For the past four years the Paul Bunyan trophy has resided in East Lansing. Tonight the rightful owners of this storied trophy have brought him back to Ann Arbor, where he belongs. Michigan State has recently enjoyed the upper hand in the rivalry, though wins against Rich Rod’s inept ‘defenses’ don’t really count in my book, but Michigan has regained some of its swagger and put Little Brother back in its place.

#23 Michigan 12 – Michigan State 10
	Final Stats
12	Final Score	10
5-2, 3-0	Record	4-4, 1-3
326	Total Yards	304
163	Net Rushing Yards	112
163	Net Passing Yards	192
16	First Downs	16
1	Turnovers	1
6-55	Penalties – Yards	7-50
7-295	Punts – Yards	7-290
28:34	Time of Possession	31:26
5-of-15	Third Down Conversions	6-of-17
0-of-0	Fourth Down Conversions	1-of-1
1-10	Sacks By – Yards	0-0
4-for-4	Field Goals	1-for-2
0-for-0	PATs	1-for-1
2-for-2	Red Zone Scores – Chances	2-for-2

If you had told me last week that Michigan would not put the ball in the end zone, I would have told you there is no way they win. Yet, that is exactly what happened. A classic Big Ten defensive battle that ended with a Brendan Gibbons game winning field goal with only seconds remaining. Drew Dileo was the unlikely hero, having his hands on all 12 Wolverines points, as he is the holder for field goals. He finished with four catches for 92 yards, the final yards coming on a 20-yard reception to set up the game winning field goal on a second and long attempt as time was ticking away.

Michigan State played better than expected on offense and kept the Wolverines on their heels, mostly with the passing game. Andrew Maxwell played well, hitting 21-of-34 passes for 192 yards, adding a pick and a touchdown. Le’Veon Bell toted the rock 26 times for 68 yards, a lowly 2.6 yards per carry average. Freshman Aaron Burbridge has stepped up recently and continued to be the de facto number one receiver for Maxwell. He led the Spartans with six catches for 51 yards.

Denard Robinson looked bad on the ground for most of the game, but came up with plays when he needed to. He was just shy of 100 yards rushing and added 163 in the air. He did throw a pick, but it was meaningless as it was the final play of the first half. Fitz Toussaint was bottled up most of the day and finished with 52 yards on 10 carries. However, 38 of those came on one big run early in the second quarter which set up their first score. Surprisingly, Thomas Rawls did not see any action.

Sparty’s plan all game was to focus on shutting down Denard – shocking, I know. But the way they did it makes me concerned for the rest of the season. They simply forced Denard into keeping the ball on the zone read but spying him all along and leaving him no room. Aside from a 44-yard burst, he was kept in check.

The two teams battled back and forth, and with Michigan up 9-7 early in the fourth quarter, MSU fumbled the ball on a Le’Veon Bell carry. The Spartans recovered but it seemed as though they were all but dead as they were forced to punt. Mark Dantonio, however, had different plans as he faked the punt and MSU continued to march down the field. Eighteen plays, 90 yards and almost eight minutes later, the Spartans added a field goal to go up 10-9.

Brendan Gibbons nailed the game-winner with five seconds left (photo by the Detroit News)

Michigan got the ball back and looked to be in business as Denard busted off his 44-yard run on second down, but then things went downhill. Toussaint lost a few on a run play, then two consecutive penalties put the Wolverines in a 3rd-and-22. Michigan punted the ball away with just over three minutes to go. If the Spartans added even just a field goal, it would force Michigan into needing a touchdown to win.

Thankfully, Sparty threw two incomplete passes then Jake Ryan forced a fumble on third down. MSU did recover but was forced to punt. Michigan got the ball on its own 38 with two minutes to play – plenty of time for Denard to work some late game magic, and he did just that. After moving the ball to the State 41, Michigan was facing a 2nd-and-11. Denard found an open Dileo for a 20-yard strike to set up the game winning field goal, a 38-yarder from Gibbons. Sparty attempted a Stanford-Cal moment in the final seconds but they were not so lucky.

Michigan ended its losing streak to Little Brother and added win number 900 in the process. Not a bad way to reach that milestone. Michigan stands atop the Legends division and controls its own fate going forward. Every other team has one loss, and unless something crazy happens, Michigan should be looking at a match up with Wisconsin in Indianapolis come December.

That said, Michigan does have to travel to Nebraska next week and ends the season in that city in Ohio which is a tough place to play. Regardless, this team takes it one week at a time and they know Nebraska will be looking to avenge the blowout loss to Michigan in 2011.

Nebraska is an interesting team, having lost to UCLA, beaten Wisconsin and got throttled by Ohio State. This weekend, the Cornhuskers rallied to beat Northwestern 29-28 behind Taylor Martinez’s 342 yards and 3 touchdowns. They are, however, a run heavy team, averaging a monstrous 292 yards rushing per game and putting up almost 44 points per game. Martinez has been known to be either hot or cold so who knows what we’ll see next week in Lincoln. But rest assured, Michigan had better bring its A-game to stop this rushing attack.

Michigan is a talented team but they haven’t shown particularly well against tough, physical teams lately. It wouldn’t surprise me if they ran away with the Big Ten title or if they suffered a couple more losses going forward. Al Borges’ play calling hasn’t instilled enough confidence in me to choose one way or the other. But what I do know is that this team has a lot of heart and they are not going to quit when things get tough, and I guess that’s all you can ask of any team, to give it their all every game.

The last time Michigan played an away night game it was an epic game. This may not be as down to the wire, but it should be a good one nonetheless. Michigan should win, and I’ll give a score during our weekly staff predictions next Friday.

We all know the well-worn refrain about little brothers by now. Whether the statement made by Mike Hart following Michigan’s win in 2007 had anything to do with the following four years or not, the simple fact of the matter is that Michigan State has controlled the rivalry since then. It has certainly been quite a ride for our brethren to the northwest to the point that our green friends starting to forget that the first 100 years of the rivalry even occurred. But they did and Michigan hopes this is the year things get back on track.

Michigan State comes limping into Ann Arbor following a 19-16 double-overtime loss to Iowa, the Spartans third loss of the season so far. Their Big Ten title hopes are slim to none at this point and a loss to Michigan would essentially eliminate them from contention.

On the other hand, Michigan won its first two conference games in convincing fashion, outscoring Purdue and Illinois 89-13 and outgaining them 936-347. That Michigan’s defense has stepped up since the first two weeks of the season (it gave up 66 points to Alabama and Air Force but just 32 in the four games since) doesn’t bode well for Michigan State’s offense which ranks 104th nationally, and second to last in the Big Ten, in scoring.

So will Michigan end State’s four year run or will it continue? Let’s take a look at the matchups.

When Michigan State has the ball

The Spartans average just 21 points per game despite playing three teams (Central Michigan, Eastern Michigan, and Indiana) that rank 92nd or worse in scoring defense. The 23 points State scored on Eastern Michigan are fewer than Ball State, Illinois State, Purdue, Kent State, and Toledo each scored on the Eagles.

Despite the offensive ineptitude, quarterback Andrew Maxwell has shown flashes of promise. Against Indiana, he completed 24-of-40 passes for 290 yards and two touchdowns. But he’s also been inconsistent. Last week, he completed just 12-of-31 passes for 179 yards and an interception. On the season, he’s completing 54.3 percent of his passes (half a percentage point worse than Denard Robinson) for 1,607 yards, six touchdowns, and four interceptions. He has thrown the ball an average of 37 times a game, compared to Denard’s 21.

One of his main problems has been inconsistency from his receiving targets. The leading receiver is Keith Mumphrey who has 25 receptions for 330 yards and a touchdown. Tight end Dion Sims is close behind with 24 for 313 and two touchdowns. Sims is listed as questionable with a left ankle injury, but if I had to bet on it, I’d say he’ll play. Bennie Fowler (20, 257, 2), Aaron Burbridge (15, 237), and Tony Lippett (19, 205) all have over 200 yards as well. Burbridge has been a pleasant surprise for Maxwell the past two weeks, catching 13 passes for 223 yards against Indiana and Iowa.

LeVeon Bell is the Spartans' workhorse that Michigan will need to stop

Of course, the running game is where the Spartans want to do the most damage and they have one of the best backs in the conference in LeVeon Bell. He’s been a workhorse so far this season, carrying the ball 200 times for 916 yards and eight touchdowns, an average of 4.6 yards per carry. He was a one-man show against Boise State and Eastern Michigan, toting the ball 80 times for 463 yards and three touchdowns in those two games alone. Michigan held him to his lowest total of the season (seven carries for 20 yards) last year, though his then-backfield mate Edwin Baker did the damage.

The offensive line has been a MASH unit for most of the season. Center Travis Jackson broke his leg and right tackle Fou Fonoti has a stress fracture. Guard Blake Treadwell is also recovering from an injury. It’s a unit that’s starting five won’t be solidified until gametime and will have the task of dealing with Michigan’s emerging defensive line.

When Michigan has the ball

Michigan State’s defense was expected to be the cream of the crop in the Big Ten this season, and possibly one of the best in the country. Through the first seven games, it has been very good, but not nearly what everybody expected. The loss of tackle Jerel Worthy leaves the defensive line without a proven anchor. James Kittredge and Anthony Rashad White have been okay at the position, but haven’t had near the impact Worthy did. The pair has combined for 22 tackles and 3.5 tackles for loss. Even so, the Spartans rush defense ranks eighth nationally, allowing just 91.3 yards per game.

The defensive ends and linebackers are the team’s strengths. Every Michigan fan is well aware of end William Gholston, but more for his hype and dirty antics in last year’s game than for his actual performance. So far this season, the junior has just five tackles for loss and one sack. His counterpart, Marcus Rush, has similar production with 4.5 tackles for loss and one sack. That’s not great production for a front four that was dominant last season.

I mentioned a minute ago that the Spartans rush defense has been stout this season, but against Ohio State, a similar offense to Michigan’s, State gave up 204 yards on the ground. Braxton Miller accounted for 136 of those on 5.9 yards per carry. The main reason State was so successful defensively last season is Worthy’s presence in the middle, allowing the rest of the front seven to get into the backfield, harass the quarterbacks, and make plays resulting in negative yardage. In last year’s matchup, MSU recorded seven sacks for 62 yards, keeping Michigan on its heels. So far this season, State has recorded just six sacks through seven games.

The linebacking corps is a good one though, led by junior middle linebacker Max Bullough who leads the team with 58 tackles and 5.5 tackles for loss, and Denicos Allen who ranks second in tackles with 42 and also has a sack. Chris Norman, who started last year and began this season as a starter, was benched in favor of Taiwan Jones.

The secondary has three returning starters from last season, most notably corners Johnny Adams and Darqueze Dennard. Neither has an interception yet, but both are solid corners. Safety Isaiah Lewis also returns,while Kurtis Drummond will get the start this week at the other safety spot. While State’s rush defense is stout, its pass defense is pretty good too, ranking 17th nationally.

The other third

Kicker Dan Conroy is as experienced as there is in the Big Ten. The third-year starter is 14-for-19 so far this season with a long of 50. He has made 79 percent of his field goals throughout his career. Punter Mike Sadler averages 43.9 yards per punt, which is second only to Will Hagerup. In the return game, MSU ranks around the middle of the pack nationally in both areas. Sophomore running back Nick Hill handles both duties, averaging 22.3 yards per kick return and 8.9 yards per punt return.

By comparison, Dennis Norfleet is averaging 23.6 per kick return, and that’s an area to watch on Saturday. Michigan State’s kick coverage unit ranks 111th nationally, giving up 26.23 yards per kick return.

Prediction

I actually have a good feeling about this one. Maybe it’s because I’ve watched most of every Michigan State game this season and haven’t been overly impressed. Maybe it’s because I watched Braxton Miller and Ohio State run all over them. Maybe I’m just overly optimistic this week. Regardless, this is going to be the year Denard finally breaks out and has a big game against the team that has bottled him up for the past two years. Look for a diversive offense aimed at taking advantage of MSU’s defensive aggressiveness. Screens like what we saw against Illinois last week can and will result in big gains.

Michigan’s pass defense will be tested by a downfield passing game for the first time since Alabama. We’ll get a chance to see how well the front seven has really improved at getting pressure on the quarterback, as well as whether the secondary that ranks in the top ten nationally is as good as its stats. But that’s not how State will try to beat Michigan. It will be with the run game and it will run Bell until he stops ringing. If Michigan can’t stop the run game, it will be a long day, but if the Wolverines are stopping Bell at the point of attack and forcing MSU to throw, it will be successful.

Michigan should be able to win the battle against State’s banged up offensive line, so I’m hopeful that Bell can be neutralized. So it will come down to whether Michigan can move the ball against State’s stout defense, and the success of OSU/Miller, as well as Iowa’s Weisman last week, gives me hope. If the weather forecast holds up without rain or wind, Michigan’s offense should be able to move the ball as it has all season. Hello 900 club, party of one.

Michigan 24 – Michigan State 13

Read our preseason preview here.

There’s no denying the fact that Michigan State has had Michigan’s number the past few years. The Spartans were expected to be the class of the Big Ten once again this season with a dominant defense, but they enter this weekend’s matchup with three losses, two of them in conference. Those three losses were to Notre Dame (20-3), Ohio State (17-16), and Iowa (19-16 in double overtime). With the conference title likely out of reach, Michigan State will come to Ann Arbor looking to spoil Michigan’s chances. Can they? Let’s take a look.

Entering the season, Michigan State’s defense was expected to be the best in the Big Ten and one of the top nationally. Everybody knew the Spartans offense would regress a little bit with the loss of quarterback Kirk Cousins and receivers B.J. Cunningham and Keshawn Martin. Well, the offense has trouble scoring and the defense has been good, but not great.

Led by quarterback Andrew Maxwell, Michigan State ranks 102nd nationally in points per game with just 21. The Spartans have scored more than 23 just twice – 41 against Central Michigan and 31 against Indiana – and have been held to 20 or fewer points four times.

No words necessary

Maxwell has thrown the ball a lot in the first half of the season. His fewest number of passes in a game were 29 against Eastern Michigan and he has chucked up 40 or more passes three times. Despite ranking second in the Big Ten in passing yards per game, Maxwell doesn’t make the top ten in pass efficiency. His completion percentage is a half percentage point worse than Denard’s (54.3) and he has just six touchdowns and four interceptions.

The running game is a one-man show with LeVeon Bell, who has rushed for 916 yards on 200 carries (4.6 yards per carry). In the season opener, he carried the ball 44 times for 210 yards, and in Week 4 against Eastern Michigan, he toted it 36 times for 253. Aside from those two games, whose rush defenses rank 66th and 120th, respectively, Bell has averaged just 3.7 yards per carry. He ranks second in the Big Ten in rushing average behind Denard, but has carried the ball 99 more times and accumulated just 112 more yards.

Defensively, Michigan State has been solid, but not nearly the level it was expected to be. The loss of defensive tackle Jerel Worthy has been felt more than anticipated as the Spartans have just six sacks, which is last in the Big Ten. But they’re still giving up just 15.7 points per game and have the conference’s top rush defense. State has held four of its opponents to 72 or fewer total rushing yards, but two of the last three (Ohio State and Iowa) have averaged 163.5 yards per game and featured 100-yard rushers in Braxton Miller and Iowa’s Mark Weisman – the most relevant being Miller who is similar to Denard. He carried the ball 23 times for 136 yards (an average of 5.9 yards per carry) and also completed 16-of-23 passes for 179 yards and a touchdown. That along should give Michigan confidence heading into Saturday’s battle.

The defensive leader when it comes to hype is William Gholston. You will remember him for his dirty antics depicted above in last season’s matchup. However, he has just 28 tackles, five for loss, and one sack this season.

Last season, Michigan got the Ohio State monkey off its back, and this weekend, the Wolverines have a chance to end Michigan State’s four-game streak. It won’t be easy, but Michigan State has already lost three times this season and is more beatable than any of us thought they would be before the season started. Stay tuned for much more coverage the rest of the week.

Michigan has the unique position of having three big rivals. Most teams only have one rival to get up for, but year-in and year-out, Michigan has three. While we, as fans, hate each of these teams, we carry some respect for them. Michigan State and Ohio State carry conference affiliation ties while Notre Dame, well, we all just put up with them. All season long, it’s fun to keep track of how each of them doing, but there’s only so much time on Saturday to watch games. More often than not, they play at the same time Michigan does so you don’t get a chance to do your “advanced scouting.” Well, don’t fret because we’ve got you covered. This weekly feature will give you an overview of Notre Dame, Michigan State, and Ohio State’s games the previous weekend and a look ahead to the upcoming one.

#21 Michigan State 23 – Eastern Michigan 7
Record: 3-1
This Week: Home vs. #14 Ohio State (4-0) – 3:30pm – ABC

The Spartans faced a trap game, sandwiched in between a tough loss to Notre Dame and the impending matchup with Ohio State. But a winless Eastern Michigan squad shouldn’t have put up much of a fight, right? Wrong. It was the Spartans that didn’t put up much of a fight – at least for three quarters of the game.

Mark Dantonio can't be happy about the way the Spartans are playing, but is he ever happy? (photo by Al Goldis, AP)

Eastern held a 7-3 halftime lead before MSU kicked a pair of field goals to take a 9-7 lead with 1:11 remaining in the third. The fourth quarter was all Spartans as Dion Sims caught a 10-yard touchdown pass from Andrew Maxwell and Le’Veon Bell ran in a 1-yarder with two minutes left to seal the deal.

Bell continued the season-long trend as being the Spartans’ only offense. This time he carried the ball 36 times for a career high 253 yards and a touchdown. The fact that it took that kind of performance to beat Eastern Michigan is the main takeaway. Michigan State’s defense was stout as usual, holding EMU to just 183 total yards – the fourth straight opponent the Spartans have held under 300 – but that should be expected against a team that ranks near the very bottom nationally in every offensive category.

Maxwell completed 16 of 29 passes for 159 yards, the majority of the yardage coming in the fourth quarter. The touchdown pass to Sims with 7:19 remaining in the game ended a seven quarter streak without a touchdown dating back to the previous week’s 20-3 loss to Notre Dame. It was the closest loss the Eagles have had against a ranked team since losing to Ball State by 16 points in 2008.

This Week:

Michigan State hosts Ohio State in a cross-division battle of traditional heavyweights. ESPN’s College Game Day will be live from East Lansing in what is sure to be a raucous atmosphere. Last season was a defensive struggle as Michigan State pulled it out 10-7 in Columbus. Ohio State’s lone score of the game was a 33-yard touchdown pass with 10 seconds remaining. This year, Ohio State is virtually a one-man show with Braxton Miller and he will have to face MSU’s stingy defense.

Prediction: Ohio State 17 –  Michigan State 13

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#16 Ohio State 29 – UAB 15
Record: 4-0
This Week: at #20 Michigan State (3-1) – 3:30pm – ABC

For the second straight week, Ohio State struggled against an inferior opponent. Perhaps the Buckeyes were looking ahead to the trip to East Lansing, but the winless Blazers shouldn’t have been anywhere close to the Bucks.

UAB got on the board first, returning a blocked punt for a touchdown, but missed the subsequent extra point. A 47-yard field goal early in the second quarter put the Blazers ahead 9-0, but Ohio State answered with an eight-play, 75-yards scoring drive to pull within two. UAB responded with another field goal to take a 12-7 lead, but once again Ohio State came right back, this time with a four-play, 63-yard touchdown drive. On the drive, Miller connected on passes of six, 20, and 25 yards before rushing it in from 12 yards out to put the Buckeyes ahead for good. After a UAB fumble, Ohio State scored in three plays to put the game away just before the half.

UAB's blocked punt resulted in their lone touchdown (photo by Kirk Irwin, Getty Images)

UAB opened the second half by recovering an onside kick, but failed to do anything with it and neither team did anything the rest of the third quarter. On UAB’s first possession of the fourth, the Blazers kicked another field goal to pull within 21-15 and forced an Ohio State punt to get the ball back with a chance to take the lead. But a 47-yard field goal was missed and OSU marched down the field for the game-clinching touchdown.

UAB outgained the Buckeyes 403 to 347 and held the ball for over 33 minutes, but just like last week against Cal, Ohio State found a way to win. Miller went 12-for-20 for 143 yards and carried the ball 11 times for 64 yards and two touchdowns. Perhaps most importantly for the Buckeyes, running back Jordan Hall, who returned from injury, rushed for 105 yards, averaging 6.2 yards per carry. If he can do so against Michigan State’s defense this week, folks should take notice.

This Week:

Ohio State travels to Michigan State in the battle of underperforming rivals. Both feature one-man-show offenses, but Ohio State’s is arguably better because it’s less one-dimensional. Michigan State has the better defense and it will be interesting to see if the Spartans are able to bottle up Miller like they did to Denard Robinson last season. Regardless, a low scoring game should be expected and an Ohio State win would help Michigan in the conference.

Prediction: Ohio State 17 – Michigan State 13

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#11 Notre Dame 13 – #18 Michigan 6
Record: 4-0
This Week: Bye

We don’t need to relive what happened last Saturday, but we can talk about what happened right before the game and was revealed earlier this week. Dave Brandon revealed that Notre Dame has opted to discontinue the series effective following the 2014 game. I, for one, love the yearly battle with the Irish and wish it would continue every year. Regardless of how good each team is, it serves an early season measuring stick before conference play begins and it gives us fans a game to get excited about early on. But now it appears it will be put on hold for at least six seasons. The contract was set to take a three-year break after 2017, but ND athletic director Jack Swarbrick served Brandon the divorce papers three years early.

It leaves Michigan scrambling for an opponent for 2015, 16, and 17 at a time when most schools have at least the 2015 schedules in place. MGoBlog put together a nice breakdown of potential opponents to fill those slots. Oregon is intriguing, although Michigan just played, and got beat by, the Ducks a few years ago. Auburn or Georgia would be fun since they’re SEC schools, and a Oklahoma State home and home would be fun to watch as well. None of the other possibilites do much for me. I would love to see matchups with Florida State, Clemson, LSU, or Tennessee, but as Brian points out, they’re pretty much full at this point.

To hell with Notre Dame.

Michigan has the unique position of having three big rivals. Most teams only have one rival to get up for, but year-in and year-out, Michigan has three. While we, as fans, hate each of these teams, we carry some respect for them. Michigan State and Ohio State carry conference affiliation ties while Notre Dame, well, we all just put up with them. All season long, it’s fun to keep track of how each of them doing, but there’s only so much time on Saturday to watch games. More often than not, they play at the same time Michigan does so you don’t get a chance to do your “advanced scouting.” Well, don’t fret because we’ve got you covered. This weekly feature will give you an overview of Notre Dame, Michigan State, and Ohio State’s games the previous weekend and a look ahead to the upcoming one.

Notre Dame 20 – Purdue 17
Record: 2-0
This week: At #10 Michigan State (2-0) – 8pm – ABC

Unlike last week, Notre Dame did not dominate its opponent this past weekend. In fact, the Irish were almost downed at home against an underrated Purdue squad. It took a near-last second field goal to surpass the Boilers, after being led down the field by backup quarterback Tommy Rees on the last possession.

Everett Golson got the nod as the starter but apparently Brian Kelly said if it came down to it, Tommy Rees would be their “closer.” His strategy worked this time, but whether he employs this method going forward is yet to be determined. Rotating quarterbacks has its benefits and its drawbacks, so we’ll keep an eye on this as well.

Golson played a great game, going 21-for-31 for 289 yards and a touchdown. The rushing game didn’t produce much as they only managed 52 yards for the game.

Down 17-7 heading into the fourth quarter, Purdue managed to tie up the game with just over two minutes remaining before Rees led the game winning drive. Purdue only managed 288 yards of offense and turned the ball over twice but they still look like a legit Big Ten team and not one we should overlook. They could be another “trap” game, as Michigan heads to West Lafayette the week after doing battle in South Bend.

Photo by Jonathan Daniel, Getty Images

Something of note, perhaps, is that Notre Dame has only two turnovers so far this season, compared to the ten they had after two games last season.

This week:

Michigan State and Notre Dame square off in East Lansing this weekend in what could be a really good game. MSU’s stout defense will try to give Notre Dame all they can handle, and the Spartan rushing attack will try to take some pressure off a less than stellar Andrew Maxwell. The two-headed QB “monster” of Everett Golson and Tommy Rees look to lead the Irish to victory in hostile territory, perhaps employing another “closer” QB strategy for another game winning drive late in the fourth quarter.

On paper, these teams’ offenses are evenly matched. Michigan State enjoys a slight edge in the rushing category but both teams average over 170 yards. On defense, however, Michigan State is the superior team and could have a field day against the Irish offensive line that was pushed around by Purdue last week. Notre Dame will need to have a perfect game up front, on both sides of the ball, if they want to leave East Lansing 3-0.

Everett Golson will most likely get the starting nod again, but Tommy Rees has much more experience and ‘poise,’ and it wouldn’t surprise me if he came in much sooner than the fourth quarter. It is yet to be seen whether Tyler Eifert will be ready after suffering what was being called a mild concussion last week. Eifert’s status, and effectiveness, will be a huge part of whether Notre Dame can win this game. I expect Notre Dame to play a balanced game on offense and stack the box on defense and try to force Andrew Maxwell to beat them through the air. If they can force some third and long situations and make Michigan State pass the ball, they stand a good chance of pulling off the upset.

Michigan State will look to run the ball and run it a lot. I’m not sure they will give Le’Veon Bell another 40-plus carry night but he should tote the rock a lot more than he did last week. On defense, the Spartans will no doubt employ multiple looks and try to get after whichever quarterback is out there. After a subpar performance against the Purdue defensive front I’m not so sure Notre Dame can handle this Spartan front seven. If Michigan State controls the line and runs the ball well they will win. And I fully expect them to do so.

Prediction: Michigan State 24 – Notre Dame 14

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#11 Michigan State 41 – Central Michigan 7
Record: 2-0
This week: Home vs. #20 Notre Dame (2-0) – 8pm – ABC

The Spartans probably marched into Mount Pleasant not expecting much of a fight from the Chippewas, and they were right. MSU won the game convincingly, 41-7, scoring all 41 before Central scored on an interception return late in the game. MSU has yet to give up an offensive touchdown this season. Yes, it is early but it is something to keep an eye on nonetheless. The defense is definitely this team’s calling card and it will be interesting to see how they fare as the season progresses and their opponents become more formidable.

Photo by Rey DelRio, MSU

Showing that the Spartans are not a one-dimensional team, Andrew Maxwell threw for 275 yards on 20-for-31 with 2 touchdowns and no interceptions. In total, MSU threw for 322 yards total and the rushing game added another 173 yards, led by Le’Veon Bell’s ‘meager’ 70 yards and 2 touchdowns.

Central Michigan couldn’t get anything going on offense and finished 17-for-38 passing for 173 yards and two interceptions.

I’m sure we all thought MSU’s defense would be dominant coming into the year but they’ve looked better than many, myself included, expected. The Spartans are clearly one of the favorites, along with Michigan, to contend for the Legends Division this year and look to be every bit as good on defense as they were last year. Thankfully, we get to play them in the friendly confines of the Big House.

This week:

See above
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#14 Ohio State 31 – Central Florida 16
Record: 2-0
This week: Home vs. California (1-1) – 12pm – ABC

Ohio State battled Central Florida on Saturday afternoon, and up until the second half it looked like UCF might pull off the upset. However, OSU scored right before the half to go up 17-10 and scored two more touchdowns in a matter of minutes during the third, the second of which was set up by an interception from Etienne Sabino. Once again, it was the Braxton Miller show as he ran for 141 yards and three touchdowns on 27 carries, while adding 155 yards, one touchdown, and one interception on 18-of-24 passing.

On defense, OSU gave up 249 yards and two touchdowns on 25-of-41 passing. They also intercepted UCF three times which made up for their one pick thrown and two lost fumbles. OSU is beginning to look rather one-dimensional as Miller is the only guy who can ever get things going, at least so far. As we know all too well, it is tough when your team relies to heavily on its quarterback to do everything for you. But they better turn it around quick or Urban Meyer might find himself needing more “family time” as he did at Florida when things got tough.

Photo by Jay LaPrete, AP

This week:

California travels to Columbus this weekend, and unless they find a way to get Aaron Rodgers and Desean Jackson back in Bears’ uniforms, I don’t think they’ll be leaving home with the win. After losing to Nevada in Week 1, Cal beat Southern Utah (FCS) 50-31 last week to even their record at 1-1. The Bears gave up almost 300 yards and four touchdowns through the air to the Thunderbirds, and 230 and 220 passing and rushing, respectively, to Nevada in their opener. Neither of these results bodes well for them against the Buckeyes. When a team gives up those kind of stats to an FCS team, and not even a good FCS team, it’s hard to give them any chance against a perennial Big Ten powerhouse like Ohio State.

Urban Meyer has vowed to not run Braxton Miller so much, but who knows if he will keep his word. Regardless, this game should once again be the Braxton Miller show. However, it will probably be his arm on display this week and another good game should cement his status amongst the early season Heisman contenders. With the injury bug hitting the Buckeyes’ running backs, this will be a good week for them to get other guys touches and some game experience. They only have one more cupcake after Cal before they begin the real season and Meyer knows they cannot rely on one guy, Miller, to carry them all season. As we saw with Denard Robinson two years ago, it is very tough for a running quarterback to make it through an entire Big Ten schedule unscathed.

Prediction: Ohio State 41 – California 10

Over the course of the past few weeks, we have taken a look at each of the opponents on Michigan’s schedule, going in order of what we feel to be easiest to toughest. We’re down to the three toughest, beginning with the Michigan State Spartans. For previous opponent previews, see UMass, Minnesota, Illinois, Northwestern, Iowa, Purdue, Air Force, Notre Dame, and Nebraska.

Andrew Maxwell has big shoes to fill in Kirk Cousins

Overview

The team that has benefited the most from Michigan’s recent downturn has been its in-state rival Michigan State. And that’s just fine with the Spartans.

Earlier this spring, when asked about Michigan’s recent recruiting success, Michigan State head coach Mark Dantonio showed he wasn’t impressed.

“We’re laying in the weeds,” Dantonio said. “We’ve beat Michigan the last four years. So where’s the threat?”

Machismo aside, Dantonio has a tough job ahead of him this season to replace a starting quarterback, fullback, three of his top four receivers, top two tight ends, and number two running back. That’s a lot to replace for an offense that was middle-of-the-pack nationally last season.

The good news for the Spartans is that nearly everyone returns from a defense that led them to 11 wins last season. The Spartans ranked sixth nationally in total defense, ninth in rush defense, and 10th in scoring defense. But can the defense pull Michigan State through the Big Ten once again, especially with what should be an improved group of Legends Division foes?

Offense

Dantonio’s defense will need at least a competent offense, and the reigns of the offense will be handed over to junior Andrew Maxwell who has 29 career completions for 294 yards and a touchdown. He missed parts of spring practice with a sprained knee, opening the door for redshirt freshman Connor Cook to get some reps with the first team.

As long as Maxwell returns healthy, the job is his to lose this fall, but he’ll have to do so with some new receiving targets. B.J. Cunningham, Keshawn Martin, and Keith Nichol are all gone, as is tight end Brian Linthicum. The leading returning receiver is actually running back Le’Veon Bell, but the leading returning pass catcher from the receiving corps is tight end Dion Sims who had 12 receptions for 99 yards and three touchdowns. Tony Lippett and Bennie Fowler, who combined for six receptions for 64 yards will move into leading roles, while the biggest threat is likely to be Tennessee transfer DeAnthony Arnett. The NCAA ruled that Arnett does not have to sit out a year after transferring to be closer to his ill father.

William Gholston's dirty play returns to lead the Spartan defense

Bell returns as the starting running back behind what should be a very good offensive line, which lost just one starter. Dan France and Fou Fonoti are back at the tackle spots, while Chris McDonald returns at one guard spot. Given the inexperience at quarterback and running back, expect the Spartans to emphasize the running game more this season.

Defense

Defense will be MSU’s calling card again this fall with eight returning starters. Six of those eight were named All-Big Ten in 2011, so the Spartans won’t see any dropoff in production.

The line lost tackles Jerel Worthy and Kevin Pickelman to the NFL, but still has two very good defensive ends in William Gholston and Marcus Rush. Gholston ranked second on the team with 16 tackles for loss and five sacks, while Rush was third in each category with 12 and four, respectively.

The leader in both of those categories, linebacker Denicos Allen is back for more. He recorded 18.5 tackles for loss and 11 sacks. Joining him in the middle of the Spartan defense is Max Bullough and Chris Norman, both of whom started a year ago. Bullough was the team’s leading tackler last season and an All-Big Ten second team selection.

In the secondary, all but one starter return. Free safety Trenton Robinson is gone, but strong safety Isaiah Lewis and corners Darqueze Dennard and Johnny Adams are back. Adams was an All-Big Ten first teamer, while Lewis ranked second in the conference with four interceptions. Dennard had his best game of the year in the Outback Bowl when he picked off a pair of passes. The Spartan secondary should be the best in the Big Ten.

Special Teams

On special teams, both kicker Dan Conroy and punter Mike Sadler return. Conroy hit 17 of 23 field goal attempts last season, with a long of 50, while Sadler averaged 41.1 yards per punt. Keshawn Martin’s graduation leaves a vacancy in the return game, so that will be a battle to watch in fall camp.

Outlook

The Spartans face a fairly tough non-conference schedule, opening up with a rebuilding Boise State and hosting Notre Dame in Week 3. But the Big Ten schedule sets up nicely for the Spartans to capture a second straight Legends Division crown. MSU hosts Ohio State to begin conference play, and has a four-game stretch with home contests against Iowa and Nebraska sandwiched around road trips to Michigan and Wisconsin. If the Spartans make it through that gauntlet, they’ll be in the driver’s seat in the conference. The defense will be dominant, but will the offense provide enough firepower to put up enough points to win? Expect Michigan State to challenge for the Big Ten title once again and win 10 or 11 games.

What it means for Michigan

State fans won’t hesitate to point out how long it has been since Michigan the Spartans, and can you really blame them? Regardless of the fact that they did so during one of the worst three-year periods in Michigan history, it’s really the first time they have been able to talk in over 40 years. The all-time series is still 67-32-5 in Michigan’s favor and the last time MSU saw this kind of success was the period from 1950-69 when it went 14-4-2 against Michigan. From that period until the current four game streak, Michigan had won 30 of the 38 contests.

That means this will likely be the most important game on the schedule for Michigan. Brady Hoke and the players won’t say so, but you can bet privately they want to regain control of the rivalry just as much as they did against Ohio State last season.

The game is in Ann Arbor and it falls right after games against Purdue and Illinois – two solid warm-up games. Michigan State has a similar lead-up, facing Indiana and Iowa prior to visiting the Big House. Both teams will have played Notre Dame and a marquee season opener, though Michigan’s (Alabama) is a much stiffer test than State’s (Boise State).

It’s about as even as it gets with the home field advantage tipping the odds in Michigan’s favor ever so slightly.

There comes a time when you say to yourself enough’s enough. You’ve always dominated and gotten your way, but recently your little brother has snuck up and stolen a few cookies from the cookie jar while you were on a diet. Those cookies always looked so tempting, but you just couldn’t quite muster up the courage to take one. And little brother taunted you with them.

#11 Michigan v. #23 Michigan State
	Saturday Oct. 15 12 p.m. ET ESPN
6-0 (2-0)	Record	4-1 (1-0)
Western Michigan 34-10 Notre Dame 35-31 Eastern Michigan 31-3 San Diego State 28-7 Minnesota 58-0 Northwestern 42-24	Wins	Youngstown St. 28-6 Florida Atlantic 44-0 Central Michigan 45-7 Ohio State 10-7
	Losses	Notre Dame 13-31
38.0	Scoring Offense	28.0
257.0	Rushing YPG	128.8
200.5	Passing YPG	269.2
457.5	Total Offense	398.0
12.5	Scoring Defense	10.2
134.0	Rush Defense YPG	64.0
202.5	Pass Defense YPG	109.4
336.5	Total Defense YPG	173.4
17	Takeaways	10
11	Giveaways	7
11/2	Sacks By/Allowed	14/5
39-of-68 (57%)	Third-down Conv.	25-of-71 (35%)
4-for-6 (67.7%)	Field Goals	7-for-10 (70%)
35.6	Net Punt Avg.	33.7

Then, one day, you’re not quite to where you want to be, but you decide to put a stop to it. By god, those are your cookies. and you’re sick of being taken advantage of. So you hired a new nutritional coach who gives you a great game plan that even includes an indulgence of a few cookies here and there. Little brother comes looking for his cookies and they’re gone. His short stint as the cookie monster is over and he’s relegated back to longing to be you.

Obviously that’s a silly example, but it’s by and large the situation Michigan faces tomorrow. For 103 years, Michigan has dominated the rivalry, winning two-thirds of the meetings. When the Paul Bunyan trophy was introduced in 1953, Michigan State won it, but Michigan has brought old Paul back to Ann Arbor 34 times to MSU’s 22.

In the past three years, however, Little Brother woke up…or, rather, capitalized on an advantageous situation. Rich Rodriguez was brought in to bring Michigan into modernity, and we all know the story. Michigan State swooped in and won all three meetings.

Now, Rodriguez is gone and Brady Hoke has brought a new attitude to Ann Arbor – one that hearkens tradition and values rivalries. He’s already one-for-one, having beaten Notre Dame in Week 2, and now he could become the first Michigan head coach since Bennie Ooosterbaan in 1948 to beat Michigan State in his frist season as head coach. Bo Schembechler lost his first matchup 23-12 in 1969, Gary Moeller lost 28-27 in 1990, and Lloyd Carr lost 28-25 in 1995.

Michigan State enters tomorrow’s matchup 4-1 and ranked 23rd nationally, boasting the nation’s No. 1 ranked total defense. Does Michigan have a chance to end the three-year drought? Let’s take a look at the matchpus.

Quarterbacks:

Kirk Cousins is a senior three-year starter and three-time captain. He has a 20-10 record as MSU’s starting quarterback and has a chance to tie Jeff Smoker (2000-03) for the school record if he beats Michigan tomorrow. So far this season, Cousins has been accurate (67.8 percent) and has thrown for 1,197 yards and six touchdowns.

He’s not much of a runner, so Michigan won’t have to worry about a Northwestern-style offense that it had trouble stopping in the first half last week. He has a decent arm but the offense is more tailored towards short-to-intermediate passes and a power run game. He’s efficient and accurate with outs, slants, curls and the like and has the ability to throw deep every now and then.

He’s likely to be the best quarterback Michigan faces all season, but the Michigan defense has faced its share of good signal-callers so far in Alex Carder, Tommy Rees, Ryan Lindley, and Dan Persa. It gave up a lot of yards to Rees, but got the better of him in the end, and contained the others pretty well. All this to say that while Cousins is good, Michigan and defensive coordinator Greg Mattison certainly won’t be afraid of him.

Denard Robinson is arguably the most dangerous player in the country and the most important player to his team in the Big Ten. He hasn’t always been consistent this season, but he has displayed the ability to win with his legs or his arm. Most people think of him as a running back playing quarterback, but as he showed in the second half against Notre Dame and last week, he can put the ball in the air when needed. It’s just a matter of whether the good-throwing Denard or the back-foot-throwing Denard will show up.

Last year, Michigan State was the first team to bottle him up, holding him to just 86 rushing yards on 21 carries (4.1 yards per) and 215 passing yards, one touchdown, and three interceptions. He’s still prone to mistakes when pressured, but he’s not the same player he was a year ago and this isn’t the same offense either. Rest assured Hoke and offensive coordinator Al Borges will have a good plan to neutralize State’s powerful front seven.

Edge: Even

Le'Veon Bell is a good running back behind an underperforming line (photo by Kirk Irwin, Getty Images)

Running Backs:

Michigan State features a pair of good running backs in Le’Veon Bell and Edwin Baker. Bell leads the team with 267 yards and six touchdowns, averaging 5.1 yards per carry. Baker is close behind in yards with 252 yards on 4.1 yards per carry, but just one touchdown. They’re a punishing duo because they give the Spartans two nearly equal bruisers to rotate in and keep fresh. In addition, junior Larry Caper has been a thorn in Michigan’s side the past two years, scoring the winning touchdown in overtime in 2009, and an eight-yard touchdown last season to break the game open. The big question, however, is whether Michigan State’s underperforming offensive line will be able to rise to the occasion, but more on that in a little bit.

Michigan also has a good stable of backs. Though individually they probably aren’t as talented as pure the Spartan trio, but they work well in Michigan’s offense, giving it plenty of versatility. Fitz Toussaint is the between the tackles back leading all UM running backs with 326 yards on 5.4 yards per carry and four touchdowns. But it’s Vincent Smith who is probably the Wolverines best all-around back. He has just 214 yards, but is averaging a whopping 7.4 yards per carry, is a threat as a receiver (seven catches for 104 and two touchdowns) and is solid at picking up blitzes. Michael Shaw is the speed back who can get to the edge as we saw in the second half of last week’s game.

Michigan’s running game ranks seventh in the nation, averaging 257 yards per game. Much of that is thanks to Robinson, but the backs can get the job done.

Edge: Even

Receivers:

There’s no question who the go-to guy is for the Spartans. Senior B.J. Cunningham has 36 receptions (twice as many as the second-leading receiver) for 582 yards and two touchdowns. He ranks second in the Big Ten in yards per game and receptions per game and he’s a big-bodied NFL-type wideout who is hard to defend. He’s gone over 130 yards in three of the Spartans’ five games so far this season.

Keshawn Martin is the Spartans second-leading receiver with 19 receptions for 177 yards. He’s the slot guy who could terrorize Michigan’s defense tomorrow as it focuses on stopping Cunningham. Last season, he led MSU with six catches for 69 yards against Michigan. Outside of those two, only former quarterback Keith Nichol has more than 100 yards. He’s ok, but about as good a receiver as a former quarterback can be.

Michigan has several talented receivers with a lot of experience. Junior Hemingway is the number one guy and the main deep threat. He has become Michigan’s best jump-ball receiver since Braylon Edwards. His size allows him to outmuscle the defensive back and go up and get the ball. Sophomore Jeremy Gallon has emerged as Michigan’s second receiver and actually leads the Wolverines in receptions with 17. He has shown speed on the edge and an ability to turn a quick screen into yards. Roy Roundtree, last year’s leading receiver (and second-leading receiver in the Big Ten) has been quiet so far in his move to the outside, but is talented enough to demand respect from the defense.

Edge: Even

Offensive Line:

As was discussed above, Michigan State’s offensive line has underwhelmed thus far. With a trio of good running backs, the line has only paved the way for 128.8 rushing yards per game (79th nationally). It mustered just 71 yards on 31 attempts two weeks ago against Ohio State and 29 (!) yards on 23 attempts in a 31-13 loss to Notre Dame. The line is solid in pass protection, allowing a sack per game, but redshirt freshman center Travis Jackson will have his hands full tomorrow with Mike Martin.

Michigan’s line has been an asset all season, helping lead the nation’s seventh-best rushing attack and allowing just two sacks through six games. Center David Molk is the leader of the unit and a mid-season All-American according to ESPN’s Mark Schlabach. Left tackle Taylor Lewan is a beast and the rest of the guys have been solid. The unit has allowed just two sacks all season, bu the big test comes tomorrow.

Edge: Michigan

Defensive Line:

Worthy breaks through the line and sacks Braxton Miller before he can even hand it off

This is probably Michigan State’s biggest strength. The group is led by an NFL-caliber nose tackle in Jerel Worthy who practically lives in the backfield, as you can see in the photo. He’s impossible to single block and likes to jump the snap. How Molk handles Worthy will probably make a difference between good Denard and bad Denard.

The other star of the defensive line is sophomore end William Gholston. He’s always in the backfield as well and has the speed to chase down the running from behind on the backside, as he did a couple times against Ohio State.

Michigan’s defensive line is good too, led by senior Mike Martin. Ryan Van Bergen has blossomed into a good pass rusher and Craig Roh is improving weekly after a slow start. This may be the key matchup of the game – whether or not Michigan’s line can get consistent pressure on Cousins. If not, he’ll pick the defense apart.

Edge: Michigan State

Linebackers:

Sophomores Max Bullough and Denicos Allen are very good linebackers, reminiscent of classic Ohio State linebackers, which makes sense given that MSU Head Coach Mark Dantonio came from OSU. Allen leads the team in sacks (three) and tackles-for-loss (7.5). Bullough got a sack against Ohio State (but then again who didn’t?) and leads the team in tackles with 33.

Michigan’s linebackers have held up surprisingly well, much better than the past few years. It’s not a good unit by any means, but it’s slowly improving. Freshman Jake Ryan is going to be a great player at Michigan in the coming years but right now, he and Kenny Demens struggle to contain on the outside. Northwestern killed them in the first half before Mattison backed them up a step and put Ryan over the slot.

Edge: Michigan State

Secondary:

The Spartans are led by a pair of good safeties in Isaiah Lewis and Trenton Robinson. Robinson was Second-team All-Big Ten a year ago, while Lewis, a Big Ten All-Freshman Team selection last season, has two picks. Sophomore defensive back Darquezze Dennard had his first career interception against Ohio State. The safeties like to creep up to the line of scrimmage and move around a lot before the snap. It’s safe to say one will be pulled up until Michigan proves it can beat them deep.

Michigan’s secondary is at least consistent this season. Freshman Blake Countess has emerged as a playmaker and is getting serious playing time in place of banged up Troy Woolfolk. The safeties Thomas Gordon and Jordan Kovacs are the stars of the secondary. Kovacs leads the team in sacks with three, none more important than the fourth-down sack of Persa last week (regardless of whether it was a facemask or not).

Edge: Even

Special Teams:

Michigan State’s one weakness might be its special teams. Punter Mike Sadler has booted 18 punts for an average of 40.1, but the net is just 33.68, which is 110th nationally. Kicker Dan Conroy has been around forever and is 6-of-9 this season with a long of 50. Redshirt freshman running back Nick Hill is the main kick returner, averaging 26.9 yards per return, while Keshawn Martin is a dangerous punt returner capable of breaking one.

That's right Dantonio. I'm coming to take back my cookies! (photo by the Ann Arbor News)

For Michigan, Will Hagerup has punted just three times since his return from suspension, averaging 37.7 per punt. Kicker Brendan Gibbons is 4-of-6, having had last week’s only attempt blocked. Gallon does a good job with punt returns, averaging 10.7 yards per, which is 23rd nationally.

Edge: Even

Coaches:

Mark Dantonio is a Jim Tressel disciple. Since coming to East Lansing in 2007, he has turned the program around and instilled a toughness and focus on beating Michigan. He has succeeded with that in three of four meetings. He’s a defensive-minded coach, but always seems to prepare special offensive packages just for Michigan.

Brady Hoke has a chance to do something no Michigan coach has done since 1948: beat Michigan State in his first attempt. If he does so, he’ll have Michigan as the front-runner for the Big Ten Legends Division title. His coordinators, Al Borges and Greg Mattison, have been brilliant all season, especially in the second half. Whether you call it coaching or adjustments, the proof is in the pudding as Michigan has outscored its opponents 114-21 in the second half through six games (and 62-7 in the fourth quarter).

While I think Michigan has the better coaches overall, until they can prove they can clear the green and white mid-season hurdle, I can’t give them the edge.

Edge: Push

Intangibles:

Michigan State has the momentum in the series, riding a three-game winning streak over Michigan. The game is in East Lansing and the Spartans will be wearing some ugly shiny South Florida new pro combat uniforms. The weather calls for a windy day which favors running games and Michigan’s running game is seventh in the nation. State’s is just 79th. In this rivalry, the team that won the running game has won 28 of the past 31 meetings. That favors Michigan.

Edge: Even

Spartan fans claim they’ve seen this story before for Michigan: Michigan starts fast, feasting on cupcakes, until State beat them and then it’s all downhill from there. The irony is that’s been the Spartans’ M.O. up until the past couple of seasons. But this isn’t the same team Michigan fielded the past three years. It has some of the same elements, but the offense is much more complex, the defense has actual coaching, and the head coach places a major emphasis on beating rivals. He’ll have the Wolverines focused.

I think it comes down to two factors: the offensive and defensive lines. Can Molk and company keep Worthy and Gholston from invading the backfield and pressuring Denard into back-foot throws? Conversely, can Martin, Van Bergen, and Roh get consistent pressure on Cousins? Michigan State likes to roll the pocket to hide the line’s protection weaknesses and throw a lot of short routes. Look for Mattison to change up the blitzes to try to force Cousins into some bad throws of which he is prone to make.

It’s important for Michigan to get off to a fast start to put pressure on MSU early, but either way, It’s going to come down to the end like most Michigan-Michigan State games do. I have no doubt Michigan will be able to move the ball pretty effectively by using a combination of quick screens and zone-read to neutralize the Spartan pass rush. If Michigan can finish off its drives like it has all season (with the exception of the first half last week) then it should be able to outscore MSU.

Prediction: Michigan 27 – Michigan State 23

Good to Know:

Michigan leads the all-time series 67-31-5 (34-22-2 since the Paul Bunyan trophy was introduced in 1953, and 30-11 since 1970)

Michigan has forced multiple turnovers in all six games this season and has a plus-six turnover margin, which is best in the Big Ten and 14th nationally. The 17 turnovers forced are just two short of last year’s season total

Michigan is 26-of-28 in the red zone so far this season, including touchdowns on 22 (79 percent) of those trips

Junior Hemingway is averaging 26.1 yards per reception, which ranks first in the Big Ten and second in the nation

After going scoreless in the first quarter through the first three games, Michigan has scored touchdowns on its first possession of the game in each of the last three games

Michigan has committed just 24 penalties so far (average of four per game), which ranks first in the Big Ten and tied for eighth nationally

Record Watch:

With one passing touchdown, Denard Robinson will tie Jim Harbaugh (1983-86) for 9th on Michigan’s career list. With three, he will tie Brian Griese (1994-97) for 8th With 38 rushing yards, Denard will pass Tim Biakabatuka (1993-95) for 10th on Michigan’s career rushing list. He can reach 9th and pass Gordon Bell (1973-75) with 128 With one rushing touchdown, Denard will move into a tie with Gordon Bell (1973-75) for 10th in career rushing touchdowns. With two, he will reach Butch Woolfolk (1978-81). And with three, he will tie Tom Harmon (1938-40) and Billy Taylor (1969-71) for 7th With 109 receiving yards, Junior Hemingway could move into the top 20 in career receiving yards, passing Ralph Clayton (1976-79), John Kolesar (1985-88), and Adrian Arrington (2004-07)

Five games into the season, Michigan brings an unblemished record into its first true test of the year. In-state rival, Michigan State, is coming off a big upset win over then-No. 11 Wisconsin. The two meet tomorrow in Michigan Stadium with a lot on the line.

Michigan is looking to bring the Paul Bunyan Trophy back to Ann Arbor from its two-year vacation in East Lansing and give Rich Rodriguez his first win over Michigan’s two chief rivals, MSU and Ohio State.

Michigan vs. Michigan State
	Sat. 10/9 3:30 p.m. ET ABC/ESPN
5-0	Record	5-0
UConn 30-10 Notre Dame 28-24 UMass 42-37 Bowling Green 65-21 Indiana 42-35	Wins	W. Michigan 38-14 Florida Atlantic 30-17 Notre Dame 34-31 OT N. Colorado 45-7 #11 Wisconsin 34-24
	Losses
41.4	Scoring Offense	36.2
324.4	Rushing YPG	220.2
240.6	Passing YPG	240.4
565.0	Total Offense	460.6
25.4	Scoring Defense	18.6
125.8	Rush Defense YPG	101.2
307.8	Pass Defense YPG	227.4
433.6	Total Defense YPG	328.6
9	Takeaways	11
5	Giveaways	9
7/1	Sacks By/Allowed	5/11
33/61 (54%)	Third-down Conv.	23/62 (37%)
1/5	Field Goals	7/7
34.0	Net Punt Avg.	38.0

Michigan State hopes to earn a third straight win over its big brother and take another crucial step towards a Big Ten championship. It doesn’t play Ohio State, so the only major test remaining would be at No. 15 Iowa on Oct. 30.

Something has to give and analysts and fans alike will be looking to see if Denard Robinson can keep up his torrid start to the season. After racking up 1,913 yards in the first five games (more than 34 entire FBS teams), the only knock anyone can come up with so far has been that he hasn’t done it against a good defense. Saturday, he gets his first chance.

Michigan State enters with the nation’s 20^th-ranked run defense, giving up just 101 yards per game. However, just like one can say that Robinson isn’t the real thing until he faces a good defense, the same argument could be made that Michigan State’s defense hasn’t yet faced Robinson.

In last week’s 34-25 win over Wisconsin, the Badgers’ run game wasn’t exactly shut down, averaging 6.3 yards per carry, sacks not included. While John Clay was held under 100 yards for the first time this season (17 carries for 80 yards), freshman James White ran 10 times for 98 yards (9.8 ypc) and two touchdowns.

Michigan gets Michael Shaw back from an injury that forced him to miss last week’s game and that could be big. Michigan State’s defense, led by linebacker Greg Jones, will be intent on keeping Robinson from beating them with his legs. Shaw, who has looked to be Michigan’s most dangerous back, could go off like White did last week.

The weakness of State’s defense is the secondary, which has given up an average of 227 yards per game and ranks 78^th in the nation. Notre Dame shredded the Spartans through the air, racking up 369 yards and four touchdowns. By comparison, Michigan’s pass defense, which ranks dead last in the FBS, gave up 381 yards passing to Notre Dame, 95 of which came on one play.

If State’s defense focuses on forcing Robinson to beat it through the air, Michigan’s talented receiving corps will go wild. It seems as if a different Wolverine receiver has stepped up in each game, and all are competent enough to keep defenses from crowding the line.

Against Notre Dame, Martavious Odoms caught seven passes for 91 yards and Roy Roundtree caught eight passes for 82 yards and a touchdown. The next week, against UMass, it was Darryl Stonum who stepped up, catching three passes for 121 yards and two touchdowns. Against Bowling Green, Roundtree caught nine passes for 118 yards. Last week, against Indiana, Roundtree again had a big game with five catches for 126 yards and a touchdown, and Junior Hemingway broke out with three catches for 129 yards and a touchdown.

With that many guys to cover, it may be tough for a shaky secondary to handle. Robinson will focus on the slants and screens that have been his go-to plays when he’s not blazing into the end zone himself, but if he’s throwing accurate deep balls, which he has this season, but not last week, expect some big plays.

Defensively, Michigan will give up some points. I should just copy and paste that phrase into each post since it seems to be the theme of the season. Opponents have averaged 25.2 points per game so far and Indiana racked up nearly 500 yards passing last week.

Fortunately, Michigan State’s passing game, led by junior Kirk Cousins, isn’t quite as dangerous as Indiana’s. That’s not to say he won’t rack up some yards though. Cousins has been efficient so far this season, completing 68 percent of his passes for 1,132 yards and nine touchdowns against four interceptions.

Last week against Wisconsin, Cousins completed 20-of-29 passes for 269 yards and three touchdowns. He was also picked off twice.

The running game is a good one with the two-headed monster of Edwin Baker and Le’Veon Bell. Each is averaging over seven yards per carry this season, and the two have combined for 12 rushing touchdowns.

Shaw, who returns from injury, and Robinson face the nation's 20th-ranked run defense tomorrow (photo by the Detroit Free Press)

One thing that stands out to me is the 11 sacks that the Spartans have given up. That’s just over two per game. Michigan’s defense has only recorded seven sacks so far, but the strength of the defense is the line of Mike Martin, Ryan Van Bergen, and Greg Banks. Five of those seven sacks have come in the past two weeks and with State expected to try to take advantage of Michigan’s weak secondary, look for the line to get some pressure on Cousins.

Three predictions

1. Michael Shaw runs for near 100 yards and scores two touchdowns

2. Denard Robinson passes for over 250 yards

3. Michigan’s defense gets four combined sacks and turnovers

Overall, I see this game as being very similar to both the Notre Dame and Indiana games. High-scoring, back-and-forth, not much defense. State’s defense may slow down Robinson stat-wise this week, but Michigan’s other playmakers will step up and the offense will keep rolling. The defense only needs a couple of stops in this one to get the offense ahead.

Michigan wins at home 37-33.

From Their View…

The State News declares Michigan’s dominance over, while overlooking the fact that the past two years have given State a whopping 30 wins over Michigan in the rivalry. Oh yeah, Michigan has won 67 times. As if you needed any more evidence that State isn’t exactly Harvard (or Michigan), apparently the math goes like this: 30 > 67.