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Posts Tagged ‘Kain Colter’

Michigan 38 – Northwestern 31 (OT): Roundtree’s heroics propel UM

Saturday, November 10th, 2012


On a day when a trio of tackles were honored as legends, it was a receiver that made the biggest play. Roy Roundtree has become a big play legend in his own right while donning Desmond Howard’s legends jersey and has now been on the receiving end of two of the most improbable comebacks in Michigan history.

Michigan 38 – Northwestern 31 (OT)
Final Stats
38 Final Score 31
7-3, 5-1 Record 7-3, 3-3
419 Total Yards 431
133 Net Rushing Yards 248
286 Net Passing Yards 183
21 First Downs 27
2 Turnovers 1
2-26 Penalties – Yards 8-75
3-154 Punts – Yards 4-164
25:32 Time of Possession 34:28
7-of-10 Third Down Conversions 8-of-16
0-of-0 Fourth Down Conversions 1-of-2
2-21 Sacks By – Yards 1-2
1-for-1 Field Goals 1-for-1
5-for-5 PATs 4-for-4
5-for-5 Red Zone Scores – Chances 4-for-5

When Michigan got the ball back at its own 38 with 18 seconds remaining, J.T. Floyd told the offense that the defense did its part and now it was up to them. Devin Gardner launched the ball downfield and Roundtree tipped it in the air and caught it from his knees at the Northwestern 9-yard line with eight seconds left. Brendan Gibbons hit the 26-yard field goal to tie the game at 31.

In overtime, Michigan got the ball first and went right back to Roundtree. A 17-yard reception put the ball inside the 10 and after a pair of Fitz Toussaint runs to the Northwestern one, Gardner faked the handoff and rolled to the right for the touchdown. After the game, Gardner credited Al Borges with the call.

“That was a play call by Coach Borges; it was a great call,” Gardner said. “When I saw how tight they were, I was like ‘this is the best call possible’ and I basically walked into the end zone.”

Northwestern took over needing a touchdown to force a second overtime, but on 4th-and-2, Kenny Demens hit Tyris Jones at the line of scrimmage to seal the deal.

The game was a lot closer than many expected, with both teams fighting to keep their respective Big Ten title hopes alive. Northwestern struck first with a 10-play, 78-yard touchdown drive after forcing Michigan to punt away its first possession. But Michigan matched the Wildcats with a 10-play, 78-yard drive of its own, capped off by a Gardner 8-yard touchdown run. On the run, Gardner appeared to have nowhere to go around the 5-yard line, but pump-faked the defender which gave him just enough space to dive for the pylon.

Michigan appeared to be ready to score again on its next possession as Toussaint broke a 50-yard run inside the NW 10-yard line. But a hit from behind popped the ball loose and Northwestern recovered at its own three.

The Wildcats moved the ball to the 49, but Jibreel Black sacked Colter and knocked the ball loose. Michigan recovered at the Northwestern 37.

Roundtree's acrobatic catch saved the game (photo by MGoBlue.com)

At the beginning of the second quarter, Michigan struck again, this time a 10-play, 37-yard drive punctuated by a Thomas Rawls 1-yard touchdown run. Gardner kept the drive alive with a 17-yard run on 3rd-and-11.

The teams traded punts and Northwestern got the ball back with 1:53 remaining in the first half. Backup quarterback Trevor Siemian came in and guided the Wildcats to a game-tying touchdown that covered 56 yards in six plays. The teams entered halftime deadlocked at 14.

In the second half, Northwestern did just what it did on its first possession of the game: march the ball right down the field for a score. The Wildcats went 75 yards on 10 plays as Kain Colter found Dan Vitale for a 23-yard touchdown pass.

Michigan went three-and-out and NW was on the move again. On 3rd-and-goal from the eight, Craig Roh came up with a big sack to force the Wildcats to kick a 34-yard field goal and take a 24-14 lead.

Michigan answered right back with a four-play, 78-yard drive that was aided by a pass interference call on Northwestern on 3rd-and-17. Right after that, Gardner found Jeremy Gallon for a 42-yard play and then dumped the ball off to Toussaint who romped 28 yards into the end zone.

After forcing a NW punt, Michigan went 91 yards on 11 plays to regain the lead. On 3rd-and-6 from the Northwestern eight, Gardner hit Devin Funchess in the end zone. Michigan led 28-24 with 8:45 to play.

But Northwestern wasn’t finished. The Wildcats mounted an eight-play, 66-yard drive to take the lead back. Colter had to come out of the game with an injury and Siemian came in and completed passes of 21 yards and 15 yards. The Wildcats were also helped out by a 15-yards roughing the passer penalty on Brennen Beyer, taking away what would have been 3rd-and-11.

Dennis Norfleet returned the ensuing kickoff 37 yards to the Michigan 42, but Gardner was intercepted on the first play. With 3:37 remaining, Northwestern forced Michigan to use its time outs and set up 4th-and-1 from theMichigan 41. Colter was stopped by James Ross just short of the 40, but the measurement awarded the Wildcats a first down and it appeared all of Michigan’s hopes were dashed. NW kept running the ball to work the clock and Michigan forced the punt with 25 seconds remaining, setting up the end-of-game drama that unfolded.

Michigan kept its hopes of winning the Legends division alive while dashing Northwestern’s. For the Wildcats, it was a familiar refrain: blowing late-game leads as they have done so often this year.

Michigan hosts Iowa next week in what will be Denard Robinson’s final game in the Big House. It remains to be seen whether he will be able to play. Brady Hoke said he’s still day-to-day. But as Denard has been on the sideline, the legend of Devin Gardner continues to grow. However, Gardner dismissed any notion of replacing Denard in Michigan’s lineup.

“This is Denard’s team and it’s always going to be Denard’s team until he’s gone,” Gardner said. “He’s done way too much for two games to change that.”

M&GB Pick’em: Northwestern staff predictions

Friday, November 9th, 2012


Last week, none of us expected Denard to miss the entire game, but regardless it went about as expected. Katie picked up her first win of the season, nearly getting the score exactly right. Her 38-13 prediction was just three off of the 35-13 result. The rest of us were all close as well. This week, Michigan returns home to face Northwestern. Denard’s status is up in the air once again, but that shouldn’t change the outcome too much in this one.

M&GB PREDICTION SUMMARY

____________________________

Justin: Michigan 28 – Northwestern 17

Chris: Michigan 27 - Northwestern 18

Josh: Michigan 31 – Northwestern 17

Sam: Michigan 27 – Northwestern 17

Katie: Michigan 30 – Northwestern 24

Matt: Michigan 35 – Northwestern 10

___________________________

Average: Michigan 30 – Northwestern 17

Justin (1): Northwestern will put up its best effort, but Michigan will be too much in this one regardless of who pilots the offense. Look for more passing than usual, especially if Devin Gardner is behind center. Big games from Jeremy Gallon, Drew Dileo, or Devin Funchess are in the crystal ball. The Wildcats will hang tough into the third quarter before Michigan seals the deal.

Check out the game preview, Friend vs Foe and First Look for more.

Michigan 28 – Northwestern 17

Chris (2): Northwestern enters this game with two losses (both in the Big Ten) and, like Michigan, is looking for help to make it to the Big Ten Championship.  If they lose on Saturday, their chances of winning the conference are gone.  Similarily, Michigan is also needing a win to stay in contention for the Big Ten title.  However, the Wolverines only need Nebraska to lose one of its remaining games for them to make it to Indianapolis.  So there is a lot on the line for both teams.

The strength of this Northwestern team is its rushing offense.  They are ranked 13th nationally in total rushing behind Junior running back Venric Mark and dual threat quarterback Kain Colter.  The passing game is a different story, however.  The Wildcats rank #113 overall.  So given this, the key for Michigan will be to stop Northwestern from moving the ball on the ground.  I see Defensive Coordinator Greg Mattison committing a safety down into the box to provide some extra run support and force Northwestern to the air where the Michigan defense excels.

Defensively, Northwestern is right in the middle of the pack in the NCAA total defense rankings at 60th.  They do give up over 3 touchdowns per game and a lot of yardage through the air.  This should bode well for either Michigan quarterback that starts the game.  We know that Devin Gardner throws a nice ball and if Denard Robinson’s elbow is healthy, he will benefit from a young secondary which has been susceptible to the big play.  Michigan will need to run the ball to win though.  As we’ve seen with these guys, relying on only the pass to win is not a winning strategy.  A good mix of run and pass should open up more plays and help move the ball down the field for the Wolverines.

Colter doesn't pass often, but completes a high percentage (photo by Nam Y. Huh, AP)

On another note, expect an aggressive defensive game plan from Northwestern Head Coach Pat Fitzgerald, especially after seeing some of the holes which both Nebraska and Minnesota exposed in the Michigan offensive line.  The line must play better than they have the last two weeks and keep the pressure from reaching either Denard or Gardner in the backfield before they can make a play.

I expect this game to be close as both teams are fighting for their seasons.  I expect that the Michiagn defense will give up some points, but not more than what the much weaker Northwestern defense will.  Northwestern will play on emotion and look to try to create some big turnovers to give their offense some extra possessions.  But in the end, Michigan will win.

Michigan 27 – Northwestern 18

Josh (2): Pat Fitzgerald has done a great job in Evanston and Northwestern is not the pushover they once were. However, Michigan still has the better team and better coaching staff. Under Hoke Michigan is undefeated in the Big House and that trend should continue.

Northwestern doesn’t pass the ball much (just under 140 yards per game) but they have a versatile QB in Cain Kolter and they can run the ball very well. Kolter does not present the same type of threat Denard does but he is deadly with the ball nonetheless. His backfield mate, Venric Mark, is built from the Vincent Smith mold; small and quick but with more strength than you’d think.

It is yet to be determined if Denard will resume his duties in the backfield, but Devin Gardner is a capable backup and it shouldn’t matter which QB takes the field. If I had to guess, I’d say Gardner gets the nod as Hoke rests Denard for another week just to be safe. If that is the case look for Borges to try to air it out. This Northwestern defense allowed Taylor Martinez to go 27/39 for 342 yards and while improved he is not considered a great passer. Thomas Rawls should play more of a role as Michigan is still looking to get someone other than Denard going on the ground.

Michigan needs to win this game to stay in the hunt for the Big Ten title game. Nebraska has Penn St. at home today, Minnesota next week and must travel to Iowa to end the season. Not the toughest road, but anything can happen.

Michigan takes control of this game late and pulls away in a closer than expected battle.

Michigan 31 – Northwestern 17


Matt (2): This game is going to be a good one. It scares me a little. To tell you the truth, it has scared me since the beginning of the season. I knew Northwestern would be good this season. Pat Fitzgerald is doing good things there. He’s a good coach. I knew he’d be able to build them up and make them a player in the Big Ten, something that Northwestern hasn’t been in a while.

Tyler Scott leads the Big ten with seven sacks

Northwestern has only lost two games this season. One to Penn State at Beaver Stadium, and one to Nebraska in Ryan Field. Of course we all know who Michigan has lost to, so let’s not even go there…

Michigan is ranked a little higher in passing than Northwestern, but the Wildcats are ranked higher in rushing. Northwestern has a duo of running backs that are really tearing up defenses. However, Michigan’s defense has turned into a beast this season. After playing horribly against Alabama, and not great against Air Force, our D has really stepped up. I don’t see it being any different this Saturday.

I think that Northwestern will come out being able to move the ball a little at the beginning of the game, but Michigan’s defense is going to wear them out. No matter how many running backs they want to use.

A big question about this game is, will Denard Robinson play? Last week we heard he was going to play. However he did not. Devin Gardner started in his place…and kicked some serious Golden Gopher tail. I heard Denard is day-to-day, which could mean anything. Will we see him Saturday? Not sure. But honestly, if Devin Gardner has to take the snaps as quarterback again, you won’t hear me complaining. But that’s just me.

Michigan comes off of an awesome victory against Minnesota, come into the Big House pumped, take down one of the best in the Big Ten, and never looks back. I predict Michigan will shut down Northwestern’s offense, only allowing a few scores.

Michigan by 25. And they are starting to get pumped for The Game in Columbus…

Michigan 35 – Northwestern 10

Sam (1): This Saturday’s Michigan-Northwestern football game is one big question mark as far as I’m concerned. Sure, Michigan has more talent overall, is the home team, and is playing for a conference championship. At the same time, however, Northwestern is a tough team to figure out, Denard Robinson’s status is up in the air, and the Wildcats won the last matchup between these two teams at the Big House back in 2008.

Still, the oddsmakers give the Wolverines nearly a double-digit edge for this weekend, perhaps because of Northwestern’s inability to close out the big game. And while Northwestern sits at 7-2 overall, with one loss coming at Penn State and another in a one-point heartbreaker against Northwestern, the best team they have beaten is one of Indiana, Vanderbilt, or Iowa – certainly no powerhouses this season. Nebraska and at Penn State are not bad losses for an average team by any means, but the fact that Northwestern blew fourth quarter leads in both of those games raises serious question marks about their ability to stay with and finish off better opponents.

The diminutive Venric Mark is always dangerous

Pat Fitzgerald’s team is quarterbacked by the dual-threat speedster Kain Colter, who has actually run for 100 yards and eight touchdowns more than he has thrown for. The likely reason for that, however, is Northwestern’s other quarterback, Trevor Siemian, who has attempted almost twice as many throws as Colter has but doesn’t have the legs to scare the defense. Fitzgerald will often utilize both of these guys on the field at once to maximize their speed of play and to give defenses a couple drastically different looks using the same exact personnel. Expect more of Colter than Siemian throughout, but I think we will see a decent dose of each.

In the backfield, the cat-like Venric Mark has been remarkable for the Cats, running for 1,072 yards on 166 carries (6.5 ypc) and nine touchdowns. As you may have guessed by now, Northwestern is a team that will keep the ball on the ground, having attempted exactly 150 more rushes than passes through nine weeks. Interestingly, their yards per attempt running (5.3) and passing (5.78) are very similar, hinting that Fitzgerald does a great job of spreading the field. In a running-spread offense, the point is to neutralize defenders and win the numbers game when pounding the rock, which Northwestern has clearly succeeded at so far. More yards per attempt passing would be ideal, but Northwestern just doesn’t have that go-to guy on the outside.

Four receivers for Fitzgerald have recorded at least 200 yards through the air, but no one has more than 266 yards or 26 catches, both fairly low numbers through nine games. Obviously the advantage in using this approach is that defenses need to focus on stopping the run first and cannot key in on any receiver when Colter or Siemian drop back to pass, but the disadvantage is that there isn’t that one reliable guy that can be counted on every night to have a serviceable game.

For Michigan, the receiving woes are quite familiar, as Jeremy Gallon leads the team with merely 22 receptions for 390 yards. The next-leading receiver is Devin Gardner with 16 catches. And Gardner will probably be throwing the balls instead of catching them this Saturday.

The big if for the Wolverines couldn’t be more obvious. If Denard Robinson can safely go, Michigan should have no problem running the ball, and the run should clear up the passing lanes a little bit. If Robinson cannot play, Gardner will step in at quarterback and likely throw and handoff a majority of the time despite his athletic ability because the coaches will do everything in their power to keep him protected; an injury to Gardner in the case of Robinson’s absence would likely see the non-fictional Jack Kennedy taking snaps.

Gardner, of course, will hand the ball off plenty, but the running backs haven’t exactly been a strength for the Wolverines either, as the once-touted Fitz Toussaint has yet to eclipse 100 yards a game, senior Vincent Smith averages just 2.8 yards per carry, and the remaining backs behind them are wildly unproven. This game plan could get very interesting very fast.

Pat Fitzgerald hopes to keep his Wildcats in Big Ten title contention (photo by Terry Gilliam, AP)

With all the uncertainties, a prediction is hard to come up with, but I suppose it’s a requirement to write for this blog. Northwestern has done an above-average job of stopping the run this season and only gives up a tick more than 22 points per game, but Michigan’s defense will be the difference in this game. Neither Colter nor Siemian are big enough passing threats to keep Michigan from stacking the box and slowing the effectiveness of the run. If Denard is back, Michigan has the game in hand going into the fourth quarter. If Gardner is quarterback, this game will come down to the last 10 minutes. Either way, Michigan wins.

Michigan 27 – Northwestern 17

Katie (1): This is where things get interesting. Nebraska and Michigan are tied for first in the Big Ten Legends division, but Michigan, having lost to the Huskers, needs to stay at one loss and see their rival at the top of the standings lose one of its next three conference games. This could very well be a problem if Nebraska goes to 5-1 this weekend by beating Penn State. After that they face a weak opponent in the Golden Gophers before going on the road to Kinnick Stadium to go up against a mediocre Hawkeye team that will likely be looking to play spoiler, and perhaps fighting to remain bowl eligible. That’s also saying that Michigan will finish the season with three more wins against Northwestern, Iowa, and Ohio State, which makes the loss to Nebraska look more and more like the crack that eventually leads to the breaking of the dam, and the washing away of the dream of a conference championship.

But there are still three weeks left of football to be played, and anyone who watches the top 25 rankings knows just how much can happen in one week, let alone three.

Northwestern is 7-2 (3-2) with losses to Penn State and Nebraska. They have yet to play a ranked team, and have built a record on beating Vanderbilt (the academic pride of the SEC), South Dakota, and a down and out Boston College team.  However, their offense has been able to put up at least 21 points in every game.  Defensively they have three linemen and a safety who all have more than 65 tackles, a pretty impressive statistic even when considering the caliber of teams they have faced.  It’s those assessments that is likely why Northwestern has clawed its way into the AP polls at number 24.

The Wildcats also play two quarterbacks, and seem to do it relatively well.  Mark Venric, their running back, has gone over a thousand yards on the season and has scored nine touchdowns, and their four top receivers are all over two hundred yards.  Other than having a glorified running back as a QB who makes up much of our offense, Michigan fairs about the same statistically.  However, with Hoke being tight lipped about who the starter will be in this weeks game, my vote is for Gardner who showed real determination and poise, albeit against Minnesota.  It can’t be natural to switch position from game to game, and I want to give credit where it is due.  That being said I think that either player will be able to do well under the helm, but as for passing ability I wouldn’t put the ball back in Denard’s hands just yet.  I want to see what Gardner can do, especially when there seems to have been an agreement that he could shift back to the quarterback position next year.  An offensive struggle seems to be in the cards this week.

This one should be close, and as the schools are academic rivals as well as athletic this match up should be fun to watch.

Michigan 30 – Northwestern 24

Michigan vs Northwestern game preview

Friday, November 9th, 2012


Three games remain in the regular season and Michigan must win all of them to stay in the Big Ten title hunt. And just like last week, the Wolverines might have to do it without Denard Robinson. All week, Brady Hoke has been coy about Denard’s status. When asked about Denard’s status on Thursday morning, Hoke said, “We’ve got a plan in place and we’ve been running through it all week.” When asked again, he replied simply, “I don’t know. The plan is to go out and win a football game.”

Michigan Stadium  -  Ann Arbor, Mich.
12pm EST  -  ESPN
______________

Northwestern Head Coach: Pat Fitzgerald (6th season)
Coaching Record: 47-38
Offensive Coordinator: Mick McCall
Defensive Coordinator: Mike Hankwitz
Returning Starters: 10 (5 offense, 5 defense)
Last Season: 6-7 (3-5)
Last Meeting: Michigan 42 – Minnesota 24 (2011)
All-time Series: Michigan leads 53-15-2
In Ann Arbor: Michigan leads 33-6-2
In Michigan Stadium: 29-6-2
Current Streak: Michigan 1

Michigan did win a football game last week without Denard thanks to a solid performance by Devin Gardner and the receiving corps stepping up. But this week’s opponent, Northwestern, is a better team than Minnesota.

Northwestern enters at 7-2 overall and 3-2 in the Big Ten. Pat Fitzgerald’s squad holds onto extremely slim Big Ten championship hopes, needing to win out and get a lot of help, so the Wildcats will be fighting for their season. The two losses were at Penn State (39-28) and against nebraska (29-28). In that Nebraska game, Northwestern blew a 12 point lead in the fourth quarter. The seven teams Northwestern has beaten have a combined record of 25-38. So is the 7-2 record indicative of a solid squad, or is it more of a reflection of an incredibly weak schedule? Let’s take a look.

When Northwestern has the ball

Quarterback Kain Colter is a version of Denard Robinson that also plays other positions. Sophomore Trevor Siemian started a handful of games at quarterback to allow Colter to play receiver, but Colter has taken back the quarterback job. He has completed 62-of-89 passes for 517 yards, three touchdowns, and two interceptions. But he’s even more dangerous with his feet. He’s the second leading rusher on the team with 622 yards and 11 touchdowns on 114 attempts.

What’s even more dangerous is his backfield mate Venric Mark who is the Big Ten’s second leading rusher in terms of yards per game (119.7). He has eclipsed 100 yards in six of the nine games, including each of the past three. He had 182 yards against Minnesota and 162 yards on 16 carries against Iowa two weeks ago. He’s only 5’8″ but works perfectly in the zone read offense.

The receiving corps doesn’t have a standout, but has several players that contribute. Seven different players have double digit receptions and six of those have over 100 yards. The leading receiver, Tony Jones, hails from Grand Blanc, Mich. and was high school teammates with Justice Hayes and an AAU basketball teammate with Gardner. Oh, and his cousin is Thomas Rawls. He’ll be looking to impress his home state, but the Wildcat passing game isn’t one to be overly concerned with.

Venric Mark and Kain Colter form a dangerous backfield duo

The offensive line is experienced, led by center Brandon Vitabile and seniors Brian Mulroe and Pat Ward on the left side. They have helped pave the way for the Big Ten’s third best rushing offense. They’ve also allowed just 12 sacks, which is second best only to Michigan’s 10. However, a lot of that is a result of the lack of a passing game.

Northwestern runs a zone read offense that aims to get the playmakers – Colter and Mark – to the edge where they can beat cornerbacks and outside linebackers in space. It’s a fast-paced offense that rarely huddles and will sometimes split Colter out wide with Siemian behind center. Similar to last season’s matchup, the Wildcat offense will probably have some success early in the game before Greg Mattison adjusts.

When Michigan has the ball

Northwestern’s defense is slightly above average at stopping the run, but last in the conference against the pass. As mentioned in yesterday’s Friend vs Foe, both Penn State and Nebraska were able to put up gaudy numbers through the air in their wins over NW. In the season opener, Syracuse’s Ryan Nassib threw for 482 yards on 66 attempts.

The strength of the defense is the linebacking unit. Middle linebacker Damien Proby leads the ‘Cats with 86 tackles. David Nwabuisi is second with 75 and Chi Chi Ariguzo ranks third with 67. They’re a major reason for the success of the run defense, but they’re don’t excel in pass coverage, which is one of the reasons Northwestern has such a weak pass defense.

The line is led by end Tyler Scott who has a Big Ten best seven sacks to go along with 8.5 tackles for loss, leading the team in both categories. The other end is Quentin Williams who has 2.5 sacks and 3.5 tackles for loss. The guys in the middle are small and don’t make a lot of impact. Brian Arnfelt has three sacks, but Sean McEvilly has one, but that’s about it.

Safety Ibraheim Campbell is the leader of the secondary. He has 67 tackles and loves to come up in run support. The Wildcats have just three interceptions and only one of them is from a defensive back, Nick VanHoose.

The nation’s 108th-ranked pass defense gives up 272.2 yards per game and it’s a good bed Michigan will have success as well.

The other third

Kicker Jeff Budzien has made 11-of-12 this season with a long of 44. His lone miss was over 50 yards, so he’s about as reliable as it gets in the Big Ten this season. He made 6-of-10 last season. Punter Brandon Williams averages 39.9 yards per punt, which ranks eighth in the Big Ten. In the return game, Northwestern is dangerous with Mark averaging 25.1 yards per punt return. He has already returned two four touchdowns this season.

Prediction

Rushing Attempts: 12 – Denard will pass Tyrone Wheatley for 6th in career rushing attempts.
Rushing Yards: 4 – Denard will pass Tyrone Wheatley for 4th in career rushing yards. With 115, he could pass Missouri’s Brad Smith (2002-05) for 2nd in NCAA FBS history. With 219, he could pass Jamie Morris for 3rd in Michigan history.
Rushing Touchdowns: 1 – Denard will pass Mike Hart for 3rd in career rushing touchdowns.
100 rushing yards: Denard will pass Jamie Morris for 4th in career 100-yard rushing games.
Pass Completions: 17 – Denard will pass Tom Brady for 5th in career completions.
Pass Yards: 211 – Denard will pass Elvis Grbac for 3rd in career passing yards.
Total Yards: 170 – Denard will pass Illinois’ Juice Williams (2006-09) for 6th in career total yards in Big Ten history.
Field Goals: 1 – Brendan Gibbons will tie Bob Bergeron for 6th in career field goals made. With 3 he will tie Ali Haji-Sheikh for 5th.

Like I said yesterday, I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see Gardner to play tomorrow. Northwestern can be torched through the air and if Denard’s throwing elbow is still at all bothersome, Hoke won’t risk the possibility of Denard playing against Ohio State. Michigan is more of a passing threat with Gardner at the helm and with the aggressiveness of Northwestern’s linebackers, he should be able to find a healthy dose of Jeremy Gallon, Drew Dileo, and Devin Funchess underneath. Regardless of who is behind center, expect a big passing day.

Defensively, Michigan will give up some yards in the first half, adjust and clamp down. It will be tough to slow down Colter and Mark, but with no major passing threat to worry about, Mattison can hone in on the run, and he has the advantage of going up against the same type of offense in practice day in and day out.

It will be close through the first half and into the third quarter, but Michigan will be too much for the Wildcats and will keep its title hopes alive.

Michigan 28 – Northwestern 17

Notes

As Michigan has done every game this season, another player (or set of players) will be given “legends” distinction prior to kickoff. This time, it is the Wistert brothers – Francis, Albert, and Alvin – who all wore number 11 in the 1940s. All three were first team All-Americans. One Michigan player will be awarded the number to go along with the previous numbers that have been given out: 47 to Jake Ryan, 87 to Brandon Moore, and 48 to Desmond Morgan. The Wistert brothers played offensive and defensive tackle, so my guess as to which player will get the honor is Quinton Washington, who has stepped up this season and been good off the field.

Bonus: the brothers’ nicknames were Whitey, Ox, and Moose.

Friend vs Foe: Northwestern edition

Thursday, November 8th, 2012


For this week’s edition of Friend vs. Foe, we welcome Philip from the Northwestern blog Lake the Posts.  He will provide his perspective on how or why Northwestern can beat Michigan on Saturday. Remember, this is not an actual game prediction. It is an attempt to describe how or why each team can win from each side of the matchup.

The case for Northwestern

by Philip

If there is one thing you learn from watching Northwestern football it is that anything is possible on any given day. Except a Northwestern blowout win. Those just don’t happen. In Big Ten play this year, the Wildcats have proven that they can play with everyone on their schedule and that they cannot protect a lead in the fourth quarter. But you have to be good enough to build a lead in order to blow it – at least that is what the optimist in me says.

Northwestern had to do something and while the losses to Nebraska and Penn State still wake me up in a cold sweat, NU did some really nice things to get there that any defense has to be prepared to handle. This season has seen the emergence of Northwestern’s run game, something the team has not really had since Tyrell Sutton in 2005.

Venric Mark is this team’s biggest offensive weapon and his attitude has permeated through this rushing attack. He has already hit the 1,000 yard mark and has breakaway speed. Teams don’t punt to him anymore because his likely to break one at any time. He had an 80-yard run against Nebraska and two 50-yard runs against Minnesota. Despite his small size and speed, Mark is not afraid to dish out a hit and run between the tackles. Don’t be surprised to see him burst through a tiny crack between the hashes and burst forward or to get up from a pile and into a defensive lineman’s face. If you do not have your defense locked onto Mark he will score on you and score on you quickly.

That makes Northwestern especially dangerous in the option game. Kain Colter still does some every-backing here and there, but he is most effective when he runs the option with Mark next to him. Just the threat of Colter opens things up for Mark and the threat of Mark opens things up for Colter, who is a very good decisionmaker in the option and extremely slippery when he is out on the perimeter.

On the other side of the ball, the Wildcats defense is improved although still a little weak. The run defense has been solid all year and the defensive line and linebackers have been solid. So long as they are making tackles and not overly winded from an offense that cannot stay on the field. The secondary too is improved even though it continues to give up yards in chunks. But the communications issue and generally the deep passes are not there for opposing teams. Northwestern has long not been a team you can overlook, but now that is really true. There is a reason Northwestern is No. 24 in the BCS.

The key for the Wildcats is staying on the field offensively. That has been the offense’s struggle all year and it has led to disastrous results for Northwestern. Coming off the bye week, I suspect Northwestern will feel comfortable with its gameplan and come out with a lot of confidence in its run game led by Kain Colter, with easy passes mixed in to keep the defense off balance. There may be some Trevor Siemian sightings when Northwestern needs a long pass or Colter needs a breather. If he gets into any kind of rhythm passing, this offense becomes downright scary.

More importantly, if the Wildcats are able to sustain drives, the defense is good enough to hold down just about any offense and give the Cats a chance to win the game. If the Wildcats are unable to score points or sustain drives, the defense could get tired and that makes no lead safe.

The case for Michigan

by Justin

This is a game that concerns me probably more than it should, similar to how I felt entering last season’s matchup. Northwestern is probably a better team right now than it was last season and Michigan is arguably slightly worse. Michigan must win to stay in Big Ten title contention, while Northwestern can also say the same, although the Wildcats’ path to Indianapolis is much more narrow than Michigan’s.

The good thing is Northwestern’s strength – an explosive offense – feeds right into Michigan’s strength – a highly-ranked defense. The Wildcats rank 13th nationally in rush offense, averaging 236.4 yards per game, but just 113th in pass offense. Michigan’s pass defense ranks first in the nation, and likely will remain that way after Saturday, but Greg Mattison has shown the past two years the ability to slow down a one-dimensional offense. Against big, pro-style offenses like Alabama that are equally as dangerous with the run and pass, the defense is vulnerable. But when he can gear up to stop the run, the defense responds.

Kain Colter is a fantastic athlete, but the NW offense is similar to Michigan’s, relying heavily on the zone read, albeit at a faster pace. Mattison has done well to slow down these types of offenses, if not at first, but at least after making adjustments throughout the game.

Northwestern hasn’t yet faced a really good defense this season, and the two good ones it did face, Penn State (26th) and Nebraska (31st), resulted in losses. Penn State limited Northwestern to just 247 total yards (112 rushing), while Nebraska held NW to 180 yards rushing. Both are well below the season average. There’s no reason to think Michigan’s defense can’t do the same.

But where Michigan will win is on the other side of the ball. Northwestern’s total defense ranks 60th nationally and 35th in points allowed per game, giving up almost a touchdown more than Michigan. While the rush defense is respectable, the pass defense gives up 272 yards per game. Matt McGloin torched the Wildcats for 282 and Taylor Martinez did so for 342. This is where I think in this game, given the health of Denard Robinson, Devin Gardner might present the better matchup. It’s kind of blasphemous to say so, and I still think Michigan can win whether Gardner or Denard starts, but Gardner presents a better passing game, especially with Denard’s ailing throwing elbow.

Of course, no one outside of The Fort knows the status right now, so until I hear otherwise, I’m going to assume Denard will be the starter. If so, I believe he can have a game similar to what he did last year against Northwestern (337 yards and two touchdowns passing, 117 yards and two touchdowns rushing) and similar to Martinez’s performance a couple weeks ago.

I have a sneaking suspicion that we will see some Gardner regardless of Denard’s health, but expect a closely contested first half with Michigan pulling away in the second. It won’t be as high scoring ast last year’s meeting in Evanston, but there’s no reason Michigan should lose. Stay tuned for tomorrow’s game preview and staff predictions for a more in depth analysis.

Northwestern: first look

Sunday, November 4th, 2012


Read our preseason preview here.

Michigan kept its Big Ten title hopes alive by doing exactly what it was expected to do: beat Minnesota. The quest continues this Saturday against another Legends division foe that has its own, albeit unlikely, championship hopes. Northwestern enters 7-2 overall and 3-2 in the conference. The two losses came at the hands of Penn State and Nebraska, and because of that loss to the Cornhuskers, Northwestern has to win out and needs Nebraska to lose twice more to win the division.

In all reality, Northwestern should have beaten Nebraska, just like Michigan State should have done this past Saturday. The Wildcats held a 12 point lead in the fourth quarter, but let it slip away. Otherwise, this Saturday’s game would be even bigger for both teams. Can Michigan keep it’s hopes alive, or will Northwestern put an end to them? Let’s take a look.

Northwestern 2012 Statistics & Michigan Comparison
Northwestern Michigan Rank Opponent Rank
Points Per Game 30.4 | 28.8 52 | 60 22.3 | 16.8 35 | 13
Rushing Yards 2,128 | 1,808 1,092 | 1,289
Rush Avg. Per Game 236.4 | 200.9 13 | 28 121.3 | 143.2 23 | 44
Avg. Per Rush 5.3 | 5.0 3.5 | 3.7
Passing Yards 1,461 | 1,606 2,452 | 1,309
Pass Avg. Per Game 162.3 | 178.4 109 | 105 272.4 | 145.4 107 | 1
Total Offense 3,589 | 3,414 3,544 | 2,598
Total Off Avg. Per Game 398.8 | 379.3 67 | 82 393.8 | 288.7 60 | 7
Kick Return Average 15.9 | 22.4 116 | 53 20.0 | 21.7 38 | 68
Punt Return Average 21.0 | 8.9 3 | 57 3.3 | 6.3 11 | 49
Avg. Time of Possession 29:08 | 30:35 80 | 48 30:52 | 29:25
3rd Down Conversion Pct 46% | 48% 25 | 16 39% | 34% 57 | 31
Sacks By-Yards 19-130 | 11-99 52 | 105 12-69 | 10-78 24 | 18
Touchdowns Scored 34 | 31 24 | 15
Field Goals-Attempts 12-13 | 14-17 11-13 | 15-21
Red Zone Scores (32-35) 91% | (28-31) 90% 8 | 14 (26-32) 81% | (22-26) 85% 56 | 87
Red Zone Touchdowns (22-35) 63% | (17-31) 55% (17-32) 53% | (11-26) 42%

The main thing that sticks out of the stats is Northwestern’s run game which ranks 13th nationally and third in the Big Ten behind Nebraska and Ohio State. The reason for the success is the two-headed monster of running back Venric Mark and jack of all trades Kain Colter. Mark trails only Michigan State’s Le’Veon Bell in yards per game (119.7) and is second only to Denard Robinson in yards per carry (6.5). Colter has carried the ball 114 times for 622 yards and 11 touchdowns.

While the run game is highly successful, the passing game leaves much to be desired. Averaging just 162.3 yards per game through the air, Northwestern is last in the Big Ten. Quarterback Trevor Siemian has completed just under 59 percent of his passes for 931 yards, four touchdowns, and three interceptions. But after underwhelming performances against Penn State and Wisconsin, it was Colter who regained the quarterback position against Iowa on Saturday. He threw just nine passes, completing six of them, but one of those completions was a 47-yard touchdown. It hasn’t been officially announced yet, but he will likely be under center this Saturday.

Venric Mark is the Big Ten's second leading rusher (photo by Nam Y. Huh, AP)

Sounds a big like Michigan, right? Good run game, lackluster passing game, explosive dual-threat quarterback. Well, what about their defense?

Northwestern boasts a solid rush defense, allowing just 121.3 yards per game, which ranks 23rd nationally and fourth in the Big Ten. The best rushing offense the Wildcats have faced, Nebraska, was held to 68 yards below its season average. However, the ‘Huskers lit up the NW pass defense with 342 yards through the air. And that leads us to the Wildcat weakness and the main discrepancy between Michigan and Northwestern: pass defense.

Northwestern gives up an average of 272.4 passing yards per game, which is last in the Big Ten and 107th nationally. This also likely plays into the good rush defense numbers, but any way you slice it, there’s room to pass on the Wildcats. Last season, Denard passed for 337 yards on NW – the second best passing game of his career.

Linebacker Damien Proby leads the team, and ranks fourth in the conference, in tackles with 86, while fellow linebacker David Nwabuisi ranks ninth in the Big Ten with 75. They’re a large part of why the run defense has been so good. Defensive back Ibraheim Campbell ranks 12th in the conference with 67, which gives NW three players with more tackles than Michigan’s top tackler, Desmond Morgan. Of course, tackles don’t tell the whole picture. Defensive lineman Scott Tyler leads the Big Ten with seven sacks.

An area of concern for Michigan should be in the return game. Mark averages 25.2 yards per punt return and has already returned two for touchdowns this season. He hasn’t had as much success on kick returns, but he’s still dangerous any time the ball is in his hands and Michigan hasn’t been great at covering kicks this season.

It will certainly be a tougher game than this past Saturday, but it’s another game that Michigan should win. Michigan now carries the nation’s second longest home winning streak and will need that to continue in the Big House on Saturday to stay in contention for Indianapolis.

2012 Opponent Preview: Northwestern

Tuesday, July 10th, 2012


The fourth installment of our preseason opponent preview series brings the fourth easiest (or ninth-toughest) opponent on the schedule, the Northwestern Wildcats. Previously, we introduced, from easiest to not-so-easiest, UMass, Minnesota, and Illinois.

Overview

Northwestern is still trying to break through under Pat Fitzgerald. The former linebacker has guided the Wildcats to four straight bowl games and a 34-29 overall record over the past five seasons. He inked a 10-year deal last May, meaning he has a home in Evanston for as long as he wants. But with just 11 starters returning (five on offense, six on defense), he has his work cut out if he wants to avoid repeating last season’s disappointing losing record.

Offense

Kain Colter takes over at QB for the Wildcats

How do you progress when your quarterback, who finished his career as the all-time Division 1 leader in completion percentage and ranks in your top five in most passing categories, graduates? For Northwestern, the answer is to plug in an even more talented and versatile quarterback who already has experience.

Dan Persa completed nearly 73 percent career passes and was hyped as a Heisman Trophy contender before missing several games last season. The injury opened the door for Kain Colter to gain valuable experience. He played extended minutes in three games and finished the season with a 67 percent completion rate for 673 yards and six touchdowns to just one interception. But he did the most damage with his legs, leading the Wildcats in rushing with 654 yards and nine touchdowns. He also caught 43 passes for 466 yards and three touchdowns. This year, he gets the chance to step out of Persa’s shadow and take the reigns of the offense behind center.

Having another talented playmaker is a good place to start and Colter has one in five-star receiver Kyle Prater. The USC transfer will instantly become one of the top receivers in the Big Ten. At 6’5″ and 215 pounds, he’ll be a tough matchup for any defensive back. But he’s not the only weapon Colter will have. Receivers Demetrius Fields and Christian Jones also return, as does running back Treyvon Green who had a good freshman campaign last season. Running back Mike Trumpy returns from a torn ACL, and how well he has recovered will determine whether he’s the starter.

The big question mark offensively is the line, which struggled throughout the spring. It has to find a replacement for left tackle Al Netter and center Ben Burkett, but head coach Pat Fitzgerald loves competition and will have all summer and fall camp to determine a solid five.

Defense

Defensively, Northwestern faces some questions despite returning six starters. The line looks to be pretty good with returning ends Tyler Scott and Quentin Williams. Redshirt freshman Deonte Gibson and sophomore Chance Carter both shined in the spring game leaving many in Evanston excited about their possibilities. Similarly, the linebackers are experienced, with Damien Proby, David Nwabuisi, and four others pushing for time. Incoming freshman Ifeadi Odenigbo is one to watch. He’s a four-star from Centerville, Ohio who ranked ninth nationally at the linebacker position and held offers from Michigan, Alabama, Oklahoma, USC, Ohio State, Stanford and many more.

Date Opponent
Sept. 1 @ Syracuse
Sept. 8 Vanderbilt
Sept. 15 Boston College
Sept. 22 South Dakota
Sept. 29 Indiana
Oct. 6 @ Penn State
Oct. 13 @ Minnesota
Oct. 20 Nebraska
Oct. 27 Iowa
Nov. 10 @ Michigan
Nov. 17 @ Michigan State
Nov. 24 Illinois

The biggest are of question on the defense is the secondary, which lost three starters from the conference’s third worst pass defense. Safety Ibraheim Campbell is the only one who looks to have a starting spot secured. A host of others are battling through inexperience, poor play, and mental mistakes for the remaining spots. Corner Daniel Jones started in the Meineke Car Care Bowl, but after him, the dropoff is severe.

Special Teams

Punter Brandon Williams and kicker Jeff Budzien both return, though the latter connected on just 60 percent of his field goal attempts last season. Kick and punt returner Venric Mark is a speedy threat in the return game. His 15.9 yards per punt return led the Big Ten last season and ranked third nationally.

Outlook

All four non-conference games are winnable and then the Wildcats open conference play with Indiana, a beleaguered Penn State, and Minnesota, so they could jump out of the gates hot. But the schedule is back-loaded and with so many questions defensively and the need for playmakers to emerge on offense, six or seven wins are the most Northwestern will reach in 2012.

What it means for Michigan

The game falls late in the season, right after Michigan plays Minnesota. It’s Michigan’s first time back in Ann Arbor after road contests at Nebraska and Minnesota, so it falls in a good spot. Northwestern does get an extra week to prepare for Michigan, but it’s in the Big House. The Colter to Prater connection is worrisome, especially since Michigan doesn’t have tall defensive backs, and the Wildcats should be able to put up some points this season, but there’s no way they can slow down Michigan that late in the season. A year ago, Northwestern hung tough in the first half before Greg Mattison adjusted the defense and shut the Wildcats down in the second. This season’s game should be closer to the second half than the first.