Zack Novak hit 5-of-7 three-point attempts and led Michigan with 17 points (photo by MGoBlue.com)

Michigan traveled to Fayetteville for a unique midseason out of conference matchup with Southeastern Conference opponent Arkansas. While it meant nothing for the Big Ten race, a win would have allowed Michigan to maintain its momentum from its third straight win over rival Michigan State. But it wasn’t meant to be as Michigan fell 66-64 in front of a packed Bud Walton Arena.

Arkansas jumped out to an early 11-2 lead as Michigan missed four of its first five shots. Zack Novak hit the first of his five three-pointers but through the first 10 minutes of the game, Michigan had fallen behind 29-10. The Michigan offense finally came alive, outplaying the Razorbacks for the final 10 minutes of the first half and went into the locker room down 46-33.

Arkansas opened the second half with a three, but eight straight points by Jordan Morgan and a layup by Novak got Michigan right back in the game, trailing by just six. Michigan then went ice cold, failing to score a point for nearly six minutes, and Arkansas widened its lead  back to 13. But Michigan wasn’t done yet. Morgan ignited a 12-1 Michigan run. Another Novak three pulled Michigan to within two with 3:48 to play.

Over the final three minutes, the teams traded a pair of baskets and Michigan was forced to foul, trailing by two with 21 seconds remaining. Arkansas freshman guard B.J. Young missed a free throw, but the Razorbacks grabbed the offensive board and Michigan had to f0ul again. Once again it was missed and this time Michigan grabbed the board. In the final seconds, Trey Burke got off a three but it rattled in and out at the buzzer and Arkansas pulled off the upset.

Novak led the way for the Wolverines, scoring 17 points and grabbing eight rebounds. His 5-of-7 shooting from three-point range was the lone bright spot for the team as Michigan went 8-for-28 from downtown. Morgan contributed 16 points on 7-of-11 shooting and Burke was the only other Wolverine in double figures with 13. He also added seven rebounds and six assists for a well-rounded day. Tim Hardaway Jr continued his recent struggles, scoring just nine points on 3-of-8 shooting.

Michigan outrebounded the Razorbacks 35-29 and pulled down 13 offensive boards, but Arkansas attempted 21 free throws to Michigan’s seven and made seven more than Michigan did.

Michigan returns to Big Ten play on Tuesday night with a road trip to West Lafayette, Ind. to battle the Purdue Boilermakers (14-6, 4-3) who just got drubbed by Michigan State 83-58.

Trey Burke hit clutch free throws down the stretch to carry Michigan over Northwestern (photo by MGoBlue.com)

Michigan took to the court in the Crisler Center on a Wednesday night in which the Sugar Bowl winning football team was honored and held off a pesky Northwestern squad that it has had trouble with the last few years. The Wildcats led most of the game, but Michigan fought back with the resolve of Team 132 and picked up its 14th win of the season.

Northwestern started the game with an 8-0 lead before Michigan finally got on the board four minutes into the game. Michigan battled back to a 15-15 tie before Northwestern pulled away again and the Wolverines trailed 34-27 at the half.

In the second half, trailing 44-36, Michigan went on a 10-0 run to grab its first lead of the game. For the final 10 minutes, the two teams went back and forth, neither team leading by more than four.

With 2:44 remaining, Tim Hardaway Jr hit a three to tie the game at 54 and neither team would score again in regulation.

In overtime, Northwestern star John Shurna got scoring started with his first basket since the 9:15 mark of the second half, but Stu Douglass answered with a layup of his own. A pair of Evan Smotrycz free throws put Michigan ahead by two, but NW center Luka Mirkovic tied it up. On Michigan’s next possession, Trey Burke grabbed a pair of offensive boards and finally finished a short jumper to put Michigan back ahead.

Following Burke’s jumper, Jordan Morgan was called for a technical foul, giving Northwestern guard Drew Crawford two free throws. He made one and the Wildcats were unable to take advantage of the extra possession. Burke went to the line and hit a par of free throws to put Michigan ahead by three. Two free throws by each team later, Crawford dunked it to pull NW within one. Burke went back to the line and made both, giving Michigan a three point lead with six seconds remaining.

Northwestern guard Alex Marcotullio put up a desperation three with one second left and Hardaway inexplicably fouled him, sending him to the line for three shots. However, he missed the first, NW was unable to tip in a buzzer-beater, and Michigan escaped.

Hardaway and Burke led the way with 19 for Michigan and Douglass added 10. Hardaway finally broke out of his three-point shooting slump, hitting 5-of-9 attempts, while Burke hit all eight attempted free throws.

As a team, Michigan took 18 more shots than Northwestern and fired up 30 threes to NW’s 13. The biggest key to Michigan’s success was its second chances, aided by 17 offensive rebounds. Northwestern also turned the ball over an uncharacteristic 16 times.

For Northwestern, Shurna got his 21 points, but most importantly, he disappeared for the final nine minutes of the game and overtime. Michigan’s defense did a good job of forcing tough shots and limiting the Wildcats to one shot possessions down the stretch.

Next, Michigan visits Iowa (10-8, 2-3) on Saturday at 1pm Eastern time before the first of two meetings with rival Michigan State on Tuesday.

On Sunday, Michigan dominated then-16th-ranked Wisconsin, ultimately knocking the Badgers out of the ranking. Tonight, Michigan faces a tough trap game against a better-than-you-think Northwestern squad.

#13 Michigan v. Northwestern
	Wed., Jan. 11 6:30 p.m. ET Big Ten Network Ann Arbor, Mich.
13-3 (3-1)	Record	11-4 (1-2)
Ferris State 59-33 Towson 64-47 W. Illinois 59-55 #8 Memphis 73-61 UCLA 79-63 Iowa State 79-66 Oakland 90-80 Ark. Pine-Bluff 63-50 Alabama A&M 87-57 Bradley 77-66 Penn State 71-53 Minnesota 61-56 #16 Wisconsin 59-41	Wins	Texas Pan-Am 60-36 LSU 88-82 Tulsa 69-65 Seton Hall 80-73 Stony Brook 63-58 Georgia Tech 73-60 Miss. Valley State 92-67 Texas Southern 81-51 C. Connecticut St. 70-64 E. Illinois 87-72 Penn State 68-56
#6 Duke 75-82 Virginia 58-70 #11 Indiana 71-73	Losses	#8 Baylor 41-69 #21 Creighton 79-87 #2 Ohio State 54-87 Illinois 56-57
70.1	Points Per Game	70.9
59.6	Scoring Defense	65.6
407-for-856 (47.5%)	Field Goal %	371-for-828 (44.8%)
342-for-847 (40.4%)	Def. Field Goal %	360-for-832 (43.3%)
135-for-370 (36.5%)	3-point %	135-for-367 (36.8%)
105-for-303 (34.7%)	Def. 3-point %	92-for-269 (34.2%)
173-for-248 (69.8%)	Free Throw %	187-for-265 (70.6%)
10.8	Free Throws Made/Game	12.5
33.9	Rebounds Per Game	31.5
30.6	Opp. Rebounds Per Game	36.3
14.0	Assists Per Game	16.7
11.9	Turnovers Per Game	10.0
5.1	Steals Per Game	6.5
2.5	Blocks Per Game	4.3
G – Tim Hardaway (15.9) G – Trey Burke (13.8)	Leading Scorer	G – John Shurna (18.7) G – Drew Crawford (17.3)
F – Evan Smotrycz (6.6) F – Jordan Morgan (5.7)	Leading Rebounder	G – John Shurna (6.1) G – Drew Crawford (5.0)

Northwestern comes in at 11-4 and 1-2 in Big Ten play. Three of the Wildcats’ four losses have been to ranked teams, #8 Baylor, #21 Creighton, and #2 Ohio State. The other was a one-point loss to Illinois, who just upset Ohio State last night. Though Northwestern doesn’t have a win over a ranked team, the Wildcats have beaten 11-4 LSU at home and Georgia Tech on the road in the Big Ten/ACC Challenge. The rest of the schedule has been made up of cupcakes that Northwestern has handled rather easily.

Northwestern is led by two players, John Shurna and Drew Crawford. Shurna has been in Evanston for an eternity and leads the Big Ten, averaging 18.7 points per game this season.  He also leads the Wildcats in rebounds with 6.1 per contest. He has hit 41-of-97 three-pointers (42.3 percent), although his rate has tailed off a bit in Big Ten play so far, having hit only 6-of-19 (31.6 percent). He scored 37 against LSU, 32 against Eastern Illinois, and 25 against Georgia Tech, so he has the ability to fill it up. Ohio State and Baylor each held him to just 11 points on 5-of-18 and 4-of-19 shooting, respectively, so he can be slowed down.

Crawford ranks fourth in the Big Ten with 17.3 points per game and ranks second on the team in rebounding with five per game. While he has attempted fewer threes than Shurna, he shoots at a slightly better clip, having hit 29-of-67 (43.3 percent) so far this season. He poured in 34 against Creighton, 28 against Tulsa, and 27 against Seton Hall, so like Shurna, he can make you pay. The only game he was held to single digits was last Wednesday’s loss to Illinois when he scored just eight on 3-of-12 shooting.

Outside of Shurna and Crawford, the Wildcats have a bunch of role players. The team’s third-leading scorer is freshman guard Dave Sobolewski at 8.3 points per game. He’s also a pretty good three-point shooter, having connected on 22-of-62 (35.5 percent). Scoring-wise, he’s had his ups and downs. He scored a career high 20 against Penn State, but has been held to six or fewer points seven times this season.

Inside, the Wildcats rely on 6’11″ senior center Luka Mirkovic, who averages 7.4 points and just 4.3 rebounds a game and senior forward David Curletti who averages 3.7 points.

As you can see, the Wildcats aren’t an inside team and love to shoot the three. They have done it to nearly the exact same tune as Michigan, having made the exact same amount in three less attempts. Like years past Bill Carmody’s squad likes to control the tempo and rely on sound fundamentals and outside shooting. Look for Michigan to get the ball down low to Jordan Morgan and try to attack the basket more than usual. But I caution you to look to lightly at this game as Northwestern has won three of the last four meetings.

Evan Smotrycz turned in his second straight double-double (photo by MGoBlue.com)

Michigan returned to the court Thursday night with a hard-fought 77-66 win over Bradley in the newly-named Crisler Center. All five Wolverine starters scored in double-digits, led by Evan Smotrycz’ second straight double-double. The sophomore scored 20 points and grabbed 10 rebounds.

Michigan shot just 35 percent in the first half as Bradley made it a game, taking a 33-33 tie into the locker room. Bradley’s Taylor Brown hit a long three at the buzzer to tie the score heading into the half.

The game remained close through the first nine minutes of the second half before Michigan took over. Leading just 52-49, with just under 12 minutes to play, Michigan embarked on a 19-7 run to take control. Michigan shot 59 percent in the second half.

Tim Hardaway scored 16 points and Jordan Morgan added 15. Freshman point guard Trey Burke tallied 12 points and eight assists, while Zack Novack added 11. Burke struggled from the outside, connecting on just 1-of-7 three-pointers, but Smotrycz was the man of the match, hitting 5-of-7 from downtown and 7-of-11 overall.

Michigan opens Big Ten play next Thursday against Penn State (8-5) in the Crisler Center.

Tim Hardaway Jr. scored 19 points in the second half but it wasn't enough to overcome a large halftime deficit (photo by Eugene Tanner, AP)

Michigan put up a good fight but Duke was too much for the Wolverines on this night, handing Michigan its first loss of the season.

Michigan fell behind 9-0 in the first four minutes before Jordan Morgan got Michigan on the board. The Wolverines pulled to within 11-9, but Duke used a 19-6 run to blow the game open at 30-15 before going into the half with a 12-point advantage.

Michigan came out hot in the second half, cutting the lead to five at 40-35. But Duke was too much. Each time Michigan seemed poised to come back, a timely three would be made or rebound grabbed to keep Michigan at bay.

Duke built a 66-49 lead with 7:32 remaining, but Michigan still had some fight left. A pair of buckets by Morgan and a jumper and free throw by Tim Hardaway Jr. cut the lead to 11. After trading baskets, Michigan cut it to eight and kept chipping away, but time was running out.

Hardaway made two straight layups to pull Michigan within six with 1:15 remaining and after some Duke free throws, Zack Novak hit a three to cut it to five. But that was as close as Michigan would get as Duke made the most of its free throw opportunities, going 13-for-16 down the stretch.

Hardaway led the way for Michigan with 19 points, all coming in the second half after getting held scoreless in the first. Freshman Trey Burke held his own, scoring 17 points and dishing out nine assists, while Morgan scored 12 and pulled down six rebounds and Novak added 11 points.

Michigan outrebounded the Blue Devils 31-27 and played a great second half, scoring 53 points on 62 percent shooting, including 5-for-11 from three-point range. However, it was the first half that doomed Michigan. They hit just 10-of-29 shots in the first 20 minutes, going 2-for-10 from three, and the hole they dug was too much to overcome.

Duke was the more balanced team, with the ability to score from all five players on the court. Austin Rivers (20 points), Seth Curry (17), and Andre Dawkins are too dangerous to be left open, but the big guys inside are dangerous enough to draw attention as well. Even so, Michigan proved it can hang with one of the best teams in the nation, and the test will serve them well in Big Ten play.

Michigan will conclude the Maui Invitational on Wednesday at 7:30pm Eastern time against the winner of Kansas and UCLA in the consolation game.

Jon Horford slams home two of his six points (AP photo)

Michigan kicked off the EA Sports Maui Invitational in style with a 73-61 victory over the Memphis Tigers. Memphis was obviously the most athletic of the teams, but Michigan played much smarter and more disciplined, inviting the ball pressure and picking it apart with back cuts and solid guard play.

Tim Hardaway Jr. led the way for Michigan with 21 points and got the Wolverines off to a fast start. The sophomore scored nine of Michigan’s first 18 points as Michigan jumped out to a 18-9 lead.

Memphis battled back with a 10-2 run of its own and even took a four point lead with three minutes left in the first half. But just before the half, Michigan used a 10-0 run – a three by Stu Douglass, five points by Trey Burke, and a Hardaway jumper – to take a 37-31 halftime lead.

Throughout the second half, Michigan kept the lead at a comfortable margin, refusing to let the Tigers close the gap. The closest Memphis got was nine but Michigan answered every time it seemed as if Memphis was poised for a run.

Michigan got a three-pointer off the bench from Eso Akunne, his only points of the night, and another big three by Evan Smotrycz at just the right times. Smotrycz didn’t get much done on the offensive end, but led all players in rebounds with eight.

Burke handled Memphis’ athletic guards like a seasoned veteran, matching a career high with 14 points. He also contributed four assists and came up with a key blocked shot to end the first half and give Michigan a healthy dose of momentum heading into the break.

Michigan didn’t get a lot of scoring on the inside, but Jordan Morgan and Jon Horford did a great job of making the most of the opportunities they got. When Hardaway and Burke found them open, they converted every time.

Michigan did a good job of hitting free throws after struggling from the line in the first three games. Hardaway hit 9-of-10, the only miss coming on his first attempt. Burke hit just 2-of-6.

Duke won the day’s second game to set up a rematch of the NCAA Tournament second round matchup back in March. In that one, Michigan nearly pulled off the upset, falling 73-71 when Darius Morris’ runner hit the back iron at the buzzer.

Jordan Morgan jams home two of his 11 points (AP photo)

Michigan got its first real test of the season on Thursday night, and while it wasn’t against championship-caliber competition, it provided a good learning opportunity heading into the EA Sports Maui Invitational.

Michigan beat Western Illinois 59-55 in Crisler Arena behind 16 points from Tim Hardaway Jr. and 14 points from freshman point guard Trey Burke.

Hardaway got the scoring started with a put-back, but WIU took the lead on a three-pointer by Ceola Clark III. The Leathernecks held onto the lead for the next six minutes until Burke hit a three to put Michigan ahead 12-10. The three sparked an 11-0 run by the Wolverines over the span of the next three minutes, which also included threes by Stu Douglass and Matt Vogrich.

The team went back and forth the rest of the half, going into the locker room tied at 28.

In the second half, WIU took the early lead, but Michigan answered with a 11-2 run. The next 10 minutes were fairly even but Michigan jumped out to a nine-point lead, its largest of the game, when Hardaway hit a three with just over five minutes remaining.

Western came back with two straight baskets to pull within five, but Michigan was able to connect on 4-of-6 free throws down the stretch to seal the victory.

It wasn’t pretty, but it gave Michigan its first taste this season of a close game prior to facing off with the 10th-ranked Memphis Tigers on Monday. Head Coach John Beilein used a short rotation with just three players off the bench and three starters (Novak, Burke, and Hardaway) each playing over 35 minutes.

Jordan Morgan also scored in double figures, adding 11 points while leading Michigan with five rebounds. The leading scorer in Monday’s game, Evan Smotrycz, was held to just three points on 1-of-8 shooting.

Michigan was outrebounded 27-22 and outshot 49 percent to 45, but took care of the basketball, turning it over just 10 times compared to WIU’s 20. As a result, Michigan outscored the Leathernecks 24-5 off turnovers.

Michigan returns to action on Monday in the Maui Invitational. The Wolverines face #10 Memphis (1-0) at 3pm Eastern time on ESPN2.

Early November is always the weirdest time of the year sports-wise as baseball comes to an end, football is in full-swing, and basketball is just beginning. Every year, it’s hard to switch gears and think about basketball when Michigan football is in the thick of the Big Ten title hunt, but this year feels different. There’s a lot of excitement swirling around the Michigan basketball program right now, and for good measure.

Tim Hardaway Jr leads Michigan into battle this season (photo by the Ann Arbor News)

Last year’s team fell just two points short of an upset of Duke and a berth in the Sweet 16. Everybody except point guard Darius Morris returns and this year’s team features a highly-touted freshman point guard to replace him, along with a veteran unit. Add to all of that last week’s commitment from the nation’s second-rated player in the class of 2012, and coach John Beilein is building himself quite the program in Ann Arbor.

The 2009 season was supposed to be a big one for the Wolverines and I optimistically predicted 21-9. But Michigan stumbled to a 15-17 record, missing the NCAA tournament. Last year, Michigan had to replace Manny Harris and prospects looked bleak, at least as far as I was concerned. I took the pessimistic approach, predicting 15-16, but the Maize and Blue proved me wrong, turning a 1-6 conference start into a 9-9 Big Ten finish and a near-Sweet 16 run.

With everybody but Morris returning, Michigan figures to be right in the thick of a powerful Big Ten race. The Wolverines enter the season ranked 18th in the Preseason AP poll and predicted to finish in the top three or four in the conference. Let’s take a look at the team, the schedule, and the outlook.

________________________________________________________________________________________

The Team:

There’s no question that the offense will revolve around Tim Hardaway Jr. The sophomore from Miami, Fla. – and yes, if you didn’t follow Michigan basketball last season, he’s the son of the NBA great – is the leading returning scorer, averaging 13.9 points per game last season (Morris led the team with 15). He started every game, was Michigan’s second-best free throw shooter, shot 37 percent from 3-point land, and led the Wolverines in scoring in Big Ten play, averaging 14.9 points per game.

In the offseason, Hardaway played for Team USA at the 2011 FIBA U19 World Championships. While he didn’t start, he averaged 9.4 points, 2.1 rebounds, and 1.8 assists per game, and sharpened his game against the world’s best at his age.

While Hardaway is Michigan’s best player, the unquestioned leader of the team is senior guard Zack Novak. The 6’4″ 210-pound lefty from Chesterton, Ind. has started 88 of 100 career games and ranks fifth in Michigan history in three-pointers made and attempted. Last season, Novak averaged 8.9 points per game and led Michigan in rebounding with 5.8 rebounds per game.

Defense is what will earn playing time for freshman point guard Trey Burke (photo by the Ann Arbor News)

He’s been a model of consistency and hard work since arriving in Beilein’s first full recruiting class. He’s always the first to chase down a loose ball, to dive head first, to scrap for every rebound, and to take on the opponent’s best guard.

His classmate Stu Douglass is a 6’3″ 200-pound sharp-shooter, also from Indiana. While he mostly lost his starting spot last year (12 starts after starting 23 games in each of his freshman and sophomore seasons), he served as Michigan’s captain, averaged 7.1 points and three rebounds per game, while playing 30 minutes a game. He’ll play a key role for the Wolverines this season in both leadership and outside shooting. He’ll likely share the point guard responsibilities with freshman Trey Burke.

Speaking of Burke, he’ll fill the void Morris left as Michigan’s ball-handler. He’s a confident, 5’11″ 180-pound point guard from Columbus, Ohio. He played with Ohio State star Jared Sullinger, and for Sullinger’s dad, at Northland High School, leading the Vikings to a state runner-up finish last season. He was named the Associated Press Ohio Mr. Basketball and was a Parade Magazine All-America second-team selection.

Another backcourt contributor is junior Matt Vogrich. He played in all but one game last season, averaging 3.2 points per game, while shooting 39 percent from three-point range. In Michigan’s opening round NCAA Tournament win over Tennessee, Vogrich hit 5-of-5 shots from the field, scoring 11 points in 16 minutes. Though not a starter, he’ll continue to give Michigan a spark off the bench with his shooting prowess.

In the frontcourt, Evan Smotrycz is a bit of a ‘tweener and figures to play a key role for the Wolverines this season He’s 6’9″ and 235 pounds, and averaged 6.3 points and 2.3 rebounds per game last season as a freshman. In Michigan’s ACC/Big Ten Challenge win over Clemson last season, Smotrycz led the Wolverines with 18 points on 6-of-7 shooting.

What he did best was stretch the floor for Michigan’s post players. He was a tough matchup, with athleticism to go to the basket, but 38 percent accuracy from three-point range. His weakness, however, was on the defensive side of the ball. That will need to improve this season.

Jordan Morgan is the main man on the post. The 6’8″ redshirt sophomore is up to 250 pounds, 10 heavier than he was a year ago. It should help him with defending some of the Big Ten’s big men in the grueling conference play. Last year, he was the team’s most improved player, averaging 9.2 points and 5.4 rebounds per contest. His best game was a 27-point performance against Northwestern, and he led the Big Ten in field goal percentage. Along with Novak and Hardaway, he started all 35 games.

The Newcomers
Trey Burke	Carlton Brundidge	Max Bielfeldt	Sai Tummala
3	2	34	24
G	G	F	F
6’1″	6’2″	6’8″	6’7″
175 lbs.	200 lbs.	240 lbs.	200 lbs.
Columbus, Ohio	Southfield, Mich.	Peoria, Ill.	Phoenix, Ariz.
Northland H.S.	Southfield H.S.	Notre Dame Prep	Brophy College Prep

Helping him out down low is sophomore Jon Horford. He averaged just two points and two rebounds a game last season, but has beefed up from 220 to 250 pounds since then, which like Morgan, will help him in the rough and rugged Big Ten. He played in 29 of the 35 games a year ago, averaging just under seven minutes per game, but should see his role vastly increase this season. In Michigan’s exhibition win over Wayne State last Friday, he was one of just four Wolverines to score, netting six points in 17 minutes of action, although he missed all five free throws attempted.

Blake McLimans struggled with his shot last year, hitting just 1-of-19 three-point attempts. The 6’10″ junior forward from Hamburg, N.Y. played five minutes a game and was supposed to be a big man that could shoot. Unfortunately, they didn’t fall. How much his stroke has improved this season could determine how much his role increases.

One candidate to take some of his minutes is freshman Max Bielfeldt. A bit undersized at 6’7″ and 240 pounds, the freshman from Peoria, Ill. is a bruiser. He averaged 20 points and 11.2 rebounds a game in his career at Notre Dame Prep and was named to the AP Class 3A All-State first team.

Colton Christian is an interesting big man for the Wolverines. As a freshman last year, he played in 27 of the 35 games, averaging just under five minutes a game, but scored just four points. His specialty was rebounding and was often brought in just for that purpose. If he can improve his offensive production, he will likely see his role increase.

Another freshman and candidate for a bit of playing time here and there is Carlton Brundidge. A 6’1″ 190-pound guard from Southfield, Mich., Brundidge figures to add a slasher to Michigan’s backcourt. He averaged 20.9 points, 6.6 rebounds, and 4.8 assists at Southfield High School and was named to the AP Class A All-State first team last season. How much he will see the court this season is up in the air – he played just two minutes last Friday – but he should be a solid contributor as his career progresses.

________________________________________________________________________________________

The Schedule:

Michigan begins with three cakewalks to shake off the rust that was evident in last week’s exhibition. Ferris State was the Great Lakes Intercollegiate Athletic Conference regular season champion a year ago, but that’s Div. II. Towson and Western Illinois combined to go 11-49.

After those three, things get interesting. On Nov. 21, Michigan travels to Hawaii to participate in the EA Sports Maui Invitational. The first game is against #9 Memphis, which went 25-9 last season. Depending on the result, the next game would pit Michigan against one of the two teams it faced in last springs NCAA Tournament – Duke or Tennessee. Duke is ranked 6th in the preseason polls, while Tennessee looks to have dropped off considerably from the Bruce Pearl years.

The third game of the Maui could be anywhere from Kansas or UCLA (ranked 13th and 17th nationally, respectively) to Chaminade, depending on how Michigan fares in the first two.

After returning back to the mainland, Michigan has to travel to Charlottesville, Va. to battle the Virginia Cavaliers in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge. Virginia was 16-15 a year ago, but returns nearly everybody and is picked to finish in the top third of the ACC.

Following that gauntlet, Michigan gets a bit of a breather before beginning Big Ten play, with four of the remaining five out-of-conference games at home, and the fifth – against Oakland – at the Palace at Auburn Hills. Oakland and Iowa State won’t be pushovers, but are should-wins. Arkansas Pine-Bluff, Alabama A&M, and Bradley should help improve Michigan’s record.

Big Ten play begins with two home games, against Penn State and Minnesota, then a road trip to Indiana before returning home for the first big test against #14 Wisconsin.

After doing battle with Northwestern and Iowa, Michigan returns home on Jan. 17 to face Michigan State, which it swept last season, and then travels out of conference to face Arkansas. The Razorbacks finished 18-13 a year ago, but have a lot of holes to fill this season.

Michigan returns to Big Ten play for what should be the key stretch of the conference slate. A home battle with Indiana is sandwiched between road trips to Purdue, #3 Ohio State, Michigan State, and Nebraska. How Michigan fares during that five-game stretch could determine its post-season fate, but it doesn’t get any easier from there. Illinois comes to town and then the Buckeyes come calling.

At this point, Michigan will either be jockeying for a Big Ten title or fighting for its life on the NCAA Tournament bubble. The last four games should help, as Michigan visits Northwestern, returns home for Purdue, and then travels to Illinois and Penn State to close the season.

________________________________________________________________________________________

The Outlook:

While not the toughest schedule in the nation, it’s certainly not an easy one either. The Big Ten is never an easy conference to play in, and with the Maui Invitational, the ACC/Big Ten Challenge, and the mid-conference trip to Fayetteville, Michigan hasn’t done itself any favors with the schedule. If the Wolverines take care of business, that will be an advantage come tournament time. If not, it could come back to bite them.

Even with a pair of experienced seniors – Novak and Douglass – Michigan is still a fairly young team. That shouldn’t make much of a difference, however, since the experience Michigan has fits together nicely. Hardaway shouldn’t have much trouble getting his points and assuming the playmaker role he took on during Big Ten play last year.

Morgan and Horford down low should be more of a presence than a year ago, which should help open up Novak, Douglass, and Vogrich from the outside.

It really falls on the shoulders of freshman point guard Burke. He will undoubtedly struggle at times, but how he goes should go Michigan. If he’s able to take care of the ball, distribute effectively, and play solid defense, all of which he is certainly capable of, Michigan should be a Big Ten title contendor. But that’s a lot to ask of a true freshman.

Michigan will need Novak and Douglass’ shots to fall and one of the two big men to become consistent offensive weapons.

The Wolverines should hold serve at home with a revamped and reenergized Maize Rage student section, as well as an updated Crisler Arena, so don’t expect many home losses.

Look for a 10-3 non-conference record with a loss in the Maui, a loss to Virginia, and a surprising let-down loss to either Oakland or Arkansas. I also predict a 12-6 Big Ten record with splits against Ohio State, Michigan State, Indiana, and Purdue, a loss to Wisconsin, and one upset at the hands of Northwestern, Iowa, or Minnesota.

That would put Michigan’s final regular season record at 22-9 (12-6) and near the top of the Big Ten, but squarely in the NCAA Tournament with a couple of wins in the Big Ten Tournament. As always, the disclaimer applies that I hope I’m wrong and the Wolverines do much better, but with Morris still at the helm, I would be a lot more confident.

As the body language of Tim Hardaway, Jr. reflects, this season was defined by over-achievement and heartache, but THJr. and the young Wolverines will be a force to be reckoned with next season

In a season that began with very low expectations, the 2010-11 Michigan basketball team turned in perhaps the program’s best season in over a decade and set the stage for what should be enormous expectations in 2011-12.

Picked by most to finish at or near the bottom of the Big Ten, Michigan fought to a fourth place finish, earned an eight-seed in the NCAA Tournament, and took first-seeded Duke to the wire in the third round. It was a season defined by over-achievement and missed opportunities.

When last season’s stars, Manny Harris and DeShawn Sims, bolted for the NBA and graduation, many wondered how Michigan would compete. Instead, rising stars emerged in sophomore Darius Morris and freshman Tim Hardaway, while the veterans, Zack Novak and Stu Douglass remained dependable.

The youngest team in the Big Ten, and tenth youngest in Div. 1A, paved the way for future success with solid team play and feisty defense. After starting the season 11-3, Michigan went on a six-game slide to fall to 1-6 in the Big Ten. It looked as if even an NIT bid was wishful thinking at that point. But the resilient Wolverines, with not a single senior on the team, went 8-3 the rest of the way, sweeping rival Michigan State for the first time since 1997, earning a fourth place finish in the conference and a four-seed in the Big Ten Tournament.

Still needing a win or two to cement an invitation to the Big Dance, Michigan came from behind to beat Illinois in the Big Ten Tourney opener and then fell to Ohio State in the semifinals. It was enough to earn an eight seed and a matchup with Tennessee.

In that first game, Michigan played perhaps its best game of the season, throttling the Volunteers by 30, the most lopsided win in the history of the 8/9 seed matchup, and setting up a showdown with first-seeded Duke.

Against Duke, Michigan fell behind early in the second half and fought back, erasing a 12 point deficit with just over six minutes to play, but Morris missed an eight-foot runner at the buzzer. It ended Michigan’s season two points shy of the Sweet 16.

After over 10 years without an NCAA Tournament berth, John Beilein has guided Michigan to first round wins in two of the past three seasons. Both years, Michigan proved that while overmatched, it could compete with the big boys, and that was certainly the story of the season.

Michigan lost to then-No. 9 Syracuse by three, No. 3 Kansas in overtime, No. 1 Ohio State by four, nine, and seven, No. 12 Wisconsin by one on a buzzer-beater, and No. 3 Duke by two. While close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades, it bodes well for next season, as Michigan returns everyone and will likely be one of the preseason favorites in a Big Ten that was very senior-heavy this season. Experience and leadership usual make the difference in close games, and Michigan will have that in 2011-12.

Incoming freshmen Trey Burke and Carlton Brundidge, both top 100 guards, should help provide more scoring and athleticism on the perimeter and the young big men, Jordan Morgan, Jon Horford, and Blake McLimans, will continue to develop.

It’s been a long time since we could say a Michigan team (football or basketball) has actually overachieved, but even in the face of disappointment from a loss to Duke, it feels good to be looking forward to next season with great anticipation.

A wish list for next season:

Jordan Morgan realizes he is, in fact, allowed to rebound and go up strong with the ball. He made great strides throughout the season and was most dangerous in transition, but played much smaller than he actually is. Way too many times, he got the ball on the post and brought it down with a dribble instead of taking it up strong. He has a good baby hook, but at times, he was too reliant on it. And way too many times, he failed to block out and rebound, especially on the offensive glass. Another offseason should help.

Evan Smotrycz improves his defense. I’m not hating on Smotz, since he was a true freshman after all. He showed some flashes of offense and shooting stroke, making him hard to guard for an opposing big man, but was often a liability on defense. It was especially apparent against Duke when he would jump out to close out, but remain so vertical that he either fouled or was beaten off the dribble. Like Morgan, offseason work, and just more experience in college ball, will help.

Darius Morris develops a shooting stroke. Morris was probably Michigan’s best player this season, leading the Big Ten in assists, and leading the team in scoring with 15 points per game. He’s at his best when driving through the lane, either for a runner or kicking it out to a shooter. However, every time he got an open look from the outside, Michigan fans cringed. He shot just 25 percent (16-of-64) from long range. In this offense, he’s not going to be called upon to shoot from the outside very often, but when he does get the occasional open look, I’d like him to at least be able to hit one of three.

Stu Douglass re-learns how to make free throws. Over the past three seasons, Douglass has hit his share of big threes. He shot 36 percent this season, but he consistently struggled with the easiest shot in basketball. He didn’t get there often, but made just three of 13 on the season and the misses always seemed to be at critical times. He missed the front end of a one-and-one against Duke that could have made the difference in the two-point loss. The strange thing is he wasn’t always this bad. In his first two seasons, he hit 40-of-55 (73 percent). Here’s to regaining that stroke next season.

Michigan basketball survived the non-conference schedule in style, compiling a 10-2 record, and nearing serious “bubble” talk. But beginning with Tuesday’s Big Ten opener against No. 12 Purdue, the next two months will show whether this team is truly a contender to exceed expectations or just a pretender with the  benefit of a weak non-conference slate.

Darius Morris is eighth in the Big Ten in scoring and first in assists (Photo by MGoBlue.com)

I’ll admit that I wasn’t a believer in my season preview when I pegged this year’s squad as an 8-5 non-conference team. Well, with still one non-conference game yet to play, against No. 3 Kansas on Jan. 9, the worst the team could be is 10-3.

This is clearly a better team than anticipated given the departures of last year’s stars, Manny Harris and DeShawn Sims. It’s hard to imagine a team being better after losing those two guys, but in some ways, it is a better overall team. Every player on the court is capable of scoring and it doesn’t have to rely on one or two guys to take all the shots or make the big plays.

The two most experienced returning players, Stu Douglass and Zack Novak, have provided the stability the team needs, while sophomore point guard Darius Morris has exploded as the team’s best player. Morris has averaged 15.8 points and 7.5 assists per game and recorded his fourth double-double of the season in Michigan’s win over Bryant on Saturday, earning Big Ten Player of the Week honors.

Sophomore center Jordan Morgan has given Michigan a much-needed inside presence, tied with Ohio State’s Jared Sullinger for the Big Ten lead in offensive rebounds per game, and possessing the strength and agility to defend opposing big men underneath.

Tim Hardaway, Jr. has been a pleasant surprise in his freshman season, averaging 11.8 points per game and giving Michigan a consistent second scoring threat. He has scored double digits in seven of 12 games, including each of the last four, being named last week’s Big Ten co-Freshman of the Week.

Evan Smotrycz and Matt Vogrich have been solid as well, shooting a combined 36 percent from three-point range and averaging a combined 11 points.

The biggest knock on the Wolverines so far this season, and the reason Michigan isn’t ranked despite a 10-2 record, despite a record as good as or better than eight of the teams in the AP Top 25, is the lack of ranked opponents Michigan has played. Only undefeated Syracuse (then No. 9) was ranked when Michigan played them, and Michigan hung tough, losing by just three. It’s Syracuse’s closest win of the season so far.

Unfortunately, Michigan turned around and lost to UTEP the following day in the consolation game of the Legends Classic. That loss more than anything is what’s keeping Michigan from getting more love. The rest of the teams Michigan has faced have a combined record of 54-68.

Beginning with Tuesday’s game, 11 of Michigan’s 18 remaining games are against ranked opponents, including home and away against No. 2 Ohio State and home against No. 3 Kansas. It will likely need to win at least half of the remaining games to earn an NCAA tournament bid. Tuesday’s game will tell us a lot.