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Posts Tagged ‘Jourdan Lewis’

M&GB staff predictions

Friday, September 23rd, 2016


StaffPicks_banner20152

Michigan opens Big Ten play on Saturday against 2-1 Penn State. The Nittany Lions are three games into a new up-tempo spread offense that has fans in State College excited, but is still in its infancy. They’re also missing their entire linebacking corps.

Joe was the winner of our staff predictions last week with his prediction of Michigan 45 – Colorado 17. He now has the lead in our staff picks challenge. Here are our picks for this week:

Justin
Staff Predictions
Michigan Penn State
Justin 48 20
Derick 38 20
Sam 34 10
Josh 38 13
Joe 42 10
M&GB Average 40 15

This game just has the makings of a big Michigan win. The Wolverines faced adversity for the first time this season last week and showed they can overcome it. Now, with that added confidence, they’ll kick off conference play with a convincing win.

Like Michigan’s previous opponents, Penn State will load the box to stop the run and force Wilton Speight to beat them. But the Nittany Lions won’t be able to get consistent pressure on Speight and he’ll approach 300 yards passing. Watch for another big game from Jake Butt, who will capitalize on Penn State’s linebacker inexperience.

On the other side of the ball, Moorhead will try to keep the PSU offense moving quickly, getting the ball out of McSorley’s hands quickly and utilizing his feet. Michigan may give up a few big plays and some points, but it won’t be consistent. McSorley hasn’t faced the type of pressure Michigan will bring and will make a couple of mistakes. Michigan’s defense leads the nation on third down, allowing opponents to convert just 11 percent, while Penn State’s offense ranks 118th, converting just 27.3 percent. That doesn’t spell success with Don Brown bringing the heat.

Michigan 48 – Penn State 20

Derick

I think the up-tempo offensive style of Penn State will give Michigan some issues, but if Jourdan Lewis returns, the secondary will obviously have a huge lift.

On offense, Michigan will have to keep being creative in the running game to open things up for Wilton Speight in the short passing game.

I don’t think Penn State is much better than Colorado, but this might be Michigan’s toughest test to date. With that said, Michigan’s wake up call came last weekend and I expect Jim Harbaugh will have them firing on all cylinders to start Big Ten play.

Michigan will cruise past Penn State, 38-20.

Michigan 38 – Penn State 20

Sam

Michigan cruised through weeks 1 and 2 against clearly inferior competition…then came week 3 against a Colorado team that we also thought would be a mere speed hump (not even a bump!). Alas, as the first quarter was drawing to a close, I was already reasoning with myself that “it’s just a game”.

But the recovery came quickly, and things will hopefully be back on track as Penn State comes to town tomorrow. Wilton Speight is probably not as good as the first two weeks showed, and probably not as bad as last week either.

Will it be enough to win the Big Ten? Only time can tell. But it should be plenty to beat a Penn State team that is going to struggle to find space for Saquon Barkley to run into. Taco Charlton should be back in a big way as Michigan dumps the Nittany Lions.

Michigan 34 – Penn State 10

Josh (1)

Ah, Penn State. What a wonderful team. Wait, no that’s not right. Apparently they have a saying there, “It’s -blank- o’clock and Michigan still sucks.” Yes, Michigan sucks. Clearly they haven’t checked their place in the conference hierarchy lately. Even so, I think they’ll provide yet another stout test for Michigan this week. They have a new spread-y type offense, one of the best running backs in America and a dominating defensive li… What’s that? Carl Nassib and Anthony Zettel graduated? And they’re also missing two of three starting linebackers? Oh well then, disregard any mention of their defense. So maybe the defense isn’t a force to be reckoned with anymore, but their new spread offense might be and Michigan will need to be on their best game if they want to avoid getting caught on too many busted plays again.

I’ll go ahead and say it, Saquon Barkley scares me. He is shifty, he has excellent vision and he is fast. Taking the wrong angle on him could end up with six on the scoreboard. Michigan absolutely has to contain him if they are to win this game. That said, it’s been the passing game that has generated the big plays for Penn State this year (4.67 per game, same as Michigan). Luckily, Michigan is getting Jourdan Lewis back this week so that should do wonders for the defense. And maybe Taco too? Either way, this is a game Michigan should win but will likely be test once again.

On offense – I’d like to see Wilton Speight bounce back from an iffy performance with confidence and make some big plays once again. At this point I’m not sure anyone really respects Michigan’s run game (I don’t blame them) so Penn State will probably be content to let Speight try to beat them with his arm. It would be nice to see the run game get some momentum heading into the Wisconsin match-up but my gut says Penn State is going to stack the box so I’m not so sure this is the week we see our traditional run game get going. Thank God for jet sweeps and guys like Jabrill Peppers, Jehu Chesson and Eddie McDooooooooooom. I’d also like to see the left guard spot get sorted out, as neither Ben Braden nor Ben Bredeson has looked all that good there and it’s beginning to become a concern for me as we head into the meat of the schedule.

On defense – I’d like to see them shore up some of the containment/missed assignment issues that plagued them the last two weeks as well as how they adjust to another spread/no-huddle team. Penn State isn’t exactly a tempo spread team, they are no-huddle but don’t run a ton of plays. In fact, they’re averaging almost 5.5 plays fewer per game than Michigan is right now. Either way, I’d like to see how Michigan continues to adjust to a no-huddle team. How they manage to improve upon this could be the difference between 12-0 and 10-2. Hopefully adding Jourdan Lewis back into the mix is a shot in the arm for both the pass and run defense.

For the record, I’m not too worried about Penn State causing issues here as it seems they line up quickly and look to the sideline for the play-call but it could be an issue anyway. Michigan has done a fairly good job of hiding their coverages/blitzes so far but when a defense is spread out it can become tricky to hide those blitzes as well as before. On that note…

Maybe a new wrinkle, or two, as far as formations or crazy blitzes to keep that spread offense from clicking. Don Brown has hung his hat on not only his aggressiveness but also his ability to stop spread teams, with three games under their belts I think now is the time we need to start seeing some progress on that front. Holding Penn State to under three big run plays and two big pass plays would be HUGE in my opinion. Remember, holding an opponent to under six big plays per game would be on par with a top ten ranking (stats-wise) based on 2015 big play stats. This needs to be the game where Michigan really asserts itself on defense and shuts down all those big plays they’ve been giving up lately.

On special teams – All I want to see is Kenny Allen keep his punts out of the endzone, consistently. That and maybe another block/deflection. I won’t be greedy and ask for another special teams score, OK maybe I will.

Michigan is the better team. They have better players and a far superior coaching staff. Any Penn State fan who thinks Franklin will outcoach Harbaugh (I saw it on twitter) clearly needs their head examined. Penn State will put up a fight, probably not a jump-out-to-an-early-lead like Colorado fight but a fight nonetheless. After getting punched in the mouth last week Michigan should come out focused and ready to roll. Michigan wins going away but the game is much closer than the score.

Michigan 38 – Penn State 13

Joe (2)

This is a game where the lines should dominate early and often and wear the Nittany Lions down over the course of four quarters. While the Penn State quarterback is leading the Big Ten in passing yards (second in passing yards per game) he will not have much time to survey his options. Our defensive front should have a field day and generate tons of pressures and quarterback hits. That will lead to turnovers and points for the Maize and Blue.

If Michigan can keep Saquon Barkley in check most of the time and force them to throw, things will get ugly in the second half. Barkley is the best and only option coming out of Happy Valley.

Wilton Speight should come back strong and have a solid day thru the air. I think Michigan will look to establish the run early and then open things up. Speight goes for 250 and three scores through the air with two of them going to Butt. Michigan wins this one big.

Michigan 42 – Penn State 10

M&GB staff predictions: Hawaii

Friday, September 2nd, 2016


StaffPicks_banner20152

Michigan opens its season against Hawaii tomorrow, which means it’s time for our staff to make our picks. Last season, Sam collected the most weekly wins (five) and Derick won the season-long point spread title, just three points better than Justin. Here are our picks for tomorrow’s game:

Justin
Staff Predictions
Michigan Hawaii
Justin 52 10
Derick 45 7
Sam 48 7
Josh 45 13
Joe 49 3
M&GB Average 48 8

Cal quarterback Davis Webb showed Michigan how to carve apart a porous Hawaii defense, but with Wilton Speight making his first career start, it’s a safe bet to assume he won’t be given the opportunity to chuck it up 54 times. Instead, Jim Harbaugh will look to make a statement on the ground and Michigan fans will get their first chance to see how much the offensive line has improved — although that won’t be truly evident until the Wolverines face a good team.

Last season, Hawaii traveled to Columbus and hung with Ohio State in the first half, trailing just 14-0 at halftime, but the Buckeyes wore them down for a 38-0 route. With a better offense under Rolovich this season, Hawaii would like to at least put some points on the board, but Michigan features one of the nation’s best defenses. I don’t think Michigan gets the shutout here, but I don’t think it’ll be close either.

Michigan scores early and often, Speight looks crisp and make smart decisions, the running back trio of De’Veon Smith, Ty Isaac, and Chris Evans wear down Hawaii’s defense for over 250 yards, and Michigan rolls to an easy victory. The defense allows 10 points just as it did the last time Harbaugh faced Hawaii, as a quarterback in 1986, but the offense scores more than the 27 it did back then.

Michigan 52 – Hawaii 10

Derick

For the first time in almost a decade, Michigan kicks off the football season with championship expectations. The Wolverines are ranked in the preseason top 10 and have enough talent to play with any team in the conference on any given day.

The road begins with a home matchup against Hawaii. The Rainbow Warriors were awful last season and already got waxed by California in their opener last week. Their greatest weakness in 2015 was defending the run, and Michigan will want to force the issue on the ground Saturday, especially if it builds a big lead. If things get ugly, expect to see some of the athletic freshmen Jim Harbaugh is so excited about.

On offense, Hawaii faces the tall task of blocking a Michigan front loaded with NFL talent. Redshirt senior quarterback Ikaika Woolsey took over the starting job this season, so star defensive backs Jourdan Lewis and Delano Hill will be looking to capitalize on any mistakes. Pay attention to how Michigan uses Jabrill Peppers, who moved to linebacker but could move all over the field.

Michigan will probably get ahead early and turn to the ground game to speed up the clock. I see the Wolverines winning big.

Michigan 45 – Hawaii 7

Sam

As Jim Harbaugh recently pointed out, college football is one of the few sports that has no preseason. If we’re being honest with ourselves, however, Michigan will open their Path to the Playoffs with something that should closely mimic an exhibition. All signs point to Wilton Speight leading an offense riddled with playmakers onto the field while captain Chris Wormley will trot out alongside a potentially devastating defense. Tomorrow, we’ll get our long-awaited first look at some touted prospects (looking at you, Rashan), our first taste of Michigan Football in Fall 2016, and our first glimpse of what we all hope is a special year in Harbaugh’s second season home. If the game isn’t decided by halftime, I’d be shocked. I’ll take Michigan.

Michigan 48 – Hawaii 7

Josh

Hawaii is not a very good team overall, but they did manage to put up a total of 12 big plays (8 run and 4 pass) on Cal last week. No, Cal does not have the best defense but the potential is there. So I went back and watched the game and about half of those big runs and all of the big pass plays aren’t ones that would have gone very far against Michigan.

Running back Diocemy Saint Juste’s 54-yard touchdown was aided by not one but two defensive linemen having him dead to rights and missing tackles behind the line and several linebackers and defensive backs taking bad angles and just plain whiffing. Michigan would have had Saint Juste for a loss. That said, breakdowns happen and Michigan hasn’t had any actual live fire, if you will, with their new defense. I think Hawaii will bust a few big runs that will lead to a score or two.

Michigan will win this handily, that is not in doubt, but I’m interested in seeing a few things as the ‘kinks’ are worked out with a new quarterback and a new defensive scheme.

When Michigan has the ball: What is their run/pass balance? I think we’ll see more runs than pass attempts (since there are several running backs that could be contributors this year) but I don’t expect anything exotic. Harbaugh will keep things close to the vest, as he does, and much like last year he’ll roll out new wrinkles every week. What is Wilton Speight’s (assuming internet rumors are true) command of the offense? I was never in the ‘O’Korn as the heir apparent’ camp. I think Speight’s floor is much higher and Harbaugh was going to sacrifice upside for a steady hand at quarterback given the defense they have. I think Speight will look better than most expect — not late season Rudock but definitely better than early to mid-season Rudock. I think we’ll see something we can all get behind and say “this guy can lead us to a Big Ten title” but not a “holy cow this guy is gonna break all the passing records.” And I’m fine with that.

When Hawaii has the ball, I don’t expect a ton of blitzes. Some, yes, but not a lot. Again, Harbaugh is gonna keep things close to the vest. I mean, this is the guy who refused to give Hawaii some scrimmage tape before the game, so why would he tip his hand to future opponents? I am very interested in seeing how Rashan Gary plays, as we all are, but more importantly I want to see how much havoc the defensive line as a whole creates. If they can be who we think they can be then the linebacker depth/experience does not become an issue later on. Yes, caveats apply here as Hawaii is not very good but if Michigan is not completely dominant then I might have some concerns.

On the back end I’d like to see a pick or two. Ikaiaka Woolsey is not an accurate passer (50 percent) and if he’s being pressured I think we’ll see a few errant throws. Michigan needs to take advantage of these opportunities this year. Remember, only SIX teams forced fewer turnovers than Michigan did in 2015. If they want to compete for a playoff spot that has to change, and taking advantage of opportunities to pick off some passes is where it will likely come.

Harbaugh is not opposed to playing his starters deep into games nor is he afraid to run up the score (ask Pete Carroll or Rutgers) but I think we’ll see plenty of the back-ups in the fourth quarter of this one.

Michigan 45 – Hawaii 13

Joe

It’s really here.  I can’t believe we start the season in less than 24 hours. The build-up has been like nothing I’ve ever seen as a Michigan fan and I hope it lives up to the hype.  I think this one goes Michigan’s way from the first play and is lead by a stout defensive line. They will get after a tired Hawaii team from the very start.  We will see a constant rotation of bigger, stronger, and faster Wolverines against an inferior Hawaii squad.

Coach Brown will attack initially and try and set the tone to build on. I think we will see a lot of pressure from the linebacking corps as well as the defensive line. This will lead to several turnovers and give the good guys great field position.

As far as the offense goes, I think Speight will get the nod and lead the Wolverines to several first quarter touchdowns. Michigan will establish the running game and wear down the Rainbows with an elite offensive line. This one gets ugly early and fun to watch late as the Wolverines win big.

Michigan 49 – Hawaii 3

Predicting Michigan 2016: The special teams

Friday, September 2nd, 2016


Predicting Michgian 2016-SpecialTeams

Kenny Allen(Duane Burleson, AP)

Previous: Quarterbacks, Running Backs, Wide Receivers, Tight Ends, Offensive Line, Defensive Line, Linebackers, Secondary

Michigan’s special teams units was a bit of a train wreck during the tenures of Rich Rodriguez and Brady Hoke, but Jim Harbaugh helped shore things up in his first season.

Well, mostly.

Michigan did have some special teams blunders – none as infamous as the botched punt against Michigan State. But, in general, Michigan was solid in the kicking and return games.

Most of the major special teams contributors return, with the exception of Blake O’Neill at punter. Here’s how Michigan should stack up on each unit.

Field goal kicking:

Michigan’s starting field goal kicking job was a bit of a mystery heading into 2015, but former walk-on Kenny Allen stepped up and took control of the job. Allen converted 18 of 22 chances as a redshirt junior – including 15 of 16 successful attempts from fewer than 40 yards. Allen was perfect on extra points, converting all 46 attempts.

Allen was steady enough last season to assume he’ll take the field Saturday as the starting field goal kicker. But if he struggles, Michigan recruited a capable backup who should provide some insurance.

Quinn Nordin committed to Harbaugh after a recruiting slumber party and a decommitment from Penn State. He was the No. 1 ranked kicker in his class and projects as an accurate field goal kicker. Nordin’s career long field goal came from 51 yards out in high school.

Allen has proven himself as a reliable kicker, so Nordin would probably have to be phenomenal to steal that job from him preseason.

Career Stats – Allen
Year FG Made FG Att FG% Long PATs
2013 0 0 0 0 0
2014 0 0 0 0 0
2015 18 22 81.8 47 46-46 (100%)
Totals 18 22 81.8 47 46-46 (100%)
Kickoffs:

Allen was also very solid on kickoffs last season, averaging 61.4 yards over 78 kicks. He recorded 34 touchbacks.
In his senior year of high school, 19 of Nordin’s 23 kickoffs went for touchbacks. He has a bigger leg than Allen, but, as I said with the field goal kicking, will have to outshine Allen enough to take the job away from a steady starter.

Career Stats – Allen
Year Kickoffs Yards Avg Touchbacks
2013 0 0 0 0
2014 0 0 0 0
2015 78 4,791 61.4 34
Totals 78 4,791 61.4 34
Punting:

With O’Neill out of eligibility and Michigan looking for a new starting punter, Harbaugh has a few legitimate options he could turn to.

Allen has punted twice in his college career: A 51-yard boot in 2013 and a 57-yard blast for a touchback in the 2016 Citrus Bowl. Allen has a big enough leg to handle punting duties, but Harbaugh might want to split things up with Allen already likely handling the majority of the kicking.

Nordin averaged 52.9 yards per punt as a high school senior, with seven of his 10 attempts going for at least 50 yards. Six of his punts were downed inside the 20-yard line and he notched a career-long of 67 yards.

Nordin can handle punting, but would Harbaugh hand such an important job to a true freshman after punting burned the Wolverines last season? We can only guess. Nordin will be anxious to have a starting job with last year’s starter gone, but it’s possible Allen will take all three starting spots.

The other kickers and punters on the roster are James Foug, Ryan Tice, and Will Hart.

Career Stats – Allen
Year Punts Yards Average Long TB FC In-20 Blk
2013 1 51 51.0 51 0 1 0 0
2014 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2015 1 57 57.0 57 1 0 0 0
Totals 2 108 54.0 57 1 1 0 0
Returning:

For the first time since Steve Breaston wore the Maize and Blue, Michigan posed legitimate home run threats in both the kick and punt return games last season. And the Wolverines return all five players who returned a pick or kick last season.

Jabrill Peppers leads the way on punt returns, averaging 11.4 yards per punt return in 17 attempts last season. He’s clearly the most athletic player on the team, so his big play potential is through the roof. Peppers only returned eight kicks last season, but averaged nearly 30 yards per return. He’ll be a weapon in both return games again in 2016.

Career Stats – Peppers
Year Ret Yards Yds/Ret Long TD
2014 1 6 6.0 0 0
2015 17 194 11.4 41 0
Totals 18 200 11.1 41 0

Jourdan Lewis was nearly as good as Peppers returning kicks, averaging 25.2 yards over 15 returns. Lewis is fast and can change direction quickly, but he doesn’t have the vision of Peppers, who refined his skills as a return specialist in high school. The All-American cornerback will likely be among the team’s primary kick returners to start the season.

Career Stats – Lewis
Year Ret Yards Yds/Ret Long TD
2013 1 18 18.0 18 0
2014 1 6 6.0 6 0
2015 15 378 25.2 55 0
Totals 17 402 23.6 55 0

Star wide receiver and team MVP Jehu Chesson dipped his toes into the kick return pool, returning four kicks for an average of 41.5 yards. Chesson exploded for his first return touchdown during the opening play vs. Northwestern, setting the tone for a blowout Michigan win. Chesson is a versatile offensive weapon, so he’ll likely get his turn on special teams as a redshirt senior.

Career Stats – Chesson
Year Ret Yards Yds/Ret Long TD
2012 0 0 0 0 0
2013 2 36 18.0 19 0
2014 0 0 0 0 0
2015 4 166 41.5 96 1
Totals 6 202 33.7 96 1

Other returners to watch include Dymonte Thomas, Amara Darboh, Chris Evans, Khaleke Hudson, Eddie McDoom, Nate Johnson, Kekoa Crawford, and David Long.

Predicting Michigan 2016: The secondary

Thursday, September 1st, 2016


Predicting Michgian 2016-SecondaryJourdan Lewis

Previous: Quarterbacks, Running Backs, Wide Receivers, Tight Ends, Offensive Line, Defensive Line, Linebackers

We’ll go from one extreme to the next as Michigan’s secondary couldn’t look more different than the linebackers heading into Jim Harbaugh’s second season as head coach.

While no starters returned in the linebacking core, Michigan returns a ton of its top talent in the secondary, including one of the best cornerbacks in the country and four other starters.

Returning starters:

Michigan’s secondary – and likely the entire defense – will be led by All-American cornerback Jourdan Lewis. Lewis returned to Michigan for his senior season after breaking out as one of the nation’s best cover corners in 2015. Lewis defended an incredible 20 passes in 13 games and picked off two passes. He locked down each team’s top receiver and figures to do so again this year, allowing Michigan’s other corners to take lesser assignments. There’s no better cornerback in the nation.

Safety Dymonte Thomas is a popular pick to break out this season (Mark Lomoglio, Icon Sportswire)

Safety Dymonte Thomas is a popular pick to break out this season (Mark Lomoglio, Icon Sportswire)

Beside Lewis will be senior cornerbacks Channing Stribling and Jeremy Clark. Stribling enjoyed his best season in 2015, breaking up three passes and grabbing two interceptions in 11 games. Stribling is a solid tackler and made strides in coverage last season. He should be the team’s second best player in coverage this year.

Clark had his ups and downs in 2015. While he finished the year with three passes defended and three interceptions, he left some opportunities out to dry and got burned a few times downfield. Clark will likely start the season as the team’s No. 3 cornerback, but he puts himself in more positions to force turnovers than Stribling. His high-risk, high-reward style will reap its rewards.

At safety, Michigan returns two strong veterans who enter their final season as Wolverines. Thanks to Brady Hoke’s decision not to use redshirts, Dymonte Thomas and Delano Hill are in their last year at Michigan.

Hill was excellent in 2015, starting eight games at safety and hitting his stride late in the Big Ten season. Hill broke out in a big way at Indiana, when he recorded 10 tackles and broke up Indiana’s attempt to tie the game at the goal line in overtime. Hill’s greatest attribute is his support in stopping the running game. He gets good reads and isn’t afraid to go up to the line to make stops.

His partner in crime, Thomas, is more of a pass defender. Thomas didn’t have any tackles for loss in his first three seasons, but he did break up seven passes in 2015. He’s a luxury for Michigan downfield, as he can provide help for Stribling and Clark over the top. The safety tandem complements each other in the run and pass game and Michigan will be in good hands in the secondary.

Career Stats – Lewis
Games Played Solo Assisted Total Tackles Sacks TFL FF PDef INT
38 79 29 108 1.0 5.0 1 28 4
Career Stats – Stribling
Games Played Solo Assisted Total Tackles Sacks TFL FF PDef INT
34 34 6 40 0.0 1.0 1 3 2
Career Stats – Clark
Games Played Solo Assisted Total Tackles Sacks TFL FF PDef INT
32 25 14 39 0.0 0.0 0 4 3
Career Stats – Thomas
Games Played Solo Assisted Total Tackles Sacks TFL FF PDef INT
34 41 17 58 0.0 0.0 1 7 0
Career Stats – Hill
Games Played Solo Assisted Total Tackles Sacks TFL FF PDef INT
33 47 20 67 0.0 2.5 1 2 0
Potential contributors:

Michigan has two redshirt freshmen who have a chance to contribute for the first time in 2016 after patrolling the sidelines last season. The first is Tyree Kinnel, a supremely talented safety out of Huber Heights, Ohio. Kinnel is another safety who provides great support in the running game. He’s a reliable tackler and athletic enough to make stops in space.

Keith Washington will be a player to watch at cornerback after committing to Michigan out of Prattville, Alabama. He might be the fastest player on the team, but his coverage skills will dictate whether or not he sees the field in 2016.

Career Stats – Kinnel
Games Played Solo Assisted Total Tackles Sacks TFL FF PDef INT
N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Career Stats – Washington
Games Played Solo Assisted Total Tackles Sacks TFL FF PDef INT
N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
New faces:

Cornerback isn’t a friendly position for true freshmen on contending teams, but Michigan did welcome some very good recruits to Ann Arbor. David Long projects as an elite cover corner and could probably contribute this season in a backup role or as an injury replacement. Long has all the tools to match up man-to-man with receivers: speed, quickness and very good anticipation. If he can learn the college game quickly, he’ll be an impact corner in the future.

Lavert Hill came to Michigan with even more buzz than Long, thanks to dominance at Detroit King High School and the long recruiting battle between Michigan and MSU. Hill is another very good coverage corner who can stick with receivers and break up passes. Unlike his brother (Delano Hill), he’s much more of a pass defender than a run stopper and his tackling will need some work at the college level.

Josh Metellus committed to Michigan with his teammates Devin Bush and Devin Gil, out of Charles W. Flanagan High School in Florida. Metellus is a solid safety who can step up and help stop opposing running games, but he probably isn’t ready for a major role in 2016.

The final commit in this group is Khaleke Hudson, who is listed at safety but could probably play anywhere on the defense short of defensive tackle. Hudson is an elite athlete who might be the closest thing the defense has to Jabrill Peppers’ versatility. Hudson will see the field this season because he is physically ready to play at the college level, but it’s hard to predict what role he’ll play. Since the team is deep in the secondary, he might see spot snaps as a linebacker or on offense. Either way, he’ll be a fun guy to watch.

Michigan also got a preferred walk-on commitment from three-star safety Tru Wilson, who turned down several scholarship offers to become a Wolverine. Wilson shouldn’t see any time as a true freshman, but he could work his way into the rotation down the road.

Finally, Tyler Cochran joined Michigan as a preferred walk-on safety from West Bloomfield, Michigan.

Meet the rest:

Louis Grodman: DB, sophomore, 5-11, 183, from Commerce, Mich. (Walled Lake Northern)
No career stats
Taylor Krupp: DB, sophomore, 6-1, 186, from New Lothrop, Mich. (New Lothrop)
No career stats
Brandon Watson: CB, junior, 5-11, 203, from Wilmington, Del. (Eastern Christian Academy)
12 games played, 2 solo tackles, 6 assisted tackles, 8 total tackles
Matt Mitchell: CB, junior, 5-10, 186, from Dexter, Mich. (Dexter)
No career stats
Anthony Dalimonte: S, senior, 5-9, 176, from Bloomfield Hills, Mich. (Brother Rice)
No career stats
Jacob West: S, sophomore, 6-0, 195, from Pinckney, Mich. (Pinckney)
No career stats
Jordan Glasgow: S, sophomore, 6-1, 210, from Aurora, Ill. (Marmion Academy)
No career stats

New in Blue: 2016 CB LaVert Hill

Wednesday, February 3rd, 2016


LaVert Hill(247 Sports)

LaVert Hill – CB | 5-10, 176 | Detroit, Mich – Martin Luther King
ESPN: 4-star, #21 CB Rivals: 4-star, #14 CB 247: 4-star, #6 CB Scout: 4-star, #7 CB
Other top offers: Michigan State, Clemson, Tennessee, USC, UCLA, Ohio State, Georgia, Miami

One of the more dramatic recruiting stories for Michigan’s class has ended in Michigan’s favor with a commitment from Detroit King cornerback LaVert Hill. The younger brother of current Michigan safety Delano Hill chose the Wolverines over Penn State and rival Michigan State.

Hill is a consensus four-star recruit according to the four major recruiting services. 247 Sports ranks him the highest as the sixth-best cornerback in the class and 88th-best overall player in the class. Scout ranks him seventh at his position and 97th overall. Rivals has him 14th and 176th, while ESPN ranks him the lowest as the 21st-best corner in the class and 278th-best overall.

Scout likes his coverage awareness, hands, and instincts, but thinks he needs to improve his size. At 5-foot-10 and 176 pounds he’s the exact same size Jourdan Lewis was listed at on this season’s roster. Lewis, of course, was a first team All-American and semifinalist for the Jim Thorpe and Chuck Bednarik awards. Scout expands on their analysis of Hill.

“Has a natural knack for reading and jumping routes. Good, quick feet and ability to change directions. Technically sound and smooth in his backpedal and transition. Has the closing speed to makeup ground and break on passes. Must add size and strength. Solid wrap-up tackler, but must get stronger to improve in this area.”

Hill joins David Long to give Michigan a pair of highly-rated cornerbacks in addition to Devin Gil and Josh Metellus, who will likely wind up at safety or linebacker. At least one of the committed receivers may wind up in the secondary as well.

Hill is an excellent pickup for Harbaugh, not only for the talent he brings to Ann Arbor but because he’s a head-to-head recruiting win for a Detroit kid against bitter in-state rival Michigan State. During Michigan’s downturn the past few years, the Spartans took hold of most of the state’s best players, but Harbaugh is working to put an end to that with Hill, who is ranked fifth in the state, and offensive tackle Michael Onwenu, the top player in the state.

Hill is the second commitment of the day for Michigan, following receiver Nate Johnson’s commitment earlier this morning. Stay tuned for more commitment news and coverage from Signing of the Stars.

First Look: Ohio State

Monday, November 23rd, 2015


Sad urban

The Game lost a little bit of luster when Ohio State lost to Michigan State on Saturday evening, putting the Spartans solely in possession of their Big Ten East destiny. The winner of the Michigan-Ohio State game will have to hope Penn State pulls off an upset in East Lansing; otherwise, the winner of college football’s greatest rivalry will have only bragging rights and a better bowl placement to take away from it. But bragging rights are always enough in this rivalry. Let’s take a look at how the teams compare.

Ohio State team stats & Michigan comparison
Ohio State | Michigan Rank Defense Rank
Points Per Game 34.4 | 32.2 T36 | 51
14.1 14.9 2 6
Rushing Yards 2,534 1,775 1,471 1,102
Rush Avg. Per Game 230.4 161.4 14 81
133.7 100.2 30 4
Avg. Per Rush 5.5 | 4.2
3.4 3.1
Passing Yards 2,131 2,505 1,807 1,792
Pass Avg. Per Game 193.7 227.7 100 60 164.3 162.9 T5 4
Total Offense 4,665 | 4,280 3,278 2,894
Total Off Avg. Per Game 424.1 389.1 48 72 298.0 263.1 8 2
Kick Return Average 23.4 30.7 32 2 16.2 20.3 5 | 44
Punt Return Average 12.3 11.4 26 32 3.6 11.5 18 98
Avg. Time of Possession 28:52 | 33:19 83 | 10
31:08 | 26:41
3rd Down Conversion Pct 38.0% | 44.0% 81 34
33.0% | 23.0% T23 2
Sacks Allowed-Yards/By-Yards 16-88 | 16-84
T33 | T33
32-181 | 29-224
T14 | T25
Touchdowns Scored 51 44
19 | 17
Field Goals-Attempts 7-12 14-18
8-15 | 15-18
Red Zone Scores (35-44) 80%|(43-46) 93% 93 | 7
(19-25) 76%|(21-25) 84% 23 64
Red Zone Touchdowns (28-44) 64%|(32-46) 70% (15-25) 60%|(8-25) 32%

Ohio State is averaging 2.2 more points per game than Michigan and 35 more total yards per game. However, in Big Ten play, Michigan leads the conference in points per game (34.7) and Ohio State is second at 34.3, though the Buckeyes still have the edge in total yards.

Through the first 10 games of the season, Ohio State’s rushing game was one to fear with Heisman candidate running back Ezekiel Elliott. But he got just 12 carries against Michigan State on Saturday as Ohio State was held to just 86 yards rushing as a team. Quarterback J.T. Barrett got the majority of the carries with 14 for just 44 yards and that drew the ire of Elliott in his postgame comments.

“How we lost, I just feel like we weren’t put in the right opportunity to win this game, we weren’t put in the right situations to win this game,” Elliott said. “I don’t think Michigan State was better than us. They weren’t. We didn’t execute.”

Whether that earns him a punishment or an extra helping of carries this Saturday remains to be seen, but he’s still one of the best backs in the nation and he still ranks second in the Big Ten with an average of 132.5 yards per game. He also leads the conference with 17 rushing touchdowns.

The passing game, on the other hand, has been wildly inconsistent this season. It ranks 100th nationally and 11th in the Big Ten, right in between two of Michigan’s last three opponents: Rutgers and Penn State. Those two managed just 201 combined passing yards against Michigan’s pass defense that ranks fourth nationally. Barrett doesn’t rank among the top 10 quarterbacks in the Big Ten in passing, and Ohio State’s leading receiver, Michael Thomas, ranks 10th in receiving yards per game (59.9).

Defensively, Ohio State is just a hair behind Michigan, ranking 30th nationally against the run and fifth against the pass. The Buckeyes do allow less than a point fewer per game, but that’s negligible. Two main differences between Ohio State and Michigan’s defenses are third down conversion and red zone defense. Ohio State ranks a respectable 23rd nationally, allowing opponents to convert third downs 33 percent of the time compared to Michigan’s 23 percent, which is second nationally. In the red zone, Michigan has done a much better job of forcing opponents to kick field goals. Both teams have allowed 25 opponent trips to the red zone. Ohio State has given up 15 touchdowns, while Michigan has allowed just eight.

Both teams are pretty good on special teams with dynamic return men. Michigan ranks second nationally in kick returns with the trio of Jourdan Lewis, Jabrill Peppers, and Jehu Chesson, all of which is a threat to take it all the way. Ohio State’s Dontre Wilson and Curtis Samuel rank 32nd in that regard. But Jalen Marshall’s 12.8-yard punt return average has the Bucks slightly ahead of Michigan in that category.

So what can we expect on Saturday? It’s too early for a prediction, but it’s a much more even matchup than any of us thought it would be entering the season. The status of Elliott and the psyche of a team that just suffered its first loss in 24 Big Ten games will play a major part in the outcome. Will they bounce back or will they crumble from their first experience of adversity? We’ll find out at high noon on Saturday.

#12 Michigan 28 – Penn State 16: Wolverines take care of business in Happy Valley

Sunday, November 22nd, 2015


Jabrill - DeVenon vs PSU(MGoBlue.com)

With Ohio State looming next Saturday for a potential shot at the Big Ten East division title, Michigan took care of business in Happy Valley with a workman-like 28-16 victory over Penn State.

The defense held Penn State to 207 yards of total offense — most of which came on three big plays — and sacked Christian Hackenberg four times. Jake Rudock continued his ascension with a 25 of 38 for 256 yards and two touchdown performance to lead the Wolverines to victory.

Penn State struck first with a 23-yard Tyler Davis field goal on its first possession of the game, but Michigan answered with a 7-play, 89-yard drive that was capped by a 26-yard touchdown pass from Jake Rudock to Jake Butt. After a Penn State three and out, Michigan made the first mistake of the game when Rudock was intercepted by linebacker Brandon Bell. But Michigan’s defense held strong and forced a punt.

UM-PennState-small-FINAL
Final Stats
Michigan Penn State
Score 28 16
Record 9-2 (6-1) 7-4 (4-3)
Total Yards 343 207
Net Rushing Yards 87 70
Net Passing Yards 256 137
First Downs 19 14
Turnovers 2 1
Penalties-Yards 13-117 3-30
Punts-Yards 6-198 6-225
Time of Possession 33:22 26:38
Third Down Conversions 7-of-14 3-of-14
Fourth Down Conversions 0-of-0 1-of-2
Sacks By-Yards 4-26 2-10
Field Goals 0-for-0 3-for-3
PATs 4-for-4 1-for-1
Red Zone Scores-Chances 3-of-4 3-of-3
Red Zone Scores-TDs 3-of-4 0-of-3
Full Box Score

Defenses ruled much of the rest of the first half until Penn State found the end zone for the first time with 1:57 remaining in the half. On 3rd-and-6, Christian Hackenberg connected with freshman receiver Saeed Blacknall for a 25-yard touchdown to put the Nittany Lions ahead 10-7.

Michigan marched 70 yards in seven plays on the arm of Rudock, who completed passes of 26 yards to Amara Darboh, four and 11 to De’Veon Smith, 18 to Butt, and then a 11-yard wide receiver screen to Darboh who evaded Penn State defenders and found the end zone. Michigan took a 14-10 lead into the break.

Michigan took the opening possession of the second half across midfield, but stalled and punted it back to Penn State. After forcing a three and out, Michigan again had to punt, but this time return man DeAndre Thompkins muffed it and Jehu Chesson recovered at the PSU 9-yard line. Three plays later, Sione Houma scored from a yard out to put Michigan ahead 21-10.

Another defensive stand gave Michigan the ball back with a chance to put the game away, but Rudock had the ball knocked out of his hands by Bell and Penn State recovered at the Michigan 42. Four plays later, Hackenberg hit Chris Godwin for a 38-yard gain to the Michigan three. But the Michigan defense held strong and forced a 24-yard field goal.

Michigan’s offense went three and out, giving Penn State a chance to tie the game with a touchdown and two-point conversion. The Nittany Lions mounted a 10-play, 62-yard drive, but couldn’t get past the the goal line and had to settle for another field goal, this time from 18 yards out.

With the game slipping away, leading just 21-16 with 7:53 remaining, Michigan needed to get something going. Enter Jourdan Lewis. The program’s single-season record holder for pass breakups took the ensuing kickoff and rumbled 55 yards to the Penn State 40-yard line, giving Michigan’s offense a much-needed boost. On the first play, Chesson took an end around 20 yards, and on 3rd-and-6, Chesson was interfered in the end zone giving Michigan 1st-and-goal at the PSU six. Two plays later, Smith broke the plane to put Michigan ahead 28-16. The defense held Penn State off the scoreboard the rest of the way and Michigan completed its first unbeaten road conference slate since 1997.

Although Michigan’s offense struggled to move the ball consistently against a very good Penn State defense, it still managed 343 total yards, and their 256 passing yards was the most Penn State’s defense has allowed all season. Michigan’s receiving trio was consistent as Darboh led the way with seven receptions for 68 yards and a score, Butt with five for 66 and a score, and Chesson with four for 69. Smith led Michigan on the ground with just 39 yards on 13 carries.

Michigan’s defense held Hackenberg to just 13-of-31 for 137 yards and one touchdown, while sacking him four times. Freshman running back Saquon Barkley, who entered the game as the Big Ten’s third-leading rusher, averaging over 100 yards per game, managed just 68 yards on 15 carries — 56 of which came on the first carry of the game.

Michigan, now 9-2 overall and 6-1 in the Big Ten, finishes the regular season next Saturday with rival Ohio State (10-1, 6-1). The Buckeyes suffered their first loss in 24 games on Saturday afternoon against Michigan State, taking some of the luster out of next Saturday’s matchup. The winner of that one needs Penn State to knock off Michigan State in order to advance to the Big Ten Championship Game on Dec. 5.

Game Ball – Offense

Jake Rudock (25 of 38 for 256 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT,)
It maybe boring to some to give Rudock the game ball for the third straight week, but since Michigan had no running game and he spread the wealth evenly between the big three receivers, it’s really hard to justify anyone else. Rudock has quietly moved his way up the Big Ten quarterback charts the last three weeks. He has completed 69.7 percent of his passes (76 of 109) for 1,033 yards, 10 touchdowns and just two interceptions during that span. He’s a major reason Michigan has won the past two weeks and if he performs the same way next Saturday Michigan could send the Buckeyes back to Columbus with a second straight loss.

Previous:
Week 1 – Jake Butt (8 rec for 93 yards and 1 TD)
Week 2 – De’Veon Smith (23 carries for 126 yards, 3 TDs)
Week 3 – Ty Isaac (8 carries for 114 yards, 1 TD)
Week 4 — De’Veon Smith (16 carries for 125 yards and 1 TD)
Week 5 — Drake Johnson (13 carries for 68 yards, 1 TD, 1 rec for 31 yards, 1 TD)
Week 6 — Mason Cole, Ben Braden, Graham Glasgow, Kyle Kalis, Erik Magnuson
Week 7 — Kenny Allen (3-for-3 field goals, 2-2 PATs)
Week 8 — Jabrill Peppers (4 carries for 16 yards, 1 TD, 1 punt return for 41 yards, 1 kick return for 43 yards)
Week 9 — Jake Rudock (18 of 25 for 337 yards, 2 TDs, 1 carry for 4 yards, 1 TD)
Week 10 — Jake Rudock (33 of 46 for 440 yards, 6 TDs, 1 INT, 7 carries for 64 yards)

Game Ball – Defense

Taco Charlton (4 tackles, 3 TFL, 2 sacks)
Everyone knew entering the game that Penn State’s offensive line was a sieve, giving up the most sacks in the Big Ten by a wide margin. The question wasn’t whether Michigan would be able to get pressure on Hackenberg; it was how many sacks would Michigan record? The answer was four and Charlton contributed half of those. In total, Michigan stopped Penn State behind the line of scrimmage 10 times and Charlton contributed three of those. While Penn State’s leading tackler had 12, and five different defenders had at least six tackles, no individual Michigan defender recorded more than five. But it was the tackles for loss and sacks that made the most impact, forcing Penn State into passing situations where they didn’t have much luck.

Previous:
Week 1 – Chris Wormley (5 tackles, 3 TFL)
Week 2 – Chris Wormley (6 tackles, 3 TFL, 1 sack)
Week 3 – Jourdan Lewis (3 tackles, 4 PBU)
Week 4 — Ryan Glasgow (3 tackles, 2 TFL)
Week 5 — Desmond Morgan (9 tackles, 1 INT, 2 PBU)
Week 6 — Jourdan Lewis (4 tackles, 1 TFL, 1 INT, 1 touchdown, 1 PBU)
Week 7 — Willie Henry (5 tackles, 3 TFL, 2 sacks, 1 PBU)
Week 8 — James Ross (9 tackles, 1 TFL, 1 sack)
Week 9 — Chris Wormley (4 tackles, 2 TFL, 2 sacks)
Week 10 — Delano Hill (10 tackles, 8 solo, 1 PBU)

M&GB staff predictions: Penn State

Friday, November 20th, 2015


StaffPicks_banner2015

It’s simple, really. The winner of tomorrow’s Michigan-Penn State matchup remains in the Big Ten title hunt for at least another few hours, while the loser is relegated to playing spoiler next Saturday. Both teams know what they have to do and what’s on the line. Penn State got an extra week to prepare and gets the benefit of home field advantage. Michigan gets a red-hot quarterback-receiver tandem and a chance to play a meaningful Ohio State game for the first time in years. Let’s take a look at our picks.

Justin

While the more high profile Big Ten game with title implications is expected to be played in a cold Columbus rain, State College calls for no precipitation, a light breeze, and 47 degrees. In other words, a perfect mid-November Saturday for football.

Staff Predictions
Michigan Penn St.
Justin 23 20
Derick 30 24
Sam 22 19
Josh 24 27
Joe 27 24
M&GB Average 25 23

Michigan’s newfound passing game will be put to the test against a strong Penn State defense that hasn’t allowed more than 251 passing yards in a single game this season. Will the loss of Lucas provide a weak link for Jake Rudock to exploit? It all depends on how well the Michigan line holds up against one of the best defensive lines in the country. If he doesn’t have time to throw Michigan will have trouble moving the ball consistently.

The good news is I don’t expect Penn State’s offense to be able to move the ball consistently either. Michigan will place an emphasis on stopping Barkley on first and second down, forcing Hackenberg into third and long situations where the Nittany Lions have struggled mightily all season.

Remember last year’s 18-13 Michigan win? This one will be similar to that. Not many sustained drives, low scoring, and good defense both ways. Michigan will need its dynamic return game to give its offense good starting field position as it has done so well this season and that will make the difference against a Penn State kick return defense that ranks 118th nationally.

In my season preview back in August I predicted that Michigan would finish 9-4 with losses to Utah, Michigan State, Penn State, and Ohio State. The first two of those have come true, but 11 weeks into the season I’ve had a change of heart. Michigan pulls it out and then has to hope the team down south can beat the team up I-96.

Michigan 23 – Penn State 20

Derick

For the second straight week, Michigan hits the road to play an extremely dangerous team. In the final road game of the season, Michigan will play against a 7-3 Penn State team that has no wins against winning power five teams. On paper, Michigan has been much better than PSU this year, but road games have really given Jim Harbaugh’s team trouble.

Penn State is a much better team than Minnesota or Indiana, two teams that easily could have beaten Michigan over the last month. The Nittany Lions are also undefeated at home, and Saturday will be the final game in Happy Valley for Christian Hackenberg and the seniors.

Unlike last weekend, this should be a defensive battle, though probably not of the magnitude we expected three weeks ago. Hackenberg is the X-factor for Penn State. If the future first-round draft pick plays one of his best games of the season, he will torch a Wolverine secondary that’s been exposed throughout the conference season. And if the defensive line gives Hackenberg as much time as it gave Nate Sudfeld, Michigan will need another 40 points to win the game.

I think Michigan can stop the run and make Penn State’s offense one-dimensional. The question becomes whether or not Jourdan Lewis and Jabrill Peppers can make enough plays to keep Jake Rudock and company out front. If Michigan runs the ball at all and plays with a lead, I like its chance to close things out and pick up a fourth road win. Michigan will escape Happy Valley with a narrow victory.

Michigan 30 – Penn State 24

Sam

The tables seem to be turning themselves of late for the Wolverines, as the once-dominant defense has slipped up lately behind a banged up defensive line while the once-shaky offense is rounding into form with back-to-back marvelous performances from Jake Rudock. At the same time, the tale of the opponents’ tape is also pulling a 180-degree turn over a course of two weeks. The good news for Michigan is that Penn State’s offense is not run nearly at the pace of Indiana’s, and their offensive line is mediocre. The bad news is that the Nittany Lions boast an impressive defense that should make things much more difficult on Rudock. I think Michigan’s defense will bounce back just enough to hold on at the end and give themselves a shot at the conference championship in The Game. Give me the Wolverines.

Michigan 22 – Penn State 19

Josh

Wow, what a scare last week was but we pulled out the win! Now on to Penn State, who presents a different challenge. Thankfully, it’s not at night. State College is a very intimidating venue at night, I love noon kickoffs.

On offense: Jake Rudock and the passing game has come on very strong as of late, and just in time since the run game seems to be lacking for whatever reason. However, Penn St. has an excellent front four and if they can pressure Rudock it will be a very long day with very little scoring. While I didn’t hold my breath for Rudock’s ability to complete some long balls it was apparent last week that he is more than capable, given time. I’m not so sure he’ll have that luxury against the Nittany Lions. If Michigan is to win this game they’ll need to keep Rudock upright, at least long enough to get some passes off, and that will be tough against guys like Anthony Zettel and Carl Nassib. I’d expect 2-3 sacks by Penn State, maybe more. That said, they will be without stud safety Jordan Lucas, leaving a hole in the back of the defense, limiting the blitzing package that they usually employ.

I think Jake Rudock will lead Michigan in rushing, again. For whatever reason the run game has been stagnant, part of that is the offensive line not opening holes and part of it is our running backs not being able to find the holes. Against a very stout defense I expect another lackluster run game again. But at least now we know we can count on Rudock to win the game with his arm. Then again, this isn’t the Rutgers or Indiana defense.

On defense: Indiana, yes Indiana, absolutely gashed us on the ground last week to the tune of 300-plus yards. Yet that doesn’t concern me against a team like Penn State, despite having one of the top three backs in the Big Ten in Saquon Barkley. Why? Because Penn State is a slow pace team. A very slow pace team. Part of the reason IU had such success, aside from missing Ryan Glasgow, was their tempo was such that it didn’t allow Michigan to substitute as much as they may have wanted, leading to very gassed defensive linemen as the game wore on. That won’t happen with PSU. Sure, they’ll try to run temp to take advantage of that but they’re not built to run a tempo offense so I don’t think that will be much of an issue. That said, I still think Barkley approaches 150 yards on the ground, he’s just too good not to get those yards and our linebackers haven’t shown the ability to get to the edge quickly enough.

As far as Hackenberg is concerned I think he’s better than we’ve seen but he’s still susceptible to sacks, and lots of them. I’m pretty sure no one else in the Big Ten has been sacked more than him. If Michigan can get a good pass rush, and be able to rotate their line to keep them fresh, then expect to see more #SACKenberg than Hackenberg. The Penn State offense wouldn’t normally worry me but the last few games have exposed some massive holes in this defense and has shown it to not be an elite unit. Couple that with a big loss in Ryan Glasgow (this defense is only average without him IMO) and Penn State’s odd proclivity for big plays with Saquon Barkely and receiver Chris Godwin and you have a recipe for an upset.

I said in my season preview that I thought Michigan would lose to Utah, MSU, OSU and then one of the 50-50 games. PSU was one of those. After needing a last second goal line stand (made even easier with the Hoke-ian clock mismanagement) and double overtime to beat Minnesota and Indiana, respectively, I think Michigan’s late game luck finally runs out in Happy Valley. Penn State makes a few big plays (which they are very good at despite all their other struggles) and pulls off the upset. Sorry folks, but Michigan won’t be playing for a Big Ten East division title against the Buckeyes next week.

Michigan 24 – Penn State 27

Joe

This is a huge week H U G E ! ! !  I will assume that coach will have this team geared up and ready on both sides of the ball along with special teams. There is no way they start peeking ahead. This unranked PSU team is 7-3 and has the potential to put up some big numbers. Defensively, we have a big advantage and should control them up front. Rudock has progressed each week and will limit his mistakes. I think Butt will get his along with Chesson and Darboh. I have no idea who will get the bulk of carries as long as we mix in some Jabrill along the way. He is a GAME CHANGER and GAME BREAKER that we have not seen in a very long time. I think this one is closer than we all would like, but the good guys will come out on top. I have Michigan winning by three.

Michigan 27 – Penn State 24

First Look: Penn State

Monday, November 16th, 2015


Penn State White out

Michigan survived a scare at Indiana on Saturday, but no matter how you look at it, the Wolverines remained in contention for the Big Ten title. This Saturday is a big one in two ways. One is out of Michigan’s control as they need Ohio State to beat Michigan State. But the one part the Wolverines can control is on the field at Penn State. Let’s take a look at how the teams compare.

Penn State team stats & Michigan comparison
Penn State | Michigan Rank Defense Rank
Points Per Game 25.2 | 32.6 93 | 49
17.7 | 14.8 13 6
Rushing Yards 1,429 | 1,688 1,522 1,032
Rush Avg. Per Game 142.9 168.8 97 67
152.2 103.2 47 8
Avg. Per Rush 4.1 | 4.3
3.8 3.1
Passing Yards 2,074 2,249 1,590 1,655
Pass Avg. Per Game 207.4 224.9 89 67 159.0 165.5 2 6
Total Offense 3,503 3,937 3,112 2,687
Total Off Avg. Per Game 350.3 393.7 103 71 311.2 268.7 13 2
Kick Return Average 23.4 32.6 28 2 25.8 21.0 118 66
Punt Return Average 7.8 12.3 72 24 5.3 13.5 32 113
Avg. Time of Possession 29:32 | 33:19 76 | 10
30:28 | 26:41
3rd Down Conversion Pct 28.0% | 43.0% 126 40
33.0% | 23.0% T30 | 3
Sacks Allowed-Yards/By-Yards 33-180 | 14-74
T120 | T28
42-316 | 25-198
1 | T35
Touchdowns Scored 31 40
22 | 16
Field Goals-Attempts 13-16 | 14-18
8-12 | 12-15
Red Zone Scores (33-36) 92%|(40-42) 95% T12 3
(24-26) 92%|(18-22) 82% 121 T49
Red Zone Touchdowns (21-36) 58%|(29-42) 69% (18-26) 69%|(8-22) 36%

After a rough showing for Michigan’s defense in Bloomington, Penn State is a welcome sight — at least on paper. The Nittany Lions rank 93rd nationally in points per game (25.2), 97th in rushing (142.9 yards per game), 89th in passing (207.4 yards per game), and 103rd in total offense (350.3 yards per game). But before we start licking our chops, the last offense Michigan faced with numbers like that was Minnesota and well, the Gophers came up a yard short of knocking off the Wolverines.

If Michigan doesn’t shore up its run defense — which is sorely missing Ryan Glasgow, who hurt his pectoral muscle against Rutgers — it could be in for a repeat of this past Saturday. Freshman running back Saquon Barkley ranks third in the Big Ten in rushing, averaging 104.5 yards per game. He missed two entire games and got just one carry in the season opener, which helps explain why Penn State’s rushing game is just 97th nationally. But he tore through Rutgers (195 yards on 21 carries), Ohio State (194 yards on 24 carries), and Northwestern (120 yards on 25 carries). He hasn’t had fewer than 62 yards in a game since Week 1, and that 62-yard performance came in the first half of the San Diego game before he got hurt and missed the rest of the game. By comparison, De’Veon Smith leads Michigan with an average of 64.7 yards per game.

The good news for Michigan is that Penn State’s passing game isn’t nearly as dangerous as Indiana’s, despite the hype of the last three years surrounding quarterback Christian Hackenberg. A big reason for his struggles is the pass blocking, or the lack there of. Penn State has allowed eight more sacks (33) than any other team in the Big Ten and ranks 120th out of 126 teams nationally in sacks allowed — just four short of the most. Hackenberg is completing just 54.2 percent of his passes, which is worst in the Big Ten by far. By comparison, Jake Rudock leads the Big Ten with a 64.2 percent completion rate.

Penn State also struggles to convert third downs. Their 28.3 percent conversion rate is better than only Kent State’s 23.3. The sacks and Hackenberg’s poor completion percentage are a big part of that, which means stopping Barkley on first and second down will go a long way toward coming out of State College with a win.

Defensively, Penn State will be one of the best Michigan has faced this season. Michigan’s pass offense has broken out the past two weeks with 777 yards, eight touchdowns, and just one interception. But Penn State’s pass defense hasn’t given up more than 251 yards in a game all season. Seven of 10 opponents have been held below 200 and four of those below 150.

The rush defense isn’t quite as formidable, giving up 152.2 yards per game on the ground. That ranks 47th nationally and eighth in the Big Ten. However, Michigan struggled to run consistently against Indiana’s 13th-ranked run defense, and if the Wolverines can’t pass at will, how will they move the ball?

If there’s one area that Michigan could capitalize it’s in the kick return game. Michigan ranks second nationally with an average of 32.6 yards per kick return. Jabrill Peppers, Jourdan Lewis, and Jehu Chesson have done a great job of setting Michigan up with good field position and that could pay off this Saturday. Penn State has given up two kick return touchdowns this season — including one to Northwestern last Saturday — and they rank 118th nationally.

An early glance at the statistical comparisons between the two teams suggests a low-scoring defensive battle. Michigan will have to load up the box to stop Barkley and force Penn State into third and long situations, and Jake Rudock is going to have to take care of the ball the way he has the past two weeks if Michigan wants to force a winner takes all matchup with Ohio State the following week.

#17 Michigan 49 – Rutgers 16: Rudock career high leads Michigan past Rutgers

Sunday, November 8th, 2015


Peppers vs Rutgers(MGoBlue.com)

It took 146 years, but the winningest program in college football history finally topped the nation’s oldest program for the first time ever on Saturday afternoon. Michigan avenged last season’s 26-24 loss in Piscataway with a dominating 49-16 victory in the Big House on Military Appreciation Day.

About the only thing that didn’t go right for Michigan’s offense was a sloppy opening possession that began with a fumble that was overturned and ended with a missed 37-yard field goal. The Wolverines scored touchdowns on their next five possessions — scored points on eight of their next nine — to blow out the Scarlet Knights.

UM-Rutgers-small-FINAL
Final Stats
Michigan Rutgers
Score 49 16
Record 7-2 (4-1) 3-6 (1-5)
Total Yards 487 225
Net Rushing Yards 150 128
Net Passing Yards 337 97
First Downs 25 17
Turnovers 0 1
Penalties-Yards 6-60 7-80
Punts-Yards 3-133 7-245
Time of Possession 33:04 26:56
Third Down Conversions 7-of-13 3-of-13
Fourth Down Conversions 0-of-0 0-of-1
Sacks By-Yards 4-32 0-0
Field Goals 2-for-3 3-for-3
PATs 5-for-5 1-for-1
Red Zone Scores-Chances 8-of-9 3-of-4
Full Box Score

Jake Rudock threw for a career high 337 yards on just 18 completions and Michigan racked up a season high 487 total yards of offense. The Michigan defense held Rutgers out of the end zone, allowing just three field goals, while the special teams gave up a kickoff return touchdown to Janarion Grant — his fourth return for a score this season.

Rudock had touchdown passes to Jehu Chesson (13 yards) and Amara Darboh (eight yards) and also ran one in himself from four yards out. Drake Johnson had a one-yard touchdown run and De’Veon Smith a four-yarder. But Michigan’s most impressive touchdown came from jack of all trades Jabrill Peppers, who took a bubble screen at the 18, made a man miss, and then zig-zagged through the Rutgers defense into the end zone. Kenny Allen added a pair of second half field goals from 34 yards and 28 yards out to reach the game’s final score.

When Michigan scored its first touchdown of the second half to take a 41-16 lead, Jim Harbaugh elected to go for two and Rudock carried it in for the conversion. Harbaugh dismissed the decision as “playing the percentages” because “that’s what the chart says.” But the players revealed a different igniter: Rutgers players chirping in the tunnel at halftime.

“They were just saying things like ‘oh yeah, it’s our time in the second half’ or ‘we’re the comeback kids,'” said Peppers, a New Jersey native. “Or ‘these guys can’t really finish games.”

Cornerback Jourdan Lewis, who broke Michigan’s single season record with his 19th pass breakup, echoed his secondary mate and paraphrased Harbaugh’s halftime direction.

“Put the foot on the gas, and finish these guys off,” Lewis said.

Were those his exact words?

“I can’t really repeat what he said,” Lewis responded, laughing. “He wanted to bring that fire back in the second half and finish them off.”

Rutgers managed to gain 110 yards from there on, but no points. Chris Laviano went just 11 of 26 for 97 yards and an interception. Running back Robert Martin managed 81 yards on 10 carries thanks to a few big runs, which Harbaugh attributed to the Scarlet Knights “trapping us.”

For Michigan, Smith led the way on the ground with 73 yards and a touchdown on 15 carries (4.9 yards per carry). Johnson gained 27 yards and a score on seven carries. Jake Butt recorded his first career 100-yard receiving game with four receptions for 102 yards.

At 7-2 overall and 4-1 in the Big Ten, Michigan now has a great opportunity to win the Big Ten East division with just three games remaining. Michigan State fell by one point to Nebraska on Saturday night. The Spartans visit unbeaten Ohio State on Nov. 21, and if the Buckeyes win that one as expected, Michigan needs only to win out to capture the division and a trip to the Big Ten Championship Game.

Michigan travels to Bloomington, Ind. next Saturday for a 3:30pm tilt with the Indiana Hoosiers (4-5, 0-5).

Game Ball – Offense

Jake Rudock (18 of 25 for 337 yards, 2 TDs, 1 carry for 4 yards, 1 TD)
If you ask most Michigan fans, the main thing holding Michigan back in Jim Harbaugh’s first season is the lack of an explosive playmaker at quarterback. But Jake Rudock has been improving and looking more comfortable in the Michigan offense each week, and he had his best game of the season on Saturday. The senior Iowa transfer completed 18 of 25 passes for a career high 337 yards and two touchdowns. He also evaded pressure and beat the Rutgers defense to the pylon for a four-yard touchdown run, and ran in a two-point conversion. He looked comfortable and confident all game before giving way to Wilton Speight in the fourth quarter.

Previous:
Week 1 – Jake Butt (8 rec for 93 yards and 1 TD)
Week 2 – De’Veon Smith (23 carries for 126 yards, 3 TDs)
Week 3 – Ty Isaac (8 carries for 114 yards, 1 TD)
Week 4 — De’Veon Smith (16 carries for 125 yards and 1 TD)
Week 5 — Drake Johnson (13 carries for 68 yards, 1 TD, 1 rec for 31 yards, 1 TD)
Week 6 — Mason Cole, Ben Braden, Graham Glasgow, Kyle Kalis, Erik Magnuson
Week 7 — Kenny Allen (3-for-3 field goals, 2-2 PATs)
Week 8 — Jabrill Peppers (4 carries for 16 yards, 1 TD, 1 punt return for 41 yards, 1 kick return for 43 yards)

Game Ball – Defense

Chris Wormley (4 tackles, 2 TFL, 2 sacks)
After shredding opposing offensive lines in the first two weeks of the season, Chris Wormley has been relatively quiet the last six weeks. But he broke out again against Rutgers on Saturday with a pair of sacks of quarterback Chris Laviano. The first came on 3rd-and-5 from the Michigan 5-yard line, forcing Rutgers to kick a field goal. The second also came on third down, this time on Rutgers’ first possession of the second half, forcing a punt. Wormley now ranks fifth in the Big Ten in solo tackles for loss with 10 and has been a crucial part of one of the nation’s top defenses.

Previous:
Week 1 – Chris Wormley (5 tackles, 3 TFL)
Week 2 – Chris Wormley (6 tackles, 3 TFL, 1 sack)
Week 3 – Jourdan Lewis (3 tackles, 4 PBU)
Week 4 — Ryan Glasgow (3 tackles, 2 TFL)
Week 5 — Desmond Morgan (9 tackles, 1 INT, 2 PBU)
Week 6 — Jourdan Lewis (4 tackles, 1 TFL, 1 INT, 1 touchdown, 1 PBU)
Week 7 — Willie Henry (5 tackles, 3 TFL, 2 sacks, 1 PBU)
Week 8 — James Ross (9 tackles, 1 TFL, 1 sack)