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Posts Tagged ‘Baylor’

Michigan’s College Football Playoff rooting guide: Nov. 28

Saturday, November 28th, 2015


Cardinals Stadium

Michigan’s College Football Playoff dreams took an enormous hit Saturday night when Michael Geiger’s 41-yard field goal split the uprights and cracked the Buckeyes in Columbus. The Wolverines not only lost a chance to control their own destiny in the Big Ten race, they also missed out on perhaps two opportunities to play against undefeated, top-five opponents.

Now everything falls into the hands of a Penn State that doesn’t look capable of keeping its star quarterback upright, let alone pulling off a monumental upset. Barring something insane, Michigan will have to settle for a nine or 10-win season, which is pretty incredible, considering the direction the program was trending the last seven years.

But until the final game clock hits zero, we’ll keep pursuing those slim championship hopes.

“I really, really need you”

In honor of Sanka Coffie from Cool Runnings, these teams completely hold Michigan’s fate in their hands. These are the teams that Michigan absolutely needs victories from on Saturday in order to keep the Wolverines’ CFP hopes alive. If even one of these teams falls, Michigan’s CFP dreams die.

No. 10 Michigan (home) over No. 8 Ohio State (12pm, ABC): As always, Michigan has to take care of its own business for any of this to even matter. Jim Harbaugh’s team has done nothing but improve all season and looks like it can compete with almost any team in the country. A win over Ohio State would make the 3:30 kick in East Lansing worth a glance.

Result: Ohio State 42 – Michigan 13

Penn State (away) over No. 5 Michigan State (3:30pm, ABC): This one probably isn’t happening. Michigan State looks to have really hit its stride heading into the final weeks of the season, and Penn State is just limping toward the finish line. If the Spartans win, it’ll be a Big Ten East title for Mark Dantonio.

Result: Michigan State 55 – Penn State 16

“It could happen!”

In honor of JP from Angels in the Outfield, this is the “It could happen” group. These are the teams Michigan is rooting for that have a legitimate chance to win on Saturday. Wins by these teams either help the Wolverines move up in the rankings or improve their resume (in order of kickoff time).

No. 4 Iowa (away) over Nebraska (3:30pm, ABC, Friday): On the off chance that Michigan does get into the Big Ten Championship game next week, it needs an undefeated Iowa, ranked in the top four, to boost its resume. A title game of that magnitude would really propel Michigan into the conversation during the final rankings.

Result: Iowa 28 – Nebraska 20

No. 19 TCU (home) over No. 7 Baylor (8pm, ESPN, Friday): This might be Michigan’s last chance to jump Baylor, as the Bears have only a home date with an awful Texas team remaining. A loss to TCU would put three of the four Big 12 contenders behind Michigan.

Result: TCU 28 – Baylor 21 (2OT)

No. 23 Utah (home) over Colorado (2:30pm, Pac12): Utah has been killing Michigan the last two weeks. Back-to-back losses to Arizona and UCLA has the Utes clinging to the edge of the top 25 and threatening to turn Michigan’s opening loss into a weak one. They cannot afford a loss to Colorado.

Result: Utah 20 – Colorado 14

No. 16 Northwestern (away) over Illinois (3:30pm, ESPNU): The Wildcats have done nothing but help Michigan since being blown out in back-to-back games to the Wolverines and Hawkeyes. Northwestern needs only a win over Illinois to cap off a 10-win regular season and give Michigan one of the best wins (considering the 38-0 score) of the entire football season.

Result: Northwestern 24 – Illinois 14

No. 13 Florida State (away) over No. 12 Florida (7:30pm, ESPN): Since Florida State’s resume pales in comparison to Michigan’s I don’t think a win over Florida would propel the Seminoles into the top 10. Florida, on the other hand, still has the slim chance to jump Michigan if it somehow knocks off Alabama in the SEC title game. A loss to FSU would take care of that worry.

Result: Florida State 27 – Florida 2

No. 9 Stanford (home) over No. 6 Notre Dame (7:30pm, FOX): This is a tough one, because Michigan should pass the loser no matter what if the Wolverines knock off Ohio State. But if Stanford beats Notre Dame, there’s still a chance the Cardinal might lose to UCLA or USC in the Pac-12 title game. That would lift Michigan over both teams if it wins out. Also, Stanford has no business being ranked above Michigan in the first place.

Result: Stanford 38 – Notre Dame 36

No. 11 Oklahoma State (home) over No. 3 Oklahoma (8pm, ABC): There’s definitely a chance Oklahoma State would jump Michigan with a win over vastly over-ranked Oklahoma, but there’s also a chance the Wolverines would hold serve with a win over Ohio State. This is the only scenario that gives Michigan a legitimate shot to shoot above all four Big 12 contenders.

Result: Oklahoma 58 – Oklahoma State 23

“It’s just not believable, Cotton”

In honor of Pepper Brooks, from Dodgeball, these are the true underdog stories. These teams have almost no chance to win, but if they do, it would really help Michigan.

South Carolina (home) over No. 1 Clemson (12pm, ESPN): Hey, it’s the last week of the regular season, why not root for some chaos? It’s not likely that Clemson can do anything to fall below Michigan at this point, but in a rivalry game, on the road, to a team coming off a loss to The Citadel, anything can happen.

Result: Clemson 37 – South Carolina 32

Auburn (home) over No. 2 Alabama (3:30pm, CBS): The Iron Bowl is one of the biggest crapshoots in college football, and a loss to a bad Auburn team would really put pressure on the committee to (finally) punish Alabama. Would the Crimson Tide fall below Michigan? It would certainly have to be under consideration if Michigan beat Ohio State.

Result: Alabama 29 – Auburn 13

North Carolina State (home) over No. 14 North Carolina (3:30pm, ABC/ESPN2): Despite two FCS games and a laughable loss to South Carolina in the nonconference season, North Carolina has ridden a 10-game winning streak over unranked opponents right into the top 15. If the Tarheels did the unthinkable and won the ACC, they might vault Michigan in the rankings. A loss to rival N.C. State would erase any chance of that happening.

Result: North Carolina 45 – N.C. State 34

CFP Rankings: What they missed – Nov. 24, 2015

Friday, November 27th, 2015


CFP banner

The College Football Playoff selection committee cleaned up some of its own mess this week when it released the third-to-last top 25 of the season.

Ohio State and Memphis were both embarrassed on Saturday, forcing the committee to drop both schools from pedestals they didn’t deserve. Even Florida, which hasn’t looked like a top 50 team for weeks, finally paid the price after a slim overtime victory over Florida Atlantic University.

But there are still a rash of alarming mistakes, highlighted by a few I pointed out last week. Stanford is still ranked above Michigan, despite the clear Wolverine edge in both quality wins and outcomes against common opponents. North Carolina is also ranked ahead of a few teams with much better resumes and far fewer cupcake wins over FCS opponents.

For now, let’s dive into some of the new mistakes that emerged from Tuesday’s rankings.

(3) Oklahoma…anywhere near the top 3

While the rest of the country jumps aboard the Sooner bandwagon, I’ve been left wondering what it is about their resume I’m not seeing.

Oklahoma has only played two respectable opponents this season – Baylor and TCU – and neither team had its starting quarterback against the Sooners. Committee chairman Jeff Long touted Oklahoma for dominating Saturday’s contest while its starting quarterback was in the game. But did he realize TCU played with a backup for 60 minutes? The Horned Frogs were also without their top playmaking receiver in the contest.

But a win over a two-loss TCU team playing without its two best players was enough to vault Oklahoma to number three?

Maybe the committee is forgetting Oct. 10, when the Sooners were thoroughly dominated by a terrible 4-7 Texas team that has since lost to the likes of West Virginia and Iowa State? Texas outgained Oklahoma by 90 yards and never trailed in the contest.
How in the world can this happen?

Who should be above Oklahoma? Let’s start with Iowa, a team that, in case you haven’t noticed, is undefeated. The Hawkeyes have two wins – Wisconsin and Northwestern – that are just as impressive as beating Baylor and TCU with backup quarterbacks. And Iowa hasn’t lost to anybody, let alone a 4-7 train wreck like Texas.

Michigan State should also be ahead of Oklahoma. The Spartans have wins over Oregon and Michigan and Ohio State on the road. They went into Columbus and bullied the Buckeyes with two backup quarterbacks. Oklahoma jumping two Big Ten teams with such obviously stronger resumes makes me worry about the integrity of the sport.

If Oklahoma wins out and stays above an undefeated Iowa or one-loss MSU, it’ll be obvious the committee is trying to make up for snubbing the Big 12 last season.

(13) Florida State ranked above (16) Northwestern

Does the committee even know that Jameis Winston declared for the NFL Draft?

Florida State and Northwestern, which share identical 9-2 records, should be the easiest side-by-side ranking of the top 25.

Florida State plays in the worst power five conference and has zero wins over ranked opponents. In fact, FSU’s best win came over an N.C. State team that lost to Virginia Tech by 15 points. In the only ranked game the Seminoles have played this season, they lost by 10 points at Clemson.

Oh yeah, and Florida State lost to a Georgia Tech team that is 3-8. Three wins, eight losses. Georgia Tech’s only win in over two and a half months came against Florida State.

Northwestern, on the other hand, lost to two top ten teams in the country. It has wins over No. 9 Stanford and on the road against previously-ranked Wisconsin. Northwestern also beat Penn State, Nebraska and Duke, all teams better than N.C. State.

But the Wildcats really aren’t even close in the rankings. They’re three spots behind a team with worse wins, a much worse loss and a one-hit wonder schedule. If there was any question the committee doesn’t know what it’s doing, it’s been answered.

(14) North Carolina ranked above (15) Navy

You might look at this example and think, ‘These teams are only one spot apart, why does it matter?’ It matters because the CFP committee has one job, to rank football teams, and it can’t even do that right.

North Carolina is on a 10-game winning streak, which is an impressive feat. But I think more than a handful of college football teams would be on a 10-game winning streak if they played two FCS schools, Illinois, Georgia Tech, Virginia, Wake Forest and Virginia Tech along the way. UNC did beat Miami and Duke, but both games were at home. The team’s best win came over a Pittsburgh team that isn’t ranked in any of the polls.

By the way, the Tarheels lost to South Carolina. Yes, the same South Carolina that is 3-8 and just lost at home to The Citadel.

Unlike UNC, Navy’s lone loss came to a top 10 team. The Midshipmen lost at (6) Notre Dame on Oct. 10 and have since put together a five-game winning streak of their own. Navy has beaten three eight-win teams this season by an average of 19.67 points. North Carolina beat one eight-win team by seven points.

There’s no doubt Navy has put together a much stronger resume than North Carolina this season, but apparently, the committee is too blind to notice.

With every passing week, these mistakes become more and more alarming. The committee is not only whiffing on teams ranked outside the top 10, it can’t even nail down a deserving top four.

If most of the top-ranked teams continue to win and force these “experts” to make a tough decision, I have no confidence they can sit down and pick the four most deserving teams to play for a championship.