#2 Michigan v. Iowa
Sunday, Jan. 6 | 12pm ET | Big Ten Network
14-0 (1-0)	Record	11-3 (0-1)
Slippery Rock 100-62 IUPUI 91-54 Cleveland State 77-47 Pittsburgh 67-62 Kansas State 71-57 NC State 79-72 Bradley 74-66 W. Michigan 73-41 Arkansas 80-67 Binghamton 67-39 West Virginia 81-66 E. Michigan 93-54 C. Michigan 88-73 Northwestern 94-66	Wins	UTPA 86-55 C. Michigan 73-61 Howard 66-36 Gardner-Webb 65-56 W. Kentucky 63-55 Texas A&M-CC 88-59 South Dakota 87-63 Iowa State 80-71 Northern Iowa 80-73 S. Carolina State 90-46 Coppin State 80-50
	Losses	Wichita State 63-75 Virginia Tech 79-95 #5 Indiana 65-69
81.1	Points Per Game	76.1
59.0	Scoring Defense	61.7
423-for-818 (51.7%)	Field Goal %	360-for-814 (44.2%)
317-for-788 (40.2%)	Def. Field Goal %	310-for-838 (37.0%)
125-for-297 (42.1%)	3-point %	81-for-263 (30.8%)
90-for-289 (31.1%)	Def. 3-point %	78-for-280 (27.9%)
164-for-226 (72.6%)	Free Throw %	264-for-369 (71.5%)
11.7	FT Made/Game	18.9
37.6	Rebounds Per Game	41.4
28.6	Opp. Reb. Per Game	34.5
16.4	Assists Per Game	16.7
9.9	Turnovers Per Game	13.7
5.4	Steals Per Game	7.2
2.6	Blocks Per Game	5.2
G – Trey Burke (18.1) G – Tim Hardaway Jr. (16.2)	Leading Scorer	G – Devyn Marble (15.6) F – Aaron White (13.7)
F – Glenn Robinson (5.9) F – Mitch McGary (5.8)	Leading Rebounder	F – Aaron White (6.4) C – Adam Woodbury (5.4)

After dominating Northwestern in the Big Ten opener on Thursday night, Michigan returns home on Sunday afternoon to face the Iowa Hawkeyes in the Big Ten home opener at noon on the Big Ten Network.

Iowa comes in with an impressive-looking 11-3 record, although when you examine their schedule you’ll see an utter lack of quality opponents. The highest ranked team the Hawkeyes have beaten is Iowa State, which is No. 47 according to Pomeroy. Aside from the Cyclones, Iowa lost to Pomeroy No. 20 Wichita State and lost by just four to 5th-ranked Indiana. The latter was certainly impressive, as Iowa may have pulled it off had leading scorer Devyn Marble shot better than 1-of-14. Still, he scored 14 points thanks to a 12-of-13 performance from the free throw line, but if he had merely shot 21 percent from the field, it may have been good enough.

As a team, Iowa shoots just over 44 percent, but is a good rebounding team, averaging 41.4 per game. That’s good for 19th nationally. By comparison, Michigan averages about four rebounds fewer. On the other hand, Iowa gives up about six more rebounds than Michigan does. The Hawkeyes also average nearly 17 assists per game, which is 24th nationally, but they also turn the ball over nearly 14 times per game.

As mentioned above, Devyn Marble is the main man, averaging 15.6 points per game. He’s also third on the team with 4.5 rebounds a game. The 6-6 guard from Southfield, Mich. dropped 30 and 27 in consecutive games against Northern Iowa and South Carolina State. In those two games, he connected on 10-of-17 threes and 14-of-27 shots overall. But like his poor shooting outing against Indiana, when he’s off, he’s off. He also went 2-of-10 against Iowa State and scored just six points. Perhaps not so coincidentally, those two poor outings were against the best teams Iowa has played so far. Add in his 4-of-12 performance against Wichita State and he shot a combined 10-of-36 against the top three opponents.

Sophomore forward Aaron White is the only other Hawkeye averaging double figures at 13.7 points. He also leads the team in rebounding with a 6.4 average. Unlike Marble, he stepped up in big games, scoring 15 against IU and 18 against Iowa State. Despite being 6’8″, he has the ability to step out and hit the three every now and then, though he’s just 21.7 percent.

Freshman point guard Mike Gesell averages 9.6 points and 3.3 assists. He scored 23 against Northern Iowa, hitting 4-of-6 threes. But he had a 2-of-10 outing against Iowa State and 0-of-8 against Gardner-Webb, so he’s prone to poor shooting nights as well. He’ll have a tough time keeping up with Trey Burke.

Junior forward Melsahn Basabe averages 6.6 points and 4.1 rebounds per game. His season high is 17 points against Texas A&M-Corpus Christi and he only has one other double-digit scoring game on the season.

Freshman guard Anthony Clemmons leads the team with 3.9 assists per game and also has the ability to knock down the three, shooting 41.2 percent.

The center is 7’1″ freshman Adam Woodbury out of Sioux City, Iowa who averages 6.4 points and leads the team with 5.4 rebounds per game. His season high was 13 against Texas A&M-Corpus Christi. If there’s someone on the team you want to foul, it’s him as he shoots just 51.9 percent from the line.

Iowa is a team Michigan has had some struggles with in the past few years, but that has been on the road. With this game being in Ann Arbor, there should be no cause for concern. The only thing that may make this closer than expected is a letdown from the big 28-point win at Northwestern. Michigan is bound to have a poor shooting night one of these nights, but it shouldn’t matter in this one. The Wolverines have too much talent for the overmatched Hawkeyes and should win by around 15 points.

Michigan scored touchdowns on its first six drives and Devin Gardner had a career day as Michigan routed an Iowa team that had beaten it the past three seasons. Denard Robinson played his last game ever in the Big House, and boy was it a good one.

Michigan 42 – Iowa 17
	Final Stats
42	Final Score	17
8-3, 6-1	Record	4-7, 2-5
513	Total Yards	309
199	Net Rushing Yards	128
314	Net Passing Yards	181
23	First Downs	17
1	Turnovers	0
3-35	Penalties – Yards	3-21
1-43	Punts – Yards	4-165
30:23	Time of Possession	29:37
9-of-12	Third Down Conversions	6-of-14
2-of-2	Fourth Down Conversions	1-of-3
2-7	Sacks By – Yards	0-0
0-for-0	Field Goals	1-for-1
6-for-6	PATs	2-for-2
4-for-4	Red Zone Scores – Chances	3-for-4

With his elbow injury still inhibiting his ability to throw Denard took the field as a running back. Most assumed it was just to let the senior get on the field one last time, but Al Borges had other ideas. In a glimpse of what he might be in the NFL, Denard played a little running back, wide receiver and quarterback, though he did not attempt any passes. He even managed to break a couple of his trademark runs; one came on a reception which he turned back and ran the entire width of the field en route to a big gain. While it was great to see Denard be Denard again it wasn’t all fun and games as Fitz Toussaint had to be carted off the field with a broken leg. We wish him a speedy recovery and hope he can be back to 100 percent come next spring.

Much like Ohio State has been the Braxton Miller show all year, this game was the Devin Gardner show as he accounted for all six Wolverine scores: three in the air and three on the ground. And while the Iowa defense isn’t anything to be feared, Gardner did what any good quarterback should do against a poor defense: torch it. Devin went 18-of-23 for a career high 314 yards passing and added 37 more yards on the ground to go along with the aforementioned six touchdowns.

The game appeared as though it might be a battle at first as Iowa moved within four points with nine minutes to go in the second quarter. But Michigan had other ideas and rattled off 28 unanswered after that and closed out the Hawkeyes in convincing fashion.

After Michigan scored to go up 7-0, Iowa mounted a 75-yard drive on the legs of Mark Weisman and it looked like Iowa was going to run all over Michigan. The Wolverines answered, scoring on a 37-yard pass to Roundtree, who has quite the chemistry with Gardner. Iowa added a field goal on its next possession to cut the lead to 14-10, but that would be as close as they got. Gardner ran in a score, then hit Vincent Smith on a great screen play to put Michigan up 28-10 at the half. The only mistake – if you want to call it that – that Michigan made all day was a Gardner pick in the fourth quarter.

It is yet to be determined whether Denard will resume his duties as quarterback next week against the Buckeyes. If I had to guess I’d say that Hoke and Borges will keep Gardner as the starter and continue to use Denard as a receiver/running back. Denard is the heart and soul of this team but there is no denying they are a much better offensive team with Gardner at the helm. Not to take anything away from what Denard means but Gardner is the better passer, plain and simple. That said, Denard is too deadly of an athlete and leader to keep off the field. The freak nerve injury to his elbow may be just what Michigan needs to get past the surging Buckeyes who are still chock full of elite talent, while Michigan is still rebuilding from its failed RichRod experiment. At the very least, we’ve seen a glimpse of what this offense will look like next season with Gardner as the full time starter. I am in no way saying this should have been the set up all year, but now that we’ve seen it I have to say I like it a lot.

Michigan travels to Columbus to take on the undefeated Buckeyes in what is essentially OSU’s bowl game. Before the season I predicted a Michigan loss, but with Devin Gardner under center and Denard Robinson being utilized in other ways I may just change my mind. I will save my prediction for our weekly staff picks later this week.

The final home game of the season is upon us and Michigan will be looking to send its seniors off in style with a win over the Iowa Hawkeyes. At this point, the Hawkweys hold the longest winning streak of any opponent over Michigan – three games – and Brady Hoke would love to end that just as he did to the streaks Ohio State and Michigan State had accumulated.

For the third straight week, uncertainty surrounds the quarterback position as Denard Robinson has yet to be publicly cleared to play. Devin Gardner has filled in nicely the past two weeks and will likely be tasked to do the same tomorrow. Michigan remains in contention for the Big Ten Legends division title and a spot in the championship game, but must win out.

Iowa should provide a nice tune-up for the epic showdown that looms in Columbus a week from tomorrow. The Hawkeyes come in needing a win to stay alive for bowl contention. At 4-6, Iowa must win its last two to get a bowl bid. Iowa’s four wins were over Northern Illinois (18-17), Northern Iowa (27-16), Minnesota (31-13), and Michigan State (19-16 OT). The Hawkeyes lost to Iowa State (9-6), Central Michigan (32-31), Penn State (38-14), Northwestern (28-17), Indiana (24-21), and Purdue (27-24). The latter four of those losses have come consecutively in the last four weeks following the overtime victory over MSU. Can Iowa somehow rekindle the magic it found in East Lansing? Or will Michigan ensure the ‘Hawks will be home for the holidays? Let’s take a look at the matchups.

When Iowa has the ball

As I explained in Monday’s First Look, Iowa’s offense has been downright anemic this season under new offensive coordinator Greg Davis. The man who coordinated Texas’ offense for 13 seasons hasn’t been able to get things going, but he also doesn’t have Vince Young at his disposal.

James Vandenberg is a competent quarterback, but doesn’t have much to throw to due to the departure of Marvin McNutt. Vandenberg has completed 56.9 percent of his passes for 1,976 yards, five touchdowns, and six interceptions. He hasn’t thrown for 250 yards in a game all season and hasn’t thrown multiple touchdowns in a single game either. Penn State held him to just 47.2 percent completions for 189 yards, a touchdown, and two picks and his numbers against Iowa State, Michigan State, and Purdue were similar.

As mentioned above, he lacks top-notch receivers like he had with McNutt. The leaders are Kennan Davis and Kevonte Martin-Manley who have 46 catches for 560 yards and 47 catches for 545 yards, respectively. But only Martin-Manley has multiple touchdown grabs (two). Mammoth tight end C.J. Fiedorowicz 31 receptions for 278 yards and a touchdown. The main issue has been big plays. The entire offense has just 14 plays of 25 yards or more this season. McNutt had 15 by himself a year ago.

James Vandenberg led the Big Ten in passing last season, but has just five TDs in 2012

In the backfield, Angry Iowa Running Back Hating God has struck again. The leading rusher, Mark Weisman, had four straight 100-yard games, including a 217-yard performance against Central Michigan and 116 yards against Michigan State. But he left the Northwestern game with an ankle injury and has missed the last two games. He’s likely out this week as well. In his stead, sophomore Damon Bullock has been up and down. He rushed for 107 yards against Northwestern and 150 in the season opener, but has averaged just 2.6 yards per carry in the last two weeks. Purdue, who Michigan shredded for 304 yards rushing, held him to just 43 yards on 23 carries.

Davis’ offense is of the pro-style variety and calls for a zone running scheme and an underneath passing game. The offensive line has been through its share of injuries this season and has been a major factor in the lack of a run game. The lack of a true deep threat like McNutt has caused the underneath routes to be less effective. Expect Greg Mattison to unleash a blitz scheme designed to pressure Vandenberg into making quick decisions.

When Michigan has the ball

Like the offense, Iowa’s defense is guided by a new coordinator this season. Phil Parker has a solid group of linebackers but not much else. Despite the new coordinator it’s essentially the same defensive style as what Norm Parker ran, as Phil Parker was the team’s defensive backs coach for the previous 13 seasons.

While the Hawkeyes rank 29th nationally in points allowed, the total defense is a mediocre 51st. Each of the last four opponents have racked up over 400 yards of offense, and Penn State surpassed 500.

Junior linebacker Anthony Hitchens is the Big Ten’s leading tackler by a wide margin with 114, while James Morris ranks third and Christian Kirksey ranks 12th. Each of the three has more tackles than Michigan’s leading tackler, Desmond Morgan and they’re all solid linebackers.

The rest of the defense, not so much. Tackle Joe Gaglione has five sacks and nine tackles for loss, but no one else on the team has more than two sacks. The line has trouble getting pressure on the quarterback, ranking 111th nationally with just 11 sacks in 10 games.

The secondary has a pair of experienced corners in Micah Hyde and B.J. Lowery. Hyde is the team’s fourth leading tackler with 67, has a pair of fumble recoveries, and ranks fourth in the Big Ten with 12 pass breakups. The three-year starter doesn’t get beat often. Lowery, you might remember for knocking down Michigan’s final pass in the end zone last year, thwarting the comeback attempt.

The 4-3 defense employed by Parker isn’t overly aggressive and prefers to sit back and let the play come to it. The last four opponents have scored just an average of just over 29 points per game, and there’s no reason to think Michigan won’t do otherwise.

The other third

Kicker Mike Meyer has converted 16-of-19 field goals on the season with a long of 50. He made 14-of-20 last season and 14-of-17 in 2010 for a career average of 78.6. Punter Connor Kornbrath has an average of 37.4, which ranks 10th in the conference. Former Michigan quarterback commit John Wienke has also punted a dozen times with similar results.

The return game is below average, although Jordan Cotton leads the Big Ten with a 27.9-yard kick return average with one touchdown. Hyde handles punt return duties with an average of 5.4 yards per return. The Hawkeyes do defend returns pretty well, ranking 31st and 27th nationally in kick and punt return coverage, respectively.

Prediction

The biggest danger for Michigan in this one is overlooking the Hawkeyes for next week’s battle in Columbus. But a couple of factors exist that won’t allow that to happen. First of all, it’s Senior Day, so Denard, Jordan Kovacs, et al. will want to go off in style. Secondly, Michigan has the nation’s second longest home winning streak and hasn’t lost in the Big House since Hoke took over. Finally, Iowa has won the last three meetings and you can bet Hoke won’t let the team overlook that fact. Michigan will come to battle Iowa as if the Hawkeyes were the Buckeyes.

I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Denard didn’t play much. Michigan can win this one without him and needs him fully healthy for Ohio State, a possible Big Ten championship game, and the bowl game. There’s no use in letting him re-aggravate the elbow in this one. That being said, it is his final game in Michigan Stadium, so he may start and play a series or see a few plays here and there, but don’t expect him to play the full game.

With Gardner at quarterback, Michigan’s offense will look like it has the past two weeks. Fitz Toussaint and Thomas Rawls will split time in the backfield, although Vincent Smith will likely get some time as well since he’s a senior. Gardner will have another big day throwing and Michigan will cruise to a win, setting up the big one next Saturday.

Michigan 35 – Iowa 17

For this week’s edition of Friend vs. Foe, we are proud to welcome RossWB from the ever popular Iowa SB Nation blog Black Heart Gold Pants.  He will provide his perspective on how or why Iowa can beat Michigan on Saturday. Remember, this is not an actual game prediction. It is an attempt to describe how or why each team can win from each side of the matchup.

The case for Iowa
by RossWB

How can Iowa win this game? If Michigan contracts a serious case of food poisoning on Saturday morning, Iowa could win this game. If the Iowa bus gets lost and they wind up playing the game against a team of Ann Arbor middle schoolers, Iowa could win this game. If Kirk Ferentz is allowed to use a time machine, Iowa could win this game.

But as far as serious ways for Iowa to win this game…well, if you’ve seen the highlights – or even just read the box scores – from the last four weeks, then you probably know why it’s hard to have even a sliver of confidence in Iowa winning this game. They’ve lost four games in a row in Big Ten play, twice to decent opponents (Penn State and Northwestern) and twice to the Big Ten’s Indiana contingent. And the “decent” opponents absolutely massacred Iowa. The Indiana and Purdue games were close losses that, truth be told, were probably only close because of too many turnovers and penalties by those teams.

The Iowa offense hasn’t put up 20 points on their own since September, when they scored 24 of Iowa’s 31 points against Minnesota. (Iowa scored 21 and 24 points the last two weeks, but each game featured a defensive touchdown by Iowa.) The offense was bad to begin with, but it went from bad to farcical when it lost probably its two best players in back-to-back games (RB Mark Weisman against Michigan State, OT Brandon Scherff against Penn State). Now the offensive line can’t do much of anything, the receivers can’t get open, and the quarterback is a jittery mess still trying to adjust to life as a square peg in the round hole that is Greg Davis’ offense.

Only one of Iowa’s past four opponents has cracked 30 points (Penn State), but the other teams easily could have cracked 30 points if not for some untimely turnovers and red zone miscues. Each of Iowa’s last four opponents has amassed over 400 yards of offense and they’ve done it in a variety of ways; Penn State killed Iowa with balance, Northwestern ripped Iowa to bits on the ground, Indiana shredded them through the air, and Purdue did a little bit of everything. The defensive line can’t get pressure, the secondary struggles to cover, and two of the top three linebackers ended the previous game on the bench, for injuries or other reasons.

So how can Iowa win? They’ll probably need touchdowns from defense and special teams, for one. (And actual touchdowns, not just short fields – I have zero confidence in the Iowa offense being able to take advantage of a short field and score touchdowns themselves.) They’ll need Michigan’s offense to have an absolutely miserable day and turn the ball over several times. They’ll probably need the Michigan defense to forget how to tackle. And they’ll probably need to lock Greg Davis in a closet, give James Vandenberg a playbook from 2011, and hope for the best. Iowa has won three in a row over Michigan and they did pull an upset over Big Blue last year, but that was a better Iowa team, one that wasn’t bereft of talent, good ideas, and confidence. To win this year, Iowa probably needs a minor miracle.

The case for Michigan
by Justin

It’s hard to imagine Michigan losing this one unless Denard doesn’t play and Devin Gardner gets hurt too. Then it’s anyone’s guess. Iowa has surrendered over 400 yards to each of its past four opponents, one of which being a Purdue squad that was previously winless in conference play. Regardless of whether Denard or Devin is piloting the offense, Michigan should be able to move the ball.

But Iowa’s main problems are on the offensive side of the ball where the Hawkeyes are averaging just 19 points per game over the last five. The run game ranks second to last in the Big Ten and took a big hit when Mark Weisman went down two weeks ago. James Vandenberg is a decent quarterback, and the best way for Iowa to try to attack Michigan would be with the passing game. We all saw how Northwestern’s Trevor Siemian was able to shred the Michigan secondary the few series he was in last week. The main difference was that NW had a running game that Michigan was having trouble stopping as well. Despite the No.1 overall pass defense, Michigan’s secondary has been vulnerable to the deep ball all season; opposing quarterbacks just haven’t been accurate with it. If Iowa can hit a couple of them they could back Michigan’s defense off.

But make no mistake about it. If Michigan scores more than 20 points, it will win. And there’s absolutely no reason to think the Wolverines will be held below 20. I have a hard time believing Denard will play much if at all this weekend, so the offense will be the same as it has been the past two weeks: pro-style, power running with a better passing game. Devin Gardner’s command of the offense will continue to improve and he’ll be able to exploit the Hawkeye defense just as the past four opponents have.

The main thing Michigan has to worry about in this one is not looking ahead to undefeated Ohio State next week. That’s where the last three years come into play. Iowa’s three-game winning streak over Michigan allows Brady Hoke to keep the team focused on ending the streak, just like it did against OSU last year and Michigan State a few weeks ago. On Senior Day, you can bet the 18 seniors won’t want their careers to expire having never beaten the Hawkeyes.  In addition to that, Michigan is still in the hunt for the Legends division title, so expect another big day by Garnder leading Michigan to a win setting up a huge showdown in Columbus next Saturday.

Read our preseason preview here.

Michigan escaped Northwestern on Saturday, keeping its slim Big Ten title hopes alive. Unfortunately, Nebraska did the same with a 32-23 win over Penn State. Two games remain for both team, one of which is a common opponent – Iowa. The Hawkeyes are ready for the season – and perhaps Kirk Ferentz’s job – to end after four straight losses, the most recent of which at the hands of the hapless Purdue Boilermakers.

Iowa sits at 4-6 overall, 2-4 in the Big Ten. The only wins are a one-point win over Northern Illinois, Northern Iowa, Minnesota, and a double-overtime victory at Michigan State. Since then, Iowa has lost to Penn State, Northwestern, Indiana, and Purdue and also lost to Iowa State and Central Michigan. If you can’t tell, Iowa is not a good football team by any stretch of the imagination. However, the Hawkeyes will be fighting for the postseason this week, needing to beat both Michigan and Nebraska to earn a bowl bid. Let’s take a look at Iowa.

What stands out most is how bad Iowa’s offense is. The Hawkeyes rank 102nd out of 120 teams in points per game and 106th in total offense. Ferentz’s squad has scored more than 30 points just twice all season – one in a loss to Central Michigan and the other a win over Minnesota. In five games, Iowa has scored 19 points or fewer. In fact, over the last five games, Iowa is averaging just 19 points.

Anthony Hitchens has emerged as a probable All-Big Ten linebacker

Quarterback James Vandenberg is completing just under 57 percent of his passes for 1,976 yards, which is fourth in the Big Ten. But is pass efficiency isn’t even in the top 10 in the conference. His worst game of the season came against Penn State, when he completed just 47 percent for 189 yards, a touchdown and two interceptions.

The run game is worse, ranking second-to-last in the Big Ten, ahead of only Illinois. Running back Mark Weisman had four good games in a row in the middle of the season, including a 217-yard performance against CMU, but he has missed the past two games with an ankle injury. Damon Bullock started the season with a 150-yard performance against NIU, but suffered a concussion in Week 3 that kept him out for four games, which is when Weisman emerged. Bullock returned three weeks ago to rush for 107 yards against Northwestern. But against Purdue on Saturday, he was held to just 1.9 yards per carry.

Defensively, Iowa is about average, ranking 29th in points per game, and 51st in total defense. Purdue was able to rack up 490 total yards on Saturday, 279 through the air and 211 on the ground, and still won despite committing 10 penalties. In fact, each of the past four opponents have lit up the Hawkeye defense. Northwestern piled up 433 yards, Indiana 473, and Penn State 504.

Junior linebacker Anthony Hitchens leads the Big Ten with 114 tackles, which is 16 more than the next closest. Fellow linebacker James Morris ranks third with 96, while a third linebacker, Christian Kirksey, is 12th with 76. All three of them have more tackles than Michigan’s leader, Desmond Morgan (67).

Tackle Joe Gaglione leads the team with five sacks and nine tackles-for-loss, while no other player has more than two sacks. Iowa as a team has the fewest sacks in the Big Ten and is also allowing opponents to convert a conference worst 42.3 percent of third downs.

During the offseason, Ferentz replaced his coordinators in an attempt to save his own job, but the Hawkeyes are headed toward their worst record since 2000. Meanwhile, Michigan has lost three straight to Iowa and is still fighting to win the Legends division.

Continuing our 2012 preseason opponent preview series, the fifth easiest (or eighth toughest) game of the upcoming season is the second to last opponent of the season, the Iowa Hawkeyes. In the past few weeks, we have previewed, in order of easiest to not-so-easiest, UMass, Minnesota, Illinois, and Northwestern.

Overview

It’s not often that a head coach replaces both coordinators in one offseason, but when you’re the elder statesman of the Big Ten and you’ve had two straight lackluster seasons, sometimes change is due. Kirk Ferentz, now in his 14th season at Iowa, let go of longtime offensive coordinator Ken O’Keefe and defensive coordinator Norm Parker. He replaced Parker with defensive backs coach Phil Parker (no relation), but he went outside the program for new offensive coordinator Greg Davis.

Davis was the man who guided Texas to a national championship in 2006 and called plays for Vince Young and Colt McCoy. From 2003 to 2009, his offenses finished no worse than 14th nationally in scoring and scored at least 35.2 points per game each season. How much of that was Davis and how much of that was Young and McCoy is debatable. Without the two, his offense scored just 23.8 points per game and the Longhorns limped to a 5-7 record in 2010.

Offense

James Vandenberg will be one of the better QBs in the Big Ten, but needs a running game to step up

Davis inherits an offense that was middle of the pack in the Big Ten last season, but he does have a talented signal caller to work with. Senior James Vandenberg returns for his second year as a starter after throwing for over 3,000 yards and 25 touchdowns last season. His yards per game average was third in the conference behind Dan Persa and Kirk Cousins and his touchdowns were second only to Russell Wilson’s 33.

He’ll have to find a new top receiver to throw to as Marvin McNutt is off to the NFL. Senior Keenan Davis caught 50 passes last season and is the logical choice, but he struggled in spring ball, leaving the door open for others. Sophomore Kevonte Martin-Manley impressed last season, catching 30 passes and three touchdowns as a freshman, and could step into a leading role. Another guy to watch for is tight end C.J. Fiedorowicz. He’s 6’7” and 265 pounds with good hands and is tough to bring down. He caught just 16 passes last season, but most came in the last few games in which he caught touchdown passes in three of the final four games.

It seems to be a yearly refrain, but the position that has been the most ravaged for the Hawkeyes is running back. Last season’s leading rusher, and the Big Ten’s second-leading rusher, Marcus Coker, transferred to Stony Brook amid legal troubles. To make matters worse, his likely replacement, Jordan Canzeri, tore his ACL in March and Mika’il McCall transferred as well. Sophomore De’Andre Johnson is next in line, but he struggled holding onto the ball in the spring. Fellow sophomore Damon Bullock showed good speed in the spring and will factor in, while a pair of freshman, Greg Garmon and Barkley Hill, will get a chance to show what they can do in the fall.

The offensive line is a typical Iowa line despite having to replace three starters. Iowa churns out big uglies as well as any school in the Big Ten and has plenty of talent waiting in the wings. Redshirt freshman Austin Blythe looked good in the spring and will try to work his way into the lineup in fall camp. The Hawkeyes have eight or nine battling it out for the starting five, which won’t be decided until the start of the season.

Defense

While the offense will likely take some time to adjust to the new schemes, defense will be the Hawks’ calling card. Yes, a new defensive coordinator is in place, but he came from within, so don’t expect a drop off in production.

Let’s start with the question mark: the defensive line. It’s a young group aside from end Joe Gaglione, who had a strong spring, and tackle Steve Bigach. Parker will need some young guys such as Darian Cooper, Riley McMinn, and Carl Davis to step up, though Davis missed spring practice with a knee injury. Defensive end Dominic Alvis is likely to earn a starting spot if he can return healthy from a torn ACL.

The back seven will be solid. James Morris, Christian Kirksey, and Anthony Hitchens all return at the linebacker spots, though if any of them go down, there’s not much depth. Micah Hyde is a solid playmaker at corner, but the Hawkeyes are still looking for his counterpart. B.J. Lowery looks to be that guy, but Greg Castillo, who has started a few games, is right there as well. At safety, Nico Law and Tanner Miller are the starters. Law is a big hitter who impressed in the spring game. Parker promises to blitz more and play more press coverage than Iowa has in recent year, so look for the back seven to carry the Hawkeyes defense, but the performance of the line will tell the tale of the season.

Special Teams

Kicker Mike Meyer is back after hitting 14 of 20 last season, while Iowa needs to find a new punter. Former quarterback John Wienke looks to be the guy, however, Jonny Mullings may end up the starter when all is said and done. Hyde retakes the punt return duties after averaging 8.2 yards per return last season and Davis will again handle kick return duties.

Outlook

With so many questions at the sills positions offensively, Iowa will need its defense to be dominant. Vandenberg will be one of the top quarterbacks in the conference, but how quickly he grasps the new offense, and how well the running backs step up, will be the stories to watch early in the season. Fortunately, the non-conference schedule looks like four wins and the Hawks skip Wisconsin and Ohio State. If Ferentz doesn’t win at least eight or nine games it will be another disappointing season in Iowa City.

What it means for Michigan

Lost amid the focus of Michigan’s losing streak to Michigan State and the exuberance of ending the losing streak to Ohio State is a three-game losing streak to Iowa. The only reason it isn’t four is because the two didn’t play in 2008. This year, the game falls very late in the season, right after Minnesota and Northwestern and right before the big showdown in Columbus. Will Michigan be looking ahead? Don’t count on it. This should be the year the losing streak ends

After dropping its first game of the season last Saturday, the schedule doesn’t get any easier for Michigan as the Iowa Hawkeyes come to Ann Arbor with the nation’s top-ranked defense.

There’s a perception around the nation right now that Michigan State shut down Denard Robinson and the Michigan offense. Point-wise, Michigan scored 24 less than its average from the first five games, but as I wrote on Sunday, and The Woverine’s Jonathan Chait wrote on Tuesday, Michigan left a lot of points on the field with its turnovers in the end zone.

Michigan vs. #15 Iowa
	Sat. Oct. 16 3:30 p.m. ET ABC/ESPN
5-1	Record	4-1
UConn 30-10 Notre Dame 28-24 UMass 42-37 Bowling Green 65-21 Indiana 42-35	Wins	E. Illinois 37-7 Iowa State 35-7 Ball State 45-0 #22 Penn State 22-3
#17 Mich. State 17-34	Losses	#24 Arizona 27-34
37.3	Scoring Offense	33.6
297.3	Rushing YPG	172.2
236.3	Passing YPG	254.2
533.7	Total Offense	426.4
26.8	Scoring Defense	10.2
146.3	Rush Defense YPG	63.2
304.3	Pass Defense YPG	179.0
450.7	Total Defense YPG	242.2
9	Takeaways	9
8	Giveaways	5
9/2	Sacks By/Allowed	10/10
35/72 (49%)	Third-down Conv.	28/60 (47%)
2/7	Field Goals	2/3
36.0	Net Punt Avg.	35.6

Robinson played his worst game of the season, but the offense still moved the ball with ease the entire first half. The turnovers, which weren’t forced, they were just bad throws to open receivers, allowed State to pull away, which caused Michigan to abandon its run game.

I’m certainly not trying to discredit Michigan State, who is the better all-around team of the two right now, but instead show that without a few mistakes by a sophomore quarterback makings his first start against a ranked rival, Michigan was right there. That bodes well for the rest of the season because Robinson isn’t going to make those mistakes every week.

The debate is whether Michigan State showed the blueprint for stopping Michigan’s offense or slowing down Denard. The Spartans seemed intent on forcing Robinson to throw and let the other ball carriers beat them. The latter worked when Michigan was still in the game and executing its offense, but the former is what let the game get away.

Iowa will likely use the same defensive game plan. The Hawkeyes have given up just 10.2 points per game, despite allowing 34 in a loss to then-No. 24 Arizona. If you take away kickoff return touchdowns and touchdowns scored by opposing defenses, of which Arizona had two, Iowa’s defense has allowed just 37 points through five games. That’s a touchdown per game.

Last year, in Iowa City, Robinson was effective in leading a fourth quarter comeback as Michigan narrowly fell, 30-28. That Iowa defense was just as highly regarded. No opponent had scored more than 21 points against the Hawkeyes in the five games prior to the match-up and, and Michigan scored 28. Iowa finished the season 11-2 and didn’t allow that many points again, including No. 9 Georgia Tech, which only managed 14 in the Orange Bowl.

Michigan should be able to move the ball and score some points this week. The key is punching it into the end zone and not turning the ball over. Just like last week, I think that will be the determining factor in the game.

Iowa’s offense is a little above average. The running game ranks 45th in the nation with 172.2 yards per game and the passing game ranks 32nd with 254.2 per game, slightly better than Michigan’s. The combined record of the teams Iowa has beaten is 8-16, while the team it lost to, Arizona, is 4-1, after losing to 2-2 Oregon State last week.

Quarterback Ricky Stanzi is more or less your classic Big Ten quarterback. He’s accurate (67.8 completion percentage), efficient (10.13 yards per attempt), and doesn’t make many mistakes (10 touchdowns versus two interceptions).  He’s a third-year starter who has played in plenty of big games and has won two straight bowl games.

QB Ricky Stanzi passed for 284 yards and two touchdowns in last year's win over Michigan (AP Photo/Al Goldis)

Stanzi’s top receiver is Derrell Johnson-Koulianos, a senior who’s on pace for his best season of his career. He has caught 21 passes for 334 yards and four touchdowns. He had three catches for 63 yards in last year’s meeting, one of which covered 47 yards.

Thankfully, the man who burned Michigan last year, tight end Tony Moeaki, is now playing on Sundays. He caught six passes for 105 yards and two touchdowns a year ago, both of which were backbreaking. The first came on third-and-12 from the 34 in the first quarter to tie the game at seven. The second, a 42-yard play, came with 13 minutes remaining and Michigan within two.

This year, Iowa doesn’t yet have a proven tight end. Senior Allen Reisner has caught 17 passes for 214 yards and a touchdown so far this season.

The running game, which didn’t do much against Michigan last year, hasn’t broken out yet this season either. Sophomore Adam Robinson is clearly the man since Jewel Hampton tore his ACL (again) against Arizona. Robinson has carried the ball 98 times for 480 yards and six touchdowns. He had big games against Eastern Illinois and Iowa State before recording just five yards on 10 carries against Arizona and being held to a very pedestrian 3.4 yards per carry on 28 attempts last week against Penn State.

The next most used healthy back on the team has just 10 carries this season, so expect Robinson to get the bulk of the load.

Much of the lack of success on the ground can probably be attributed to the offensive line, which had the least experience of any unit in the Big Ten entering the season. It has allowed 10 sacks so far, an average of two per game, which could bode well for Michigan’s defensive front. Look for defensive coordinator Greg Robinson to employ a similar blitz-happy feast or famine game plan the he used last week.

Three Keys to a Michigan Win

1. Don’t turn the ball over. This was a strength through the first five games, but proved to be the dagger last week. It wasn’t simply the turnovers, but the situation in which the turnovers occurred that killed Michigan. The first two interceptions were in the end zone after good Michigan drives. The receivers were open both times, but Robinson threw late or behind the receiver.

After the game, Robinson addressed his teammates in the locker room, taking responsibility for the performance and vowing to work hard and not let it happen again. His leadership should show on Saturday with an inspiring performance.

2. Jump out ahead. Michigan is at its best when playing with the lead. The offense is powered by its run game, which is hard to do when playing from behind. The best thing that could happen in this game is to score on each of the first two or three possessions. It will get rid of the bad taste of last week’s inability to convert, and set the tone for the game.

Running back Michael Shaw should be 100 percent healthy this week, which will help the running game significantly. He looked good against Michigan State in the limited carries he got, being not fully healthy. He’s the most complete back Michigan has, so getting him back will be a big boost to the offense.

3. Don’t give up the big play defensively. Big plays have hurt Michigan all season. Through the first five games of this season, the offense was able to score enough that it didn’t hurt. But Michigan State took advantage just like Iowa did last year with the two big plays to Moeaki.

Prediction:

I’m pretty conflicted on this prediction because I just don’t see Denard making the same mistakes he made last week, and I don’t think Iowa’s offense is as good as Michigan State’s. Yet, I don’t think Michigan will win this game. I think it will be very similar to last year’s game: close and Michigan will have a shot to win at the end. If Denard pulls it out, the Heisman train will be back on track. If not, Michigan will be 5-2. If it’s any consolation, I predicted a loss against Notre Dame, and Michigan won, so here’s to hoping that repeats itself.

Iowa 35 – Michigan 31

From their View…

The Daily Iowan has Hawkeye players saying all the right things about Denard, The Hawkeye Insider give its prediction and says Iowa has had problems tackling on defense (as if a defense allowing 10 points a game knows what it’s like to play defense for Michigan right now), and Black Heart, Gold Pants gives ten reasons why Michigan will win.