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Posts Tagged ‘Little Brown Jug’

Michigan 35 – Minnesota 13: Gardner helps Michigan retain Jug

Sunday, November 4th, 2012


Needing a win to stay in the Big Ten title hunt, Michigan was dealt a blow when Denard Robinson was ruled out for the game. But no one told Devin Gardner that was a bad thing. After a slow start, the junior quarterback-turned-receiver-turned-quarterback put on a display that will ease concerns about next season’s quarterback situation.

Michigan 35 – Minnesota 13
Final Stats
35 Final Score 13
6-3, 4-1 Record 5-4 (1-4)
389 Total Yards 275
155 Net Rushing Yards 128
234 Net Passing Yards 147
18 First Downs 21
1 Turnovers 1
7-69 Penalties – Yards 9-68
3-88 Punts – Yards 3-127
29:08 Time of Possession 30:52
7-of-12 Third Down Conversions 4-of-14
1-of-2 Fourth Down Conversions 2-of-4
1-4 Sacks By – Yards 3-23
0-for-0 Field Goals 2-for-3
5-for-5 PATs 1-for-1
3-for-3 Red Zone Scores – Chances 3-for-4

Gardner completed 12-of-18 passes for 234 yards, two touchdowns, and an interception, leading Michigan to a 35-13 win over Minnesota. It didn’t start out positively, however, as Michigan gained just nine yards on eight plays in the first quarter.

The Gophers got the scoring started with a 10-yard touchdown pass from freshman quarterback Philip Nelson to tight end John Rabe. Michigan responded with a 12-play, 91-yard scoring drive that took seven minutes off the clock. The touchdown was a 45-yard pass from Gardner to Drew Dileo that seemed to be straight out of the playbook from a backyard football game. Gardner dropped back, stepped up, rolled to his right, then back all the way across the field to his left, and heaved it up to a wide open Dileo in the end zone.

After a Minnesota three-and-out, Gardner put together another long drive, marching 90 yards on 13 plays, capping it off with a two-yard Thomas Rawls touchdown run. It was the first time in Michigan history that the team scored touchdowns on consecutive drives of 90 yards or more, and just the third time it has ever been done in the same game.

Minnesota missed a 55-yard field goal as time expired in the first half and Michigan took a 14-7 lead into the locker room.

A Minnesota sack forced Michigan to punt away its first possession of the second half and the Gophers mounted a 10-play drive into the Michigan red zone. On fourth-and-16 from the 19-yard line, head coach Jerry Kill elected to call a fake field goal instead of kicking a 36-yarder. It failed miserably, gaining only five yards, and Michigan capitalized with an 86-yard scoring drive. Jeremy Gallon did the heavy lifting on this drive, catching a 47-yard pass and a 10-yard touchdown grab to give Michigan a 21-7 lead.

Michigan retains the Little Brown Jug for the fifth straight year (photo by Tom Olmscheid, AP)

Minnesota tried to fight back, driving to the Michigan three-yard line, but settled for a field goal to pull within 11. Michigan scored touchdowns on its next two possessions – a two-yard run by Gardner and a 41-yard run by Fitz Toussaint – to put the game away.

Toussaint led the Wolverines in rushing with 74 yards on 13 carries, but 41 of those came on that one play. Rawls had 43 yards on 16 carries for a meager 2.7 yards per. Without Gardner in the receiving corps, the receiving was well rounded. Gallon led the way with four catches for 72 yards, while Dileo had 69 and Roy Roundtree had 64.

For Minnesota, Nelson took a lot of chances downfield with little success. The best success he had was drawing a few pass interference calls against Michigan’s defensive backs late in the game. He completed 13-of-29 passes for 142 yards and a touchdown. It will likely be good enough to keep Michigan atop the national rankings in pass defense. Donnell Kirkwood rushed 16 times for just 61 yards and Michigan held the Gophers to 3.4 yards per carry.

It was a game that Michigan was supposed to win, even without Denard, and the Wolverines did just that. The talk coming out of the game will likely center around Gardner’s performance and question whether he should start the rest of the season. Any talk of that kind should stop right there. I’ll get to it more later this week and so will Chris in his weekly Monday Morning Quarterback segment, so stay tuned. But for now, enjoy the win and look forward to returning to the Big House against Northwestern next Saturday.

M&GB Pick’em: Minnesota staff predictions

Friday, November 2nd, 2012


Last week, all predictions went out the window when Denard left the game with a nerve injury to his elbow. Russell Bellomy couldn’t get anything going on offense and Michigan was held without a touchdown for the second straight week. Denard is back this week and heaven forbid he get hurt again, we should have a pretty good idea of how this game will play out.

M&GB PREDICTION SUMMARY

____________________________

Justin: Michigan 37 – Minnesota 10

Chris: Michigan 31 - Minnesota 14

Josh: Michigan N/A – Minnesota N/A

Sam: Michigan 31 – Minnesota 13

Katie: Michigan 38 – Minnesota 13

Matt: Michigan 38 – Minnesota 17

___________________________

Average: Michigan 35 – Minnesota 13

Justin (1): Michigan makes its first visit to TCF Bank Stadium for a noon (11am local time) kickoff against Minnesota. The time is important because the only chance the Gophers have of pulling this one out is if Michigan sleeps through its alarm because it’s so used to playing 3:30 (or later) games. As long as the Wolverines lay off the waffles and fake eggs from the hotel breakfast bar and come ready to play, they’ll get back on track for what is shaping up to be an epic clash with Ohio State at season’s end. But let’s not get ahead of ourselves. One game at a time.

Michigan will be, as the Black Eyed Peas sing, runnin’ runnin’ and runnin’ runnin’. Fitz Toussaint and Thomas Rawls will see lots of carries until Minnesota proves it can stop them – which the Gophers haven’t been able to do against anyone this season. Michigan will build a big lead and let Denard give way to Bellomy in a good scenario this time. For more analysis, check out this morning’s game preview, Friend vs. Foe, and Monday’s First Look.

[Edit: I should also add that the only other thing that could prevent a Michigan win is another significant injury to Denard. If that happens, all bets are off].

Michigan 37 – Minnesota 10

Chris (2): With four games left in the regular season, the Wolverines enter this game at Minnesota knowing that they need to win out and get help with a Nebraska loss in order to make it to the Big Ten Championship. However, I think that it’s important that the team not be thinking about it this way. It’s one game at a time. No scoreboard watching. Everyone does their job. Give your all EVERY play. I think if they do that, they can win these last four games and end up in Indianapolis on Dec 1.

First thing’s first though. Historically, Michigan has dominated the Golden Gophers in Minneapolis. They have won 14 straight trips there, winning by an average score of 40-13. Last time at Minnesota was back in 2008 (29-6 win). Minnesota enters the game at 5-3 (1-3 Big Ten) and are looking to become bowl eligible for the first time since 2009.

Donnell Kirkwood averages 4.4 yards per carry (photo by Jesse Johnson, AP)

Overall, this is a decent Minnesota squad that can sneak up on teams if they take them too lightly. Minnesota’s biggest weakness is their defense, especially when trying to stop the rush. In their three losses this season, they gave up big days on the ground to opposing running backs to the tune of 242 yards per game. Wisconsin’s running backs put up 337 by themselves. So far, this has been a season when Michigan has been unable to run the ball effectively with someone other than Denard Robinson. If there’s any hope for this running game, it will need to show on Saturday because it will provide the Wolverines with the best chance to win.

On offense, Minnesota has switched to true freshmen Philip Nelson at quarterback. Dynamic quarterback MarQueis Gray has been hampered by injuries this season, which prompted the switch. Just because Nelson is young and inexpereinced, the Wolverines can’t look past his skills. He earned Mr. Football honors in the state of Minnesota and they doesn’t hesitate to chuck the ball around when he’s under center. This bodes well for a Michigan pass defense which ranks as one of the best in the nation. Defensively, I don’t see the the Wolverines having much trouble. Minnesota isn’t going to control the line of scrimmage with three sophomores starting on the offensive line.

I like Michigan to win this game, but I don’t think it’s going to be by a large point differential.

Michigan 31 – Minnesota 14

Matt (2): We haven’t really taken Minnesota seriously. Overall, our record in the Battle for the Little Brown Jug, is 67-22-3. And Minnesota has only beaten us three times since 1968. However, looking past them is a big mistake.

Although the Golden Gophers seem to pale in comparison with the Wolverines, only being ranked higher than Michigan in passing by a small margin, and being ranked lower than Michigan in rushing yards, points for, and points against, the game is still being played in Minneapolis, and this is a rivalry game. You know what they say about rivalry games. Throw the records out the window.

However, is this really a rivalry? Is this anything like Michigan vs Notre Dame, Michigan State or Ohio State? The answer is simple, no. But we still want to hold onto that Little Brown Jug, and we still want to win the Legends Division, which could happen, but we need Nebraska to lose too!

Minnesota is ranked higher than Michigan in passing, although if you compare QBs, Denard has thrown over 500 yards more and three more touchdowns (that’s not counting the six Denard has scrambled in). Minnesota’s rushing game isn’t that great either, averaging 162 yards a game while Michigan averages 206.

And as far as defense goes, Michigan allows 17 points a game. Minnesota allows 23.

The biggest factor to this game, is going to be Denard Robinson. Is he going to be able to play? He left the Nebraska game with an injured nerve in his elbow. From there we got to see Russell Bellomy come in, and have a horrible game. I’m not blaming the kid. He’s new to all this. He isn’t supposed to be the starting QB. He’s supposed to watch as Denard tears defenses apart. So when Denard went down, Bellomy had that deer in the headlights look, and tried. I heard many people asking (and begging) Brady Hoke to put Devin Gardner in as QB instead. He did not.

Jerry Kill is trying to get the Gophers bowl eligible for the first time since 2009 (photo by Jesse Johnson, AP)

News at Michigan practice his week, is that Devin did however take snaps as QB, just in case Robinson doesn’t end up playing this Saturday. Maybe Hoke heard the people.

I think Denard will play this Saturday. Will he injure the elbow again? Not sure. I don’t think he’ll play all game. I think Hoke will play him, but pull him every now and again to let Devin, and maybe even Russell get some snaps (that is if the game is in hand). We really need to rely on Fitzgerald Toussaint this Saturday. Al Borges needs to let Fitz run straight at the Golden Gophers defense, and ram the ball down their throats.

I have not done the best job at guessing the score this season, but here we go…

I don’t see this one being that close. Michigan is going to take the lead, and never give it back. The Little Brown Jug will stay in Ann Arbor for another season. Denard scores a couple TDs, and so does Devin Gardner (as QB, NOT WR).

Michigan 38 – Minnesota 17

Sam (1): Michigan wins. End of story.

Michigan 31 – Minnesota 13

Katie: Last week didn’t turn out nearly as well as was hoped for, but there is a consolation, this week we play Minnesota and the poor Golden Gophers are at the bottom of the Legends Division. But hey, it could be worse, the Leaders has two teams without a Big Ten win, and Minnesota has notched a W against the Boilermakers to make them 1-3 in conference play. Michigan on the other hand is living in disappointing times. Granted, the preseason polls were overestimated, the Wolverines have still lost three games so far this season, and while that’s not quite a debacle it will be if we go 5-3 in Big Ten play. Northwestern I’m sure would love nothing more than an upset at the Big House after what will likely be a safeguarding of the Brown Jug. Not to mention Ohio State, who will welcome Michigan into the ‘Shoe for the first time since coach Urban Meyer was instated, and with a definite chip on their shoulder due to their inability to play in the conference championship or a bowl game.

I’m not trying to overlook Minnesota. Well, I suppose that’s not entirely true. I do know however, that one has to make the catch before running with it, and that the play can’t go down field until the ball is secured. Really though, did last years score against Minnesota have to look like a MAC team rollover. 58-0?

So while that sort of bullying hasn’t happened to the Gophers this year, they also have yet to play a ranked team. Though it is true that they played the Wildcats, who are now second in the Legends, within a touchdown. Now I am going to make the assumption that if we can’t beat Minnesota that the season is, for all intents and purposes, over. But on a positive note I’m not envisioning much of a problem. That is unless the offense collapses without Denard, and Devin Gardner, who could see a return at quarterback, looks worse than Bellomy. Not that the red-shirt freshman would look quite as bad as he did against Nebraska. I think that with more than a few minutes notice, and an away crowd that hasn’t been getting pumped for a night game for hours in advance, he should be able to pass more efficiently. With that being said I still would not hesitate to say that Gardner was our starting QB if number 16 wasn’t ready.

As for the stats, Minnesota’s aren’t too bad on either side of things, but they don’t look as good on paper as Michigan does, and Michigan has been fumbling around this season. The Wolverines best bet is on a strong defense that gives its offense as many opportunities to score as possible. Without Denard’s fleetness of foot Michigan could need time for some extended drives. Look for a Wolverines victory, but without last year’s margin.

Michigan 38 – Minnesota 13

Minnesota: first look

Monday, October 29th, 2012


Read our preseason preview here.

This Saturday, Michigan looks to follow up a poor performance against Nebraska with a win over Minnesota. The Gophers are currently in last place in the Big Ten Legends division, while Michigan is in a battle for first with Nebraska. At this point, every game is a must-win if Michigan wants any chance of reaching the Big Ten championship game. Minnesota, meanwhile, is still fighting for relevancy.

The Gophers picked up their first conference victory last Saturday, beating Purdue 44-28. You might remember that as being the same number of points Michigan scored on Purdue, though the Wolverines held the Boilers to just 13.

Michigan’s loss to Nebraska dropped the Wolverines to just 3-4 on the road in Brady Hoke’s tenure (not counting the neutral site loss to Alabama), so Michigan will need a win in Minneapolis to pull even in that regard. Does Minnesota have a shot at upsetting the Wolverines and dismantling their Big Ten title hopes? Or will Michigan keep those hopes alive? Let’s take a look.

Minnesota 2012 Statistics & Michigan Comparison
Minnesota Michigan Rank Opponent Rank
Points Per Game 25.2 | 28.0 82 | 63 23.1 | 17.2 43 | 14
Rushing Yards 1,303 | 1,653 1,424 | 1,161
Rush Avg. Per Game 162.9 | 206.6 61 | 27 178.0 | 145.1 84 | 46
Avg. Per Rush 4.0 | 5.2 5.0 | 3.7
Passing Yards 1,650 | 1,372 1,279 | 1,162
Pass Avg. Per Game 206.2 | 171.5 87 | 108 159.9 | 145.2 7 | 1
Total Offense 2,953 | 3,025 2,703 | 2,323
Total Off Avg. Per Game 369.1 | 378.1 88 | 83 337.9 | 290.4 27 | 9
Kick Return Average 17.5 | 22.6 109 | 52 17.0 | 21.0 7 | 60
Punt Return Average 7.9 | 10.4 69 | 39 5.1 | 6.3 30 | 54
Avg. Time of Possession 31:49 | 30:45 25 | 45 28:11 | 29:15
3rd Down Conversion Pct 39% | 47% 72 | 23 39% | 35% 61 | 37
Sacks By-Yards 16-107 | 10-95 56 | 104 12-87 | 7-55 35 | 12
Touchdowns Scored 25 | 26 24 | 14
Field Goals-Attempts 9-16 | 14-17 6-7 | 13-18
Red Zone Scores (20-26) 77% | (25-28) 89% 80 | 20 (18-21) 86% | (19-22) 86% 95 | 92
Red Zone Touchdowns (15-26) 58% | (14-28) 50% (14-21) 67% | (10-22) 45%

On paper, Michigan and Minnesota look fairly similar – at least on offense. I never thought I would utter those words in a senior Denard-led offense, but that’s where we are eight games into the season. But while they look fairly even on paper, in actuality, Michigan has faced three of the nation’s top ten scoring defenses, while the best one Minnesota has faced is Wisconsin, which ranks 17th. In fact, the average scoring defense among the teams Minnesota has played is 56th, plus the 65th ranked scoring defense in the FCS. Conversely, Michigan’s is 51st.

The main discrepancy between the two teams is on defense. Michigan boasts the nation’s ninth-best total defense, 14th-best scoring defense and top pass defense, while Minnesota has the 43rd-best scoring defense and 27th-best total defense. The biggest mismatch may be in Michigan’s rush offene, which ranks 27th against Minnesota’s rush defense, which ranks 84th.

Freshman Philip Nelson has started the last two games at QB (photo by Andy Manis, AP)

The main playmaker for the Gophers is quarterback-turned-receiver MarQueis Gray. He started the season at quarterback, but made the move to receiver in favor of Max Shortell. Shortell then gave way to freshman Philip Nelson who has started the past two games and completed 61 percent of his passes for 395 yards, five touchdowns, and two interceptions. Against Purdue on Saturday, he went 15-of-22 for 246 and three TDs.

Gray is the team’s second leading rusher (from his time at quarterback) with 320 yards on 54 attempts and has caught eight passes for 89 yards since making the move.

Running back Donnell Kirkwood has rushed 132 times for 609 yards (an average of 4.4 yards per carry) and three touchdowns, while Nelson, having played in only the last two games, has rushed for 104 yards on 25 carries.

The receiving corps is pretty much a one-man show. Junior A.J. Barker has 30 catches for 577 yards and seven touchdowns. No other Gopher has more than 13 catches or 193 yards, however, 16 different players have caught a pass and 14 of those have caught at least two. The Minnesota passing offense is sixth-best in the Big Ten, just a few yards per game behind Nebraska, so Michigan’s top-rated pass defense will have its hands full once again.

The rush offense is also sixth in the conference, averaging 162.9 yards per game, but Wisconsin and Iowa held the Gophers to just 96 and 102 rushing yards, respectively.

Defensively, Minnesota allows just 159.9 yards per game through the air, good for seventh nationally and second in the Big Ten behind Michigan, but that is largely due to the success other teams have on the ground. Iowa’s Mark Weisman rushed for 177 yards on 21 carries, Northwestern’s Venric Mark gained 182 yards on 20 carries, and Wisconsin had two ball carriers with big days – James White had 175 yards on 15 carries and Montee Ball had 166 on 24. Needless to say, Minnesota’s rush defense has been anything but stout, and that’s good news for a Michigan offense that needs to get back on track.

Another area that Michigan seems to have a major advantage is on special teams. Brendan Gibbons has been getting quite a workout the past few weeks, and hopefully Michigan won’t need him much on Saturday, but he (and Matt Wile’s) 14-of-17 rate is far and away better than Minnesota kicker Jordan Wetterstein’s 9-of-16. In addition, punter Christian Eldred ranks ninth in the conference with an average of 37.4 yards per punt compared to Will Hagerup’s conference-best 45.9.

With Nebraska facing Michigan State on Saturday, this weekend is the beginning of a must-win four-game stretch for Michigan. Stay tuned for coverage throughout the week.

Smith’s Hat Trick Leads Michigan as Jug Stays in Ann Arbor

Saturday, October 1st, 2011


For the second consecutive week Michigan got off to a strong start, scoring on its opening drive en route to a dominating victory. This time, Minnesota was the foe, and while the Gophers aren’t exactly the class of the Big Ten, no other Michigan team has ever beaten Minnesota as badly as it did today.

Vincent Smith scored a rushing touchdown, receiving touchdown, and threw a touchdown pass to lead Michigan to a 58-0 win, its first shutout since beating Notre Dame 38-0 in 2007, and its first shutout of a Big Ten opponent since a 20-0 victory over Penn State in 2001.

#19 Michigan 58 – Minnesota 0
Final Stats
58 Final Score 0
5-0 Record 1-4
580 Total Yards 177
363 Net Rushing Yards 73
217 Net Passing Yards 104
32 First Downs 8
0 Turnovers 2
3-24 Penalties – Yards 9-74
2-75 Punts – Yards 10-363
36:22 Time of Possession 23:38
6-for-11 Third Down Conversions 0-for-11
0-for-0 Fourth Down Conversions 0-for-0
3-16 Sacks By – Yards 1-8
3-for-3 Field Goals 0-for-0
7-for-7 PATs 0-for-0
8-for-9 Red Zone Scores – Chances 0-for-1

Denard Robinson hit Jeremy Gallon for nine yards to start the game. On the next play Devin Gardner came in and handed off to Denard, who then pitched it to Fitz Toussaint for a three-yard loss. Toussaint, however, made up for it two plays later when he busted through the line for a 35 yard rush. Three plays later, Vincent Smith punched it in from 3 yards out to put Michigan ahead 7-0.

After a three-and-out by Minnesota, which was forced by a third-down sack by Ryan Van Bergen, Michigan took over at its own 25. Denard drove the Wolverines 67 yards in four plays to get inside the Gopher 10. Two plays later, Denard took it in.

Minnesota suffered through another three-and-out before punting it back to Michigan. Nine plays later, two of which included a pass to Devin Gardner and a 15-yard run by Gardner, Michigan found itself in the endzone again. This time it was a Smith touchdown pass to Drew Dileo on a beautifully disguised play that had the entire state of Minnesota thinking it was a sweep play.

Minnesota managed to get their first first down of the game on its next play, but when faced with a third-and-one, took a three-yard loss when Jake Ryan sacked Max Shortell.

Michigan picked up where it left off with Fitz Touissaint rushing for 24 yards and Junior Hemingway catching a nine-yarder. After an offside penalty, Denard rolled right and found Vincent Smith wide open on a screen to the left. Smith, doing what he does best, found a seam and took it to the house from 28 yards out.

For those who haven’t been paying attention, with 9:38 left in the second quarter, Vincent Smith had a rushing TD, a passing TD and a receiving TD. Smith became the first major college running back to score on the ground, through the air as a passer and a receiver since Clemson’s C.J Spiller in 2009.

After a seven-yard rush by David Cobb, Jibreel Black introduced himself to Shortell for a sack. Black was the third Wolverine in the mix after Jake Ryan and Mike Martin laid their hands on Shortell to slow him down.

Michigan “stalled” on its next drive and settled for a Brendan Gibbons 25-yard field goal to go up 31-0.

Freshman Drew Dileo catches a touchdown pass from Vincent Smith...I think he was a tad bit open (photo by the Detroit News)

Minnesota used its next drive to march into Michigan’s side of the field for the first time (I guess the Gophers weren’t in a hurry to score). Unfortunately for them it was short-lived as Brandon Green was stripped by Blake Countess and Carvin Johnson recovered it. On the play preceding the fumble we had a Will Campbell sighting in the backfield as he bull rushed the center and laid a huge hit on Shortell as he let go of the pass. It took a bit longer than I would have liked but at least we’re beginning to see glimpses of the what the former five-star recruit can do. Hopefully he can make a habit of sitting on the quarterback a la former Wolverine Alan Branch.

Michigan proceeded to move the ball 36 yards before Denard hit a streaking Kevin Koger for a touchdown to put the Wolverines up 38-0. Minnesota ran out the clock for halftime.

Michigan outgained Minnesota 384-69 in the first half alone.

The second half was more of the same as Minnesota struggled to move the ball and Michigan moved almost at will. After Michigan scored to go up 45-0, Minnesota showed some life, taking the ensuing kick off 96 yards for a TD. However, it was called back for an illegal block and the Gophers had to punt the ball away.

The Little Brown Jug remains in Ann Arbor (photo by the Ann Arbor News)

It was at this point, a little more than midway through the third quarter, that Denard’s day was over. Devin Gardner came in and drove Michigan down to the Gopher 15 and Gibbons kicked a 32-yard field goal to put the Wolverines up 48-0.

After another Gopher three-and-out, Michigan took over on its own 20. After a mix of plays, including runs by Gardner and 38 total rushing yards on the drive by Thomas Rawls, Michigan found itself forced to kick yet another field goal. Gibbons connected on a 38-yarder and Michigan topped the 50 point mark for the first time this season.

Two drives later, after Minnesota took over in great field position, David Cobb took the hand off and ran 28 yards to the Michigan 20. It appeared as if the Gophers would finally get on the scoreboard. Cobb took the ensuing hand off and ran right, but Michigan defensive lineman Nathan Brink came from behind and popped the ball out. It bounced right into the hands of Courtney Avery who took it to the house for an 83 yard fumble return TD. 58-0.

Minnesota went three-and-out its next drive and Michigan ran out the final 3:09 of the game. Rawls grabbed another 34 yards rushing and Gardner added another 15 to his total as well.

Denard was 15-for-19 for 169 yards, 2 touchdowns and most importantly, no interceptions. He also added another 51 on the ground and a rushing tuchdown.

Fitz Touissaint rushed for a career high 108 yards on 11 carries and a touchdown and true freshman Thomas Rawls gained 73 on 10 carries.

All-in-all, it was a great day to be a Wolverine. While Minnesota is not the cream of the crop by any stretch Michigan still showed significant improvement. The defense was getting good pressure and didn’t seem to be out of place too often. Borges finally got really creative with his play-calling and put Denard and the offense in position to make some nice, easy throws. There weren’t many down-field tosses by Denard, but he managed the passing game well and should have gained some confidence in his arm and decision making ability as Michigan heads to Evanston, Ill. next week to take on Northwestern.

Friday Pick’em – Minnesota Staff Predictions

Friday, September 30th, 2011


Last week, we all underestimated Michigan’s defense and overestimated both offenses. We all predicted high-scoring games, but in reality, Michigan dominated, holding San Diego State’s high-powered offense to just seven points.  Josh was the closest, just three off Michigan’s score and 20 high on SDSU’s, so he wins the Kyle Turley SI and the Indian healing clay. Lucky him.

This week, the winner gets this singing and dancing gopher (because really, is anyone actually intimidated by a gopher?) and a brown jug so he can paint his own Little Brown Jug replica.

The Picks:

Photo credit: MVictors

Justin: This game has all the makings of a blowout. With quarterback MarQueis Gray out with a toe injury, Minnesota will rely on true freshman Max Shortell. He has seen action in three of the first four games, but tomorrow will be his first career start. In the Big House no less. While it won’t be as rocking as it was for the Under the Lights game against Notre Dame, it’s still an intimidating place to play for an opposing team, especially for a kid who was going to prom a few months ago.

Minnesota has a fairly stout run defense, but is giving up 278.5 yards a game through the air. This will be the perfect game to allow Denard Robinson to gain some confidence with his arm and some rapport with his receivers before diving into the meat of the schedule.

Without Gray, Minnesota is lacking a true playmaker on offense – certainly one that can hang with Michigan. The Gophers have recorded one sack defensively and allowed 11. This one will be over early, Denard will have another 150-150 game, and Devin Gardner will get some playing time in the fourth quarter.

Michigan 42 – Minnesota 17

Josh: Minnesota opened the season looking like a pretty good team, rallying from a 13-0 deficit before eventually losing 19-17 at USC. After that, the Gophers proceeded to lose 28-21 to a New Mexico State team that went 1-11 last season, and last week suffered a shocking loss to FCS North Dakota State 37-24. Sandwiched between their last two losses was a 29-23 win over Miami (OH). Their quarterbacks have combined for five touchdowns and five picks and are completing less than 49 percent of their passes.

Minnesota has given up 400-plus yards twice, to New Mexico St. and Miami (OH), and gave up 300-plus yards passing to USC and Miami (OH). Their rush yards against look good on paper but considering they’ve allowed teams to pass for over 278 yards per game, the rush defense probably hasn’t been tested all that much. Regardless, Minnesota is not a very good team on defense giving up 383 yards per game overall.

On offense they have managed to put up some yards, averaging 353 yards per game, but have yet to find an identity at quarterback. MarQueis Gray is most likely out this week so Minnesota will have to rely on Max Shortell to lead them. They have had a balanced attack on offense so far, but like Michigan are very reliant on one player to produce the bulk of the yards. Gray accounts for 218 of their 353 yards per game (61.7 percent). With Gray out, this will hurt Minnesota tremendously, so don’t look for them to top 300 yards again.

Michigan is 19-1 against Minnesota in its last 20, and has only lost to the Gophers twice since 1986. The teams haven’t played the past two years but if the 2008 Michigan team can beat them using a non-spread quarterback to run the read option, then this team certainly can manage a win. The defense should be able to get some good pressure to force Shortell into some bad decisions and since he is not a threat to run like Gray is Michigan should be able to contain the Gopher offense.

Freshman Max Shortell has completed 46 percent of his passes for 2 touchdowns and 2 interceptions while filling in for MarQueis Gray (photo by Stephen Dunn, Getty Images)

There have been notable improvements for Michigan each week on defense and this game should be no different. Look for Michigan to force a few turnovers and to capitalize on most of them. On offense, look for offensive coordinator Al Borges to try to work out some of the kinks in the passing game and maybe run more under center stuff to help Denard get more comfortable. Minnesota will almost assuredly stack the box to ’stop’ the run, which should open up some space downfield. Despite that, I still think Michigan will rack up 175-plus yards rushing. This one will be a good game until shortly after kick off. Hopefully some of the younger guys and Devin Gardner can see some mop up duty late in the game.

Michigan 49 – Minnesota 6

Chris: I have been dreading this all week: making my pick for Week 5 and at the same time knowing that I was going to have to eat major crow for picking against the Wolverines last week.

So here it is. I screwed up. I admit it. I doubted our defense’s ability to contain the San Diego State offense. I didn’t think that the Michigan offense could out-score SDSU to win the game. Boy was I wrong.

Last week was the best that I have seen the Michigan boys play all year so far. The defense was way better than I anticipated, coming up with some big turnovers. Of course, I was glad to get the pick wrong and slightly ashamed for my lack of faith in our guys. But I do know how to admit when I was wrong.

Now on to Week 5. Short prediction this week as I’m writing this while sitting next to a pool in Phoenix mentally preparing to take on TPC Scottsdale tomorrow morning.

Bottom line: Minnesota doesn’t have enough on offense or defense to compete with the Wolverines. Denard Robinson will get an opportunity to do some things through the air against a weak Minnesota secondary and I expect the offense to move the ball at will.

Defensively, Minnesota quarterback MarQueis Gray presents a challenge (if he plays) because of his ability to run the ball, but all the Michigan coaches need to do is look at last week’s film versus FCS North Dakota State. They held Gray to 23 yards on 13 carries. If he doesn’t play, freshman Max Shortell will have his hands full with Michigan’s pass rush.

There will be some emotion in this game as it is a rivalry game, but Michigan wins to open up conference play on the right foot.

Michigan 31 – Minnesota 10

Michigan Man 5-Spot Challenge – Week 5 Questions

Monday, September 26th, 2011


Congratulations to last week’s winner, myrick55. His highest deviation was just 29 (on Ronnie Hillman’s rushing yards). He was only six away from correctly picking Denard’s total yards, which is where most other contestants gained a lot of points (remember, this is like golf: low score wins).

Only one person, bluwolf77, correctly guessed Michigan’s first quarter points. Surprisingly, nobody picked Michigan to score no points in the first quarter, even though the Wolverines hadn’t scored a first quarter point in the first three games. TrueBlue88 was the most confident, picking Michigan to win by 18. Only one, chris12qb, actually picked Michigan to lose (by one).

Myrick55 gets to relive the thrilling comeback win over Notre Dame with a commemorative Under the Lights game program. It comes with a “never-before-heard 30-second compilation of TV, radio and sideline clips from Howard’s famous 1991 touchdown catch against Notre Dame.”

This week, Michigan hosts its fifth consecutive home game when Minnesota invades Ann Arbor. The Wolverines will be looking to hold onto the Little Brown Jug against the 1-3 Gophers. Minnesota features one of the nation’s worst pass defenses and the nation’s eighth-best punter. Here are this week’s questions: