I’m on a business trip (down in SEC country, no less, so hopefully I can find a bar willing to turn to the Big Ten Network) and haven’t had much spare time the past couple of days, so this is going to be a bit shorter than usual and I apologize for that. Check back around lunch time today for a more in-depth breakdown from our M&GB Staff Predictions. Next week we will resume our regularly scheduled and more detailed programming.

Michigan enters conference play at what feels like a disappointing 2-2 because I still think Notre Dame is very beatable. Alabama isn’t likely to lose all season, so the sting of that loss has long since worn off, but Michigan should be 3-1. But alas, 2-2 it is, and despite that, the season’s main goal – winning the Big Ten championship – is still within reach. The pursuit of that goal begins tomorrow with a trip to West Lafayette, Indiana to face a resurgent Purdue squad that has its own sights sent on a Big Ten title.

Ross-Ade Stadium  -  West Lafayette, Ind. 4pm EST  -  Big Ten Network ______________ Purdue Head Coach: Danny Hope (4th season) Coaching Record: 19-22 (at Purdue), 54-44 (Overall) Offensive Coordinator: Gary Nord Defensive Coordinator: Tim Tibesar Returning Starters: 13 (6 offense, 7 defense) Last Season: 7-6 (4-4) Last Meeting: Michigan 34 – Purdue 16 (2011) All-time Series: Michigan leads 43-14 Michigan at Purdue: Michigan leads 15-9 Michigan at Ross-Ade Stadium: Michigan leads 12-7 Current Streak: Michigan 2

Michigan has been challenged like no other team in the conference has in the first four games and that will benefit the Wolverines. Purdue, on the other hand, has faced Notre Dame and a bunch of cupcakes. But to their credit, the Boilermakers have looked pretty impressive against them. They hung tough with Notre Dame and beat Eastern Kentucky, Eastern Michigan, and Marshall 30 points – and the Marshall game wasn’t as close as the final score indicates.

So is Purdue as good as its early-season performance, or have the Boilers just benefited from a weak schedule? Let’s look at the matchups.

When Purdue has the ball

Quarterback Caleb TerBush has been consistent this season, completing 51-of-80 passes for 531 yards, seven touchdowns, and four interceptions in thee games (he didn’t play in the season opener). However, most of those numbers were compiled against Eastern Michigan and Marshall. Against Notre Dame, his numbers were even worse than Denard’s, but with fewer interceptions. He completed 8-of-19 for 79 yards, a touchdown, and two picks. His mate Robert Marve had a decent game against the Irish before he got hurt.

There’s a chance Marve could return to action tomorrow, though he’ll be returning from yet another ACL injury, so it’s unlikely that he’ll be much of a difference maker if he does play.

In the backfield, the two Akeems – Shavers and Hunt – carry the load. Shavers has the most carries on the team with 58 for 240 yards and three touchdowns, but Hunt is the big play back with 18 carries for 169 yards (9.4 yards per carry). Sophomore Brandon Cottom is a burner who recorded an 87-yard touchdown run against EMU.

On the outside, Antavian Edison, O.J. Ross, and Gary Bush are the guys to watch. The trio has combined for 67 receptions for 658 yards and nine touchdowns. Edison has caught at least five passes and a touchdown in each game this season, including both touchdowns against Notre Dame. He’s a threat especially on third down and Michigan’s defense will have its hands full with him. Ross also has at least five receptions in every game this season but has yet to find the end zone, while Bush is coming off a seven-catch, 83-yard, three-touchdown performance.

The Boilers have a pretty diverse offense that uses a mix of power and spread, but it favors the spread. They like to throw bubble screens, slants, and crossing patterns to counter pressure, as well as utilize the backs as pass catchers. Michigan had good success in stopping TerBush last year in Ann Arbor and will look to bring a lot of pressure to force him into mistakes like Notre Dame did, both to him and to Denard. Purdue has allowed eight sacks this season, so the ability of Michigan’s front seven to get to TerBush, as well as the secondary to keep the short passing game in check will be a key to watch for.

Rushing Yards: 27 – Denard will pass Chris Perry for 6th in career rushing yards. With 192, he could pass Butch Woolfolk for 5th. With 226, he will be come the Big Ten’s all-time leader in rushing yards by a quarterback, passing Indiana’s Antwaan Randle-El Rushing Touchdowns: 1 – Denard will pass Chris Perry for 4th in career rushing touchdowns. With 3 he will pass Mike Hart for 3rd. 100 rushing yards: Denard will pass Butch Woolfolk for 5th in career 100-yard rushing games. Passing Attempts: 33 - Denard will pass Tom Brady and Todd Collins for 4th in career passing attempts. Pass Completions: 52 – Denard will pass Tom Brady for 5th in career completions. Passing yards: 91 – Denard will pass Todd Collins for 4th in career passing yards. Passing Touchdowns: 3 – Denard will pass Rick Leach for 4th in career passing touchdowns.

When Michigan has the ball

Purdue’s defensive front has been stout against the run, ranking 23rd nationally at allowing just 106.5 yards per game. Tackle Kawann Short is a stud. The pass defense, however, is a different story, giving up 248 yards per game through the air. The Boilers’ secondary was projected to be the teams’ strength heading into the season, but so far hasn’t lived up to the expectations. Marshall passed for 439 yards and Notre Dame for 324.

As I said in Wednesday’s Friend vs Foe feature, look for a similar game plan to what I expected to see against Notre Dame. A quick, short passing game to back the defense off and open up the run. I think Al Borges has finally realized that it’s time to stop forcing Denard to be Tom Brady and just let him be Denard. Look for Borges to get Devin Funchess involved again in a big way after a no-show against the Irish.

The other third

Purdue’s kickers, Paul Griggs and Sam McCartney have only attempted two field goals this season and made both. Interestingly, the duo has missed four of 24 extra points already, however. Punter Cody Webster has an average of 44.1 yard per punt with 10 of 15 downed inside the 20. The return game hasn’t been dazzling as the Boilers rank 61st and 84th nationally in kick and punt returns, respectively.

Prediction

It will be closer than most would expect for Michigan against Purdue, but the Boilermakers are in such a unique position that they’ll put up a good fight. With Ohio State and Penn State out of contention and Wisconsin looking very un-Wisconsin, Danny Hope can practically taste the bits of food at the end of his mustache. But Michigan is historically good after a bye week and Michigan’s offense will get back to the basics like it did in the latter half of last season. Forget the fluff, stick to what it does best, and execute.

Michigan 30 – Purdue 21

Fresh off the bye week, we are proud to feature Travis from the Purdue SB Nation blog Hammer and Rails. He will provide his perspective on how or why Purdue can beat Michigan on Saturday. Remember, this isn’t an actual game prediction. It’s just an attempt to describe how or why each team can win from each side of the matchup.

The case for Purdue
by Travis

Purdue is a team that I am still trying to figure out. It is one that is averaging 45 points per game but hasn’t really played that well offensively. The numbers are a little skewed because we have three defensive scores and we’ve played three pretty lousy defenses. We still have scored the most points of anyone against Notre Dame and had we not been dumb enough to bench a hot Robert Marve for three series against the Irish it probably would have been more.

For now, at least, the quarterback situation is settled. Caleb TerBush is starting and Rob Henry is playing a few wildcat snaps per game. Marve was in street clothes on the sideline last week. He has said he will try to come back and play this season, but no one really trusts his left knee. It is a shame too, because he was playing at a high level and it looked like he was finally living up to his hype.

Defensively I am not too concerned about giving up 41 points last week. Seven came from a blocked punt returned for a touchdown and six more as the result of a questionable penalty call that erased a fourth down stop. Marshall’s offense is also really, really good. They got the bulk of their points after we were already up by four scores and we were sitting back to avoid the big play.

I am most interested to see how our defensive line does against Denard Robinson. Ricardo Allen and Josh Johnson each had pick sixes last week and Allen already has one against Robinson. I am confident in the secondary’s ability against the pass. We have a league leading eight interceptions as a team and Michigan leads the league in thrown INTs.

Kawann Short also has the ability to get after Robinson all day like Ryan Kerrigan did two years ago. Ultimately, it comes down to the Michigan offense. If nearly unstoppable Denard shows up you can beat anyone. If Notre Dame Denard shows up Purdue should win easily.

The case for Michigan
by Justin

Purdue has looked impressive in the early going this season, hanging tough with Notre Dame and blowing out its three cupcakes. As mentioned in Monday’s First Look, the Boilermakers have a top-40 offense that has been pretty balanced (32nd nationally in rushing and 43rd in passing) and high-scoring (42.5 points per game).

Two weeks ago, I questioned whether Notre Dame’s early season hype was simply a result of beating a Michigan State squad that was rated much higher than it should have been. I still think that’s the case despite Michigan losing to the Irish. In a similar vein, it’s hard to tell how good Purdue actually is. The Boilers blew out Eastern Kentucky, Eastern Michigan, and Marshall, but those are some of the worst defensive teams in college football. But against Notre Dame, Purdue held its own, at least on the scoreboard.

Quarterback Caleb TerBush has been steady and running backs Akeem Shavers and Akeem Hunt have averaged 5.4 yards per carry for what is currently the Big Ten’s fourth best rushing offense. Yesterday, Purdue head coach Danny Hope announced that quarterback Robert Marve and running back Ralph Bolden may return from injuries for the Michigan game, which will only enhance the Boilers’ offensive firepower. Michigan’s defense did well to stop Notre Dame, but Purdue’s offense is more balanced, so the Boilers should be able to score some points.

Where Michigan is going to win the game is on the offensive side of the ball. The game plan must get back to what Denard Robinson does best, and that’s a short passing game and using his legs. Purdue’s defensive front is good – 25th nationally with 11 sacks – and its secondary has been giving up chunks of yardage – 81st nationally in pass defense. Offensive coordinator Al Borges can’t sit Denard in the pocket and rely on him to make reads against a pass rush like he did against the Irish.

To beat Purdue, Denard’s going to have to throw the ball, but it needs to be more controlled. Notre Dame passed for 324 yards on Purdue and Michigan can certainly do the same. I think the key to this one is exactly like I said it would be for last week: a dink-and-dunk passing game early on with a long ball here and there to soften the defense before Michigan turns to the run game. If the game plan that was actually put into place last week is rehashed on Saturday, we’ll be in for disappointment. But after last week’s performance, I think even Borges has realized it’s time to just get to doing what we all know Denard can do and stop forcing him to be something he’s not.

Read our preseason Purdue preview here.

With Ohio State and Penn State ineligible for the postseason and Wisconsin looking uninspiring, this might be the year for Purdue to earn a spot in the Big Ten championship game. The Boilermakers blew out Eastern Kentucky in the season opener and then almost shocked Notre Dame in South Bend in Week 2, falling 20-17. Purdue bounced back with convincing wins over Eastern Michigan and Marshall. Are the Boilers for real this year? Let’s take a look.

Purdue 2012 Statistics & Michigan Comparison
	Purdue | Michigan	Rank	Opponent	Rank
Points Per Game	42.5 | 28.5	13 | 59	20.8 | 23.0	39 | 53
Rushing Yards	806 | 738		426 | 728
Rush Avg. Per Game	201.5 | 184.5	32 | 45	106.5 | 182	23 | 87
Avg. Per Rush	4.9 | 5.1		3.3 | 4.0
Passing Yards	1,048 | 837		992 | 618
Pass Avg. Per Game	262 | 209.2	43 | 89	248 | 154.5	81 | 9
Total Offense	1,854 | 1,575		1,418 | 1,346
Total Off Avg. Per Game	463.5 | 393.8	38 | 74	354.5 | 336.5	43 | 31
Kick Return Average	21.5 | 23.4	61 | 40	20.8 | 23.8	60 | 94
Punt Return Average	6.1 | 5.0	84 | 91	7.7 | 5.2	67 | 46
Avg. Time of Possession	31:14 | 29:22	42 | 72	28:46 | 30:38
3rd Down Conversion Pct	58% | 47%	3 | 32	42% | 44%	83 | 91
Sacks By-Yards	11-83 | 3-45	25 | 116	8-64 | 5-38	67 | 32
Touchdowns Scored	24 | 15		11 | 10
Field Goals-Attempts	2-2 | 3-4		3-6 | 7-10
Red Zone Scores	(17-19) 89% | (11-14) 79%	26 | 75	(10-14) 71% | (12-15) 80%	25 | 59
Red Zone Touchdowns	(15-19) 79% | (8-14) 57%		(7-14) 50% | (7-15) 47%

Purdue has one of the nation’s top scoring offenses so far this season, averaging 42.5 points per game. But aside from Notre Dame, which ranks third nationally and held the Boilers to just 17 points, the defenses they have faced rank 105th (EMU), 120th (Marshall), and 48th in FCS (EKU) in scoring defense. That being said, Purdue managed 11 more points against Notre Dame than Michigan did. That’s perhaps the one game we can use to properly determine how good this Purdue team is.

It was the second game of the season, and before we had any indication of how strong either team would be. Notre Dame scored first, but Purdue answered to knot the score at seven at the half. The third quarter was all Notre Dame as the Irish took a 17-7 lead. But Purdue fought back in the fourth, kicking a 33-yard field goal and scoring a touchdown on a 15-yard pass with 2:12 remaining to tie the game. However, Notre Dame marched down the field for the game-winning field goal with seven seconds left. It was the closest game the Irish have played so far and the most points they have allowed.

In that game, Purdue’s offensive numbers were pretty similar to Michigan’s against the Irish – both teams moved the ball pretty well (Michigan had 299 total yards, Purdue had 288) and converted third downs – but Purdue took much better care of the ball (two interceptions versus Michigan’s six turnovers) and converted all three of its red zone chances. In other words, Purdue’s offense was more efficient but still managed to lose. That’s because the defense couldn’t stop Notre Dame’s passing game.

The Irish completed 24-of-39 passes for 324 yards on Purdue’s secondary. It’s a secondary that ranks 81st nationally and may just be the weakness of the team despite entering the season as the projected strength. Marshall passed for 439 yards against the Boilers this past Saturday, but then again, the Thundering Herd have been doing that to everyone this season.

The Purdue rush defense has been strong, having not allowed an individual 100-yard rusher yet this season. Notre Dame managed just 52 total rushing yards and only Eastern Michigan (169) has rushed for over 100 as a team against the Boilers. The stout rush defense is led by tackle Kawann Short who leads the team with seven tackles for loss and four sacks. The leading tackler is linebacker Will Lucas with 25.

Offensively, the Boilers had been rotating Caleb TerBush and Robert Marve at quarterback until Marve tore his ACL against Notre Dame. The job is now held by TerBush with Rob Herny coming in occasionally. TerBush has completed 64 percent of his passes for 531 yards, seven touchdowns, and four interceptions, while Henry has thrown just 15 passes for 103 yards, a touchdown, and an interception. TerBush has the second most carries (20) on the team, behind only running back Akeem Shavers.

Michigan has won two straight in the series after losing to Purdue in 2008 and ’09, but Michigan has dominated the all-time series 43-14. Purdue has its sights set on a historic season with the Big Ten championship game in reach, and Michigan has the same. The conference opener for both teams should be a tough battle and the winner will be one step closer to a Big Ten title.

Chugging right along with our 2012 preseason opponent preview series, we take a look at the sixth easiest (or seventh toughest) opponent on the schedule, the Purdue Boilermakers. Previously, we looked at, from easiest to toughest, UMass, Minnesota, Illinois, Northwestern, and Iowa.

Overview

If there was ever a year for Purdue to challenge for the Big Ten Leaders Division, this is it. The Boilermakers have a favorable conference schedule, with only Ohio State, Iowa, Illinois, and Minnesota on the road and not having to play Michigan State or Nebraska. The rest of the Leaders Division faces big questions, while Purdue returns most of its talent both offensively and defensively.

Head coach Danny Hope enters his fourth season in West Lafayette, fresh off the Boilermakers’ first winning season since 2007. That included a bowl win – granted, it was the Little Caesars Pizza Bowl, but it was a bowl win and their first since 2007. He hopes that momentum will carry into this season, and with the amount of starters returning, the depth and experience at quarterback, and one of the best defensive linemen in the Big Ten, it should.

Offense

Three quarterbacks, all of whom have starting experience, will battle it out for the starting job and may see a rotation. Last year’s starter, Caleb TerBush, is the leading candidate but he’ll be pushed by Robert Marve who is returning from his second torn ACL. The third, Rob Henry, will likely see time as a change-of-pace Wildcat QB. The three have a combined 4,068 passing yards for 28 touchdowns and 22 interceptions in addition to 849 rushing yards and seven touchdowns. Not overwhelming by any means, but certainly more experience than many Big Ten teams bring to the table.

Three of last year’s top four receivers return, including Antavian Edison, who averaged 13.3 yards per catch a year ago. The best position group will be running back which returns last year’s top three rushers. The starter should be Ralph Bolden who is returning from his third torn ACL, but Akeem Shavers and Akeem Hunt will get some time as well.

The offensive line has to replace three starters, so if the offense struggles, that will be your culprit. Center Rick Schmeig started two games at right guard last season. Trevor Foy, Kevin Pamphile, and Justin Kitchens will rotate at the tackle positions, though they don’t have much starting experience and have battled injuries. Right guard Peters Drey started all 12 games in 2010 and was named honorable mention All-Big Ten by the media. However, he missed the second half of last season with a back injury. Robert Kugler, the older brother of Michigan recruit Patrick Kugler, may get a chance to factor in as well.

Date	Opponent
Sept. 1	Eastern Kentucky
Sept. 8	@ Notre Dame
Sept. 15	Eastern Michigan
Sept. 29	Marshall
Oct. 6	@ Michigan
Oct. 13	Wisconsin
Oct. 20	@ Ohio State
Oct. 27	@ Minnesota
Nov. 3	Penn State
Nov. 10	@ Iowa
Nov. 17	@ Illinois
Nov. 24	Indiana

Defense

Defensively, the Boilers return eight starters, most notably defensive tackle Kawann Short. The senior has 12.5 career sacks and was All-Big Ten the last two seasons. Defensive end Ryan Russell is a guy Purdue hopes will have a breakout year after starting as a freshman last season. Bruce Gaston also returns on the interior. New defensive coordinator Tim Tibesar, who used to be the defensive coordinator for the Montreal Alouettes of the CFL, will try to install a 3-4 and Short should have a big season.

The big question at linebacker is the status of Dwayne Beckford. The team’s second leading tackler a year ago was suspended for the Little Caesar’s Pizza Bowl but was reinstated in May. He’ll be on a short leash though.

“As long as he does well in school and takes care of business and there aren’t any type of legal repercussions we’ll proceed on,” said head coach Danny Hope.

Will Lucas should another linebacker starter, while Armstead Williams, Joe Gilliam, and Mike Lee will battle for the other spots. Lucas had 10 tackles for loss and two forced fumbles last season.

The secondary will be a strength for the Boilders, led by corners Ricardo Allen and Josh Johnson. Allen was an All-Big Ten second-teamer last season with 81 tackles and three interceptions. Johnson may move to safety, but will be a third-year starter. E.J. Johnson and Max Charlot will likely be the two starters at safety.

Special Teams

The kicking game needs to replace kicker Carson Wiggs. The job will likely fall to true freshman Paul Griggs. Returnman Raheem Mostert led the nation in kick return average (33.5) and is back along with punter Cody Webste who averaged 42.9 yards per punt in 2011.

Outlook

Purdue enters 2012 with momentum coming off a winning record and Hope’s first bowl victory. The combination of returning experience and a favorable schedule make this season an important one for Hope. If the Boilers can avoid the injury bug that has plagued them the past few seasons, eight or nine wins, a finish in the top half of the Legends Division, and a decent bowl game is a realistic possibility.

What it means for Michigan

The Big Ten opener for both teams should favor Michigan since it’s in Ann Arbor. However, Michigan will be coming off an emotional night game at Notre Dame, while Purdue will be coming in after games against Eastern Michigan and Marshall. It has the potential to be a letdown game for Michigan, but Brady Hoke puts great emphasis on winning the Big Ten first and foremost, and losing the first game of the conference schedule would destroy those hopes, so he’ll keep the team motivated.

It was only a week off, but it feels like forever since Michigan last played a game. The sting of defeat still looms on the mind, and if it does for me, I can assure you it’s magnified tenfold for the players and coaches. Fortunately, the bye week is over and Purdue comes to town for Michigan’s homecoming weekend.

#18 Michigan v. Purdue
	Saturday Oct. 29 12 p.m. ET ESPN2
6-1 (2-1)	Record	4-3 (2-1)
Western Michigan 34-10 Notre Dame 35-31 Eastern Michigan 31-3 San Diego State 28-7 Minnesota 58-0 Northwestern 42-24	Wins	Middle Tennessee 27-24 SE Missouri State 59-0 Minnesota 45-17 #23 Illinois 21-14
#23 Michigan State 14-28	Losses	Rice 22-24 Notre Dame 10-38 Penn State 18-23
34.6	Scoring Offense	28.9
232.0	Rushing YPG	195.0
195.9	Passing YPG	192.0
427.9	Total Offense	387.0
14.7	Scoring Defense	20.0
145.3	Rush Defense YPG	145.3
190.7	Pass Defense YPG	206.4
336.0	Total Defense YPG	351.7
19	Takeaways	8
12	Giveaways	8
11/9	Sacks By/Allowed	10/16
42-of-83 (51%)	Third-down Conv.	41-of-102 (40%)
4-for-6 (67.7%)	Field Goals	9-for-14 (64.3%)
33.1	Net Punt Avg.	41.7

Unfortunately, it’s not the Purdue we all expected. The Boilermakers began the season as the Purdue of old, barely surviving Middle Tennessee, losing to Rice, and getting throttled by Notre Dame, but since then has been playing better. Last week, the Boilers upset 23rd-ranked Illinois, and the week before that, went toe-to-toe with Penn State in Happy Valley.

Is Purdue really enough to give Michigan fits on Saturday, or will it be the same old Purdue that Michigan fans usually take for granted? Let’s break down the matchpus.

Quarterbacks:

Caleb TerBush has grabbed firm control of the quarterback position after not really even being a factor heading into the season. Last year’s starter Rob Henry tore his ACL in August and Robert Marve has played sparingly after recovering from his own torn ACL in 2010.

TerBush has completed 61.7 percent of his passes for 1,127 yards (161/game), eight touchdowns and four interceptions. He also averages about eight rushes per game, but just 2.4 yards per carry. He had perhaps his best performance of the season in last week’s win, throwing for 178 yards and a pair of touchdowns.

Denard Robinson struggled two weeks ago against Michigan State, completing just 9-of-24 passes and rushing for just 42 yards on 18 carries, but he’s still the most dangerous player on the field. As I profiled at the beginning of the week, he’s on pace to be one of the greatest quarterbacks in Michigan history and should be able to add to that total this week.

Edge: Michigan

Running Backs:

Ralph Bolden is Purdue’s go-to back with 398 yards on 4.9 yards per carry and three touchdowns. He’s had just one 100-yard rushing game, and ran well against Penn State two weeks ago, but gained just 28 yards on 12 carries last week and has three games with a less than three yards per carry average. Fellow junior Akeem Shavers hasn’t gotten as many carries but has scored five touchdowns.

Michigan’s running game has been uninspiring the past couple of weeks after showing signs of promise at the beginning of the season. Fitz Toussaint seemed to be becoming the every down back, but got just two carries for seven yards against Michigan State, while Vincent Smith got just eight for 37 yards.

It’s going to be interesting to see how Brady Hoke and offensive coordinator Al Borges handle the gameplan this week after abandoning the run game with the running backs against State. Purdue’s rush defense ranks 55th nationally, but shut down a pretty good Illinois rushing attack last week. Penn State, however, got 131 yards out of Silas Redd and Notre Dame got 191 from Cierre Wood and 94 from Jonas Gray.

Edge: Even

Receivers and Tight Ends:

Antavian Edison is the leading receiver for the Boilers, averaging 15.6 yards per catch and two touchdowns. He had a big game against Notre Dame, catching seven passes for 105 yards and a touchdown, but hasn’t done much outside of that.

The other go-to guy is Mr. Do-it-all Justin Siller. The former three-star quarterback moved to running back in 2008, was suspended for 2009, and returned as a wide receiver in 2010 before missing most of the season with an injury. He was actually Purdue’s starting quarterback in last year’s matchup with Michigan, but hurt his foot on the first play of the game. This season, he has 28 receptions for 284 yards and a touchdown.

For Michigan, receiver production can only go as far as Denard goes. Junior Hemingway is the obvious leader with 17 receptions for 397 yards and a touchdown. Though not a speedster, he’s a deep threat who has made his living on jump balls with big games against Notre Dame and Northwestern. Jeremy Gallon emerged as the second guy and leads the team in receptions with 18. Roy Roundtree and tight end Kevin Koger also have double-digit receptions and a pair of touchdowns each.

Michigan has the better stable of receivers, but how the offense is run will determine the kind of production they have.

Edge: Michigan

Offensive Line:

Purdue has allowed 16 sacks, which ranks 80th nationally, but the offensive line has seemingly fixed the problems it was having at the beginning of the season. Against Middle Tennessee and Rice to open the season, the Boilers allowed eight sacks. In the last five games, it has given up eight combined, including just one to Illinois’ very good pass rush last week.

In addition, the line has paved the way for the nation’s 26th-ranked rush offense. The Boilers have a good left tackle in Dennis Kelly and a solid and experienced guard in Peters Drey, an honorable mention All-Big Ten performer last season.

Michigan’s offensive line has struggled against more physical defensive lines the past few seasons and that was no different against Michigan State two weeks ago. After allowing just two sacks through the first six games, it allowed seven against the Spartans, and managed just 82 yards rushing.

Edge: Purdue

Defensive Line:

Purdue’s defensive line hasn’t been quite as good after losing First-Team All-American Ryan Kerrigan to the Washington Redskins, but it’s not a bad unit by any stretch. The Boilers have recorded 10 sacks, which ranks 93rd nationally, and allow 145 yards rushing per game, the same as Michigan allows. Tackle Kawann Short leads the team in sacks with 3.5 and tackles-for-loss with 9.5. He’s a guy who shifted to the end position against Penn State but is more of a run stopper than a pass rusher.

Michigan’s line has struggled to pressure the quarterback against good offensive lines, recording no sacks against Notre Dame and Michigan State. Bigger offensive lines tend to neutralize Mike Martin, Ryan Van Bergen, and Craig Roh simply because of a lack of size. Personnel wise, Michigan’s and Purdue’s lines are probably pretty even, but the Wolverines will have trouble getting to TerBush and getting much push against Purdue’s bigger offensive line.

Edge: Purdue

Linebackers:

Dwayne Beckford and Joe Holland are two fairly talented linebackers for the Boilers and are the team’s leading tacklers. The pair combined for 22 tackles against Illinois last week and helped keep Illini quarterback Nathan Scheelhaase in check.

Michigan’s linebackers haven’t progressed as much as expected throughout the season. Kenny Demens and Brandin Hawthorne have been slow to react and freshman Jake Ryan continues to struggle containing the edge.

Edge: Purdue

Defensive Backs:

Corner Ricardo Allen is just a sophomore but he already has six career interceptions for the Boilers, including one last week. The other, Josh Johnson is bigger and more physical, but neither was able to stop Notre Dame’s Michael Floyd in Week 4. But then again, who can? Purdue is allowing 206 passing yards per game, which is a respectable 36th nationally.

Michigan’s secondary has been much better than the past couple of seasons. Freshman Blake Countess has basically taken Troy Woolfolk’s spot due to nagging injuries and has fared well. Safety Jordan Kovacs is the leader while fellow safety Thomas Gordon has a knack for making big plays. Michigan gives up just 192 yards through the air.

Edge: Push

Special Teams:

Purdue has the nation’s fourth-best net punt average. Sophomore punter Cody Webster averages 46.6 yards per punt. Kicker Carson Wiggs has hit 9-of-14 field goals with a long of 53. The Boilers also have the nation’s 15th-best kick return game, giving the offense good starting field position.

Michigan’s punting has been pretty poor, with a net average of 33.1, which is near the bottom nationally. Some of that is attributed to a series of field position punts in the Michigan State game. Kicker Brendon Gibbons has hit 4-of-6 field goals with a long of just 38.

Edge: Purdue

Coaching:

Purdue Head Coach Danny Hope is 1-1 against Michigan since taking over for Joe Tiller. In 2009, he took advantage of Michigan’s decline and captured Purdue’s first win in Ann Arbor in 43 years. Last year, Purdue kept it close in an ugly game. He seems to be a good fit at a school like Purdue where he’s going to get the most out of the talent he has and keep them playing hard.

Brady Hoke suffered his first loss at Michigan two weeks ago, effectively ending his honeymoon. Now he can get down to coaching and staying out of the spotlight. For all the praise we gave Al Borges through the first six games, his gameplan was subpar at best against MSU. I’m wiling to bet he gets back to running the football against Purdue. Greg Mattison has Michigan’s defense ranked eighth nationally in points allowed and 36th in total defense. Those are dramatic improvements from the past few years.

Edge: Michigan

Intangibles:

Saturday will be homecoming in Ann Arbor but unfortunately Mother Nature thinks she went to Michigan. The current forecast calls for temperatures in the mid-40s with a rain or snow shower, meaning the game could come down to which team can run the ball the best.

Michigan lost to Purdue last time the Boilers visited Ann Arbor and you can be sure that Hoke has declared that unacceptable. It’s a must-win for Michigan if it wants any shot of climbing back into the Big Ten race. A home game in poor weather conditions should favor Michigan.

Edge: Michigan

This game does scare me a little bit. Purdue is playing well and looked good against Illinois last week. The Boilers run an offense somewhat similar to Northwestern and try to control the tempo early with some no-huddle. That worked for Northwestern in the first half against Michigan. It’s a shotgun spread offense with lots of zone read and receiver screens that could keep Michigan’s defense on its heels for the first half or so. Hope likes to mix around running backs and receivers and use Justin Siller in the Wildcat every now and then.

However, depending on what the weather brings, that could be neutralized a bit, either forcing Purdue into a more conservative rushing attack or causing turnovers.

The Purdue defense did a great job of stopping Illinois’ powerful offense last week. The Illini are about as similar to Michigan as any team in the Big Ten, so that doesn’t bode well. But Denard Robinson is better than Scheelhaase and Michigan will look to establish a rushing game early.

I look for Purdue to hang around for a half and into the third quarter before Mattison adjusts to stop the Boiler offense and Michigan wins a closer than wanted game.

Prediction: Michigan 33 – Purdue 24

Good to Know:

Michigan leads the all-time series 42-14, including 20-5 in the last 25 meetings. However, Purdue has won two of the last three

Michigan is 83-27 all-time in homecoming games

Michigan has forced as many turnovers (19) in the first seven games as it did all season in 2010. The Wolverines rank first in the Big Ten and eighth nationally in turnovers forced

Michigan has outscored opponents 121-42 in the second half this season and 200-61 from the second quarter on

Record Watch:

With one passing touchdown, Denard Robinson will pass Jim Harbaugh (1983-86) for sole possession of 9th on Michigan’s career list. With two, he will tie Brian Griese (1994-97) for 8th With 274 passing yards, Denard will pass Rick Leach (1975-78) for 9th in career passing yards. With 373, he can pass Brian Griese (1994-97) for 8th With 86 rushing yards, Denard will pass Gordon Bell (1973-75) for 9th on Michigan’s career rushing list With one rushing touchdown, Denard will move into a tie with Butch Woolfolk (1978-81) for 9th in career rushing touchdowns. With two, he will reach Tom Harmon (1938-40) and Billy Taylor (1969-71) for 7th With 66 receiving yards, Junior Hemingway could move into the top 20 in career receiving yards, passing Ralph Clayton (1976-79), John Kolesar (1985-88), and Adrian Arrington (2004-07)

As the 130th season of Michigan football comes to an end, it’s time to reflect on what we saw and look forward to next year and beyond.

2009 yielded some highlights and some lowlights, some controversy and some challenged loyalty. A legend was made and some buds blossomed. Records fell, both good and bad, and a system started to show some promise.

No one knew what to expect from this year’s version of Michigan football in Rich Rodriguez’s second year at the helm.

The overly optimistic among us predicted a breakout season of nine or ten wins.

Realistic optimists pointed to Rodriguez’s penchant for second-year turnarounds and predicted a record of 7-5 or maybe, if luck goes the way of the maize and blue, 8-4.

Realists pointed to the true freshmen quarterbacks and lack of overall talent on the squad and predicted a 5-7 or 6-6 finish.

As it turns out, the realists were right, but the realistic optimists weren’t too far off.

The fact of the matter is, Michigan fans were so shell-shocked from the worst record in 46 years in 2008 that we were looking anywhere we could for hope.

We ignored comments that Rodriguez made in the preseason such as, “There’s still going to be some transition. We’re going to play a lot more freshmen and redshirt freshmen than we would like to.”

We thought, sure there will be a lot of freshmen playing, but Tate Forcier and Denard Robinson are surely better options than Steven Threet and Nick Sheridan. Or, yeah, but it can’t get any worse than last season.

In this space, I offered some words of caution: “Coming off a season that resulted in the most losses in school history, and pinning all hopes on a true freshman quarterback, this seems to be the window of opportunity before Rodriguez’s system begins to take hold and terrorize the Big Ten.”

But then I followed it up with an overly ambitious response: “However, I think we’re going to see a very fast, well-conditioned and much-improved Michigan team playing with a chip on its shoulder to avoid being put to rest again.”

While that may have held true for a while, reality eventually sunk in that this team was indeed loaded with youth and razor-thin on the depth chart.

What began in August as optimism and eagerness to forget the epic disaster of 2008, quickly turned to scorn as the Detroit Free Press brought into question allegations of NCAA infractions on the part of Rodriguez and his coaching staff.

The opening game against Western Michigan couldn’t come soon enough. We cursed Michael Rosenberg and Mark Snyder for the timing of their article and the witch-hunt that ensued and we promised to get revenge on Justin Boren, who transferred to Ohio State, for his comments that seemed to be the centerpiece of that article.

And then the season began and practice time was forgotten and the story of Shoelace became one we would hear every game the entire season (as my wife would roll her eyes every time the announcers felt compelled to tell the story of why Denard Robinson doesn’t tie his shoes…every…single…game).

Robinson thrilled us with a 43-yard touchdown run, Tate Forcier showed promise in his first game by throwing for three touchdowns, Junior Hemingway caught nearly half his season total in receiving yards (103) and all of his touchdowns (two), and the defense shut down what many thought would be a high-powered offense.

We saw a show of solidarity for Rodriguez, Michigan won easily, and the season started off with a bang.

The came Notre Dame, fresh off of throttling Nevada, and riding preseason BCS bowl (or national championship game) predictions.

This will go down as the game that raised all of our expectations, mostly because no one knew at that time how mediocre Notre Dame really was.

It appeared to be Rodriguez’s signature win, as Michigan matched Notre Dame score-for-score and Forcier stunned the 18th-ranked Irish with 11 seconds left.

Forcier looked as veteran and composed as ND junior quarterback Jimmy Clausen, completing 23-of-33 for 240 yards and three touchdowns (one rushing). It’s hard to imagine that that would be the high point of his season, in just his second collegiate game.

Of course, there was the Armando Allen out-of-bounds play, which, despite the evidence , Notre Dame fans will carry to their graves in contempt.

The win over Notre Dame vaulted Michigan into the Top 25 heading into week three against Eastern Michigan. Former Michigan defensive coordinator Ron English brought his Eagles to Ann Arbor and didn’t provide much of a test.

Michigan showed off its running game this time, going for 380 yards on the ground, and getting 163 yards and two touchdowns on just eight carries from Carlos Brown in the first half alone.

Robinson scored two more touchdowns to enhance the unrealistic expectations for a guy that arrived on campus less than two months earlier.

Michigan then opened the Big Ten slate with Indiana in what would eventually be the battle for last place. At the time, though, Michigan was hoping to get to 4-0 heading into its intrastate rivalry battle in East Lansing.

This game provided our first glimpse of what the rest of the season would hold, as Michigan struggled to beat the Hoosiers, needing a 26-yard touchdown pass from Forcier to Martavious Odoms with 2:29 remaining to get the win.

The Indiana victory prompted me to draw a comparison to the New York Jets, who like Michigan, started off hot with a rookie quarterback: “Following Sunday’s Jets-Titans game, Vic Carucci of NFL.com asked Jets safety Kerry Rhodes if he thought the Jets’ style of play was sustainable. Rhodes replied that he thought it was because having such a good defense allows rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez to make some mistakes.

“Unfortunately, that won’t exactly translate to Michigan. While I think Michigan’s offense is further along in its development than Sanchez’s Jets offense, relatively speaking, Michigan hasn’t faced its toughest opponents yet.”

I provided the last part of that quote because I knew we were in for a tough go the rest of the season. I didn’t know, however, that that would be our last win over a FBS team all season. Ironically, Michigan’s fall has mirrored the Jets’ collapse.

At 4-0, a return to a bowl game looked assured, and Michigan entered “Little Brother” week seeking to avenge last season’s 35-21 loss to Michigan State.

It was the first road game of Forcier’s career and we saw the fist true test of the season, as the Michigan offense was shut down much of the game. But Forcier continued his early-season magic, leading a 14-point comeback to force overtime with a touchdown completion to Roy Roundtree with just two seconds left.

In overtime, Forcier was intercepted on a tipped pass that never should have been thrown, and Michigan dropped its second in a row to Michigan State for the first time since 1967.

Michigan Streaks Broken in 2009
First back-to-back losses to Michigan State since 1967
First home loss to Penn State since 1996
First home loss to Purdue in last 17 meetings
First back-to-back losing seasons since 1963-62

This began a run of snapping streaks right and left.

With its first loss of the season under its belt, Michigan traveled to Iowa for a prime-time night game against the nation’s 12th-ranked Hawkeyes.

Brandon Minor had his breakout game of the season, scoring two touchdowns against a defense that hadn’t given up a rushing touchdown in 33 quarters.

The game started out as well as one could ask, as Donovan Warren picked off the first pass of the game and returned it for a touchdown.

Michigan hung around until a muffed punt (hello 2008!) gave Iowa the ball at the Michigan 16. Iowa punched it in and took a 30-21 lead.

Robinson led the offense down the field for a touchdown to narrow the gap, but on the next possession, threw an interception to end the game, beginning the Wolverine-faithful’s love-hate relationship with Denard.

Despite a second-straight loss, Michigan fans were encouraged that the team was able to hang with undefeated Iowa until the last minute of the game, and a return to the Big House to face an FCS school was just what Michigan needed to regroup.

Michigan was able to set numerous school records in the win over Delaware State that week and give many starters a week off.

Five Wolverines scored their first career touchdowns and Robinson was able to get a lot of work at quarterback.

Michigan fans even got the treat of seeing Nick Sheridan on the field without the game on the line.

Many fans didn’t like the idea of playing an FCS school, but following the game, I proclaimed, “I have no problem with Michigan playing Delaware State this year. With a roster comprised of mostly underclassmen, and a complete overhaul in progress, playing an FCS opponent was better than a bye week in my opinion.

Michigan Records Set vs. Delaware State
727 total yards of offense
442 yards in the first half
28 points in the first quarter (ties record)
57 point margin of victory (most since 58-0 win over Indiana on Oct. 14, 2000)
461 rushing yards (most since 480 vs. Iowa on Oct. 3, 1992)
49 first half points (most since 55 vs. Chicago on Oct. 21, 1939)

“I would love to see Michigan start scheduling another tough out-of-conference game every year, but at this point in the development of Rich Rodriguez’s scheme, it’s not time for that just yet.

“Once the team grows up and the spread-n-shred is fully ingrained, I hope the schedule will be strengthened. But when you have Florida, arguably the nation’s top team and reigning national champion, playing Charleston Southern, Troy and Florida International, one must look that way first before pointing fingers at the baby Wolverines.”

I still believe it was okay to play Delaware State this season, but obviously with the way Michigan finished the season the benefits weren’t as great as I thought.

At 5-2, Michigan looked primed to make a bowl game, needing just one more win in its final five games.

Penn State came to town and dominated Michigan, racking up 396 yards of offense, and handing Michigan its first true beating of the season.

For really the first time all season, Forcier looked like a true freshman, completing just 13-of-30 passes for 140 yards. The offense couldn’t get anything going in the cold, rainy conditions.

Michigan wasn’t expected to win this one, and despite the 25-point whooping, I considered this result somewhat of a fluke and still didn’t believe the team was as bad as the final record would eventually indicate.

Following the Penn State game, doomsday headlines abounded, and I cautioned fans not to listen to them.

As it turns out, they were right.

Michigan traveled to Champaign, Ill. for a match-up with 1-6 Illinois, a game that looked like a sure-win.

This one will forever be remembered as the epic collapse, and probably the turning point of the whole season. I don’t think I’ve ever seen a bigger turnaround before.

Michigan was firmly in control with a 13-7 lead and first and goal at the Illinois one-yard line in the third quarter. After stuffing Michigan on four straight rushes, Illinois took possession and seized the game.

Six plays later, a 70-yard touchdown run put Illinois ahead 14-13 and Illinois never looked back, out-scoring Michigan 24-0 the rest of the way.

At this point in the season, confidence in a bowl game turned into hoping to squeeze out a win in one of the final three games. The best hope was the following week against Purdue.

Perhaps hope is the wrong word against Purdue, as Boilermaker head coach Danny Hope carried a grudge into the game, blaming Rodriguez for getting one of his players suspended for a game earlier in the season – nevermind that the player deserved to be suspended just as much as Michigan linebacker Jonas Mouton did the week before that.

This game was much like the Illinois game, where Michigan was in control and let it get away. Michigan led 24-10 at halftime and pushed it to 30-17 in the third, but a 91-yard touchdown drive, an on-side kick, and a 54-yard touchdown pass later, and Michigan found itself trailing 31-30.

Michigan missed a 43-yard field goal and failed to convert a two-point conversion attempt that would have tied the game, and Michigan fell by two.

Michigan traveled to Wisconsin for its final road game of the season, still needing a win to become bowl-eligible.

This game followed the mold of the past couple, as Michigan hung around through three quarters, but faded down the stretch.

Forcier bounced back from some poor outings to complete 20-of-26 passes for 188 yards and two touchdowns, but it was the defense that couldn’t hold up against a powerful Wisconsin running game.

Although Michigan knew Wisconsin was going to run it in the second half, it still couldn’t stop the Badgers.

The bowl hopes all came down to the final week of the season against Ohio State, as Michigan looked to end its five game losing streak to the Buckeyes.

Though many around the nation talked of the lack of luster in the rivalry, the game still had plenty of storylines with Michigan needing a win to make a bowl and avoid a second straight losing season, Ohio State needing a win to capture the Big Ten title outright, and Justin Boren playing against his former team in the Big House.

The Michigan defense played inspired and turned in its best performance of the season, holding the Ohio State offense to just 14 points.

However, it was the youth of Michigan’s offensive leader that doomed the Wolverines’ chances of playing through the holidays.

Forcier turned the ball over five times, including a fumble in the end zone on Michigan’s first possession, which Ohio State recovered for a touchdown.

Michigan moved the ball most of the day against an Ohio State defense that ranks as one of the best in the nation. But it was unable to capitalize on trips to the red zone, turning the ball over too many times.

So as Michigan’s season came to an abrupt end for the second year in a row, many want to know where do we go from here?

Indeed, there are many questions that need to be answered, but I’m in the minority who still believes the program is on the right track.

Stay tuned for part two where I will look at the future of the football program, both short-term and long-term, as well as the recruiting class Michigan has coming in and who is still out there that Rodriguez needs to land.