I still remember the day, August 24, 2010, like it was yesterday. It was a beautiful, if otherwise nondescript, Tuesday afternoon in the late summer of Ann Arbor. Students were trickling back to campus just a couple weeks before the first home football game of the season and I found myself living the life, chilling with some friends on Greenwood Street, back to my home away from home a few days early for some work training before the start of my junior year.

Two nights before, my parents had dropped me off at my buddy’s college house and were immediately taken aback by the pungent smell of old, cheap beer emanating from the front porch and the silver keg sitting about two feet in front of the entranceway to the messy house. Surprisingly, they trusted Nick enough to leave me there and turned back around to Grand Rapids, probably praying like heck I would make it through the next two days and into the school year.

For whatever reason, Monday was unmemorable, a day full of sitting around watching and listening to training presentations and then relaxing back on Greenwood. Tuesday was supposed to be the same sort of day – a few hours of training followed by watching TV and walking the streets of Ann Arbor on the most picturesque of days.

Taylor, the friend who would go on to live with me a year later and who was also back in town for our training, and I decided to rent a couple movies to help pass the time. One of the films was about serious air guitar competitions, a recommendation from the tall, bald, mustachioed man working the desk at the Askwith Media Library. The other, Grizzly Man, had been on my must-watch list for a while.

We got back to our temporary college house and were sitting on the couch chatting before we would pop in one of the flicks when Nick walked down the steps. I think he was holding a laptop, but I’m not absolutely certain. All I remember is what he said.

“Trey Burke committed.”

He said it with a slight air of excitement, but not much more. Taylor chimed in to ask who Burke was, and Nick and I, being avid college basketball fans and followers of the Michigan team, did our best to fill him in.

We knew who Burke was, a Columbus, Ohio native and former teammate of Jared Sullinger, but didn’t have a ton to go off of. There was a little bit of video and a few scouting reports that added up to suggest that Burke was a fringe top 100-150ish point guard that wasn’t great at anything but was above average at most things. He had decommitted from Penn State a few months earlier and had just received a Michigan offer to add to a mostly unimpressive list of other offers, among them Cincinnati, Butler, Iowa, and Nebraska.

We read through all the material we could find, including message board comments that were mostly positive, but not overly optimistic. Many posted some form of a quick welcome to Trey Burke, but few predicted grand success in the future, just excitement that basketball season was around the corner. Others said he looked more like a mid-major player than a guy competing in the Big Ten. Carlton Brundidge was still going to be the key to the 2011 class; the common perception was that Burke would be a good facilitator, a good player.

Our talk lasted all of about five or 10 minutes before we moved on to our next musings. Little did we know then that I would be writing this article two and a half years later.

The 2010-11 Michigan basketball season was a great bounce-back year for the Michigan basketball program after the 2009-10 squad had failed massively to live up to expectations, finishing the year at 15-17 and missing every postseason tournament after being ranked 15 in the preseason polls.

That season was highlighted by the emergence of Darius Morris, a 6’4″ scoring point guard out of Los Angeles who was John Beilein’s first major signee at Michigan. As a freshman, Morris was relegated to a backup role, but his fantastic sophomore season helped lead the Wolverines back to the NCAA Tournament, where they pounded Tennessee before narrowly missing out on the Sweet Sixteen on a missed floater by Morris.

That floater would be the last shot Morris ever took in a Michigan uniform. After two seasons, he decided it was time to pursue his dream of playing professionally and entered the NBA Draft, where he was selected in the second round. I wrote a story then too, calling on Michigan fans to support Morris in his decision, and asking how anyone could question a college-aged kid in his quest to play the game he loves full-time while bringing in hundreds of thousands of dollars a year – at a minimum.

In the back of my mind, I wondered how Michigan would fare without their clear-cut best player, their floor general, starting in the fall. Yes, Zack Novak and Stu Douglass would provide veteran leadership and shot-making, and Tim Hardaway, Jr. had all the makings of a Big Ten superstar, but there no longer was a point guard to bring them all together and make the magic happen. I just didn’t want to think about it.

With Morris leaving, there was suddenly a lot more minutes available. Many, including me, speculated that Douglass would be forced to play out of position for at least 20 minutes a game while Burke and Brundidge would battle it out for the other 20 minutes. In my mind, a freshman, especially one as small as Burke, simply could not lead a team for extended periods of time in the Big Ten.

The summer came and went with my brother Justin and I frequently arguing about who would be the best freshman in the class. I still believed Brundidge was the newcomer to watch once the fall rolled around again. He maintained that Burke was worlds ahead of him, pointing to the ridiculous “Journey to Ann Arbor” workout videos that Burke had posted to YouTube. I didn’t listen.

That fall I was just as excited as always for Michigan basketball to come, but I was as unsure as ever about the merits of the team. I knew Beilein was a great coach, and I knew Michigan had some very good players, but the point guard position was becoming so important in the offense, and I kept questioning. Ultimately I guessed that I’d once again sweat it out on a nightly basis as the team sat on the bubble all year long.

A couple weeks before the season started, the buzz over this Burke player started to pick up. My friend Andrew posed as his sportswriter-uncle’s intern to get into a private Michigan practice and came out blown away by number 3. I still remember one Monday night after a Maize Rage meeting walking with Andrew, listening to his thoughts on the team a week before I would be able to view an open practice myself.

He started off that walk by telling me that Burke was the real deal.

“He will be the best player on this team by the end of the season,” he said.

I almost laughed out loud as we passed the Union. The best player on the team? Certainly he had to be joking. I told him I just hoped Burke earned some playing time at the point guard spot – that would at the very least be a good sign for the future. He insisted I was way off, that Burke would start before I knew it. We then walked our separate ways, I with some hope, some dream, but still some doubt.

From there, we know the story.

Burke went on to take the college basketball world by storm his freshman season, leading the team to a Big Ten championship and playing with the swagger and confidence of a man far older than 19 as classmate Carlton Brundidge struggled to earn minutes.

Once I finally got to see Burke play in a couple real college games, I had no reason to doubt any longer. Early on, I knew he was going to be a special player, and he ended up exceeding even those expectations.

By the midway point of Trey’s freshman season, I started to take him for granted. Sure, he missed plenty of shots, and no, he didn’t always make the right pass, but damn near all of the time Burke was the best player on the floor. I developed a sense of calm within games that I had never experienced before. I knew Trey Burke was on Michigan’s side, and I was at peace.

The Wolverines still lost games that season, 10 to be exact, and not everything ended up Michigan’s way, but it was a terrific winter to watch.

Sadly, that season ended with a disappointing and disheartening loss in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament. Despite earning a 4-seed, Michigan was upended by the Ohio Bobcats.

Novak and Douglass’s storied careers had come to an end, and my time as a Michigan student was winding down as well, but I looked ahead to the next season with renewed vigor, knowing the team would be in Burke’s protecting hands.

Then the news came like a blow to the stomach. Word got out that Burke was considering an early exit to the NBA, and there were rumblings around campus that he had stopped attending class, leaving most to conclude that his time at Michigan was indeed over. A few days later, reports that firmly confirmed these conclusions came out – Burke had decided to forego his college career after just one year at Michigan.  Pictures of his packed-up dorm room emerged on Twitter.

I thought back to the article I wrote one year earlier about Morris’s decision to go pro and ran through every reason I gave as to why he couldn’t be blamed, eventually realizing that Burke was in the same boat. How could anyone question a teenager deciding to pursue his dreams and loads of money that most of us couldn’t even imagine making? Sure, another terrific year in college might boost his draft stock, but was the risk of injury worth it?

No one knew for sure. Michigan fans just hoped against hope it wasn’t true.

A couple more days passed with no announcement of Burke’s intentions, and a glimmer of that hope shone brightly in the sky. More stories started to come out explaining that Burke was reconsidering his decision, but still no one was certain.

Then came the announcement. On April 9, 2012, Burke single-handedly blew the clouds out of Ann Arbor by announcing that he would return for his sophomore year at Michigan. Within minutes of the declaration, most surmised that, barring a catastrophe, the 2012-13 season would serve as a swan song of sorts for the baby-faced sophomore. He would give it a go one more time in Ann Arbor in the hopes of winning a championship and improving his draft stock.

That summer passed very slowly for Michigan fans around the world as Beilein assembled his best-ever recruiting class to enter into the equation with Burke and Hardaway already in the fold. Prognosticators slotted Michigan in the top five of polls in the preseason, higher than in nearly 20 years, and Burke was viewed as an All-American.

With Burke leading the way one last time, the Wolverines gave fans a ride for the ages, opening the season with 16 straight wins to climb to number one in the country. There were some bumps in the road that followed, however, and doubts crept up.

When the Big Dance rolled around this time, the sentiments weren’t so high. Michigan had limped to a 6-6 record over the final 12 games preceding the NCAA Tournament, and another 4-seed seemed to be an unfair omen for Michigan fans looking for one last joy ride.

As always, though, Burke answered the call. For the most part he wasn’t spectacular in Michigan’s run to the Final Four, but when it mattered most, he was there. He was there to shut down Nate Wolters in Michigan’s opening round victory over South Dakota State, and he was there to wreak havoc on VCU’s overly-aggressive defense despite a lack of gaudy numbers that first weekend.

Burke was there with 23 magical second-half points in the Wolverines’ fairy tale comeback over Kansas and he was there in Michigan’s blowout of Florida.

He was also there in Michigan’s victory over Syracuse, their first Final Four win in two decades. Perhaps most memorably, however, Burke was there against Louisville in the national championship that wasn’t meant to be.

It was an unfitting end to such a brilliant college career, a game that saw Burke marred with two questionable foul calls, including one on an incredible block of Peyton Siva that could have changed the outcome of the game. Burke fought to the end in that game as he always did, however, scoring 24 points and putting the team on his back despite a couple noticeably painful hard fouls that he took himself.

In the end, for whatever reason, it wasn’t meant to be. Burke brought home all the individual awards one can earn, but I know he is the kind of player that would have given them all back to win that last game.

That was always part of the beauty of Trey Burke’s game. He always gave it his all for the team, whether Michigan was trailing by four late or winning by 20 in the first half, and he thought every shot was going in. Sure, he missed more than half the shots he took in his college career, but I was fine with any shot Trey deemed suitable. He made me a believer in the bad shot, the long two, the off-balance layup, the pick-pocket, and the 10-foot-behind-the-line three.

He also made me a believer in the clutch factor.

Before I knew Trey Burke, I was on the side of the statisticians and mathematicians that adamantly proclaim that there is no such thing as being clutch in sports, that ultimately a player will make the same percent of his shots at any given time if there are enough trials.

To them, I say watch Trey Burke.

Watch the Ohio State home games of this season and last, when Burke made three game-saving plays in all. Watch the Michigan State game of this year, when Burke snatched the ball right from Keith Appling’s backside to ensure that Michigan would not fall apart down the stretch. Watch the Purdue game in West Lafayette, when Burke led a one-man comeback with three after three and floater after floater to keep Michigan’s season from going down the drain. Watch the Kansas game in the Sweet Sixteen, when Burke willed his team to overtime and eventually victory with The Shot, truly believing his team would win despite some computer programs giving Michigan less than a one percent chance of doing so.

To you, Trey Burke, I have a confession to make. I doubted you. Before I saw what you could do with my own eyes, I didn’t believe in you. I was skeptical that a 6’0″, 175-pound kid from Columbus, a kid that didn’t even get looked at by the Big Ten team right down the street, could carry a team for two seasons.

No one told me to write this story, but I felt that I owed it to you.

It’s players like you that make the game of basketball special and the University of Michigan special. Players that play the right way, and do so with such grace and smoothness rarely on display these days.

I never once thought you would be the savior of Michigan basketball, but now there is no doubt in my mind.

Sooner rather than later, I know we will see your ‘3’ hanging in the rafters of Crisler, adorned with “BURKE” across the top in huge letters next to the past greats of Michigan basketball, and across the way from the “2012-13 NCAA Runner-Up,” “2013 Final Four,” and “2011-12 Big Ten Champion” banners.

Until then, I wish you the best of luck on your journey to the NBA. When college basketball season rolls around again this fall, I will be excited as always, but there will be a small hole in my heart that is made a just a little bit bigger by your departure, after Novak, Douglass, Morris, Manny Harris, and so many others have moved on before. I will miss watching you play, seeing you so effortlessly lead Michigan to victory while wearing the Maize and Blue, but thank you for giving me that reason.

Thank you for making me a believer in not only you, but in the game of basketball. I always knew it was a beautiful game, but I was never certain it could be played as beautifully as you did these past two years.

Thank you for always helping me remember these past two years, and that day two summers ago that I will never forget.

Thank you for those banners, and for bringing Michigan back to where it belongs.

Thank you, Trey, for everything.

Early November is always the weirdest time of the year sports-wise as baseball comes to an end, football is in full-swing, and basketball is just beginning. Every year, it’s hard to switch gears and think about basketball when Michigan football is in the thick of the Big Ten title hunt, but this year feels different. There’s a lot of excitement swirling around the Michigan basketball program right now, and for good measure.

Last year’s team fell just two points short of an upset of Duke and a berth in the Sweet 16. Everybody except point guard Darius Morris returns and this year’s team features a highly-touted freshman point guard to replace him, along with a veteran unit. Add to all of that last week’s commitment from the nation’s second-rated player in the class of 2012, and coach John Beilein is building himself quite the program in Ann Arbor.

The 2009 season was supposed to be a big one for the Wolverines and I optimistically predicted 21-9. But Michigan stumbled to a 15-17 record, missing the NCAA tournament. Last year, Michigan had to replace Manny Harris and prospects looked bleak, at least as far as I was concerned. I took the pessimistic approach, predicting 15-16, but the Maize and Blue proved me wrong, turning a 1-6 conference start into a 9-9 Big Ten finish and a near-Sweet 16 run.

With everybody but Morris returning, Michigan figures to be right in the thick of a powerful Big Ten race. The Wolverines enter the season ranked 18th in the Preseason AP poll and predicted to finish in the top three or four in the conference. Let’s take a look at the team, the schedule, and the outlook.

________________________________________________________________________________________

The Team:

There’s no question that the offense will revolve around Tim Hardaway Jr. The sophomore from Miami, Fla. – and yes, if you didn’t follow Michigan basketball last season, he’s the son of the NBA great – is the leading returning scorer, averaging 13.9 points per game last season (Morris led the team with 15). He started every game, was Michigan’s second-best free throw shooter, shot 37 percent from 3-point land, and led the Wolverines in scoring in Big Ten play, averaging 14.9 points per game.

In the offseason, Hardaway played for Team USA at the 2011 FIBA U19 World Championships. While he didn’t start, he averaged 9.4 points, 2.1 rebounds, and 1.8 assists per game, and sharpened his game against the world’s best at his age.

While Hardaway is Michigan’s best player, the unquestioned leader of the team is senior guard Zack Novak. The 6’4″ 210-pound lefty from Chesterton, Ind. has started 88 of 100 career games and ranks fifth in Michigan history in three-pointers made and attempted. Last season, Novak averaged 8.9 points per game and led Michigan in rebounding with 5.8 rebounds per game.

He’s been a model of consistency and hard work since arriving in Beilein’s first full recruiting class. He’s always the first to chase down a loose ball, to dive head first, to scrap for every rebound, and to take on the opponent’s best guard.

His classmate Stu Douglass is a 6’3″ 200-pound sharp-shooter, also from Indiana. While he mostly lost his starting spot last year (12 starts after starting 23 games in each of his freshman and sophomore seasons), he served as Michigan’s captain, averaged 7.1 points and three rebounds per game, while playing 30 minutes a game. He’ll play a key role for the Wolverines this season in both leadership and outside shooting. He’ll likely share the point guard responsibilities with freshman Trey Burke.

Speaking of Burke, he’ll fill the void Morris left as Michigan’s ball-handler. He’s a confident, 5’11″ 180-pound point guard from Columbus, Ohio. He played with Ohio State star Jared Sullinger, and for Sullinger’s dad, at Northland High School, leading the Vikings to a state runner-up finish last season. He was named the Associated Press Ohio Mr. Basketball and was a Parade Magazine All-America second-team selection.

Another backcourt contributor is junior Matt Vogrich. He played in all but one game last season, averaging 3.2 points per game, while shooting 39 percent from three-point range. In Michigan’s opening round NCAA Tournament win over Tennessee, Vogrich hit 5-of-5 shots from the field, scoring 11 points in 16 minutes. Though not a starter, he’ll continue to give Michigan a spark off the bench with his shooting prowess.

In the frontcourt, Evan Smotrycz is a bit of a ‘tweener and figures to play a key role for the Wolverines this season He’s 6’9″ and 235 pounds, and averaged 6.3 points and 2.3 rebounds per game last season as a freshman. In Michigan’s ACC/Big Ten Challenge win over Clemson last season, Smotrycz led the Wolverines with 18 points on 6-of-7 shooting.

What he did best was stretch the floor for Michigan’s post players. He was a tough matchup, with athleticism to go to the basket, but 38 percent accuracy from three-point range. His weakness, however, was on the defensive side of the ball. That will need to improve this season.

Jordan Morgan is the main man on the post. The 6’8″ redshirt sophomore is up to 250 pounds, 10 heavier than he was a year ago. It should help him with defending some of the Big Ten’s big men in the grueling conference play. Last year, he was the team’s most improved player, averaging 9.2 points and 5.4 rebounds per contest. His best game was a 27-point performance against Northwestern, and he led the Big Ten in field goal percentage. Along with Novak and Hardaway, he started all 35 games.

The Newcomers
Trey Burke	Carlton Brundidge	Max Bielfeldt	Sai Tummala
3	2	34	24
G	G	F	F
6’1″	6’2″	6’8″	6’7″
175 lbs.	200 lbs.	240 lbs.	200 lbs.
Columbus, Ohio	Southfield, Mich.	Peoria, Ill.	Phoenix, Ariz.
Northland H.S.	Southfield H.S.	Notre Dame Prep	Brophy College Prep

Helping him out down low is sophomore Jon Horford. He averaged just two points and two rebounds a game last season, but has beefed up from 220 to 250 pounds since then, which like Morgan, will help him in the rough and rugged Big Ten. He played in 29 of the 35 games a year ago, averaging just under seven minutes per game, but should see his role vastly increase this season. In Michigan’s exhibition win over Wayne State last Friday, he was one of just four Wolverines to score, netting six points in 17 minutes of action, although he missed all five free throws attempted.

Blake McLimans struggled with his shot last year, hitting just 1-of-19 three-point attempts. The 6’10″ junior forward from Hamburg, N.Y. played five minutes a game and was supposed to be a big man that could shoot. Unfortunately, they didn’t fall. How much his stroke has improved this season could determine how much his role increases.

One candidate to take some of his minutes is freshman Max Bielfeldt. A bit undersized at 6’7″ and 240 pounds, the freshman from Peoria, Ill. is a bruiser. He averaged 20 points and 11.2 rebounds a game in his career at Notre Dame Prep and was named to the AP Class 3A All-State first team.

Colton Christian is an interesting big man for the Wolverines. As a freshman last year, he played in 27 of the 35 games, averaging just under five minutes a game, but scored just four points. His specialty was rebounding and was often brought in just for that purpose. If he can improve his offensive production, he will likely see his role increase.

Another freshman and candidate for a bit of playing time here and there is Carlton Brundidge. A 6’1″ 190-pound guard from Southfield, Mich., Brundidge figures to add a slasher to Michigan’s backcourt. He averaged 20.9 points, 6.6 rebounds, and 4.8 assists at Southfield High School and was named to the AP Class A All-State first team last season. How much he will see the court this season is up in the air – he played just two minutes last Friday – but he should be a solid contributor as his career progresses.

________________________________________________________________________________________

The Schedule:

Michigan begins with three cakewalks to shake off the rust that was evident in last week’s exhibition. Ferris State was the Great Lakes Intercollegiate Athletic Conference regular season champion a year ago, but that’s Div. II. Towson and Western Illinois combined to go 11-49.

After those three, things get interesting. On Nov. 21, Michigan travels to Hawaii to participate in the EA Sports Maui Invitational. The first game is against #9 Memphis, which went 25-9 last season. Depending on the result, the next game would pit Michigan against one of the two teams it faced in last springs NCAA Tournament – Duke or Tennessee. Duke is ranked 6th in the preseason polls, while Tennessee looks to have dropped off considerably from the Bruce Pearl years.

The third game of the Maui could be anywhere from Kansas or UCLA (ranked 13th and 17th nationally, respectively) to Chaminade, depending on how Michigan fares in the first two.

Games to Watch
Date	Team	Rank	Location	Time	TV
Mon. Nov. 21	Memphis	9	Lahaina, Hawaii	3 p.m.	ESPN2
Tues. Nov. 22	Duke or Tennessee	6/NR	Lahaina, Hawaii	TBD	ESPN2
Tues. Nov. 29	Virginia		Charlottesville, Va.	7 p.m.	ESPN2
Sat. Jan. 8	Wisconsin	14	Ann Arbor, Mich.	TBA	CBS
Tue. Jan. 17	Michigan State		Ann Arbor, Mich.	7 p.m.	ESPN
Sun. Jan. 29	Ohio State	3	Columbus, Ohio	1 p.m.	CBS
Sun. Feb. 5	Michigan State		East Lansing, Mich.	1 p.m.	CBS
Sat. Feb. 18	Ohio State	3	Ann Arbor, Mich.	9 p.m.	ESPN

After returning back to the mainland, Michigan has to travel to Charlottesville, Va. to battle the Virginia Cavaliers in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge. Virginia was 16-15 a year ago, but returns nearly everybody and is picked to finish in the top third of the ACC.

Following that gauntlet, Michigan gets a bit of a breather before beginning Big Ten play, with four of the remaining five out-of-conference games at home, and the fifth – against Oakland – at the Palace at Auburn Hills. Oakland and Iowa State won’t be pushovers, but are should-wins. Arkansas Pine-Bluff, Alabama A&M, and Bradley should help improve Michigan’s record.

Big Ten play begins with two home games, against Penn State and Minnesota, then a road trip to Indiana before returning home for the first big test against #14 Wisconsin.

After doing battle with Northwestern and Iowa, Michigan returns home on Jan. 17 to face Michigan State, which it swept last season, and then travels out of conference to face Arkansas. The Razorbacks finished 18-13 a year ago, but have a lot of holes to fill this season.

Michigan returns to Big Ten play for what should be the key stretch of the conference slate. A home battle with Indiana is sandwiched between road trips to Purdue, #3 Ohio State, Michigan State, and Nebraska. How Michigan fares during that five-game stretch could determine its post-season fate, but it doesn’t get any easier from there. Illinois comes to town and then the Buckeyes come calling.

At this point, Michigan will either be jockeying for a Big Ten title or fighting for its life on the NCAA Tournament bubble. The last four games should help, as Michigan visits Northwestern, returns home for Purdue, and then travels to Illinois and Penn State to close the season.

________________________________________________________________________________________

The Outlook:

While not the toughest schedule in the nation, it’s certainly not an easy one either. The Big Ten is never an easy conference to play in, and with the Maui Invitational, the ACC/Big Ten Challenge, and the mid-conference trip to Fayetteville, Michigan hasn’t done itself any favors with the schedule. If the Wolverines take care of business, that will be an advantage come tournament time. If not, it could come back to bite them.

Even with a pair of experienced seniors – Novak and Douglass – Michigan is still a fairly young team. That shouldn’t make much of a difference, however, since the experience Michigan has fits together nicely. Hardaway shouldn’t have much trouble getting his points and assuming the playmaker role he took on during Big Ten play last year.

Morgan and Horford down low should be more of a presence than a year ago, which should help open up Novak, Douglass, and Vogrich from the outside.

It really falls on the shoulders of freshman point guard Burke. He will undoubtedly struggle at times, but how he goes should go Michigan. If he’s able to take care of the ball, distribute effectively, and play solid defense, all of which he is certainly capable of, Michigan should be a Big Ten title contendor. But that’s a lot to ask of a true freshman.

Michigan will need Novak and Douglass’ shots to fall and one of the two big men to become consistent offensive weapons.

The Wolverines should hold serve at home with a revamped and reenergized Maize Rage student section, as well as an updated Crisler Arena, so don’t expect many home losses.

Look for a 10-3 non-conference record with a loss in the Maui, a loss to Virginia, and a surprising let-down loss to either Oakland or Arkansas. I also predict a 12-6 Big Ten record with splits against Ohio State, Michigan State, Indiana, and Purdue, a loss to Wisconsin, and one upset at the hands of Northwestern, Iowa, or Minnesota.

That would put Michigan’s final regular season record at 22-9 (12-6) and near the top of the Big Ten, but squarely in the NCAA Tournament with a couple of wins in the Big Ten Tournament. As always, the disclaimer applies that I hope I’m wrong and the Wolverines do much better, but with Morris still at the helm, I would be a lot more confident.

As the body language of Tim Hardaway, Jr. reflects, this season was defined by over-achievement and heartache, but THJr. and the young Wolverines will be a force to be reckoned with next season

In a season that began with very low expectations, the 2010-11 Michigan basketball team turned in perhaps the program’s best season in over a decade and set the stage for what should be enormous expectations in 2011-12.

Picked by most to finish at or near the bottom of the Big Ten, Michigan fought to a fourth place finish, earned an eight-seed in the NCAA Tournament, and took first-seeded Duke to the wire in the third round. It was a season defined by over-achievement and missed opportunities.

When last season’s stars, Manny Harris and DeShawn Sims, bolted for the NBA and graduation, many wondered how Michigan would compete. Instead, rising stars emerged in sophomore Darius Morris and freshman Tim Hardaway, while the veterans, Zack Novak and Stu Douglass remained dependable.

The youngest team in the Big Ten, and tenth youngest in Div. 1A, paved the way for future success with solid team play and feisty defense. After starting the season 11-3, Michigan went on a six-game slide to fall to 1-6 in the Big Ten. It looked as if even an NIT bid was wishful thinking at that point. But the resilient Wolverines, with not a single senior on the team, went 8-3 the rest of the way, sweeping rival Michigan State for the first time since 1997, earning a fourth place finish in the conference and a four-seed in the Big Ten Tournament.

Still needing a win or two to cement an invitation to the Big Dance, Michigan came from behind to beat Illinois in the Big Ten Tourney opener and then fell to Ohio State in the semifinals. It was enough to earn an eight seed and a matchup with Tennessee.

In that first game, Michigan played perhaps its best game of the season, throttling the Volunteers by 30, the most lopsided win in the history of the 8/9 seed matchup, and setting up a showdown with first-seeded Duke.

Against Duke, Michigan fell behind early in the second half and fought back, erasing a 12 point deficit with just over six minutes to play, but Morris missed an eight-foot runner at the buzzer. It ended Michigan’s season two points shy of the Sweet 16.

Close Losses to Ranked Teams
Opponent	Points
No. 9 Syracuse	3
No. 3 Kansas	7 (OT)
No. 2 Ohio State	4
No. 1 Ohio State	9
No. 12 Wisconsin	1
No. 1 Ohio State	7
No. 3 Duke	2

After over 10 years without an NCAA Tournament berth, John Beilein has guided Michigan to first round wins in two of the past three seasons. Both years, Michigan proved that while overmatched, it could compete with the big boys, and that was certainly the story of the season.

Michigan lost to then-No. 9 Syracuse by three, No. 3 Kansas in overtime, No. 1 Ohio State by four, nine, and seven, No. 12 Wisconsin by one on a buzzer-beater, and No. 3 Duke by two. While close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades, it bodes well for next season, as Michigan returns everyone and will likely be one of the preseason favorites in a Big Ten that was very senior-heavy this season. Experience and leadership usual make the difference in close games, and Michigan will have that in 2011-12.

Incoming freshmen Trey Burke and Carlton Brundidge, both top 100 guards, should help provide more scoring and athleticism on the perimeter and the young big men, Jordan Morgan, Jon Horford, and Blake McLimans, will continue to develop.

It’s been a long time since we could say a Michigan team (football or basketball) has actually overachieved, but even in the face of disappointment from a loss to Duke, it feels good to be looking forward to next season with great anticipation.

A wish list for next season:

Jordan Morgan realizes he is, in fact, allowed to rebound and go up strong with the ball. He made great strides throughout the season and was most dangerous in transition, but played much smaller than he actually is. Way too many times, he got the ball on the post and brought it down with a dribble instead of taking it up strong. He has a good baby hook, but at times, he was too reliant on it. And way too many times, he failed to block out and rebound, especially on the offensive glass. Another offseason should help.

Evan Smotrycz improves his defense. I’m not hating on Smotz, since he was a true freshman after all. He showed some flashes of offense and shooting stroke, making him hard to guard for an opposing big man, but was often a liability on defense. It was especially apparent against Duke when he would jump out to close out, but remain so vertical that he either fouled or was beaten off the dribble. Like Morgan, offseason work, and just more experience in college ball, will help.

Darius Morris develops a shooting stroke. Morris was probably Michigan’s best player this season, leading the Big Ten in assists, and leading the team in scoring with 15 points per game. He’s at his best when driving through the lane, either for a runner or kicking it out to a shooter. However, every time he got an open look from the outside, Michigan fans cringed. He shot just 25 percent (16-of-64) from long range. In this offense, he’s not going to be called upon to shoot from the outside very often, but when he does get the occasional open look, I’d like him to at least be able to hit one of three.

Stu Douglass re-learns how to make free throws. Over the past three seasons, Douglass has hit his share of big threes. He shot 36 percent this season, but he consistently struggled with the easiest shot in basketball. He didn’t get there often, but made just three of 13 on the season and the misses always seemed to be at critical times. He missed the front end of a one-and-one against Duke that could have made the difference in the two-point loss. The strange thing is he wasn’t always this bad. In his first two seasons, he hit 40-of-55 (73 percent). Here’s to regaining that stroke next season.

Share this post
Tweet

In a season that was supposed to be a battle just to make the NIT, Michigan basketball has performed well above expectations, having played itself to the cusp of an at-large bid for the NCAA Tournament. One game stands in the way of that goal and it couldn’t write itself any better than this.

In football, the season ends with the annual battle with Ohio State. More times than not (although not as of late), it comes down to that game to decide the Big Ten champion, which team goes to the Rose Bowl, or at the very least, which team gets the better bowl game.

But in basketball, Michigan State serves as Michigan’s biggest rival and the past decade and a half has been pretty one-sided. Saturday presents an opportunity to change all that; an opportunity few thought possible five months ago.

Both teams enter Crisler Arena in need of a win to finish in the top half of the Big Ten standings, earn a first round bye in next week’s Big Ten Tournament, and put itself in prime position for an at-large bid in the NCAA.

For Michigan, the past decade and a half has been filled with strife and heartache since the Ed Martin scandal rocked the program in the late 1990s. The once proud and strong program that produced the Fab 5 and won the National Championship in 1989 has been through three coaches and just two tournament appearances since Steve Fisher was fired in ’97 (one since 1998).

A Tale of Two Programs
	Since 1997
244-202	Record	348-130
54.7	Winning %	72.8
6	Head to Head Wins	18
10	Avg. Winning Margin	17
0	Big Ten Titles	6
2	NCAA Tournaments	14
0	Final Fours	6
0	National Championships	1
*Includes this season’s previous meeting

Coincidentally, that was also the last time Michigan swept Michigan State and the point in which the Spartans began their rise to become the prominent team in the state.

Since then, MSU has been to the NCAA Tournament every season, reached the Final Four six times, and won the championship in 2000, while Michigan’s lone appearance was two seasons ago.

On Saturday, Michigan has a chance to not only sweep its hated rival for the first time since ’97, but possibly keep the Spartans out of the Big Dance for the first time since that year and take a big step towards reclaiming the state.

Head Coach John Beilein has seemingly resurrected the program that showed signs of potential during the Tommy Amaker years, but never realized that potential. Beilein came in with a different coaching and recruiting mentality – one based on recruiting high character kids that fit his system – and has Michigan playing well above its head and talent level.

He’s always managed to get the best out of his players, and with a team chalk full of underclassmen and no seniors, Beilein finally has an emerging star at point guard and a coveted number two scorer in the duo of Darius Morris and Tim Hardaway Jr. He also has a pair of Top-100 players coming in next season in Carlton Brundidge and Trey Burke, so the program is on its way up.

But the first step in that process is beating Michigan State tomorrow. In the season’s first meeting, Michigan outlasted the Spartans in East Lansing, 61-57. Zack Novak led the way with 19 points, while Morris had 17, but it was Stu Douglass who was the biggest hero, hitting with a three-pointer with 22 seconds left to seal the win. Michigan hit 10 threes in the game, shot 50 percent from the field, tied the Spartans in rebounds and committed one more turnover (13) than MSU.

A win would most likely give Michigan the fifth seed in the Big Ten Tournament and a second round matchup with Illinois, which hosts last-place Indiana on Saturday. Most importantly, a win would put Michigan at 19-12, 9-9 in the Big Ten (tied for fourth) and almost assure the Wolverines an at-large bid in the Big Dance. A loss would probably pit Michigan against Iowa in the first round of the BTT and Michigan would have to win that one and one or two more to even have a shot.

It has been a long time since Michigan basketball has had a game this meaningful, and tomorrow’s game will certainly have Crisler rocking. Following Michigan State’s win over Iowa on Wednesday, Head Coach Tom Izzo declared, “We’re gonna find a way to win Saturday and get you back to where you belong: in the NCAA Tournament.” It’s not much of a guarantee, but the Maize Out on Saturday will act as if he guaranteed he would never lose to Michigan again, and make him eat his words.

As for me, I’m going to find a way to keep my wife, who is nine months pregnant, from going into labor tonight so I can be where I belong: watching a Michigan victory over Little Brother. Go Blue!

Michigan’s win over Indiana on Saturday raised its record to 16-10, 6-7 in the Big Ten. It certainly won’t qualify as a big win, especially the way Michigan nearly gave up a 20 point lead in the final minutes, but it was an important one for Michigan’s NCAA Tournament chances.

Three weeks ago, the chances of making the Big Dance were all but over, as Michigan completed a six game losing streak with a 69-64 home loss to Minnesota. But after wins at Michigan State and Penn State, and home wins over Iowa, Northwestern, and Indiana, Michigan’s once nonexistent chances are growing. Let’s take a look at Michigan’s current resume and what it needs to do the rest of the season to put itself in position for an at-large bid.

Prior to the Indiana win, Michigan’s RPI was 57, it’s KenPom was 55, and it was tied for 6th in the Big Ten with Minnesota and Penn State. Two years ago, when Michigan made the tournament for the first time in a decade, it finished with a RPI of 44, KenPom of 50, and tied for 7th in the Big Ten with a record of 9-9 (19-12 overall).

At 15-10, with five games remaining, Michigan has a good chance to finish with the same record that got it into the tourney two seasons ago.

The next game is Wednesday at Illinois, the teams’ first and only meeting of the year. The Illini are 16-8 (6-5) with a matchup with No. 12 Purdue on Sunday and are just 3-5 in the last eight games with losses to Penn State, Indiana, and Northwestern, all teams Michigan has beaten.

That game is followed by a trip to Iowa on Saturday. Michigan beat Iowa 87-73 at home on Jan. 30, but despite a 10-14 (3-9) record, the Hawkeyes have played tough as of late. In its past three games, Iowa beat Michigan State by 20, beat Indiana, and lost to Wisconsin by three in overtime.

The following Wednesday, Michigan hosts Wisconsin, which upset No. 1 and undefeated Ohio State this afternoon. The Badgers are 19-5 (9-3), but just 3-4 on the road. The only Big Ten road wins are over Penn State and Iowa, both teams Michigan has beaten.

Michigan then travels to Minneapolis looking for revenge against Minnesota, which beat Michigan 69-64 in Ann Arbor on Jan. 22. The Gophers are on a four game losing streak and visit Iowa on Sunday.

The regular season ends with a battle with rival Michigan State on March 5. Michigan won the season’s first meeting in East Lansing 61-57 and looks to complete the sweep. The Spartans are on a free fall after starting the season ranked 2nd in the nation, losing four of their past six.

Upcoming Schedule
Date	Team	Location	Record	Previous
Wed. 2/16	Illinois	Away	16-8 (6-5)	N/A
Sat. 2/19	Iowa	Away	10-14 (3-9)	W 87-73
Wed. 2/23	Wisconsin	Home	19-5 (9-3)	L 50-66
Sat. 2/26	Minnesota	Away	16-8 (5-7)	L 64-69
Sat. 3/5	Michigan State	Home	14-10 (6-6)	W 61-57

Michigan must win at least three of those five games to have a chance at an at-large bid. The most likely wins are Illinois, Iowa, and Michigan State, although a win over Wisconsin would give Michigan its first good win of the season as far as the bracket committee is concerned.

The difference between the 2008-09 team that made the tournament and this year’s team is wins over UCLA and Duke. Michigan almost had those this year, but fell short against Syracuse (by three), Kansas (by seven in overtime), and Ohio State (by four).

Those games at least proved that Michigan can play with anybody in the nation, but the fact that Michigan didn’t pull any of them out, and as Michigan proved in its last two games by nearly giving away double-digit leads down the stretch, shows that it’s still a very young team that’s still learning how to win. If it closes the schedule 4-1, making its record 19-11 (10-8), that should be good enough to earn an at-large bid since it will likely be fourth place in the Big Ten.

If it finishes 3-2, with a record of 18-12 (9-9), Michigan will need a win or two in the Big Ten tournament to get invited. A losing record over the final five games likely relegates Michigan to the NIT barring a major run in the Big Ten tourney.

This team is getting better by the game, and even though it’s having trouble closing out big leads, it’s exciting to think about this team’s prospects in the next few years. But being a Michigan basketball fan the past decade-plus has become somewhat like that of a Chicago Cubs fan, carrying on the motto of “can’t wait for next year.” With three starting freshmen, Michigan has put itself in position for a tournament run this year and the next two weeks will make all the difference.

So you’re telling me there’s a chance.

Michigan basketball survived the non-conference schedule in style, compiling a 10-2 record, and nearing serious “bubble” talk. But beginning with Tuesday’s Big Ten opener against No. 12 Purdue, the next two months will show whether this team is truly a contender to exceed expectations or just a pretender with the  benefit of a weak non-conference slate.

I’ll admit that I wasn’t a believer in my season preview when I pegged this year’s squad as an 8-5 non-conference team. Well, with still one non-conference game yet to play, against No. 3 Kansas on Jan. 9, the worst the team could be is 10-3.

This is clearly a better team than anticipated given the departures of last year’s stars, Manny Harris and DeShawn Sims. It’s hard to imagine a team being better after losing those two guys, but in some ways, it is a better overall team. Every player on the court is capable of scoring and it doesn’t have to rely on one or two guys to take all the shots or make the big plays.

The two most experienced returning players, Stu Douglass and Zack Novak, have provided the stability the team needs, while sophomore point guard Darius Morris has exploded as the team’s best player. Morris has averaged 15.8 points and 7.5 assists per game and recorded his fourth double-double of the season in Michigan’s win over Bryant on Saturday, earning Big Ten Player of the Week honors.

Sophomore center Jordan Morgan has given Michigan a much-needed inside presence, tied with Ohio State’s Jared Sullinger for the Big Ten lead in offensive rebounds per game, and possessing the strength and agility to defend opposing big men underneath.

Tim Hardaway, Jr. has been a pleasant surprise in his freshman season, averaging 11.8 points per game and giving Michigan a consistent second scoring threat. He has scored double digits in seven of 12 games, including each of the last four, being named last week’s Big Ten co-Freshman of the Week.

Evan Smotrycz and Matt Vogrich have been solid as well, shooting a combined 36 percent from three-point range and averaging a combined 11 points.

The biggest knock on the Wolverines so far this season, and the reason Michigan isn’t ranked despite a 10-2 record, despite a record as good as or better than eight of the teams in the AP Top 25, is the lack of ranked opponents Michigan has played. Only undefeated Syracuse (then No. 9) was ranked when Michigan played them, and Michigan hung tough, losing by just three. It’s Syracuse’s closest win of the season so far.

Unfortunately, Michigan turned around and lost to UTEP the following day in the consolation game of the Legends Classic. That loss more than anything is what’s keeping Michigan from getting more love. The rest of the teams Michigan has faced have a combined record of 54-68.

Beginning with Tuesday’s game, 11 of Michigan’s 18 remaining games are against ranked opponents, including home and away against No. 2 Ohio State and home against No. 3 Kansas. It will likely need to win at least half of the remaining games to earn an NCAA tournament bid. Tuesday’s game will tell us a lot.

Every year, I find mid-November to be an odd juncture in the world of sports. Baseball, the sport that kept us going through the football off-season, just came to climax a few weeks ago, and now football season is in full swing with teams gearing up for the conference title. But just as teams are trying to position themselves for bowl season, basketball throws its hat back into the ring as if to say, “I’m back. Remember me?”

Now we have the Tip-Off Marathon to get us through the week until the next football game, but until football season is over, basketball seems to remain just that: something to get us through until Saturday.

We’ve poured our fandom into the men of the gridiron since August, and now, just as it’s getting interesting with the Ohio State game looming, we’re required to shift our focus to the hardwood every now and then.

For me, it’s hard to get into basketball until after The Game signals the culmination of the football regular season. But tomorrow I’ll turn my gaze to the Big Ten Network as Michigan basketball hosts Bowling Green.

It’s not the official season opener. That was Saturday when Michigan throttled South Carolina Upstate 66-35. But in many ways it is since it’s played mid-week instead of right after a Michigan football game, and it’s the first televised game of the season. So what can we expect from Michigan this year?

Unfortunately, in many ways, it looks like it’s going to resemble this year’s football team: exciting to watch at times, but it has to depend so much on youth that we’ll be left thinking “can’t wait ’til next year.”

The heart and soul of last year’s team is gone, Manny Harris to the Cleveland Cavaliers and DeShawn Sims to graduation. And while Zack Gibson, Anthony Wright, and Lavell Lucas Perry were never mistaken for the trio down in South Beach, their experience will be missed as well. The roster now looks much like the football team’s secondary: a lot of “So.”s and “Fr.”s.

Don’t get me wrong: there’s still a lot of talent there. Zack Novak and Stu Douglass are now the leaders – the current juniors who electrified Ann Arbor with their gritty play and long-range shooting, helping Michigan break its decade-long tournament drought as freshmen, but suffered through a sophomore slump last season. Then there’s point guard Darius Morris who started 19 games as a freshman a year ago, averaging 4.4 points, 2.6 assists, and 1.8 rebounds a game, and giving Michigan its first true point guard with size in quite a while. And there’s also the three sons of former NBA players, Jordan Dumars, Tim Hardaway Jr., and Jon Horford.

While there’s room for optimism, we also must remember that Novak and Douglass struggled to find the net last season, shooting a combined 31.8 percent from three-point land. And we must remember that Morris was prone to turnovers and got too far ahead of himself at times. And we also must realize that, pedigree or not, Dumars, Hardaway, and Horford are all in their first season of collegiate action*.

One thing is certain: it’s officially John Beilein’s team. With Harris and Sims gone, every player on the roster is a Beilein recruit and will aim to run his system the way West Virginia did with a team of scrappy no-names. It’s a system predicated on shooting and last year that was a struggle. I would never call the departure of Harris and Sims a good thing, but perhaps the team will epitomize the word team with no go-to guy to rely on. Perhaps Novak and Douglass will have no second thoughts about whether to jack up a three or dish it off to Manny, and that, in turn, will make them better shooters.

They’ll have help on the inside with Jordan Morgan and Blake McLimans. Morgan redshirted last season after dominating high school basketball in Detroit and is a athletic, thick body in the middle. McLimans also redshirted last season and is the tallest player on the team at 6’10″. He used the redshirt season to add 25 pounds of weight to his previously thin frame and should be ready to man up underneath this season while occasionally stepping out to hit the outside shot.

Sophomore guard Matt Vogrich, who got some playing time last season, will also be asked to contribute. Against Northern Michigan last season, he scored 15 points, all on three-pointers, and shot 39.3 percent from three-point range for the year.

The Newcomers
Tim Hardaway Jr.	Jon Horford	Evan Smotrycz	Colton Christian
10	15	23	45
G	F	F	F
6’5″	6’9″	6’9″	6’6″
185 lbs.	220 lbs.	225 lbs.	215 lbs.
Miami, Fla.	Grand Ledge, Mich.	Reading, Mass.	Bellevue, Wash.
Palmetto Senior H.S.	Grand Ledge H.S.	New Hampton Prep (N.H.)	Hargrave Military Academy

The season officially started last Saturday as Michigan handled South Carolina Upstate and Novak and Douglass went a combined three-for-six from long range, but it was Morris and Hardaway who stepped up.

Hardaway led all scorers in the first game of his career, scoring 19 points in 25 minutes, including three threes. Morris made seven-of-ten shots for 17 points. If Michigan can get that kind of production from those two all season, it will win plenty of games.

The non-conference portion of the schedule has a mix of cupcakes and quality opponents. Two should-win games are up next, Bowling Green tomorrow and Gardner-Webb on Sunday, before the first big test of the season, Syracuse, next Friday in Atlantic City, N.J. The Wolverines travel to Clemson for the ACC/Big Ten Challenge on Nov. 30 and host Utah on Dec. 10. Michigan also hosts Kansas on Jan. 9 after three Big Ten games and before closing out the season with the rest of the conference slate.

Including the Kansas game, I’d say an 8-5 non-conference record is likely, meaning Michigan will have to have a winning record in conference in order to make it to the Big Dance this season. Unfortunately, that’s not going to happen this year with Ohio State and Michigan State on the schedule twice, as well as Illinois, Purdue, and the always tough Wisconsin. The Big Ten may not be as tough as it has been the past few years, but it will still be solid from top to bottom, and with such a young team, Michigan is a year away from really challenging for a title.

As much as it pains me to say it, this looks to be a season similar to last year’s, although it won’t feel as much of a letdown this year as it was after coming off a trip to the tournament prior to last season. I predict a 15-16 regular season record (7-11 in the Big Ten), but let’s hope I’m wrong. Go Blue!

*Dumars played in six games last season for South Florida before transferring to Michigan and sitting out the rest of the season.

Michigan (9-7, 3-2 Big Ten) hosts Connecticut on Sunday looking for a much-needed signature win to enhance its NCAA tournament resume.

That Michigan is still in the running for the NCAA tournament is a bit optimistic at this point, given that Michigan’s biggest win so far was a nine point home win over then-15th ranked Ohio State.

But with the Big Ten race wide open, a team that gets hot down the stretch could very well play its way into the NCAA tournament.

Don’t get me wrong; I’m not saying Michigan is as good a team as Michigan State, Wisconsin or Purdue, but if the shots are falling, beating those teams is certainly not out of the question.

Michigan’s main problems this season have been shooting woes and lack of leadership – two things that carried the team into the second round of the NCAA tournament last season.

The leadership issue was lost when senior guards C.J. Lee and David Merritt graduated, and John Beilein’s team has struggled to fill that role.

“We’re better than this,” said Beilein following Michigan’s loss to Northwestern last Sunday – a game in which Michigan led by 17 at halftime.  ”But it’s just a big thing right now, a chemistry we’ve got to develop on this team.”

Perhaps that chemistry was found in the second half of Thursday night’s win over Indiana after Michigan played what was probably its worst half of the season, when it committed 11 turnovers in the first half.

Junior star guard Manny Harris went the first 20 minutes without a made field goal, scoring just four points, all on free throws. His shots were forced and his play was lackadaisical..

The second half began much the same way until Beilein went to perhaps his best coaching move of the season last year – putting Harris on the bench for an extended period of time.

Last year, Beilein sat Harris for the entire overtime period at Iowa. Michigan was out-scored 14-4 in that period and fell to 7-8 in Big Ten play. Fans were outraged at the move as it seemingly hurt Michigan’s NCAA tournament chances.

But four days later, Harris exploded for 27 points in an upset of 16thranked Purdue, and Michigan would win three of its final five games to earn a spot in the tournament.  

This time, Harris emerged from the bench after a few minutes, with Indiana within four, and poured in 17 points the final 12 minutes of the game. Michigan won by 24, outscoring Indiana 21-2 in the final six minutes.

Shots were falling and Michigan looked like it was having as much fun as it has had since the season started. Can it carry that confidence into the rest of the season?

Make no mistake about it; Indiana is not a good team, so to say that this was a big win is an exaggeration. But it was a win that Michigan needed and hopes to build upon.

Enter Connecticut (11-5, 2-3 Big East). The nation’s 15th-ranked team began the season 9-2, but has dropped three of its last five since entering the arduous Big East schedule.

Just looking at the rosters, it seems as if Connecticut has a major advantage: size. Five guys stand 6’9” or taller that see minutes for the Huskies, compared to just one – Zach Gibson – for Michigan, and Gibson only averages just under 10 minutes per game.

UConn had the same advantage last season, along with Hasheem Thabeet, the second pick in last year’s NBA Draft, and Michigan hung with the Huskies in Storrs.

This year’s Connecticut team isn’t quite as good and turns the ball over nearly 14 times per game, which plays right into Michigan’s hands. Michigan forces 15.2 turnovers per game.

If Michigan can carry over the momentum from Thursday’s second half and feed off a frenzied “maize out” home crowd, much like during last year’s upset of Duke, it can earn that signature win for its resume.

For a team so in need of a resume boost, this week is do-or-die.

Following Sunday’s game, Michigan travels to No. 13 Wisconsin on Wednesday and No. 6 Purdue on Saturday before returning to Ann Arbor to host No. 7 Michigan State the following Tuesday.

While a win over Connecticut won’t help in the Big Ten race, it would give Michigan confidence heading into those three key conference match-ups.

Michigan has shown some signs of progress the past couple of weeks, but has yet to put a full 40 minutes together.

A poor first half last week at Penn State preceded a dominant second half comeback in which Michigan outscored Penn State 38-13 during one stretch en route to a nine-point win.

The following game, Michigan raced out to a 17-point lead against Northwestern, but couldn’t hold on in the second half, falling 68-62.

Then on Thursday, Michigan played a poor first half, but exploded in the second to thump Indiana by 24.

 Senior DeShawn Sims is playing the best basketball of his career as of late, carrying Michigan even when Harris is in a funk.

The versatile forward has averaged 20.3 points per game since being held to just 10 against Utah on Dec. 9, and 22.5 points per game in the last four.

His ability to step outside and hit the mid-range jumper and the occasional three has kept Michigan afloat while the guards struggled from the outside.

For Michigan to win on Sunday, it will need another big performance from Sims, and with both he and Harris leading the way, Michigan’s NCAA tournament chances aren’t dead yet.

After two straight losses in the Old Spice Classic and a four-point loss to Boston College in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge, is it time for Michigan fans to recalibrate their expectations for this season?

Michigan entered the season ranked 15th in the nation, fresh off its first trip to the NCAA tournament in 10 years, and looking to make a run at the Big Ten title.

Seven games later, Michigan is out of the Top 25 and needed a good second half on Saturday against Arkansas-Pine Bluff to move its record back above .500.

Is it too early to write off the season? Absolutely not. John Beilein is a great coach who can turn things around.

But, although these early-season struggles raise some concerns, they aren’t as surprising as they seem.

This is still a very young team. Yes, it’s led by senior DeShawn Sims and junior Manny Harris, but 75 percent of the team is underclassmen.

Aside from Sims and Harris, only redshirt senior Zack Gibson and redshirt junior Anthony Wright have more than a year of playing experience, and the two combine for just 20 minutes of playing time per game.

So it should come as no surprise that the team’s main problem is its shooting so far this season. Michigan seems to be struggling with its confidence.

Through seven games, Michigan is shooting just 29 percent from three-point range, though even that number is inflated from the first three games against weak competition.

Against Northern Michigan, Houston Baptist and Creighton, Michigan shot 36.2 percent from long range.

In the three subsequent losses, Michigan shot just 21.8 percent from downtown, including a miserable 3-for-20 outing against Marquette and 9-for-34 against Boston College.

Talk about living and dying by the three.

No one has looked comfortable shooting the ball the past four games (including Saturday’s 67-53 win over Arkansas-Pine Bluff).

Michigan’s best three-point shooter so far this season (percentage-wise) is true freshman Matt Vogrich, though he is just 6-for-11.

Sharp-shooting sophomores Zach Novak and Stu Douglass are just 31 and 22.6 percent, respectively, while Harris has made just 7-of-33 attempts from long range.

For a team that relies heavily on guard play and three-point shooting, that’s certainly not a recipe for success.

But that’s also why I’m hopeful that the season is not lost. Surely the team will gain its confidence and the shooting will improve.

Douglass, Novak and Harris each shot about 34 percent last season from three-point range and will eventually find their shot this year. And when that happens, Michigan will be a dangerous team capable of beating anybody.

So far, Harris has been every bit of the pre-season co-Big Ten player of the year, averaging 21.1 points and 8.7 rebounds per game, despite his poor shooting.

He had just the second triple-double in school history in Michigan’s season-opening win over Northern Michigan, and was a rebound away from another against Creighton.

Sims has also played well, averaging 15.3 points and 7.4 rebounds per game, and had his best game of the season on Saturday against Arkansas-Pine Bluff. He scored 15 points in the first half on his way to a 19-point, 10-rebound performance.

The surrounding cast hasn’t given Harris and Sims much help and Michigan needs a third scoring threat to emerge in order to live up to the preseason expectations.

It makes me wonder if the losses of guards David Merritt and C.J. Lee to graduation really did affect this team more than I thought it would.

Merritt and Lee averaged just 4.7 points per game combined, but they were the leaders. They played tough defense, dove for loose balls, and held the team together.

Early this season, Michigan has lacked those qualities. Novak vowed to fill that role, but hasn’t been a consistent scoring option so far.

True freshman Darius Morris took over the point guard duties, but has just as many turnovers as assists and doesn’t look to shoot enough.

Douglass is a defensive liability when he’s on the court, which is acceptable when he’s hitting threes, but he hasn’t found his shot yet this year.

As the season progresses, Michigan will grow to fill that void, but it’s running out of time.

With non-conference games at Utah and Kansas remaining, as well as a January match-up with Connecticut, Michigan probably has to win two of those three to have a shot at postseason play.

Utah certainly looks beatable, having losses to Idaho, Seattle, and Weber State on its resume, but it did beat Illinois, and the game is in Salt Lake, so it’s not a given.

Michigan ended its three game losing streak by beating Arkansas-Pine Bluff on Saturday and seemed to find its rhythm in the second half.

If it can carry over that confidence into Wednesday’s game at Utah, Michigan will be on track to enter the Big Ten schedule.

It’s not time to panic yet, but Utah could be the game that makes or breaks the season. A loss will probably mean Michigan needs to beat Kansas and UConn or fare far better in the Big Ten than expected.

I expect the shooting will turn around, but it better do so on Wednesday in Salt Lake City.

With the football team entering the last month of the season, Michigan’s basketball team takes the court in Friday’s exhibition with Wayne State looking to be the toast of Ann Arbor for the second straight year.

Michigan basketball has enjoyed success over much of its history and won a National Championship in 1989, but has still always been considered second-rate on campus behind the boys on the gridiron.

But with the recent growing pains of the football program, the rejuvenated basketball program in its third year under head coach John Beilein, enters the season with high expectations. Michigan ranks 15th in the preseason Associated Press and ESPN/USA Today Coaches polls, the first time in 12 years it enters the season ranked.

And for the first time in recent history, Michigan fans look forward to the end of football season and the beginning of basketball season.

With a 22-14 record last year, and a return to the NCAA Basketball tournament for the first time in 11 years, a pair of John Wooden All-American candidates and another year of experience for last year’s youth should help the squad challenge for the Big Ten title.

The team:

Guard Manny Harris is the star after leading Michigan in scoring (16.9), rebounding (6.8), assists (4.4), steals (1.2), minutes (32.9) and free-throw percentage (86.3 percent) last season as a sophomore.

The junior from Detroit opted to forego the NBA Draft and return to help Michigan build upon its success.

Harris was named to the 2009-10 Naismith Preseason Men’s College Basketball Player of the Year Watch List in addition to being a candidate for the John Wooden Player of the Year award.

Senior forward DeShawn Sims led the team in blocks (27) and field goal percentage (50.5) and was second on the team behind Harris in points (15.4), rebounds (6.8), steals (1.1) and minutes (30.7) last season.

A true team player, Sims has embodied Beilein’s unselfish system, coming off the bench for nine of Michigan’s games last season, yet still earning All-Big Ten Second Team honors.

Sophomores Zack Novak, Stu Douglass and Laval Lucas-Perry give the backcourt experienced returning talent.

Novak was Michigan’s best three-point shooter last season at 34.4 percent and had perhaps his biggest game in leading Michigan to an upset over No. 4 Duke.

Lucas-Perry also shot 34.4 percent from downtown, though on about half as many attempts as Harris and Novak. Lucas-Perry gives Michigan size and quickness at the guard position.

Douglass is a slightly smaller version of Novak, a streaky sharpshooter who averaged 6.1 points per game last season.

Another wing player with a lot of experience is redshirt junior forward Anthony Wright. While his numbers won’t blow anyone away (he averaged just 2.7 points per game last season), Wright came up big in the second round of the NCAA Tournament, scoring 14 points against Oklahoma. His experience should pay off this season.

Senior center Zack Gibson returns to fill the middle. The 6-10 forward averaged 3.9 points and 2.2 rebounds a year ago and gives Michigan a big man that can occasionally step out and hit the three, although not as well as he seems to think he can. Michigan fans would prefer him to stay inside.

The Newcomers
Darius Morris	Eso Akunne	Matt Vogrich	Josh Bartelstein	Blake McLimans	Jordan Morgan
4	5	13	20	22	52
PG	G	G	G	F	F
6-4	6-3	6-4	6-3	610	6-8
180	220	180	190	220	240
Los Angeles, Calif.	Ann Arbor, Mich.	Lake Forest, Ill.	Highland Park, Ill.	Hamburg, N.Y.	Detroit, Mich.
Windward	Gabriel Richard	Lake Forest	Phillips Exeter Academy	Worcester Academy	Univ. of Detroit Jesuit

Newcomers Darius Morris, Matt Vogrich, Blake McLimans and Jordan Morgan more than make up for the players Michigan lost to graduation (C.J. Lee, Jevohn Shepherd and David Merritt).

Morris is a hotshot point guard recruit out of Los Angeles, Calif. He averaged 21.7 points, 6.2 rebounds and 5.8 assists and was named the John Wooden State Player of the Year as a senior.

Vogrich is another sharpshooter that fits the mold of Beilein’s program perfectly. A 6-4 guard, Vogrich averaged 16.7 points, 6.5 rebounds and 2.1 assists in earning Gatorade Player of the Year honors for the state of Illinois.

Morgan and McLimans give Beilein a pair of big guys to bolster Michigan’s frontcourt.

Morgan averaged 14.5 points, 10.1 rebounds and 2.3 blocks per game at the University of Detroit Jesuit High School. He was named to the Detroit Free Press Class A All-State third team as a senior.

McLimans, at 6-10, 220 gives Michigan a much-needed body on the inside. He is somewhat unknown since he didn’t play AAU ball, but appears to be the versatile-type big man Beilein prefers with the ability to shoot from the outside.

Another player that could play a role is sophomore center Ben Cronin. At 7-0, 265, Cronin is the biggest player on the roster and runs the court well for a big guy. If he can stay healthy (he had hip surgery on Jan. 14), Cronin will be a big help, especially once the physical play of the Big Ten season begins.

The schedule:

The schedule stacks up slightly tougher than in recent years and should provide a good barometer of how good this Michigan team really is.

Creighton, Marquette, Xavier, and Florida State all await Michigan early on in the Old Spice Classic in Orlando, Fla.

In this year’s ACC/Big Ten Challenge, Michigan hosts Boston College on Dec. 2, a team that needs to find its identity after losing Tyrese Rice. This should be Michigan’s first win in the challenge since beating Miami in 2005.

Games to Watch
Date	Team	Rank	Location	Time	TV
Thu. Nov. 26	Creighton		Orlando, Fla.	12 p.m.	ESPN2
Sat. Dec. 19	Kansas	1	Lawrence, Kan.	1 p.m.	ESPN
Sun. Jan. 17	Connecticut	12	Ann Arbor, Mich.	TBA	CBS
Sat. Jan. 23	Purdue	7	West Lafayette, Ind.	4 p.m.	ESPN
Tue. Jan. 26	Michigan State	2	Ann Arbor, Mich.	7 p.m.	ESPN
Sat. Feb. 27	Ohio State	16	Columbus, Ohio	TBA	ESPN or BTN

Michigan also travels to Utah and Kansas before beginning the Big Ten portion of the schedule, and hosts No. 1 Connecticut on Jan. 17.

Last season, Michigan put up a good fight against Connecticut, losing by just eight on the road after leading 34-33 at halftime. This year, Michigan gets the Huskies at home, where it upset No. 4 Duke a year ago.

Once the Big Ten season starts, the schedule doesn’t get any easier.

Rival Michigan State ranks 2nd in the nation after falling to North Carolina in the national championship game last March, and features the reigning Big Ten Player of the Year, Kalin Lucas.

Purdue will also be a formidable opponent as the Boilermakers enter the season ranked 7th in the nation. A Sweet Sixteen team a year ago, Purdue is led by versatile 6-8 forward Robbie Hummel, who averaged 12.5 points and 7.0 rebounds per game last season.

Ohio State comes in at No. 16 in the nation, and looks to absolve its early exit from last season’s NCAA Tournament. Jon Diebler, Evan Turner, David Lighty and Dallas Lauderdale return to give Ohio State experienced talent all over the court.

Illinois and Minnesota also enter the season in the Top 25, at 23rd and 25th, respectively. Both are very well coached teams that fared well last season. Illinois has to find leadership to replace point guard Chester Frazier and shooting guard Trent Meacham, while Minnesota brought in a highly regarded recruiting class to complement seniors Lawrence Westbrook and Damian Johnson.

Outlook:

Last year’s team lived and died on two things: three-pointers and free throws.

In 22 wins, Michigan shot 36.8 percent from downtown and 76.7 percent from the free throw line, while getting to the line 19 times per game.

In 14 losses, Michigan shot just 29.5 percent from three and 72.7 percent from the foul line, while getting to the line just under 12 times per game.

The ability to knock down the three and get to the free throw line is key for Michigan since its strength is in the backcourt.

Harris is at his best when he’s driving to the basket, picking up fouls. He shot 204 free throws last year, making 176 of them. That’s nearly twice as many made free throws as the next closest player, DeShawn Sims, had attempts (93).

The guys that accounted for many of the three-point attempts, Novak, Douglass, and Lucas-Perry (43 percent combined) were freshmen last season, which according to the Big Ten Geeks is good news for this season.

Their research shows that college basketball players make their most improvement from their freshman to sophomore seasons.

If that holds true, and if freshman Darius Morris can perform adequately at point guard, Michigan should be in for another good season.

Making the NCAA Tournament should not be the goal for this year’s team, as it should be a virtual lock. Challenging for the Big Ten title should be.

While Michigan has the ability to beat anyone in the nation on any given night, it must prove it can win on the road.

I predict a 21-9 season (12-6 in the Big Ten) with splits against Ohio State, Purdue, Minnesota, and Wisconsin, and losing both games to Michigan State and out-of conference losses to Utah, Kansas, and one of the games in the Old Spice Classic.

Obviously I hope it’s better than this, but I prefer to lean toward the safe side, due to still having a lot of youth in the backcourt and no proven inside presence. That way I can be pleasantly surprised if the team overachieves.

A return trip to the NCAA Tournament as a mid seed and advancing to the Sweet Sixteen should be considered a realistic goal for this team.

All-in-all, it should be an exciting season for Michigan basketball.