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Posts Tagged ‘Jabrill Peppers’

Michigan sets program record with 11 NFL Draft picks

Monday, May 1st, 2017


Following Jim Harbaugh’s second season in Ann Arbor, Michigan has set a new program record with 11 players drafted in the 2017 NFL Draft, topping the previous record of 10 which happened in 1972 and 1974. The 11 Wolverines  selected were the most of any school in this year’s draft, one more than Alabama, who also set a program record.

Michigan matched its record of five players selected in the first 100 picks and six players selected in the first three rounds, which was also achieved in 1972, following Bo Schembechler’s third season. In two seasons, Harbaugh has seen 14 players drafted, and although none were his recruits, he and his coaching staff played a major role in developing them into NFL caliber players. To put it in perspective, from 2010 to 2015 (six NFL drafts) the Wolverines had just 16 players drafted, only two in the first round and seven in the first three rounds.

In addition to the 11 players drafted, seven others have signed undrafted free agent contracts, which means the Wolverines will have at least 18 rookies in training camps this season.

Here’s a breakdown Michigan’s record-breaking draft.

Round 1 – Pick 25 | Jabrill Peppers | Cleveland Browns

Peppers became Michigan’s first first-round draft pick since Taylor Lewan was selected 11th overall by the Tennessee Titans in the 2014 draft. He was also the first Michigan player drafted by the Cleveland Browns since Braylon Edwards was taken third overall in the 2005 draft.

Peppers celebrated by party hopping, not dancing.


Peppers was introduced at the Browns’ facility along with No. 1 overall pick Myles Garrett and and tight end David Njoku, who was drafted 29th:


The three also threw out the first pitch at the Cleveland Indians game on Friday:

Links: 

• Doug Lesmerises urges Ohio State fans who also root for the Browns to root for Peppers.

• Browns coaches plan to use Peppers on offense as well as defense.

• CBS Sports’ Pete Prisco gave the Browns an F for drafting Peppers.

Current Browns players react to the addition of Peppers.

Round 1 – Pick 28 | Taco Charlton | Dallas Cowboys

Just three picks after Peppers, Taco Charlton heard his name called by the Dallas Cowboys, giving Michigan two first-round draft picks for the first time since Braylon Edwards and Marlin Jackson were taken in the first round of the 2005 NFL Draft.

Links: 

• The Cowboys believe Charlton’s best football is ahead of him.

• Charlton is hearing from endorsers regarding his name.

• The Cowboys’ site goes behind the scenes with Taco.

Round 3 – Pick 74 | Chris Wormley | Baltimore Ravens

Michigan got shut out of the second round, but Jim Harbaugh’s brother John came to the rescue, drafting Christ Wormley to the Baltimore Ravens. Wormley will join former teammate Willie Henry, who was drafted by the Ravens in the fourth round of last year’s draft.

Defensive line coach Greg Mattison tweeted his congratulations all the way from Rome:

Links: 

• Wormley is excited to go from Harbaugh to Harbaugh.

• Wormley developed a good relationship with Ravens defensive line coach Joe Cullen, giving him a hunch that they’d draft him.

• Baltimore Sun columnists analyze the pick.

• RavensWire is very positive about Wormley’s ability to make an impact.

Round 3 – Pick 92 | Jourdan Lewis | Dallas Cowboys

The Dallas Cowboys picked up their second Michigan defender in three rounds, reuniting Taco Charlton with Jourdan Lewis.


Greg Mattison gave the Cowboys the game plan:

Links: 

• Despite a pending domestic violence trial, the Cowboys are confident in Lewis’ character.

• Tim Cowlishaw details the Cowboys’ propensity to put its money on the offense, leaving a lot of pressure on Lewis to perform as a rookie.

• CBS Sports grades the Lewis pick as a B+

Round 3 – Pick 95 | Delano Hill | Seattle Seahawks

Safety Delano Hill went surprisingly early, as the Seattle Seahawks drafted him with their third round pick, 95th overall.

Links: 

• Hill is happy to join the Seahawks‘ secondary.

• Bob Condotta of the Seattle Times lists Hill as the Seahawks’ most important pick for the future.

• Seattle PI says Hill will be groomed to replace Kam Chancellor.

Round 3 – Pick 106 | Amara Darboh | Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks didn’t waste any time reuniting Hill with his former teammate Amara Darboh, selecting the Michigan receiver 106th overall, just 11 picks after Hill.


Former Wolverine Frank Clark shared his excitement over the Seahawks drafting a pair of his former teammates:

Links: 

• Mark Snyder details how the Seahawks were “laying in the weeds” to draft Darboh.

• Josh Henschke breaks down how Michigan’s pro-style system prepared Darboh for the NFL.

• The News Tribune has a nice write up on Darboh’s journey from an orphan in Sierra Leone to the NFL.

Round 3 – Pick 120 | Ben Gedeon | Minnesota Vikings

Just 14 picks after Darboh, linebacker Ben Gedeon heard his name called by the Minnesota Vikings as the 13th pick of the fourth round. He was the Vikings’ second selection of the round, following Iowa defensive tackle Jaleel Johnson.

Links: 

• Gedeon has a great Twitter cover photo.

• Vikings fans weren’t particularly enamored with the pick, grading it a C.

• Vikings Territory sees Gedeon’s immediate impact on special teams.

Round 4 – Pick 138 | Ryan Glasgow | Cincinnati Bengals

While Gedeon was drafted higher than many thought, the next Wolverine selected, Ryan Glasgow, was a great pick near the end of the fourth round by the Cincinnati Bengals.

Links: 

• Land of 10 has a nice breakdown of Glasgow’s path from walk-on to the NFL.

• Cincy Jungle details where Glasgow fits in and why the pick made sense.

Round 4 – Pick 139 | Jehu Chesson | Kansas City Chiefs

The Kansas City Chiefs gave Michigan back-to-back draft picks when they selected Jehu Chesson with the 139th overall pick.

Links: 

• CBS Sports graded the pick a D-, calling it a reach.

• Chiefs.com lists five things to know about Chesson.

• Arrowhead Pride likes Chesson’s polish and compared him to former Michigan and NFL receiver Jason Avant.

Round 5 – Pick 145 | Jake Butt | Denver Broncos

The biggest disappointment of Michigan’s draft was Jake Butt falling to the fifth round. Had he not suffered his second ACL tear in the Orange Bowl, Butt surely would have been a second or third round pick at worst, but his uncertainty for this fall caused teams to pass on him. The Denver Broncos came to the rescue, drafting Butt with the first pick of the fifth round, 145th overall.


John Elway offered some praise of Butt:

Links: 

• Yahoo’s Frank Schwab analyzes the payout from Butt’s insurance policy.

• Predominantly Orange likes Butt’s potential fit as a red zone target.

• Broncos Wire thinks Butt could start this fall.

Round 6 – Pick 197 | Jeremy Clark | New York Jets

The last and final Wolverine drafted on Saturday was cornerback Jeremy Clark. Like Butt, Clark suffered a major injury in 2016, though he missed more than half the season, so his pick was somewhat of a surprise. The New York Jets drafted Clark 197th overall.

Links: 

• Jets Wire loves Clark’s size and sees potential for significant playing time this fall.

Michigan’s Undrafted Free Agents

Erik Magnuson – San Francisco 49ers

Kyle Kalis – Washington Redskins

Matt Godin – Houston Texans

Dymonte Thomas – Denver Broncos

Channing Stribling – Cleveland Browns

Kenny Allen – Baltimore Ravens

De’Veon Smith – Miami Dolphins

Jabrill Peppers drafted 25th overall by Cleveland Browns

Thursday, April 27th, 2017


Entering Thursday night’s NFL Draft, many wondered if Michigan’s do-everything star Jabrill Peppers would fall out of the first round after submitting a diluted sample at the NFL Combine. The Cleveland Browns ended that speculation by drafting the East Orange, N.J. native 25th overall.

Peppers was the Big Ten Nagurski-Woodson Defensive Player of the Year last season, the Butkus-Fitzgerald Linebacker of the Year, the Rodgers-Dwight Return Specialist of the Year, a unanimous All-American, and finished fifth in the Heisman Trophy running. He also won the Paul Hornung award as the nation’s most versatile player and the Lott Trophy as college football’s defensive impact player, which recognizes character in addition to talent.

Peppers played all over the field for the Wolverines, impacting the game in all three phases. In 2016, he recorded 72 tackles, 16 tackles for loss, four sacks, a forced fumble, and an interception while playing linebacker. On offense, he rushed for 167 yards and three touchdowns, and in the return game he averaged 26 yards per kick return and 14.8 yards per punt return, taking one all the way for a touchdown.

The Browns made a big splash on the draft’s first day, taking Texas A&M defensive end Myles Garrett with the first overall pick, snatching Peppers, then trading back into the first round to select Miami tight end David Njoku 29th.

Peppers is a nice piece for defensive coordinator Gregg Williams’ blitz-happy defense. Williams is known for his exotic schemes, and having a player like Peppers who can move all over the field can help with that. Browns head coach Hue Jackson has also said that he’ll give Peppers a chance to play some offense.

Peppers is Michigan’s first first-round pick since Taylor Lewan was selected 11th overall by the Tennessee Titans in 2014. He’s the first Michigan player drafted by the Browns since receiver Braylon Edwards was drafted third overall in 2005.

#11 Florida State 33 – #6 Michigan 32: Michigan resilient in comeback, but lets Orange Bowl slip away in final minute

Sunday, January 1st, 2017


(Mgoblue.com)

Michigan, playing without Jabrill Peppers, who missed the game with a hamstring injury, dug itself a big first half hole, fought back to grab a late lead, but ultimately fell by one point to 11th-ranked Florida State in the Capital One Orange Bowl in Miami on Friday night.

Florida State took the opening kickoff and marched right through the vaunted Michigan defense for a 6-play, 75-yard scoring drive to make an early statement. The Wolverines got a break after they were forced to punt on their first possession of the game when FSU’s Noonie Murray fumbled Kenny Allen’s punt and Dymonte Thomas recovered at the Florida State 1-yard line. But the Seminoles’ defense held strong, forcing a 19-yard Allen field goal.

Florida State responded with a field goal of their own on their next drive and then forced two straight Michigan three-and-outs. On the first play of FSU’s next drive, Michigan’s coverage broke down and quarterback Deondre Francois hit Murray for a 92-yard touchdown to put the Seminoles up 17-3.

Final Stats
Michigan  Florida State
Score 32 33
Record 10-3, 7-2 10-3, 5-3
Total Yards 252 371
Net Rushing Yards 89 149
Net Passing Yards 163 222
First Downs 16 15
Turnovers 1 2
Penalties-Yards 4-37 7-65
Punts-Yards 8-379 6-207
Time of Possession 34:17 25:43
Third Down Conversions 7-of-20 3-of-13
Fourth Down Conversions 1-of-2 1-of-1
Sacks By-Yards 2-22 4-26
Field Goals 3-for-3 2-for-2
PATs 1-for-1 3-for-4
Red Zone Scores-Chances 4-of-4 3-of-3
Red Zone Scores-TDs 1-of-4 3-of-3
Full Box Score

By the end of the first quarter, Florida State was outgaining Michigan 201 to 22, despite Michigan having more time of possession.

The Michigan defense forced a three-and-out to start the second quarter and put together a 11-play, 59-yard scoring drive. However, after reaching 1st-and-goal at the FSU six, the Wolverines had to settle for a 28-yard Allen field goal to pull within 17-6.

Florida State answered with a 15-play drive to get that field goal back as Robert Aguayo connected from 38 yards out. Florida State took a 20-6 lead into the half.

In the first half, both teams had 34 plays from scrimmage, but Michigan managed just 83 total yards (2.4 yards per play) compared to FSU’s 255 (7.5).

But the second half was a different story. Michigan set the tone on the first possession of the half, marching 14 plays for yet another Allen field goal, this time from 37 yards out.

The two teams traded a pair of punts and Michigan linebacker Mike McCray made the big play the Wolverines needed, picking off Francois at the Florida State 14 and returning it for a touchdown. Wilton Speight’s pass for the two-point conversion fell incomplete.

Michigan’s defense held Florida State to just 15 yards on nine plays in the third quarter while pulling within five points. But FSU wouldn’t roll over, beginning the fourth quarter with a 7-play, 75-yard touchdown drive to take a 27-15 lead.

Two possessions later, Michigan’s offense found the end zone for the first tim in the game when Speight connected with Khalid Hill for an 8-yard touchdown.

Florida State took over with 5:22 remaining and the Michigan defense stood strong, forcing a three-and-out, and giving the offense the ball with a chance to take the lead. And they did just that. The Wolverines went 61 yards in just five plays, capped off by a 30-yard Chris Evans touchdown run to give Michigan the lead with two minutes to play. Speight hit Amara Darboh in the end zone for the two-point conversion, putting Michigan ahead 30-27.

But instead of forcing Florida State’s offense — which had managed just 82 yards in the second half to that point — drive the length of the field for a game-tying field goal, Michigan’s special teams allowed a 66-yard return up the middle to the Michigan 34-yard line. Four plays later, Francois completed a pass to Murray over Jourdan Lewis in the end zone to give Florida State a 33-30 lead. Michigan blocked the extra point try and Josh Metellus returned it for two points to bring the Wolverines within two, but the Michigan offense was unable to move into field goal range as Speight was intercepted to end Michigan’s chances.

Speight finished the game 21-of-38 for 163 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. Evans lead Michigan with 49 rushing yards and the one touchdown, while Darboh lead the way with five receptions for 36 receiving yards. Ian Bunting caught three passes for 40 yards filling in for Jake Butt, who tore his ACL in the first half.

For Florida State, Dalvin Cook rushed for 145 yards and one score, while Francois completed 9-of-27 passes for 222 yards, two touchdowns, and one pick.

Michigan finishes the season at 10-3, matching last season’s record, while Florida State also finished 10-3. The Wolverines may fall out of the top 10 in the final rankings, but will look to bounce back next season when they open with Florida in AT&T Stadium on Sept. 2.

Game Ball – Offense

Kenny Allen (3-of-3 field goals, 8 punts for 47.4 average, 4 downed inside 20)
For the second straight game and third in the last four, Kenny Allen gets the offensive game ball. The Michigan offense struggled to move the ball at all in the first half and Allen kept them in it with two field goals and then tacked on another to start the second half. He also booted eight punts for an average of 47.4 yards, most notably a 61-yarder that forced Noonie Murray to try to catch the ball over his shoulder and fumble, resulting in the first field goal. Allen ends his career as one of the best kickers in Michigan history.

Previous
Week 1 — Chris Evans (8 carries, 112 yards, 2 touchdowns)
Week 2 — Wilton Speight (25-of-37 for 312 yards, 4 touchdowns)
Week 3 — Jake Butt (7 receptions for 87 yards)
Week 4 — Grant Newsome, Ben Braden, Mason Cole, Kyle Kalis, Erik Magnuson (326 rush yards, 0 sacks allowed)
Week 5 — Amara Darboh (6 receptions for 87 yards, 1 touchdown)
Week 6 — Khalid Hill (2 carries for 2 yards and 2 touchdowns, 2 receptions for 19 yards and 1 touchdown)
Week 7 — Wilton Speight (16-of-23 for 253 yards, 2 touchdowns)
Week 8 — Amara Darboh (8 receptions for 165 yards)
Week 9 — Wilton Speight (19-of-24 for 362 yards, 2 touchdowns, 3 carries for 16 yards, 1 touchdown)
Week 10 — Kenny Allen (2-of-2 FGs, long of 51)
Week 11 — De’Veon Smith (23 carries for 158 yards, 2 touchdowns)
Week 12 — Kenny Allen (2-of-2 field goals, 7 punts for 47.4 average, 5 downed inside 20)

Game Ball – Defense

Taco Charlton (5 tackles (2 solo), 2 tackles for loss, 1 sack, 2 quarterback hurries)
Michigan’s defense gave up some big plays, but played very good when needed in the second half to key the comeback. Mike McCray could have gotten this week’s game ball for his pick-six, but as I think about who made the most impact defensively, it has to be Taco Charlton. The senior defensive end was consistently in the FSU backfield, pressuring Francois, and getting to him once. He showed why he may be the first Michigan player selected in this spring’s NFL Draft, solidifying the hype on the big stage.

Previous
Week 1 — Mike McCray (9 tackles, 3.5 tackles for loss, 2 sacks, 1 forced fumble)
Week 2 — Rashan Gary (6 tackles, 2.5 tackles for loss, 0.5 sacks)
Week 3 — Jabrill Peppers (9 tackles, 3.5 TFL, 1 sack, 2 kick ret. for 81 yards, 4 punt ret. for 99 yards, 1 TD)
Week 4 — Maurice Hurst (6 tackles, 3 solo, 3 tackles for loss, 1 sack)
Week 5 — Channing Stribling (2 tackles, 2 interceptions, 2 pass breakups)
Week 6 — Taco Charlton (2 tackles, 2 tackles for loss, 2 sacks)
Week 7 — Mike McCray (3 tackles, 0.5 tackles for loss, 1 fumble recovery, 2 quarterback hurries)
Week 8 — Jabrill Peppers (7 tackles, 2 tackles for loss, 1 sack, 1 two-point conversion fumble recovery return)
Week 9 — Delano Hill (6 tackles (5 solo), 0.5 tackles for loss, 2 interceptions)
Week 10 — Chris Wormley (6 tackles (2 solo), 2 tackles for loss, 1 sack)
Week 11 — Ryan Glasgow (7 tackles (5 solo), 3 tackles for loss, 1 sack, 1 forced fumble)
Week 12 — Taco Charlton (9 tackles (6 solo), 3 tackles for loss, 2.5 sacks)

M&GB staff predictions: Florida State

Friday, December 30th, 2016


StaffPicks_banner20152

Justin (3)

Unless Michigan’s offensive line has improved significantly over the past month, it’s going to be difficult to get a consistent running game against Florida State’s defensive front. As Josh detailed in yesterdays The Numbers Game, FSU is susceptible to the big play, so it’s likely that Michigan will move the ball in fits and spurts rather than with much consistency. And it’s also likely that it will be mostly through the air against a Florida State pass defense that has allowed half of its opponents to throw for more than 200 yards. Walker will probably wreck a drive or two, but if Wilton Speight is healthy after a month off he can carve apart the Florida State secondary.

Staff Predictions
Michigan    Florida St   
Justin 31 23
Derick 27 21
Sam 24 14
Josh 21 13
Joe 28 20
M&GB Average 26 18

Defensively, Michigan will have to stop — or at least slow down — Cook. We shouldn’t be too worried about Francois and the passing game beating Michigan’s top-ranked pass defense. But Cook will present some issues in the passing game out of the backfield. Michigan’s defense has had a knack for giving up big plays to running backs out of the backfield this season and Cook is the best they’ve faced this season. Don Brown faced Cook last season when he was at Boston College and held him to just 54 yards on 15 carries and two catches for three yards. If he can draw up a game plan to come close to repeating that performance Michigan will win. If the Michigan defense can stuff Cook on first and second down consistently, letting the pass rush loose on the porous FSU offensive line, it will be a big day for the Wolverines.

Overall, I see a game dominated by the defensive lines both ways, preventing either team from rushing consistently. Both teams will hit some big plays, but Michigan has the edge in the passing game and also on special teams. Expect a close game throughout with Michigan pulling it out late in the game.

Michigan 31 – Florida State 23

Derick (1)

Michigan routed Florida last season after a month of preparation, but Florida State is a tougher test in the Orange Bowl.

Michigan had an outside chance at the playoff, but now that it’s settling for a New Year’s Six bowl, how will it come out?

I think these are two of the best defenses in the country, with tons of NFL talent on both sides.

I think Michigan can at least limit Dalvin Cook and make enough plays in the secondary to pick up win No. 11 by a 27-21 score.

Michigan 27 – Florida State 21

Sam (3)

After narrowly missing out on a spot in the College Football Playoff, Michigan’s consolation prize is a trip to Miami to face the Seminoles of Florida State in the Orange Bowl. Something tells me that the crowd will not be overly kind to the Wolverines, but we’ll see how well the fan base travels south.

As for the matchup, there looks to be a case of strength versus weakness in Michigan’s pass rush facing a porous FSU offensive line, while Seminole running back Dalvin Cook could cause fits with his explosiveness in the running game. Wilton Speight’s health is still in question after gutting out a so-so performance against Ohio State a month ago, and a potent Florida State defensive line could cause more issues there.

If there’s one intangible for all bowl games, however, it’s the desire to be playing, and I don’t think Jim Harbaugh stands for anything less than full effort. With a star-studded senior class (and the biggest star of them all in Jabrill Peppers) playing in its last game in the Maize and Blue, I like the Wolverines to pull it out in a defensive showcase.

Michigan 24 – Florida State 14

Josh (1)

For me, Michigan is not in the playoff for one simple reason: they do not have a championship OL and if FSU wins that’ll be why. That lack of an elite OL could spell doom against the likes of DE DeMarcus Walker, who also lines up inside, and NT Derrick Nnadi. Mason Cole has struggled against the better NT’s Michigan has faced and Kyle Kalis has whiffed on far too many blocks to count (remember Walker lines up inside too). No team gets to the QB better than FSU (on a per game basis). However, oddly enough two of FSU’s three losses came to teams that aired it out on them. UNC put up 405 yards and Clemson 383. Clemson’s QB/WR combo is much better than Michigan’s, I’d give Michigan the WR edge over UNC, but not at QB. But what this does show is that if the OL can give the QB some time, FSU can be exploited through the air.

On the other side of the ball FSU brings in the best RB Michigan has faced all year, and one of the best in the country. His balance of speed, power, balance and vision is why he’s a surefire first-round pick. The key here is the edge, if Cook gets to the edge consistently I don’t like Michigan’s chances. He’s a threat to take it to the house every time he touches the ball. BUT, if Michigan can keep Cook somewhat contained and limit his chances for breakaway plays (read: MUST TACKLE) then Michigan will be in good shape.

Even better for Michigan’s chances is the fact that FSU struggles mightily to protect their RS Freshman QB, Deondre Francois. He gets hit and goes down a lot, 2.83 sacks per game, one of the worst in the nation. This bodes well for Michigan since they’ve spent quite a good deal of time introducing themselves to opposing QB’s and they themselves have one of the best front fours in the country. FSU has given up 2+ sacks in nine of eleven games against Power 5 teams, and 3+ in six of those, including 4 to BC and 6 to Clemson. Michigan has had at least 2+ sacks in eleven of twelve games, 3+ sacks in nine of twelve and 4+ sacks in six of twelve. They should have no problem getting to Francois multiple times.

If the Michigan OL can protect long enough and Speight is hitting the deep ball like he did the first 9 games, this should be a win, but if the Iowa or OSU version of this offense shows up, Michigan will head home with a loss. If FSU can force Michigan into 3rd and longs and unleash Walker and Nnadi on Speight it will be a long day. While the FSU run defense isn’t as stout as their pass rush, I’m not a huge fan of Michigan’s run blocking (in their 2-losses they were held under 100 yards AND under 3 yards per carry) so I think this game will come down to Speight and the OL pass blocking versus the FSU pass rush and coverage. Derrick Nnadi has to be double teamed, but that can become problematic with DeMarcus Walker also there.

Overall I think both defenses are the better units for each team, and better than the opposing team’s offense. However, I think the advantage Michigan’s defense has over FSU’s offense is slightly bigger than FSU’s defense vs. Michigan’s offense. That said, stranger things have happened and we don’t know how healthy Wilton Speight is.

There’s no doubt in my mind that Michigan will get to Francois four or five times. Where I pause is Dalvin Cook. He has 47 runs of 10+ in 268 carries, better than one for every six carries. Way more than anyone else Michigan has faced and Michigan has had some issues tackling this year, though they did a fairly good job bottling up Barrett/Samuels. It all boils down to whether Michigan can contain Dalvin Cook, and not many have. He’s had eight games of at least 120+ all-purpose yards and six of at least 179+, only three times was he held to under 6 yards per touch. The silver lining for Michigan? Both times Dalvin Cook faced Don Brown (at BC) he was held under 90 total yards, and just 57 last year.

Don Brown should be able to whip up a scheme to keep Cook in check, relatively, and the DL should have its way with Deondre Francois. The defense will do its job, this game will hinge on whether Michigan’s offense, the OL specifically, can get enough push for run game and give Speight enough time to survey the field. The OSU game left a bad taste in my mouth but this team is resilient and looking to go out on a high note, that and I don’t think FSU’s defense is as good as OSU’s.

It’ll be a very close game until the 4th when Michigan pulls away.

Michigan 21 – Florida State 13

Joe (6)

This is going to be a fun one to watch. I think this game boils down to 1 big matchup. The Michigan defensive front vs. FSU’s Dalvin Cook. This is most likely the best RB we’ve seen all year and can control the game if he gets going. I have confidence that he won’t as Michigan is healthy and itching to end the season on a high note. Michigan will control the clock and throw the ball often against a suspect FSU defense. Look for dominate performance along the lines with Michigan winning 28-20.

Michigan 28 – Florida State 20

Five-Spot Challenge: Florida State

Tuesday, December 27th, 2016


Congratulations to Maizenblu62 for his first Five-Spot Challenge win of the season the week of the Ohio State game. His deviation of 252.2 narrowly beat boggie‘s 257.8. Maizenblu62 wasn’t the closest to any single question, but was consistent across the board. His prediction of 112 for Wilton Speight’s quarterback rating was second-closest, his prediction of 145 Ohio State first-half yards was third closest, and his guess if 85 was just five away from the uniform number (or combination) of Michigan’s first touchdown. He wins a prize box of product from our sponsors, Lane’s BBQCultivate Coffee & Tap House, and Chayder Grilling Company.

Grahambino, kashkaav, Michigan Mack, HTTV137, and saline_ian all correctly predicted that Khalid Hill (80) would score Michigan’s first touchdown. Sistersueblue was just two away from Jabrill Peppers’ all-purpose yards (69). koakley@BIGLOTS.COM was just 10 away from J.T. Barrett’s rushing yards (125), was the only one to correctly predict that it would take at least 60 minutes for Michigan to reach 20 points, and was only one away from Michigan’s longest rush (16 yards). TheZachster was the closest to OSU’s first-half yards (145, 49 away). Boggie was just two away from Curtis Samuel’s total yards (86). Michigan Mack was only 1.8 away from Speight’s quarterback rating (122.2). JD Mackiewicz correctly predicted that the longest field goal of the game would be 37 yards. Finally, Jaeschke and artayay were both just one away from Peppers’ longest return (44 yards).

The weekly results and season standings have been updated.

Michigan returns to action on Friday against Florida State in the Capital One Orange Bowl. Here are this week’s picks.

Peppers named top defender, entire defense earns All-Big Ten

Wednesday, November 30th, 2016


peppers-vs-osu(Dustin Johnson, Maize ‘n Brew)

While Michigan’s regular season ended with a loss on Saturday it was a big winner when the Big Ten announced its defensive awards on Tuesday night.

Redshirt sophomore linebacker Jabrill Peppers was named the Nagurski-Woodson Defensive Player of the Year, the Butkis-Fitzgerald Linebacker of the Year, and the Rodgers-Dwight Return Specialist of the Year. He also joined Ohio State’s Raekwon McMillan and Wisconsin’s T.J. Watt as first-team All-Big Ten linebacker.

Peppers is the first Michigan defender to claim the Defensive Player of the Year award since Larry Foote in 2006 and he’s the fourth one to do it. He was also the first Big Ten player to claim all three awards in the same season.

Peppers ranked third on the team with 72 tackles, lead the team with 16 tackles for loss, and fourth with four sacks. He also lead the team with eight quarterback hurries and recorded his first career interception against Ohio State on Saturday. On special team, he lead the Big Ten with 310 punt return yards, averaging 14.8 yards per return with one touchdown. His 310 punt return yards also lead the nation and his 14.8-yard average ranked fifth.

Senior defensive back Jourdan Lewis became the first Wolverine to win the Tatum-Woodson Defensive Back of the Year award since it became an award in 2011. Despite missing three games, Lewis ranked second on the team with 10 pass breakups, picked off two passes, and recorded 3.5 tackles for loss.

Lewis joined Peppers, senior defensive end Taco Charlton, and senior defensive tackle Chris Wormley on the All-Big Ten first team, matching Ohio State’s four. Senior tackle Ryan Glasgow, senior safety Delano Hill, and senior defensive back Channing Stribling were named to the second team, while senior linebacker Ben Gedeon earned a third-team selection. Senior kicker Kenny Allen, senior tackle Matt Godin, redshirt junior Mike McCray, and senior Dymonte Thomas were honorable mention. The eight players Michigan got on the first through third teams were more than any other team.

The media had a few slight differences, dropping Wormley to second team and Hill to honorable mention, but elevating Gedeon to second team.

Jim Harbaugh took the opportunity to showcase the fact that every defensive starter was named to the All-Big Ten team, something he and the rest of his staff will most certainly use on the recruiting trail between now and National Signing Day.

The offensive awards and All-Big Ten teams will be announced on Wednesday.

#2 Ohio State 30 – #3 Michigan 27 (2 OT): Stunning loss a tragic tale in The Game’s lore

Monday, November 28th, 2016


barrett-4th-down(Jamie Sabau, Getty Images)

Michigan nearly did it all on Saturday in Columbus. They played well enough to beat rival Ohio State and earn a spot in the Big Ten championship game. They also played well enough to lose, turning the ball over three times, which lead to 14 OSU points. Ultimately, they didn’t play well enough to overcome both those turnovers and several questionable calls. In the end, the Wolverines suffered a fifth straight loss to their bitter rival, falling 30-27 in double overtime and may have exited the College Football Playoff race.

um-ohiostate_small-final
Final Stats
Michigan  Ohio State
Score 27 30
Record 10-2, 7-2 11-1, 8-1
Total Yards 310 330
Net Rushing Yards 91 206
Net Passing Yards 219 124
First Downs 16 23
Turnovers 3 1
Penalties-Yards 7-59 2-6
Punts-Yards 7-332 6-276
Time of Possession 31:13 28:47
Third Down Conversions 9-of-19 3-of-16
Fourth Down Conversions 1-of-1 2-of-3
Sacks By-Yards 8-27 2-16
Field Goals 2-for-2 1-for-3
PATs 3-for-3 3-for-3
Red Zone Scores-Chances 5-of-6 4-of-6
Red Zone Scores-TDs 3-of-6 3-of-6
Full Box Score

Nationally, the game will go down as an all-time thriller in college football’s greatest rivalry. For those who bleed maize and blue, it will join 1974 as one of the great tragedies of the rivalry.

In the 1974 Michigan-Ohio State game, Michigan kicker Mike Lantry booted a game-winning field goal from 33 yards out that would have given the 4th-ranked Wolverines a 13-12 victory and secured an undefeated record. But the officials called the kick no good and the home crowd stormed the field.

Bo Schembechler later told John U Bacon, “Those refs knew where they were reffing. They were reffing in Columbus that game, and that mattered.”

Fast forward 42 years and Bo’s sentiment rang true once again. The officiating crew on Saturday certainly knew where they were reffing, and in a great game between two titans that took two overtimes to be decided, that mattered.

In the second overtime, on 4th-and-1, Michigan’s defense stopped Ohio State quarterback J.T. Barrett right at the line to gain. Michigan fans will go to their graves knowing that he was stopped short, just as Lantry’s field goal was good. Instead, the officials ruled that he crossed the line and upheld it after replay. One play later, Curtis Samuel found the end zone to end the game.

But that wasn’t the only controversy. Michigan was penalized seven times for 59 yards in the game while the Buckeyes were flagged just twice for six yards. Michigan entered the game as the fourth-least penalized team in the Big Ten, averaging just 4.7 penalties per game. Ohio State came in as the third-most penalized team in the conference, averaging 6.5.

In fact, OSU had one game all season with fewer than four penalties and just four games all season with fewer than six. Did the Buckeyes suddenly become so disciplined that the only fouls they committed all game were one false start and a one-yard personal foul at the 2-yard line?

Sure, if you don’t think this is pass interference:

That was on third down in double overtime, forcing Michigan to kick a field goal. A correct pass interference gives Michigan a fresh set of downs around the Ohio State 12. Would Michigan have punched it into the end zone? Who knows. But they should have gotten the chance. Michigan safety Delano Hill got called for the exact same thing on 3rd-and-7 on Ohio State’s game-tying drive, keeping the Buckeyes’ drive alive.

Sure, Ohio State played a clean game if you don’t consider this pass interference:

That was also on third down, stopping a Michigan drive short and forcing a punt. A correct call would have given Michigan either 10 yards (if called holding) or 15 yards (if pass interference), putting the Wolverines on the cusp of field goal range. It was also one possession after Michigan defensive back Channing Stribling was called for defensive holding on Buckeye receiver Noah Brown.

Sure, Ohio State committed just two penalties. If you don’t think this isn’t a personal foul:

In an era of hyper-sensitivity surrounding concussions and CTE, a blind-side hit on a defenseless player away from the ball is called every single time. Except on the Buckeyes in Columbus. The umpire was right there watching it happen. But kept the flag on his hip.

Sure, Ohio State played perfectly. If you don’t consider this holding:

Fortunately on that play, Michigan safety Jordan Glasgow fought off the hold and made the tackle, stopping punter Cam Jonston short of the first down — much to the officiating crew’s chagrin. But that’s just one example of several holds that went uncalled.

Michigan played well enough to win on Saturday, and should have done so despite their mistakes. The Wolverines led for 39 minutes and trailed for just three and change. They controlled most of the game and they made a game-winning stop in the second overtime. But their drives were stopped short due to no-calls while Ohio State’s drives were extended by calls in their favor. Michigan was on the wrong side of every single call made in the game. And that’s not debatable. Don’t just take my word for it, the Michigan blogger. Ask those with no dog in the fight. Like Mike Greenberg. Or Spartan/Michigan-hater Jemele Hill. Every non-partial observer I talked to over the past 24 hours said the same thing.

Oh, those refs knew where they were reffing. They were reffing in Columbus, and that mattered.

Game Ball – Offense

Kenny Allen (2-of-2 field goals, 7 punts for 47.4 average, 5 downed inside 20)
Michigan’s offense moved the ball well early in the game, but struggled to get consistency in the second half. Part of that was penalties killing drives and part of it was that Ohio State just has a great defense. Wilton Speight completed 23-of-36 passes for 219 yards and two touchdowns, but he also committed three turnovers, which led to 14 Ohio State points. Amara Darboh could have gotten the game ball after catching eight passes for a game-high 68 yards and a great touchdown grab in overtime. But senior punter/kicker Kenny Allen gets the nod for the second time in three weeks. He made both field goals attempted — a 28-yarder in the second quarter and a 37-yarder in the second overtime. He also consistently pinned Ohio State’s offense deep in its own territory with a 47.4-yard average on his seven punts. OSU punter Cam Johnston entered the game as the Big Ten’s best punter, but Allen was the best punter on Saturday.

Previous
Week 1 — Chris Evans (8 carries, 112 yards, 2 touchdowns)
Week 2 — Wilton Speight (25-of-37 for 312 yards, 4 touchdowns)
Week 3 — Jake Butt (7 receptions for 87 yards)
Week 4 — Grant Newsome, Ben Braden, Mason Cole, Kyle Kalis, Erik Magnuson (326 rush yards, 0 sacks allowed)
Week 5 — Amara Darboh (6 receptions for 87 yards, 1 touchdown)
Week 6 — Khalid Hill (2 carries for 2 yards and 2 touchdowns, 2 receptions for 19 yards and 1 touchdown)
Week 7 — Wilton Speight (16-of-23 for 253 yards, 2 touchdowns)
Week 8 — Amara Darboh (8 receptions for 165 yards)
Week 9 — Wilton Speight (19-of-24 for 362 yards, 2 touchdowns, 3 carries for 16 yards, 1 touchdown)
Week 10 — Kenny Allen (2-of-2 FGs, long of 51)
Week 11 — De’Veon Smith (23 carries for 158 yards, 2 touchdowns)

Game Ball – Defense

Taco Charlton (9 tackles (6 solo), 3 tackles for loss, 2.5 sacks)
Michigan’s defense struggled in overtime, but for 60 minutes, it held the fifth-best scoring offense in the country to just 10 points, seven of those coming after Ohio State’s second interception gave them possession on the Michigan 13. A major part of the success was the dominant performance by Michigan’s defensive line, which led the way in sacking Barrett eight times and recording 12.5 tackles for loss. Senior defensive end Taco Charlton proved to be one of the nation’s best pass rushers, sacking Barret 2.5 times on his way to a nine-tackle performance. He finishes the regular season with a team-high 8.5 sacks.

Previous
Week 1 — Mike McCray (9 tackles, 3.5 tackles for loss, 2 sacks, 1 forced fumble)
Week 2 — Rashan Gary (6 tackles, 2.5 tackles for loss, 0.5 sacks)
Week 3 — Jabrill Peppers (9 tackles, 3.5 TFL, 1 sack, 2 kick ret. for 81 yards, 4 punt ret. for 99 yards, 1 TD)
Week 4 — Maurice Hurst (6 tackles, 3 solo, 3 tackles for loss, 1 sack)
Week 5 — Channing Stribling (2 tackles, 2 interceptions, 2 pass breakups)
Week 6 — Taco Charlton (2 tackles, 2 tackles for loss, 2 sacks)
Week 7 — Mike McCray (3 tackles, 0.5 tackles for loss, 1 fumble recovery, 2 quarterback hurries)
Week 8 — Jabrill Peppers (7 tackles, 2 tackles for loss, 1 sack, 1 two-point conversion fumble recovery return)
Week 9 — Delano Hill (6 tackles (5 solo), 0.5 tackles for loss, 2 interceptions)
Week 10 — Chris Wormley (6 tackles (2 solo), 2 tackles for loss, 1 sack)
Week 11 — Ryan Glasgow (7 tackles (5 solo), 3 tackles for loss, 1 sack, 1 forced fumble)

M&GB staff predictions: The Game

Saturday, November 26th, 2016


StaffPicks_banner20152

Previously this week: First Look: Ohio State, Tailgate Tuesday, Five-Spot Challenge, Big Ten power rankings, The Numbers GameGame preview

The day we look forward to all year is finally here. For the first time in 10 years both teams enter with enormously high expectations. Not only is a Big Ten championship game berth on the line, but a potential spot in the College Football Playoff is up for grabs. Win and you’re still alive. Lose and you’ll get a decent bowl game as a consolation prize.

Let’s not waste any more time with the pleasantries. You know the stakes. Here are this week’s picks:

Justin (2)

I’ll start with a disclaimer. This prediction is based on Speight being able to play the whole game. If he’s unable to play, or if he’s knocked out of the game, I predict a Michigan loss. But I’m hedging my bets on his shoulder not being quite as bad as Harbaugh let on the past couple of weeks.

In a game like this where both teams rank among the nation’s best both offensively and defensively, and both teams will come in full of emotion in a rivalry game, I like to think that they’ll both keep doing what the are good at — what got them there.

Staff Predictions
Michigan    Ohio St   
Justin 26 24
Derick 14 24
Sam 17 24
Josh 13 27
Joe 21 20
M&GB Average 18 24

As we saw in this week’s The Numbers Game, Ohio State’s defense has been susceptible to big plays, especially in the run game where they rank 77th nationally, giving up 5.91 explosive runs per game. In fact, they’re slightly worse in that regard than Indiana, which entered last week surrendering 5.7 per game — 70th nationally. We all know what Michigan’s running game did to the Hoosiers, racking up seven explosive runs including De’Veon Smith’s scampers of 39, 34, and 25 yards. We also know that on drives in which Michigan has an explosive play they score 73 percent of the time.

Michigan’s offense averages 11.36 explosive plays per game and OSU’s defense surrenders 8.09 per game. Let’s say Michigan’s offense gets eight and scores points on 75 percent of those. Even if they’re all field goals, that’s 18 points. But Michigan will score at least one touchdown, so now we’re into the 20s. Two puts them at 26 points — two touchdowns and four field goals — and I think that’s enough to win the game.

Michigan’s defense surrenders just 6.09 explosive plays per game — fifth nationally — while Ohio State’s offense averages 11.09 (16th). The Wolverines haven’t surrendered more than nine explosive plays in non-garbage time this season. But even so, even if Ohio State’s powerful offense gets its average of 11, Michigan’s defense gives up points just 35 percent of the time. That equates to four scores and I doubt all four will be touchdowns as Michigan has surrendered just 14 all season. Three touchdowns and a field goal is 24 points.

Sure, it may be slightly ridiculous to base a prediction on explosive play stats, but they’ve been pretty accurate all season. And now we have 11 games worth of data to use. If Speight plays, Michigan’s offense will be able to move the ball well enough to put up some point on the Buckeyes, even if they settle for field goals. Senior Kenny Allen will come up big by making all of them. Harbaugh and offensive coordinator Tim Drevno will empty the kitchen sink trying to soften the Buckeye defense for Smith to get the running game going.

On the other side, Michigan will surrender a few big plays, likely including the 50-yard touchdown run up the middle that has become standard for OSU in this game. But by and large, the U-M defense will hold strong and keep the Bucks out of rhythm.

The game live up to its billing, going down to the wire. Allen boots a game-winning field goal, Michigan escapes the snake pit with its first win in 16 years, and heads to Indy for a rematch with Wisconsin. Of course, if Speight doesn’t play, this could be all moot.

Michigan 26 – Ohio State 24

Derick (1)

It’s finally time for the game everyone has been waiting for, and it’s even more important than we all imagined. Michigan and Ohio State will be fighting to stay alive in the College Football Playoff race, while the loser will be out of the running.

Last year, Michigan appeared to have a good chance to take down Ohio State at home, but the combination of J.T. Barrett and an excellent running back tore the Wolverines apart. Unfortunately for Michigan, that combination still exists.

Three weeks ago, I thought Michigan was the better team, but after a loss to Iowa and an awful offensive performance against Indiana at the home finale, that confidence has started to slip away.

I think Michigan is one of the three best teams in the country this season, but I think it will come up short on Saturday.

Ohio State 24 – Michigan 14

Sam (3)

So this is what it has all come down to. This, for all the marbles. A win for Michigan means a Big Ten championship game berth for the first time since its inception and one game closer to their first ever appearance in the College Football Playoff.

Unfortunately, I’m not nearly as hopeful about the outcome of this game as I was about three weeks ago when it looked as if the Wolverine offense was inching closer to their vaunted defense. One miserable performance and one quarterback injury later and the offense is looking fairly pedestrian of late while the defense continues to play about as well could be reasonably expected.

If the Maize and Blue are to have any shot it’s going to need to come in a defensive slugfest with a ground game that’s just good enough to put a couple scores on the board. I have an inkling that if Jabrill Peppers records his first ever interception, the visitors will walk away victorious. I also have an inkling that we we won’t be seeing that.

I trust Don Brown’s defense to hold the Buckeyes at bay for the most part but I have little faith that Michigan’s offense is going to be able to consistently churn yardage out against a stout OSU defense with what is likely to be a one-dimensional attack. In the end, J.T. Barrett will make the difference over John O’Korn to maintain Buckeye dominance of late in this yearly war and keep Harbaugh’s squad out of the final four. As much as it pains me to say it, give me Ohio State.

Ohio State 24 – Michigan 17

Josh (1)

I’ll just come out and say it: If anyone other than a close to 100 percent Wilton Speight comes out on the first series I don’t see Michigan winning this game. I said in my preseason prediction that Michigan would lose to Iowa (they did) and OSU. I also said that serious injuries to key players could derail the season. If Speight is out, Michigan loses; plain and simple. I just don’t see how John O’Korn can lead them to victory in Columbus.

That said, IF Wilton Speight does play I think Michigan has an excellent chance to win.

On defense, Michigan needs to have figured out how to stop the missed tackling issues and they need to seal the edge. If not, Curtis Samuel is going to run rampant downfield. J.T. Barrett doesn’t scare me if he’s forced to pass, the problem is when the defense loses contain. I’m interested to see what Don Brown has cooked up. Personally, I’d use the pass rush to contain him and just slowly close the pocket around him and trust the back end to do their jobs. But Don Brown is not exactly known for being a passive, sit back and wait coordinator. However, this is why he was brought in; to solve the problem OSU’s offense presents and to win The Game.

If they can keep Barrett from escaping pressure and finally seal the edge to keep Samuels and Mike Weber from breaking free for long runs then Michigan should be able to give the offense enough to work with to come out with the win.

On offense, Michigan needs to keep OSU honest with a balanced attack and they ABSOLUTELY HAVE TO hit a few deep balls so the running game doesn’t get bottled up. As much as I love the running backs Michigan has not one of them possesses all the skills of an elite back. Penn State’s Saquan Barkley and Michigan State’s L.J. Scott had some great games against this defense, but I don’t think any one back on Michigan is as good as either of those two. Every single guy who carries the ball has to bring his A-game for Michigan to win. OSU needs to be thinking about who is back there and what he can and cannot do, information overload.

Amara Darboh and Jehu Chesson just need to keep being themselves but Jake Butt and his tight end cohorts need to be a bigger part of the passing attack. They are built to wreak havoc against OSU’s defense.

All signs point to O’Korn, not Speight, being the quarterback this weekend and I don’t see how he can improve that much from last week to be able to pull out a win in Columbus. I called this a loss in the preseason and unfortunately I am going to keep it that way.

Ohio State 27 – Michigan 13

Joe (6)

It’s finally here. The biggest game of the entire NCAA football season. This one will be special on all fronts. I’m not even going to go into all the different scenarios and player predictions. Let’s just say Michigan wins by one.

Michigan 21 – Ohio State 20

The Game preview: #3 Michigan at #2 Ohio State

Friday, November 25th, 2016


um-osu-game-preview-header(Dustin Johnson)

Ten years ago, No. 2 Michigan met No. 1 Ohio State on a crisp fall day in Columbus in what was being called The Game of the Century. With the Big Ten championship game and College Football Playoff still years away, the winner of The Game would earn a spot in the BCS Championship Game.

um-ohiostate_small
Quick Facts
Ohio Stadium – 12p.m. ET – ABC
Ohio State Head Coach: Urban Meyer (5th season)
Coaching Record: 164-28 (60-5 at OSU)
Offensive Coordinator: Ed Warriner (5th season)
Co-Defensive Coordinators: Greg Schiano (1st season)
Luke Fickell (12th season)
Last Season: 12-1 (7-1 Big Ten)
Last Meeting: OSU 42 – UM 13
All-Time Series: Michigan 58-48-6
Record in Columbus: Michigan 27-26-2
Jim Harbaugh vs OSU 0-1
Last Michigan win: 2011 (40-34)
Last Ohio State win: 2015 (42-13)
Current Streak: Ohio State 4
Ohio State Schedule to date
Opponent Result
Bowling Green W 77-10
Tulsa W 48-3
at #14 Oklahoma W 45-24
Rutgers W 58-0
Indiana W 38-17
at #8 Wisconsin W 30-23
at Penn State L 21-24
Northwestern W 24-20
#10 Nebraska W 62-3
at Maryland W 62-3
at Michigan State W 17-16

After delivering a rousing speech to the team on Thursday night, Bo Schembechler passed away on Friday morning, the day before the game. The loss of the patriarch of Michigan football sent shockwaves around college football and completely changed the tone of the game. Whether it made an impact on the outcome of the game will never be known, but the game turned out to be a shootout. Michigan marched down the field for the game’s first touchdown. Ohio State answered and took a 28-14 halftime lead. Michigan fought back to within four, but was unable to pull it out as Ohio State won 42-39.

We all know the long and painful story from there. Michigan went on to lost the Rose Bowl to USC, then lost the first two games of the next season to Appalachian State and Oregon. Lloyd Carr retired at the end of the season and Michigan suffered through seven seasons of Rich Rodriguez and Brady Hoke.

Ohio State, meanwhile, went on to win four Big Ten championships, two BCS bowls, and play in three national championship games, winning one of them. During that span, they’ve beaten Michigan all but once, when the Wolverines pulled off a 40-34 win in Hoke’s first season, which was also a transition season between Jim Tressel and Urban Meyer.

Jim Harbaugh returned to Michigan in December 2014 and immediately locked in a solid recruiting class in short time and then turned a 5-7 team into a 10-3 team that beat SEC East champion Florida in the Capital One Bowl. But he wasn’t able to beat Ohio State, falling 42-13 in Ann Arbor. Now, 30 years after his infamous guaranteed victory over the Buckeyes, he takes his Wolverines into Columbus to try to earn a spot in the Big Ten championship game.

Ohio State comes in with an identical 10-1 overall record and 7-1 conference record as Michigan. The Buckeyes’ only loss was a 24-21 defeat at Penn State just a couple weeks after Michigan beat the Nittany Lions by 39 points. But OSU has beaten now-8th-ranked Oklahoma and 6th-ranked Wisconsin, both on the road. Add in a 62-3 thumping of now-16th-ranked Nebraska, and Ohio State has proven it can play with anyone.

Like that Game of the Century a decade ago, this year’s matchup figures to be a monumental battle between two of college football titans. In college football’s greatest rivalry, what more could you ask for? Let’s take a look at the matchups.

When Ohio State has the ball

Despite losing their running back, quarterback, tight end, most of the receiving corps, and their left tackle to the NFL, Ohio State’s offense hasn’t really missed a beat. It leads the Big Ten and ranks fifth nationally in scoring (43.8 points per game), leads the Big Ten and ranks eighth nationally in rushing (263.1 yards per game), ranks fifth in the Big Ten and 68th nationally in passing (230 yards per game), and leads the Big Ten and ranks 21st nationally in total offense (493.1 yards per game).

That the Buckeyes lost last season’s quarterback is slightly overstated given that junior J.T. Barrett is back. He started his freshman season, going 11-1 in 2014 before ending his season against Michigan and watching Cardale Jones lead the team to the national title. Jones won the starting job last season, but Barrett saw ample playing time, including a four-touchdown performance in last year’s Michigan game.

This season, Barrett leads the Big Ten with 24 passing touchdowns, though he ranks sixth in yards per game (209.5) — one spot behind Wilton Speight’s 215.6 — and third in pass efficiency (147.7) — one behind Speight’s 148.9. He has completed 63.4 percent of his passes for 2,304 yards and just four interceptions. But he’s coming off his worst passing performance of the season against Michigan State, in which he completed just 10-of-22 passes for 86 yards and a touchdown. Still, he’s even more dangerous with his legs as he rushed for 105 yards. He has thrown for more than 200 yards in seven of 11 games, including a five-game stretch leading up to the MSU game, and he’s also tied for the team lead with eight rushing touchdowns.

Michigan fans will be familiar with redshirt freshman running back Mike Weber, the Detroit Cass Tech product who originally committed to Brady Hoke, decommitted in favor of Ohio State, and nearly switched back to Michigan after Harbaugh was hired. But he stuck with the Buckeyes and has rewarded them with a 1,000-yard season in his first campaign. He currently ranks fourth in the Big Ten in rushing, averaging 95.1 yards per game. He has rushed for 1,046 yards and eight touchdowns on 6.3 yards per carry. But after opening the season with three 100-yard games in his first four, he has just one in the last seven games. He rushed for 111 yards on 14 carries at Michigan State last Saturday. Penn State and Wisconsin held him to a combined 3.6 yards per carry.

The receiving corps is lead by the dangerous H-back Curtis Samuel. The junior from Brooklyn, N.Y. has 61 receptions for 790 yards and seven touchdowns — all team highs — and he also has 84 carries for 650 yards and seven scores. His 14 total touchdowns rank third in the Big Ten (non-quarterbacks) and he ranks second in the conference behind Penn State’s Saquon Barkley with 132.5 all-purpose yards per game. Sophomore Noah Brown is the team’s second leading receiver with 27 catches for 345 yards and seven touchdowns, while senior Dontre Wilson has 26 for 343 and five. Junior tight end Marcus Baugh is the only other Buckeye receiver with 20 or more receptions with 21 for 242 yards and two scores.

Ohio State’s offensive line is good but not great. They’ve given up one more sack than Michigan’s has this season, but some of that success is a result of Barrett’s mobility. Senior center Pat Elflein and junior right guard Billy Price are the are the best linemen on the team. Elflein was a second-team All-American last season. Sophomore right tackle Isaiah Prince and freshman left guard Michael Jordan are the weaknesses on the line where Michigan’s talented defensive front will attack. Junior left tackle Jamarco Jones has improved throughout the season and is a solid bookend.

When Michigan has the ball

The Buckeye defense ranks second in the Big Ten and third nationally in scoring defense (13 points per game), fourth in the Big Ten and 18th nationally against the run (120.3 yards per game) second in the Big Ten and third nationally against the pass (159.5 yards per game), and second in the Big Ten and fourth nationally in total defense (279.8 yards per game).

Like on the offensive side, despite losing much of their defense to the NFL, the Buckeyes still present the best and most athletic defense Michigan has faced yet this season. But they’re not as great at getting to the quarterback as they have been in years past, ranking just sixth in the Big Ten and 57th nationally with 24 sacks — two-thirds of Michigan’s total. Junior defensive end Tyquan Lewis leads the way in that category with 7.5 sacks, while the other end, sophomore Sam Hubbard, has three. Reserve ends, junior Jalyn Holmes and freshman Nick Bosa, have another six combined. The interior of the OSU line is lead by redshirt freshman Dre’Mont Jones and junior nose tackle Michael Hill who have a combined 59 tackles and five tackles for loss, but no sacks. Freshman backup tackle Robert Landers is also talented with 7.5 tackles for loss and one sack on the season.

There’s no dropoff at linebacker where junior Raekwon McMillan is one of the best middle linebackers in the country. He’s Ohio State’s leading tackler with 71, has 4.5 tackles for loss, one sack, four pass breakups, and two forced fumbles. He’s much more athletic than your typical middle ‘backer. Sophomore WILL Jerome Baker and junior SAM Chris Worley are solid with 103 combined tackles, 12 tackles for loss, 2.5 sacks, two interceptions, and six passes defended.

The secondary is lead by sophomore safety Malik Hooker, who leads the Big Ten with five interceptions and is dangerous with the ball in his hands, having returned two of them for touchdowns. He ranks third on the team with 60 tackles in addition to 4.5 tackles for loss, half a sack, and nine passes defended. He’s all over the field, both in coverage and run support. Junior Damon Webb — another Cass Tech star that got away from Michigan — is the other safety and he has 48 tackles, two for loss, one interception, and four passes defended. Junior Gareon Conley — a former Michigan commit — and sophomore Marshon Lattimore are the corners and both are very good.

The other third

Fifth-year senior punter Cam Johnston is one of Ohio State’s best weapons, leading the Big Ten in punting average by a whopping 4.5 yards! He’s averaging 46.3 yards per punt with 13 of 43 punts over 50 yards and nearly half (21) downed inside the 20. Senior kicker Tyler Durbin has been the Big Ten’s most reliable placekicker, converting 16-of-17 field goals, the only miss being the block at Penn State. But the former walk-on’s long all season has been 45 yards.

Sophomore receiver Parris Campbell is a dangerous kick returner even though he hasn’t taken one all the way yet. He averages 26.6 yards per return. Wilson is the main punt returner, averaging 6.3 yards per return.

Prediction

I’ll start with a disclaimer. This prediction is based on Speight being able to play the whole game. If he’s unable to play, or if he’s knocked out of the game, I predict a Michigan loss. But I’m hedging my bets on his shoulder not being quite as bad as Harbaugh let on the past couple of weeks.

In a game like this where both teams rank among the nation’s best both offensively and defensively, and both teams will come in full of emotion in a rivalry game, I like to think that they’ll both keep doing what the are good at — what got them there.

As we saw in this week’s The Numbers Game, Ohio State’s defense has been susceptible to big plays, especially in the run game where they rank 77th nationally, giving up 5.91 explosive runs per game. In fact, they’re slightly worse in that regard than Indiana, which entered last week surrendering 5.7 per game — 70th nationally. We all know what Michigan’s running game did to the Hoosiers, racking up seven explosive runs including De’Veon Smith’s scampers of 39, 34, and 25 yards. We also know that on drives in which Michigan has an explosive play they score 73 percent of the time.

Michigan’s offense averages 11.36 explosive plays per game and OSU’s defense surrenders 8.09 per game. Let’s say Michigan’s offense gets eight and scores points on 75 percent of those. Even if they’re all field goals, that’s 18 points. But Michigan will score at least one touchdown, so now we’re into the 20s. Two puts them at 26 points — two touchdowns and four field goals — and I think that’s enough to win the game.

Michigan’s defense surrenders just 6.09 explosive plays per game — fifth nationally — while Ohio State’s offense averages 11.09 (16th). The Wolverines haven’t surrendered more than nine explosive plays in non-garbage time this season. But even so, even if Ohio State’s powerful offense gets its average of 11, Michigan’s defense gives up points just 35 percent of the time. That equates to four scores and I doubt all four will be touchdowns as Michigan has surrendered just 14 all season. Three touchdowns and a field goal is 24 points.

Sure, it may be slightly ridiculous to base a prediction on explosive play stats, but they’ve been pretty accurate all season. And now we have 11 games worth of data to use. If Speight plays, Michigan’s offense will be able to move the ball well enough to put up some point on the Buckeyes, even if they settle for field goals. Senior Kenny Allen will come up big by making all of them. Harbaugh and offensive coordinator Tim Drevno will empty the kitchen sink trying to soften the Buckeye defense for Smith to get the running game going.

On the other side, Michigan will surrender a few big plays, likely including the 50-yard touchdown run up the middle that has become standard for OSU in this game. But by and large, the U-M defense will hold strong and keep the Bucks out of rhythm.

The game live up to its billing, going down to the wire. Allen boots a game-winning field goal, Michigan escapes the snake pit with its first win in 16 years, and heads to Indy for a rematch with Wisconsin. Of course, if Speight doesn’t play, this could be all moot.

Michigan 26 – Ohio State 24

Five-Spot Challenge 2016: Ohio State

Tuesday, November 22nd, 2016


Congratulations to Grahambino for picking up his first win of the season. His deviation of 163 was seven points better than second place Glhermance. Grahambino won because of his realistic expectations of John O’Korn’s first start. His prediction of 175 passing yards was the second closest to O’Korn’s actual of just 59 yards. He was also fifth closest to Indiana’s rushing yards (64, 61 away), fourth closest to the minutes until Michigan’s first punt (four, four away), and fifth closest to IU’s longest pass (37 yards, five away). He wins a prize box of product from our sponsors, Lane’s BBQCultivate Coffee & Tap House, and Chayder Grilling Company.

Gvanneste was the closest to O’Korn’s passing yards at 66 away. GrizzlyJFB was the closest to Indiana’s rushing yards, just eight away. TheZachster and Northsiders7 were each just one away from the yards gained on Michigan’s first possession (39), while sckonwin was only one away from the minutes until Michigan’s first punt (four). Finally, Zigmun correctly predicted that Indiana’s longest pass completion would be 37 yards.

As usual, no one correctly predicted the final score. Last week’s Five-Spot Challenge winner, Sistersueblue, was the closest with her prediction of Michigan 28 – Indiana 17. The 26 contestants predicted an average score of Michigan 36 – Indiana 14.

The weekly results and season standings have been updated.

The week we’ve all been waiting for all season has arrived. In three days, Michigan and Ohio State will square off with a spot in the Big Ten championship game on the line. As usual, since the stakes are higher for this one, we’ve added a few extra questions for The Game.