Tim Hardaway Jr. scored 21 points on just eight shots (Paul Battaglia, AP)

After suffering defeat for the first time on Sunday, Michigan answered bounced back with an impressive performance on the road in one of the Big Ten’s toughest venues. The Wolverines knocked off the 9th-ranked Minnesota Gophers 83-75 for their first road win over a top 10 team since beating Duke in 1996.

Just like in Sunday’s loss to Ohio State, scoring was hard to come by at the beginning, as Michigan scored just two points in the first three-and-a-half minutes. But the difference in this one was that the game didn’t get away from them during that time as Minnesota only managed six points.

Two threes by Tim Hardaway Jr. tied the game at 10 heading into the first TV timeout. Gopher Austin Hollins hit a three out of the break, but a free throw followed by a three by Hardaway gave Michigan a lead it would never relinquish. The Wolverines carried a 36-30 lead into the half.

In the second, Jordan Morgan scored the first two baskets for Michigan and a Hardaway dunk opened up a 10-point lead. Michigan continued to pull away over the next few minutes, punctuated by a Glenn Robinson steal at midcourt and 360 dunk that silenced the Gopher crowd. Michigan led 56-37.

However, just like Minnesota did against Indiana last week, they started chipping away at the lead. But the closest they would ever get was seven. The final six minutes of the game became a free throw competition and Michigan hit enough of them – and Minnesota didn’t – to seal the win.

Hardaway led the way for Michigan with 21 points and six rebounds on 4-of-5 three-point shooting. Trey Burke matched his season average with 18 and dished out nine assists. Nik Stauskas was the only other Wolverine in double figures with 11. Robinson and Morgan each added nine, while Mitch McGary scored eight.

Michigan shot 54.9 percent for the game and hit 10-of-20 three-pointers, while Minnesota shot 48.1 percent and was also 50 percent from downtown. Michigan pulled in just 25 rebounds, a season low, compared to Minnesota’s 33, but the Gophers are one of the best rebounding teams in the Big Ten.

Michigan now gets a week off before hosting Purdue (9-8, 3-2) next Thursday and then visiting Illinois (14-4, 1-3) on Sunday.

#5 Michigan at #9 Minnesota
Thursday, Jan. 17 | 7pm ET | ESPN
16-1 (3-1)	Record	15-2 (3-1)
Slippery Rock 100-62 IUPUI 91-54 Cleveland State 77-47 Pittsburgh 67-62 Kansas State 71-57 NC State 79-72 Bradley 74-66 W. Michigan 73-41 Arkansas 80-67 Binghamton 67-39 West Virginia 81-66 E. Michigan 93-54 C. Michigan 88-73 Northwestern 94-66 Iowa 95-67 Nebraska 62-47	Wins	American 72-36 Toledo 82-56 Tennessee State 72-43 Richmond 72-57 #19 Memphis 84-75 Stanford 66-63 Florida State 77-68 North Florida 87-59 S. Dakota State 88-64 USC 71-57 N. Dakota State 70-57 Lafayette 75-50 #18 Michigan State 76-63 Northwestern 69-51 #12 Illinois 84-67
#15 Ohio State 53-56	Losses	#5 Duke 71-89 #5 Indiana 81-88
79.1	Points Per Game	76.3
58.6	Scoring Defense	61.4
498-for-981 (50.8%)	Field Goal %	450-for-957 (47.0%)
385-for-956 (40.3%)	Def. Field Goal %	370-for-957 (38.7%)
144-for-356 (40.4%)	3-point %	95-for-268 (35.4%)
108-for-350 (30.9%)	Def. 3-point %	93-for-206 (30.4%)
205-for-286 (71.7%)	Free Throw %	302-for-428 (70.6%)
12.1	FT Made/Game	17.8
37.9	Rebounds Per Game	40.6
28.6	Opp. Reb. Per Game	30.7
15.8	Assists Per Game	16.5
9.5	Turnovers Per Game	14.6
5.1	Steals Per Game	9.6
2.7	Blocks Per Game	6.4
G – Trey Burke (18.0) G – Tim Hardaway Jr. (16.1)	Leading Scorer	G – Andre Hollins (14.4) F – Rodney Williams (12.5)
F – Mitch McGary (5.9) F – Glenn Robinson (5.8)	Leading Rebounder	F – Trevor Mbakwe (8.1) F – Rodney Williams (5.9)

By now, everyone knows the story of Michigan’s first loss of the season that came at the hands of Ohio State on Sunday. After falling down by more than 20 points in the first half, a second half effort fell just short and the Wolverines failed to set a record for best start in school history, only managing to tie the 1985-86 outfit that matched the 16-0 of this year’s team.

There is good news and bad news for Michigan tonight. The good news is that Michigan has a chance to avenge their first Big Ten loss with another big-time battle on the home court of a nationally-ranked opponent in Minnesota (7pm on ESPN). The bad news is that Michigan has a serious chance of losing its second straight game tonight as well.

While neither outcome would drastically change the course of the season, there is no denying this game’s importance. With that in mind, let’s analyze tonight’s keys of the game:

1. Get off to a Fast Start: In Minnesota’s two losses to date – an 89-71 beating from Duke in a preseason tournament and an 88-81 loss at Indiana last Saturday – the Golden Gophers started trailing big early on, falling behind by double digits fewer than 12 minutes into both games. The Blue Devils had a comfortable six- to 11-point lead throughout the first half before taking a seven-point lead into the halftime break while the Hoosiers continuously stretched their own lead over Minnesota to 23 points by the break.

It was no secret that Michigan’s loss to Ohio State was caused in some part by a lackadaisical first half that saw the Wolverines trail by as many as 21 points before cutting the Buckeye lead to 12 at the 20-minute mark. And even though the Maize and Blue staged a beautiful and methodical comeback that eventually saw the game tied at 46 with six minutes remaining, Michigan just didn’t seem to have the execution needed down the stretch to win a big-time road game.

Former Wolverine Zack Novak surmised that the comeback effort probably drained a lot of the energy out of Michigan throughout the game and at least played a factor in their struggles to close it out in the end in a recent interview on UMHoops.com.

Rodney Williams is Minnesota's second-leading scorer and rebounder (Andy Lyons, Getty Images)

In Minnesota’s biggest win to date, an 84-67 victory at Illinois just last week, the Gophers fell behind by a couple points early on but recovered to take a nice seven-point lead later in the first half and maintained a four-point margin at halftime. If Michigan lets the home team get off to another hot start and looks flustered early on, the Barn is going to jump all over the Wolverines and Michigan will be well on its way to back-to-back losses.

2. Play Smart Defense: Neither Michigan’s offense nor its defense was up to par in that ugly first half in Columbus on Sunday, but most concerning to me was how easily Ohio State scored to take their big, early lead. Aaron Craft was getting one screen and finding wide open lanes to the basket, turnovers were leading to easy fast-break points, and the Buckeyes exploited a number of mismatches before some adjustments were made and the Wolverines eventually held Ohio State to 56 points, its second-lowest output of the season. When Mitch McGary was on the floor, John Beilein often had his team switch to a 2-3 zone defense when it was a viable option to help hide his poor help defense, and I expect a little more of the same tonight.

Look for Beilein to show Minnesota a couple different looks for at least a few possessions each, including some 1-3-1 and 2-3. When Michigan deploys their standard man defense, they should be sticking to the scouting report as much as possible. The Wolverines simply cannot let a non-big guard monster Trevor Mbakwe in the paint and they can never lose Rodney Williams in the lane or either Hollins (Andre and Austin) from behind the arc. Minnesota doesn’t have the number of offensive weapons that a team like Michigan touts, which means that Beilein should do everything he can to make sure these key players don’t beat Michigan.

3. Run, Run, Run: The final key to Michigan’s loss to Ohio State was its inability to score easy points. It sounds ridiculous to say that Michigan had trouble scoring for once this season after being in the top 15 in the country in both shooting percentage and points per game, but the 53 points Michigan managed were nine points fewer than their lowest output up to that point, a 62-point performance in their previous game against Nebraska. One of the biggest reasons for this was the lack of a transition game.

Tubby Smith has the Gophers in contention for the Big Ten and national championships (Darron Cummings, AP)

Trey Burke and Tim Hardaway, Jr. are lethal in the open court, providing pretty much guaranteed points on any fast break attempt, but Ohio State successfully shut down that aspect of Michigan’s game in not allowing the Wolverines to put up a single fast-break point. When playing against Minnesota, one thing is certain: there are points to be had. The Gophers have given up an average of 88.5 points per game in those two losses and coughed the ball up 32 times combined, which would put them just slightly above their season average of 15 turnovers per game.

It will be absolutely crucial for Michigan to take advantage of the turnovers Minnesota will hand over and to rebound the ball well to start the break as often as possible. Obviously John Beilein wants to play the smart game, which means Michigan will set up a half-court offense whenever running is not a strong option, but he will assuredly encourage Burke and Co. to push the ball up court whenever the floor looks open.

Prediction: Sunday’s game was the first in which Michigan did not look like a sure-fire Final Four team at this point in the season, and tonight’s game is not any easier on paper. Minnesota has two of the best athletes in the country in Williams and Mbakwe and will surely be looking to ride those two and their crowd to a huge victory tonight, but Michigan is also certain to be taking out their anger on Tubby Smith’s team. I expect the game to be close throughout with Michigan jumping out to a nice five- to seven-point cushion in the first half before holding on in the second to win 80-73.

The 2013 Big Ten season started just two weeks ago, but we have already learned so much about a number of teams in college basketball’s indisputable king of conferences. With as many as eight or nine teams looking to make a push for the Big Dance at the end of the year, it certainly has the makings of a special year. Here is a special Big Ten preview edition looking at the conference championship contenders. These power rankings will be occasionally updated throughout the remainder of the season.

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1. Michigan Wolverines: 16-0 (3-0)

Projected Record in Conference Play: 16-2
Best Win: vs. Pittsburgh
Worst Loss: None
Star: Trey Burke, 18.2 ppg, 7.3 apg, 53.3 FG%, 39.2 3p%
X-Factor: Nik Stauskas, 13.5 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 52.3 3p%

Ranking Reasoning: While I am writing this preview post with a Michigan basketball shirt on, it is simply impossible to rank any Big Ten team higher than Michigan so far, and I think they will continue to prove their superiority by taking home their second straight Big Ten title, this time individually. Trey Burke is indisputably the best point guard in the country right now, Mitch McGary and Jordan Morgan have been solid in the post and controlling on the glass, and the team shoots 41.1 percent from behind the arc, where five guys demand significant attention. In three Big Ten games so far (Iowa, Northwestern, Nebraska), Michigan has not been significantly challenged, winning by an average of almost 24 points per game. A huge week looms, however, as Michigan travels to Columbus on Sunday and Minneapolis on Thursday in two games that will say a lot about how the Big Ten will shake out.

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2. Indiana Hoosiers: 14-1 (2-0)

Projected Record in Conference Play: 14-4
Best Win: @ Iowa
Worst Loss: vs. Butler
Star: Cody Zeller, 16.5 ppg, 7.9 rpg, 1.3 bpg, 62.7 FG%
X-Factor: Will Sheehey, 12.1 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 39.4 3p%

Ranking Reasoning: Indiana came into the season ranked in just about everyone’s top two in the country, and they have hardly disappointed up until now. Yes, they lost to Butler in overtime, but the Bulldogs have a very solid squad that will win its fair share of games this year and probably earn a 4-seed or so in the NCAA Tournament. Like Michigan, Indiana is incredibly scary because of their dynamite offense that boasts five double digit scorers and a handful of secondary players that can step up on any given night as well. Zeller is still one of the best big men in the country, Victor Oladipo is using his athleticism to help him shoot 67.2 percent from the floor (including a ridiculous 47.8 percent from downtown), and Christian Watford is a matchup nightmare for opposing fours. Taking a quick glance at their stats is not advised for anyone who is not an Indiana fan, as the Hoosiers average the most points in the country (87), are the sixth best shooting team in the land (51.1 percent), and have four players that shoot better than 45 percent from three-point land on at least 20 attempts, including Jordan Hulls at 52 percent and Remy Abell at 60 percent. The only way to beat IU right now is to outscore them, and that is no easy task. The Hoosiers welcome a solid Minnesota team to Bloomington today in what will be a high-powered matchup.

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3. Minnesota Golden Gophers: 15-1 (3-0)

Projected Finish in Conference Play: 13-5
Best Win: @ #12 Illinois
Worst Loss: vs. #5 Duke
Star: Trevor Mbakwe, 9.3 ppg, 7.9 rpg, 1.4 bpg, 58.6 FG%
X-Factor: Austin Hollins, 10.8 ppg, 3.4 rpg, 2.8 apg, 2.1 spg, 38 3p%, 81.1 FT%

Ranking Reasoning: Tubby Smith has disappointed a little bit in his tenure in Minneapolis, but after a solid run in the NIT last season he was given a questionable contract extension. This year’s edition of the Golden Gophers has made that move look brilliant so far. Trevor Mbakwe is a terror down low coming off a season-ending injury last season and slowly but surely working his way back into the 30 minutes per game range (he is averaging just over 20 right now). Mbakwe and senior 6’7″ forward Rodney Williams play as if they both have invisible springs attached to the soles of their shoes, and put that athleticism to good use in combining to average nearly 14 boards per game. The one area that holds Minnesota back slightly is their distance shooting – Andre Hollins is the only Gopher shooting better than 40 percent behind the arc and only two or three others are worth challenging from deep. Tubby’s inside play has been great thus far, though, and should keep them in the discussion for a Big Ten championship until the last couple games.

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4. Ohio State: 12-3 (2-1)

Projected Record in Conference Play: 12-6
Best Win: @ Purdue
Worst Loss: @ #11 Illinois
Star: Deshaun Thomas, 20.3 ppg, 6.8 rpg, 40.4 3p%
X-Factor: LaQuinton Ross, 8.7 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 77.1 FT%

Ranking Reasoning: The Buckeyes entered the season looking to win at least a share of a fourth straight Big Ten title, but their opening game against Marquette perhaps proved to be an omen so far after it was cancelled because of a wet court (I’ll never understand playing real games outside). Thad Matta’s team has largely beaten the teams they were supposed to beat and has lost to those they were supposed to lose to, but that is precisely the problem. If a team is to live up to lofty preseason billings, it must turn heads at some point. Losses to Duke, Illinois, and Kansas are explainable, but wins over the likes of Winthrop, Purdue, Washington, and a handful of no-names are not turning any heads. Thomas has been outstanding for the Scarlet and Gray, pouring in points from all over the floor, but he has yet to find a Robin to take some pressure off. Lenzelle Smith, Jr. is the only other Buckeye to average double digits in the scoring column (with only 10.7 per night), and his inconsistent shooting has plagued the team thus far, though his 43.5 percent mark from deep leads the team. Junior point guard and leader Aaron Craft continues to play lock-down D, but he has really struggled to put the ball in the hoop. Matta needs to find someone to provide a legitimate scoring threat if they are going to come close to keeping their streak alive.

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5. Michigan State: 13-3 (2-1)

Projected Record in Conference Play: 12-6
Best Win: vs. #7 Kansas
Worst Loss: vs. #23 Connecticut
Star: Keith Appling, 14.2 ppg, 4.4 apg, 3.4 rpg, 1.7 spg
X-Factor: Derrick Nix, 8.9 ppg, 7.3 rpg, 50.5 FG%

Ranking Reasoning: Tom Izzo’s squads are notoriously slow-starting, and this season has been no exception after an opening game loss to Connecticut followed by a loss at Miami in the Big Ten/ACC Challenge a few weeks later. The Spartans did manage to beat Kansas, who has really come on lately, in their second game and have shown some good signs since then. Turnovers and shooting have hampered Michigan State though, and they appear to be problems that Izzo is going to have a hard time solving. Appling, Branden Dawson, and freshman Denzel Valentine have all turned the ball over nearly two and a half times per game and five others cough it up at least once a night to combine for 15 per game. Sophomore Travis Trice has shot well from deep (44.7 percent), but freshman Gary Harris is the only other Spartan who makes more than 35 percent of his downtown looks. Depth has also been a bit of an issue thus far, and Brandan Kearney’s surprising departure has not helped in that department. Michigan State’s defense will keep them in a lot of games, but Izzo needs to find a way to cut down on the turnovers and squeeze out some points to make a run in March.

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6. Illinois: 14-3 (1-2)

Projected Record in Conference Play: 9-9
Best Win: @ #10 Gonzaga
Worst Loss: @ Purdue
Star: Brandon Paul, 18.6 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 3.3 apg, 1.4 spg, 36.5 3p%
X-Factor: Tyler Griffey, 8.2 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 40.0 3p%

Ranking Reasoning: Illinois was easily the biggest mystery to me entering the 2012-13 season, and the mystery has not died yet. John Groce left Ohio after leading his 2011-12 edition of the Bobcats to a first (or second depending on how you look at it) round upset of Michigan in the NCAA Tournament to replace Bruce Weber as head man in Champaign. The Fighting Illini have responded to Groce’s fiery leadership with some huge wins over Butler, Ohio State, and at Gonzaga but have also taken two big losses at Purdue and at home against Minnesota. Brandon Paul is still the high-volume shooter he has always been, but he’s making threes at a respectable 36.5 percent clip and is always the man to keep an eye on. Senior sidekick D.J. Richardson is another guard capable of putting the ball in the hoop, but he is really struggling this year, making just 30.9 percent of his threes and 34.3 percent of his total looks while averaging just over 10 points a game. Sophomore Tracy Abrams is coming into his own this year, scoring 12.2 points per game while dishing out 3.4 assists and grabbing 3.9 rebounds, but his 29.8 percent shooting from deep needs to improve if Illinois is to contend. Griffey has been up and down this year after developing a nice outside shot, but his inconsistency and Illinois’s overall lack of a strong post presence will keep them from cracking the upper echelon of the league. There are simply too many “buts” for Groce to win the Big Ten in his first season.

Needing a win to stay in the Big Ten title hunt, Michigan was dealt a blow when Denard Robinson was ruled out for the game. But no one told Devin Gardner that was a bad thing. After a slow start, the junior quarterback-turned-receiver-turned-quarterback put on a display that will ease concerns about next season’s quarterback situation.

Michigan 35 – Minnesota 13
	Final Stats
35	Final Score	13
6-3, 4-1	Record	5-4 (1-4)
389	Total Yards	275
155	Net Rushing Yards	128
234	Net Passing Yards	147
18	First Downs	21
1	Turnovers	1
7-69	Penalties – Yards	9-68
3-88	Punts – Yards	3-127
29:08	Time of Possession	30:52
7-of-12	Third Down Conversions	4-of-14
1-of-2	Fourth Down Conversions	2-of-4
1-4	Sacks By – Yards	3-23
0-for-0	Field Goals	2-for-3
5-for-5	PATs	1-for-1
3-for-3	Red Zone Scores – Chances	3-for-4

Gardner completed 12-of-18 passes for 234 yards, two touchdowns, and an interception, leading Michigan to a 35-13 win over Minnesota. It didn’t start out positively, however, as Michigan gained just nine yards on eight plays in the first quarter.

The Gophers got the scoring started with a 10-yard touchdown pass from freshman quarterback Philip Nelson to tight end John Rabe. Michigan responded with a 12-play, 91-yard scoring drive that took seven minutes off the clock. The touchdown was a 45-yard pass from Gardner to Drew Dileo that seemed to be straight out of the playbook from a backyard football game. Gardner dropped back, stepped up, rolled to his right, then back all the way across the field to his left, and heaved it up to a wide open Dileo in the end zone.

After a Minnesota three-and-out, Gardner put together another long drive, marching 90 yards on 13 plays, capping it off with a two-yard Thomas Rawls touchdown run. It was the first time in Michigan history that the team scored touchdowns on consecutive drives of 90 yards or more, and just the third time it has ever been done in the same game.

Minnesota missed a 55-yard field goal as time expired in the first half and Michigan took a 14-7 lead into the locker room.

A Minnesota sack forced Michigan to punt away its first possession of the second half and the Gophers mounted a 10-play drive into the Michigan red zone. On fourth-and-16 from the 19-yard line, head coach Jerry Kill elected to call a fake field goal instead of kicking a 36-yarder. It failed miserably, gaining only five yards, and Michigan capitalized with an 86-yard scoring drive. Jeremy Gallon did the heavy lifting on this drive, catching a 47-yard pass and a 10-yard touchdown grab to give Michigan a 21-7 lead.

Michigan retains the Little Brown Jug for the fifth straight year (photo by Tom Olmscheid, AP)

Minnesota tried to fight back, driving to the Michigan three-yard line, but settled for a field goal to pull within 11. Michigan scored touchdowns on its next two possessions – a two-yard run by Gardner and a 41-yard run by Fitz Toussaint – to put the game away.

Toussaint led the Wolverines in rushing with 74 yards on 13 carries, but 41 of those came on that one play. Rawls had 43 yards on 16 carries for a meager 2.7 yards per. Without Gardner in the receiving corps, the receiving was well rounded. Gallon led the way with four catches for 72 yards, while Dileo had 69 and Roy Roundtree had 64.

For Minnesota, Nelson took a lot of chances downfield with little success. The best success he had was drawing a few pass interference calls against Michigan’s defensive backs late in the game. He completed 13-of-29 passes for 142 yards and a touchdown. It will likely be good enough to keep Michigan atop the national rankings in pass defense. Donnell Kirkwood rushed 16 times for just 61 yards and Michigan held the Gophers to 3.4 yards per carry.

It was a game that Michigan was supposed to win, even without Denard, and the Wolverines did just that. The talk coming out of the game will likely center around Gardner’s performance and question whether he should start the rest of the season. Any talk of that kind should stop right there. I’ll get to it more later this week and so will Chris in his weekly Monday Morning Quarterback segment, so stay tuned. But for now, enjoy the win and look forward to returning to the Big House against Northwestern next Saturday.

For this week’s edition of Friend vs. Foe, we welcome Tom from the Minnesota SB Nation blog The Daily Gopher.  He will provide his perspective on how or why Minnesota can beat Michigan on Saturday. Remember, this is not an actual game prediction. It is an attempt to describe how or why each team can win from each side of the matchup.

The case for Minnesota
by Tom

If the question is, how or why can the Gophers win on Saturday, I think there are only a few perfect storm scenarios. I’ll give you three reasons why it is possible as long as you do not construe these as any sort of a prediction that such things will come to fruition.

First and foremost, Denard Robinson cannot be Denard Robinson. Or he cannot be playing at all. It is possible that the Gophers can compete or even win with a healthy Robinson, but in that scenario it would likely mean Michigan is beating Michigan with Minnesota taking advantage of critical mistakes.

Secondly I think it is really important to note the time of kickoff. Michigan has kicked off every game this year either in the evening for a nationally televised game or in the late afternoon. This will be their first 11:00 CST kickoff. The schedule of getting up a bit earlier, playing over lunchtime and doing this on the road may lead to a sluggish start for the Wolverines.

And lastly I can easily see Michigan looking past the Gophers. This isn’t really a trap game scenario with Northwestern on the schedule for next week, but I think Michigan thinks they can beat the Gophers in their sleep. And who can blame them? Last year’s 58-0 game may not have even been that close. The Gophers haven’t forgotten that score and I’m sure Michigan hasn’t either. I have been reading on a few different Michigan sites how the Gophers are better but the numbers really are deceiving and they really aren’t “that good.”

Nobody wants to have a let-down game and coaching staffs do everything in their power to avoid it, but it is human nature. After two consecutive weeks of getting yourself ready to play your best against Michigan State and Nebraska, it is only natural to take it a bit easy this week when you are facing what you believe to be an inferior opponent. The problem with this, for Michigan, is that the Gophers really are a better team and while they are not at the same level as Michigan the gap is closer.

Notice that none of my possible scenarios for a Gopher win involved player match-ups or areas that the Gophers can exploit. The Gopher defense is much better at defending the pass and with Robinson’s elbow Michigan might be more one-dimensional than they usually are. But even when you know what is coming you still have to defend it. Offensively the Gophers can move the ball when they don’t make mistakes. On the field the margin for error is incredibly thin for the Gophers. If they are to pull out a win and bring home the Jug I think Michigan will have to do what they can to increase that margin for Minnesota.

I’m not arguing that this game is a pick’em or that the Gophers are really in a great place to pull off an upset here. Michigan is the more talented football team, but my hope is that they believe that with all their heart.

The case for Michigan
by Justin

Following the disappointing loss to Nebraska last weekend, Michigan now finds itself needing help to win the Big Ten Legends division. Essentially, the Wolverines have to win all four of the remaining games and hope Nebraska loses one of its remaining games and it all starts with Minnesota on Saturday. If there’s one opponent you’d love to play coming off a loss and needing to get things going again for the stretch run it’s the Gophers.

As I showed in Monday’s First Look, the two teams’ offenses look fairly similar on paper. Michigan averages about three more points per game and is the better rushing team, but Minnesota is the better passing team. In terms of total offense, they’re about equal. But a couple of stats show the discrepancy between the two. Michigan converts 47 percent of its third downs, good for 23rd nationally, while Minnesota converts just 39 percent, which is 72nd nationally. Inside the red zone, Michigan has scored on 89 percent of its trips, while Minnesota just 77 percent. And Michigan has faced three of the toughest defenses in the country while Minnesota feasted on nobodies in the non-conference schedule.

Minnesota’s defense is solid against the pass (7th nationally) but very vulnerable to the run, giving up 178 yards per game which is 84th nationally. Three of the last four opponents have had 100-yard rushers against the Gophers, including Wisconsin which had two. Expect Michigan to continue that trend. Much like the Wolverines did against Purdue and Illinois, Denard and Fitz Toussaint will run often, and we may even see some more of Thomas Rawls.

Don’t expect Denard to pass much because he likely won’t need to, but do expect him to be a little more cautious with running out of bounds instead of taking a hit. As we saw last week, the biggest thing that could derail the rest of the season is Denard getting hurt for an extended period of time. He’ll have his share of big runs, but will likely defer to the running backs more than usual in an effort to avoid getting banged up in a game that shouldn’t be too difficult.

Minnesota’s only hope to pull out a win is for Michigan to come out lethargic following a demoralizing loss and in its first noon game (11am local time) of the season. But don’t expect that to happen.

On the other side of the ball, we don’t know a whole lot about freshman quarterback Philip Nelson, as he will be making just his third start. He struggled against Wisconsin two weeks ago, but looked good against Purdue last week. But then again, who doesn’t? His best bet is to try to beat Michigan’s corners deep a few times, which will likely happen, either with long completions or drawing pass interference penalties. But while it might get the Gophers a few big plays, it won’t be enough to sustain the offense against Michigan’s highly-rated defense.

Michigan will win convincingly and retain the Little Brown Jug for the fifth straight season. It won’t be like last year’s 58-0 romp, but it will be a win and keep Michigan in the Big Ten title hunt.

Michigan’s los to Nebraska last weekend put the Wolverines in a must-win scenario for every game the rest of the season. And it all starts tomorrow with the battle for the Little Brown Jug. It’s our very own Matt’s favorite rivalry.

Minnesota enters with a 5-3 record, but has won just one of four since Big Ten play started. The Gophers munched on douglas-firs – UNLV, New Hampshire, Western Michigan, and Syracuse – before dropping three straight to Iowa, Northwestern, and Wisconsin. Last week, Minnesota got back in the win column with a 44-28 win over Purdue.

Minnesota is fighting for bowl eligibility, needing at least one more win in its four remaining games. That will likely come next week against Illinois, but the Gophers would like to become bowl eligible this week and take back the Little Brown Jug. Can they? Let’s take a look at the matchups.

When Minnesota has the ball

Minnesota will be starting freshman quarterback Philip Nelson for the third straight week. He turned in rather pedestrian numbers against Wisconsin in his first start (13-of-24 for 149 yards, two interceptions and two touchdowns) but had a good game against Purdue last week (15-of-22 for 246 yards, three touchdowns, and no picks). He can also run a little bit, having carried the ball 25 times for 104 yards.

He will be throwing to junior A.J. Barker and a bunch of other guys. Barker leads the Gophers with 30 receptions for 577 yards and seven touchdowns. The next best receiver is Isaac Fruechte who has just 13 catches for 193 yards and two touchdowns. MarQueis Gray, who converted from quarterback to receiver, has caught seven passes for 73 yards in the past two weeks. He’s a great athlete, so he’s always dangerous with the ball in his hands.

In the backfield, Donnell Kirkwood is the workhorse with 138 carries for 609 yards and three touchdowns so far. He had his best game of the season last week, rushing for 134 yards on 6.1 yards per carry. No other running back has done much – Gray and Nelson are second and third on the team – but freshman Rodrick Williams Jr has been getting more carries each of the last three weeks.

The Gophers are only scoring 25 points per game and were held to 13 by Iowa, Northwestern, and Wisconsin. You might recognize that as the magic number Michigan has allowed a few times this season. Michigan’s defense has been outstanding the past six weeks, giving up an average of 9.8 points per game. The Wolverines held Nebraska well below its season average despite an offense that couldn’t stay on the field in the second half without Denard Robinson. Minnesota shouldn’t hurt Michigan at all with the run game, so look for Nelson to challenge Michigan’s secondary downfield. Even though Michigan features the top-ranked pass defense in the country, the corners have still been susceptible over the top.

When Michigan has the ball

Minnesota has the 7th-ranked pass defense in the nation but the 82nd-ranked rush defense. That shows that teams have been able to run all over the Gophers. The best rush offenses Minnesota has faced, Wisconsin and Northwestern, put up 337 and 208 rushing yards, respectively. Iowa also had a 100-yard rusher.

Safety Troy Stoudermire and cornerback Derrick Wells are the leading tacklers, while Wells also has a pair of interceptions. Linebackers Mike Rallis and Keanon Cooper are returning starters from last season and rank third and fourth on the team in tackles.

The defensive line found a pair of guys to step up after being a disaster last season. DL Wilhite leads the team and ranks second in the Big Ten with 6.5 sacks and also has nine tackles for loss. RaShede Hageman has also made an impact in the backfield, ranking sixth in the conference with four sacks.

Expect Michigan to run the ball just like it did against Purdue and Illinois. With a healthy Denard, Michigan should be able to eat up chunks of yards on the ground and only pass a handful of times.

The other third

Kicker Jordan Wetterstein is just 9-of-16 this season with a long of 44, while punter Christian Eldred averages just 37.4 yards per punt, which ranks ninth in the Big Ten. The Gophers don’t have much in the way of a return game. Barker handles punt returns and averages 7.1 yards per, but no one ranks in the top ten in the conference in kick returns.

Prediction

As I mentioned above, look for Michigan to run the ball. Denard better go out of bounds when necessary to avoid big hits, and hopefully the game can be well in hand by the end of the third quarter so he can rest and give Russell Bellomy some more game action. On the other side of the ball, Minnesota may connect a couple long balls, but shouldn’t be able to move the ball very much against Michigan’s defense. Michigan will retain control of the Jug for the fifth straight year.

Michigan 37 – Minnesota 10

Bonus: After Michigan’s win, root hard for Michigan State. Yes, I said it and I know it goes against everything you’ve been taught, but Michigan’s only chance of winning the Legends division is for Nebraska to lose one if its remaining game, and this is their best chance. So go Sparty!

Read our preseason preview here.

This Saturday, Michigan looks to follow up a poor performance against Nebraska with a win over Minnesota. The Gophers are currently in last place in the Big Ten Legends division, while Michigan is in a battle for first with Nebraska. At this point, every game is a must-win if Michigan wants any chance of reaching the Big Ten championship game. Minnesota, meanwhile, is still fighting for relevancy.

The Gophers picked up their first conference victory last Saturday, beating Purdue 44-28. You might remember that as being the same number of points Michigan scored on Purdue, though the Wolverines held the Boilers to just 13.

Michigan’s loss to Nebraska dropped the Wolverines to just 3-4 on the road in Brady Hoke’s tenure (not counting the neutral site loss to Alabama), so Michigan will need a win in Minneapolis to pull even in that regard. Does Minnesota have a shot at upsetting the Wolverines and dismantling their Big Ten title hopes? Or will Michigan keep those hopes alive? Let’s take a look.

On paper, Michigan and Minnesota look fairly similar – at least on offense. I never thought I would utter those words in a senior Denard-led offense, but that’s where we are eight games into the season. But while they look fairly even on paper, in actuality, Michigan has faced three of the nation’s top ten scoring defenses, while the best one Minnesota has faced is Wisconsin, which ranks 17th. In fact, the average scoring defense among the teams Minnesota has played is 56th, plus the 65th ranked scoring defense in the FCS. Conversely, Michigan’s is 51st.

The main discrepancy between the two teams is on defense. Michigan boasts the nation’s ninth-best total defense, 14th-best scoring defense and top pass defense, while Minnesota has the 43rd-best scoring defense and 27th-best total defense. The biggest mismatch may be in Michigan’s rush offene, which ranks 27th against Minnesota’s rush defense, which ranks 84th.

Freshman Philip Nelson has started the last two games at QB (photo by Andy Manis, AP)

The main playmaker for the Gophers is quarterback-turned-receiver MarQueis Gray. He started the season at quarterback, but made the move to receiver in favor of Max Shortell. Shortell then gave way to freshman Philip Nelson who has started the past two games and completed 61 percent of his passes for 395 yards, five touchdowns, and two interceptions. Against Purdue on Saturday, he went 15-of-22 for 246 and three TDs.

Gray is the team’s second leading rusher (from his time at quarterback) with 320 yards on 54 attempts and has caught eight passes for 89 yards since making the move.

Running back Donnell Kirkwood has rushed 132 times for 609 yards (an average of 4.4 yards per carry) and three touchdowns, while Nelson, having played in only the last two games, has rushed for 104 yards on 25 carries.

The receiving corps is pretty much a one-man show. Junior A.J. Barker has 30 catches for 577 yards and seven touchdowns. No other Gopher has more than 13 catches or 193 yards, however, 16 different players have caught a pass and 14 of those have caught at least two. The Minnesota passing offense is sixth-best in the Big Ten, just a few yards per game behind Nebraska, so Michigan’s top-rated pass defense will have its hands full once again.

The rush offense is also sixth in the conference, averaging 162.9 yards per game, but Wisconsin and Iowa held the Gophers to just 96 and 102 rushing yards, respectively.

Defensively, Minnesota allows just 159.9 yards per game through the air, good for seventh nationally and second in the Big Ten behind Michigan, but that is largely due to the success other teams have on the ground. Iowa’s Mark Weisman rushed for 177 yards on 21 carries, Northwestern’s Venric Mark gained 182 yards on 20 carries, and Wisconsin had two ball carriers with big days – James White had 175 yards on 15 carries and Montee Ball had 166 on 24. Needless to say, Minnesota’s rush defense has been anything but stout, and that’s good news for a Michigan offense that needs to get back on track.

Another area that Michigan seems to have a major advantage is on special teams. Brendan Gibbons has been getting quite a workout the past few weeks, and hopefully Michigan won’t need him much on Saturday, but he (and Matt Wile’s) 14-of-17 rate is far and away better than Minnesota kicker Jordan Wetterstein’s 9-of-16. In addition, punter Christian Eldred ranks ninth in the conference with an average of 37.4 yards per punt compared to Will Hagerup’s conference-best 45.9.

With Nebraska facing Michigan State on Saturday, this weekend is the beginning of a must-win four-game stretch for Michigan. Stay tuned for coverage throughout the week.