I added a few pats of the compound butter. This added some great flavor and could be added to just about anything coming off the grill. It’s TASTY!!!! Make sure and remove from the heat when you do this and let it rest. The key to a tender steak is letting it rest for at least five minutes. I let it rest for 10 minutes because it was so thick. It was a long 10 minutes!

I sliced it off the bone and shared with some great friends and family. This cowboy ribeye was ridiculous. Super tender and full of flavor. I’ve done this with t-bones, ribeye’s and flank steaks with huge success.

Caveman cowboy ribeye 4-5-6

Give this a try and let me know how you like it. If you like a good crust on the exterior of your meat, this one is for you. GO BLUE!!!!

For more great recipes, photos, and barbecue ideas, follow Joe on Twitter at @mmmgoblubbq. And don’t forget to check out his site, MmmGoBluBBQ, for recipes, product reviews, and more.

Five-Spot Challenge 2014: Maryland

November 18th, 2014 by Justin Potts


Five-SpotChallenge_Banner1

Congratulations to our first two-time winner of the season, Freezer566. His total deviation of 45 was the second lowest of any week this season and bested Maizenblu62 by 10. Freezer566 was the closest to Amara Darboh’s receiving yards (41) with his prediction of 40, and also the closest to Drake Johnson’s rushing yards (30) with his prediction of 37. He wins a $20 gift card to The M Den.

Three contestants were each just one away from Michigan’s second half total yards. Bigboyblue, MichiganMack, and tooty_pops all predicted 150, which was only one higher than Michigan’s 149 second half yards. Boggie’s prediction of 260 was the closest to Northwestern’s full-game total yards (264), while bluwolf77 and MEKMichigan were each just one away from predicting the longest play from scrimmage (34 yards).

All 16 participants picked Michigan to win with an average score of Michigan 28 – Northwestern 19. No one predicted such a low-scoring game.

The weekly results and the overall standings have been updated.

After a bye week, Michigan hosts Maryland this Saturday. Here are this week’s questions:

Derick’s 3 Thoughts: Bucknell

November 17th, 2014 by Derick Hutchinson


UM-Bucknell

Fans got their first look of the 2014-15 Michigan basketball team on Saturday afternoon, when the Wolverines discarded Hillsdale College 92-68. Now Bucknell comes to town after winning their opener in a much closer battle: 75-72 over Marist.

John Beilein’s teams haven’t always jumped out to fast starts. In 2013 Michigan was 6-4 and the season seemed to be spinning out of control before the Wolverines righted the ship and won the Big Ten by three games.

Game two comes to Crisler on Monday night as the Bison prepare to take on the offensively-charged Wolverines. Michigan will look to build off a strong finish against Hillsdale and avoid another slow start. Here are three thoughts to keep in mind while Michigan and Bucknell battle on the hardwood.

1. Don’t overlook the Bison

Michigan is one of the top contenders in the best conference in college basketball, so it should have no problem disposing of Bucknell in the Crisler Center. But the Wolverines can’t come into this matchup unprepared and disappear for stretches like they did against Division II Hillsdale.

Bucknell has won 20 or more games in three of their last four seasons and upset the Big Ten’s Penn State in Happy Valley last season. That win came in the second game of the year, when the teams were still working to find their identities. Michigan needs to come out of the tunnel strong and put the Bison away early.

Beilein won’t simply be able to put Caris LeVert on Bucknell’s top scorer to shut down the opposing offense Monday, as five players scored in double figures for the Bison in their opener against Marist. LeVert stifled Hillsdale’s Stedman Lowry after the freshman scored 11 of his team’s first 15 points in the opening five minutes.

Beilein’s young team will have plenty of chances to beat up on inferior competition, but it will want to bring it’s A game against the perennial Patriot League powerhouse Monday night.

Former Michigan graduate assistant Dave Paulsen returns to the Crisler Center as head coach of Bucknell

Former Michigan graduate assistant Dave Paulsen returns to the Crisler Center as Bucknell’s head coach (Getty Images)

2. Find a way to get the post involved

Michigan’s guards put on quite an offensive show in the opener, as Derrick Walton, Zak Irvin and LeVert each scored at least 20 points and combined for 63 points, 13 rebounds and 13 assists. LeVert even made a bid for a triple-double, falling just two boards and a dime short on the night.

But as the nonconference schedule continues, Michigan should look to establish its trio of 6’9″ post players as stiffer competition looms. When the Big Ten season starts, the Wolverines will need contributions from the big men, even against elite post players like Wisconsin’s Frank Kaminsky, Purdue’s A.J. Hammons and Northwestern’s Alex Olah.

Yes, the offense will run through the talented guards all season, as it did through Trey Burke in 2012 and Nik Stauskas last season. But if Michigan can add an offensive presence in the paint, it will free up even more open shots for the sharpshooters.

Take a look at the performance of the big men on Saturday. Mark Donnal, Ricky Doyle and D.J. Wilson combined to shoot six for eight from the field, scoring 18 points. If that trio continues to score with such efficiency, Michigan should really use these early-season games to develop the three freshmen.

Donnal and Doyle spent most of their time in the paint, grabbing five rebounds in 35 combined minutes on the floor. If Michigan works those two into the offense, it will be much more difficult for opposing teams to cheat toward the countless three-point threats around the arc in Beilein’s sceme.

Wilson, on the other hand, is much more likely to factor into the offense with a bigger role. The versatile forward played just nine minutes against Hillsdale, but can score inside and out, even knocking in a couple of three-pointers from the corner against Wayne State in the team’s exhibition matchup.

If Michigan doesn’t get the post involved during the early games when Michigan clearly holds the upper hand, then it will never happen. Tonight is the first chance to really help the three forwards spark their offense at the college level.

3. Keep up that freshmen hustle

One of the most documented themes of this Michigan basketball season is the youth of Beilein’s roster. A roster that lacks any seniors (counting Max Bielfeldt as a redshirt junior) will definitely hit some speed bumps due to lack of experience. But the important thing is to make up for that hole with hustle plays.

Beilein played six freshmen Saturday that figure to take on significant roles this season in Kameron Chatman, Aubrey Dawkins, Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman, Wilson, Doyle and Donnal. Those players demonstrated their enthusiasm to be playing major college basketball against Hillsdale, stuffing the boxscore with what you might call “hustle stats.”

Perhaps the most important number from this group was eight: The total offensive rebounds the Wolverines pulled down in the opener. Donnal led the team with three offensive boards, Abdur-Rahkman added two and Wilson and Chatman each had one. The rest of the team failed to record an offensive rebound, but the hustle of those four players gave Michigan eight extra possessions for its deadly offense.

On the other side of the court, Donnal and Chatman led the charge on defense with a combined six steals. For a Wolverines defense that struggled to contain shooters, steals were the most effective way to stifle the Chargers’ offense. As coach Bacari Alexander said at halftime of the opener, the offense was sparked by these steals as the defense turned directly into points on the other end.

Chatman’s four steals were particularly impressive as he struggled on offense in his first college game, making one of seven field goal attempts and scoring just four points. Chatman showed great maturity, not letting his shooting woes stop him from making a major impact on the defensive end.