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Posts Tagged ‘Hawaii’

The numbers game: Run game makes big plays in Week 1

Thursday, September 8th, 2016


chris-evans(Isaiah Hole, 247 Sports)

The Hawaii game went about as expected, save for that pick on Wilton Speight’s first throw, and while it won’t tell us much we don’t already know I thought we could look at the big plays (for and against) and the toxic differential to see how Michigan compares to their first game last year and the 2015 season overall. This will be a running feature throughout the season.

Last year, Michigan opened up on the road against a very good Utah team. Obviously, Hawaii did not present the same challenges as the Utes did a year ago, so take these comparisons with grain of salt.

Against Utah in 2015, Michigan had zero big runs (10 or more yards) and only three big passes (20 or more yards) amongst their 72 offensive plays, yielding a paltry 4.1 percent big play percentage (not very good). The Utes, by comparison, had five big run plays and two big pass plays, yielding a decent but not spectacular 10 percent big play percentage. Michigan lost the big play battle seven to three and lost the turnover battle three to one, giving them a minus-6 toxic differential for the game. It’s tough to win the game when you lose the turnover battle and it’s just about impossible when losing both the turnover battle and the big play battle.

Now for some good news.

This year, Michigan came storming out of the gates. Quality of opponent caveats apply, but last Saturday went about as well as it should have against a team like Hawaii. Michigan had 11 big run plays and three big pass plays amongst their 59 total plays for a big play percentage of 23.7 percent, good for third nationally after Week 1. On the other side of the ball Michigan gave up four big run plays and two big pass plays for a big play against percentage of 10 percent, good for 72nd nationally — not great but one less big play than they gave up in last year’s opener.

Michigan’s big play differential (big play percentage for minus big play percentage against) was 13.7 percent, good for 8th best nationally. Michigan won the total big play battle fourteen to six and the turnover battle two to one for a total toxic differential (big plays for minus big plays against plus turnover margin) of 9, tied for 13th best.

Michigan 2015 vs 2016 Week 1 comparison
Year Big Run Plays Big Pass Plays Total Big Plays Big Play % Big Play Diff Toxic Diff
2016 (Hawaii) 11 3 14 23.7% 13.7% 9
2015 (Utah) 0 3 3 4.1% -5.9% -6

Ohio State always seems to fare well in these metrics and currently sits atop the nation with a toxic differential of 19 (19 big plays for, 2 big plays given up, and a plus-2 turnover margin). Michigan is gaining ground, but the Buckeyes are still ahead for now.

Of course, one game is not a sufficient sample size and comparing it to the 2015 opener is not equal (Utah is much better than Hawaii hopes to be) but we can still look at these numbers and compare them to 2015 as a whole for a pseudo gauge of improvement and speculate on how that might look going forward.

For a refresher, here are Michigan’s big play numbers (on a per game basis) both for and given up..

Michigan’s 2015 offense averaged 3.6 big run plays per game (118th) and 3.7 big pass plays per game (40th) for a total of 7.3 big plays per game (100th) with a big play percentage of 10.49 percent (98th). Against Hawaii those numbers, again, were 11 and three.

If you’ll recall the look back at Harbaugh’s San Francisco 49ers days you’ll remember that the passing game wasn’t the area which saw drastic improvement. In fact, it regressed then bounced back to just a bit better than pre-Harbaugh. The Hawaii game is showing just that, a big improvement in big plays in the run game and a slight regression in big plays for the passing game. Of course, these big running play numbers are not likely to continue — only three teams averaged over 10 big run plays per game in 2015 and only nine teams even averaged more than eight per game — but it is promising to think about how this might pan out over the course of a full season.

Passing game numbers shouldn’t be anything to worry about. This won’t be a team that has a lot of them as the strength will be in the run game. If they can maintain their 2015 average of about 3.5 big pass plays per game while experiencing an uptick in big run plays (the 1-2-3 punch of De’Veon Smith, Ty Isaac, and Chris Evans tells me they will) Michigan should be able to top their 2015 total big plays per game (7.3) en route to a very exciting season. Remember, if they can manage just one more big play per game than last year that would (in theory) put them in the top 10 for most big plays per game.

Michigan’s Week 1 big plays
Quarter Down & Distance Player Yards Gained Run/Pass
1 1st and 10 Jehu Chesson 15 Run
1 3rd and 7 Wilton Speight to Amara Darboh 31 Pass
1 2nd and 9 Wilton Speight to Jehu Chesson 21 Pass
1 1st and 10 De’Veon Smith 14 Run
1 1st and 10 Ty Isaac 12 Run
2 2nd and 5 Chris Evans 21 Run
2 1st and 10 Eddie McDoom 15 Run
2 1st and 10 Chris Evans 18 (TD) Run
3 2nd and 7 Wilton Speight to Maurice Ways 22 Pass
3 1st and 10 Chris Evans 43 (TD) Run
3 3rd and 2 Eddie McDoom 19 Run
3 1st and 10 Karan Higdon 19 Run
4 2nd and 11 Shane Morris 14 Run
4 2nd and 3 Kingston Davis 10 Run

In 2015, the Michigan defense gave up an average of 4.8 big run plays per game and 2.4 big pass plays per game, good for 56th and 13th nationally. Based on total number of plays Michigan gave up a big play 11.49 percent of the time — 59th nationally. All told, Michigan gave up 7.2 big plays per game, good for 25th nationally.

Giving up four big run plays and two big pass plays to Hawaii falls in line right about where I expected them to, about one less big play given up per game than last year. Now before we run for the hills saying this is Hawaii and they should have not allowed ANY big plays let’s calm down for a minute. Only seven teams gave up fewer than six total big plays per game in 2015, and one was coached by Don Brown. Another was some national champion down in Alabama. I’m told they tend to field elite defensive units and have a couple trophies hanging around. And let’s not forget that Michigan was running out their second and third string players for most of the second half, along with seventeen total true freshmen. It’s not the end of the world to have given up six big plays to Hawaii. In fact, I expected them to have given up more as they worked out new system kinks and let a lot of guys get experience, so all in all I think we should be happy with that number.

To sum it up, Hawaii wasn’t very good but the numbers Michigan put up were exactly what we should expect this team to do against inferior opponents and we didn’t always get that in the past. As each week goes by we’ll add more pieces to our puzzle and by the time the Michigan State game rolls around we should have a very good idea at how explosive this offense is and how good at preventing explosive plays the defense is. My prediction based on flimsy evidence: it will be a top 20 unit in big play for/against metrics.

Looking forward to UCF, I will just look at their first game stats. Our good buddy Scott Frost is new there so comparing this team to last year’s isn’t really worth our time. UCF’s offense had six big run plays (43rd) and five big pass plays (19th) for a total of 11 big plays (39th) and a big play percentage of 12.1 percent (61st). On the other side of the ball — and keep in mind they played an FCS team — they surrendered three big run plays (33rd) and two big pass plays (40th) for a total of five big plays (30th) with a big play against percentage of 7.1 percent (33rd). They won the turnover battle three to two and their toxic differential after one game is 7, good for 28th in the country. Given their level of competition this still impressive, especially since UCF hadn’t won a game since Brady Hoke was Michigan’s head coach.

Unrelated, I was slightly surprised Michigan did not take their foot off the gas in the second half as they often did last year in blowouts. It wasn’t a complete surprise as Harbaugh once famously went for two after a touchdown against USC since he wanted to put 50 on them, but it just might be a message to the rest of the country that Michigan isn’t playing around this season. That leads me to wonder what will happen against UCF and Frost, the former Nebraska quarterback. My gut tells me Harbaugh won’t take his foot off the gas in this one either!

#7 Michigan 63 – Hawaii 3: Opening statement

Monday, September 5th, 2016


WoodleyWoodsonHarbaughJordanJeter(MGoBlue.com)

The dream of any quarterback is to win the starting job, take the field on opening day and immediately lead the team down the field. Those dreams then continue with a national championship, being drafted first in the NFL Draft, winning the Super Bowl, and being elected into the Hall of Fame. But for Michigan quarterback Wilton Speight, the dream started off unlike he had ever imagined it would.

“I don’t think that’s how he wanted to start his career,” said junior center Mason Cole. “He probably pictured it a thousand ways and that probably wasn’t one of them. But he’s fine. I don’t know what happened on that play but he threw a pick and he got over it. Next drive he came out and drove it 98 yards.”

The junior from Richmond, Va., who won the starting job in fall camp over fellow junior John O’Korn, took the first snap of Michigan’s season at his own 29 yard line, rolled to his right and fired a pass toward senior tight end Jake Butt. But with Hawaii defensive back Damien Packer dropping back into coverage, the pass never had a chance to reach Butt, and suddenly Michigan’s defense was back on the field.

“Obviously that wasn’t the start I was imagining,” Speight said after the game. “I was kind of rolling to our sideline and my momentum carried me right into Coach. He just grabbed me and held me and kind of starting laughing.”

The defense stood tall with a three-and-out and Harbaugh’s commitment to Speight never wavered. Michigan re-took possession on its own 2-yard line and this time Speight looked like a seasoned veteran, marching the Wolverines 98 yards in 11 plays for the game’s first touchdown. On the drive, Speight converted a 3rd-and-7 from the Michigan five with a 16-yard bullet to Jehu Chesson. He also hit Amara Darboh on a screen for a 31-yard pickup on 3rd-and-7 from the 39. He closed the drive with a perfecly thrown fade to Grant Perry for a 12-yard touchdown.

UM-Hawaii_small-FINAL
Final Stats
Michigan Hawaii
Score 63 3
Record 1-0 0-2
Total Yards 512 232
Net Rushing Yards 306 81
Net Passing Yards 206 151
First Downs 26 16
Turnovers 1 2
Penalties-Yards 3-33 8-60
Punts-Yards 0-0 6-256
Time of Possession 27:55 32:05
Third Down Conversions 7-of-7 1-of-11
Fourth Down Conversions 0-of-0 1-of-2
Sacks By-Yards 4-41 0-0
Field Goals 0-for-0 1-for-1
PATs 9-for-9 0-for-0
Red Zone Scores-Chances 6-of-6 0-of-1
Red Zone Scores-TDs 6-of-6 0-of-1
Full Box Score

Harbaugh never thought twice about his decision to leave Speight in the game after the interception and said that he used it as an opportunity.

“It’s very difficult to throw an interception on a series and then come right back and lead a touchdown drive on the following series,” Harbaugh said after the game. “It’s something I’ve always been fascinated in watching (with quarterbacks) and the really good ones can do that. They can think (too much and say) ‘I’m not going to make another bad mistake.’ That’s what some do. Good ones don’t.

“And then to see him start the next drive on the 2-yard line. I mean, that’s as much adversity as you can have for a quarterback starting a series. You’ve thrown an interception in the first throw of the game and then you find yourself on the 2-yard line. But he responded.”

Two hours later, when the clock read zero and Michigan had collected a 63-3 victory — the seventh-largest in school history and the largest since 1975 — Speight’s interception remained one of the few mistakes the Wolverines made all day. Harbaugh said afterward that he didn’t see a single mistake defensively for the first two-and-a-half quarters…

“Watching our defense go through the first half, and even the third quarter, there wasn’t a mistake made,” Harbaugh said. “There wasn’t a linemen mistake made. There wasn’t a stance alignment mistake. They were right with their eyes and right with their feet.”

In a season opener, no one truly knows what to expect. It’s why most good teams front-load their schedule with cupcakes, to work out the kinks before the real season — conference play — begins. But aside from Speight’s first pass, it was as perfect a season opener as one could expect.

Playing in front of a who’s who of sporting greats — Michael Jordan, Derek Jeter, and Charles Woodson — Harbaugh used a program record 17 true freshmen. Eleven different players carried the ball, 11 different players caught a pass, four different quarterbacks played, and three lead scoring drives. For just the fourth time in program history, Michigan went an entire game without punting. Only four of Michigan’s 59 plays for the game — Speight’s interception on the first play and three running plays to run out the clock — were not part of touchdown drives.

The defense, which entered the season with expectations to be one among the nation’s best, lived up to its billing, holding Hawaii to negative yards until midway through the second quarter, and only about 140 total yards until the vast majority of defenders on the field were freshmen and backups. Michigan’s secondary, which was playing without All-American cornerback Jourdan Lewis, who was held out due to injury — not only picked off two passes but returned them both for touchdowns.

Season openers against overmatched opponents are typically boring affairs, but even as the lead continued to widen, this one kept interest throughout. It was evident that there is more talent and more depth on this team than Michigan has fielded in a decade. It was evident that the 2016 recruiting class was ranked so highly for a reason.

True freshman Chris Evans backed up the fall camp hype with 112 yards and two touchdowns on just eight carries. Fellow true freshman Eddie McDoom flashed his speed, taking two end arounds for 34 yards and also caught a pair of passes. Kekoa Crawford caught an 18-yard pass and freshman tight end Sean McKeon caught two passes. Ben Bredeson didn’t start, but showed his talent on the offensive line, while mammoth freshman Michael Onwenu played on both lines. The nation’s top recruit, Rashan Gary, notched three tackles in his debut and looked like he fit the part.

It was a blowout, yes, but aside from injuries to Bryan Mone (leg), Taco Charlton (ankle), and De’Veon Smith (ribs), it had everything a Michigan fan could want to see from a season opener. Speight looked good enough after the interception and it remains to be seen whether he can build on it. And his coach thinks he can.

“It bodes really well for his career,” Harbaugh said. “To have done that, off an interception and then have the very next drive go 98 yards for a touchdown. Now he knows he can do it. Now we can expect him to do it.”

Game ball – Offense

Chris Evans (8 carries, 112 yards, 2 touchdowns)
World, meet Chris Evans. The freshman out of Ben Davis High School in Indianapolis, Ind. showed the quickness and burst that Michigan hasn’t seen out of the backfield in years. While senior De’Veon Smith started the game and fellow senior Ty Isaac was the second back in, Evans made his mark early. On Michigan’s third series and his first carry was a 7-yard gain on 3rd-and-2 to help set up Michigan’s second touchdown. On the next series he raced 21 yards to put Michigan in the red zone and set up another touchdown. One series later, he found the endzone himself from 18 yards out. He then got the scoring started in the second half with a 43-yard run that showcased his burst as he hit the hole and outraced everyone to the endzone.

After the game, Harbaugh praised Evans as a special football player who will have a much bigger role as the season goes on. Harbaugh noted that he didn’t even show everything he can do, such as catch passes out of the backfield, line up in the slot, and return kicks. He may not replace Jabrill Peppers on offense, but he fits the same role and provides the same type of athleticism that can make a good offense that much better.

Game ball – Defense

Mike McCray (9 tackles, 3.5 tackles for loss, 2 sacks, 1 forced fumble)
Injuries have kept Mike McCray off the field so far in his career, but now finally healthy he showed what he’s capable of. In his first career start, McCray lead the team with nine tackles, 3.5 for loss, and two sacks. His speed was a noticeable upgrade from last year’s linebacking corps as he was seemingly in on every play and all over the Hawaii backfield. If McCray can stay healthy and keep up that level of play, one of the only question marks about Michigan’s defense will be much less of a question.

 

M&GB staff predictions: Hawaii

Friday, September 2nd, 2016


StaffPicks_banner20152

Michigan opens its season against Hawaii tomorrow, which means it’s time for our staff to make our picks. Last season, Sam collected the most weekly wins (five) and Derick won the season-long point spread title, just three points better than Justin. Here are our picks for tomorrow’s game:

Justin
Staff Predictions
Michigan Hawaii
Justin 52 10
Derick 45 7
Sam 48 7
Josh 45 13
Joe 49 3
M&GB Average 48 8

Cal quarterback Davis Webb showed Michigan how to carve apart a porous Hawaii defense, but with Wilton Speight making his first career start, it’s a safe bet to assume he won’t be given the opportunity to chuck it up 54 times. Instead, Jim Harbaugh will look to make a statement on the ground and Michigan fans will get their first chance to see how much the offensive line has improved — although that won’t be truly evident until the Wolverines face a good team.

Last season, Hawaii traveled to Columbus and hung with Ohio State in the first half, trailing just 14-0 at halftime, but the Buckeyes wore them down for a 38-0 route. With a better offense under Rolovich this season, Hawaii would like to at least put some points on the board, but Michigan features one of the nation’s best defenses. I don’t think Michigan gets the shutout here, but I don’t think it’ll be close either.

Michigan scores early and often, Speight looks crisp and make smart decisions, the running back trio of De’Veon Smith, Ty Isaac, and Chris Evans wear down Hawaii’s defense for over 250 yards, and Michigan rolls to an easy victory. The defense allows 10 points just as it did the last time Harbaugh faced Hawaii, as a quarterback in 1986, but the offense scores more than the 27 it did back then.

Michigan 52 – Hawaii 10

Derick

For the first time in almost a decade, Michigan kicks off the football season with championship expectations. The Wolverines are ranked in the preseason top 10 and have enough talent to play with any team in the conference on any given day.

The road begins with a home matchup against Hawaii. The Rainbow Warriors were awful last season and already got waxed by California in their opener last week. Their greatest weakness in 2015 was defending the run, and Michigan will want to force the issue on the ground Saturday, especially if it builds a big lead. If things get ugly, expect to see some of the athletic freshmen Jim Harbaugh is so excited about.

On offense, Hawaii faces the tall task of blocking a Michigan front loaded with NFL talent. Redshirt senior quarterback Ikaika Woolsey took over the starting job this season, so star defensive backs Jourdan Lewis and Delano Hill will be looking to capitalize on any mistakes. Pay attention to how Michigan uses Jabrill Peppers, who moved to linebacker but could move all over the field.

Michigan will probably get ahead early and turn to the ground game to speed up the clock. I see the Wolverines winning big.

Michigan 45 – Hawaii 7

Sam

As Jim Harbaugh recently pointed out, college football is one of the few sports that has no preseason. If we’re being honest with ourselves, however, Michigan will open their Path to the Playoffs with something that should closely mimic an exhibition. All signs point to Wilton Speight leading an offense riddled with playmakers onto the field while captain Chris Wormley will trot out alongside a potentially devastating defense. Tomorrow, we’ll get our long-awaited first look at some touted prospects (looking at you, Rashan), our first taste of Michigan Football in Fall 2016, and our first glimpse of what we all hope is a special year in Harbaugh’s second season home. If the game isn’t decided by halftime, I’d be shocked. I’ll take Michigan.

Michigan 48 – Hawaii 7

Josh

Hawaii is not a very good team overall, but they did manage to put up a total of 12 big plays (8 run and 4 pass) on Cal last week. No, Cal does not have the best defense but the potential is there. So I went back and watched the game and about half of those big runs and all of the big pass plays aren’t ones that would have gone very far against Michigan.

Running back Diocemy Saint Juste’s 54-yard touchdown was aided by not one but two defensive linemen having him dead to rights and missing tackles behind the line and several linebackers and defensive backs taking bad angles and just plain whiffing. Michigan would have had Saint Juste for a loss. That said, breakdowns happen and Michigan hasn’t had any actual live fire, if you will, with their new defense. I think Hawaii will bust a few big runs that will lead to a score or two.

Michigan will win this handily, that is not in doubt, but I’m interested in seeing a few things as the ‘kinks’ are worked out with a new quarterback and a new defensive scheme.

When Michigan has the ball: What is their run/pass balance? I think we’ll see more runs than pass attempts (since there are several running backs that could be contributors this year) but I don’t expect anything exotic. Harbaugh will keep things close to the vest, as he does, and much like last year he’ll roll out new wrinkles every week. What is Wilton Speight’s (assuming internet rumors are true) command of the offense? I was never in the ‘O’Korn as the heir apparent’ camp. I think Speight’s floor is much higher and Harbaugh was going to sacrifice upside for a steady hand at quarterback given the defense they have. I think Speight will look better than most expect — not late season Rudock but definitely better than early to mid-season Rudock. I think we’ll see something we can all get behind and say “this guy can lead us to a Big Ten title” but not a “holy cow this guy is gonna break all the passing records.” And I’m fine with that.

When Hawaii has the ball, I don’t expect a ton of blitzes. Some, yes, but not a lot. Again, Harbaugh is gonna keep things close to the vest. I mean, this is the guy who refused to give Hawaii some scrimmage tape before the game, so why would he tip his hand to future opponents? I am very interested in seeing how Rashan Gary plays, as we all are, but more importantly I want to see how much havoc the defensive line as a whole creates. If they can be who we think they can be then the linebacker depth/experience does not become an issue later on. Yes, caveats apply here as Hawaii is not very good but if Michigan is not completely dominant then I might have some concerns.

On the back end I’d like to see a pick or two. Ikaiaka Woolsey is not an accurate passer (50 percent) and if he’s being pressured I think we’ll see a few errant throws. Michigan needs to take advantage of these opportunities this year. Remember, only SIX teams forced fewer turnovers than Michigan did in 2015. If they want to compete for a playoff spot that has to change, and taking advantage of opportunities to pick off some passes is where it will likely come.

Harbaugh is not opposed to playing his starters deep into games nor is he afraid to run up the score (ask Pete Carroll or Rutgers) but I think we’ll see plenty of the back-ups in the fourth quarter of this one.

Michigan 45 – Hawaii 13

Joe

It’s really here.  I can’t believe we start the season in less than 24 hours. The build-up has been like nothing I’ve ever seen as a Michigan fan and I hope it lives up to the hype.  I think this one goes Michigan’s way from the first play and is lead by a stout defensive line. They will get after a tired Hawaii team from the very start.  We will see a constant rotation of bigger, stronger, and faster Wolverines against an inferior Hawaii squad.

Coach Brown will attack initially and try and set the tone to build on. I think we will see a lot of pressure from the linebacking corps as well as the defensive line. This will lead to several turnovers and give the good guys great field position.

As far as the offense goes, I think Speight will get the nod and lead the Wolverines to several first quarter touchdowns. Michigan will establish the running game and wear down the Rainbows with an elite offensive line. This one gets ugly early and fun to watch late as the Wolverines win big.

Michigan 49 – Hawaii 3

#7 Michigan vs Hawaii game preview

Friday, September 2nd, 2016


UM-Hawaii game preview header

Previously this week: First Look: Hawaii, Tailgate Tuesday: Cedar planked scotch eggs, Five-Spot Challenge, Hawaii game poster, A word from our sponsors, History says Michigan’s “Harbaughfense” will be more explosive in Year 2

A long and eventful offseason full of National Signing Day spectacles and satellite camps, Jim Harbaugh subtweets and rap videos, first pitches and White House meetings, finally comes to an end tomorrow. Michigan kicks off its 2016 season against the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors at high noon in Michigan Stadium.

UM-Hawaii_small
Quick Facts
Michigan Stadium – 12p.m. EST – ESPN
Hawaii Head Coach: Nick Rolovich (1st season)
Coaching Record: 0-1
Offensive Coordinators: Brian Smith (1st season)
Craig Stutzmann (1st season)
Defensive Coordinator: Kevin Lempa (1st season)
Last Season: 3-10 (0-8)
Last Meeting: Michigan 48 – UH 17 (1998)
All-Time Series: Michigan leads 2-0
Record in Ann Arbor: First meeting
Jim Harbaugh vs Hawaii 1st meeting as a coach
Last Michigan win: 1998 (48-17)
Last Hawaii win: Never
Current Streak: Michigan 2

While Harbaugh has dominated the headlines since the 2015 season ended with a Citrus Bowl thumping of SEC East champion Florida, new Hawaii head coach Nick Rolovich has done his part to get in on the action. In May, after Harbaugh announced a satellite camp in Hawaii, Rolovich jokingly tweeted out a flyer for his own camp at “Dockers High School” in Michigan. He also issued a challenge to Harbaugh for a pre-game quarterback battle. Rolovich was a star quarterback at Hawaii a decade ago. Harbaugh, who worked the Hawaii satellite camp alongside Rolovich, told media this week that he would be open to it.

At the beginning of this week, Rolovich said that he asked Harbaugh to give Hawaii some scrimmage film to even the playing field since Hawaii already played a game — they lost 51-31 to California in Sydney, Australia last Friday — but Harbaugh declined. Of course, the media took the denial and ran with it, but Rolovich claimed yesterday that he was just joking. He then tweeted an apology to Harbaugh.

Tomorrow, the non-football shenanigans come to an end and both Harbaugh and Rolovich will face off on opposing sidelines. So what can we expect? As mentioned above, we’ve already had a chance to see Hawaii in action in a game that yielded 82 combined points, over 1,100 combined yards, and 57 combined first downs. Although they came out on the losing end, the offensive performance was at least enough to excite Hawaii fans after a 3-10 season a year ago.

In that opening loss to Cal, Hawaii piled up 482 total yards of offense including 248 rushing yards on 6.5 yards per carry. But before you get worried about whether Michigan’s defense can stop them, consider that Cal’s defense ranked 108th nationally last season in total defense and 105th against the run. Michigan’s, of course, ranked fourth and 16th, respectively.

The main reason for excitement tomorrow based on Hawaii’s first game is the performance of their defense. Hawaii surrendered 630 total yards including 441 through the air and didn’t force a turnover. That fits right in line with their 2015 defense, which allowed 35.6 points (105th) and 448.8 yards (104th) per game.

So what can we expect tomorrow? Let’s take a look at the matchups.

When Hawaii has the ball

Last season, the Hawaii offense ranked 120th nationally last season in total offense (316.3 yards per game), 118th in scoring (17.6 points per game), 115th in rushing (123.9 yards per game), 98th in passing (192.4 yards per game), and 118th in team passing efficiency (97.08). But with nine returning starters, Rolovich and co-offensive coordinators Brian Smith and Craig Stutzmann should be able to improve on those numbers.

It starts with senior quarterback Ikaika Woolsey, who has 19 career starts under his belt but split time with USC transfer Max Wittek last season. While Wittek started the first eight games and completed just 47.2 percent of his passes for seven touchdowns and 15 interceptions, Woolsey took over for the last five and fared slightly better with a 49 percent completion percentage for five touchdowns and six picks. Woolsey completed 17-of-34 passes for 234 yards, one touchdown, and one interception against Cal. He also rushed six times for 33 yards.

The backfield returns its top five rushers, including Woolsey, most notably fifth-year senior Paul Harris, who became the first Hawaii back to eclipse 1,000 yards in a season since 2010. His 1,132 yards and 5.7 average was the highlight of Hawaii’s offense that still ranked 115th nationally on the ground. That’s because there wasn’t much behind him. But Harris barely saw the field last Friday. It was redshirt junior Diocemy Saint Juste who stole the show. An injury in fall camp kept Saint Juste out of last season, but he returned with 14 carries for 118 yards (8.4 ypc) and a touchdown against Cal. Senior Steven Lakalaka carried 11 times for 61 yards and a score, while Harris managed 36 yards and a touchdown on seven carries.

If Woolsey can prove to be efficient passer the Rainbow Warriors should be able to improve on their 98th-ranked passing offense with nine of their top 10 receivers returning. Senior Marcus Kemp and redshirt sophomores Devan Stubblefield and Dylan Collie weren’t quite the three-headed monster in 2015 that Michigan had with Jehu Chesson, Amara Darboh, and Jake Butt, but they caught a combined 95 passes for 1,256 yards and seven touchdowns. Stubblefield didn’t play against Cal, but Kemp lead the team with 73 yards and one touchdown on four receptions. Redshirt freshman John Ursua caught five passes for 70 yards.

The offensive line had to replaced left tackle Ben Clarke, who started 50 career games, but returned four starters with a combined 66 career starts between them. Redshirt junior Dejon Allen slides over to left tackle after starting 12 games at right guard and one at left guard a year ago. With redshirt sophomore Asotui Eli, who started 11 games at center last season, moving to right guard, the big question mark will likely be at center where fifth-year senior Leo Koloamatangi stepped in with seven career starts. Redshirt junior John Wa’a remained at left guard where he started one game last season and two in 2014. Fifth-year senior R.J. Hollis is back at right tackle after starting all 13 games there in 2015.

When Michigan has the ball

While the Hawaii offense was bad in 2015, the defense was not much better. It ranked 104th nationally in total defense (448.8 yards per game), 105th in scoring defense (35.6 points per game), 118th in rush defense (239.8 yards per game), 42nd in passing yards allowed (208.9 yards per game), and 104th in pass defense efficiency (143.42).

The only real connection between Michigan and Hawaii comes in the form of the new defensive coordinator Rolovich brought in. Kevin Lempa was the defensive backs coach at Boston College the past three seasons under new Michigan defensive coordinator Don Brown. He’ll know Brown’s philosophies and aim to bring some of them to Hawaii. Their Boston College defense led the nation in 2015 and the pass defense ranked sixth.

The best player on Hawaii’s defense last season, defensive end Kennedy Tulimasealli, was arrested twice over the offseason and subsequently dismissed from the team in June. Tulimasealli ranked second in the MWC with 18.5 tackles for loss. Nobody else returning had more than 4.5.

Fifth-year senior Mekani Kema-Kaleiwaher and redshirt junior David Manoa are the starting ends, while redshirt freshman Manly Williams will rotate in. Kema-Kaleiwaher notched a sack against Cal while Manoa managed just one tackle. Fifth-year senior nose tackle Kory Rasmussen is the lone returning starter on the front line and his 4.5 tackles for loss last season are the second-most of any returning player. He made three tackles last Friday. The other tackle spot belongs to sophomore Zeno Choi, who played sparingly a year ago.

Redshirt sophomore Jahlani Tavai moved from end to middle linebacker this season. His five tackles for loss and three sacks lead all returning players and he picked up right where he left off by leading the team with 12 tackles against Cal, including one for loss. Fifth-year senior outside linebacker Jerrol Garcia-Williams was the leading tackler in 2015, but was suspended for the Cal game. In his place was junior Russell Williams, who recorded five tackles, one for loss. Redshirt sophomore Malachi Mageo is the SAM linebacker but managed just three tackles last week.

The secondary is thin but did return some talent and was supposed to be the relative strength of the defense. A pair of fifth-year seniors should hold down the corner spots. Jalen Rogers started seven games last season and ranked third on the team with five pass breakups, while Jamal Mayo played in all 13 games as a reserve and broke up two passes. They combined for 13 tackles against Cal and Rogers had one pass breakup. Junior strong safety Daniel Lewis Jr. returns with 13 career starts, but like Garcia-Williams, sat out the Cal game with a suspension. Fifth-year senior Damien Packer started in his place and made 10 tackles. Free safety Trayvon Henderson returned from an injury that limited him to just two games last season. He ranked second on the team with 63 tackles in 2014 and also picked off a pair of passes. Against Cal, he tied Tavai for the team lead with 12 tackles.

The other third

If there’s one unit that was somewhat respectable in 2015 it was the special teams unit, which ranked 60th nationally in kick returns (21.32 yards per return), 71st in punt returns (7.73 yards per return), sixth in net punting (41.51 yards per punt), and 31st in special teams efficiency. Hawaii didn’t cover kicks very well (111th in kick return defense and 99th in punt return defense) but at least they were fairly good at something.

Senior Rigoberto Sanchez handled everything kick related in 2015, going 8-of-11 on field goals with a long of 50, 23-of-24 on PATs, punting 74 times for an average of 45.1 yards, and handling kickoff duties. Last week, he made his only field goal attempt, from 42 yards, made all four extra point attempts, and punted four times for an average of 37.3 yards.

Redshirt junior receiver Keelan Ewaliko is back to return kicks after averaging 26.3 yards per return last season, while Ursua will get a chance to show what he can do on punt returns. Ewaliko returned five kickoffs against Cal but averaged just 18.4 yards. Harris returned three for an average of 17.7.

Prediction

Cal quarterback Davis Webb showed Michigan how to carve apart a porous Hawaii defense, but with Wilton Speight making his first career start, it’s a safe bet to assume he won’t be given the opportunity to chuck it up 54 times. Instead, Jim Harbaugh will look to make a statement on the ground and Michigan fans will get their first chance to see how much the offensive line has improved — although that won’t be truly evident until the Wolverines face a good team.

Last season, Hawaii traveled to Columbus and hung with Ohio State in the first half, trailing just 14-0 at halftime, but the Buckeyes wore them down for a 38-0 route. With a better offense under Rolovich this season, Hawaii would like to at least put some points on the board, but Michigan features one of the nation’s best defenses. I don’t think Michigan gets the shutout here, but I don’t think it’ll be close either.

Michigan scores early and often, Speight looks crisp and make smart decisions, the running back trio of De’Veon Smith, Ty Isaac, and Chris Evans wear down Hawaii’s defense for over 250 yards, and Michigan rolls to an easy victory. The defense allows 10 points just as it did the last time Harbaugh faced Hawaii, as a quarterback in 1986, but the offense scores more than the 27 it did back then.

Michigan 55 – Hawaii 10

New arrival: Hawaii game poster

Wednesday, August 31st, 2016


GamePoster-2016-Hawaii

English writer Charles Caleb Colton — or was it Melania Trump? — once said that imitation is the sincerest form of flattery. Although it’s an Ohio State blog, Eleven Warriors is a great one…if you’re into that sort of thing. One of the things we’ve long enjoyed from a design standpoint is the fantastic weekly game posters that they have produced the past few seasons. So we thought we would join in on the fun.

Our weekly game posters are designed by Christian Elden, a designer and illustrator who happens to be a Michigan fan. He lives in northwest Ohio where he runs his own design firm. He has illustrated a picture book for Warner Press and has been featured in Focus on the Family’s Clubhouse Jr. Magazine. Visit his personal site to view some of his other works.

Our inaugural game poster is minimally designed to highlight the uniqueness of Michigan football becoming the first college football program to don Jordan Brand. After nearly a decade with adidas, which has come to represent an era of losing for many Michigan fans, the return of Nike and more specifically Jordan Brand — as was demonstrated in the early hours of Aug. 1 — is a figurative pot of gold…or maize…or amarillo.

These are designed for you to download, save, and share. If you want to print out as an actual poster you can download the high-res version. It should be good to print up to 18×24. We hope you enjoy.

Five Spot Challenge 2016: Hawaii

Tuesday, August 30th, 2016


The Five-Spot Challenge is back for yet another season. If you’ve played before, you know how it works. If you haven’t, here’s how it works. At the beginning of each week throughout the season we post five questions (sometimes more for big games) pertaining to that week’s game and you submit your answers before kickoff. The point differentials are added up and the contestant with the lowest differential is the weekly winner. Standings are kept throughout the season and the contestant with the lowest combined differential wins the grand prize.

This season, the weekly winners will receive a box of product and goods from our sponsors: Lane’s BBQ, Cultivate Coffee & Tap House, and possibly more. It’s kind of like the Maize and Go Blue version of Birchbox, Trunk Club, etc. The season-long winner will receive a pair of tickets to next season’s home opener against Cincinnati.

And so without further adieu, we present this week’s questions:

First Look: Hawaii

Monday, August 29th, 2016


Hawaii dance

Game week is finally here. In five days, Michigan will kick off Year 2 of the Jim Harbaugh era against the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors. While Michigan fans will finally get their first look at the Wolverines, Hawaii already has a game under their belt. Like Michigan last season, Hawaii lead off the college football season, this time with a game against California in Sydney, Australia. And like Michigan last season, it ended in a loss.

Cal beat Hawaii 51-31 on Friday night in a game that didn’t feature much defense from either team. The two offenses piled up over 1,100 total yards, 57 first downs, and 82 points. That’s not surprising given that the two teams ranked 118th and 108th in total defense a year ago.

Any hopes that new Hawaii head coach Nick Rolovich had of an improved defense were put on hold for at least another week. Hawaii allowed 630 total yards including 441 through the air. Hawaii’s pass defense was actually respectable in 2015, ranking 42nd nationally, but Texas Tech transfer quarterback Davis Webb carved up the Rainbow Warrior secondary for 441 yards and four touchdowns while completing 70 percent of his passes. Michigan’s receiving corps will be licking its chops after seeing the performance of Cal receiver Chad Hansen, who caught 14 passes for 160 yards and two scores.

Offensively, Hawaii managed 482 total yards, which was more than they had in any game last season. But after a strong first quarter, Hawaii’s offense faded away until the game was well out of reach. Quarterback Ikaika Woolsey completed 17-of34 passes for 234 yards, one touchdown, and one interception, while running back Diocemy Saint Juste rushed for 118 yards and a score on 14 carries (8.4 yards per carry).

Simply looking at Hawaii’s offensive stats shows reason for hope this season, but the defense is still a sieve and it’s hard to see that changing against Michigan this weekend.

Since Michigan has yet to play a game, let’s take a look at how Michigan and Hawaii’s stats compared in 2015.

Hawaii 2015 team stats & Michigan comparison
Hawaii | Michigan Rank Defense Rank
Points Per Game 17.6 | 31.4 118 50
35.6 16.4 105 6
Rushing Yards 1,611 2,057 3,118 1,589
Rush Avg. Per Game 123.9 158.2 115 | 83
239.8 122.2 118 16
Avg. Per Rush 3.8 | 4.2
4.5 3.6
Passing Yards 2,501 | 3,090 2,716 2,060
Pass Avg. Per Game 192.4 237.7 98 53 208.9 158.5 42 3
Total Offense 4,112 5,147 5,834 3,649
Total Off Avg. Per Game 313.6 395.9 120 69 448.8 280.7 104 4
Kick Return Average 21.3 28.4 60 3 26.7 20.5 123 | 48
Punt Return Average 7.7 11.4 71 31 7.5 11.5 56 95
Avg. Time of Possession 23:30 | 33:28 127 | 9
36:30 | 26:32
3rd Down Conversion Pct 31.0% | 46.0% 120 17
44.0% | 28.0% 99 3
Sacks Allowed-Yards/By-Yards 31-217 | 18-95
82 | 27
25-145 | 32-250
75 | 35
Touchdowns Scored 29 | 50
59 | 24
Field Goals-Attempts 8-11 18-22
17-18 | 15-18
Red Zone Scores (24-31) 77%|(52-56) 93% 105 7
(54-62) 87%|(27-34) 79% 93 37
Red Zone Touchdowns (20-31) 65%|(37-56) 66% (41-62) 66%|(14-34) 41%
OFEI/DFEI -1.42| .56 123 19 -1.45 | .63 122 15
Off. S&P+/Def. S&P+ 17.9 34.7 119 32 34.0 13.6 99 | 2

While going 3-10 and 0-8 in the Mountain West Conference, Hawaii ranked near the bottom nationally in most categories, both offensively and defensively. On offense, Hawaii averaged two touchdowns fewer than Michigan, 34 fewer rushing yards, 45 fewer passing yards, and 10 fewer minutes of possession. Hawaii converted just 31 percent of third downs compared to Michigan’s 46 percent and they allowed 13 more sacks.

Defensively, Hawaii allowed nearly 20 more points, 118 more rushing yards, and 50 more passing yards per game than Michigan. They allowed opposing offenses to convert 44 percent of third downs, while Michigan’s defense only allowed 28 percent. They also allowed more than twice as many touchdowns (59 compared to Michigan’s 24) and allowed opponents to convert touchdowns on two-thirds of their red zone trips.

There is one area in which Hawaii fared better than Michigan last season, and that is punt return defense. Michigan gave up 11.5 yards per return, while Hawaii allowed 7.5. But that’s not a category that means a lot in the grand scheme of things, especially when there’s such a discrepancy in all of the other categories.

With nine returning starters on offense and a decent performance against Cal on Friday, there’s a good chance that Hawaii’s offense improves this season. But Michigan’s defense isn’t Cal’s. While Cal’s defense ranked 108th nationally in 2015, Michigan’s ranked fourth. If the Wolverines defense under new defensive coordinator Don Brown lives up to expectations, it will make for a long day for Hawaii.

2016 non-conference opponent preview: Hawaii

Tuesday, August 2nd, 2016


2016 Opponent Preview - Hawaii

Hawaii dance(Adam Cairns, Columbus Dispatch)

For most of the nation, college football season kicks off on Labor Day weekend. But for the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors, the month of kickoff has already dawned. Like Michigan last season, Hawaii kicks off the college football season, only instead of a 1,600 mile flight to Salt Lake City, Hawaii has a 5,100 mile flight to Sydney, Australia to face California on Aug. 26.

Schedule
Date Opponent
Aug. 26 Cal (in Australia)
Sept. 3 at Michigan
Sept. 10 Tennessee-Martin
Sept. 17 at Arizona
Oct. 1 Nevada
Oct. 8 at San Jose State
Oct. 15 UNLV
Oct. 22 at Air Force
Oct. 29 New Mexico
Nov. 5 at San Diego State
Nov. 12 Boise State
Nov. 19 at Fresno State
Nov. 26 Massachusetts

While Hawaii gets the advantage of a game under their belt before visiting Ann Arbor, the travel schedule may not be worth it. They follow up the trip to Sydney with a nearly 4,400-mile flight to Ann Arbor, making their two-week travel total of nearly 15,000 miles before Michigan even plays a game six times more than Michigan’s entire season-long travel total.

Hawaii went just 3-10 last season and 0-8 in the Mountain West Conference. They beat only Colorado (28-20), UC-Davis (47-27), and Louisiana-Monroe (28-26) and lost to UNLV — who Michigan beat 28-7 — by a score of 41-21. They also traveled to Michigan’s chief rival — Ohio State — and lost 38-0.

After going just 10-36 since 2012, head coach Norm Chow was fired after Week 10 and replaced with interim coach Chris Naeole. Following the season, former Hawaii quarterback Nick Rolovich was hired to try to turn the program around.

Rolovich was one of the most prolific quarterbacks in Rainbow Warrior history, where he broke 19 school passing records, and despite being drafted by the Denver Broncos, spent his pro career bouncing around NFL Europe and the Arena Football League until 2007. He got his first significant coaching position in 2008 as Hawaii’s quarterbacks coach and took on the role of offensive coordinator in 2010. From 2012-15 he served in the same position at Nevada, where his offenses plummeted from 8th to 45th to 68th to 86th. But he’ll try to turn around a Rainbow Warriors offense that ranked 120th out of 127 teams in the Football Bowl Subdivision.

Offense
2015 National Rankings
Total Offense Scoring Offense Rushing Offense Passing Offense
120 118 115 98
Offensive FEI S&P Rushing S&P Passing S&P
123 119 110 113
Projected Starters
Position Name, Yr. Ht, Wt 2015 Stats
QB Ikaika Woolsey (Sr.) 6’1″, 215 73-149 for 908 yds, 5 TD, 6 INT
RB Paul Harris (Sr.) 5’11”, 190 197 rush for 1,132 yds (5.7 avg), 6 TD
WR Marcus Kemp (Sr.) 6’4″, 200 36 rec for 563 yds (15.6 avg), 2 TD
WR Devan Stubblefield (RS So.) 6’0″, 190 30 rec for 351 yds (11.7 avg), 4 TD
WR Dylan Collie (RS So.) 5’10”, 175 29 rec for 342 yds (11.8 avg), 1 TD
TE Metuisela ‘Unga (Jr.) 6’5″, 240 11 rec for 170 yds (15.5 avg), 0 TD
LT Dejon Allen (RS Jr.) 6’3″, 290 13 starts (24 career starts)
LG Elijah Tupai (RS Jr.) 6’4″, 315 11 starts (14 career starts)
C John Wa’a (RS Jr.) 6’4″, 315 1 starts (3 career starts)
RG Asotui Eli (RS So.) 6’4″, 315 12 starts (12 career starts)
RT R.J. Hollis (RS Sr.) 6’4″, 295 13 starts (13 career starts)

The good news for Rolovich and co-offensive coordinators Brian Smith and Craig Stutzmann is that nine there is a lot of starting experience returning on offense this fall. The bad news is that they’ll have to improve quite significantly for much progress to be made. The Hawaii offense ranked 120th nationally last season in total offense (316.3 yards per game), 118th in scoring (17.6 points per game), 115th in rushing (123.9 yards per game), 98th in passing (192.4 yards per game), and 118th in team passing efficiency (97.08).

It starts with senior quarterback Ikaika Woolsey, who has 19 career starts under his belt but split time with USC transfer Max Wittek last season. While Wittek started the first eight games and completed just 47.2 percent of his passes for seven touchdowns and 15 interceptions, Woolsey took over for the last five and fared slightly better with a 49 percent completion percentage for five touchdowns and six picks. Woolsey has the experience which should earn him the job from the start, but he’ll have to fend off redshirt freshman Aaron Zwahlen, who was a three-star in the 2013 class.

The backfield returns its top five rushers, including Woolsey, most notably fifth-year senior Paul Harris, who became the first Hawaii back to eclipse 1,000 yards in a season since 2010. His 1,132 yards and 5.7 average was the highlight of Hawaii’s offense that still ranked 115th nationally on the ground. That’s because there wasn’t much behind him. Senior Melvin Davis tied Harris for the team lead with six touchdowns, but rushed for just 218 yards — 13 more than Ty Isaac. Fellow senior Steven Lakalaka was the only other back to top 100 yards with 187, but he never found the end zone.

If Woolsey or Zwahlen can prove to be efficient passers the Rainbow Warriors should be able to improve on their 98th-ranked passing offense with nine of their top 10 receivers returning. Senior Marcus Kemp and redshirt sophomores Devan Stubblefield and Dylan Collie weren’t quite the three-headed monster Michigan had with Jehu Chesson, Amara Darboh, and Jake Butt, but they caught a combined 95 passes for 1,256 yards and seven touchdowns. Seniors Isaiah Bernard and Makoa Camanse-Stevens also tallied more than 400 yards between them.

The offensive line has to replaced left tackle Ben Clarke, who started 50 career games, but returns four starters with a combined 66 career starts between them. Redshirt junior Dejon Allen will likely slide over to left tackle after starting 12 games at right guard and one at left guard a year ago. If Asotui Eli, who started 11 games at center last season, moves to right guard as expected, the big question mark will likely be at center where redshirt junior John Wa’a is the favorite to land. Wa’a has just three starts under his belt over the past two seasons.

Defense
2015 National Rankings
Total Defense Scoring Defense Rushing Defense Pass Efficiency D.
104 105 118 104
Defensive FEI S&P Rushing S&P Passing S&P
111 99 81 107
Projected Starters
Position Name, Yr. Ht, Wt 2014 Stats
DE Mekani Kema-Kaleiwahea (RS Sr.) 6’3″, 240 23 tackles, 2.5 TFL, 2.5 sacks
DT Kory Rasmussen (RS Sr.) 6’2″, 295 43 tackles, 4.5 TFL, 2 sacks, 1 FR
DT Samiuela Akoteu (RS Fr.) 6’2″, 320 Redshirted
DE David Manoa (RS Jr.) 6’3″, 240 16 tackles, 2.5 TFL, 2.5 sacks
LB Dany Mulanga (RS So.) 6’3″, 200 40 tackles, 0.5 TFL, 1 INT, 2 FF
LB Jahlani Tavai (RS So.) 6’4″, 235 56 tackles, 5 TFL,  3 sacks
LB Jerrol Garcia-Williams (RS Sr.) 6’2″, 230 89 tackles, 3.5 TFL, 1.5 sacks
CB Jamal Mayo (RS Sr.) 5’11”, 185 15 tackles, 2 PBU, 1 FR
CB Jalen Rogers (RS Sr.) 6’1″, 200 40 tackles, 2 TFL, 1 sack, 5 PBU
FS Daniel Lewis Jr. (Jr.) 5’11”, 180 47 tackles, 3 TFL, 1 sack, 3 PBU
SS Trayvon Henderson (RS Jr.) 6’0″, 200 3 tackles, 0.5 TFL

While the Hawaii offense was bad in 2015, the defense was not much better. It ranked 104th nationally in total defense (448.8 yards per game), 105th in scoring defense (35.6 points per game), 118th in rush defense (239.8 yards per game), 42nd in passing yards allowed (208.9 yards per game), and 104th in pass defense efficiency (143.42).

The only real connection between Michigan and Hawaii comes in the form of the new defensive coordinator Rolovich brought in. Kevin Lempa was the defensive backs coach at Boston College the past three seasons under new Michigan defensive coordinator Don Brown. He’ll know Brown’s philosophies and aim to bring some of them to Hawaii. Their Boston College defense led the nation in 2015 and the pass defense ranked sixth.

The best player on Hawaii’s defense last season, defensive end Kennedy Tulimasealli, was arrested twice over the offseason and subsequently dismissed from the team in June. Tulimasealli ranked second in the MWC with 18.5 tackles for loss. Nobody else returning had more than 4.5.

Fifth-year senior Mekani Kema-Kaleiwaher, redshirt junior David Manoa, and redshirt freshman Manly Williams will man the end rotation. The former two each had 2.5 sacks in 2015. Fifth-year senior Kory Rasmussen is the lone returning starter on the front line and his 4.5 tackles for loss are the second-most of any returning player. The other tackle spot figures to go to redshirt freshman Samiuela Akoteu.

Redshirt sophomore Jahlani Tavai moves from end to middle linebacker this season. His five tackles for loss and three sacks lead all returning players. Fifth-year senior outside linebacker Jerrol Garcia-Williams is the leading returning tackler with 89, while redshirt sophomore Dany Mulanga had a solid freshman season in 2015 with 40 tackles, an interception, and two forced fumbles.

The secondary is thin but does return some talent and be the relative strength of the defense. A pair of fifth-year seniors should hold down the corner spots. Jalen Rogers started seven games and ranked third on the team with five pass breakups, while Jamal Mayo played in all 13 games as a reserve and broke up two passes. Junior strong safety Daniel Lewis Jr. returns with 13 career starts. He recorded 47 tackles, three for loss, and three pass breakups a year ago. Free safety Trayvon Henderson returns from an injury that limited him to just two games last season. He ranked second on the team with 63 tackles in 2014 and also picked off a pair of passes.

Special Teams
2015 National Rankings
Kick Returns Punt Returns Net Punting ST Eff.
60 71 6 31
Kick Return D. Punt Return D. FG Efficiency Opp FG Eff.
111 99 35 120
Projected Starters
Position Name, Yr. Ht, Wt 2014 Stats
K Rigoberto Sanchez (Sr.) 6’1″, 190 8-of-11, Long 50
P Rigoberto Sanchez (Sr.) 6’1″, 190 74 punts, 45.1 avg, 2 TB, 28 in-20
KR Keelan Ewaliko (RS Jr.) 5’11”, 200 22 ret, 26.3 avg, 1 TD
PR John Ursua (RS Fr.) 5’10”, 165 Redshirted

If there’s one unit that was somewhat respectable in 2015 it was the special teams unit, which ranked 60th nationally in kick returns (21.32 yards per return), 71st in punt returns (7.73 yards per return), sixth in net punting (41.51 yards per punt), and 31st in special teams efficiency. Hawaii didn’t cover kicks very well (111th in kick return defense and 99th in punt return defense) but at least they were fairly good at something.

Senior Rigoberto Sanchez handled everything kick related, going 8-of-11 on field goals with a long of 50, 23-of-24 on PATs, punting 74 times for an average of 45.1 yards, and handling kickoff duties. Redshirt junior receiver Keelan Ewaliko is back to return kicks after averaging 26.3 yards per return last season, while redshirt freshman receiver John Ursua will get a chance to show what he can do on punt returns.

Outlook

The question is not whether Hawaii can become bowl eligible this season; it’s whether or not they can improve on last season’s three wins. The talent is likely there to do so, if ever so slightly, but the schedule is absolutely brutal. With trips to Sydney, Australia, Ann Arbor, and Tucson, Ariz. in three of the first four weeks and matchups with Air Force, San Diego State, Boise State, and Fresno State, there’s no chance at a winning record. SB Nation’s Bill Connelly gives Hawaii a greater than 50 percent chance to win three games — Tennessee-Martin (71%), UNLV (56%), and Massachusetts (66%). That sounds about right. If they can upset New Mexico or Nevada at home, Rolovich can at least carry improvement into 2017.

What it means for Michigan

Perhaps the biggest non-talent related factor in this game will be the time. A noon Eastern kickoff means the Hawaii players will be playing at 6 a.m. body time just a week after traveling half way around the world to play in Australia. It’s hard to imagine fatigue playing a factor at the beginning of the season, but in this case it’s hard to imagine it not. There’s no question that Michigan will win this one. The only question is by how much. Look for Jim Harbaugh to get the running game going, break in John O’Korn or Wilton Speight — likely both — and make an early season statement that the preseason hype is more than just hyperbole.