It was only a week off, but it feels like forever since Michigan last played a game. The sting of defeat still looms on the mind, and if it does for me, I can assure you it’s magnified tenfold for the players and coaches. Fortunately, the bye week is over and Purdue comes to town for Michigan’s homecoming weekend.

#18 Michigan v. Purdue
	Saturday Oct. 29 12 p.m. ET ESPN2
6-1 (2-1)	Record	4-3 (2-1)
Western Michigan 34-10 Notre Dame 35-31 Eastern Michigan 31-3 San Diego State 28-7 Minnesota 58-0 Northwestern 42-24	Wins	Middle Tennessee 27-24 SE Missouri State 59-0 Minnesota 45-17 #23 Illinois 21-14
#23 Michigan State 14-28	Losses	Rice 22-24 Notre Dame 10-38 Penn State 18-23
34.6	Scoring Offense	28.9
232.0	Rushing YPG	195.0
195.9	Passing YPG	192.0
427.9	Total Offense	387.0
14.7	Scoring Defense	20.0
145.3	Rush Defense YPG	145.3
190.7	Pass Defense YPG	206.4
336.0	Total Defense YPG	351.7
19	Takeaways	8
12	Giveaways	8
11/9	Sacks By/Allowed	10/16
42-of-83 (51%)	Third-down Conv.	41-of-102 (40%)
4-for-6 (67.7%)	Field Goals	9-for-14 (64.3%)
33.1	Net Punt Avg.	41.7

Unfortunately, it’s not the Purdue we all expected. The Boilermakers began the season as the Purdue of old, barely surviving Middle Tennessee, losing to Rice, and getting throttled by Notre Dame, but since then has been playing better. Last week, the Boilers upset 23rd-ranked Illinois, and the week before that, went toe-to-toe with Penn State in Happy Valley.

Is Purdue really enough to give Michigan fits on Saturday, or will it be the same old Purdue that Michigan fans usually take for granted? Let’s break down the matchpus.

Quarterbacks:

Caleb TerBush has grabbed firm control of the quarterback position after not really even being a factor heading into the season. Last year’s starter Rob Henry tore his ACL in August and Robert Marve has played sparingly after recovering from his own torn ACL in 2010.

TerBush has completed 61.7 percent of his passes for 1,127 yards (161/game), eight touchdowns and four interceptions. He also averages about eight rushes per game, but just 2.4 yards per carry. He had perhaps his best performance of the season in last week’s win, throwing for 178 yards and a pair of touchdowns.

Denard Robinson struggled two weeks ago against Michigan State, completing just 9-of-24 passes and rushing for just 42 yards on 18 carries, but he’s still the most dangerous player on the field. As I profiled at the beginning of the week, he’s on pace to be one of the greatest quarterbacks in Michigan history and should be able to add to that total this week.

Edge: Michigan

Running Backs:

Ralph Bolden is Purdue’s go-to back with 398 yards on 4.9 yards per carry and three touchdowns. He’s had just one 100-yard rushing game, and ran well against Penn State two weeks ago, but gained just 28 yards on 12 carries last week and has three games with a less than three yards per carry average. Fellow junior Akeem Shavers hasn’t gotten as many carries but has scored five touchdowns.

Michigan’s running game has been uninspiring the past couple of weeks after showing signs of promise at the beginning of the season. Fitz Toussaint seemed to be becoming the every down back, but got just two carries for seven yards against Michigan State, while Vincent Smith got just eight for 37 yards.

It’s going to be interesting to see how Brady Hoke and offensive coordinator Al Borges handle the gameplan this week after abandoning the run game with the running backs against State. Purdue’s rush defense ranks 55th nationally, but shut down a pretty good Illinois rushing attack last week. Penn State, however, got 131 yards out of Silas Redd and Notre Dame got 191 from Cierre Wood and 94 from Jonas Gray.

Edge: Even

Receivers and Tight Ends:

Antavian Edison is the leading receiver for the Boilers, averaging 15.6 yards per catch and two touchdowns. He had a big game against Notre Dame, catching seven passes for 105 yards and a touchdown, but hasn’t done much outside of that.

The other go-to guy is Mr. Do-it-all Justin Siller. The former three-star quarterback moved to running back in 2008, was suspended for 2009, and returned as a wide receiver in 2010 before missing most of the season with an injury. He was actually Purdue’s starting quarterback in last year’s matchup with Michigan, but hurt his foot on the first play of the game. This season, he has 28 receptions for 284 yards and a touchdown.

For Michigan, receiver production can only go as far as Denard goes. Junior Hemingway is the obvious leader with 17 receptions for 397 yards and a touchdown. Though not a speedster, he’s a deep threat who has made his living on jump balls with big games against Notre Dame and Northwestern. Jeremy Gallon emerged as the second guy and leads the team in receptions with 18. Roy Roundtree and tight end Kevin Koger also have double-digit receptions and a pair of touchdowns each.

Michigan has the better stable of receivers, but how the offense is run will determine the kind of production they have.

Edge: Michigan

Offensive Line:

Purdue has allowed 16 sacks, which ranks 80th nationally, but the offensive line has seemingly fixed the problems it was having at the beginning of the season. Against Middle Tennessee and Rice to open the season, the Boilers allowed eight sacks. In the last five games, it has given up eight combined, including just one to Illinois’ very good pass rush last week.

In addition, the line has paved the way for the nation’s 26th-ranked rush offense. The Boilers have a good left tackle in Dennis Kelly and a solid and experienced guard in Peters Drey, an honorable mention All-Big Ten performer last season.

Michigan’s offensive line has struggled against more physical defensive lines the past few seasons and that was no different against Michigan State two weeks ago. After allowing just two sacks through the first six games, it allowed seven against the Spartans, and managed just 82 yards rushing.

Edge: Purdue

Defensive Line:

Purdue’s defensive line hasn’t been quite as good after losing First-Team All-American Ryan Kerrigan to the Washington Redskins, but it’s not a bad unit by any stretch. The Boilers have recorded 10 sacks, which ranks 93rd nationally, and allow 145 yards rushing per game, the same as Michigan allows. Tackle Kawann Short leads the team in sacks with 3.5 and tackles-for-loss with 9.5. He’s a guy who shifted to the end position against Penn State but is more of a run stopper than a pass rusher.

Michigan’s line has struggled to pressure the quarterback against good offensive lines, recording no sacks against Notre Dame and Michigan State. Bigger offensive lines tend to neutralize Mike Martin, Ryan Van Bergen, and Craig Roh simply because of a lack of size. Personnel wise, Michigan’s and Purdue’s lines are probably pretty even, but the Wolverines will have trouble getting to TerBush and getting much push against Purdue’s bigger offensive line.

Edge: Purdue

Linebackers:

Dwayne Beckford and Joe Holland are two fairly talented linebackers for the Boilers and are the team’s leading tacklers. The pair combined for 22 tackles against Illinois last week and helped keep Illini quarterback Nathan Scheelhaase in check.

Michigan’s linebackers haven’t progressed as much as expected throughout the season. Kenny Demens and Brandin Hawthorne have been slow to react and freshman Jake Ryan continues to struggle containing the edge.

Edge: Purdue

Defensive Backs:

Corner Ricardo Allen is just a sophomore but he already has six career interceptions for the Boilers, including one last week. The other, Josh Johnson is bigger and more physical, but neither was able to stop Notre Dame’s Michael Floyd in Week 4. But then again, who can? Purdue is allowing 206 passing yards per game, which is a respectable 36th nationally.

Michigan’s secondary has been much better than the past couple of seasons. Freshman Blake Countess has basically taken Troy Woolfolk’s spot due to nagging injuries and has fared well. Safety Jordan Kovacs is the leader while fellow safety Thomas Gordon has a knack for making big plays. Michigan gives up just 192 yards through the air.

Edge: Push

Special Teams:

Purdue has the nation’s fourth-best net punt average. Sophomore punter Cody Webster averages 46.6 yards per punt. Kicker Carson Wiggs has hit 9-of-14 field goals with a long of 53. The Boilers also have the nation’s 15th-best kick return game, giving the offense good starting field position.

Michigan’s punting has been pretty poor, with a net average of 33.1, which is near the bottom nationally. Some of that is attributed to a series of field position punts in the Michigan State game. Kicker Brendon Gibbons has hit 4-of-6 field goals with a long of just 38.

Edge: Purdue

Coaching:

Purdue Head Coach Danny Hope is 1-1 against Michigan since taking over for Joe Tiller. In 2009, he took advantage of Michigan’s decline and captured Purdue’s first win in Ann Arbor in 43 years. Last year, Purdue kept it close in an ugly game. He seems to be a good fit at a school like Purdue where he’s going to get the most out of the talent he has and keep them playing hard.

Brady Hoke suffered his first loss at Michigan two weeks ago, effectively ending his honeymoon. Now he can get down to coaching and staying out of the spotlight. For all the praise we gave Al Borges through the first six games, his gameplan was subpar at best against MSU. I’m wiling to bet he gets back to running the football against Purdue. Greg Mattison has Michigan’s defense ranked eighth nationally in points allowed and 36th in total defense. Those are dramatic improvements from the past few years.

Edge: Michigan

Intangibles:

Saturday will be homecoming in Ann Arbor but unfortunately Mother Nature thinks she went to Michigan. The current forecast calls for temperatures in the mid-40s with a rain or snow shower, meaning the game could come down to which team can run the ball the best.

Michigan lost to Purdue last time the Boilers visited Ann Arbor and you can be sure that Hoke has declared that unacceptable. It’s a must-win for Michigan if it wants any shot of climbing back into the Big Ten race. A home game in poor weather conditions should favor Michigan.

Edge: Michigan

This game does scare me a little bit. Purdue is playing well and looked good against Illinois last week. The Boilers run an offense somewhat similar to Northwestern and try to control the tempo early with some no-huddle. That worked for Northwestern in the first half against Michigan. It’s a shotgun spread offense with lots of zone read and receiver screens that could keep Michigan’s defense on its heels for the first half or so. Hope likes to mix around running backs and receivers and use Justin Siller in the Wildcat every now and then.

However, depending on what the weather brings, that could be neutralized a bit, either forcing Purdue into a more conservative rushing attack or causing turnovers.

The Purdue defense did a great job of stopping Illinois’ powerful offense last week. The Illini are about as similar to Michigan as any team in the Big Ten, so that doesn’t bode well. But Denard Robinson is better than Scheelhaase and Michigan will look to establish a rushing game early.

I look for Purdue to hang around for a half and into the third quarter before Mattison adjusts to stop the Boiler offense and Michigan wins a closer than wanted game.

Prediction: Michigan 33 – Purdue 24

Good to Know:

Michigan leads the all-time series 42-14, including 20-5 in the last 25 meetings. However, Purdue has won two of the last three

Michigan is 83-27 all-time in homecoming games

Michigan has forced as many turnovers (19) in the first seven games as it did all season in 2010. The Wolverines rank first in the Big Ten and eighth nationally in turnovers forced

Michigan has outscored opponents 121-42 in the second half this season and 200-61 from the second quarter on

Record Watch:

With one passing touchdown, Denard Robinson will pass Jim Harbaugh (1983-86) for sole possession of 9th on Michigan’s career list. With two, he will tie Brian Griese (1994-97) for 8th With 274 passing yards, Denard will pass Rick Leach (1975-78) for 9th in career passing yards. With 373, he can pass Brian Griese (1994-97) for 8th With 86 rushing yards, Denard will pass Gordon Bell (1973-75) for 9th on Michigan’s career rushing list With one rushing touchdown, Denard will move into a tie with Butch Woolfolk (1978-81) for 9th in career rushing touchdowns. With two, he will reach Tom Harmon (1938-40) and Billy Taylor (1969-71) for 7th With 66 receiving yards, Junior Hemingway could move into the top 20 in career receiving yards, passing Ralph Clayton (1976-79), John Kolesar (1985-88), and Adrian Arrington (2004-07)

As the 130th season of Michigan football comes to an end, it’s time to reflect on what we saw and look forward to next year and beyond.

2009 yielded some highlights and some lowlights, some controversy and some challenged loyalty. A legend was made and some buds blossomed. Records fell, both good and bad, and a system started to show some promise.

No one knew what to expect from this year’s version of Michigan football in Rich Rodriguez’s second year at the helm.

The overly optimistic among us predicted a breakout season of nine or ten wins.

Realistic optimists pointed to Rodriguez’s penchant for second-year turnarounds and predicted a record of 7-5 or maybe, if luck goes the way of the maize and blue, 8-4.

Realists pointed to the true freshmen quarterbacks and lack of overall talent on the squad and predicted a 5-7 or 6-6 finish.

As it turns out, the realists were right, but the realistic optimists weren’t too far off.

The fact of the matter is, Michigan fans were so shell-shocked from the worst record in 46 years in 2008 that we were looking anywhere we could for hope.

We ignored comments that Rodriguez made in the preseason such as, “There’s still going to be some transition. We’re going to play a lot more freshmen and redshirt freshmen than we would like to.”

We thought, sure there will be a lot of freshmen playing, but Tate Forcier and Denard Robinson are surely better options than Steven Threet and Nick Sheridan. Or, yeah, but it can’t get any worse than last season.

In this space, I offered some words of caution: “Coming off a season that resulted in the most losses in school history, and pinning all hopes on a true freshman quarterback, this seems to be the window of opportunity before Rodriguez’s system begins to take hold and terrorize the Big Ten.”

But then I followed it up with an overly ambitious response: “However, I think we’re going to see a very fast, well-conditioned and much-improved Michigan team playing with a chip on its shoulder to avoid being put to rest again.”

While that may have held true for a while, reality eventually sunk in that this team was indeed loaded with youth and razor-thin on the depth chart.

What began in August as optimism and eagerness to forget the epic disaster of 2008, quickly turned to scorn as the Detroit Free Press brought into question allegations of NCAA infractions on the part of Rodriguez and his coaching staff.

The opening game against Western Michigan couldn’t come soon enough. We cursed Michael Rosenberg and Mark Snyder for the timing of their article and the witch-hunt that ensued and we promised to get revenge on Justin Boren, who transferred to Ohio State, for his comments that seemed to be the centerpiece of that article.

And then the season began and practice time was forgotten and the story of Shoelace became one we would hear every game the entire season (as my wife would roll her eyes every time the announcers felt compelled to tell the story of why Denard Robinson doesn’t tie his shoes…every…single…game).

Robinson thrilled us with a 43-yard touchdown run, Tate Forcier showed promise in his first game by throwing for three touchdowns, Junior Hemingway caught nearly half his season total in receiving yards (103) and all of his touchdowns (two), and the defense shut down what many thought would be a high-powered offense.

We saw a show of solidarity for Rodriguez, Michigan won easily, and the season started off with a bang.

The came Notre Dame, fresh off of throttling Nevada, and riding preseason BCS bowl (or national championship game) predictions.

This will go down as the game that raised all of our expectations, mostly because no one knew at that time how mediocre Notre Dame really was.

It appeared to be Rodriguez’s signature win, as Michigan matched Notre Dame score-for-score and Forcier stunned the 18th-ranked Irish with 11 seconds left.

Forcier looked as veteran and composed as ND junior quarterback Jimmy Clausen, completing 23-of-33 for 240 yards and three touchdowns (one rushing). It’s hard to imagine that that would be the high point of his season, in just his second collegiate game.

Of course, there was the Armando Allen out-of-bounds play, which, despite the evidence , Notre Dame fans will carry to their graves in contempt.

The win over Notre Dame vaulted Michigan into the Top 25 heading into week three against Eastern Michigan. Former Michigan defensive coordinator Ron English brought his Eagles to Ann Arbor and didn’t provide much of a test.

Michigan showed off its running game this time, going for 380 yards on the ground, and getting 163 yards and two touchdowns on just eight carries from Carlos Brown in the first half alone.

Robinson scored two more touchdowns to enhance the unrealistic expectations for a guy that arrived on campus less than two months earlier.

Michigan then opened the Big Ten slate with Indiana in what would eventually be the battle for last place. At the time, though, Michigan was hoping to get to 4-0 heading into its intrastate rivalry battle in East Lansing.

This game provided our first glimpse of what the rest of the season would hold, as Michigan struggled to beat the Hoosiers, needing a 26-yard touchdown pass from Forcier to Martavious Odoms with 2:29 remaining to get the win.

The Indiana victory prompted me to draw a comparison to the New York Jets, who like Michigan, started off hot with a rookie quarterback: “Following Sunday’s Jets-Titans game, Vic Carucci of NFL.com asked Jets safety Kerry Rhodes if he thought the Jets’ style of play was sustainable. Rhodes replied that he thought it was because having such a good defense allows rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez to make some mistakes.

“Unfortunately, that won’t exactly translate to Michigan. While I think Michigan’s offense is further along in its development than Sanchez’s Jets offense, relatively speaking, Michigan hasn’t faced its toughest opponents yet.”

I provided the last part of that quote because I knew we were in for a tough go the rest of the season. I didn’t know, however, that that would be our last win over a FBS team all season. Ironically, Michigan’s fall has mirrored the Jets’ collapse.

At 4-0, a return to a bowl game looked assured, and Michigan entered “Little Brother” week seeking to avenge last season’s 35-21 loss to Michigan State.

It was the first road game of Forcier’s career and we saw the fist true test of the season, as the Michigan offense was shut down much of the game. But Forcier continued his early-season magic, leading a 14-point comeback to force overtime with a touchdown completion to Roy Roundtree with just two seconds left.

In overtime, Forcier was intercepted on a tipped pass that never should have been thrown, and Michigan dropped its second in a row to Michigan State for the first time since 1967.

Michigan Streaks Broken in 2009
First back-to-back losses to Michigan State since 1967
First home loss to Penn State since 1996
First home loss to Purdue in last 17 meetings
First back-to-back losing seasons since 1963-62

This began a run of snapping streaks right and left.

With its first loss of the season under its belt, Michigan traveled to Iowa for a prime-time night game against the nation’s 12th-ranked Hawkeyes.

Brandon Minor had his breakout game of the season, scoring two touchdowns against a defense that hadn’t given up a rushing touchdown in 33 quarters.

The game started out as well as one could ask, as Donovan Warren picked off the first pass of the game and returned it for a touchdown.

Michigan hung around until a muffed punt (hello 2008!) gave Iowa the ball at the Michigan 16. Iowa punched it in and took a 30-21 lead.

Robinson led the offense down the field for a touchdown to narrow the gap, but on the next possession, threw an interception to end the game, beginning the Wolverine-faithful’s love-hate relationship with Denard.

Despite a second-straight loss, Michigan fans were encouraged that the team was able to hang with undefeated Iowa until the last minute of the game, and a return to the Big House to face an FCS school was just what Michigan needed to regroup.

Michigan was able to set numerous school records in the win over Delaware State that week and give many starters a week off.

Five Wolverines scored their first career touchdowns and Robinson was able to get a lot of work at quarterback.

Michigan fans even got the treat of seeing Nick Sheridan on the field without the game on the line.

Many fans didn’t like the idea of playing an FCS school, but following the game, I proclaimed, “I have no problem with Michigan playing Delaware State this year. With a roster comprised of mostly underclassmen, and a complete overhaul in progress, playing an FCS opponent was better than a bye week in my opinion.

Michigan Records Set vs. Delaware State
727 total yards of offense
442 yards in the first half
28 points in the first quarter (ties record)
57 point margin of victory (most since 58-0 win over Indiana on Oct. 14, 2000)
461 rushing yards (most since 480 vs. Iowa on Oct. 3, 1992)
49 first half points (most since 55 vs. Chicago on Oct. 21, 1939)

“I would love to see Michigan start scheduling another tough out-of-conference game every year, but at this point in the development of Rich Rodriguez’s scheme, it’s not time for that just yet.

“Once the team grows up and the spread-n-shred is fully ingrained, I hope the schedule will be strengthened. But when you have Florida, arguably the nation’s top team and reigning national champion, playing Charleston Southern, Troy and Florida International, one must look that way first before pointing fingers at the baby Wolverines.”

I still believe it was okay to play Delaware State this season, but obviously with the way Michigan finished the season the benefits weren’t as great as I thought.

At 5-2, Michigan looked primed to make a bowl game, needing just one more win in its final five games.

Penn State came to town and dominated Michigan, racking up 396 yards of offense, and handing Michigan its first true beating of the season.

For really the first time all season, Forcier looked like a true freshman, completing just 13-of-30 passes for 140 yards. The offense couldn’t get anything going in the cold, rainy conditions.

Michigan wasn’t expected to win this one, and despite the 25-point whooping, I considered this result somewhat of a fluke and still didn’t believe the team was as bad as the final record would eventually indicate.

Following the Penn State game, doomsday headlines abounded, and I cautioned fans not to listen to them.

As it turns out, they were right.

Michigan traveled to Champaign, Ill. for a match-up with 1-6 Illinois, a game that looked like a sure-win.

This one will forever be remembered as the epic collapse, and probably the turning point of the whole season. I don’t think I’ve ever seen a bigger turnaround before.

Michigan was firmly in control with a 13-7 lead and first and goal at the Illinois one-yard line in the third quarter. After stuffing Michigan on four straight rushes, Illinois took possession and seized the game.

Six plays later, a 70-yard touchdown run put Illinois ahead 14-13 and Illinois never looked back, out-scoring Michigan 24-0 the rest of the way.

At this point in the season, confidence in a bowl game turned into hoping to squeeze out a win in one of the final three games. The best hope was the following week against Purdue.

Perhaps hope is the wrong word against Purdue, as Boilermaker head coach Danny Hope carried a grudge into the game, blaming Rodriguez for getting one of his players suspended for a game earlier in the season – nevermind that the player deserved to be suspended just as much as Michigan linebacker Jonas Mouton did the week before that.

This game was much like the Illinois game, where Michigan was in control and let it get away. Michigan led 24-10 at halftime and pushed it to 30-17 in the third, but a 91-yard touchdown drive, an on-side kick, and a 54-yard touchdown pass later, and Michigan found itself trailing 31-30.

Michigan missed a 43-yard field goal and failed to convert a two-point conversion attempt that would have tied the game, and Michigan fell by two.

Michigan traveled to Wisconsin for its final road game of the season, still needing a win to become bowl-eligible.

This game followed the mold of the past couple, as Michigan hung around through three quarters, but faded down the stretch.

Forcier bounced back from some poor outings to complete 20-of-26 passes for 188 yards and two touchdowns, but it was the defense that couldn’t hold up against a powerful Wisconsin running game.

Although Michigan knew Wisconsin was going to run it in the second half, it still couldn’t stop the Badgers.

The bowl hopes all came down to the final week of the season against Ohio State, as Michigan looked to end its five game losing streak to the Buckeyes.

Though many around the nation talked of the lack of luster in the rivalry, the game still had plenty of storylines with Michigan needing a win to make a bowl and avoid a second straight losing season, Ohio State needing a win to capture the Big Ten title outright, and Justin Boren playing against his former team in the Big House.

The Michigan defense played inspired and turned in its best performance of the season, holding the Ohio State offense to just 14 points.

However, it was the youth of Michigan’s offensive leader that doomed the Wolverines’ chances of playing through the holidays.

Forcier turned the ball over five times, including a fumble in the end zone on Michigan’s first possession, which Ohio State recovered for a touchdown.

Michigan moved the ball most of the day against an Ohio State defense that ranks as one of the best in the nation. But it was unable to capitalize on trips to the red zone, turning the ball over too many times.

So as Michigan’s season came to an abrupt end for the second year in a row, many want to know where do we go from here?

Indeed, there are many questions that need to be answered, but I’m in the minority who still believes the program is on the right track.

Stay tuned for part two where I will look at the future of the football program, both short-term and long-term, as well as the recruiting class Michigan has coming in and who is still out there that Rodriguez needs to land.