With the beginning of Thanksgiving Week, I thought it only appropriate that I dedicate this column to the things I am thankful for.  Now, let’s be clear: I am thankful for a lot of things more important than Michigan football, but since this website is dedicated to talking about all things Wolverines, I doubt that anyone would be interested in reading about anything other than that.  So I won’t spend time on those other things (hey, there’s something that YOU can be thankful for!).

Brady Hoke has made it fun to be a Michigan fan again (AP photo)

The first thing that I am thankful for is a Michigan football program that I can be proud to be a fan of.  I wasn’t one of those bandwagon fans that ditched my team over the past three years while it struggled to even get to .500.  But let’s be honest, it wasn’t exactly easy to say that you were a Michigan fan.  That’s especially true where I live, which is in the heart of Buckeye country.  But I didn’t hide my team colors and I never took down the Michigan flag flying in front of my house.

This year is different.  While they still have a ways to go, Michigan has a talented team on both sides of the ball and last time I checked, Michigan has the #2 ranked recruiting class coming in for 2012.  The fact that the Wolverines are 9-2 going into Ohio week is also exciting.  This is the best record that Michigan has had going in to this game since 2006!  Not only that, but Michigan also has an excellent chance of finishing the regular season with double-digit wins.

Speaking of the game against Ohio, this reminds me of another thing that I am thankful for: a home game against the Buckeyes.  Michigan has played its best football in the Big House this year, where they are undefeated at 7-0 and have out-scored their opponents 267-82.  Not that I don’t think the Wolverines could win in Columbus, but isn’t it better to have one less thing to worry about?  No bus trip, no sleeping in a hotel, and no stadium full of punk-ass Ohio fans to listen to.  We will do that next year and still beat their butts.

I am also thankful for Head Coach Brady Hoke and the coaching staff that he has put together for this Michigan team.  Coach Hoke has done an excellent job of providing strong leadership for the Wolverines this season, portraying a no-nonsense attitude when it comes to winning and getting his players to buy into his system and what it means to be a Michigan football player.  These were two things that were lost on all players who played under the previous coaching regime.

Defensive Coordinator Greg Mattison has re-established a Michigan defense that opposing teams and fans all across the country can no longer laugh at.  While much maligned in this weekly column, Offensive Coordinator Al Borges has done a good job of creating balance so that defenses can no longer key in on stopping only Denard Robinson.  Running back Fitzgerald Toussaint is a clear-cut threat out of the backfield and Michigan’s receivers have improved greatly, as well as the offensive line.  While I haven’t always agreed with Borges’ play-calling on a game-by-game basis, I think that he has done a good job of working with the talent that he has.  Once that 2012 recruiting class arrives, Borges will have even more weapons at his disposal.

After some midseason struggles, not having a QB controversy is something to be thankful for (Getty Images photo)

Lastly, I am thankful that the team never went through a quarterback controversy this year after Denard had some struggles in the middle of the year.  The Michigan offense is SO much better with Denard as the starting QB.  Not only that, but it is SO much better when the coaches aren’t shuffling him in and out with Devin Gardner for those gimmick gadget plays that never really accomplished anything of substance for the offense.  In fact, it actually made it easier for the defenses they were going up against.

Nothing shows this better than this past week’s dominating performance against Nebraska.  Borges did not call any ‘Gardner-gadget’ plays all game, opting instead to leave Denard in the game and allowing him to get into a rhythm.  Borges called plays which put the ball in Denard’s hands and let him take the offense up and down the field.  The majority of these plays were out of the shotgun with the two-headed monster of Denard and Toussaint in the backfield.  Off of that, Borges called play-action passes when the Nebraska defense over-committed to the run and short, quick passes whenever Denard dropped back in the pocket.  The result: 45 points, 418 yards, 24 first downs, two passing touchdowns, four rushing touchdowns, and Denard was 11-of-18 passing.  That’s a 61 percent efficiency.  If you have been paying attention to this article each week, that kind of play-calling is EXACTLY what I’ve been advocating.  Man, it feels good to be right!

As Michigan fans, we all have a lot to be thankful for this year.  With a win over Ohio on Saturday, we all could be thankful for another New Year’s Day bowl game, or even a BCS at-large bid.  With the shake-up that happened in the BCS this past weekend, that’s a definite possibility.  But the Wolverines have to take care of business on the field first.  No doubt, Coach Hoke will have the team excited and ready to play.  Ever since Hoke has been there, a countdown clock has been counting down the days until Ohio came to town.  That clock is almost at zero.  It’s time to go to work.

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*Because my wife would probably not be happy if I didn’t include her on my ‘Things I am Thankful for’ list, I wanted to include that I am very thankful for her and for our soon-to-be-born baby.  Thank you for letting me watch and write about my favorite team so much, honey!

Coming into the season Nebraska was one of the early favorites to win the B1G Ten Legends division. Coming into this weekend’s game Nebraska was still in the running for the top spot in the Legends division and a chance to play in the first ever B1G Ten Championship game. Michigan was having none of it as the Wolverines thumped the Cornhuskers 45-17 en route to their ninth win of the season.

#18 Michigan 45 – #16 Nebraska 17
	Final Stats
45	Final Score	17
9-2 (5-2)	Record	8-3 (4-3)
418	Total Yards	260
238	Net Rushing Yards	138
180	Net Passing Yards	122
24	First Downs	11
1	Turnovers	3
5-45	Penalties – Yards	8-73
4-147	Punts – Yards	6-276
41:13	Time of Possession	18:39
8-for-18	Third Down Conversions	3-for-13
1-for-1	Fourth Down Conversions	0-for-2
3-4	Sacks By – Yards	1-13
1-for-2	Field Goals	1-for-1
6-for-6	PATs	2-for-2
5-for-5	Red Zone Scores – Chances	1-for-2

Michigan was in control pretty much from its second series on, although Nebraska made it interesting for a few minutes in the second quarter. But the Wolverine offense and defense played what I thought was their best game overall this year.

Michigan couldn’t get anything going on its first series, going 3-and-out, but Nebraska did the exact same on its first series. On the first play of Michigan’s next drive we saw something we got accustomed to last season, but haven’t seen all that much of this year: a Denard keeper for a big gain. After that, a screen pass and a short run, both by Toussaint gave Michigan another first down. After a short keeper and an incomplete pass, Michigan was faced with 3rd-and-9, but Denard hit Roy Roundtree for a gain of 46 yards. A personal foul penalty moved Michigan inside the 3-yard line, and on 2nd-and-goal Denard faked it to Stephen Hopkins, rolled left, and hit Jeremy Gallon across the middle of the end zone for six points.

Nebraska looked like it was going to get rolling after a first down option keeper by Taylor Martinez went for 11 yards, however, Michigan had other thoughts. Mike Martin stuffed Rex Burkhead, and Kenny Demens had a pass break up on third down to get Michigan the ball back after a punt.

Michigan took over in great field position at its 45-yard line. A play-action found no one open so Denard took off and gained 15. Two straight carries by Toussaint gained 14 yards and set up a Denard keeper for about seven. Denard was almost picked off on a pass attempt to Kelvin Grady and was then sacked for a loss of 13 on 3rd-and-8. Fortunately, Michigan was still within field goal range and Brendan Gibbons nailed through a 42-yarder to put Michigan on top 10-0.

But Nebraska wasn’t ready to lay down and die. On the third play of its next drive, Martinez hit a wide open receiver down the field, who broke a couple tackles then walked into the end zone from 54 yards out. 10-7 Michigan.

Michigan turned the ball over on its next possession as Denard’s pass on a second down was tipped and picked off. Nebraska looked like it was going to squander its opportunity as Jordan Kovacs stuffed Burkhead in the backfield for a loss of five. Faced with a 4th-and-14 Nebraska booted a 51-yarder in to tie the game at 10.

The Michigan defense was the big story on the day, stuffing the Nebraska run game (photo by Tony Ding, AP)

Michigan took over on its own 26 and ran Toussaint a couple times for a first down. A couple plays later, a third down pass to Hemingway kept the drive alive, and then a Denard keeper for eight kept the drive going once again on a third down. A play later, Toussaint broke free for 16 yards, and two plays after that, Denard visited the end zone on a QB keeper up the middle to put Michigan back ahead.

After two straight first down plays Michigan’s defense stepped up, first stuffing Martinez on a keeper for a loss of seven, then Jake Ryan tripped up Martinez as he tried to scramble. Michigan returned the favor and went three-and-out as Denard came up just shy of the marker on third down.  Nebraska also went three-and-out and then Michigan ran the clock out to end the half.

Nebraska got the ball to start the second half – or so they thought. Return man Kenny Bell fumbled the ball and Courtney Avery was there to fall on it. Michigan made the most of the turnover, as its has done a lot this season, punching it in for six points a few plays later. The drive was aided by a pass interference that was a bit questionable, but who are we to argue with professional referees? Denard scored his second rushing touchdown of the game and Michigan took a 24-10 lead.

Michigan’s defense held again as Mike Martin stopped Martinez on a 3rd-and-short to force the punt. Punter Brett Maher bobbled the snap and Josh Furman took advantage of the situation, blocking the punt. The ‘Huskers recovered but couldn’t get it past the marker, giving Michigan possession at midfield.

Toussaint took the first two plays and went for 11 and 10 yards, respectively. After the 10-yarder he was hit out of bounds and the officials tacked on another 15 yards to set Michigan up inside the red zone. Denard was stuffed on 3rd-and-1 and Hoke sent the field gaol unit out. However, holder Drew Dileo took the snap and carried the ball down to the 1, setting up first and goal. Toussaint walked in for another Michigan touchdown to blow the game open at 31-10.

After Nebraska went 3-and-out, the punt pinned Michigan back at its own 4-yard line, where the Wolverines proceeded to go 3-and-out as well. Nebraska benefited from the field position game and took over at the Michigan 31. After a Martinez first down through the air, Nebraska ran the same play three straight times – a pitch right to Burkhead. On the third try the ‘Huskers picked up a first down. It was their first third down conversion of the day, with just over a minute and a half to go in the third quarter.

Fitz Tousaint recorded his second-straight (and third in the last four) game with more than 130 rushing yards (photo by Carlos Osorio, AP)

On 2nd-and-goal Martinez handed the ball to Burkhead on an option read but Burkhead pitched it to Ameer Abdullah who took it in for six. That made the score 31-17 Michigan, but there was plenty of time remaining for Nebraska to come back.

In what may have been the most critical play of the game, Michigan received a gift. After being stuffed on third down, Michigan lined up for the punt. Just as the ball left Will Hagerup’s foot, a ‘Husker defender came in and ever so slightly nipped his non-kicking foot as it was off the ground. The officials conferred and ruled it roughing the kicker, and first down Meeeeshigan!

The Wolverines made the most of the gift as Toussaint made some nifty moves on first down for a gain of 13, and then after a snap infraction by Molk, he broke a couple tackles for a gain of 8. On 3rd-and-short, Denard hit Martavious Odoms for the first down, then two plays later for a 38-yard touchdown on a deep pass. 38-17 Michigan.

Nebraska gifted Michigan another fumble on the kickoff return and J.B. Fitzgerald recovered on the ‘Husker 22-yard line. Michigan couldn’t get anything going and was forced into a 4th-and-long field goal attempt from 42 yards out, but Gibbons missed it wide right.

The defense held strong on its next series. Jake Ryan sacked Martinez on second down, and then forced a Martinez fumble on third down, which was recovered by Ryan Van Bergen.

Toussaint capped the scoring as he broke several tackles and broke free for 31-yard touchdown run on Michigan’s first play. 45-17 Michigan.

Nebraska is not a top five team, or maybe not even a top 10 team, but after a complete dominance by Michigan on both sides of the ball, the Wolverines proved they are for real. If there are still doubters about this Michigan team out there, and I know there are, then this performance should have them taking down their ‘fraud flags’ because these Wolverines are not just good, they’re really good. For the first time since 2006 I actually feel good heading in to Ohio week. Heck, I feel better than good, I’m expecting a Michigan win!

Last week, we all lowballed Michigan, both offensively and defensively. None of us had Michigan scoring more than 24 points and all of us had Illinois scoring at least 20. Sometimes, however, it’s good to be wrong…such as when Michigan dominates a game we didn’t expect them to dominate.

Justin was the closest last week, although we all picked almost the exact same score. This week, we’re vying for a box of Big Red gum and an autographed Bo Pelini Ohio State football card…you know, to provide some burning material for next week.

The picks:

Justin (2) – Nebraska and Michigan are very similar teams. Both like to run, both have mobile quarterbacks that are the most dangerous players on the field, both are coached by defensive-minded coaches, and both have decent defenses that rank about the same in most categories.

Michigan’s defense has handled mobile quarterbacks better than Nebraska’s has this season, but the complexity of the Nebraska offense is unlike anything Michigan has seen so far. Defensive Coordinator Greg Mattison spoke highly of the threat the ‘Huskers present with the power run game, the option attack, and the fast tempo.

The biggest key to the game will be how quickly defensive mastermind Greg Mattison figures out the Nebraska offense (photo by MGoBlue.com)

I think the winner of this game will be decided in the first 30 minutes. If you remember the Northwestern game, Michigan had trouble adjusting to the quick temp spread attack in the first half and fell behind. Mattison was able to make the necessary adjustments to shut down the Wildcats in the second half and Michigan’s offense came alive to overtake them. In this one, however, Michigan can’t afford to fall behind by much. I think it will take a little time for the defense to figure out how to defend the ‘Huskers, and so the offense has to be able to keep pace in the first half. I’m fully confident that if Michigan has the lead, or keeps it close, at halftime (essentially “weathers the storm”), the Wolverines will pull it out in the second half.

Look for Mattison to dial up the same defensive pressure he’s brought all season to try to force Martinez to rush his throws. That’s when he is prone to make poor decisions.

Offensively, look for Michigan to run it right at the middle of the ‘Husker defense, which has struggled to stop the power run game this year, and also mix in a short passing game to keep the defense off balance. One thing the ‘Husker D is is fast, and even though it doesn’t tend to get a lot of pressure on the quarterback, it can play well laterally. Defensive Coordinator Carl Pelini likes to rush just four and drop seven into man coverage. That won’t work against Michigan’s running game, so it will be interesting to see what kind of adjustments he makes for Denard and Co.

Regardless, I think Michigan has the edge at home and will improve to 9-2.

Michigan 33 – Nebraska 27

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Josh (3) - Nebraska comes into A2 this weekend with an identical record as the Wolverines: 8-2. Nebraska has been a bit disappointing compared to expectations coming into the season but they are still a solid team. Nebraska suffered its first loss of the season at Wisconsin in Week 5, then bounced back by beating some school down south before trouncing Minnesota. They then took on Michigan State at home and sent the Spartans packing with a 24-3 defeat. The next game, however, they managed to somehow lose to Northwestern at home before beating Penn State in an emotional State College last week. Overall, they’ve beaten the teams they should have beaten except for one, Northwestern, but hey, we all lose to teams we should have beaten (cough cough, Iowa).

Nebraska’s rush defense ranks 66th in the country, bad by elite program standards but not completely awful. Overall, they’re giving up 352 yards per game, 38th in total team defense. While the rush defense is a weak point, the pass defense is not, giving up just under 191 yards per game. Michigan has been giving up just over 191 per game passing and just under 131 per game rushing, yet no one is talking about how good this defense is. Incidentally, Michigan is top 20 in total defense (I think that whole WMU rain game mess seems to have thrown off the stats a bit but regardless this Michigan D is MUCH improved).

Taylor Martinez is dangerous with his legs, but suspect when forced to pass (photo by Justin K. Aller, Getty Images)

Nebraska has a stout rush offense, averaging around 233 per game, compared to Michigan’s 236. All the talk is generally about Taylor Martinez, but Rex Burkhead is the key cog in this rushing attack. Burkhead has over 1,000 yards and 14 touchdowns while averaging a decent 5.1 yards per carry. Not quite Heisman quality YPC, but when you know you can run the ball three times in a row and your back will get you a first down nine times out of 10, you’re in great shape.

This is not to take anything away from Martinez; he’s a good option quarterback and can make plays with his feet as well as his arm. While he may not be the best player on Nebraska’s offense, Martinez is arguably the most important. At times he has looked like a Heisman candidate, while at others he’s looked like a third string QB. Against a good Michigan defense (and yes, they are good this year – not 1997 or 2006 good, but they are good nonetheless) in the Big House I think Martinez will more closely resemble a third stringer than a Heisman candidate.

We all know Michigan’s weakest link is the pass offense, and that’s fine because Nebraska is not a team that is going to shut down our running game anyway. I’m looking for 300-plus yards rushing from Michigan this weekend. With Vincent Smith’s ankle still bothering him and the way Fitz Toussaint has asserted himself as Borges’ workhouse back, look for Fitz to get 25-30 carries. Illinois has a far better run defense (even after Michigan went off on them, they still have a top 10 overall defense) than Nebraska but that doesn’t mean I think he’ll go off for close to 200 yards again on his own. If he can average 5-6 yards per carry and get up around the 150 yard mark, it should take enough pressure off Denard to make his runs more effective.

Given Fitz’s performance last week – the second time this season he’s gone wild – and Denard’s ability to kill you on any play, I think Nebraska will have a tough time trying to defend the run. The threat of Denard is always there, but now with another guy to worry about it opens things up for Michigan.

I only caught highlights of last week’s game as I was out of town and had no access to a TV, but from what I saw, Michigan was ALL about running the ball. After the MSU play-calling debacle and then going 0-for-4 inside the Iowa 5-yard line with four straight passes, I think Borges is finally giving up on trying to pass the ball 25 times a game. Don’t get me wrong; I like Borges, but I think Denard needs to be throwing less and running more if we’re going to get to 10 or 11 wins this season (including the bowl game).

Michigan’s pass defense matches up very well with Nebraska’s pass offense and Michigan’s rush offense should overpower Nebraska’s rush defense. This game should come down to how Michigan’s run defense handles Martinez and Burkhead, both very capable runners. Michigan’s defense is better than people say, and of course we here at Maize And Go Blue are biased, but look at the numbers.

After what Greg Mattison called a complete game last week, I think Michigan will come out with that same intensity on defense. If Michigan can run the ball well and stop the run they win this game. However, I think they need to do BOTH in order to win. In the end, I think Michigan should be able to establish the run, and I think the defense will be fired up enough to keep Burkhead and Martinez out of the end zone often enough for Michigan to pull out a win heading into next week’s game against some team down south that cannot seem monitor its players very well.

Michigan 27 – Nebraska 21

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Chris (3) - On Saturday, the Wolverines welcome Big Ten newcomer Nebraska to the Big House for what should be a close, physical game.  The Cornhuskers come in with a 1,000-yard rusher in running back Rex Burkhead and have a dynamic run-pass threat in quarterback Taylor Martinez.  Both teams sport good defenses, although the vaunted “Blackshirt” D from Nebraska is eighth in the Big Ten in rushing yards, allowing 161 yards per game.  Michigan’s defense has played better each week of the season, to the point now where Defensive Coordinator Greg Mattison is creating confusion for every opposing offense that Michigan faces.

I believe that the key in this game will be the play of the QBs.  Whichever QB is able to limit his mistakes and make plays in the passing game will give his team a better chance to win.  I look for both offenses to try to open up the running game by using the pass.  If they can get the opposing defense to drop back off the line of scrimmage to respect the pass, the running game will open up.  This is where I see the advantage going to the Wolverines.  If Denard Robinson’s wrist is healthy enough to throw some accurate passes and gain yardage through the air, then I see an opportunity for Michigan to stay in the shotgun and pick up some chunks of yardage on the ground with the zone read.

If Offensive Coordinator Al Borges is looking for any pointers, he would be wise to check the tape from the Northwestern-Nebraska game.  While not the exact same type of option, Northwestern was able to spread the Cornhuskers out and get the ball both out on the edge, as well as up the middle.

With the Michigan defense bringing pressure from different directions on every play, I like them to contain the combo of Martinez and Burkhead.  This will force Nebraska to pass, and I believe that Michigan’s secondary has a slight advantage over a mediocre Nebraska receiving corps.  This is especially true with the pressure that Michigan’s front seven can get on Martinez.  Even though I think that Michigan has the advantage in this game, I still believe that the game will be close all game.  With Michigan playing at home where they have played their best all season, I like Michigan to win.

Michigan 24  - Nebraska 20

With the Big Ten title likely out of reach, barring an unlikely set of circumstances, Michigan has two chances left to prove its worth and improve its postseason bowl standing. Of course next weekend’s game is the one everyone is waiting for, but this week provides a unique opportunity to build on momentum while not overlooking the opponent.

#18 Michigan v. #16 Nebraska
	Saturday Nov. 19 12 p.m. ET ESPN
8-2 (4-2)	Record	8-2 (4-2)
Western Michigan 34-10 Notre Dame 35-31 Eastern Michigan 31-3 San Diego State 28-7 Minnesota 58-0 Northwestern 42-24 Purdue 36-14 Illinois 31-14	Wins	Chattanooga 40-7 Fresno State 42-29 Washington 51-38 Wyoming 38-14 Ohio State 34-27 Minnesota 41-14 #11 Mich. State 24-3 #12 Penn State 17-14
#23 Michigan State 14-28 Iowa 16-24	Losses	#7 Wisconsin 17-48 Northwestern 25-28
32.5	Scoring Offense	32.9
231.3	Rushing YPG	232.7
190.2	Passing YPG	171.4
421.5	Total Offense	404.1
15.5	Scoring Defense	22.2
127.4	Rush Defense YPG	161.3
190.5	Pass Defense YPG	190.7
317.9	Total Defense YPG	352.0
23	Takeaways	15
19	Giveaways	14
21/13	Sacks By/Allowed	15/12
62-of-126 (49%)	Third-down Conv.	66-of-147 (45%)
8-for-11 (77.8%)	Field Goals	16-for-19 (84.2%)
32.8	Net Punt Avg.	38.6

Nebraska comes to Ann Arbor for the first time as a Big Ten team, and for the first time since 1962, hoping to keep its own slight conference title game chances alive.

The last time the teams faced off was the 2005 Alamo Bowl when Michigan blew a 28-17 fourth quarter lead and fell 32-28. The Wolverines nearly produced a miracle ending, but the multi-lateral final play ended when tight end Tyler Ecker ran out of bounds at the Nebraska 16-yard line. Had he pitched it back to a trailing Steve Breaston, he likely would have scored the game-winning touchdown with no time remaining. But alas, Michigan finished that season 7-4.

Prior to that, Michigan and Nebraska shared the 2007 National Championship – Michigan winning the AP poll and Nebraska winning the Coaches. It was the last season before the Bowl Championship Series was established. Michigan fans are still salty about the split, knowing that the undefeated Wolverines led by Heisman Trophy winner Charles Woodson were the obvious best team in the nation that year and that the aura of the retiring Tom Osborne helped the ‘Huskers earn the split.

Tomorrow marks Michigan’s chance to redeem itself for those two instances, in addition to losing the 1962 meeting in Ann Arbor. Head Coach Brady Hoke and the team won’t say there’s any sort of revenge in the cards, but in the mind of the Maize and Blue faithful across the globe, Saturday is personal.

It won’t give either team, or directly cost either team, the conference crown, but a win would help ease the lingering pain of 2005 and 1997 and give Michigan fans a healthy dose of optimism heading into the season-ending duel with Ohio State.

Perhaps it’s good that it’s Nebraska coming to town this week instead of another Big Ten team of equal value, such as Penn State or Wisconsin, or even of lesser value such as Indiana or Minnesota. The  hype of the first ever Big Ten matchup with Nebraska, combined with the revenge factor and Nebraska’s style of offense will give Michigan a great tune-up for Ohio State without the emotional high or low that another rival or a bottom-feeder would produce.

And without further adieu, let’s take a look at the Nebraska Cornhuskers:

Quarterback:

Sophomore Taylor Martinez is an exciting player to watch. He’s similar to Denard Robinson in that he’s an explosive running that can take it to the house if he finds a crease, but he struggles in the passing game. His shot-put style throwing motion isn’t going to impress any NFL scouts, but despite his deficiencies, his running threat is too great to take him off the field.

Martinez and Burkhead account for three-fourths of Nebraska's offense (photo by Justin K. Aller, Getty Images)

This season, Martinez has completed 57.7 percent of his passes for 1,688 yards, 10 touchdowns, and seven interceptions. In the 48-17 loss to Wisconsin, he looked downright awful, completing 11-of-22 passes for 176 yards, no touchdowns and three interceptions, while rushing 20 times for 61 yards (3.1 yards per carry). However, in a win over Ohio State he went 16-of-22 for 191 yards, two touchdown, an interception and rushed 17 times for 102 yards (6.0 ypc) and a touchdown.

He has rushed for 768 yards this season, averaging five yards per carry, with nine rushing touchdowns.

Edge: Even

Running Backs:

The Cornhuskers feature one of the Big Ten’s best running backs in Rex Burkhead. He’s a big and powerful runner with enough burst to be a home run threat. He has rushed for at least 100 yards in six of the 10 games so far and has scored at least one touchdown in every game. He’s currently third in the Big Ten in rushing yards per game (107.2), behind only Wisconsin’s Montee Ball and Iowa’s Marcus Coker, but he’s second in touchdowns behind Ball with 14.

Burkhead is also a receiving threat out of the backfield. He has caught just 15 passes all season, but 10 of those came in two games (five each against Ohio State and Northwestern), and they tend to be big plays. Against Ohio State, with the ‘Huskers trailing by seven in the fourth, Burkhead caught a pass and went 30 yards for the game-tying touchdown. In a 24-3 win over Michigan State, Burkhead caught a 27-yard touchdown pass to put the icing on the cake late in the fourth.

Aside from Burkhead, Nebraska doesn’t really have another running back. Martinez is the team’s second-leading rusher, but the second-leading running back is freshman Braylon Heard who has just 25 carries for 114 yards and a touchdown on the season. A host of others have minimal carries for less than 100 yards each.

While Michigan’s Fitz Toussaint has come on strong in the last few games, Burkhead is more established at this point and fits perfectly with the ‘Huskers’ offense.

Edge: Nebraska

Receivers and Tight Ends:

Nebraska doesn’t pass a lot, but likes to spread the ball around when it does. Seven different players have 13 or more receptions on the season and four have two touchdowns apiece. The leading receiver is freshman Kenny Bell who has 23 receptions for 307 yards and two touchdowns, however, the most he’s had in a single game is 59 yards against Fresno State. Fellow freshman Jamal Turner has 15 receptions for 243 yards and had a five-catch, 84-yard performance against Wisconsin, but he hasn’t caught a pass in the past three games.

Sophomore Quincy Enunwa has caught 15 passes for 231 yards and two touchdowns, while junior tight end Kyler Reed has 13 receptions for 236 yards, but has yet to catch a touchdown pass.

Edge: Michigan

Offensive Line:

Nebraska features the nation’s 13th-best rushing offense, averaging 232.7 yards per game, which is roughly the same as Michigan’s. The ‘Huskes also rank 24th nationally in sacks allowed, so when Martinez does pass, the line protects him pretty well. However, like Michigan, that’s more of a reflection on Martinez’s slippery and elusive running ability than on actual pass protection.

Last week at Penn State, the same five linemen played every snap for Nebraska and held the talented Nittany Lion defensive front in check. Penn State, the Big Ten’s third-best at getting to the quarterback and fourth-best rush defense, recorded just one sack, and gave up 188 yards rushing to the ‘Huskers.

Linebacker Lavonte David (4) is the leading tackler and leader of the 'Husker defense

Edge: Even

Defensive Line:

The traditionally solid Nebraska defense has been anything but dominant this season, ranking in the middle of the pack in the Big Ten. The rush defense ranks 66th nationally and eighth in the Big Ten, giving up 161.3 yards per game on the ground, and 86th and ninth in sacks.

Junior Cameron Meredith leads the team in sacks with five, but the unit certainly misses All-American tackle Jared Crick, who is out for the season with a torn pectoral. It also lost tackle Thaddeus Randle, an expected key contributor to the line this season, to a knee injury. Even so, in Nebraska’s 24-3 win over Michigan State, the ‘Huskers were able to get to Kirk Cousins four times, and did so with just a four-man pass rush. That will be much harder to do against Michigan, however.

Edge: Michigan

Linebackers:

Nebraska’s top two tacklers are both linebackers, senior Lavonte David (97 tackles) and Junior Will Compton (64). At 6’1″ and 225 pounds, David plays more like a safety than an actual linebacker. He has good speed and is works well in coverage despite being undersized to stop the run. He fits perfectly into the Nebraska defense that doesn’t bring a lot of pressure outside of the line and likes to drop seven into coverage.

Junior Will Compton has come on strong in the past few weeks and had a 13-tackle performance against Penn State last week. He also had 15 tackles in a Week 2 win over Fresno State and he ranks third on the team with four tackles-for-loss. With the loss of Crick on the line, this is the strongest position group for Nebraska.

While Michigan’s linebackers have been improving with the emergence of freshmen Jake Ryan and Desmond Morgan, they’re still young.

Edge: Nebraska

Secondary:

Nebraska has a pretty solid secondary, especially in man coverage. The ‘Huskers rank 21st nationally in pass defense, allowing 190.7 yards per game through the air, virtually the exact same as what Michigan allows. The leader of the unit is Alfonzo Dennard. The senior has established himself as a true lockdown corner and has seen his NFL Draft stock rise this season. He helped shut down Michigan State’s B.J. Cunningham, holding him without a catch.

Opposite Dennard, sophomore Andrew Green struggled early in the season, but has come on strong as of late. A host of others rotate in and out and fit well in Nebraska’s man zone coverage.

Edge: Even

Special Teams:

Junior Brett Maher handles both punting and kicking duties for the ‘Huskers and he’s a good one, despite this being his first season as a starter. Kicking-wise, he has made 16-of-19 field goals with a long of 50 and has made good on all 38 extra points. Punting-wise, Maher averages 45.4 yards per punt, with a net average of 38.6, which ranks 27th nationally. By comparison, Michigan ranks 112th with a net average of 32.9.

In the return game, Nebraska has one of the best kick returners in the nation in Ameer Abdullah. The freshman running back averages 31 yards per kickoff return and returned one for a touchdown against Fresno State. He also averages just over eight yards per punt return. Both of those give Nebraska’s offense good starting field position.

Edge: Nebraska

Brady Hoke can point, but Bo Pelini will point right through your soul

Coaching:

Bo Pelini is a former Buckeye. He grew up in Youngstown, Ohio, played safety at Ohio State from 1987-90, and even served as co-captain his senior year. This week, he tried to downplay any feelings he has towards Michigan: “I wouldn’t say I had a venom for Michigan. I actually visited Michigan. You go to Ohio State, and it was such a tremendous rivalry, that game took on a lot of extra meaning because it meant so much each and every year.”  Of course, it didn’t help his case that Michigan beat him three out of his for seasons.

As a coach, he’s defensive-minded, having coached secondary and linebackers in various NFL positions, as well as being defensive coordinator at Oklahoma and LSU prior to being named head coach in Lincoln. This year’s Cornhusker defense is, statistically, one of the worst he’s had in his career as a DC, second only to the 2008 unit that gave up 29 points per game.

Edge: Even

Intangibles:

As mentioned in the intro above, Michigan is looking for revenge from the 2005 Alamo Bowl and the shared 1997 National Championship, whether Hoke will admit it or not. This season, Nebraska has played much better at home than on the road, and traveling to Ann Arbor for the first time since 1962 won’t be easy. The ‘Huskers’ offense has averaged 36 points per game in Lincoln this season, but just 28.2 away from Lincoln.

Being Nebraska’s first year in the Big Ten, it’s almost like playing a full season of non-conference games, since the ‘Huskers aren’t used to visiting these stadiums like the rest of the conference is. That’s definitely an advantage for Michigan.

The weather projects temperatures around 50, with the real feel in the mid-40s. There shouldn’t be any rain, or sun for that matter, so it should feel just like a mid-November Big Ten matchup.

Edge: Michigan

Prediction:

Michigan and Nebraska are pretty similar teams this year: run first offenses with mobile quarterbacks who struggle with the pass, and good but not great defenses. However, I think the matchups are pretty favorable to Michigan. Defensive Coordinator Greg Mattison has done a phenomenal job this season at coaching up the defense to play above its head. He has virtually the same defense that allowed 35.2 points and 451 yards per game last season giving up just 15.5 points (5th nationally) and 318 yards (17th) per game this season.

Against mobile quarterbacks, Michigan has done well this season. After struggling to stop Northwestern’s spread in the first half, Michigan adjusted and shut the Wildcats down in the second. Last week, Michigan shut down Illinois’ spread offense and Nathan Scheelhaase. However, Nebraska’s offense is more diverse than either of those.

Nebraska doesn’t throw the ball a lot, averaging just under 23 attempts per game, but has started to throw more in the last two games. In the loss to Northwestern two weeks ago, the ‘Huskers put the ball in the air 37 times, and last week, 26 times, after throwing just 13 passes against Michigan State. Martinez doesn’t have a very good completion rate, but when he does throw, it’s usually after the ‘Huskers have used the run to suck up the secondary and create mismatches in the passing game.

I think it will take the first half for Michigan to figure out the Nebraska offense. As Mattison said on Tuesday, “They’re like three offenses in one.” The combination of power rushing with Burkhead, option attack with Martinez, the passing game, and the hurry-up pace will not be easy to stop.

Michigan will have to score enough early on to avoid letting the game get away in the first half, and I like how Michigan’s offense matches up against the Nebraska defense. The emergence of Toussaint in the past few games gives Michigan a solid rushing attack aside from just Denard Robinson. Nebraska has a lot of speed on defense but is undersized in the middle, so look for Michigan to run right at the ‘Huskers and control the clock.

Nebraska’s defense has struggled against mobile quarterbacks Kain Colter, Braxton Miller, and Russell Wilson, so look for a big day from Robinson once the inside running game with Toussaint has been established.

Another factor in the game is third downs. Nebraska’s defense is in the bottom third nationally in third down defense, allowing a conversion rate of over 42 percent. With an emphasis on the running game, and a lackluster Nebraska pass rush, if Michigan can keep from making mistakes on its own, it should be able to move the ball fairly well.

I think the game will be tight throughout and as long as Michigan doesn’t fall behind big in the first half, Michigan should be able to outlast the ‘Huskers in second.

Michigan 33 – Nebraska 27

Good to Know:

Michigan leads all-time 3-2-1 and each game has alternated the winner (UM win, tie, UM win, NU win, UM win, NU win), so if the pattern holds true, Michigan should win this one

This game marks the first regular season meeting since 1962. The teams faced off in the 2005 Alamo Bowl and the 1985 Fiesta Bowl

The 37 rushing yards Michigan allowed last week mark the fewest allowed by Michigan in a game since giving up 26 against Indiana in 2006

Michigan’s defense has given up 16 or fewer first downs in each of the last four games and in five of six Big Ten contests

Michigan’s defense has forced multiple turnovers in eight of 10 games this season and the 23 turnovers forced rank first in the Big Ten and 14th nationally

Michigan has outscored opponents 263-99 after the first quarter this season and 162-70 in the second half

Brady Hoke faced Nebraska in 2007 as head coach at Ball State. The Cardinals nearly upset the Cornhuskers, falling 41-40

Record Watch:

With 2 passing touchdowns, Denard Robinson will tie Tom Brady (1996-99) for 7th place on Michigan’s career list. With 4, he will tie Todd Collins (1991-94) for 6th With a 100-yard passing game, Denard will tie Steve Smith (1980-83) for 7th in career 100-yard passing games. With 110 rushing yards, Denard will pass Billy Taylor (1969-71) for 8th on Michigan’s career rushing list With 3 rushing touchdowns, Denard will move into a tie with Rick Leach (1975-78) for 5th place in career rushing touchdowns With 13 receiving yards, Junior Hemingway will pass Marcus Knight (1996-99) for 18th in career receiving yards and with 14, he will pass Vince Bean (1981-84) for 17th. Roy Roundtree can pass Jim Smith (1973-76) for 15th with 28 receiving yards, and with 37, he can pass Steve Breaston (2003-06) for 14th.

Ten weeks into the season and we finally have our first repeat winner – Hazel Parker! He won Week 6, and this week he decided two is better than one. While he wasn’t the closest on any one question this week, he was the most consistent. He was just 43 away from correctly picking the total combined yards, 20.3 away from Denard’s quarterback rating, 13 yards off the longest play, and 13 points away from the total points. For the win, he gets a $15 gift card to The MDen.

Chris12qb was close behind, only six points away. He was just 24 yards off the total combined yards, but what did him in was Denard’s quarterback rating. Umichfan1 was only 4 yards away from the total combined yards, but apparently misread question two to be A.J. Jenkins receiving yards instead of receptions and touchdowns. He still remains in the overall lead, however.

Bomoho was the closest to total points scored, predicting 46, just one away from the actual of 45. JustJeepGear.com was the closest (just one away) to the longest play, which was Fitz Toussaint’s 65-yard run on the second play of the game.

This week, Michigan welcomes Nebraska to the Big House for the first time as a Big Ten adversary. The Cornhuskers feature a dangerous running game with quarterback Taylor Martinez and 1,000-yard rusher Rex Burkhead. Can Michigan slow them down? Here are this week’s questions:

Michigan got back on track with a win against Illinois on Saturday.  From where I was sitting, they did it by getting back to the basics on offense and with a stingy, no-nonsense defense led by cornerback J.T. Floyd and the defensive line.

The Michigan defense stifled the Illini running game and sacked quarterback Nathan Scheelhaase four times (photo by John T. Greilick, The Detroit News)

Although not in the form of traditional Michigan offenses of the past, which is okay as long as they are moving the ball and scoring points, Michigan was able to score points on an Illini defense which was ranked top-10 in the country coming into the game.  Yes, they were helped out by the defense, which stopped the Illinois offense for a number of three-and-outs and gave the Wolverines good field position all day.  But that is how it’s supposed to be right?  That’s how good teams win games.

I thought the first half was better than the second – not a surprising statement, really, considering that Denard Robinson went out with an injury and Devin Gardner had to come in and finish the game.  But the first half was so good because Offensive Coordinator Al Borges finally seemed to realize that the ball needed to get into Denard’s hands for them to have an offense.  It was because Denard was primarily in the shotgun with running back Fitzgerald Toussaint next to him that they were able to move the ball so consistently and dominate a good Illinois defense.  The Illinois defense had to respect the running ability of both Denard and Toussaint, which opened holes for Toussaint as he ran for a career high 192 yards and a touchdown.

In the second half, Borges seemed to go away from running Denard so much, which I understand if he was starting to get banged up.  Since Denard did go out with what looked like a hand injury (which happened on a pass play, not a run), I imagine that Borges was trying to save him somewhat for the remaining two games.  Whatever the case, the offense was better when he was in and running the show from the shotgun.  Gardner made some nice plays when he came in, but he looked just as inaccurate at times as Denard has been, and he doesn’t present the running threat that Denard does.

Michigan's defense harassed Nathan Scheelhaase all day, holding him to just 14 rushing yards on 16 carries and a 51.6 percent completion rate - both his lowest of the season (photo by the IlliniHQ.com)

I think that it’s only right that I mention the Michigan defense here as well.  Defensive Coordinator Greg Mattison did a great job of calling a defensive scheme that would confuse Illinois quarterback Nathan Scheelhaase.  I imagine Scheelhaase came to the line to take the snap every play and not having any idea where the defense was going to come from, as Mattison ran a number of zone blitz schemes that made it impossible for Scheelhaase to get a good pre-snap read.

The pressure on the quarterback and running game also helped out the Michigan secondary, as they were able to contain Illinois standout receiver A.J. Jenkins to eight catches for 103 yards, but no touchdowns.  Jenkins was the only source of offensive production for the Illini, and while gaining over 100 yards doesn’t sound great, no other Illinois receiver did anything special and the Illinois running game was non-existent as well.  I’ll take that all day.  Congrats to those guys on D for a job well done.

Going forward, Michigan has two tough games remaining, against Nebraska and Ohio State.  However, the silver lining in this is that they are both at the Big House, where Michigan has played tough all year.  If the Michigan defense can play like they did this past weekend in those games, I think they have a decent chance of winning those games.  Neither Nebraska nor Ohio State have potent offenses.  The key will be if Borges handcuffs the Michigan offense by trying to be too cute by running all kinds of “trick” plays and by shuffling Denard in and out of the lineup.  If they want to win these games, they are absolutely going to need to keep the ball in Denard’s hands and let him take this offense to the end zone.

Michigan traveled to Champaign on Saturday looking to gain momentum for the season’s final stretch, and came away with a lot of it in shutting down the Illini offense en route to a 31-14 win.

In the first quarter, Michigan picked up right where it left off in last season’s 67-65 triple-overtime win over Illinois, racking up 186 yards and two touchdowns. For the next two-plus quarters, however, it looked like we had traveled back in time to 2008 with Nick Sheridan and Steven Threet at the helm. Fortunately, the defense played like the defense of old, holding Illinois to just 214 total yards – most coming in comeback mode during the fourth quarter – and 14 points to preserve the win.

#22 Michigan 31 – Illinois 14
	Final Stats
31	Final Score	14
8-2 (4-2)	Record	6-4 (2-4)
362	Total Yards	214
223	Net Rushing Yards	37
139	Net Passing Yards	177
14	First Downs	15
3	Turnovers	3
4-29	Penalties – Yards	4-25
4-137	Punts – Yards	9-374
32:45	Time of Possession	27:15
6-of-14	Third Down Conversions	5-of-17
0-for-1	Fourth Down Conversions	2-for-2
4-49	Sacks By – Yards	1-8
1-for-2	Field Goals	0-for-0
4-for-4	PATs	2-for-2
3-for-6	Red Zone Scores – Chances	2-for-2

Michigan lost the toss, got the ball first, and wasted no time getting down to business. On the second play of the game, Fitz Toussaint broke a 65-yard run to the Illinois 15-yard line. Two plays later, Denard Robinson took it in from nine yards out to put Michigan on top 7-0.

After a pair of Illinois’ three-and-outs sandwiched around one by Michigan, the Wolverines had another good drive brewing until Denard fumbled at the Illini 23. But the Michigan defense forced another three-and-out and got the ball back in Illini territory.

As the second quarter began, Robinson found the end zone again, putting Michigan ahead 14-0. Illinois finally picked up its first first down of the game on its next possession, but was still forced to punt. Michigan marched down to the Illini 2-yard line, but just like the end to last week’s loss to Iowa, Michigan was stuffed on four straight plays to turn the ball over on downs.

Michigan got it right back, however, when Jordan Kovacs stuck his helmet on the ball and knocked it away from Illini running back Jason Ford. Thomas Gordon recovered on the Illini 13-yard line putting Michigan in prime position to take a three-score lead. But three players later, on 3rd-and-18, Robinson was sacked by Whitney Mercilus and fumbled it back to Illinois.

Michigan’s defense rose to the occasion and forced another three-and-out, and then drove back into Illini territory with a chance to put some more points on the board before the half. But Brendan Gibbons missed a 38-yard field goal and Michigan went into the half up by 14.

Both teams traded punts to start the second half, so Illinois brought in backup quarterback Reilly O’Toole to replace Nathan Scheelhaase and try to provide a spark, but Michigan forced another punt.

Michigan got its next big break when, after going three-and-out, Illinois returnman Ryan Lankford fumbled and John McColgan recovered at the Illini 32. Devin Gardner replaced Robinson and led Michigan to a 27-yard field goal to go ahead 17-0.

Illinois answered with its first good drive of the game, going 75 yards in 11 plays, capped off by a 15-yard Scheelhaase touchdown run.

Fitz Toussaint rushed for 192 yards, the most by a Michigan running back since Mike Hart in 2007 (photo by Getty Images)

Michigan punted the ball back to Illinois, but cornerback J.T. Floyd made perhaps the biggest play of the game, picking off Scheelhaase and returning it 43 yards to the Illini 22. Three plays later, Gardner connected with Martavious Odoms for a 27-yard touchdown to put Michigan ahead 24-7.

Illinois wouldn’t go away, however, marching 80 yards in 18 plays for a 1-yard Jason Ford touchdown run to pull within 10.

It was as close as the Illini would get, as Michigan recovered the onside kick and Toussaint reeled off a 13-yard run followed by a 27-yard touchdown run for the final score of 31-14.

Offensively, Toussaint was the man of the day, rushing for 192 yards and a touchdown on 27 carries. It was the most rushing yards in a game by a Michigan running back (not including Denard Robinson) since Mike Hart ran for 215 against Eastern Michigan on Oct. 6, 2007.

The big story, however, was the play of the Michigan defense. While the offense moved the ball well in the first quarter, it struggled to score points, and the defense did its part to keep Illinois from taking advantage. Defensive coordinator Greg Mattison used a great scheme to disrupt the Illini offense that features the Big Ten’s best receiver and racked up 561 yards and 65 points against Michigan last season. A.J. Jenkins still managed eight receptions for 103 yards, but he was targeted 18 times, and Michigan corners Floyd and Blake Countess did a great job of keeping him from beating them.

Michigan’s defense held Illinois’ usually powerful rushing attack to just 37 yards on 33 attempts (1.1 yards per carry) and forced three turnovers.

Robinson left the game in the third quarter with a hand injury after completing 6-of-10 passes for 92 yards, but Hoke said after the game that he could have returned. Gardner completed 2-of-5 passes for 47 yards and a touchdown.

Michigan hosts 17th-ranked Nebraska next Saturday at noon before ending the regular season with The Game on Thanksgiving weekend.

None of us picked Michigan to lose to Iowa last week, but Chris was the closest to the actual score. He was only one point off Iowa’s final score, and the only one of us to predict Michigan would score below 35 points. But even he was almost two touchdowns too confident.

This week, we’re fighting for this sweet vintage sweater and an indian headdress. Wear them both together and you’ll be the coolest person in Champaign.

The picks:

Justin (1) – I said in the game preview that this is a very important game for Michigan. A win gives Michigan much-needed momentum heading into the final two games against Nebraska and Ohio State. A loss will produce the sinking feeling that has plagued the program late in the season the past two years.

Illinois runs a lot, and with the predicted gusty weather in Champaign, expect a lot of running by Jason Ford and Nathan Scheelhaase. Ford is a tough downhill runner, but he’s not the only back the Illini have. Scheelhaase can run the option with Troy Pollard and Donovonn Young, so expect to see quite a bit of that to take advantage of Michigan’s inability to cut off the edge. If the run game sucks up Michigan’s safeties, look for some deep balls to A.J. Jenkins, the Big Ten’s best receiver.

Offensively, Michigan has to pick up yards on first down. I hope offensive coordinator Al Borges has a a short, quick passing game in the plans because dropping Denard back in the pocket is certain death against this Illinois pass rush. If Michigan can consistently stay away from third-and-longs, it should be a good day for the offense.

Expect a close and fairly low-scoring game, but I think Michigan will be able to get back on track and avoid another late-season disaster.

Michigan 24 – Illinois 20

________________________________________________________________________________________

Quarterback Nathan Scheelhaase is Illinois' leading rusher (photo by Jonathan Daniel, Getty Images)

Josh (3) - After starting strong at 6-0, Illinois has fallen on some tough times. Three straight losses to Ohio State, Purdue and at Penn State have the Illini hurting and looking for a way to get back on track. Michigan, fresh off a loss to Iowa, is the team Illinois sees as a step back in the right direction.

The Illini feature a balanced attack at just over 200 yards passing per game and just under 200 yards passing per game. Quarterback Nathan Scheelhaase is their best player on offense, but more for his running than passing, a la Denard Robinson. Scheelhaase leads the team in rushing with 501 yards but is averaging a less than stellar 3.7 yards per carry. Running back Jason Ford isn’t a burner and has yet to gain 500 yards for the season but he is a big back at 235lbs. and we saw how Michigan struggled with a big back last week. Jason Ford is not Marcus Coker but he could pose some problems for the front seven of the Wolverines.

Defensive end Whitney Mercilus leads the B1G Ten in tackles for loss. In fact, he’s third in the country in that category. He also leads the conference and the country in forced fumbles at six. He, along with other DE Michael Buchanan, are big reasons the Illini boast a stout run defense, allowing only 102 yards per game. This is definitely a defense that could pose some issues for Michigan’s backs.

On offense, as I mentioned before, QB Nathan Scheelhaase is the Illini’s best player but his running overshadows his throwing. However, he has been sacked over 20 times thus far, and his measly 3.7 yards per carry average might allude to an inability to block and escape pressure.

After facing one of the conference’s two best WR’s last week, Michigan gets to face the other one. Illinois has a pretty good receiver, A.J. Jenkins, to complement its QB. Jenkins is averaging 7.5 catches per game and over 100 yards and has already gone over 1,000 yards for the season. He has seven touchdowns on the year and no other Illini receiver has more than one. If Michigan can keep tabs on Jenkins they might be able to slow him down.

Michigan bounced back after its first loss of the season and will look to do the same after last week’s heartbreaker at Iowa. Michigan played a terrible game and was still almost able to pull off the comeback. Look for Hoke’s crew to have regrouped and gotten ready for this game. Offensive Coordinator Al Borges has had some questionable play calling in the two losses, including four straight passes inside the five-yard line last week to end the game. If Borges can get back to calling plays that put the best players in the best position to help the team win, then Michigan will come out on top.

To me, this game is really a toss up. It wouldn’t surprise me to see either team win, and being in Champaign, I am slightly inclined to give the Illini the edge, especially given the way Michigan has played on the road. I don’t think Michigan’s offense, which seems to have regressed as the season wears on, is capable of putting up a ton of points on this defense. So it all comes down to how Michigan’s defense handles Illinois’ offense.

Illinois DE Whitney Mercilus leads the nation with 11.5 sacks (photo by Andy Lyons, Getty Images)

I think the second half collapses of the last two seasons still linger in the minds of the seniors and a loss this week would really put them in a bad spot, especially with the last two games against Nebraska and Ohio State. The Illini have a far superior defense but their offense doesn’t really scare me. I think Michigan pulls off the win in a close one and gets its eighth win of the season, equaling RichRod’s total in his first two years combined.

Michigan 24 – Illinois 21

____________________________________

Chris (3) - After last week’s debacle when Michigan couldn’t pick up three yards for a touchdown to give them a chance to tie the game against Iowa, I couldn’t even think about Michigan football until today.  Talk about a frustrating and ridiculous set of play calls by Offensive Coordinator Al Borges.  Let’s hope that this week Borges puts the ball in Denard’s hands and allows him to go win the game for the Wolverines!  Seriously.  There are only three regular season games remaining.  There’s no reason to protect Denard.  Give him the ball and let him do his thing.

Anyway, we move on from last week to this week’s game at Illinois.  This is going to be another one of those games that is hard to get an accurate reading on the teams.  Both teams started out the season strong and have fallen off the pace over the last three-to-four weeks.  Both have offenses which are struggling to find an identity lately.  And both teams have defenses which are generally strong, but give up big plays sometimes when it hurts.

Illinois’ strength is their 6th-ranked defense.  Defensive end Whitney Mercilus leads the nation in sacks and fumbles forced.  The Illinois linebackers are good and the secondary returned three of four starters from last year’s unit.  They are giving up around 17 points per game.

Offensively, the Illini have multi-threat quarterback Nathan Scheelhaase leading the way.  He will present a dynamic run/pass threat for the Michigan defense to contain, because unlike a lot of “running” QBs, Scheelhaase can throw the ball as well.  It doesn’t hurt to have Wide Receiver A.J. Jenkins to throw to either.  Jenkins has over 1,000 yards receiving and 7 TDs already this year.

I see this game as a toss-up.  Without knowing if Borges will pull his head out of his butt and call a better game, it is difficult to predict how the Michigan offense will play.  My hope is that Head Coach Brady Hoke will get the team ready to play again this week after the loss to Iowa in the same way that he did after the loss to MSU.  Against Purdue, the Wolverines played inspired on both sides of the ball and they will need to do that again to win against Illinois.  The truth is, Michigan still has an outside shot at winning their Division and playing for the Big Ten Championship if they can take care of business and get some help from the teams around them.  I’m sure that’s a point which Hoke brought to the team’s attention this week.

I think this game will be a low-scoring, back and forth kind of game.  I also expect there to be a decent amount of turnovers, probably at least two per team.  My key stat for this game is that Illinois Head Coach Ron Zook is 1-7 at Illinois following a bye week.  Because of that and my expectation for Michigan to be re-focused after last week’s loss, I am going to predict the Wolverines to win on Saturday.

Michigan 21 – Illinois 20

[Ed.: Sorry for the lateness on this one. I've been fighting a cold and the medicine knocked me out last night while I was trying to write the preview. I've also been in Pittsburgh for work the past couple of days and haven't had much free time. Darn real job!]

Michigan finds itself in a familiar position as the last two seasons. After racing out to a 6-0 record, Michigan has dropped two of its last three games, to Michigan State and Iowa – both on the road. In the last two seasons, it kept going downhill, ultimately leading to Rich Rodriguez’s dismissal. This year is beginning to look no different, but Michigan has a chance to change that tomorrow.

#24 Michigan v. Illinois
	Saturday Nov. 12 3:30 p.m. ET ESPN
7-2 (3-2)	Record	6-3 (2-3)
Western Michigan 34-10 Notre Dame 35-31 Eastern Michigan 31-3 San Diego State 28-7 Minnesota 58-0 Northwestern 42-24 Purdue 36-14	Wins	Arkansas State 33-15 S. Dakota State 56-3 #22 Arizona State 17-14 Western Michigan 23-20 Northwestern 38-35 Indiana 41-20
#23 Michigan State 14-28 Iowa 16-24	Losses	Ohio State 7-17 Purdue 14-21 #19 Penn State 7-10
32.7	Scoring Offense	26.2
232.2	Rushing YPG	198.4
195.9	Passing YPG	204.1
428.1	Total Offense	402.6
15.7	Scoring Defense	17.2
137.4	Rush Defense YPG	102.9
192.0	Pass Defense YPG	177.2
329.4	Total Defense YPG	280.1
20	Takeaways	16
16	Giveaways	19
17/12	Sacks By/Allowed	31/25
56-of-112 (50%)	Third-down Conv.	65-of-133 (49%)
7-for-9 (77.8%)	Field Goals	7-for-8 (87.5%)
32.9	Net Punt Avg.	33.8

With a pair of tough home games to close the season, tomorrow is a must-win for Brady Hoke’s squad. A win would give Michigan confidence heading back to Ann Arbor to face Nebraska and Ohio State. A loss, however, would put the pressure on Michigan to avoid ending the season on a four-game skid and finishing with a 7-5 record – identical to last year’s regular season record. That scenario would be a tough pill to swallow for Michigan supporters that expected the coaching change to yield better results, especially with so much returning talent.

Fortunately for Michigan, Illinois is on a slide of its own. The Illini began the season 6-0 and was ranked as high as 16th, but has dropped three straight, to Ohio State, Purdue, and Penn State. The Illini offense that averaged 34.6 points per game all but disappeared in the last three, averaging just 9.3.

Everybody remembers last season’s titanic show of offense – or lack of defense – in which Michigan won 67-65 in three overtimes. This time, both teams actually enter with respectable defenses – Michigan’s ranked 7th nationally, giving up 15.7 points per game, and Illinois’ ranked 13th nationally, allowing 17.2.

Something’s gotta give, so let’s take a look at the matchups. This week, we’re just going to look at Illinois’ position groups since we all know who Michigan has.

Quarterback:

Nathan Scheelhaase is a talented and dangerous runner. In fact, he’ll give Michigan a good practice for Taylor Martinez and Braxton Miller in the final two games. He’s the Illini’s leading rusher with 501 yards on 137 carries (just 3.7 yards per carry) and five touchdowns. Through the air, he completes 63.9 percent of his passes for 1,687 yards, 12 touchdowns and five interceptions. In other words, he’s no slouch.

Edge: Michigan

Running Backs:

Senior Jason Ford is the featured back, trailing Scheelhaase by just nine rushing yards despite 12 fewer carries. He leads the team in rushing touchdowns with six, and at 6’1″ and 235 pounds, he’s a load to bring down. He had his best game of the season two weeks ago against Penn State, rushing 24 times for 100 yards.

A couple other backs have gotten carries as well. Senior Troy Pollard has a pair of 100-yard games this season, against South Dakota State and Western Michigan. He averages 8.1 yards per carry. Freshman Donovonn Young has four touchdowns and recorded a 100-yard game against Western Michigan as well.

Edge: Illinois

Receivers and Tight Ends:

The best receiver in the Big Ten resides in Champagne. Senior A.J. Jenkins leads the conference with 68 receptions for 1,030 yards. He also has seven touchdowns. He terrorized Northwestern to the tune of 268 yards and three touchdowns on 12 receptions. He also caught six for 182 and two TDs against Indiana.

However, Jenkins is as much of a one-man show as you can possibly get. The next leading receiver on the team is sophomore Spencer Harris, who has 22 receptions for 189 yards and a touchdown. Two others – Darius Millines and Ford – have over 100 yards on the season, but that’s about it. Tight end Evan Wilson has just seven catches all season, but three have gone for touchdowns.

Edge: Even

Offensive Line:

Illinois has given up 25 sacks, third worst in the Big Ten, and has paved the way for the conference’s 5th-best rush attack. The Illini might be without juniro guard Hugh Thornton who had knee surgery during the bye week. Junior Tyler Sands, a former high school All-American may get his first start in his place. That should certainly be a hinderance for the Illini, since bout sixty percent of the offense is through the run.

Edge: Michigan

A.J. Jenkins is the Illini receiving corps (photo by Andy Lyons, Getty Images)

Defensive Line:

This is a major source of concern for Michigan. Illinois ranks third nationally in sacks with 31. The main guy is Whitney Mercilus, who 16.5 tackles-for-loss and leads the nation with 11.5 sacks. He has recorded at least one sack in all but two games – South Dakota State and Purdue. But he’s not one man show. Michael Buchanan has five sacks and 10.5 tackles-for-loss.

Edge: Illinois

Linebackers:

Jonathan Brown and Ian Thomas have a combined five sacks and are the team’s leading tacklers with 69 and 55, respectively. Illinois ranks 15th nationally against the run, giving up just 102.89 yards per game and just 2.7 yards per carry. That doesn’t bode well for Michigan’s run game on a day in which the wind looks to be a major factor.

Edge: Illinois

Secondary:

Illinois has also done well this season with its pass defense, ranking eighth nationally, allowing 177 yards per game through the air. Much of that is a result of the pass rush, but the secondary is certainly worthy as well. Defensive backs Terry Hawthorne and Trulon Henry each have a couple of interceptions. Henry is sometimes used as a linebacker in defensive coordinator Vic Koennig’s defense.  The unit has allowed just one 100-yard receiver all season, Western Michigan’s Jordan White, who caught 14 passes for 132 yards and a touchdown.

Edge: Even

Special Teams:

Kicker Derek Dimke has connected on 7-of-8 field goals this season with a long of 49 and converted all 27 extra points. His only miss was the “doink” off the upright in overtime against Penn State. Punter Justin DuVernois has booted 43 punts for an average of 37.6 yards. One aspect that Illinois has been horrific at is the return game. The Illini rank 118th and 119th nationally in punt and kick returns, which certainly doesn’t help with field position.

Edge: Michigan

Coaching:

Ron Zook has been on the hot seat since he left Florida. He consistently pulls in solid recruiting classes but that hasn’t translated into wins. He’s always been viewed as a poor game management coach, especially when he goes for two because he forgets what the score is.

Edge: Michigan

Intangibles:

Michigan hasn’t fared well in road games the past few years, and this year is no different. Two of the three road trips so far have resulted in losses, and Michigan’s worst offensive performances of the year. Illinois has been strong at home, it’s only loss coming to Ohio State. The weather is calling for sustained wins around 19 miles per hour with gusts up into the 40s. That should favor the run game, which both teams excel at. However, Illinois does a better job stopping it.

Edge: Illinois

Prediction:

Both teams are on a slide right now but the pressure is on Michigan. With tough home games against Nebraska and Ohio State remaining, this one is virtually a must win to gain back some momentum heading into those games. A loss would undo much of the goodwill created early in the season about Brady Hoke, fair or not. It’s his first year at Michigan, but with so many returning starters, if Michigan slides at the end of the season like it did the past two years, questions will begin creeping up about whether keeping Rich Rodriguez would have been the better choice.

Illinois runs a shotgun-heavy spread run offense. Given Michigan’s inability to cut off the edge so far this season, look for Illinois to use the option and try to get to the edge a lot. If that happens, and Michigan’s safeties start creeping up, watch out for a couple of deep balls to Jenkins.

When Michigan has the ball, staying out of third-and-long situations is a must. If Denard is put in obvious passing situations, it could be a long day for the Michigan offense and the pressure Illinois will bring could force some of the bad Denard throws we see every every too often. If Michigan can counteract Mercilus’ rush and pick up chunks of yards on first and second down, it could move the ball pretty well.

Regardless, I think we’re looking at a close and fairly low-scoring game that will come down to which team takes better care of the ball.

Michigan 24 – Illinois 20

Good to Know:

Michigan leads the all-time series 67-23-2, including 40-6-2 in the last 48. Michigan is 33-12-1 in Champaign

Michigan ranks 2nd in Big Ten play in point differential (plus-76), has allowed the second-fewest points (90), and has scored the third-most (166)

Opponents have converted just 29.5 percent of third downs against Michigan’s defense this season (18-of-61)

Last week was the first game all season the Michigan defense did not force a turnover. UM ranks second in the Big Ten and 17th nationally in turnovers forced.

Michigan is tied for first nationally in red zone defense (18-of-28, 64 percent)

Record Watch:

With 2 passing touchdowns, Denard Robinson will tie Tom Brady (1996-99) for 7th place on Michigan’s career list. With 4, he will tie Todd Collins (1991-94) for 6th With 9 passing yards, Denard will pass Brian Griese (1994-97) for 8th in career passing yards. With a 100-yard passing game, Denard will tie Steve Smith (1980-83) for 7th in career 100-yard passing games. With 140 rushing yards, Denard will pass Billy Taylor (1969-71) for 8th on Michigan’s career rushing list With 1 rushing touchdown, Denard will move into a tie with Tom Harmon (1938-40) and Billy Taylor (1969-71) for 7th place. With 2, he will reach Steve Smith (1980-83) for 6th With 37 receiving yards, Junior Hemingway will pass Jim Mandich (1967-69) for 19th in career receiving yards. With 56, he can pass Marcus Knight (1996-99) for 18th and with 57, he will pass Vince Bean (1981-84) for 17th. Roy Roundtree can pass Jim Smith (1973-76) for 15th with 28 receiving yards, and with 37, he can pass Steve Breaston (2003-06) for 14th.

[Ed.: With basketball season starting on Friday, stay tuned for a basketball version of the 5-Spot Challenge sometime this week]

Congratulations to hottiebobottie for becoming our ninth different winner this season, and as far as I know, the first female winner. She wins a $15 gift card to the M Den so she can gear up for the rest of the season.

Question 3 is what won it, as she was only three yards away from correctly predicting Michigan’s total yards (323). She also correctly picked Iowa’s point total, as did previous winners myrick55 and umichfan1.

The1tab nearly became our first repeat winner, but fell just four points short of hottiebobottie. Bomoho was just one off of correctly predicting Marvin McNutt’s receiving yards (101), while lukelukeluke was the closest (10 away) to Marcus Coker’s rushing total of 132. Not a single person predicted just two total turnovers, although not surprising since it was the first game all season that Michigan’s defense hasn’t forced a turnover.

We’re still looking for our first repeat winner of the season, and as the season winds down, there are plenty of contestants within striking distance of the top spot. To view the overall standings, click here.

This week, Michigan visits Illinois for a rematch of last season’s triple-overtime thriller, which was virtually the exact opposite of Saturday night’s LSU-Alabama game. This year, both teams feature much-improved defenses and Michigan needs the win to gain momentum heading into a tough final two games.

Here are this week’s picks: