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Posts Tagged ‘College Football Playoff’

Michigan’s College Football Playoff rooting guide: Nov. 28

Saturday, November 28th, 2015


Cardinals Stadium

Michigan’s College Football Playoff dreams took an enormous hit Saturday night when Michael Geiger’s 41-yard field goal split the uprights and cracked the Buckeyes in Columbus. The Wolverines not only lost a chance to control their own destiny in the Big Ten race, they also missed out on perhaps two opportunities to play against undefeated, top-five opponents.

Now everything falls into the hands of a Penn State that doesn’t look capable of keeping its star quarterback upright, let alone pulling off a monumental upset. Barring something insane, Michigan will have to settle for a nine or 10-win season, which is pretty incredible, considering the direction the program was trending the last seven years.

But until the final game clock hits zero, we’ll keep pursuing those slim championship hopes.

“I really, really need you”

In honor of Sanka Coffie from Cool Runnings, these teams completely hold Michigan’s fate in their hands. These are the teams that Michigan absolutely needs victories from on Saturday in order to keep the Wolverines’ CFP hopes alive. If even one of these teams falls, Michigan’s CFP dreams die.

No. 10 Michigan (home) over No. 8 Ohio State (12pm, ABC): As always, Michigan has to take care of its own business for any of this to even matter. Jim Harbaugh’s team has done nothing but improve all season and looks like it can compete with almost any team in the country. A win over Ohio State would make the 3:30 kick in East Lansing worth a glance.

Result: Ohio State 42 – Michigan 13

Penn State (away) over No. 5 Michigan State (3:30pm, ABC): This one probably isn’t happening. Michigan State looks to have really hit its stride heading into the final weeks of the season, and Penn State is just limping toward the finish line. If the Spartans win, it’ll be a Big Ten East title for Mark Dantonio.

Result: Michigan State 55 – Penn State 16

“It could happen!”

In honor of JP from Angels in the Outfield, this is the “It could happen” group. These are the teams Michigan is rooting for that have a legitimate chance to win on Saturday. Wins by these teams either help the Wolverines move up in the rankings or improve their resume (in order of kickoff time).

No. 4 Iowa (away) over Nebraska (3:30pm, ABC, Friday): On the off chance that Michigan does get into the Big Ten Championship game next week, it needs an undefeated Iowa, ranked in the top four, to boost its resume. A title game of that magnitude would really propel Michigan into the conversation during the final rankings.

Result: Iowa 28 – Nebraska 20

No. 19 TCU (home) over No. 7 Baylor (8pm, ESPN, Friday): This might be Michigan’s last chance to jump Baylor, as the Bears have only a home date with an awful Texas team remaining. A loss to TCU would put three of the four Big 12 contenders behind Michigan.

Result: TCU 28 – Baylor 21 (2OT)

No. 23 Utah (home) over Colorado (2:30pm, Pac12): Utah has been killing Michigan the last two weeks. Back-to-back losses to Arizona and UCLA has the Utes clinging to the edge of the top 25 and threatening to turn Michigan’s opening loss into a weak one. They cannot afford a loss to Colorado.

Result: Utah 20 – Colorado 14

No. 16 Northwestern (away) over Illinois (3:30pm, ESPNU): The Wildcats have done nothing but help Michigan since being blown out in back-to-back games to the Wolverines and Hawkeyes. Northwestern needs only a win over Illinois to cap off a 10-win regular season and give Michigan one of the best wins (considering the 38-0 score) of the entire football season.

Result: Northwestern 24 – Illinois 14

No. 13 Florida State (away) over No. 12 Florida (7:30pm, ESPN): Since Florida State’s resume pales in comparison to Michigan’s I don’t think a win over Florida would propel the Seminoles into the top 10. Florida, on the other hand, still has the slim chance to jump Michigan if it somehow knocks off Alabama in the SEC title game. A loss to FSU would take care of that worry.

Result: Florida State 27 – Florida 2

No. 9 Stanford (home) over No. 6 Notre Dame (7:30pm, FOX): This is a tough one, because Michigan should pass the loser no matter what if the Wolverines knock off Ohio State. But if Stanford beats Notre Dame, there’s still a chance the Cardinal might lose to UCLA or USC in the Pac-12 title game. That would lift Michigan over both teams if it wins out. Also, Stanford has no business being ranked above Michigan in the first place.

Result: Stanford 38 – Notre Dame 36

No. 11 Oklahoma State (home) over No. 3 Oklahoma (8pm, ABC): There’s definitely a chance Oklahoma State would jump Michigan with a win over vastly over-ranked Oklahoma, but there’s also a chance the Wolverines would hold serve with a win over Ohio State. This is the only scenario that gives Michigan a legitimate shot to shoot above all four Big 12 contenders.

Result: Oklahoma 58 – Oklahoma State 23

“It’s just not believable, Cotton”

In honor of Pepper Brooks, from Dodgeball, these are the true underdog stories. These teams have almost no chance to win, but if they do, it would really help Michigan.

South Carolina (home) over No. 1 Clemson (12pm, ESPN): Hey, it’s the last week of the regular season, why not root for some chaos? It’s not likely that Clemson can do anything to fall below Michigan at this point, but in a rivalry game, on the road, to a team coming off a loss to The Citadel, anything can happen.

Result: Clemson 37 – South Carolina 32

Auburn (home) over No. 2 Alabama (3:30pm, CBS): The Iron Bowl is one of the biggest crapshoots in college football, and a loss to a bad Auburn team would really put pressure on the committee to (finally) punish Alabama. Would the Crimson Tide fall below Michigan? It would certainly have to be under consideration if Michigan beat Ohio State.

Result: Alabama 29 – Auburn 13

North Carolina State (home) over No. 14 North Carolina (3:30pm, ABC/ESPN2): Despite two FCS games and a laughable loss to South Carolina in the nonconference season, North Carolina has ridden a 10-game winning streak over unranked opponents right into the top 15. If the Tarheels did the unthinkable and won the ACC, they might vault Michigan in the rankings. A loss to rival N.C. State would erase any chance of that happening.

Result: North Carolina 45 – N.C. State 34

CFP Rankings: What they missed – Nov. 24, 2015

Friday, November 27th, 2015


CFP banner

The College Football Playoff selection committee cleaned up some of its own mess this week when it released the third-to-last top 25 of the season.

Ohio State and Memphis were both embarrassed on Saturday, forcing the committee to drop both schools from pedestals they didn’t deserve. Even Florida, which hasn’t looked like a top 50 team for weeks, finally paid the price after a slim overtime victory over Florida Atlantic University.

But there are still a rash of alarming mistakes, highlighted by a few I pointed out last week. Stanford is still ranked above Michigan, despite the clear Wolverine edge in both quality wins and outcomes against common opponents. North Carolina is also ranked ahead of a few teams with much better resumes and far fewer cupcake wins over FCS opponents.

For now, let’s dive into some of the new mistakes that emerged from Tuesday’s rankings.

(3) Oklahoma…anywhere near the top 3

While the rest of the country jumps aboard the Sooner bandwagon, I’ve been left wondering what it is about their resume I’m not seeing.

Oklahoma has only played two respectable opponents this season – Baylor and TCU – and neither team had its starting quarterback against the Sooners. Committee chairman Jeff Long touted Oklahoma for dominating Saturday’s contest while its starting quarterback was in the game. But did he realize TCU played with a backup for 60 minutes? The Horned Frogs were also without their top playmaking receiver in the contest.

But a win over a two-loss TCU team playing without its two best players was enough to vault Oklahoma to number three?

Maybe the committee is forgetting Oct. 10, when the Sooners were thoroughly dominated by a terrible 4-7 Texas team that has since lost to the likes of West Virginia and Iowa State? Texas outgained Oklahoma by 90 yards and never trailed in the contest.
How in the world can this happen?

Who should be above Oklahoma? Let’s start with Iowa, a team that, in case you haven’t noticed, is undefeated. The Hawkeyes have two wins – Wisconsin and Northwestern – that are just as impressive as beating Baylor and TCU with backup quarterbacks. And Iowa hasn’t lost to anybody, let alone a 4-7 train wreck like Texas.

Michigan State should also be ahead of Oklahoma. The Spartans have wins over Oregon and Michigan and Ohio State on the road. They went into Columbus and bullied the Buckeyes with two backup quarterbacks. Oklahoma jumping two Big Ten teams with such obviously stronger resumes makes me worry about the integrity of the sport.

If Oklahoma wins out and stays above an undefeated Iowa or one-loss MSU, it’ll be obvious the committee is trying to make up for snubbing the Big 12 last season.

(13) Florida State ranked above (16) Northwestern

Does the committee even know that Jameis Winston declared for the NFL Draft?

Florida State and Northwestern, which share identical 9-2 records, should be the easiest side-by-side ranking of the top 25.

Florida State plays in the worst power five conference and has zero wins over ranked opponents. In fact, FSU’s best win came over an N.C. State team that lost to Virginia Tech by 15 points. In the only ranked game the Seminoles have played this season, they lost by 10 points at Clemson.

Oh yeah, and Florida State lost to a Georgia Tech team that is 3-8. Three wins, eight losses. Georgia Tech’s only win in over two and a half months came against Florida State.

Northwestern, on the other hand, lost to two top ten teams in the country. It has wins over No. 9 Stanford and on the road against previously-ranked Wisconsin. Northwestern also beat Penn State, Nebraska and Duke, all teams better than N.C. State.

But the Wildcats really aren’t even close in the rankings. They’re three spots behind a team with worse wins, a much worse loss and a one-hit wonder schedule. If there was any question the committee doesn’t know what it’s doing, it’s been answered.

(14) North Carolina ranked above (15) Navy

You might look at this example and think, ‘These teams are only one spot apart, why does it matter?’ It matters because the CFP committee has one job, to rank football teams, and it can’t even do that right.

North Carolina is on a 10-game winning streak, which is an impressive feat. But I think more than a handful of college football teams would be on a 10-game winning streak if they played two FCS schools, Illinois, Georgia Tech, Virginia, Wake Forest and Virginia Tech along the way. UNC did beat Miami and Duke, but both games were at home. The team’s best win came over a Pittsburgh team that isn’t ranked in any of the polls.

By the way, the Tarheels lost to South Carolina. Yes, the same South Carolina that is 3-8 and just lost at home to The Citadel.

Unlike UNC, Navy’s lone loss came to a top 10 team. The Midshipmen lost at (6) Notre Dame on Oct. 10 and have since put together a five-game winning streak of their own. Navy has beaten three eight-win teams this season by an average of 19.67 points. North Carolina beat one eight-win team by seven points.

There’s no doubt Navy has put together a much stronger resume than North Carolina this season, but apparently, the committee is too blind to notice.

With every passing week, these mistakes become more and more alarming. The committee is not only whiffing on teams ranked outside the top 10, it can’t even nail down a deserving top four.

If most of the top-ranked teams continue to win and force these “experts” to make a tough decision, I have no confidence they can sit down and pick the four most deserving teams to play for a championship.

Michigan’s College Football Playoff rooting guide: Nov. 21

Saturday, November 21st, 2015


Cardinals Stadium

Upsets around the country kept Michigan’s razor thin playoff hopes alive in Week 11 as four top 10 teams lost, two of which fell below the Wolverines in the rankings. But the playoff committee still isn’t sold on Jim Harbaugh’s team, which moved up only two spots to No. 12.

Michigan will have its eye on another deep slate of games around the country Saturday, highlighted by a pair of Big Ten matchups necessary to keep its East Division title hopes alive. Can the Wolverines win in Happy Valley and slip into the top 10?

Here are the teams Michigan should root for:

“I really, really need you”

In honor of Sanka Coffie from Cool Runnings, these teams completely hold Michigan’s fate in their hands. These are the teams that Michigan absolutely needs victories from on Saturday in order to keep the Wolverines’ CFP hopes alive. If even one of these teams falls, Michigan’s CFP dreams die.

No. 12 Michigan (away) against Penn State (12pm, ABC): It goes without saying that the most important game of the weekend for Michigan is its own. Penn State is undefeated at home this season and Christian Hackenberg is playing likely his last game at Beaver Stadium. A loss would end the Wolverines’ national relevance.

Result: Michigan 28 – Penn State 16

No. 3 Ohio State (home) against No. 9 Michigan State (3:30pm, ABC): Does it feel dirty to read this? It should, but that’s what happens when you lose to MSU at home and put your destiny in someone else’s hands. Without an OSU win Saturday, Michigan can kiss its Big Ten title hopes goodbye.

Result: Michigan State 17 – Ohio State 14

“It could happen!”

In honor of JP from Angels in the Outfield, this is the “It could happen” group. These are the teams Michigan is rooting for that have a legitimate chance to win on Saturday. Wins by these teams either help the Wolverines move up in the rankings or improve their resume (in order of kickoff time).

Virginia Tech (home) against No. 17 North Carolina (12pn, ESPN): Despite an opening season loss to terrible South Carolina and a pair of cupcake wins over FCS schools, North Carolina is shooting up the playoff rankings. The Tarheels could be dangerous if they head into the ACC title game on an 11-game winning streak, so Michigan will be rooting for the Hokies.

Result: North Carolina 30 – Virginia Tech 27

No. 5 Iowa (home) against Purdue (12pm, ESPN2): This should be an easy win for Iowa, a team Michigan needs to stay unbeaten into the Big Ten championship game if it has any hopes of jumping into the top four.

Result: Iowa 40 – Purdue 20

No. 20 Northwestern (away) against No. 25 Wisconsin (3:30pm, BTN): I can’t stress how important this game is for Michigan’s resume. With a win, Northwestern would establish itself as a no-doubt top 15 team with four solid wins on the season. That would make Michigan’s 38-0 win over the Wildcats so much more impressive. Unfortunately, a loss might (unfairly) knock Northwestern out of the top 25 altogether.

Result: Northwestern 13 – Wisconsin 7

No. 13 Utah (home) against UCLA (3:30pm, FOX): Now that the Utes have dropped below the Wolverines in the rankings, Michigan needs Utah to keep winning. As long as Utah stays in the top 15, that loss back in Week 1 doesn’t look too bad.

Result: UCLA 17 – Utah 9

No. 22 Ole Miss (home) against No. 15 LSU (3:30pm, CBS): The College Football Playoff committee loves to overreact when one overrated SEC team beats another overrated SEC team. Michigan could get jumped by LSU if the Tigers win on the road against an average Mississippi squad, so Michigan needs this one to go to the Rebels.

Result: Ole Miss 38 – LSU 17

No. 6 Oklahoma State (home) against No. 10 Baylor (7:30pm, FOX): Unfortunately for most of the ranked teams currently on the outside looking in, the Big 12 played a cupcake-laden schedule through the first nine weeks of the season to inflate its rankings before matching up with any real competition. So Michigan finds itself behind three Big 12 teams with only two weeks to go. The problem is, the Big 12 teams are all playing against each other, so they can’t all lose. I won’t go over the entire scenario here, but there is a way Michigan can vault ahead of all four (Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, Baylor and TCU). That scenario begins with an Oklahoma State win over Baylor Saturday.

Result: Baylor 45 – Oklahoma State 35

“It’s just not believable, Cotton”

In honor of Pepper Brooks, from Dodgeball, these are the true underdog stories. These teams have almost no chance to win, but if they do, it would really help Michigan.

Florida Atlantic (away) against No. 8 Florida (12pm, SECN): Well, the Gators did almost lose to Vanderbilt two weeks ago. If Florida Atlantic doesn’t take care of Florida, Florida State probably will.

Result: Florida 20 – Florida Atlantic 14 (OT)

Boston College (away) against No. 4 Notre Dame (7:30pm, NBCSN): This game will probably be over by the end of the first quarter.

Result: Notre Dame 19 – Boston College 16

No. 18 TCU (away) against No. 7 Oklahoma (8pm, ABC): Yes, TCU is ranked in the top 20, but I just don’t see the Horned Frogs having any chance on the road against the Sooners. TCU barely held on against a putrid Kansas team last year as the injuries appear to have caught up with the Frogs. Oklahoma has no business being in the top 10 after losing to Texas and playing only one ranked team in its first 10 games, but that’s how the committee operates.

Result: Oklahoma 30 – TCU 29

California (away) against No. 11 Stanford (10:30pm, ESPN): Apparently having better wins, better losses and better outcomes against common opponents isn’t enough to boost Michigan ahead of Stanford in the rankings. Unfortunately, it’ll be up to a bad Cal team to help the Wolverines change that this week. If the Cardinal loses this weekend, Michigan can root for it to knock off Notre Dame next Saturday.

Result: Stanford 35 – California 16

Charleston Southern (away) against No. 2 Alabama (4pm, SECN): This would never happen, but it would be hilarious if Alabama lost after Nick Saban’s rant about how good Charleston Southern is. Hey, maybe losing to an FCS school would drop Alabama out of the top 5.

Result: Alabama 56 – Charleston Southern 6

Alarming CFP ranking mistakes cast shadow over wonderful weekend

Friday, November 20th, 2015


CFP banner

Week 12 of the 2015 college football season embodied everything that’s great about college sports. Four of the top 10 teams fell in upset fashion and seven additional games featuring ranked teams were decided by a single score. Two teams, Michigan and Utah, played into double overtime on the road. Kansas, 0-10 on the season, had three chances to knock off one of the Big 12’s best teams on the road.

The weekend was perfect, but Tuesday night was not.

At this time of year, Tuesdays become almost as important as what happens on the field on Saturdays. Tuesday nights are when the College Football Playoff committee releases its weekly rankings and reveal which teams have the chance to play for the National Championship.

The committee is given the most important job in college sports. I won’t bore you with details, but thousands of students and coaches dedicate their lives to each season. Hundreds of millions are spent (and more importantly, earned) through games, travel, television deals and merchandise. This entire process is held together by the common aspiration of every major program in the country: To win championships.

Despite all the chaos that happens on the field, the committee’s job is relatively simple. They put two resumes next to each other, and the better one is ranked higher. Is it the committee’s job to guess which teams are the best? No. The ranking process should be all about resumes. If it’s not, then what’s the point of playing the games?

In spite of the beautiful simplicity of this process, the committee still manages to make baffling mistakes each and every week. It harks on criteria like head-to-head outcomes, scores against common opponents and strength of schedule, yet when the rankings are released, those factors seem to take a back seat to a more ambiguous placement process.

It’s not the committee’s job to get most of the rankings right, it’s the committee’s job to get all of the rankings right. If you disagree, just talk to the players who poured their hearts and souls into 12 fall Saturdays only to finish below a team that didn’t have as strong of a season. When the committee can’t correctly rank Nos. 10-25, why should we have any faith it’ll pick the right teams for the final four?

Before you read any further, remember: This is my opinion on the rankings, and yes, I know only the final top 25 matters. But the weeks leading up to that reveal are important because they set the stage and give us a look at how the committee operates.

Take a look at some of the problems I found in this week’s rankings.

(3) Ohio State ranked above (5) Iowa
Comparison
Ohio State logo new  Iowa logo
10-0 (6-0) Record 10-0 (6-0)
0-0 vs Top 25 2-0
59 SOS 53
22.6 Scoring Margin 15.2
1 Record vs P5 teams over .500 3
Penn State
N. Illinois
W. Michigan
Best Wins at #20 Northwestern
at #25 Wisconsin
Pittsburgh

One of the simplest mistakes the committee has made in the first three weeks concerns the Big Ten, which features four top-12 teams.

The conference’s remaining undefeated teams, Ohio State and Iowa, would eventually have to meet in the conference championship game, should they both continue to win. But even so, their placement is an example of the committee refusing to use solid evidence in the rankings.

Do I think Iowa is a better team than Ohio State? Absolutely not. But Iowa has three wins over power five teams with at least seven victories, two of which came against ranked teams on the road. Ohio State, on the other hand, has only one win against a winning power five team: A home win over 7-3 Penn State. The best three wins on Iowa’s resume came at (20) Northwestern and (25) Wisconsin and against Pittsburgh. Ohio State’s best three wins came at home against Penn State, Northern Illinois and Western Michigan.

So how does Ohio State land in the top four while Iowa sits on the outside looking in? There really isn’t a good answer. The Hawkeyes went on the road and dismantled the 20th-ranked Wildcats by 30 points last month. The only teams Ohio State beat by 30 were Hawaii and Rutgers.

Sure, this will work itself out on Dec. 5 if the teams meet in Indianapolis. But what if these teams weren’t in the same conference? It’s alarming that the committee feels it can take matters into its own hands instead of letting the play on the field determine who makes the top four.

(11) Stanford ranked above (12) Michigan
Comparison
Stanford Logo Maize M
8-2 (7-1) Record 8-2 (5-1)
2-2 vs Top 25 1-2
40 SOS 37
15.0 Scoring Margin 17.8
at #22 USC (41-31) Best Win #20 Northwestern (38-0)
at #20 Northwestern
#23 Oregon
Losses Current #13 Utah
#9 Michigan State

Here’s the most indefensible example of the committee completely whiffing on teams with identical records and completely different resumes.

Let’s break down both bodies of work. Michigan’s two losses came to the 9th and current 13th-ranked teams in the country and Stanford’s two losses came to the 20th and 23rd-ranked teams in the country.

Was Stanford more competitive in those loses? Well, the Cardinal lost its season opener by 10 points. The Wolverines lost their first game of an entirely new system by a touchdown. Stanford lost to Oregon after being outplayed from start to finish. Michigan lost to Michigan State after outplaying the Spartans start to finish.

Okay, so it’s not because of the losses.

Maybe Stanford has a better win? Strike two. Stanford’s best victory came over the 24th-ranked team in the country. Michigan blew out the 20th-ranked team in the country.

How about their performances against common opponents, which is specifically outlined as one of the main criterion of the rankings? Michigan finished 2-0 against the common opponents (Northwestern and Oregon State) with a combined score of 73-7. Stanford finished 1-1 with a combined score of 48-40. The Wolverines beat Northwestern by 38 points and Stanford lost to Northwestern by 10 points. That’s a 48-point difference.

But it’s not enough for the committee. Jeff Long and company can’t even build a top 25 by the standards they created. Michigan has a far better resume than Stanford, but the committee threw the Cardinal one spot ahead of the Wolverines. Strike three.

(17) North Carolina ranked above (20) Northwestern
Comparison
 UNC NorthwesternLogo
9-1 (6-0) Record 8-2 (4-2)
0-0 vs Top 25 1-2
101 SOS 21
22.6 Scoring Margin 15.2
at Pittsburgh (29-16) Best Win #15 Stanford (16-6)
South Carolina Losses at #14 Michigan
#6 Iowa

Now I’ll give you an example of the committee completely overreacting to one week. On Tuesday, it announced that North Carolina, previously ranked 23rd, jumped up six spots to 17th.

You’re probably thinking, ‘Wow, which top 10 team did the Tarheels knock off to earn such a jump?’ Actually, all UNC did was knock off one of the biggest dumpster fires of the season, Miami, at home. How does a win over a team that’s lucky – and I mean LUCKY (see Miami’s win over Duke) – to have an above .500 record vault North Carolina over a team like Northwestern?

North Carolina hasn’t played a single ranked team this season. In fact, UNC’s best win came over a Pittsburgh team that has one win over an above .500 team. The Tarheels spent their preconference season playing two FCS schools and two bottom-feeder power five teams. Oh yeah, and they lost to a 3-7 team.

Meanwhile, Northwestern already played three teams ranked in the top 12 of the playoff rankings, including a comfortable 10-point win over Stanford. The Wildcats also won at Duke before the Blue Devils had the wind taken out of their sails by the officials in the Miami game. For good measure, Pat Fitzgerald’s team won at Nebraska and knocked off seven-win Penn State.

Sure, Northwestern has two losses and North Carolina only has one. But as we’ve seen in Alabama’s rise to No. 2, that isn’t the most important factor in the rankings. It’s flooring that a win over a team as bad as Miami can boost North Carolina over a team that’s played a much better schedule and has much better wins.

(21) Memphis loses… but doesn’t fall

When I saw Memphis ranked at No. 21 in this week’s polls, I couldn’t help but laugh.

After getting dumped by Navy – by a score of 45-20 – Memphis fell eight spots to No. 21 in week 11. This weekend, the Tigers blew a huge 4th-quarter lead to Houston and lost their second straight game. But despite the two-game losing streak and the clear exposing of this team’s defense (80 points allowed in the last two weeks), Memphis didn’t fall a single spot in the rankings.

Here’s the kicker: Memphis didn’t even lose to a team ranked higher in the rankings. The committee ranked undefeated Houston 24th in week 11 and Memphis lost to Houston. Clearly, that means Memphis isn’t as good as the committee thought. But there isn’t any accountability for the loss.

How can you lose a game and not be penalized? That’s a world of college football I don’t want to live in. Most of these teams will have a chance to move up over the next few weeks, but that doesn’t change the clear miscues the committee has made through three weeks.

College football deserves a committee that can get this right. Every season is a clean slate and teams that earn the right to compete for a title this year should be given the chance to do so by the committee. If not, the playoff is no better than the BCS.

Michigan’s College Football Playoff rooting guide: Nov. 14

Saturday, November 14th, 2015


Cardinals Stadium

Only four weekends separate us from when the College Football Playoff and bowl game selection committees will make their final decisions and determine the fate of teams that have earned the right to play in the postseason.

Through Week 10, more than 100 FBS teams have been realistically eliminated from playoff contention. Michigan, an enormous long shot to make the Final Four, is one of the teams still in the hunt. But since the Wolverines already lost two games, they need a ton of help over the next four weeks.

Yes, it would take a Hollywood movie-type finish to the season for Michigan to slip into the top four. But until that last glimmer of hope dies, Michigan fans should enjoy the team’s first meaningful home stretch in almost a decade.

We’ll stick with the movie theme as we break down the first of the final four Saturdays. If you’re a Michigan fan holding out hope, here’s what you should root for.

“I really, really need you”

In honor of Sanka Coffie from Cool Runnings, these teams completely hold Michigan’s fate in their hands. These are the teams that Michigan absolutely needs victories from on Saturday in order to keep the Wolverines’ CFP hopes alive. If even one of these teams falls, Michigan’s CFP dreams die.

No. 14 Michigan (away) against Indiana (3:30pm, ABC): The only absolutely essential game for Michigan this weekend is its own contest in Bloomington. Thanks to a pair of early losses, the Wolverines don’t have any room for error. As soon as they drop a third game, it’s all over.

Result: Michigan 48 – Indiana 41 (2OT)

“It could happen!”

In honor of JP from Angels in the Outfield, this is the “It could happen” group. These are the teams Michigan is rooting for that have a legitimate chance to win on Saturday. Wins by these teams either help the Wolverines move up in the rankings or improve their resume (in order of kickoff time).

South Carolina (home) against No. 11 Florida (12pm, ESPN): Florida will win the SEC East and play in the conference championship game, so there’s another loss in the future. But after a 9-7 win over Vanderbilt last week, a loss to 3-6 South Carolina would drop Florida well below Michigan.

Result: Florida 24 – South Carolina 14

No. 3 Ohio State (away) against Illinois (12pm, ABC): This one might be tough to understand, but Michigan actually needs the Buckeyes to be undefeated when they come to Ann Arbor. A win against a top two team in the country would prompt a big jump for the Wolverines.

Result: Ohio State 28 – Illinois 3

No. 13 Michigan State (home) against Maryland (12pm, ESPN2): Even more surprising than rooting for Ohio State? Michigan needs MSU to bounce back against Maryland. The Wolverines already need the Spartans to lose next weekend in Columbus to have a shot to win the Big Ten, so this week’s game is very important. If Michigan State loses to Maryland and makes it three straight against in Columbus, it’ll drop out of the top 25. That would make Michigan’s loss in October much less forgivable.

Result: Michigan State 24 – Maryland 7

No. 18 Northwestern (home) against Purdue (12pm, BTN): Northwestern is Michigan’s best win of the season. As long as Pat Fitzgerald’s team keeps winning, Michigan’s resume gets better and better. If the Wildcats lose to Purdue, everything they’ve worked for comes crashing down.

Result: Northwestern 21 – Purdue 14

No. 2 Alabama (away) against No. 17 Mississippi State (3:30pm, CBS): Here’s another strange one, but Michigan needs Alabama to lose for two reasons. First, the CFP committee has proven it WILL NOT penalize Alabama for losing, no matter the conditions. Nick Saban’s team lost at home to an unranked team and still sits ahead of five of the six unbeaten teams in the country. So since Alabama will stay ahead of Michigan no matter what happens, the Wolverines might as well avoid being jumped by Mississippi State in the process.

Result: Alabama 31 – Mississippi State 6

Iowa State (home) against No. 8 Oklahoma State (3:30pm, ESPN): Oklahoma State burst onto the scene when it stomped TCU by 20 last weekend. Now, with both Oklahoma and Baylor coming to town over the next two weeks, Michigan needs a team like Iowa State to do the dirty work and knock off the undefeated Cowboys. With no conference championship game, Big 12 teams will have a hard time bouncing back from losses like that.

Result: Oklahoma State 35 – Iowa State 31

No. 12 Oklahoma (away) against No. 6 Baylor (8pm, ABC): Since the Bears lost their starting quarterback to a neck injury, the entire country has been waiting for them to slip up. Once they do, their fall in the polls will be a long one. Without a quality victory to its name, Baylor would fall out of contention with a home loss to Oklahoma. As far as the Sooners, they’ve still got games against TCU and Oklahoma State on the horizon. Michigan can hope for a slip up in one of those contests.

Result: Oklahoma 44 – Baylor 34

No. 5 Iowa (home) against Minnesota (8pm, BTN): If you actually think Michigan has a chance to slip into the top four, you need Iowa to keep winning and head into the Big Ten Championship Game with a 12-0 record. That would mean another opportunity for a top five win.

Iowa 40 – Minnesota 35

“It’s just not believable, Cotton”

In honor of Pepper Brooks, from Dodgeball, these are the true underdog stories. These teams have almost no chance to win, but if they do, it would really help Michigan.

N.C. State (away) against No. 16 Florida State (12:30pm, ESPN3): Another incredible oversight by the CFP committee: Florida State lost a game last weekend and didn’t drop a single spot. Yes, it was to the No. 1 team in the country on the road, but a loss is a loss. If N.C. State pulls an unlikely upset, FSU becomes an afterthought.

Result: Florida State 34 – N.C. State 17

Wake Forest (away) against No. 4 Notre Dame (3:30pm, NBC): Wake Forest is really, really bad. As Notre Dame’s second loss, this would likely drop the Irish out of the top 15.

Result: Notre Dame 28 – Wake Forest 7

Arkansas (away) against No. 9 LSU (7:15pm, ESPN): LSU got pounded against Alabama last week and now faces a streaking Arkansas team. Another loss would devastate Leonard Fournette and Company.

Result: Arkansas 31 – LSU 14

Arizona (home) against No. 10 Utah (10pm, FS1): “How can you ask me to root for Rich Rod’s team!?” Because Arizona is irrelevant on the national scale and Utah is ranked ahead of Michigan. Yes, a Utes loss would diminish Michigan’s opening-week game, but Utah could still win the Pac-12 South and finish in the top 15 with two losses. As long as the Utes stay in the top 25, it’s more important for Michigan to jump them in the poll.

Result: Arizona 37 – Utah 30

Oregon (away) against No. 7 Stanford (7:30pm, FOX): Oregon is starting to play a bit better, but this game is still a long shot. If Stanford losses its second game of the season, Michigan will definitely jump ahead of the Cardinal because of a win against their only common opponent: Northwestern.

Result: Oregon 38 – Stanford 36