Posts Tagged ‘Outback Bowl’

MMQ looks back on the Outback and ahead to 2013

Monday, January 7th, 2013


Sadly, another Michigan football season has come to an end. It ended with a tough, last-second loss to South Carolina in the Outback Bowl. As with any game, there were areas of Michigan’s performance which can be looked at as both positives and negatives as we start looking ahead to next season.

Devin Gardner got valuable playing time that eases concerns about losing Denard next season (Detroit News photo)

As has been pointed out by a number of folks during the past week, the Wolverines played pretty well overall but were hurt throughout the game by the big chunk plays which South Carolina was able to get on offense. Michigan dominated the time of possession, holding the ball for 15 minutes more than the other side. Also, the running game, although it didn’t look like Michigan’s traditional style, was effective in keeping the South Carolina defense off-balance. Because of this, the passing game opened up some and quarterback Devin Gardner was able to hit some big passes, including three touchdowns. Lastly, the Wolverines converted all five of their opportunities in the red zone into points.

Let’s be honest. The offense MUST find a running game next season. Michigan will not be bailed out by Denard Robinson any longer just because the running backs aren’t running the ball effectively. And using Devin Gardner as a running threat will not be part of the offensive play-calling as Al Borges moves back toward his more traditional style of offense. My first hope is that Fitz Toussaint is able to both physically and mentally recover from last season and return to the form of the 2011 season. If not, the running game could rest on the back of a true freshman (Derrick Green?!) and sophomore Justice Hayes.

While some may be worried that the loss of Denard Robinson to graduation will be a major blow to the Michigan offense, I choose to look at it in a more positive light. Yes, Denard was a force which defenses had to prepare for every week. However, the injury which he sustained to his elbow midway through the season may have been a blessing in disguise when it comes to 2013. Had he not been injured, neither the coaches nor the fans would have seen the offensive possibilities of Gardner at quarterback. Most had assumed that Gardner would continue to play wide receiver for the rest of his career with incoming freshmen quarterback Shane Morris set to arrive in Ann Arbor next season. Now, after seeing the possibilities, it would be foolish to move Gardner back to receiver. Yes, Michigan is set to be thin at that position next season. But as we saw early in the year, he wasn’t as much of a threat when he had to rely on the quarterback to get him the ball before he could do anything. And he certainly isn’t likely to be a threat when a true freshman (Morris) is lining up under center. I know Morris is good and all, but freshmen are rarely able to come into major college football and make a major impact right off the bat. Unless, of course, you are Johnny Manziel, which Morris is not. With Gardner likely to receive a fifth year of eligibility from the NCAA, that means two more seasons of Gardner at QB. That also means that Morris can redshirt for a year and by the time it’s his time to play, he will still have three years of eligibility. Michigan is looking good at quarterback for the near future.

Jake Ryan will be the leader of the Michigan defense next season (Detroit News photo)

A moment ago I touched on Borges and his play-calling. Over the last two seasons, we have all been frustrated at times with his inability to use Denard in ways which would take advantage of his unique skill set. Well, with Denard not a consideration any longer, Borges won’t have to spend time building a game plan each week for Denard. Instead, Borges can use his time to game plan only one offensive style. Not multiple. Being an offensive coordinator at a major college football program is not an easy job I’m sure. But if Borges is able to spend less time on something that wasn’t really in his nature to use anyway, the Michigan offense may be better off. In no way am I advocating that the loss of Denard is a good thing, just saying that it may be better for a coordinator like Al Borges. Only time will tell.

The biggest holes that will need to be filled this offseason are at receiver and on the offensive line. Since it is often easy for young players to make an impact at receiver, the bigger worry for me is the line. This season, the line wasn’t great, even with Taylor Lewan. With his departure for the NFL, Michigan loses three starters that will likely be replaced with younger players. Guys like Kyle Kalis, Blake Bars, and any one of the five or six incoming freshmen will have to step up and play well for the Michigan offense next season.

How about the other side of the ball? For the past two seasons, the defense has been consistently good, due in large part to the schemes of defensive coordinator Greg Mattison. In 2012, according to the numbers, its strength was its pass defense. They were weaker while trying to defend the run due to less talent on the defensive line. Throughout the season, I wasn’t convinced that the Michigan defense was truly a Top 5 pass defense. I think those numbers were due in large part to the competition they were playing. All but one of their opponents this season (Alabama) ran a run-first offense, and even Alabama ran a very balanced attack. The Outback Bowl proved this to be true.  South Carolina gashed the Wolverines through the air, consistently getting behind the deepest level of the secondary and finding the open holes in the defense.

With Hoke's recruiting classes, Michigan is in good hands (AP photo)

The bottom line is that Michigan must get faster in the secondary. Losing J.T. Floyd due to suspension because he cared more about doing drugs than being there for his team didn’t make a difference. He wasn’t that good anyway. And Jordan Kovacs, while an important leader for the team as a whole, was not a coverage guy. He thrived playing at the line of scrimmage and aiding in the run defense. More speed in the secondary, and the continued development of guys like Courtney Avery, Raymon Taylor, and the incoming group of freshmen will help. Certainly, the return of Blake Countess will be a huge plus as well.

With the loss of only William Campbell and Craig Roh, the defensive line should be as good or better next season. Guys such as Frank Clark, Quinton Washington, Ondre Pipkins, and Jibreel Black all made impacts this year. There are also a number quality defensive line recruits from the last two seasons who have been waiting for their opportunity to play, including Tom Strobel and Chris Wormley.

We all know that the linebacking corps is the strength of the defense. Jake Ryan, Joe Bolden, and Desmond Morgan are the leaders. The loss of Kenny Demens will be felt somewhat, but in comes guys like Cam Gordon, Royce Jenkins-Stone, and James Ross to earn the privilege of playing for the Michigan defense.

The prospects for 2013 are bright. Head Coach Brady Hoke has this team headed in the right  direction and the Top 10 recruiting classes which he has managed to bring in will keep that momentum going. Next season should be an exciting one, as Michigan will be in a better position to play for the Big Ten title. Go Blue!

South Carolina 33 – Michigan 28: Big plays doom Wolverines in Outback

Wednesday, January 2nd, 2013


For the last four years, the Michigan offense, led by Denard Robinson has been a big play waiting to happen. On Tuesday afternoon, in Denard’s swan song, it was the South Carolina offense that took advantage of big play after big play to beat Michigan 33-28 in the Outback Bowl. None was bigger than a 32-yard touchdown pass from Dylan Thompson to Bruce Ellington with 11 seconds left to serve as the winning score.

South Carolina 33 – Michigan 28
Final Stats
28 Final Score 33
8-5, 6-2 Record 11-2, 6-2
355 Total Yards 426
141 Net Rushing Yards 85
214 Net Passing Yards 341
24 First Downs 17
2 Turnovers 1
4-55 Penalties – Yards 5-44
3-144 Punts – Yards 3-123
37:59 Time of Possession 22:01
8-of-19 Third Down Conversions 3-of-10
3-of-4 Fourth Down Conversions 1-of-2
3-18 Sacks By – Yards 3-22
3-for-3 Field Goals 0-for-2
1-for-1 PATs 3-for-3
5-for-5 Red Zone Scores – Chances 1-for-2

In the first quarter, it looked as if South Carolina was going to run away with the game, as Connor Shaw hit Damiere Byrd for a 56-yard touchdown on the third play of the game. Michigan answered with a 39-yard field goal two drives later. Carolina forced Michigan to punt on its next possession, but Ace Sanders returned the punt 63 yards for a touchdown to put SC ahead 14-3. It was the first punt return Michigan had allowed for a touchdown since Ohio State’s Ted Ginn in 2004.

Michigan put together a 11-play, 76-yard drive that was capped off by a 5-yard touchdown pass from Devin Gardner to Drew Dileo to bring Michigan within four. But South Carolina once again used a big play to set up a score. A 70-yard pass from Thompson to Nick Jones gave the Gamecocks a first-and-goal on the Michigan four, and on the next play, Thompson connected with Sanders for a touchdown to put SC ahead 21-10.

On South Carolina’s next possession, Mario Ojemudia forced a Kenny Miles fumble that was recovered by Jake Ryan at the SC 31. Michigan advanced to the 16, but Gardner was sacked on 3rd-and-6, forcing Michigan to kick a 40-yard field goal. On that drive, Michigan converted a fake field goal for a first down when Dileo ran seven yards on 4th-and-6. South Carolina took a 21-13 lead into the half.

Michigan went three-and-out on its first possession of the second half, and on South Carolina’s second play, Shaw rushed 64 yards to the Michigan 11. After three incompletions, the Gamecocks lined up for a 33-yard field goal and missed.

Michigan put together an 11-play drive that ended in a 52- yard field goal by Matt Wile to pull within 21-16. When South Carolina got the ball back, it faced a 4th-and-7 on the Michigan 35 and Steve Spurrier elected to go for it. The Michigan pressure forced Shaw to roll to his right, and as he tried to pump fake, the ball slipped out of his hands and went out of bounds. Michigan took over and drove 65 yards in nine plays and took the lead on a 10-yard touchdown pass from Gardner to Jeremy Gallon. The Wolverines converted a 4th-and-1 on the drive, when Gardner romped through the middle for a 19-yard gain. The two-point attempt failed and Michigan held a 22-21 lead as the fourth quarter began.

Three Michigan defenders look on as Bruce Ellington scores the winning TD with 11 seconds remaining (Al Messerschmidt, Getty Images)

South Carolina put together a 10-play drive to open the fourth, but Michigan blocked a 43-yard field goal attempt. Michigan then faced a 4th-and-4 from its own 37 and ran a fake punt that appeared to be just millimeters short. But the refs ruled it a first down, and after reviewing the play, upheld the call. On the very next play, All-American SC defensive end Jadeveon Clowney made the biggest play of the game, bolting untouched into the backfield and slamming Vincent Smith just as he received the handoff. The hit knocked Smith’s helmet into the air and the ball to the ground, and Clowney recovered, giving the Gamecocks the ball at the Michigan 31.

One play later, Shaw found Sanders for a 31- yard touchdown pass to give SC the lead once again. The two-point conversion was no good and SC led 27-22 with 8:06 remaining.

Not to be outdone, Michigan mounted a 10-play, 64-yard drive that was capped off by a 17-yard touchdown pass from Gardner to Gallon on 3rd-and-13. Once again, the two-point conversion attempt failed, and Michigan held a 28-27 lead with 3:29 to play.

South Carolina too over on its own 30, and three plays later found itself facing a 4th-and-3. But Shaw connected with Sanders for a six-yard gain to keep the drive alive. Six plays later, SC was had a 2nd-and-10 at the Michigan 32, and that’s when Thompson connected with Ellington for the winning touchdown.

Michigan’s last second comeback attempt failed when Gardner’s pass was incomplete, and South Carolina won 33-28.

Gardner finished the day 18-of-36 for 214 yards, three touchdowns, and an interception. Denard led all rushers with 23 carries for 100 yards, while Gallon caught nine passes for 145 yards and two touchdowns. As a team, Michigan gained 355 yards, but gave up 426.

Denard finished his career as the all-time FBS leader for rushing yards by a quarterback and also second in Michigan career rushing yards behind only Mike Hart. Roy Roundtree finished his career sixth in career receiving yards, just behind Mario Manningham.

Michigan falls to 20-22 all-time in bowl games and 23-8-1 all-time against SEC schools. Stay tuned for continued coverage, analysis, and a look ahead to next season in the days and weeks to come.

M&GB Staff Predictions: South Carolina

Monday, December 31st, 2012


Last time Michigan took the field, Sam was almost exactly right with his prediction of 27-21 Ohio State. The actual score was 26-21. It was Sam’s second win of the season, moving him into a tie with Chris, Josh, and Katie for second. If any one of them win this week, he or she will tie Matt for the weekly title. If not, Matt will win it outright. This is a tough one to pick because nobody really knows how Denard will be utilized and we aren’t that familiar with South Carolina. The Gamecocks are favored to win, so let’s take a look at our picks:

M&GB PREDICTION SUMMARY

____________________________

Justin: Michigan 20 – South Carolina 24

Chris: Michigan 17 - South Carolina 30

Josh: Michigan 21 – South Carolina 31

Sam: Michigan 17 – South Carolina 27

Katie: Michigan 30 – South Carolina 24

Matt: Michigan 31 – South Carolina 28

___________________________

Average: South Carolina 27 – Michigan 23

Justin (1): I’ve said it several times already, but I think Al Borges will determine who wins this game. South Carolina has a very good defense led by outstanding pass rusher Jadeveon Clowney and if Michigan’s offense is as predictable as it was in the second half of the Ohio State game, Michigan doesn’t stand a chance. I do think Michigan has the advantage of getting five weeks to prepare. Yes, both teams get that amount of time, but the way the offense changed when Denard was replaced at quarterback by Devin Gardner negates any advantage South Carolina’s defensive staff has to look at film. Nobody truly knows how Denard will be utilized and it’s up to Borges to call a great game, using Denard all over the field in a variety of packages and giving him the threat of throwing it. That’s the only way to keep South Carolina’s defense on its heels.

The Gamecocks will look to run right at Michigan and exploit J.T. Floyd’s replacement, Courtney Avery. Steve Spurrier will employ a two-quarterback attack to try to keep Michigan’s defense off balance. Connor Shaw is a dual threat, while Dylan Thompson is a more traditional passer.

It will take a flawlessly executed game by Michigan’s offense to win and I don’t see that happening. It will be a close game, but South Carolina’s defense will be too much for Michigan to execute perfectly. For more, see the First Look, this morning’s Game Preview,  Friday’s Friend vs Foe, or my Q&A with Garnet and Black Attack.

South Carolina 24 – Michigan 20

Chris (2): This bowl matchup presents an interesting matchup for the Wolverines. South Carolina started the season with stud running back Marcus Lattimore in the backfield, but he was lost to a gruesome knee injury mid-way through the year. Since then, the Gamecocks have lacked a real threat in the running game and have gone to a more wide-open spread attack with mobile QBs Connor Shaw and Dylan Thompson. For being a Steve Spurrier coached team, South Carolina doesn’t pass as much as you would think.

Connor Shaw started most of the season but will share time with Dylan Thompson on Tuesday

On the other side, Michigan has lacked a true running game all season. Other than when Denard Robinson or Devin Gardner has run the ball, Michigan has been unable to move the ball on the ground. Like South Carolina, Michigan only really throws the ball when they have to. Once Denard injured his elbow during the Nebraska game, Gardner was able to provide a spark in the passing game despite not having played the position much so far in his Michigan career.

In 2012, defenses led both of these teams. Michigan led the NCAA in total pass defense for the majority of the season but was not very good against the run. South Carolina, on the other hand, looked to have one of college football’s best total defenses early on, but they were exposed in back-to-back weeks against LSU and Florida.  Still, they are good against both the run and pass due to their overall defensive talent and speed.  They also feature an outstanding pass rush, led by a freak of a player in All-American defensive end Jadeveon Clowney.

I think Michigan is going to have their hands full in this game. Without a running game to keep the defense honest, South Carolina will be able to focus on containing Robinson and Gardner in the backfield. As long as they don’t rush too quickly upfield, they should be able to limit their ability to escape the pocket. Even if they do get out in space, South Carolina is fast enough to limit their total yardage.  I do think Michigan will be able to limit South Carolina in the passing game, but it won’t matter as that’s not the focus of the Gamecock offense. South Carolina will feature a balanced attack with a mobile QB and a lot of overall speed. While I’ll be cheering for the Wolverines, I think South Carolina wins.

South Carolina 30 – Michigan 17

Josh (2): Michigan has a chance to once again beat an SEC team. Something the rest of the Big Ten can’t seem to do lately; I’m talking to you Ohio St.

With Devin Gardner solidified as the starting QB, Michigan has gained a legit passing threat and Denard will no doubt be featured at various positions in his Wolverine finale. Just what those positions may be is yet to be determined, but rest assured he’ll be out there doing everything he can to help Michigan win another bowl game for Brady Hoke. Given Al Borges’ tendency for crappy play calling in big games recently I am not so optimistic heading into this match up. South Carolina isn’t as explosive on offense as they were with Marcus Lattimore but they aren’t anything to scoff at. However, Michigan’s defense should be able to keep the Gamecock’s offense in check giving the offense a chance to put some points on the board.

Jadeveon Clowney has been dominant all season

With the recent addition of a passing game Michigan know only needs to find its running game. With Fitz out that task rests on the shoulders of Denard Robinson, Thomas Rawls and Vincent Smith. I’m not sure who will step up, if anyone, but someone needs to help Gardner out with a rushing attack. Given what we’ve seen thus far, I’d say Denard is our only chance of having a rushing game though. If he can stay healthy and on the field, Michigan has a chance to win the game. But the Gamecock defense will be doing everything they can to hit Denard and hit him hard every time he has the ball. If Denard isn’t out there every play Michigan’s chances of winning this game drop dramatically. The Gamecock’s defense is not one you want to face with a one-dimensional offense.

The heart of that defense is what scares me (and most other teams) the most, Jadeveon Clowney. For me this game will come down to Michigan’s ability to keep Clowney from being a disruptive force as he has been all season. I just don’t see that happening. Taylor Lewan is an All-American, but I’m not so sure he’s even worthy of being an All-Big Ten lineman. I expect South Carolina to move Clowney around the defensive front to give Michigan different looks and to exploit mismatches as often as possible. Gardner and Denard are both great athletes and not prone to taking sacks, and Clowney may not rack up any sacks or TFL’s but I still think he will leave his fingerprints all over the outcome of this game.

Gardner is mobile and can definitely make plays but I just don’t see Michigan coming out of this one with a win if they cannot get the run game going as well. South Carolina’s defense is better than OSU’s, and poor play calling aside, the Buckeyes shut us down in the 2nd half of that game. The Ole Ball Coach is a wily veteran and as much as it pains me to predict a Michigan loss, that is what I am doing. I sure hope I’m wrong though!

South Carolina 31 – Michigan 21

Matt (3): What a great time of year this is. Although the end of the season always brings disappointment, knowing we won’t get that college football experience until next August, bowl games and the National Championship are always something to get excited for.

We Michigan fans haven’t had the greatest year, seeing as Michigan lost four games. Although, when you look at the losses, it’s not as bad as it seems. Losing to Alabama and Notre Dame, who are currently ranked #1 and #2 and will be meeting on January 7th in the National Championship Game, isn’t something to be too down on. The loss against Ohio State hurts, but they did go undefeated. The Nebraska loss was tough, and many feel if Devin Gardner came in instead of Russell Bellomy that it would have been a whole different ball game. But enough about that.

Dylan Thompson's great game against Clemson earned him playing time in the Outback

Michigan will be playing a New Year’s Day bowl game, the Outback Bowl, against the South Carolina Gamecocks. Another Big Ten vs SEC matchup.

If you compare ratings, these teams are similar. South Carolina gets the edge in rushing yards per game, but they are without Marcus Lattimore. The Gamecocks get the edge in passing yards per game as well, with Connor Shaw leading the team. Shaw has had an impressive year.

Michigan still has the dual-threat combination of Denard Robinson and Devin Gardner at quarterback, although we aren’t sure how Al Borges will decide to use them in the bowl game. Will they both be on the field at the same time? Or will they split snaps?

Looking at stats, South Carolina has held teams to less points compared to Michigan, but not by that many.

I think the key to Michigan gaining this victory is how Al Borges decides to play Devin Gardner and Denard Robinson. If you have both of these incredible athletes on the field, you have the defense spread thin, having to cover both men very heavily.

Both are a huge threat at any position they play, although I prefer seeing Gardner at quarterback while Robinson is at running back or receiver.

It’s going to be a tough game for the Michigan Wolverines. South Carolina plays in the SEC. We all know the SEC is a top notch conference. Their only losses were at the hands of Florida and LSU. Michigan is definitely going to have their hands full. But I see Brady Hoke, Al Borges and Greg Mattison having these guys ready. And at the end of the 4th quarter, I see Michigan winning by a small margin.

Write it down folks! Michigan wins this one, 31-28. Go Blue!

Michigan 31 – South Carolina 28

Sam (2): [Sam didn't get a chance to submit a full write-up, but submitted his score prediction].

South Carolina 27 – Michigan 17

Katie (2): The outlook for this game looks to be pretty even. South Carolina is ranked just out of the top ten, and Michigan just inside the top twenty. Their defenses are #12 and #11, respectively. As for the offensive side of the ball, neither are in the top fifty, though the Wolverines do rank in at #6 in third down conversion, while the Gamecocks are a considerably lower #43. Michigan is also #40 in rushing offense, and while their opponent can’t better that they also lost their leading rusher Marcus Lattimore to a horrific knee injury this season. Michigan however, was able to bring back their wounded star for the Ohio State game, and though Robinson won’t likely be passing he still has the potential to be lethal with his feet, and perhaps even deadlier in some type of wildcat offense alongside Devin Gardner. But the Gamecocks won’t be any pushover even against a potent Michigan backfield, as they have a formidable rush and red zone defense, and a long tally of intercepted passes that will test the Wolverines oft scoring offense.

With the defenses being on par with each other, this match-up will be about how the offenses break down the opposing side. And Michigan should look to keep South Carolina to under 21 points, as only two losses were when they scored three touchdowns or less, and because they scored 30 or more points in seven games. With an average of just over 13 yards a catch offense, Carolina will keep Michigan’s #2 pass defense on their toes. Which means that the coaches will have to know what to dial in to switch up the game plan in case their team finds itself in a rut.

Overall, it looks to be a great New Year’s day game.

Michigan 30 – Ohio State 24

Outback Bowl preview: Michigan vs South Carolina

Monday, December 31st, 2012


[I did a Q&A for the fantastic South Carolina site Garnet and Black Attack, which you can read here. You can also read their game prediction here. Hint: they don't pick Michigan.]

A month has passed since Michigan last set foot on the gridiron, yet the sour taste of defeat from that post-Thanksgiving Saturday has not escaped. Because of the rivalry nature of the game and the way it went down, it will continue to sting, but there’s one thing that can at least wash it down until next season: Gamecock.

Michigan is historically average in bowl games (20 wins in 42 appearances), but has won two of its last three and also won the last Outback Bowl it played in 10 years ago.

Raymond James Stadium  -  Tampa, Florida
1pm EST  -  ESPN
______________

South Carolina Head Coach: Steve Spurrier (8th season)
Coaching Record: 65-37 (207-77-2 overall)
Offensive Coordinator: Shawn Elliott/Steve Spurrier Jr.
Defensive Coordinator: Lorenzo Ward
Returning Starters: 11 (6 offense, 5 defense)
Last Season: 11-2 (6-2)
Last Meeting: Michigan 34 – South Carolina 3 (1985)
All-time Series: Tied 1-1
Current Streak: Michigan 1

In the grand scheme of things, this game won’t have much significance for the program, win or lose, since it’s still in the process of being rebuilt, but it goes without saying that a win would give the team some momentum heading into the offseason.

Perhaps the main thing riding on the game is Denard Robinson’s legacy. The lovable, dreadlocked highlight-reel waiting to happen will long be remembered as one of the greats to ever don the maize and blue, but can he shed the perception that he can’t win big games? To go in depth on the topic is for another story, but a great performance against a great defense on the national stage would be a fitting sendoff for the man who has given the program the face of a Michigan Man through the tumultuous times.

South Carolina will be the fourth team in the AP top 11 that Michigan has faced (would be BCS Top 10 if Ohio State were eligible). Michigan lost to the other three. The Gamecocks are statistically very similar to Michigan, but lost just two games, to LSU and Florida in back-to-back weeks in October. The Gamecocks avoided playing Alabama and Texas A&M, and played a non-conference schedule of East Carolina (8-5), UAB (3-9), Wofford (9-4 FCS), and Clemson (10-2).

When South Carolina has the ball

As we showed in our First Look, South Carolina averages about a point more than Michigan and gives up about a point less. Michigan has the better rushing game by about 45 yards per game, while South Carolina has the better passing game by about 30.

One of the most interesting aspects to watch will be how Steve Spurrier utilizes his two quarterbacks. Connor Shaw was the starter for most of the season and completed 67.3 percent of his passes for 1,732 yards, 15 touchdowns and seven interceptions. He’s also the team’s third leading rusher with 339 yards, but averages just 2.8 yards per rush, sacks removed. His 173.2 passing yards per game ranked 11th in the SEC, but he avoided making mistakes for the most part. His best game of the season came against Tennessee when he threw for 356 yards and three touchdowns. His worst game was a 9-for-20, 72-yard performance against Florida.

Ace Sanders is the main offensive threat for SC (Joe Robbins, Getty Images)

The other quarterback in the equation is sophomore Dylan Thompson who started two games, against East Carolina and the season finale against Clemson. In those two, he completed 44-of-78 passes for 640 yards, six touchdowns and just one interception. He also played considerable time against Florida, completing just 8-of-20 passes for 83 yards and an interception. He’s not the runner Shaw is, but obviously has the better arm.

Shaw is accurate when given time to throw, but will either take off or throw off balance if faced with pressure. Thompson has the ability to pick Michigan’s defense apart. Spurrier has said that both will play, but what is unclear is how much of each we will see.

The running game is average at best without Marcus Lattimore who missed the final three games of the season after tearing his ACL. Lattimore had 662 yards and 11 touchdowns, averaging 4.6 yards per carry through the first eight games, but the leading rusher now is senior Kenny Miles who has 358 yards on 3.6 yards per carry. Miles’ rushing totals in the three games he was the feature back mirrored his season ypc average, but if you remove the game against FCS Wofford, it dips to just 2.7. Freshman Mike Davis split time with Miles late in the season and averaged 4.2 yards per carry on 28 attempts.

The receivers are mostly little guys of the Jeremy Gallon variety. The most dangerous is Ace Sanders, a 5’8″, 175-pound slot man who has 36 receptions for 439 yards and seven touchdowns on the season. He’s coming off his best game, a six-catch, 119-yard performance against Clemson. Bruce Ellington (5’9″) leads the team in receptions (38) and yards (564) and also has six touchdowns. He had back-to-back 100-yard games against Tennessee and Arkansas. Lattimore had the third-most receptions on the team prior to going down, while Miles has 16, 10 of which came in the final three games. Tight end Rory Anderson is third on the team with five touchdowns, though he has caught just 13 passes, while fellow tight end Justice Cunningham has 22 receptions for 287 yards.

The offensive line is ok but not great. They are big and athletic, averaging about 320 pounds, and are built to manhandle defensive linemen. But they have allowed 35 sacks on the season and haven’t given the Gamecocks much of a rush offense once Lattimore went down. Unfortunately for Michigan, the Wolverines have recorded just 19 sacks all season and may not be able to take advantage of this weakness.

Look for Carolina to try to force Michigan to stop the run at first, to see if Michigan’s defensive line can stop an SEC rushing game. Also expect the old ball coach to let Thompson try to pick apart the Michigan secondary with an underneath passing game, getting the ball to playmakers in space. Also, expect them to test Courtney Avery often, who is filling in for the suspended J.T. Floyd.

Devin Gardner will have to be decisive with Jadeveon Clowney coming after him

When Michigan has the ball

Defensively, SC has the better rush defense and Michigan has the better pass defense and Michigan gives up an average of just one fewer total yards per game. Both defenses hold opponents to 36 percent third-down conversion rate.

All of the talk heading into the game centers around the matchup between Michigan All-American left tackle Taylor Lewan and SC’s All-American defensive end Jadeveon Clowney. Clowney led the nation 13 sacks and 21.5 tackles for loss and is already talking about contending for the Heisman Trophy next season. He’s the type of freak athlete that NFL teams will love to get their hands on when he enters the NFL Draft following the 2013 season. A lot of pressure will be on Lewan to hold him in check, which virtually no one has been able to do all season, and keep the combination of Denard Robinson and Devin Gardner upright.

But Clowney isn’t the only good player the Gamecocks have on defense. The other end, Devin Taylor, has three sacks and eight tackles for loss and is a good athlete. The interior is merely average, although Michigan’s interior offensive line is just average as well, which will negate any advantage in the interior run game.

The linebackers, led by senior middle linebacker Reggie Bowens, are solid. DeVonte Holloman is a playmaker at the Spur position and free safety D.J. Swearinger is good in run support. The rest of the secondary is made up of aggressive ball hawks that are good cover men, but tend to try to make the big play or strip the ball rather than make the tackle, which leads to extra yards.

For Michigan’s offense to have any success at all, it’s going to have to feature the creativity that Al Borges displayed in the Iowa game. Michigan isn’t going to be able to line up and run right at the Gamecocks or simply rely on Gardner dropping back to pass often. He’ll have Cloweny or Taylor in his face all day. Denard is going to have to line up all over the field and be used in several different ways, both as a playmaker and a decoy. Most importantly, Borges has to show, or at least make the defense believe that Denard can and will pass the ball anytime he has it in his hands. That wasn’t the case against Ohio State and the Buckeyes shut him down in the second half.

The other third

Rushing Attempts: 19 – Denard will pass Butch Woolfolk for 6th in career rushing attempts.
Rushing Yards: 78 – Denard will pass Anthony Thomas for 2nd in career rushing yards. With 88, he will pass West Virginia’s Pat White (2005-08) for the NCAA FBS record for career rushing yards by a quarterback.
Rushing Touchdowns: 1 – Denard will pass Mike Hart for 3rd in career rushing touchdowns.
100 rushing yards: Denard will tie Tyrone Wheatley for 3rd in career 100-yard rushing games.
Pass Completions: 17 – Denard will pass Tom Brady for 5th in career completions.
Pass Yards: 211 – Denard will pass Elvis Grbac for 3rd in career passing yards.
Receiving Yards: 8 – Roy Roundtree will pass Tai Streets for 6th in career receiving yards. With 34 he will pass Mario Manningham for 5th. With 41 he will pass David Terrell for 4th.
Field Goals: 1 – Brendan Gibbons will pass Bob Bergeron for 6th in career field goals made. With 2 he will tie Ali Haji-Sheikh for 5th.

Kicker Adam Yates made 11 of 15 attempts with a long of 51. He also had two blocked. Punter Tyler Hull averaged just 39.4 yards per punt, which ranked last in the SEC. Where the Gamecocks are dangerous is on punt returns. Ace Sanders ranks fourth nationally with an average of 14.5 yards per punt return. By comparison, Gallong averages just 5.5. Sanders returned one for a touchdown and is capable of doing so at any time. Ellington is the kick returner and is merely average at 22.2 yards per.

Prediction

The outcome of this game rests squarely on Borges and his ability to find enough offensive creativity to negate Clowney. The good thing is he had five weeks to gameplan and practice with Denard in various packages and formations, as opposed to trying to throw him in during a normal game week. Denard should be much more familiar with the offense from a variety of spots than he was against Iowa or Ohio State. I think this gives Michigan an advantage over South Carolina because the Gamecocks really don’t know how Borges will utilize Denard. It’s not like they have 12 games worth of tape to study.

There won’t be much scoring in this one and. Expect a similar score as last year’s Sugar Bowl. Borges’ offense may work well early in the game, giving Michigan hope, but it will be important to sustain it as Carolina adjusts. If Lewan and Michael Schofield can’t keep Clowney and Taylor out of the backfield, it could be a long day for Michigan.

Defensively, there likely won’t be many big plays given up as SC will run right at Michigan and dink and dunk underneath. Aside from the Lewan-Clowney matchup, the Spurrier-Greg Mattison matchup will be very intriguing as both are considere masterminds on their respective side of the ball. Will Mattison be able to adjust to a multiple quarterback offense?

Overall, it will be a close game with neither team pulling away, but short of Michigan executing flawlessly on offense, it’s hard to see the Wolverines pulling it out. Let’s hope I’m wrong.

South Carolina 24 – Michigan 20

Friend vs Foe: South Carolina edition

Friday, December 28th, 2012


For the final Friend vs. Foe of the season, we are proud to welcome John Havard from the South Carolina SB Nation blog, Garnet and Black Attack. He will provide his perspective on how or why the Gamecocks can beat Michigan on Tuesday. Remember, this is not an actual game prediction. It is an attempt to describe how or why each team can win from each side of the matchup.

The case for South Carolina
by John

Michigan and South Carolina have played each other twice, splitting a home-and-home in non-consecutive seasons in the early 1980s. Interestingly enough, Carolina won the Ann Arbor game, while Michigan won in Columbia. The former occurred during George Rodgers’s Heisman season, the latter during a good 10-1-1 season for Bo Schembechler and the Wolverines. Given the sparse history between the two schools, I’m assuming most Michigan fans don’t know a whole lot about South Carolina and haven’t paid a whole lot of attention to us this year, other than perhaps during the couple of weeks during mid-season when Carolina was briefly considered a national title contender by the national media. Therefore, I’ll provide a quick rundown on what kind of team we have prior to making my prediction.

Let's hope Clowney doesn't make Michigan's line look like this

At its best, South Carolina fields a dominant, disruptive defense and a competent but no-frills offense that tries to keep the defense in a good position so the defense can dictate the nature of the game. Defensively, the team is keyed by the Gamecocks’ most recognizable player, Jadeveon Clowney. The pass rush is by far the strength of the South Carolina defense, and Clowney is likely the best in the nation where rushing the passer is concerned. The Gamecocks are also solid against the run, with good tackles and an experienced, although not spectacular linebacking corps. The main weakness is pass coverage, but the pass rush negates this weakness to a certain degree, and the secondary has played very well at times, it must also be said. The benchmark game for the Carolina defense came against Georgie, when the Gamecocks more or less completely shut down one of the nation’s most prolific offenses. This game also showcased the desired performance from the Carolina offense. The Gamecocks built a lead early on and proceeded to work the running game throughout the evening, both out of the I and in read-option spread sets. Carolina definitely passes the ball–we’re coaches by Steve Spurrier, after all–but it’s more a team that likes to pass to keep the opposing team on its toes and to strike against a gassed defense than one that lives by the pass. The exact run-pass ratio, though, depends on certain factors. We’re first of all a bit more pass-happy since Marcus Lattimore went down against Tennessee. We’re also more pass-happy when Dylan Thompson is in the game, whereas you’ll see more read-option calls with Shaw in. Both QBs will likely play, although Shaw will start.

South Carolina isn’t always at its best, though. The defense has shown weaknesses at times, particularly against excellent passing teams like Tennessee, which was able to block the pass rush competently and exploit the weaknesses in the secondary. The offense has been shut down by LSU and Florida. (One thing that should be noted about Florida, though, is that the Gators didn’t really dominate Carolina as badly as the score suggests. The Gamecocks committed several costly turnovers in that game, mostly on special teams.) If Michigan can make hay in one of these regards, it significantly increases its chances to win the game.

Can Michigan do that, though? My impression–which isn’t worth a whole lot in this particular case–is that Michigan is a team with a solid defense and an unpredictable and all-in-all unsatisfactory offense. Defensively, I see a team that’s solid in the middle but that was exploited on the perimeter against some of the better offenses it played. Offensively, the Wolverines have some great weapons, but it wasn’t able to produce consistently against the better competition. To me, Michigan’s offense against South Carolina defense favors South Carolina. I could see the Wolverines getting some big plays here and there, either with Devin Gardner passing or Denard Robinson running, but if you can’t establish a consistent running game, you’ll have trouble negating our pass rush, which will allow our defense to dictate the game. I could definitely see Michigan’s defense having success against Carolina’s offense, but if the game ends up being a defensive battle, I like South Carolina’s defense to create more turnovers, which could help us get things started offensively. If that doesn’t work, I like us to win the battle of longevit and to wear Michigan out over the course of the game. Sans turnovers, this will likely be a very close game for most of the afternoon, but I predict we pull away late in that scenario.

The case for Michigan
by Justin

This is a much better matchup for Michigan than the likely opponents the Wolverines would have faced in the Capital One Bowl, Texas A&M or Georgia. Obviously the danger man is Jadeveon Clowney, and without Marcus Lattimore in the backfield, the South Carolina offense is much less formidable.

If Michigan is to win, it will be by employing an expanded version of the offense it ran against Iowa and in the first half of the Ohio State game. Denard should be fully healthy, or at least much closer to it than he was at any point in the final two weeks of the regular season, and that should add the element of his throwing ability into the mix. Imagine him lined up at tailback, slot, split wide, and quarterback at various points in the game, with the option to pass on any given play. It would certainly make the offense much less predictable than it was in the second half of the Ohio State game when the Buckeyes admitted afterward they knew that every time Denard was in Michigan ran it, and every time Gardner was in they threw it.

Michigan needs a great and creative gameplan, utilizing both Denard and Devin in multiple ways to beat SC

I see the five-week layoff between the OSU game and the Outback Bowl as a big advantage for Michigan because it gives Al Borges so much time to gameplan and so much practice time to incorporate Denard into it. When Denard returned against Iowa and Ohio State, he didn’t have much week-to-week time to get immersed into his new offensive role, so the play-calling was limited when he was in. The extra time to prepare benefits Michigan because it can get Denard involved in more plays and packages, while South Carolina doesn’t have much tape to look at for the way Michigan’s offense has evolved late in the season.

Of course Clowney can reek havoc on offenses, so if Michigan lets Gardner or Denard sit in the pocket and try to make throws, it won’t be pretty. Some of Gardner’s biggest plays this season have come when he had what seemed like hours to move around and find an open receiver, but that’s not going to happen with Clowney coming after him.

Defensively, Michigan matches up pretty well. Most of South Carolina’s receivers are little Jeremy Gallon types, so there isn’t a dominant deep threat that can beat them. In the backfield, without Lattimore, Carolina has been merely average. In the three games since Lattimore went down, SC’s backs have averaged just 3.8 yards per carry. Take out the game against FCS opponent Wofford and the number drops to just 3.2.

The offensive line is big and decent, but has given up 35 sacks on the year, an average of about three per game, which is 104th nationally. Greg Mattison should be able to utilize some stunts and blitzes to get some pressure on whichever quarterback Steve Spurrier chooses to utilize.

Connor Shaw started most of the season, but an injury forced him to miss the finale against Clemson. His replacement, Dylan Thompson, who also saw extended time early in the season, turned in an impressive performance that earned him playing time in the Outback Bowl. How much is yet to be determined. He’s much more of a classic drop-back passer, and may be the better option for beating Michigan. He could pick apart the Michigan secondary like Trevor Siemien, James Vandenberg, and Braxton Miller were able to do late in the season. Shaw is a dual-threat and ranks third on the team in rushing. He completes 67 percent of his passes, but had horrible days in the two losses to LSU and Florida.

Overall, the teams are fairly evenly matched and it will all come down to Michigan’s ability to contain Clowney. If Taylor Lewan can hold him in check, and Borges’ play-calling is like that of the Iowa game and the first half of OSU, Michigan should be able to put up enough points to win. If not, Michigan will have a hard time outscoring the Gamecocks. Regardless, don’t expect a lopsided victory either way.

It was that a coach didn’t have confidence in his defense

Thursday, December 27th, 2012


Michigan and South Carolina don’t share a field very often, though both programs have been around since the late nineteenth century. Likely it was distance, along with different conference play, and the Big Ten’s love of playing Pac-10 schools that makes this only the third meeting between the Gamecocks and the Wolverines.

The only other two meetings were played in the eighties, when Bo was still the head coach at Michigan and Jim Carlen (1980) and Joe Morrison (’85) were calling the shots at S.C. The second matchup was more or less a blowout by the Wolverines, but the inaugural meeting was one to remember, though it’s likely that the Maize and Blue offer their remembrances with a rather imposing garnish of sour grapes.

1980: South Carolina 17 – Michigan 14

Anthony Carter caught two touchdowns against South Carolina in 1980

Michigan went into the third game of the 1980 season a solid favorite against its newly acquainted southern opponent. And as expected, the Wolverines got off to a good start putting up a pair of touchdowns thanks to the sure-handed Anthony Carter. Michigan held the Gamecocks to a field goal before both teams headed for the tunnel to prepare for the second half, which was went the tides turned.

On its first possession, Michigan marched down the field to just inside the ten. Then came the blunder, a Stan Edwards fumble into the endzone recovered by South Carolina. The Gamecocks countered with a swing of their own, only they landed the blow with the help of soon to be Heisman Trophy winner George Rogers – the first in Gamecock history. Michigan 14 – South Carolina 10.

On Michigan’s next drive, Schembechler made a decision to attempt the fourth down conversion on his own 29-yard line. They were stopped short. Carolina ball. Touchdown. Game over.

Bo took the blame for the loss, saying “It was that a coach didn’t have confidence in his defense…we should have punted.”

The Wolverines would go on to win the Big Ten Championship, garner a Rose Bowl victory against Washington, and end up No. 4 in the final rankings with a 10-2 record. While Bo took the blame for not trusting his defense, the defense did not allow a single touchdown the final 22 quarters of the season. But that filed fourth down attempt that led to the Gamecocks’ winnings score and one of Michigan’s seven losses in 28 games against SEC opponents likely still has Bo turning in his grave.

1985: Michigan 34 – South Carolina 3

The second faceoff between the two teams washed some of the bitterness from the mouths of Michigan fans. Jamie Morris was the 15th-ranked Wolverines’ prolific rusher, and continued his dominance against South Carolina during his sophomore year. Quarterback Jim Harbaugh had a tremendous day also, helping the Wolverines put up 34 points. However, it was also the defense which caused two fumbles, and intercepted twice (once on the final play) to solidify the win for Michigan in Columbia.

This year will mark the first time the teams have meet in nearly thirty years, and the only time they have faced in a bowl game. Since the series is tied there is motivation on the part of both teams to take a one win advantage, but it’s more likely that both schools want show that since two of their losses came against opponents ranked No. 1 and 2 (granted the two teams the Wolverines played are now to face off in the national championship, but S.C.’s losses to LSU and Florida aren’t exactly embarrassing) the quality of their team is not to be underestimated. This should be one to mirror the 1980 struggle, not the lopsided victory five years later.

5-Spot Challenge: Outback Bowl

Wednesday, December 26th, 2012



I hope you all had a Merry Christmas. If you’re like me, you’re back to work today, but some of you are fortunate enough to still be at home with family and friends…and I’m jealous of you. Regardless of where you are or what you’re doing, I hope you’ll take a few minutes to enter the final 5-Spot Challenge of the season for your chance to win one more Christmas present – a $20 gift card to The M Den.

We have had ten different weekly winners this season and crp12qb currently holds a 17-point lead over HTTV133 in the overall standings. Jim Mackiewicz and kfarmer16 are still within striking distance of the grand prize. Like last season, we are going to institute an incentive for anyone to win. If any contestant gets the final question exactly correct, he or she will receive an additional five points for each contestant entered. So if there are 20 entries this week, and someone gets the total combined yardage exactly right, that person will receive 100 bonus points in addition to his final weekly result. This is a chance, albeit slight, for almost anyone who has participated this season to win. Good luck and Go Blue!

South Carolina: first look

Monday, December 3rd, 2012


Prior to the Big Ten Championship game on Saturday night, all signs pointed towards Michigan facing probable Heisman trophy winner Johnny Manziel and Texas A&M in the Capital One Bowl. But the stunning 70-31 beatdown that Nebraska took at the hands of Wisconsin changed that. Instead, it’s the Cornhuskers who are heading to Orlando and Michigan gets a more favorable matchup against South Carolina in the Outback Bowl.

8-4 (6-2) Tuesday, Jan. 1 – 1pm – ESPN 10-2 (6-2

Steve Spurrier’s squad went 10-2 overall and 6-2 in the SEC, finishing third in the SEC East behind Georgia and Florida. The only two losses were in back to back weeks to Florida and LSU, coming on the heels of a 35-7 win over Georgia – the Bulldogs’ only loss prior to the SEC Championship game. The loss to LSU was close (23-21) when the Gamecocks had climbed to No. 3 in the national rankings. The following week, however, SC was throttled by Florida 44-11. Despite allowing 44 points, Carolina’s defense held Florida to just 183 total yards.

The only other ranked team South Carolina beat was then-No. 11 Clemson in the final week of the season, 27-17. The rest of non-conference schedule featured 8-4 East Carolina, 3-9 UAB, and 9-3 Wofford – an FCS school.

With a very tough bowl slate due to Ohio State and Penn State being ineligible for postseason play, the Big Ten doesn’t stand much of a chance this bowl season, but can Michigan do its part? Let’s take a closer look at the matchup.

South Carolina 2012 Statistics & Michigan Comparison
South Carolina Michigan Rank Opponent Rank
Points Per Game 31.4 | 30.0 43 | 57 17.4 | 18.8 13 | 16
Rushing Yards 1,715 | 2,248 1,428 | 1,872
Rush Avg. Per Game 142.9 | 187.3 84 | 39 119.0 | 156.0 15 | 57
Avg. Per Rush 3.6 | 4.9 3.1 | 3.8
Passing Yards 2,754 | 2,377 2,319 | 1,862
Pass Avg. Per Game 229.5 | 198.1 65 | 95 193.2 | 155.2 17 | 2
Total Offense 4,469 | 4,625 3,747 | 3,734
Total Off Avg. Per Game 372.4 | 385.4 87 | 80 312.2 | 311.2 12 | 11
Kick Return Average 20.9 | 22.1 73 | 54 23.5 | 23.1 97 | 92
Punt Return Average 13.4 | 8.6 15 | 63 4.0 | 7.6 12 | 59
Avg. Time of Possession 30:25 | 29:31 48 | 75 29:35 | 30:29
3rd Down Conversion Pct 43% | 51% 43 | 6 36% | 36% 35 | 33
Sacks By-Yards 40-253 | 19-166 5 | 85 35-242 | 15-109 104 | 25
Touchdowns Scored 49 | 45 24 | 23
Field Goals-Attempts 11-15 | 15-18 14-17 | 21-28
Red Zone Scores (38-46) 83% | (38-41) 93% 45 | 4 (28-39) 72% | (33-40) 82% 14 | 69
Red Zone Touchdowns (30-46) 65% | (26-41) 63% (17-39) 44% | (18-40) 45%

On paper, Michigan and South Carolina are pretty comparable. Both have average offenses and very good defenses. Michigan scores 30 points per game, while SC have averaged a little over a point more. Carolina gives up 17.4 points per game, while Michigan gives up a little over a point more. Michigan has the better rushing game, the ‘Cocks have the better passing game, but total yards are only 13 more in Michigan’s favor. Defensively, the two allow nearly the exact same number of yards per game – Michigan gives up one yard less. It’s hard to get more evenly matched.

Connor Shaw won't be the best QB Michigan has faced, but completes 67% of his passes and is capable with his legs

South Carolina’s offense was dealt a huge blow on Oct. 27 against Tennessee when star running back Marcus Lattimore suffered a season-ending knee injury – for the second straight season. He had 662 yards and 11 touchdowns on 4.6 yards per carry prior to the injury. His replacement, senior Kenny Miles, has averaged just 3.6 yards per carry in his stead. However, that was helped out by a 127-yard game against FCS Wofford. In the three games against BCS competition, that number dips to 2.9.

Quarterback Connor Shaw is the team’s third leading rusher with 339 yards on 112 carries and has completed 67.3 percent of his passes. He’s only averaging 173.2 yards per game through the air, which ranks 11th in the SEC, but he does have a 15-7 touchdown to interception ratio. Against Tennessee, he threw for 356 yards and three touchdowns, but against Florida he was held to just 72 yards on 9-of-20 passing. However, Shaw didn’t start the team’s final game against Clemson due to a foot injury. That went to sophomore Dylan Thompson who chucked it up 41 times for 310 yards and three touchdowns. Shaw will likely start against Michigan.

The receiving corps is mainly a two-man show with Bruce Ellington and Ace Sanders getting the most receptions – 38 and 36, respectively. Ellington had back to back 100-yard games against Tennessee and Arkansas, while Sanders had a 119-yard game against Clemson and leads the team with seven touchdowns. Tight end Justice Cunningham has 22 catches for 287 yards but has yet to catch one in the end zone, fellow tight end Rory Anderson has just 15 catches but five have gone for touchdowns.

The offensive line has given up 35 sacks, which ranks 12th in the SEC, and has paved the way for just 142.9 yards per game on the ground. Michigan’s defensive front hadn’t gotten to the quarterback much all season, but played well against Ohio State, so that gives reason for optimism.

Defensively, South Carolina is one of the best in the country at getting to the quarterback and will present perhaps an even tougher challenge for Devin Gardner and Denard Robinson. Led by sackmaster Jadeveon Clowney, the Gamecocks lead the SEC and rank fifth nationally with 40 sacks. Clowney has 13 of them. To put that in perspective, Ohio State’s defense which sacked Michigan four times finished the season with 30.

Carolina is very good against both the run and the pass, ranking 15th and 17th nationally. The rush defense ranks fourth in the SEC, allowing just 119 yards per game, while the pass defense gives up 193. The ‘Cocks held seven opponents under 20 points and five to 10 or fewer. But in the second half of the season, when the schedule got tougher, they allowed a full touchdown more per game. Toss out Wofford and it’s nearly 11 points more than the season average.

Jadeveon Clowney may be the best pass rusher in college football

Opposite of Clowney, end Chaz Sutton has five sacks, while another end, Aldrick Fordham, has 4.5. The leading tackler is Shaq linebacker Shaq Wilson with 77. He also has two sacks and two interceptions.

One thing South Carolina isn’t good at is punting. The Gamecocks rank last in the SEC with a net average of just 36 yards per punt as a team. Punter Tyler Hull averages 39.4. In the return game, Sanders handles the punt returns and has taken one for a touchdown. He’s the top returner in the conference, averaging 14.5 yards per.

It will be the first matchup between the two schools since 1985 when Michigan went to Columbia and won 34-3. The only other previous meeting was a 17-14 loss in 1980, so this will be the rubber match. Michigan is 23-7-1 all-time against schools from the SEC – 7-4 in bowl games – and will be looking to even its all-time bowl record at 21. Stay tuned for much more about the matchup in the weeks leading up to New Year’s Day.

The Michigan Medley analyzes Michigan’s bowl outlook

Thursday, November 29th, 2012


With an 8-4 record and a second place finish in the Big Ten Legends Division, Michigan is obviously headed to a bowl game. Since Ohio State and Penn State are both ineligible for postseason play, Michigan’s bowl destination will be better than it would have been had the 12-0 (8-0) Buckeyes and 8-4 (6-2) Nittany Lions been able to go bowling.

Games to watch on Saturday
Atlanta, Ga. Indianapolis, Ind.
#2 Alabama #3 Georgia #12 Nebraska Wisconsin
11-1 11-1 10-2 7-5
4pm on CBS 8:17pm on FOX

Michigan will fill the Big Ten’s second or third bowl slot behind the winner of Saturday’s Big Ten Championship game between Nebraska and Wisconsin. The winner will get the conference’s guaranteed BCS bid, while the loser is unlikely to receive a BCS at-large due to the conference’s weak showing all season. There is a chance Nebraska could still get one if it loses, but the bowl committees won’t look to kindly on an end-of-season loss to a 7-5 team.

If Nebraska wins and heads to the Rose Bowl, the Capital One Bowl will choose between Michigan, Northwestern, and Wisconsin. A 7-6 Wisconsin squad is likely the odd man out despite playing in the Big Ten title game because the Badgers wouldn’t have been there if Ohio State was eligible. Michigan will travel far better than Northwestern will, and a matchup between the Wolverines and a top-tier SEC school is far more appealing than one involving the Wildcats.

If Wisconsin beats Nebraska and goes to Pasadena, Nebraska will likely get slotted into the Capital One Bowl, pushing Michigan down to the Outback Bowl in Tampa. In the previous two decades, Tampa was a familiar sight for Michigan, but the Wolverines haven’t been there since beating Florida in 2003. The bowl committee would love to get a Michigan vs. SEC matchup in Raymond James Stadium. So who will Michigan face? Depending on the outcome of the Big Ten title game as well as the other conference championships, Georgia, Florida, Texas A&M, and LSU are most likely. Let’s take a look at each team.

Likely Bowl Opponent Comparison
Points/Game 38.0 26.8 44.8 30.2
Scoring Defense 17.7 12.9 22.5 16.9
Rush Avg 190.1 194.5 235.1 179.9
Rush Def. Avg 163.4 97.0 140.9 101.8
Pass Avg 273.6 143.9 317.2 207.2
Pass Def. Avg 174.4 186.4 248.4 194.3
Total Yds Avg 463.7 338.4 552.3 387.2
Total Def. Avg 337.8 283.4 389.3 296.2
Turnovers 16 12 20 16
Takeaways 25 29 15 31
Time of Poss 28:39 33:07 28:33 31:09
3rd Down Conv. 69/150 (46%) 62/168 (37%) 102/184 (55%) 75/181 (41%)
3rd Down Def. 64/180 (36%) 49/173 (28%) 58/189 (31%) 51/167 (31%)
Sacks by/allowed 24/22 25/36 30/23 30/26
Field Goals 8-for-12 23-for-28 13-for-22 20-for-28
PATs 54-for-58 34-for-35 64-for-71 41-for-41
Red Zone pct. 35/41 (85%) 35/42 (83%) 56/64 (88%) 42/50 (84%)
Red Zone Def. 25/35 (71%) 23/32 (72%) 31/40 (77%) 24/31 (77%)
Red Zone TD pct. 30/41 (73%) 22/42 (52%) 47/64 (73%) 25/50 (50%)
Red Zone TD Def. 18/35 (51%) 15/32 (47%) 24/40 (60%) 19/31 (61%)

Georgia faces Alabama in the SEC Championship game on Saturday in what is essentially the BCS National Championship play-in game. Notre Dame awaits the winner. The loser will still probably get a BCS at-large bid because of the strength of the conference, especially if Alabama is on the losing end. But there’s a slight chance that if Georgia is blown out by the Crimson Tide, the Dawgs would fall to the Capital One Bowl and Florida will gain a BCS at-large bid.

Georgia has quietly put together an impressive season, beating then-No. 2 Florida in Athens, and outscoring opponents by an average of 38-17. But if there is a knock on the Dawgs it is the fact that the SEC scheduling allowed them to skirt playing LSU and Texas A&M and they didn’t play anybody of note in the non-conference. The only loss was a 35-7 thrashing by South Carolina on Oct. 6. The Gamecocks were the only other ranked team Georgia played all season. We will find out on Saturday whether they are for real or merely benefited from a favorable schedule.

Florida and Georgia would both present stern tests for Michigan (Sam Greenwood, Getty Images)

Florida won’t get to play in the SEC Championship game because of a 17-9 loss to Georgia. It was the Gators’ only loss of the season, although they had several close wins. Thanks to the SEC’s wacky scheduling, Florida got to face Texas A&M in Week 2, before super freshman Johnny Manziel took off, and beat the Aggies 20-17. They beat LSU 14-6, hung on against Missouri 14-7, and needed some late magic to hold off Louisiana-Lafayette 27-20. Like Georgia, the Gators didn’t play much of a non-conference schedule save the annual matchup with rival Florida State. Bowling Green, Jacksonville State, and Louisiana-Lafayette were the other opponents. If both Alabama and Georgia earn BCS bowl bids, Florida will likely be slotted into the Capital One Bowl.

Texas A&M finished the season 10-2 and 6-2 in the SEC with losses to Florida (20-17) and LSU (24-19). The Aggies feature one of the best players in college football, likely Heisman Trophy winner Johnny Manziel. They rank fourth nationally in points per game (44.8) and shook up the BCS standings by beating Alabama on Nov. 10 (29-24). Since they were in the SEC West, they didn’t have to face Georgia or South Carolina, and their non-conference schedule featured SMU, South Carolina State, Louisiana Tech, and Sam Houston State. The Aggies will likely go to the Cotton Bowl, but bowl committees would love to get a matchup of two of college football’s most exciting players, Manziel and Denard Robinson.

LSU put together a good season, going 10-2 with losses to Florida (14-6) and Alabama (21-17). In the game against Alabama, LSU moved the ball with relative ease and led the Tide 17-14 late in the fourth before A.J. McCarron hooked up with T.J. Yeldon on a screen pass that went 28 yards for a touchdown with 51 seconds left. The Tigers beat Texas A&M 24-19 on the road and South Carolina 23-21. Like the Florida and Georgia, LSU didn’t play much of an out-of-conference schedule of North Texas, Washington, Idaho State, and Towson. LSU is probably the most unlikely opponent among the group, but if Wisconsin beats Nebraska and Michigan slides to the Outback, it’s possible.

Florida and Georgia are probably the most likely, depending on the outcome of the SEC title game, which will be played Saturday at 4pm on CBS and the Big Ten title game, which will be played Saturday at 8:17pm on FOX. I would much rather face Florida than Georgia or Texas A&M. While A&M doesn’t quite have the defense the other two feature, Florida’s offense is not very good. The Gators are pretty comparable to Notre Dame with a really good defense and a lackluster offense, and Michigan hung with Notre Dame for most of the game, falling due to a cacophony of turnovers. Regardless of the opponent, it will be a tough bowl game to win for Michigan this season since they will essentially be playing up a slot or two. If Ohio State and Penn State were eligible, Michigan would probably be playing in the Gator Bowl against someone like Mississippi State.