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Posts Tagged ‘First Look’

First Look: Purdue

Monday, September 18th, 2017


Michigan’s offense struggled for the second week in a row but defense and special teams helped the Wolverines to another double-digit victory. Michigan closed out the non-conference slate with five offensive touchdowns, three defensive touchdowns, one special teams touchdown, 11 field goals, and a safety. In other words, the special teams has scored 48 points, the offense has scored 30, and the defense 20.

This Saturday, Michigan faces a stern test in its Big Ten conference opener in West Lafayette. Raise your hand if you thought you’d hear that sentence prior to the season. No one? Ok, let’s take a look at how the team’s compare through the first fourth of the season.

Purdue & Michigan team stats comparison
Offense Defense
Average Rank Average Rank Average Rank Average Rank
35.7 43rd 32.7 57th PPG 19.7 41st 14.7 24th
519 598 Rush Yds 389 247
173.0 63rd 199.3 41st Rush/Gm 129.7 53rd 82.3 9th
4.5 4.7 Rush Avg 4.1 2.3
860 608 Pass Yds 734 377
286.7 35th 202.7 84th Pass/Gm 244.7 83rd 125.7 12th
1,379 1,206 Total Off. 1,123 624
459.7 45th 402.0 72nd Total Off./Gm 374.3 68th 208.0 5th
13.5 120th 18.0 94th KR Avg 22.2 94th 15.4 14th
2.6 98th 14.8 18th PR Avg 9.0 87th 2.0 28th
34:35 12th 31:25 45th Avg TOP 25:25 28:35
40% 69th 34% 102nd 3rd Down% 35% 50th 24% 13th
8-40 98th 8-41 98th Sacks-Yds 1-7 129th 13-85 6rd
14 9 TDs 7 5
3-6 (50%) 11-13 (85%) FG-ATT 4-4 (100%) 3-6 (50%)
13-13 (100%) 1st 9-10 (90%) 39th Red Zone 9-11 (82%) 60th 3-4 (75%) 35th
10-13 (77%) 1-10 (10%)  RZ TD 5-11 (45%) 2-4 (50%)
OFEI/DFEI
29.4 66 32.0 49 S&P+ 29.9 75 12.8 2

Purdue is 2-1 under first-year head coach Jeff Brohm and has looked surprisingly un-Purdue-like so far. They hung with Louisville in the season opener, leading 28-25 in the fourth quarter before allowing 10 unanswered points in the final nine minutes. In Week 2, the Boilermakers topped Ohio University 44-21, and this past Saturday they traveled into SEC country and whooped Missouri, 35-3. Missouri is hardly the Mizzou of the past decade, but it’s becoming clear, neither is Purdue.

Brohm has already topped the 2013 season long win total, tied the 2015 total, and needs just one more win to tie 2014 and 2016’s. He has done so with a revamped offense that ranks in the top third nationally in most categories. Last season, in Darrel Hazel’s final year at the helm, Purdue ranked 11th in the Big Ten in scoring, but actually led the conference in passing. Three games into 2017, the Boilers are fourth in the conference in scoring, and sixth in total offense — ahead of Michigan in both categories.

Purdue is averaging 11 more points per game so far than they did a year ago, and that’s not simply because of schedule strength. Despite playing 16th-ranked Louisville this year — compared to a poorer non-conference slate last year — the Boilers have scored 18 more points than they did in the first three games of 2016.

They’ve done it with a strong passing game that is averaging 286.7 yards per game and ranks 35th nationally. They threw for 294 yards against Louisville, which is relatively the same as what the Cardinals allowed to 3rd-ranked Clemson this past Saturday. They followed that up with 295 yards against Ohio and 272 against Missouri. What’s more is that they’ve completed 65 percent of their passes with a 10-4 touchdown to interception ratio.

Purdue is less potent on the ground, ranking 63rd nationally with an average of 173 yards per game. That’s about 26 yards fewer than Michigan on a per game basis, though they’re averaging just 0.2 yards per carry fewer than the Wolverines. Louisville’s defense, which ranks 43rd nationally against the run, held the Boilers to just 51 rushing yards on 21 carries in the opener, so there’s precedent for Michigan’s defense.

Before we get carried away by the success of Purdue’s offense in the early season, let’s also point out that their two wins came against two poor defensive teams. Ohio ranks 69th in scoring defense, 64th against the run, 70th against the pass, and 65th in total defense. Missouri is even worse at 112th in scoring defense, 91st against the run, 98th against the pass, and 102nd in total defense. Louisville is worse yet, ranking 115th in scoring defense, 43rd against the run, 122nd against the pass, and 104th in total. Granted, the Cardinals have played Clemson, who may very well wind up in the College Football Playoff once again this season.

Defensively, Purdue isn’t quite as stout as their offense, ranking 41st in scoring (19.7 points per game), 53rd against the run (129.7 yards per game), 83rd against the pass (244.7 yards per game), and 68th in total defense (374.3 yards per game).

Purdue’s defense let Lamar Jackson throw for 387 yards and two touchdowns and rush for another 107 yards in the opener, but held Missouri to just 203 total yards and 70 rushing yards on 2.4 yards per carry. They did, however, give up nearly 400 total yards to Ohio, letting the Bobcats rush for 4.6 yards per carry and pass for 223 yards. Purdue has struggled to get into the backfield with just one sack and eight tackles for loss through three games. By comparison, Michigan has 13 sacks and 27 tackles for loss so far.

Unlike the Air Force matchup, Michigan will face a more traditional offense this Saturday, but that doesn’t mean it will be easy. It will be the best passing offense the Wolverines’ young defense has faced so far this season. Purdue hasn’t been great at protecting the quarterback — they’ve allowed eight sacks just like Michigan has — so expect Don Brown to dial up plenty of blitzes to keep quarterback David Blough out of rhythm.

If Michigan can survive its first road test of the season the Wolverines will head into the bye week at 4-0 with an extra week to prepare for a rivalry game against Michigan State and a pair of road games at Indiana and Penn State the weeks following.

First Look: Cincinnati

Monday, September 4th, 2017


All the talk heading into Michigan’s season opener was about the Wolverines’ inexperience after losing 15 starters including 10 from the defense alone. But there was plenty of young talent remaining to shut down Florida’s offense and capture a 33-17 victory. It was an important first road block cleared by the baby Wolverines and now they get a few games against less talented teams to refine things before the meat of the schedule begins.

Cincinnati is the first victim — I mean, opponent — and the early line has Michigan favored by 33 points. Let’s take a look at the matchup.

Cincinnati & Michigan team stats comparison
Offense Defense
Average Rank Average Rank Average Rank Average Rank
26.0 81st 33.0 55th PPG 14.0 34th 17.0 44th
97 215 Rush Yds 224 11
97.0 89th 215.0 44th Rush/Gm 224.0 99th 11.0 3rd
3.3 4.4 Rush Avg 3.7 0.4
151 218 Pass Yds 89 181
151.0 99th 218.0 68th Pass/Gm 89.0 12th 181.0 46th
248 433 Total Off. 313 192
248.0 107th 433.0 58th Total Off./Gm 313.0 48th 192.0 17th
20.5 58th N/A N/A KR Avg 19.3 63rd 17.8 50th
10.5 29th 8.0 42nd PR Avg 1.0 58th N/A N/A
22:19 113th 34:13 25th Avg TOP 37:41 25:47
27% 100th 33% 80th 3rd Down% 19% 18th 15% 14th
0-0 1st 5-22 112th Sacks-Yds 1-6 69th 6-35 3rd
4 3 TDs 2 2
0-1 (00%) 4-6 (67%) FG-ATT 0-0 (–%) 1-2 (50%)
4-5 (80%) 74th 3-4 (75%) 84th Red Zone 2-4 (50%) 25th 0-0 (–%) 1st
4-5 (80%) 1-4 (25%)  RZ TD 2-4 (5-%) 0-0 (–%)
OFEI/DFEI
S&P+

Cincinnati won its opener against Austin Peay 26-14 on Saturday in the head coaching debut of former Ohio State defensive coordinator and interim head coach Luke Fickell. Austin Peay is an FCS team that went 0-11 last season, has a 28-game losing streak, and featured the third-worst (120th-ranked) total defense in FCS. The Governors allowed 506.6 total yards per game last season and held Cincinnati to just 248 yards on Saturday. They were also dead last in FCS in scoring defense, allowing 47 points per game, and they held Cincinnati to 26. Either they’ve made major improvements defensively, or Cincinnati’s offense is pretty bad this year.

The Bearcats went 4-8 in 2016 and had the nation’s 99th-ranked offense, but still compiled at least 80 yards more in each game last season than they did on Saturday. Now they have to face a Michigan defense that held Florida to just 191 total yards and 11 yards rushing. Cincinnati managed just 97 yards on the ground on Saturday against a run defense that allowed 257.8 yards per game in 2016. Cincinnati had the nation’s 117th-ranked running game a year ago and it doesn’t appear to be much better this fall.

Quarterback Hayden Moore completed 17-of-28 passes for 151 yards and three touchdowns, which is a positive for the Bearcats. He had a career touchdown to interception ratio of 20-to-18 entering Saturday.

Defensively, Cincinnati allowed Austin Peay to compile 313 total yards including 224 on the ground. The Governors ran the ball 60 times compared to just 19 passes, but clearly they felt they could run on the Bearcats’ defense, which bodes well for Michigan’s running game this week. In fact, first-year Austin Peay head coach had an interesting comment after the game.

“There’s nothing that Cincinnati did that stopped us on offense,” quarterback JaVaughn Craig said after the game. “We stopped ourselves. I do give credit to Cincinnati’s defense. They’re very physical, they run to the ball and they play hard. I just feel like we can control and do things a lot better on the offensive side of the ball.”

Yes, a quarterback of a team that has the longest losing streak in the nation — FBS or FCS — played the “we stopped ourselves” card. Michigan ran for 215 yards on a stout Florida defense and should run all over Cincinnati.

The Cincinnati pass defense allowed just 89 passing yards on 9-of-19 passing, but the Bearcats ranked 74th against the pass last season. Fickell is a defensive coach, but Michigan’s passing game will get a chance to give the young receivers plenty of work.

Cincinnati.com opined that Fickell may have been holding back on Saturday given the opponent so as to not show Michigan and future opponents much of anything. That’s a bit hard to believe since it was a six point game until five minutes left. Even if it’s true, there’s only so much the Bearcats can improve, and Michigan presents the toughest test they’ll face all season.

First Look: #17 Florida

Wednesday, August 30th, 2017


Michigan kicks off its 2017 campaign in just three short days, and unlike last year when the Wolverines hosted an underwhelming Hawaii squad there is plenty of anticipation for this year’s opener. Florida enters the season ranked 17th in the AP Poll and 16th in the Coaches Poll while Michigan finds itself slightly higher at 11th and 9th, respectively.

While we haven’t had a look at either team yet this season we can take a look at how last year’s stats stack up, though it should be taken with a grain of salt since neither team is the same as the one that finished last January.

Florida 2016 team stats & Michigan comparison
Offense Rank Offense Rank Defense Rank Defense Rank
23.9 107 40.3 11 PPG 16.8 6 14.1 2
1,667 2,768 Rush Yds 1,878 1,550
128.2 113 212.9 33 Rush/Gm 144.5 38 119.2 15
3.7 4.8 Rush Avg 3.8 3.2
2,805 2,756 Pass Yds 1,931 1,853
215.8 79 212.0 85 Pass/Gm 148.5 2 142.5 1
4,472 5,524 Total Off. 3,809 3,403
344.0 116 424.9 58 Total Off./Gm 293.0 5 261.8 1
22.3 39 18.7 110 KR Avg 23.6 110 22.1 91
7.6 72 14.3 8 PR Avg 9.8 96 6.5 47
31:13 38 33:03 15 Avg TOP 28:47 26:57
42% 55 43% 40 3rd Down% 35% 24 21% 1
28-221 68 22-145 40 Sacks-Yds 31-208 40 46-296 4
35 66 TDs 27 22
21-25 (84%) 19-24 (79%) FG-ATT 10-15 (67%) 10-18 (56%)
30-42 (71%) 126 62-68 (91%) 13 Red Zone 28-39 (72%) 4 20-28 (71%) 3
21-42 (50%) 44-68 (65%)  RZ TD 18-39 (46%) 14-28 (50%)
-.42 100 .81 11 OFEI/DFEI .95 6 .89 8
26.0 88 33.8 40 S&P+ 13.3 4 7.7 2

Florida went 9-4 overall last year and 6-2 in the Southeastern Conference, finishing the season on a high note with a 30-3 throttling of Iowa in the Outback Bowl. The Gators’ best win of the season was a 16-10 victory on the road over 16th-ranked LSU. But when they lost they lost bad, losing by an average of 21.8 points per game. Arkansas beat the Gators 31-10 and Florida State and Alabama beat them by a combined score of 85-29 to close the regular season.

The offense in Jim McElwain’s second season in Gainesville was among the nation’s worst, ranking 116th nationally in total offense and 107th in scoring. They topped 30 points just four times and 40 points once while being held to 16 or fewer points five times. SB Nation’s Bill Connelly describes Florida as “good against bad and bad against good” in 2016 and that seems right. That’s also good news for Michigan.

The good news for McElwain is that most of his offense returns from last season. The bad news is that leading receiver Antonio Callaway is among eight players that are suspended for the season opener. The question mark is the quarterback. Will Notre Dame transfer Malik Zaire get the nod? Will McElwain go with redshirt freshman Feleipe Franks? Or will he turn to veteran Luke Del Rio?

Regardless of the quarterback, the running game is where Florida will need to improve. The Gators ranked 113th nationally in rushing last season and were held below 100 yards rushing four times including an astounding zero yards against Alabama and 12 yards against Arkansas. Michigan’s rush defense ranked 15th nationally last season and although it lost a lot of starters to the NFL, it returns plenty of talent with starting experience.

Defensively, Florida was nearly on Michigan’s level last season, ranking fifth nationally in total defense and sixth in scoring. The Gators held eight of 13 opponents to 10 points or less, but there wasn’t really any middle ground. In the four losses, they allowed 38.5 points per game. That’s good news for a Michigan offense that ranked 11th nationally in scoring a year ago.

The Gators return five starters, but have to replace nearly the entire secondary, and that secondary was second only to Michigan in pass defense a year ago. With Michigan’s young receiving corps that could make for an interesting matchup of young but unproven talent on both sides of the ball.

Florida’s rush defense wasn’t quite as good in 2016, ranking 38th nationally, and the pass rush was good but not great, recording 31 sacks for a national ranking of 40th. The first string should be good, but depth issues abound, especially when the suspensions come into play.

All told, Florida is returning a solid team that certainly won’t be an easy matchup for a Michigan team that has to replace a lot of production this season. Most experts seem to be overvaluing Michigan’s losses defensively and calling for a Florida win, but only time will tell.

First Look: Hawaii

Monday, August 29th, 2016


Hawaii dance

Game week is finally here. In five days, Michigan will kick off Year 2 of the Jim Harbaugh era against the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors. While Michigan fans will finally get their first look at the Wolverines, Hawaii already has a game under their belt. Like Michigan last season, Hawaii lead off the college football season, this time with a game against California in Sydney, Australia. And like Michigan last season, it ended in a loss.

Cal beat Hawaii 51-31 on Friday night in a game that didn’t feature much defense from either team. The two offenses piled up over 1,100 total yards, 57 first downs, and 82 points. That’s not surprising given that the two teams ranked 118th and 108th in total defense a year ago.

Any hopes that new Hawaii head coach Nick Rolovich had of an improved defense were put on hold for at least another week. Hawaii allowed 630 total yards including 441 through the air. Hawaii’s pass defense was actually respectable in 2015, ranking 42nd nationally, but Texas Tech transfer quarterback Davis Webb carved up the Rainbow Warrior secondary for 441 yards and four touchdowns while completing 70 percent of his passes. Michigan’s receiving corps will be licking its chops after seeing the performance of Cal receiver Chad Hansen, who caught 14 passes for 160 yards and two scores.

Offensively, Hawaii managed 482 total yards, which was more than they had in any game last season. But after a strong first quarter, Hawaii’s offense faded away until the game was well out of reach. Quarterback Ikaika Woolsey completed 17-of34 passes for 234 yards, one touchdown, and one interception, while running back Diocemy Saint Juste rushed for 118 yards and a score on 14 carries (8.4 yards per carry).

Simply looking at Hawaii’s offensive stats shows reason for hope this season, but the defense is still a sieve and it’s hard to see that changing against Michigan this weekend.

Since Michigan has yet to play a game, let’s take a look at how Michigan and Hawaii’s stats compared in 2015.

Hawaii 2015 team stats & Michigan comparison
Hawaii | Michigan Rank Defense Rank
Points Per Game 17.6 | 31.4 118 50
35.6 16.4 105 6
Rushing Yards 1,611 2,057 3,118 1,589
Rush Avg. Per Game 123.9 158.2 115 | 83
239.8 122.2 118 16
Avg. Per Rush 3.8 | 4.2
4.5 3.6
Passing Yards 2,501 | 3,090 2,716 2,060
Pass Avg. Per Game 192.4 237.7 98 53 208.9 158.5 42 3
Total Offense 4,112 5,147 5,834 3,649
Total Off Avg. Per Game 313.6 395.9 120 69 448.8 280.7 104 4
Kick Return Average 21.3 28.4 60 3 26.7 20.5 123 | 48
Punt Return Average 7.7 11.4 71 31 7.5 11.5 56 95
Avg. Time of Possession 23:30 | 33:28 127 | 9
36:30 | 26:32
3rd Down Conversion Pct 31.0% | 46.0% 120 17
44.0% | 28.0% 99 3
Sacks Allowed-Yards/By-Yards 31-217 | 18-95
82 | 27
25-145 | 32-250
75 | 35
Touchdowns Scored 29 | 50
59 | 24
Field Goals-Attempts 8-11 18-22
17-18 | 15-18
Red Zone Scores (24-31) 77%|(52-56) 93% 105 7
(54-62) 87%|(27-34) 79% 93 37
Red Zone Touchdowns (20-31) 65%|(37-56) 66% (41-62) 66%|(14-34) 41%
OFEI/DFEI -1.42| .56 123 19 -1.45 | .63 122 15
Off. S&P+/Def. S&P+ 17.9 34.7 119 32 34.0 13.6 99 | 2

While going 3-10 and 0-8 in the Mountain West Conference, Hawaii ranked near the bottom nationally in most categories, both offensively and defensively. On offense, Hawaii averaged two touchdowns fewer than Michigan, 34 fewer rushing yards, 45 fewer passing yards, and 10 fewer minutes of possession. Hawaii converted just 31 percent of third downs compared to Michigan’s 46 percent and they allowed 13 more sacks.

Defensively, Hawaii allowed nearly 20 more points, 118 more rushing yards, and 50 more passing yards per game than Michigan. They allowed opposing offenses to convert 44 percent of third downs, while Michigan’s defense only allowed 28 percent. They also allowed more than twice as many touchdowns (59 compared to Michigan’s 24) and allowed opponents to convert touchdowns on two-thirds of their red zone trips.

There is one area in which Hawaii fared better than Michigan last season, and that is punt return defense. Michigan gave up 11.5 yards per return, while Hawaii allowed 7.5. But that’s not a category that means a lot in the grand scheme of things, especially when there’s such a discrepancy in all of the other categories.

With nine returning starters on offense and a decent performance against Cal on Friday, there’s a good chance that Hawaii’s offense improves this season. But Michigan’s defense isn’t Cal’s. While Cal’s defense ranked 108th nationally in 2015, Michigan’s ranked fourth. If the Wolverines defense under new defensive coordinator Don Brown lives up to expectations, it will make for a long day for Hawaii.

First Look: Florida

Monday, December 28th, 2015


Gator

After a month-long break, Michigan hits the field for one last time this season on Friday in the Buffalo Wild Wings Citrus Bowl. The Wolverines have a chance to win 10 games in a season for just the fourth time since 2000, as well as a chance to pick up another win over an SEC foe. Michigan faces Florida, a program that has had a very similar past year with an underachieving 2014 that led to the firing of their coach, and then a resurgence under their new coach. Let’s take a look at the Gators.

Florida team stats & Michigan comparison
Florida | Michigan Rank Defense Rank
Points Per Game 24.5 | 30.6 98 57
16.5 17.2 8 11
Rushing Yards 1,659 1,832 1,568 1,471
Rush Avg. Per Game 127.6 152.7 113 92
120.6 122.6 17 18
Avg. Per Rush 3.4 | 4.1
3.4 3.6
Passing Yards 2,744 2,812 2,272 1,905
Pass Avg. Per Game 211.1 234.3 78 54 174.8 158.8 11 3
Total Offense 4,403 4,644 3,840 3,376
Total Off Avg. Per Game 338.7 387.0 109 72 295.4 281.3 6 4
Kick Return Average 20.8 28.4 72 3 20.24 20.21 43 | 41
Punt Return Average 13.9 11.4 11 31 3.7 11.5 17 96
Avg. Time of Possession 31:43 | 33:02 29 | 13
28:17 | 26:58
3rd Down Conversion Pct 35.0% | 44.0% 103 26
31.0% | 26.0% 12 | 3
Sacks Allowed-Yards/By-Yards 43-250 | 18-95
121 | T37
40-294 | 30-226
9 | T34
Touchdowns Scored 43 45
25 | 23
Field Goals-Attempts 7-17 16-20
13-18 | 15-18
Red Zone Scores (33-48) 69%|(46-49) 94% 123 6
(25-32) 78%|(26-31) 84% 30 69
Red Zone Touchdowns (28-48) 58%|(33-49) 67% (15-32) 47%|(13-31) 42%

Florida is very similar to Michigan statistically. Both feature one of the nation’s top defenses and middling offenses. Florida is slightly better in scoring defense, allowing 16.5 points per game compared to Michigan’s 17.2. The Ohio State game hurt Michigan in that regard, dropping the Wolverines from sixth nationally to 11th. While Michigan let OSU score 42 points and also gave up 41 to Indiana, Florida allowed more than 30 points just once all season, a 35-28 loss to LSU. However, the Gators didn’t record a shutout and Michigan posted three straight early in the season.

Both teams’ rushing defenses are about the same with Florida allowing two fewer yards per game on the ground. Only three teams eclipsed 200 yards rushing against the Gators, Tennessee with 254, LSU with 221, and Alabama with 233. Alabama’s Derrick Henry likely locked up the Heisman trophy with a 44-carry, 189-yard performance against Florida in the SEC Championship game. LSU’s Leonard Fornett, a Heisman candidate for most of the season, tallied 180 yards on 31 carries against the Gators, while Tennessee had two 100-yard rushers — quarterback Joshua Dobbs (136) and running back Jalen Hurd (102). Unfortunately, Michigan’s rushing game isn’t poised to have as much success on the ground.

Florida’s pass defense, however, is slightly more susceptible, though still ranking among the nation’s best. The Gators rank 11th nationally, allowing 16 more passing yards per game than Michigan. Four opponents topped 200 yards passing, led by East Carolina’s 346 in Week 2. The best passing offense Florida faced all season, Ole Miss, threw for 259 yards. Florida’s corners, Vernon Hargreaves and Jalen Tabor, form one of the nation’s best duos and will be a tough match for Jehu Chesson and Amara Darboh.

Offensively, Florida isn’t nearly as scary. They’re fairly similar statistically to where Penn State and Minnesota were when Michigan faced them this season — in the bottom third nationally in most categories. They score just 24.5 points per game, six fewer than Michigan. A 61-13 throttling of New Mexico State in the season opener inflated the average as the Gators topped 30 points just twice the rest of the way, a 31-24 win over East Carolina the following week and a 38-10 win over Ole Miss in Week 5. Since then, Florida has averaged just 18.3 points in their final eight games. They managed just nine points in a 9-7 win over Vanderbilt, then were held to a measly two in a 27-2 loss to rival Florida State.

The running game is even more nonexistent than Michigan’s, averaging 25 fewer yards per game. The Gators’ best output was a 258-yard performance against Georgia — one of only two times they cracked 200 yards. The other was in the opener against NMSU. They were held below 100 yards four times, most recently 15 yards on 21 carries in the SEC title game against Alabama. Only 14 teams nationally average fewer yards per game than Florida, none of which Michigan faced. The closest, BYU, ranks one spot ahead of Florida, and Michigan held the Cougars to just 50 yards on 22 carries.

The passing game is slightly better, but it was more dynamic under Will Grier, who completed 65.8 percent of his passes for 10 touchdowns and three interceptions in the first six games before being suspended for testing positive for performance-enhancing drugs. Sophomore Treon Harris replaced him, but has completed just 49.2 percent of his passes for seven touchdowns and five picks since then. He threw for 271 yards in his first start against LSU, but managed 200 yards just once in the final six games. Alabama’s defense held him to just 9-of-24 for 165 yards.

As far as intangibles go, Florida converts just 35 percent of its third downs (103rd nationally) compared to Michigan’s 44 percent. They also have allowed 43 sacks — more than all but six teams nationally. For perspective, Penn State has allowed 39. The Gators gave up five sacks in a game five times, including each of the last three, and allowed three or more sacks in eight of 13 games. On the flip side, the Gators rank 12th nationally in third down defense (31 percent) and ninth nationally with 40 sacks — 10 more than Michigan’s defense has recorded.

On special teams, Florida is an average 72nd in kick returns, averaging eight fewer yards per return than Michigan. However, they are dynamic in the punt return game, averaging 13.9 yards per returns. They’ve returned two punts for touchdowns this season. The Gators are also solid against punt returns, allowing just 3.7 yards per, which ranks 11th nationally. If the game comes down to the kicking game, Michigan should have the advantage as Florida has made just 7-of-17 field goals with a long of 43, and has missed the last five attempts. Three of those 10 misses have been blocked.

Overall, it should be a pretty even game with two great defenses and two average offenses. Michigan has the advantage offensively, but will have to be able to have at least some success on the ground against a very stingy rush defense. It should be a low scoring game, but regardless of the outcome, it’s two tradition-rich programs on the rise and it’s exciting to be playing on New Year’s Day once again.

First Look: Ohio State

Monday, November 23rd, 2015


Sad urban

The Game lost a little bit of luster when Ohio State lost to Michigan State on Saturday evening, putting the Spartans solely in possession of their Big Ten East destiny. The winner of the Michigan-Ohio State game will have to hope Penn State pulls off an upset in East Lansing; otherwise, the winner of college football’s greatest rivalry will have only bragging rights and a better bowl placement to take away from it. But bragging rights are always enough in this rivalry. Let’s take a look at how the teams compare.

Ohio State team stats & Michigan comparison
Ohio State | Michigan Rank Defense Rank
Points Per Game 34.4 | 32.2 T36 | 51
14.1 14.9 2 6
Rushing Yards 2,534 1,775 1,471 1,102
Rush Avg. Per Game 230.4 161.4 14 81
133.7 100.2 30 4
Avg. Per Rush 5.5 | 4.2
3.4 3.1
Passing Yards 2,131 2,505 1,807 1,792
Pass Avg. Per Game 193.7 227.7 100 60 164.3 162.9 T5 4
Total Offense 4,665 | 4,280 3,278 2,894
Total Off Avg. Per Game 424.1 389.1 48 72 298.0 263.1 8 2
Kick Return Average 23.4 30.7 32 2 16.2 20.3 5 | 44
Punt Return Average 12.3 11.4 26 32 3.6 11.5 18 98
Avg. Time of Possession 28:52 | 33:19 83 | 10
31:08 | 26:41
3rd Down Conversion Pct 38.0% | 44.0% 81 34
33.0% | 23.0% T23 2
Sacks Allowed-Yards/By-Yards 16-88 | 16-84
T33 | T33
32-181 | 29-224
T14 | T25
Touchdowns Scored 51 44
19 | 17
Field Goals-Attempts 7-12 14-18
8-15 | 15-18
Red Zone Scores (35-44) 80%|(43-46) 93% 93 | 7
(19-25) 76%|(21-25) 84% 23 64
Red Zone Touchdowns (28-44) 64%|(32-46) 70% (15-25) 60%|(8-25) 32%

Ohio State is averaging 2.2 more points per game than Michigan and 35 more total yards per game. However, in Big Ten play, Michigan leads the conference in points per game (34.7) and Ohio State is second at 34.3, though the Buckeyes still have the edge in total yards.

Through the first 10 games of the season, Ohio State’s rushing game was one to fear with Heisman candidate running back Ezekiel Elliott. But he got just 12 carries against Michigan State on Saturday as Ohio State was held to just 86 yards rushing as a team. Quarterback J.T. Barrett got the majority of the carries with 14 for just 44 yards and that drew the ire of Elliott in his postgame comments.

“How we lost, I just feel like we weren’t put in the right opportunity to win this game, we weren’t put in the right situations to win this game,” Elliott said. “I don’t think Michigan State was better than us. They weren’t. We didn’t execute.”

Whether that earns him a punishment or an extra helping of carries this Saturday remains to be seen, but he’s still one of the best backs in the nation and he still ranks second in the Big Ten with an average of 132.5 yards per game. He also leads the conference with 17 rushing touchdowns.

The passing game, on the other hand, has been wildly inconsistent this season. It ranks 100th nationally and 11th in the Big Ten, right in between two of Michigan’s last three opponents: Rutgers and Penn State. Those two managed just 201 combined passing yards against Michigan’s pass defense that ranks fourth nationally. Barrett doesn’t rank among the top 10 quarterbacks in the Big Ten in passing, and Ohio State’s leading receiver, Michael Thomas, ranks 10th in receiving yards per game (59.9).

Defensively, Ohio State is just a hair behind Michigan, ranking 30th nationally against the run and fifth against the pass. The Buckeyes do allow less than a point fewer per game, but that’s negligible. Two main differences between Ohio State and Michigan’s defenses are third down conversion and red zone defense. Ohio State ranks a respectable 23rd nationally, allowing opponents to convert third downs 33 percent of the time compared to Michigan’s 23 percent, which is second nationally. In the red zone, Michigan has done a much better job of forcing opponents to kick field goals. Both teams have allowed 25 opponent trips to the red zone. Ohio State has given up 15 touchdowns, while Michigan has allowed just eight.

Both teams are pretty good on special teams with dynamic return men. Michigan ranks second nationally in kick returns with the trio of Jourdan Lewis, Jabrill Peppers, and Jehu Chesson, all of which is a threat to take it all the way. Ohio State’s Dontre Wilson and Curtis Samuel rank 32nd in that regard. But Jalen Marshall’s 12.8-yard punt return average has the Bucks slightly ahead of Michigan in that category.

So what can we expect on Saturday? It’s too early for a prediction, but it’s a much more even matchup than any of us thought it would be entering the season. The status of Elliott and the psyche of a team that just suffered its first loss in 24 Big Ten games will play a major part in the outcome. Will they bounce back or will they crumble from their first experience of adversity? We’ll find out at high noon on Saturday.

First Look: Michigan State

Monday, October 12th, 2015


Dantonio

The biggest week of the season to date is upon us with 7th-ranked Michigan State visiting 12th-ranked Michigan on Saturday. ESPN College GameDay will be on hand making the annual battle for the Paul Bunyan Trophy and in-state bragging rights the game of the week. National pundits have begun jumping on the Michigan bandwagon after Saturday’s 38-0 pounding of Northwestern, and if the Wolverines can pull off a win over rival Michigan State they’ll certainly vault into the top 10 and be in contention for not only a Big Ten title but the College Football Playoff. Let’s take a look at how the two teams compare.

Michigan State team stats & Michigan comparison
Michigan St. | Michigan Rank Defense Rank
Points Per Game 31.3 | 29.5 55 | 67
21.3 6.3 43 | 1
Rushing Yards 1,050 1,208 781 395
Rush Avg. Per Game 175.0 | 201.3 66 | 33
130.2 | 65.8 34 | 3
Avg. Per Rush 4.4 | 4.8
3.8 | 2.2
Passing Yards 1,334 1,135 1,452 693
Pass Avg. Per Game 222.3 | 189.2 76 | 97 242.0 | 115.5 88 | 2
Total Offense 2,384 2,343 2,233 | 1,088
Total Off Avg. Per Game 397.3 | 390.5 72 | 78 372.2 | 181.3 56 | 2
Kick Return Average 20.0 | 39.0 86 1 21.5 | 18.1 71 | 24
Punt Return Average 1.0 | 8.7 124 | 60 16.1 | 7.5 119 | T58
Avg. Time of Possession 32:26 | 34:48 24 | 4
27:34 | 25:12
3rd Down Conversion Pct 50.0% | 43.0% T8 | 38
38.0% | 19.0% 68 | 1
Sacks Allowed-Yards/By-Yards 4-26 | 8-47
T8 | T36
21-135 | 15-106
T7 | 38
Touchdowns Scored 25 22
17 | 5
Field Goals-Attempts 5-97-9
3-6 | 1-4
Red Zone Scores (20-25) 80%|(19-20) 95% T89 | 12
(13-17) 76%|(5-6) 83% T29 | T67
Red Zone Touchdowns (16-25) 64%|(15-20) 75% (10-17) 59%|(4-6) 66.7%

On paper, Michigan State presents an easier matchup than Northwestern did last week, but history tells us that won’t be the case. While Michigan has owned the series rivalry, Michigan State has taken advantage of Michigan’s misfortunes the past seven years, winning six of the past seven. And until Michigan proves otherwise, the Spartans own the state on the football field.

When Michigan hired Jim Harbaugh most expected him to right the ship, but figured it would take a couple of years. It was unfathomable that six weeks into the season Michigan would be the seven point favorite in a top-12 matchup with ESPN College GameDay on hand.

Michigan has looked like the best team in the Big Ten East while Michigan State has struggled with Purdue and Rutgers the past two weeks. And surprisingly, it’s the Spartan defense that has been the Achilles heel so far. Pat Narduzzi built Michigan State’s defense into one of the nation’s best the past few years, but his departure for Pittsburgh in the offseason is certainly being felt in East Lansing. Michigan State ranks just 56th nationally in total defense, 43rd in points allowed per game, 34th against the run, and 88th against the pass.

Much of Michigan’s futility against the Spartans during the past two coaching staffs has been offensively, as the Wolverines haven’t scored more than 21 points since 2007. This year, the tables have turned as Michigan has the nation’s best defense and Michigan State’s offense and defense are both average.

It’s no secret that the winner of this rivalry is the team that wins the running game nearly every time the past few decades. Michigan State’s running game averages 175 yards per game (66th nationally), while Michigan’s averages 201.3 (33rd), but the Wolverines boast the nation’s second best total defense and third best run defense.

When these two teams met last year, Michigan’s running game came in averaging 164.1 yards per game and the Spartans’ 4th-ranked run defense held it to just 61 rushing yards.

In 2013, Michigan’s running game came in averaging 183.9 yards per game and the Spartans’ top-ranked run defense held it to negative-48 rushing yards. In fact, in that 2013 matchup, Michigan State’s defense was very comparable to Michigan’s this year (top three nationally in total defense, scoring defense, rush defense, and pass defense) and Michigan’s offense was far better than Michigan State’s this year (11 more points per game, 50 more total yards per game). And the Spartans’ defense completely shut them down, winning 29-6.

Can we expect a similar outcome — with the roles reversed — this Saturday? It’s hard to imagine, but Harbaugh has this team playing its best football in years, while Michigan State has mounting injuries, so they could be just ripe for the picking.

First Look: Northwestern

Monday, October 5th, 2015


M00N

After last season’s “M00N” game between Michigan and Northwestern — which may have been the worst game of the season to watch as a fan of either team — and both teams’ 5-7 finishes, most didn’t expect such a hyped-up meeting this season. But that’s where we find ourselves five weeks into 2015 as Northwestern stands 5-0, ranked 13th nationally, and Michigan is 4-1, ranked 18th. It’s one of just two games across the country featuring two ranked teams — Utah versus Cal is the other — and the winner gets to make a case for being a major Big Ten title contender. Let’s take a first look at how the two teams compare.

Northwestern Team Stats & Michigan Comparison
Northwestern | Michigan Rank Defense Rank
Points Per Game 25.4 | 27.8 89 | 74
7.0 7.6 1 | 2
Rushing Yards 1,244 1,007 587 357
Rush Avg. Per Game 248.8 | 201.4 14 | 35
117.4 | 71.4 26 | 5
Avg. Per Rush 4.4 | 4.9
3.7 | 2.3
Passing Yards 711 956 650 563
Pass Avg. Per Game 142.2 | 191.2 118 | 96 130.0 | 112.6 7 | 3
Total Offense 1,955 1,963 1,237 | 920
Total Off Avg. Per Game 391.0 | 392.6 79 | 77 247.4 | 184.0 5 | 2
Kick Return Average 31.6 | 24.8 3 32 18.7 | 17.8 32 | 19
Punt Return Average 12.0 | 8.7 38 | 62 -1.6 | 7.5 2 | T63
Avg. Time of Possession 33:43 | 34:20 11 | 6
26:17 | 25:40
3rd Down Conversion Pct 49.0% | 42.0% 10 | T46
20.0% | 19.0% 2 | 1
Sacks Allowed-Yards/By-Yards 4-24 | 5-43
T13 | T17
9-51 | 11-83
T71 | T45
Touchdowns Scored 14 17
3 | 5
Field Goals-Attempts 10-13 | 6-8
5-7 | 1-3
Red Zone Scores (14-17) 82.3%|(16-17) 94% 74 | 12
(6-10) 60%|(5-6) 83% T6 | T71
Red Zone Touchdowns (5-17) 29.4%|(12-17) 71% (1-10) 10%|(4-6) 66.7%

Michigan and Northwestern are nearly identical statistically so far this season with great defenses and average offenses. Michigan’s offense averages 2.4 more points and 1.6 more total yards per game than the Wildcats, but Northwestern has a seven percent better third down conversion rate. Northwestern gains more of its yards on the ground (47.4 more per game) but Michigan averages 49 more passing yards per game. One area in which Michigan has excelled is putting the ball in the end zone when it’s in the red zone. Michigan has punched it in 12 of 17 times, while Northwestern has done so just five of 17 times. Against good defenses, that might make the difference.

Defensively, Northwester and Michigan are No. 1 and 2 nationally in points allowed per game, with the Wildcats allowing 0.6 points fewer. But Michigan’s defense ranks second nationally in total defense, allowing 63.4 fewer yards per game, and Northwestern’s defense is just 26th nationally against the run, allowing 46 more rushing yards per game than Michigan’s defense does. The two are also the top two defenses in the country in stopping third downs with Michigan allowing just 19 percent conversions and Northwestern 20 percent.

Michigan-Northwestern starters comparison_Offense

While Jake Rudock hasn’t produced much this season, Clayton Thorson has done even less with his arm, throwing for 245 fewer yards. But he’s also thrown for half as many interceptions as Rudock. Northwestern has a workhorse at running back in Justin Jackson, who has nearly doubled De’Veon Smith’s rushing yards — although Smith missed the last game due to injury — but the Wildcats also have three other ball carriers with at least 137 rushing yards. Only Smith and Ty Isaac have that many for the Wolverines. At receiver, Michigan has the advantage, especially with Jake Butt, and on the offensive line, Michigan has a 98 to 61 advantage in career starts.

Michigan-Northwestern starters comparison_Defense

Both teams have great defenses, but Michigan’s defensive production seems to be spread out among more contributors, while Northwestern’s is a bit more centralized to its starters. Almost across the board, Northwestern’s starters have more tackles than their Michigan counterparts, but as a team, Michigan has recorded 40 tackles for loss to Northwestern’s 31 and 11 sacks to Northwestern’s nine. Michigan suffered a huge loss on Saturday when defensive end Mario Ojemudia went down with an Achilles injury, leaving Royce Jenkins-Stone big shoes to fill.

Overall, it’s about an even a matchup as one can find, at least on paper. Michigan opened as a 12-point favorite according to Las Vegas, but that number is sure to come down as Saturday approaches. Stay tuned for more coverage throughout the week.

First Look: Ohio State

Monday, November 24th, 2014


FirstLook-OhioState

Michigan was unable to pick up its sixth win on Saturday, falling to Maryland 23-16. That leaves one final chance to gain bowl eligibility and avoid a losing season. Unfortunately, that game is in Columbus where Michigan hasn’t won since 2000. Normally, the week of the Michigan-Ohio State game is an exciting one that fans on both sides look forward to all week. But it has never felt so hollow than it does now. Let’s take a look at how the teams compare.

Ohio State Statistics & Michigan Comparison
Ohio State | Michigan Rank Defense Rank
Points Per Game 44.3 | 20.3 5 | 111
22.5 | 20.6 30 | 21
Rushing Yards 2,856 | 1,833 1,626 | 1,179
Rush Avg. Per Game 259.6 | 166.6 13 | 61
147.8 | 107.2 41 | 9
Avg. Per Rush 5.6 | 4.7
4.1 | 2.9
Passing Yards 2,769 | 1,791 2,008 | 2,141
Pass Avg. Per Game 251.7 | 162.8 48 | 113 182.5 | 194.6 15 | 23
Total Offense 5,625 | 3,624 3,634 | 3,320
Total Off Avg. Per Game 511.4 | 329.5 10 | 114 330.4 | 301.8 19 | 9
Kick Return Average 23.7 | 19.9 18 | 82 17.8 | 21.7 15 | 81
Punt Return Average 12.0 | 6.8 19 | 85 6.0 | 12.8 44 | 116
Avg. Time of Possession 31:59 | 30:35 20 | 46
28:01 | 29:25
3rd Down Conversion Pct 53.0% | 38.0% 3 | 81
36.7% | 37.0% 40 | 42
Sacks Allowed-Yards/By-Yards 23-156 | 20-130
T68 | T54
32-219 | 29-248
T18 | T30
Touchdowns Scored 65 | 25
32 | 25
Field Goals-Attempts 10-16 | 15-21
8-13 | 18-22
Red Zone Scores (47-57)82%|(29-33)88% T67 | T30
(27-33)82%|(31-38)82% T56 | 51
Red Zone Touchdowns (40-57)70%|(20-33)61% (22-33)67%|(18-38)47%
Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) .542 | -.241
11 | 94
-.435 | -.295 18 | 35

Ohio State clinched the Big Ten East division with a 42-27 win over Indiana on Saturday. But that doesn’t mean the Buckeyes can afford to take this week lightly. Aside from it being The Game, Ohio State still has a chance to make the College Football Playoff. Currently ranked sixth, and with only one team — Florida State — undefeated, the Buckeyes need all the style points they can get. Despite winning by 15 this past Saturday, the fact that they trailed Indiana — the Big Ten’s only winless team — until late in the third quarter, didn’t win them any style points. The Bucks have just two games remaining — Michigan and the Big Ten title game — to jump at least two of Alabama, Oregon, Mississippi State, and TCU and fend off Baylor.

Ohio State’s offense will be the best Michigan has faced this season. Only Baylor (50.0), TCU (45.9), Oregon (45.8), and Marshall (44.9) average more points per game than the Buckeyes (44.3). In fact, they’ve been held below 30 just once and below 40 just three times. The fewest points they’ve scored all season came in a 35-21 loss to Virginia Tech in Week 2. Michigan has scored fewer than that in seven of 11 games. Following the Week 2 loss, Ohio State averaged 51.3 points over the next seven games.

Schedule
Date Opponent Result
Aug. 30 at Navy W 34-17
Sept. 6 Virginia Tech L 21-35
Sept. 13 Kent State W 66-0
Sept. 27 Cincinnati W 50-28
Oct. 4 at Maryland W 52-24
Oct. 18 Rutgers W 56-17
Oct. 25 at Penn State W 31-24 2OT
Nov. 1 Illinois W 55-14
Nov. 8 at #8 Michigan State W 49-37
Nov. 15 at #25 Minnesota W 31-24
Nov. 22 Indiana W 42-27
Nov. 29 Michigan

The catalyst has been redshirt freshman quarterback J.T. Barrett, who ranks 12th nationally in total offense (318.8 yards per game) — one spot ahead of Florida State quarterback and reigning Heisman Trophy winner Jameis Winston. The combination of Barrett’s rushing ability and running back Ezekiel Elliott has Ohio State’s run game ranked 13th nationally. Elliott is already over 1,000 yards and Barrett is 151 yards away.

The OSU passing game is slightly less potent — 48th nationally — but has two very talented receivers in Michael Thomas and Devin Smith, a rising star in Jalin Marshall, and a solid tight end in Jeff Heuerman. And despite being a first-year starter, Barrett has 33 touchdowns compared to just 10 interceptions.

Put together, Ohio State’s offense ranks 10th nationally in yards per game (511.4). Michigan’s ranks 114th, or 12th-to-last. The Buckeyes convert 53 percent of their third downs, which ranks third nationally.

Defensively, Ohio State is slightly worse than Michigan, but not nearly as bad as last season. The 22.5 points allowed per game are two more than Michigan and rank 30th nationally. Michigan State put up 37 points, which is the OSU has allowed. Only one — Kent State — was held to single digits and only four have been held below 20.

Ohio State’s rush defense ranks 41st, allowing 147.8 yards per game, about 40 more than Michigan allows. Some of that is a result of playing Navy’s triple-option attack that racked up 370 rushing yards in Week 1, but Indiana rushed for 281 last week.

The pass defense is better, ranking 15th nationally with 182.5 yards allowed per game. Again, some of that is a result of playing Navy, which attempted just four passes for 20 yards. But Michigan State passed for 358 and Cincinnati for 352, so the Buckeyes can be vulnerable through the air.

Altogether, Ohio State’s defense ranks 19th nationally. Michigan’s ranks ninth. Despite a defensive line that most considered the best in the Big Ten and one of the best in the country this season, OSU has just three more sacks than Michigan through 11 games. In addition, OSU isn’t as good at keeping opponents out of the end zone once they reach the red zone. The Bucks allow 67 percent of red zone trips to result in touchdowns, compared to 47 percent allowed by Michigan.

Special teams is a big strength of Ohio State as they rank 18th nationally in kick returns and 19th in punt returns. Comparatively, Michigan ranks 82nd and 85th. OSU also ranks 15th in kick return defense and 44th in punt return defense compared to Michigan’s 81st and 116th.

Everything about this game suggests a Buckeye blowout. The way the season has gone many Michigan fans would be okay with that being the final nail in Brady Hoke’s coaching coffin. But perhaps Hoke can rally the troops to make one final stand the way they nearly did a year ago. It’s unlikely, but that’s why they play the game.

Key Players
Passing Comp-Att Yards TD INT Average/Game
J.T. Barrett 190-293 2,658 33 10 241.6
Rushing Attempts Yards TD Long Average/Carry
Ezekiel Elliott 180 1,061 8 65 5.9
J.T. Barrett (QB) 156 849 9 86 5.4
Curtis Samuel 51 354 4 34 6.9
Cardale Jones (QB) 24 188 0 21 7.8
Receiving Receptions Yards TD Long Average/Game
Michael Thomas 37 605 8 79 55.0
Devin Smith 25 610 8 80 55.5
Ezekiel Elliott (RB) 25 201 0 22 18.3
Jalin Marshall 24 347 6 57 31.5
Jeff Heuerman (TE) 16 194 2 32 19.4
Defense Solo Assisted Total Tackles TFL-Yds Sacks-Yds
Joshua Perry 58 41 99 8.5-31 3.0-18 (1 INT)
Vonn Bell 38 24 62 1.0-2 0-0 (3 INT, 8 PD)
Darron Lee 33 17 50 11.5-48 4.5-34 (2 INT)
Joey Bosa (DE) 27 16 43 18.0-102 11.5-84
Adolphus Washington 18 18 36 7.0-23 2.5-13
Kicking FG Made FG Att Long XP Made XP Att
Sean Neurnberger 10 16 49 65 65
Punting Punts Yds Avg. In-20 50+
Cameron Johnston 31 1,351 43.6 19 9
Full Stats

Stay tuned for more on Ohio State in the coming days.

First Look: Indiana

Monday, October 27th, 2014


FirstLook-Indiana

Michigan had two weeks to prepare for Michigan State, but it didn’t matter one bit as the offense couldn’t move the ball and the defense couldn’t hold up. Now Michigan is in must-win mode if it wants to play in a bowl game and avoid a third losing season in seven years. What better remedy could there be than to play Indiana, who allowed Michigan its best offensive performance of the season a year ago? Could that happen again? Let’s take a look at how the teams match up.

Indiana Statistics & Michigan Comparison
Indiana | Michigan Rank Defense Rank
Points Per Game 30.1 | 20.4 64 | 110
34.9 | 23.1 105 | 44
Rushing Yards 2,029| 1,210 1,181 | 874
Rush Avg. Per Game 289.9 | 151.2 8 | 74 168.7 | 109.2 73 | 16
Avg. Per Rush 6.4 | 4.4
4.5 | 3.1
Passing Yards 1,193 | 1,356 1,983 | 1,679
Pass Avg. Per Game 170.4 | 169.5 112 | 114 283.3 | 209.9 111 | 41
Total Offense 3,222 | 2,566 3,164 | 2,553
Total Off Avg. Per Game 460.3 | 320.8 32 | 115 452.0 | 319.1 100 | 14
Kick Return Average 18.2 | 19.1 116 | 96 19.1 | 19.9 33 | 51
Punt Return Average 6.6 | 6.2 82 | 89 5.2 | 11.8 T36 | 109
Avg. Time of Possession 28:21 | 30:05 95 | 62
31:39 | 29:55
3rd Down Conversion Pct 36.0% | 41.0% 103 | 60
37.0% | 38.0% 43 | 50
Sacks Allowed-Yards/By-Yards 13-73 | 17-109
51 | T76
14-93 | 19-158
T68 | T48
Touchdowns Scored 28 | 19
30 | 21
Field Goals-Attempts 5-9 | 9-13
12-14 | 13-15
Red Zone Scores (18-23)78%|(17-19)89% T98 | 22
(25-25)100%|(23-26)88% T123 | 101
Red Zone Touchdowns (15-23)65%|(14-19)74% (17-25)68%|(14-26)54%
Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) .181 | -.126
42 | 74 .615 | -.207 119 | 44

Indiana head coach Kevin Wilson had the Hoosiers trending upward heading into this season. But quarterback transfers and injuries have decimated the once powerful offense leaving true freshman Zander Diamont to be thrown to the wolves midseason. Diamont went 5-of-15 for 11 yards in his first collegiate action in a 56-17 loss to Michigan State two weeks ago. When he starts at Michigan this Saturday, it will be his first time playing in an opponent’s stadium.

Schedule
Date Opponent Result
Aug. 30 Indiana State W 28-10
Sept. 13 at Bowling Green L 42-45
Sept. 20 at #18 Missouri W 31-27
Sept. 27 Maryland L 15-37
Oct. 4 North Texas W 49-24
Oct. 11 at Iowa L 29-45
Oct. 18 #8 Michigan State L 17-56
Nov. 1 at Michigan
Nov. 8 Penn State
Nov. 15 at Rutgers
Nov. 22 at #13 Ohio State
Nov. 29 Purdue

The Hoosiers offense has certainly taken a step back from a year ago, but is still much better than Michigan’s thanks to a run game that ranks eighth nationally, averaging 289.9 yards per game. Running back Tevin Coleman is currently the nation’s leading rusher, averaging 170.3 yards per game. As a team, Indiana has rushed for at least 200 yards in every game this season, over 300 yards three times, and over 400 yards once.

The passing game, however, is right on par with Michigan’s. The Hoosiers average 170.4 yards per game through the air, which ranks 112th nationally. Comparatively, Michigan averages 169.5 and ranks 114th. In four of seven games, IU has thrown for fewer than 130 yards, including the 11 yards against Michigan State two weeks ago. Michigan won’t hold Diamont to 11 passing yards this weekend, but with Sudfeld out the Hoosiers will stick to the ground game.

Defensively, Indiana is one of the nation’s worst like it usually has been under Wilson. The 34.9 points allowed per game ranks 105th. The only opponent Indiana has held below 24 points was FCS foe Indiana State, which scored 10. Three of seven opponents have scored at least 40 points.

Indiana is allowing 133 more total yards per game than Michigan (59.5 more rushing yards and 73.4 more passing yards). After holding Indiana State to 30 yards on 24 carries in Week 1, IU’s rush defense had been holding up pretty well until allowing Michigan State to rush for 330 yards and five touchdowns two weeks ago. The pass defense, however, has given up over 300 yards in four of seven games, including 395 to Bowling Green and 361 to Maryland.

The Hoosiers are also pretty solid with special teams defense, ranking 33rd on kickoff returns and 36th on punt returns compared to Michigan’s 51st and 109th. They aren’t as good the other way, however, ranking 116th in kick return yardage and 82nd on punt returns.

Indiana presents a great opportunity for Michigan to get back on the winning track, especially offensively. But as we saw last year, a record-breaking performance against Indiana doesn’t ensure continued success. This year it will just be one more step toward bowl eligibility.

Key Players
Passing Comp-Att Yards TD INT Average/Game
Nate Sudfeld (out) 101-167 1,151 6 3 191.8
Zander Diamont 5-15 11 0 0 11.0
Rushing Attempts Yards TD Long Average/Carry
Tevin Coleman 135 1,192 11 83 8.8
D’Angelo Roberts 83 416 5 47 5.0
Devine Redding 25 115 1 16 4.6
Nate Sudfeld (QB – out) 36 98 2 17 2.7
Receiving Receptions Yards TD Long Average/Game
Shane Wynn 27 424 2 76 60.6
Nick Stoner 18 177 1 47 25.3
Tevin Coleman (RB) 17 140 0 44 20.0
J-Shun Harris II 14 139 2 33 19.9
Simmie Cobbs 5 99 0 34 14.1
Defense Solo Assisted Total Tackles TFL-Yds Sacks-Yds
T.J. Simmons (LB) 24 19 43 2.5-6 1.0-4
David Cooper (LB) 17 18 35 1.0-3 0-0
Forisse Hardin (LB) 18 14 32 3.5-15 1.0-6
Nate Hoff (DT) 10 9 19 5.0-20 2.0-12
Bobby Richardson (DT) 14 3 17 4.5-35 4.0-33
Kicking FG Made FG Att Long XP Made XP Att
Aaron Del Grosso 1 4 23 12 12
Griffin Oakes 4 5 58 14 14
Punting Punts Yds Avg. In-20 50+
Erich Toth 40 1,652 41.3 11 4
Full Stats

Stay tuned for more on Indiana in the coming days.