What seemed like a good idea two years ago and we were cautiously excited about after going 11-2 last season, was in reality a disaster from start to finish on Saturday night. Michigan forced a three-and-out on Alabama’s first drive, but it quickly went downhill from there. We all know the story. We all watched in disbelief as the snowball got bigger and bigger and became an avalanche. And then halftime mercifully came.

When all was said and done, Michigan limped away battered and bruised, both physically and mentally, and the SEC superiority was proven once again. In reality, it was just Michigan’s seventh loss all-time against current SEC teams, compared to 20 wins and one tie. Alabama fans act as if Alabama has always been superior to Michigan, but it was just six years ago that the script would have been reversed as Michigan went 11-2 and ‘Bama just 6-7.

DeAndrew White scores on Courtney Avery, a few plays after Countess was lost for the season (photo by LM Otero, AP)

But we’re talking about this year. A year in which Michigan is still rebuilding from the disaster that was the Rich Rod era. A year in which Alabama will likely win a second straight national championship, and third in four years. Entering Saturday’s game, we all underestimated the significance of losing three defensive linemen, both in performance and leadership. We all underestimated Nick Saban’s ability to turn an extra 20 recruits over a five year period into a reloading machine. We should have seen this coming. It’s not 2006 anymore.

I’ve seen many a comment since Saturday night from Michigan fans calling for Denard Robinson to switch to receiver once and for all. These are likely the same fans who tout his Heisman candidacy after each big game, and this Jekyll and Hyde mentality needs to stop. This team would not have won on Saturday with Chad Henne or John Navarre or Jim Harbaugh under center. Whether we like it or not, Denard is the quarterback this season, and provides the best chance to win. Come February 2013 we can start discussing who Michigan’s quarterback should be.

The biggest problem on Saturday night was not who the starting quarterback was; it was how he was used. Denard has never been, nor ever will be a pocket quarterback, and yet that’s how he was used from the start. It’s easy to look back and critique the game plan when all is said and done, but that recipe is doomed to burn the biscuits every time against a defense like Alabama’s.

Obviously, Michigan wanted to win the game, but in the grand scheme of the season, beating Alabama was not high priority. Beating Purdue, and Illinois, and Michigan State, and Nebraska, and Minnesota, and Northwestern, and Iowa, and Ohio State are. Winning the Big Ten is. Whether we, as fans, like it or not, maybe the game plan was as it was to keep Denard healthy for the rest of the season. The coaches will never admit as much, but could you blame them if it was? You can call that a loser’s mentality, but Michigan would not have won with Denard running 15-20 times either. So why doom the season for one game?

A game plan that involves rushing Vincent Smith into the 'Bama defensive line 13 times is doomed to fail (photo by Ronald Martinez, Getty Images)

While Denard stayed relatively healthy, except for making a tackle following an interception and contorting his body trying to reach a first down, the injury bug still struck the Wolverines in a bad way. Sophomore cornerback Blake Countess was lost for the year on Michigan’s first punt of the game. Left tackle Taylor Lewan injured his right leg and his status is unknown, though he reportedly told the coaches he could go back in. Tight end Brandon Moore also left the game with an injury.

Coutness’ loss was felt immediately, as Alabama quarterback A.J. McCarron went after his replacement, Courtney Avery. His loss will be a big one the rest of the season, turning a position of strength into a position of uncertainty. Lewan’s loss was also felt immediately, as on the very next play, Alabama’s D.J. Pettway ran right by Michael Schoefield, who had shifted over to left tackle, and sacked Denard – the Tide’s only sack of the night. If he’s out for an extended period of time, Michigan’s strong line will be greatly reduced.

We saw the makings of what could become a great receiver in Devin Gardner. He started slow, failing to pull in a couple of grabs and running imprecise routes, but it was against a great secondary. He did make his first touchdown grab, and the more time he plays, the better he’ll get.

We also saw a glimpse of what should be a really good kickoff returnman in freshman Dennis Norfleet. He’s an instant upgrade from last season and should help with field position.

This week, Michigan will get back Fitzgerald Toussaint who was suspended for the opener following a DUI. His return will immediately shore up the running game for the rest of the season, although had he been on the field on Saturday, the outcome would not have changed. Alabama is just that good.

All we really found out is that Alabama was far superior and that Michigan still isn’t where it needs to be to compete with the nation’s best. End of story. Eleven regular season games remain and Michigan gets a pair of should-win games against Air Force and UMass to get everything sorted out before facing a Notre Dame team that looked strong on Saturday morning. We’re still in store for a great season, and while the excitement is tempered by Saturday’s performance, it shouldn’t have been a surprise.

None of the Big Ten looked great this weekend, save Ohio State and maybe Nebraska. Michigan State struggled against a greatly reduced Boise State. Penn State lost to Ohio. Northwestern, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, Purdue, Illinois, and Indiana all struggled to wins over inferior teams. Michigan gained a great learning experience from Saturday, and that should not be overlooked. The team we see the rest of the season will hardly resemble the one that took it on the chin Saturday night. Let’s forget about Alabama and set our sights on winning the Big Ten.

Despite forcing Alabama into a three-and-out on its first series and looking like they could be formidable opponent, the Michigan defense was completely overmatched the rest of the night. They did record two sacks (and Will Campbell was looking quite nimble on his) but they were dominated up front by the best offensive line in the country.

Alabama's defense gave Michigan no room to run. This was a familiar sight (photo by Leon Halip, Getty Images)

After the three-and-out to start the game, Alabama proceded to score on its next three drives, all in a span of about five minutes. The Tide dominated the line play and created gaping holes for its backs to run through as Alabama ran the ball to the tune of 232 yards, including an astounding 111 yards from true freshman T.J.Yeldon on only 11 carries.

The passing game, however, left much to be desired for the Tide. A.J. McCarron finished a pedestrian 11-for-21 for 199 yards. But when throwing out of play-action, he was 6-for-9 for 123 yards with both of his touchdowns; a 2-yard pass to tight end Michael Williams to start the scoring and then a 51-yard pass on which Courtney Avery slipped and fell during a double move from DeAndrew White.

Denard Robinson injured his throwing arm making a tackle after throwing a pick in the first quarter but recovered as the game went along and looked to be fine. The same can not be said for cornerback Blake Countess, who left the game with an apparent knee injury after a special teams tackle. It appeared as though the trainers were giving him the ACL test on the sidelines and his status going forward has yet to be announced.

Denard threw another interception in the second quarter which went for six and Alabama was up 31-0 before Michigan found the endzone on a Denard 6-yard run towards the end of the first half. The run was preceded by a beautiful 71-yard pass to Jeremy Gallon, but it was one of the few bright spots of the day.

Denard and the offense looked completely out of sync; though his passes in the early going did have good velocity, he overthrew his receivers on several occasions. Devin Gardner got the starting nod at receiver and was targeted several times but didn’t make the most of it until late in the third quarter when he caught a 44-yard touchdown pass from Denard after the Tide defender fell down.

Neither team was any good on third down. Michigan went 3-for-11 while Alabama only managed 3-for-10, but the Tide had 20 first downs to Michigan’s 11. The passing yards were almost equal but most of Michigan’s yards came on two big plays, the 71-yarder to Gallon and the 44-yard touchdown pass to Gardner.

Bama's running backs ran through arm tackles all night (photo by Ronald Martinez, Getty Images)

Alabama is an elite program and while incredibly disappointing, Michigan should not hang their heads after this loss. This is a program that could conceivably win its third national title in four years, and not many teams, if any this season, will hang with Nick Saban and the Crimson Tide.

According to ESPN, the Tide are now 40-0 since the start of the 2008 season when they run for at least 150 yards. Alabama’s running backs were only hit in the backfield on four of their 38 runs, and on 13 runs, they were not hit until at least five yards past the line of scrimmage. That’s not a recipe for success for any defense.

Perhaps Hokeamaniac put it best last night on his Facebook page, saying, “Alabama was the superior team and outplayed the Michigan Wolverines from open to close. The physical mismatch was glaring. The Wolverine offense was incapable of doing anything and the play execution of the maize and blue was, pathetic at best.”

It’s not that they were not prepared; it’s just that Alabama was physically (and perhaps schematically as well) superior. Michigan looked like a JV team against professional athletes, showing that while they may be on the right track to regain national prominence they are still years away. Alabama is what happens when you have elite athletes playing in the same system under an elite coach. This is what Michigan is striving for and we must be patient while Brady Hoke builds this program back to elite status.

In the grand scheme of the season this does not hurt Michigan’s main goal, though the press will inevitably call this a confidence shaking loss and will posit that the Wolverines may not recover in time. Michigan’s goal is to win the Big Ten Championship and this game does not affect their pursuit of that goal. While there were some big mistakes made, like Denard’s pass directly to CJ Mosley which led to the pick-six, the outcome of the game was not because of poor execution. Michigan was simply overmatched. Luckily for them, they won’t face another team with the type of talent and size that Alabama possesses and should be just fine the rest of the year.

We will have more reaction to the game in the next couple of days as well as a first look at the Air Force Falcons.

Years after he finished his coaching career, legendary Ohio State head coach Woody Hayes was asked which of his teams he thought was his best. He quickly replied his 1969 team that went unbeaten except for a 24-12 loss to Michigan. He then paused, looked into the crowd and said, “Damn you, Bo, you’ll never win a bigger game.”

The man he looked at and referred to was Bo Schembechler, his former protégé and the man who upset his greatest team. It was Bo’s first year at Michigan, hired to replace a floundering Bump Elliott whose team had lost to Ohio State 50-14 the previous year.

Ohio State entered the matchup riding a 22-game winning streak and the defending national champions. They were thought to be unbeatable. Many considered them one of the greatest teams ever. Michigan was a measly 7-2 entering the contest and was given no shot. OSU was a 17-point favorite, but on that day, an inspired and disciplined Michigan team not only came to play, but sent the Buckeyes home with a 12-point loss.

Tomorrow when Michigan steps on the field against Alabama, the expectations from everyone outside Ann Arbor will be very similar. The national perception of Michigan is that it overachieved last year and is in store for a slight decline this season and doesn’t stand a chance this Saturday because of a tougher schedule and the loss of three starting defensive linemen, despite having a senior third-year starting quarterback, an experienced offensive line, and a proven running back. All the while, the perception of Alabama is that the defending national champs are serious contenders to repeat and will dominate Michigan on Saturday with a powerful offensive line, a returning game managing quarterback and….enough replacements to make Keanu Reeves jealous.

While both of those perceptions have some truth to them, I think they’re not as drastic as we’re being led to believe. But does Michigan have any chance at winning? Let’s examine how the two teams match up.

When Michigan has the ball

Roy Roundtree and the rest of the receiving corps will need a big game against Alabama's young secondary

Everybody assumes this year’s Alabama defense will be just as good as last year’s despite replacing seven starters. There’s no question that last year’s defense was as dominant as it gets in college football and this year’s certainly has enough talent to make a name for itself. But Michigan is in the best possible position it could be entering this matchup: opening the season. The new Tide defenders haven’t had a chance to shake off the rust and get acclimated to their starting spots. But Michigan brings a third-year starting quarterback and an experienced offensive line to the table along with two proven receivers and an unknown x-factor in Devin Gardner.

Look for offensive coordinator Al Borges to spread it out early on and utilize a short passing game and a lot of misdirection to test ‘Bama’s new outside linebackers. The middle of the defensive line will be the Tide’s strength, so Michigan will need to open it up to keep Kirby Smart from stacking the box. I fully expect a more confident and precise Denard Robinson, enough to keep the defense honest with his arm.

Don’t get me wrong – I’m not saying it’s going to be a cakewalk by any means – but Michigan will move the ball better than most expect.

When Alabama has the ball

Quinton Washington will have to be stout in the middle to stop the run (photo by John T. Grellick, Detroit News)

As I mentioned in yesterday’s Friend vs Foe, the strength of the Alabama offense is it’s line. Center Barrett Jones is the best lineman in college football and right tackle D.J. Fluker isn’t far behind. Four of the starters have a combined 95 career starts and the fifth is former five-star Cyrus Kouandjio. Unfortunately, Michigan’s defensive line is where the most turnover occurred this offseason.

When the two-deep was released earlier in the week, most were surprised to see Quinton Washington listed as the starter at nose tackle with Will Campbell at defensive tackle and Jibreel Black starting at weak-side end instead of Brennen Beyer. But what it does is beef up the line and that’s exactly what Michigan’s defense needs if it wants any shot at stopping the ‘Bama run.

Running back Eddie Lacy is a first-year starter, but he has enough experience to be a proven back. Last season, he rushed for 674 yards, averaging 7.1 yards per carry in a backup role to Trent Richardson. If there’s a weakness on the Alabama offense it’s receiver, which returns just 36 percent of its production. The leading returning receiver, Kenny Bell, was the team’s fifth-leading receiver last year with just 17 receptions for 255 yards and two touchdowns.

Quarterback A.J. McCarron has Alabama fans thinking he’s the second coming becuase of his BCS National Championship game performance, but he’s little more than a game manager. With a host of unproven receivers, he’ll have to hope they step up or rely on the run game. That’s where the big defensive line comes in. Greg Mattison will aim to stop the run and force McCarron to get every ounce of production possible out of his wideouts. And I like Michigan’s odds in that case. The back seven are the strength of the team and can handle a group of inexperienced pass catchers. But that’s all reliant on the line stopping the run, which is a very tall task.

Prediction:

In the grand scheme of things, this game means virtually nothing to Michigan’s season. Of course they’ll do everything they can to win, but Brady Hoke has said since the day he was hired that the goal is to win the Big Ten championship each year and that can still be attained regardless of what happens tomorrow. But it’s an important game for Michigan as far as national prestige and conference bragging rights go. The Big Ten hasn’t done itself any favors as of late and the fact that the SEC has won the last six national titles has the south on top of the college football world. Michigan has been the only Big Ten team that has had the upper hand against SEC foes, but is still getting no respect in this one. And that’s just fine with Hoke. He’ll have the team ready to play and they’ll put up an effort worthy of respect, showing the rest of the teams on the schedule that Michigan is for real.

Regardless of who gets the ball first, I think it’s imperative that Michigan not only score first, but punch in a touchdown first to set the tone of the game. Alabama doesn’t think Michigan can score on its vaunted defense and thinks it can slow down Denard, so an early touchdown would do wonders for the confidence of Michigan and let doubt start to creep in for Alabama. But when it comes down to it, I just don’t see Michigan being able to stop the Alabama run efficiently enough to win the game. It will be closer than most people think and Michigan will score enough to make it a ballgame, but Alabama’s line will outlast Michigan in the end.

Alabama 27 – Michigan 23

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Check back this afternoon for our full staff previews and don’t forget to register for this week’s 5-Spot Challenge for a chance to win a $20 M Den gift card.

Welcome to the first installment of our new weekly series that will run throughout the season, Friend vs. Foe. In this feature, we will go head to head with a writer from a blog of that week’s opponent. The point isn’t to make a score prediction of the game, but rather for each of us to explain how or why our respective team will win.

For this week’s edition, we are privileged to have Todd from Roll Bama Roll. You might recognize RBR from the “Michigan Hate Week” post earlier in the week. However, that was just a fan post, not by the actual guys that run RBR. Todd is a good guy and they produce some great Alabama content. But head over to that thread for a good pregame laugh. I haven’t met enough Alabama fans yet to tell whether they all subscribe to that line of thinking, but I will say that that poster didn’t do his brethren many favors when it comes to fanbase perception. But I digress. Let’s get on with it.

The case for Alabama
by Todd

In football, most students of the game will tell you everything starts up front. The team that can control the line of scrimmage and impose its will on the opponent is usually the team that will come out on top. Nick Saban has built his success at Alabama on that principle, using big and surprisingly athletic linemen on both sides of the ball to establish the Tide’s dominance in games early and often. The same will hold true this year.

Four starters return on the offensive line, with consensus All-American Barrett Jones at center, and two ESPN preseason All-Americans in Chance Warmack and D.J. Fluker at left guard and right tackle. While all the chatter from spring and fall is that Alabama is looking to ride the strength of returning QB AJ McCarron’s arm and a host of speedy young receivers, with this line and a stable of running backs that have two former five star recruits as backups there’s no reason to believe the Tide can’t be just as brutally efficient on the ground as it has the past few years and control the game with the same frustrating mix of power runs and play action that has worked so well. Given that Michigan’s defensive line lost three of four starters from last season and are facing the possibility of losing even more depth with Frank Clark suspended, the advantage is in Alabama’s favor.

On defense, the Tide loses starting NT Josh Chapman, but returns three players with starting experience and most of the backups that played significant snaps, while the linebackers return three key contributors in the middle. Trying to run between the tackles against that front won’t be easy, and if Fitz Toussaint is really sitting out the Wolverines will almost have to run wide. This could actually work to Michigan’s advantage. Alabama loses both starting outside linebackers from last season and is replacing them with a pair of untested underclassmen in Xzavier Dickson and Adrian Hubbard.

The early returns on their performances through spring and fall are promising, but Alabama lost a lot of experience at both outside spots and it does give Michigan an advantage should they want to utilize Denard Robinson’s speed and the “deuce” package to run wide against Alabama’s defense and put the pressure on the outside linebackers and secondary to keep contain. Staying disciplined and not allowing Robinson to create with his feet will be the first goal of the Alabama defense, and after having faced offenses like Florida, Auburn, and LSU’s over the last few years there’s plenty of experience against teams with mobile QBs.

Unless Robinson has the game of his life and Alabama is forced into a shoot out Alabama is still the better team. Questions about Robinson’s passing efficiency and the underwhelming production of his receivers coupled with inexperience and lack of depth make Michigan merely a good team with a lot of questions to answer. I expect this to be a fairly back and forth affair for the first half, but Saban and his staff have shown time and again that they are masters at in game adjustments, so look for the Tide to pull away late.

The case for Michigan
by Justin

Alabama’s biggest advantage coming into the game is its All-Everything offensive line against Michigan’s unproven defensive line. The depth chart that Michigan released earlier in the week included a surprise starter on the line: the presence of Quinton Washington at nose tackle and Jibreel Black starting at weak-side end. If that depth chart holds true on Saturday, Hoke and defensive coordinator Greg Mattison will be choosing size over speed, and I think that’s the right call. Remember, Mattison is one of the best D-coordinators in the game and Hoke’s specialty is the D-line, so this won’t be as big of a mismatch as people think.

Alabama returns just 36 percent of its receiving from a year ago. The top three receivers, including tight end Brad Smelley, are gone from a passing offense that ranked 69th nationally last season. ‘Bama fans are high on quarterback A.J. McCarron because of his performance in the BCS National Championship game, but it was also his second attempt at LSU in less than two months. His first was far less impressive. Michigan’s back seven is its strength with a pair of proven corners and safeties as well as smart and experienced linebackers. I’m confident that they can handle Alabama’s passing game. The key will be to stop the running game.

This is where the big defensive line comes in. I would submit that getting a ton of pressure on McCarron is less important than clogging the running lanes for Eddie Lacey, Jalston Fowler, T.J. Yeldon, and Dee Hart. If the Tide are able to completely control the line of scrimmage and run at will, they’ll put up points and win the game. If Michigan can neutralize the run game and force McCarron and his host of inexperienced receivers to make plays, then we’ll have a ballgame.

Michigan will score some points – I think somewhere in the range of 20 – so it’s up to the defense to force the Tide to kick field goals rather than punch it into the end zone. Jeremy Schelley attempted 27 last year (making 21) and Nick Saban leans towards the conservative side when it comes to scoring points. So stop the run and be stout in the red zone (which Michigan excelled at last year), and we could see a shocker on Saturday night.

When Michigan opens its season against Alabama on Saturday, it will go up against the defending national champions. That’s no surprise. We all watched the Crimson Tide sneak into the title game and then demolish LSU this past January. We’ve been talking about the impending matchup all offseason and the stakes were heightened when the preseason polls put both teams in the Top 10.

But with so many starters lost to either graduation or to the NFL Draft (mostly the latter), just how good will Alabama be? We’ve been hearing all about Nick Saban’s ability to just plug in replacements, but what does that mean? Does Michigan even stand a chance? Let’s take a look at all of that, starting with Alabama’s stats from last season as they compare to Michigan’s. Since it’s the first game of the season, last year is all we have to compare, but for future opponents we’ll dig deeper into the current season’s stats.

Obviously, the Crimson Tide defense was dominant last season, even being considered as one of the best defenses ever. What really stands out to me from their 2011 stats is that they only allowed 12 touchdowns all season. Interestingly enough, Georgia Southern scored a fourth of those. LSU was held without a touchdown in two meetings. Arkansas’ high-powered offense managed two, scoring more than three touchdowns less than its season average.

Another interesting note is that Michigan had two individual players who each rushed for more yards than Alabama’s defense allowed all season. Denard Robinson (1,349) and Fitz Toussaint (1,071) each had more than the 938 allowed by the ‘Bama defense. Boy would it be nice to have Toussaint on Saturday.

The two teams were pretty much equal in red zone offense. They were in the red zone exactly 58 times and Alabama scored twice more, but Michigan was more efficient with putting the ball in the end zone five more times than the Tide. On the defensive side, however, Alabama only allowed its opponents inside the 20-yard line 17 times all season.

So now the question begs: how much of that production is returning? Let’s take a look.

As you can see, Alabama returns starting quarterback A.J. McCarron, but returns just 41 percent of its rushing, 36.7 percent of its receiving, and 53.6 percent of its scoring. The majority of its returning scoring is kicker Jeremy Shelley who hit 21 field goals and 52 extra points last season. Take him out of the equation, and just 38 percent of the offensive scoring returns.

As for defense (not represented in the charts above), the Tide returns 46.6 percent of its tackling, although the top three (Dont’a Hightower, Mark Barron, and Courtney Upshaw) are all gone. Alabama also returns just 23 percent of its sacks (seven of 30). Only one returning player, linebacker C.J. Mosley, recorded more than one sack last season. The seven new defensive starters will have their hands full.

There are a lot of holes to fill on both sides of the ball, but in the last five recruiting classes (the players that will fill out this year’s team), ‘Bama has finished first, first, fifth, first, first in Rivals’ recruiting rankings. Compare that to Michigan’s last five years of finishing 10th, eighth, 20th, 21st, and seventh and you see the talent discrepancy. Alabama’s average star rating has been 3.8 while Michigan’s was 3.51, and while that doesn’t seem like a big difference, consider that the Tide has secured 14 five-stars to Michigan’s three, and 76 four-stars to Michigan’s 52.

What does that mean? While Alabama has a lot of holes to fill, it has a more talented pool of players to step in. Obviously, star rankings don’t always tell the whole story (for example, Will Campbell was one of Michigan’s three five-star commits in the last five years, and is just now working his way into the starting lineup as a senior), but we’re not talking about a one or two player difference here. The Tide has signed 17 more players overall in the last five classes than Michigan has and 11 more blue-chippers.

So does that mean Alabama has it in the bag? As Lee Corso likes to say, not so fast my friend. Let’s not forget that after winning the 2009 national championship, Alabama went just 10-3 in 2010. That team returned a senior quarterback in Greg McElroy and Heisman Trophy winning running back Mark Ingram. The defense was still pretty dominant, finishing in the top 10 nationally in most categories, but the losses to South Carolina, LSU, and Auburn were three more than the previous season. Nick Saban is hell-bent on not allowing a repeat of that season this year, but if there ever was a time to beat the Tide, opening day is as good as any.

[Ed.: Sorry for missing the record watch story yesterday. I'm in Los Angeles for business this week and had the opportunity to drive down to San Diego and play Torrey Pines. Awesome course. And I shot a 77 from the blue tees so I'm pretty happy about that. I'll post the record watch story next week].

With one of the nation’s toughest schedules, Michigan faces a tall task in order to match last season’s 11-2 record. To many, winning fewer than 11 games will be considered a disappointment. To Brady Hoke, anything less than a Big Ten title will be considered a failure. With 14 returning starters, can we expect another double-digit win season? Let’s take a look at each game on the schedule.

September 1 – Alabama

Eddie Lacy will be one of the best backs Michigan faces all season

The last time Michigan opened the season against a top-10 team the Wolverines steamrolled Colorado 27-3 en route to winning the national championship. Unfortunately, this time Michigan faces off with the defending national champions and it’s not a home game. Yes, Alabama lost a lot on defense, but the Crimson Tide typically rotate in a lot of players, so those replacing the departed already have experience. And they’re not scrubs either. Offensively, the Tide will be solid with an upperclassman quarterback in A.J. McCarron and another stud running waiting to shine in Eddie Lacy. If Michigan is without Fitzgerald Toussaint, it will be a long shot for the maize and blue to get out of Dallas with a win.

Alabama 31 – Michigan 20

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September 8 – Air Force

Following what will likely be a loss to open the season, Michigan returns home to face a wacky offense it won’t see again. Even though Air Force is replacing 15 starters, the Falcons are a well-oiled machine for just plugging in replacements and chugging along. The trouble is Michigan has to prepare for a triple-option offense it won’t see again all season. So how much time do you devote to practicing for it? Obviously, the week of the game you do, but with Alabama leading things off, it’s hard to imagine Hoke and Greg Mattison are putting much emphasis in fall practice on defending the triple-option. That’s why Air Force will give Michigan a game – at least for a couple of quarters. Michigan will win this one, but it will be close for a while.

Michigan 42 – Air Force 21

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September 15 – UMass

The nightmare scenario is UMass pulls off a Toledo-like performance and shocks Michigan with former Michigan running back Michael Cox running all over the place. But that’s not going to happen. UMass just doesn’t have the horses to keep up with Michigan. Quarterback Kellen Pagel threw for just 1,725 yards last season with nine touchdowns and nine interceptions. Mattison will harass Pagel all day and Michigan will get the win.

Michigan 45 – UMass 17

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September 22 – Notre Dame

Everett Golson won the QB derby for Notre Dame

Last season, Notre Dame nearly spoiled Michigan’s Under the Lights game. The Irish dominated for three quarters before Michigan took over in the fourth and pulled off the win with two seconds left. This year, ND is hosting the game under the lights, a scenario in which the Irish are 3-0 all-time against Michigan. The biggest question of all is who will be the quarterback? Yesterday, ND head coach Brian Kelly announced that Everett Golson will start the season opener in Dublin, Ireland. Last year’s starter, Tommy Rees, is suspended for the game. Whether or not he regains his spot will largely depend on Golson’s performance in the Emerald Isle. Notre Dame will have a decent offense, but its defense has been ravaged by injuries, most notably in the secondary. It will go down to the wire, but Michigan is the most experienced team and will pull it out.

Michigan 35 – Notre Dame 31

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October 6 – Purdue

Last season, Purdue finished on a high note for the first time in years, winning the Little Caesars Pizza Bowl. Can the Boilermakers carry it over into 2012? Danny Hope has perhaps the most experience returning at the quarterback position in the Big Ten. Three quarterbacks who have started games are back. Three of four receivers return as do the top three rushers. The offense will be a good one. Defensively, Purdue brings back perhaps the Big Ten’s best tackle in Kawaan Short and an All-Big Ten cornerback in Ricardo Allen. Purdue has a chance to make some noise in the Leaders division with Ohio State and Penn State ineligible for post season, but Michigan should win this one.

Michigan 33 – Purdue 17

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October 13 – Illinois

Illinois has a chance to be a trap game for Michigan. Yes, it’s homecoming, but it looms the week before the big battle with Michigan State. Hoke does a good job of keeping the team from looking ahead and Illinois is facing a rebuilding year with a new head coach. Quarterback Nathan Scheelhaase can always be dangerous, but Michigan bottled him up pretty well last season and he lost his top receiver, A.J. Jenkins, to the NFL. The top defender, Whitney Mercilus, is also gone.

Michigan 41 – Illinois 14

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October 20 – Michigan State

This could be the biggest game of the year for Michigan. Alabama is big, but it won’t do anything for Michigan’s Big Ten title hopes. Ohio State will be big, but Michigan got that monkey off its back last season. MSU has won four straight and claims its not much of a rivalry anymore. It’s now up to Michigan to prove it still has the upper hand. State loses quarterback Kirk Cousins (finally) and receivers B.J. Cunningham and Keyshawn Martin but does have a good running back in LeVeon Bell. The defense should be one of the Big Ten’s best and will look to give Denard Robinson fits once again. It will be a low scoring, hard-fought battle, but Michigan pulls it out.

Michigan 24 – Michigan State 20

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October 27 – Nebraska

Memorial Stadium will be a tough place to win

A week after the bloodbath with Michigan State, Michigan has to travel to Nebraska for the first time in over a century. It’s a nigh game in a stadium the Cornhuskers are traditionally tough. Michigan will either be coming down from the high of ending its losing streak to Michigan State or down after its fifth-straight loss to the Spartans. Nebraska will be better than last season and will be tough to beat on the road.

Nebraska 37 – Michigan 31

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November 3 Minnesota

Minnesota has an athletic quarterback in MarQueis Gray who is basically a poor man’s Denard Robinson. Unfortunately, he has no one to throw to this season. His leading returning receiver caught just 15 passes for 190 yards last season. Michigan may be a little beat up after a tough stretch against Michigan State and at Nebraska, but the Wolverines shouldn’t have much problem picking up their first win in TCF Bank Stadium.

Michigan 42 – Minnesota 17

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November 10 – Northwestern

Like Minnesota, Northwestern has a talented and athletic quarterback. Dan Persa is gone, but Kain Colter takes the reigns. He led the Wildcats in rushing last season, caught 43 passes for 466 yards and played extended minutes in three games at quarterback, completing 67 percent of his passes for six touchdowns and just one interception. Thankfully for Colter, USC transfer Kyle Prater was granted permission from the NCAA to play this season, so the pair could be one of the best QB-WR duos in the conference. Three starters are gone from the Wildcat secondary which was torched by Michigan last year. Expect this game to follow a similar mold as last season’s matchup: close in the first half and Michigan pulls away in the second.

Michigan 40 – Northwestern 23

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October 17 – Iowa

Like Michigan State, Iowa has been a bit of a bugaboo for Michigan as of late. The Hawkeyes have beaten Michigan three straight times. This game falls a week before Michigan travels to Ohio State, so there’s always the possibility of overlooking Iowa, but as mentioned above, Hoke won’t allow that. Iowa has one of the conference’s best quarterbacks in James Vandenberg. He’ll need some skills position players to step up, however, with the departure of Marvin McNutt and a depleted running back corps due to injuries, suspensions, and transfers. The defensive line is young, but this late in the season that shouldn’t matter. The back seven will be strong. Iowa needs its defense to be dominant this season, at least until some offensive playmakers emerge. Michigan will be deep in the race for the Big Ten Legends division title, so don’t expect a letdown here.

Michigan 35 – Iowa 17

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Urban Meyer will look to get off to a good start in the rivarly

November 27 – Ohio State

Urban Meyer has been getting the headlines and media coverage all off season and he hasn’t even coached a game in Columbus yet. Despite being ineligible for the postseason, the Buckeyes’ schedule is favorable enough to yield a very good season. Quarterback Braxton Miller has a ton of potential if – similar to Denard Robinson – he can refine his passing game. The Buckeye defense will be strong as usual led by defensive end John Simon. With no postseason, this is Ohio State’s bowl game. It’s in the Horseshoe where Michigan hasn’t won since 2000. Unfortunately, it’s hard to see Michigan winning this one. Let’s home I’m wrong.

Ohio State 31 – Michigan 27

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That adds up to a 9-3 record, the same as I predicted last season. I think it’s asking too much to expect 10 wins and it’s entirely possible to finish 8-4 or even 7-5 with a few bad breaks. A senior Denard Robinson should negate those bad breaks and Michigan’s defense will be better than most experts think, so 9-3 looks like a realistic expectation. Obviously, a Big Ten title game and a bowl game would allow Michigan to reach 10 or 11 wins, so that would make for a successful season and set up big expectations for 2013.