It got hairy at the end, but Michigan pulled out its fourth consecutive road victory to stay alive in the Big Ten title race, setting up a scenario in which Michigan is forced to root for one bitter rival to beat the other.

Michigan looked as if it was going to cruise to an easy victory, opening up an 18 point lead in the first half. Penn State closed the half with a 7-0 run to head into the locker room trailing by 11. Michigan shot 14-for-20 in the first half and 7-of-10 from three-point range.

The second half was similar as Michigan widened the lead to 54-35 with 11:43 to play. But Penn State went on a 15-2 run over the next six minutes to pull within six. The lead was cut to  four with 2:40 remaining but Trey Burke took his man baseline for a layup to stop the run. From there, Michigan got a jumper from Tim Hardaway and 5-of-6 free throws to hold on for the win.

Burke led the way for Michigan with 19 points while Evan Smotrycz had his best game of the Big Ten season with 17 points on 6-of-7 shooting, 3-of-4 from three. Hardaway added 13 and Novak scored 11 to give Michigan four players in double figures. Stu Douglass was just one away with nine points.

Aside from the first 15 minutes of the game when Michigan was unconscious from the field, it wasn’t pretty, but any road win in the Big Ten is a good one, even against the last place team. Most importantly, it put Michigan in position to have a shot at its first Big Ten championship in 25 years.

We now turn our attention to the Michigan State-Ohio State game at 4pm Eastern time, needing Ohio State to win in order to result in a three-way tie for the Big Ten title.

It all comes down to Super Sunday. For the first time in 25 years, Michigan can win a Big Ten basketball championship but today it will take not one game but two to do so. Michigan visit State College for its final game of the regular season needing a win to keep its title hopes alive.

#16 Michigan v. Penn State
	Sunday, Mar. 4 1 p.m. ET ESPN State College, Pa.
22-8 (12-5)	Record	12-18 (4-13)
Ferris State 59-33 Towson 64-47 W. Illinois 59-55 #8 Memphis 73-61 UCLA 79-63 Iowa State 79-66 Oakland 90-80 Ark. Pine-Bluff 63-50 Alabama A&M 87-57 Bradley 77-66 Penn State 71-53 Minnesota 61-56 #16 Wisconsin 59-41 Northwestern 66-64 OT #9 Michigan St. 60-59 Purdue 66-64 #20 Indiana 68-56 Nebraska 62-46 Illinois 70-61 #6 Ohio State 56-51 Northwestern 67-55 OT Illinois 72-61	Wins	Hartford 70-55 Radford 62-46 LIU 77-68 USF 53-49 Youngstown St. 82-71 Boston College 62-54 Mount St. Mary’s 72-43 Cornell 74-67 Purdue 65-45 #25 Illinois 54-52 Nebraska 67-51 Iowa 69-64
#6 Duke 75-82 Virginia 58-70 #11 Indiana 71-73 Iowa 59-75 Arkansas 64-66 #3 Ohio State 49-64 #10 Michigan St. 54-64 Purdue 75-61	Losses	#2 Kentucky 47-85 St. Joseph’s 47-65 Mississippi 70-72 Lafayette 57-61 Duquesne 59-66 #16 Michigan 53-71 Northwestern 56-68 #12 Indiana 82-88 Nebraska 58-70 Minnesota 66-80 #13 Indiana 54-73 #3 Ohio State 54-78 #20 Wisconsin 46-52 Iowa 64-77 #12 Michigan St. 57-77 #17 Wisconsin 55-65 Northwestern 66-67 Purdue 56-80
66.5	Points Per Game	61.8
60.5	Scoring Defense	65.3
720-for-1,577 (45.7%)	Field Goal %	654-for-1,660 (39.4%)
657-for-1,554 (42.3%)	Def. Field Goal %	623-for-1,444 (43.1%)
247-for-705 (35.0%)	3-point %	187-for-616 (30.4%)
177-for-521 (34.0%)	Def. 3-point %	239-for-637 (37.5%)
309-for-430 (71.9%)	Free Throw %	359-for-529 (67.9%)
10.3	Free Throws Made/Game	12.0
31.1	Rebounds Per Game	34.1
31.5	Opp. Rebounds Per Game	31.9
13.1	Assists Per Game	10.9
10.6	Turnovers Per Game	12.3
4.9	Steals Per Game	6.7
2.1	Blocks Per Game	2.3
G – Trey Burke (14.5) G – Tim Hardaway (14.5)	Leading Scorer	G – Tim Frazier (18.8) G – J. Marhshall (10.3)
F – Jordan Morgan (5.7) F – Evan Smotrycz (4.8)	Leading Rebounder	G – Tim Frazier (4.8)

Penn State is in a battle of its own, for the bottom of the barrel in the Big Ten, needing a win to finish a game ahead of Nebraska for last place. The Nittany Lions enter with a 12-18 record, 4-13 in the Big Ten, the only wins over Purdue, Illinois, Nebraska, and Iowa.

PSU is led by junior guard Tim Frazier who averages 18.8 points and 4.8 rebounds per game. In the first meeting against Michigan on December 29, Frazier scored 20 points on 8-of-18 shooting. His season high was 30 against Nebraska and his low was three against Lafayette when he missed all 12 shots from the field. In Big Ten play, he’s virtually guaranteed to get his 20 points, but thankfully for the opponent, he’s about all Penn State has.

The only other Nittany Lion in double figures is sophomore guard Jermaine Marshall who averages 10.3. He scored nine against Michigan in December, hitting both of his three-point attempts, and has a season high of 22 against Boston College.

Penn State is last in the Big Ten in three-point percentage at 30.4 percent, but senior guard Cammeron Woodyard hits at a 36.8 percent clip. By comparison, only Evan Smotrycz has a better percentage for Michigan, but he has attempted 33 fewer threes. Woodyard averages 8.7 points and 4.1 rebounds per game.

In addition to not shooting well from the outside, Penn State is second to last in the conference in defensive three-point percentage, giving up threes at a 37.5 percent rate. In the first meeting, Michigan hit just 8-of-25 but still won handily.

In that meeting, Tim Hardaway Jr had his highest scoring game of the season with 26 points on 11-of-18 shooting, despite hitting just 1-of-7 threes. Also in that game, Smotrycz recorded a double-double with 10 points and 10 rebounds, while Trey Burke added 13 points and seven assists. Michigan won 71-53.

It shouldn’t be a tall task for Michigan to pull off its fourth straight road win. With a chance to shrug off the weight of the last 25 years, Michigan will be energized. Expect a lot of Hardaway who is coming off a great game against Illinois.

If Michigan wins, the focus will then turn to East Lansing where the Maize and Blue will be forced to root for one rival to beat the other. An Ohio State win would give Michigan a share of the Big Ten title along with Ohio State and Michigan State. It would also give Michigan a 2-seed in next week’s Big Ten Tournament. A Michigan State win would give State the Big Ten title alone and Michigan would take second place. It would also give Michigan the 2-seed.

Regardless of what happens in the Michigan State-Ohio State game, Michigan gets the 2-seed in the BTT with a win over Penn State. That would slot Michigan against the winner of the 7/10 game on on Friday at 6:30 EST. The 7/10 game will likely feature Northwestern and Minnesota.

Tim Hardaway Jr led all scorers with 26 points (photo by MGoBlue.com)

Michigan opened Big Ten play on Thursday night with a convincing 71-53 win over Penn State. It was Michigan’s sixth-straight win since losing to Virginia exactly a month ago.

It took the offense a few minutes to get going, but once it did, it pulled away. Evan Smotrycz scored the first bucket of the game, but Michigan went scoreless for the next three minutes. Tim Hardaway Jr hit a jumper and Trey Burke scored twice to put Michigan ahead and the Wolverines never relinquished the lead. The defense forced nine turnovers in the half.

Michigan took a 36-22 lead in the locker room and then widened the lead to 20 on a Jordan Morgan dunk three minutes into the second half. The lead got to as many as 22 at 54-32 and the closest Penn State could get was 16 as Michigan cruised to a comfortable win.

Hardaway led the Wolverines with 26 points on 11-of-18 shooting, despite connecting on just 1-of-7 three-pointers. Smotrycz turned in his third consecutive double-double with 10 points and 10 rebounds and Burke was the only other Wolverine in double figures with 13 points. He also added a team high seven assists.

Michigan shot 47.2 percent from the field and hit 13-of-15 free throws, while holding Penn State to just 26.7 percent shooting from downtown.

Michigan now has a couple of days off before hosting Minnesota (12-2, 0-1) on Sunday at 4pm.

After a week off since a 77-66 win over Bradley, Michigan returns to the hardwood tonight against Penn State in the Crisler Center. It’s the Big Ten opener for both teams and it’s vitally important to defend home court in conference play, especially in such a deep conference this season.

#16 Michigan v. Penn State
	Thursday, Dec. 29 7:30 p.m. ET Big Ten Network
10-2 (0-0)	Record	8-5 (0-0)
Ferris State 59-33 Towson 64-47 W. Illinois 59-55 #8 Memphis 73-61 UCLA 79-63 Iowa State 79-66 Oakland 90-80 Ark. Pine-Bluff 63-50 Alabama A&M 87-57 Bradley 77-66	Wins	Hartford 70-55 Radford 62-46 Long Island 77-68 South Florida 53-49 Youngstown St. 82-71 Boston College 62-54 Mount St. Mary’s 72-43 Cornell 74-67
#6 Duke 75-82 Virginia 58-70	Losses	#2 Kentucky 47-85 St. Joseph’s 47-65 Ole Miss 70-72 Lafayette 61-57 Duquesne 59-66
71.7	Points Per Game	64.0
60.8	Scoring Defense	61.7
316-for-645 (49.0%)	Field Goal %	289-for-735 (39.3%)
257-for-645 (39.8%)	Def. Field Goal %	258-for-645 (40.0%)
107-for-286 (37.4%)	3-point %	94-for-298 (31.5%)
79-for-238 (33.2%)	Def. 3-point %	106-for-302 (35.1%)
121-for-179 (67.6%)	Free Throw %	160-for-251 (63.7%)
10.1	Free Throws Made/Game	12.3
33.9	Rebounds Per Game	37.5
30.8	Opp. Rebounds Per Game	31.5
15.1	Assists Per Game	11.9
12.5	Turnovers Per Game	13.6
4.8	Steals Per Game	7.3
2.9	Blocks Per Game	2.7
G – Tim Hardaway (15.4) G – Trey Burke (13.0)	Leading Scorer	G – Tim Frazier (17.2) G – Jermaine Marshall (9.5)
F – Evan Smotrycz (6.7) F – Jordan Morgan (4.7)	Leading Rebounder	G – Tim Frazier (5.8) F – Ross Travis (4.8)

Last time out, Michigan pulled away in the last 10 minutes to beat Bradley. All five starters finished in double digits, led by Evan Smotrycz’s second-straight double-double. The sophomore scored 20 points and grabbed 10 rebounds.

Tonight, Penn State comes to town with an 8-5 record. The Nittany Lions have beaten just one team with a winning record, 7-6 Long Island, and were beaten soundly by the good-to-great teams they have played (85-47 to Kentucky and 65-47 to St. Joseph’s). Penn State did hang with 9-3 Ole Miss, but fell 72-70.

PSU is led by junior guard Tim Frazier, who averages 17.2 points and leads the team with 5.8 rebounds per game. He has scored in double figures in all but two games this season (he scored eight against St. Joseph’s and three against Lafayette on an abysmal 0-for-12 shooting night). He’s not a great three-point shooter, having connected on just 9-of-33 so far, but he attempts about eight free throws per game. He has also turned the ball over twice as many times as anyone else on the team.

No other player scores in double figures, but sophomore guard Jermaine Marshall has come on strong in the last six games. He missed time early due to disciplinary reasons, but has caught up, averaging 14.3 points over the last six games on 41.5 percent shooting and 39.1 percent three-point shooting.

The Nits have a host of other contributors that share minutes, but none that are dominant. The leading three-point shooter is freshman guard Trey Lewis who has hit 18-of-46 attempts (39.1 percent) this season.

As a team, Penn State is not a great three-point shooting team, though they like to chuck it up. The Lions have attempted 10 more threes than Michigan to this point but have made 13 fewer. They are, however, solid on the offensive glass, pulling down more than 14 offensive boards per game. For comparison, Michigan averages 8.6.

The key for Michigan defensively will be keeping Penn State from second-chance opportunities. Offensively, Michigan will have plenty of chances to knock down the three, given that Penn State is second nationally in opponent three-point attempts and the Nits allow opponents to connect on 35.1 percent of them. That bodes well for Michigan’s offense which ranks third in the Big Ten in three-point field goal percentage.

Look for a closely contested game throughout, but Michigan’s defense should be able to force enough turnovers while limiting Penn States inefficient offense enough to pick up the win. As long as the threes are falling, Michigan should win by eight-to-10 points.

When Brady Hoke was named head coach in January, he immediately set the tone by referring to Ohio State as simply Ohio and made it very clear that beating Ohio was one of the supreme goals each season. And so we at Maize and Go Blue are taking it upon ourselves to dedicate a little time each week to our rival as well. In this weekly segment, we’ll give a brief recap of the previous week’s game and what it means for Michigan. For a full rundown of our rivals’ games, see Week 1, Week 2, Week 3, Week 4, Week 5, Week 6, Week 7, Week 8, Week 9, and Week 10.

Previously on Rival Rewind, we saw Ohio State lose to Purdue in overtime. Last week, Penn State came calling in its first road game after the Jerry Sandusky allegations rocked Happy Valley. With the Big Ten Leaders Division title still in reach – albeit a longshot – and the big game against Michigan a week away, was Ohio able to focus on the task at hand and beat Penn State?

Ohio State: Lost to #21 Penn State 14-20 Record: 6-5 (3-4) Penn State traveled to Columbus for its first road trip without Joe Paterno at the helm in 46 years and came away victorious with a 20-14 win over Ohio State to clinch at least a share of the Big Ten Leaders Division. For the third straight week, Ohio State dug itself a 10-0 hole. Penn State got the ball to start the game and drove 80 yards on five plays, capped off by a 39-yard touchdown run by Stephfon Green. Ohio State started a promising drive which included a 39-yard pass to DeVier Posey, in his first game back from suspension, but a fumble by Braxton Miller took the Buckeyes out of field goal position and they had to settle for a punt. Penn State took advantage, mounting a 15-play, 54-yard scoring drive. Anthony Fera kicked a 43-yard field goal to put the Nittany Lions ahead 10-0. Ohio State answered with a 10-play, 77-yard drive of its own, capped by a 24-yard Miller touchdown run to pull within three, but Penn State came right back with a four-yard Green touchdown run. That score was set up by a 42-yard run by Silas Redd to the OSU 36 and a 20-yard pass from Matt McGloin to Derek Moye into the red zone. DeVier Posey made his return from suspension - tats and all - with four catches for 66 yards (photo by Al Behrman, AP) On Penn State’s next possession, Ohio’s Orhian Johnson picked it off and gave the Bucks the ball in PSU territory. Ohio State took advantage with a 7-yard touchdown pass from Miller to tight end Jake Stoneburner. Penn State closed out the half with a 46-yard Fera field goal to widen the lead to 20-14. Neither team could score in the second half and Penn State sent the Buckeye seniors home sad on senior day. Miller connected on 7-of-17 passes for 83 yards and a touchdown. He also led the Buckeyes in rushing with 18 carries for 105 yards and a touchdown. Posey caught four passes for 66 yards, while Dan Herron rushed for 76 yards on 18 carries. What was most surprising was the ease of which Penn State was able to move the ball on the Buckeyes defense in the first half. Penn State had the nation’s 102nd-ranked total offense heading into the game having scored just 24 total points in its previous two games against Illinois and Nebraska. The Nittany Lions racked up 239 yards rushing against the Buckeyes, averaging 6.1 yards per carry. Ohio State’s defense has gotten progressively worse as the season has gone on. What started out as the team’s strength has now given up an average of nearly 24 points per game over the last four – against Wisconsin, Indiana, Purdue, and Penn State – not exactly the class of the Big Ten as far as offense is concerned, with the exception of Wisconsin. In each of those games, Ohio State has given up at least 327 yards of offense, but it hasn’t always been the same way. Wisconsin did it through the air, throwing for 253 yards. Penn State did it on the ground with 239 rushing yards. Indiana and Purdue used a balanced attack. Offensively, Ohio State is flat out struggling. The return of Posey certainly helps, but Michigan Defensive Coordinator Greg Mattison should be able to draw up a game plan to force Miller to rely on his arm rather than his legs in much the same way he did to Nebraska’s Taylor Martinez last week. Next: The Game, Saturday v. #15 Michigan (9-2, 5-2) – 12pm on ABC Prediction: Coming Friday

For the past two and a half seasons, I have tried to remain calm and serve as a voice of reason for the current state of Michigan football. Week after week I have advocated patience for Rich Rodriguez and his coaching staff. I’ve been one of a diminishing populous all season, but the performance on Saturday has pushed my propensity to move on from mild to warm.

It wasn’t simply that Michigan lost to Penn State, but the matter in which Michigan was manhandled by a team starting a walk-on quarterback and missing almost half its starting lineup that pushed me closer to the “Jim Harbaugh, come on down!” side.

For the first half of the game, Michigan looked as if it spent the bye week shopping for Halloween costumes rather than preparing for Penn State. Two weeks of practice midway through the season usually allows a team to correct some flaws and spend some extra time gameplanning for the next opponent.

But Michigan came out with a terrible play call on the third play of the game (more on that in a minute) and proceeded to let Penn State double its season points average.

Rodriguez vowed after the loss to Iowa two weeks ago that he would spend some more time with the defense and last week he said there would be some personnel changes. Replacing linebacker Obi Ezeh with Kenny Demens worked well against Iowa, but when you’re replacing starters with freshmen, it’s not always going to work out for the better. This week, he moved safety Cam Gordon to linebacker and filled his spot with true freshman Ray Vinopal.

Vinopal made some mistakes, but the defense as a whole turned in its worst performance of the season, making Penn State’s version of Nick Sheridan look like Tom Brady. Quarterback Matt McGloin, a former walk-on, in his first career start, looked comfortable and confident all game long, picking the Michigan defense apart both short and deep. When he needed to convert a third down, he put the ball on the money with a five-yard out. When he threw deep, his receivers were open enough to make it just a long hand-off.

Michigan stopped the Penn State offense once on five drives in the first half as the Nittany Lions rolled up a 28-10 lead and only once more in the second half, right after Rodriguez stormed into the defensive huddle and laid into the defense.

The offense didn’t look sharp early on either, and it was the third play of the game that began the frustration for Michigan fans. On third-and-two from the Michigan 36, Rodriguez ran Vincent Smith up the middle out of the i-formation. He was stopped for no gain and Michigan punted, allowing Penn State to set the tone of the game. It was the sixth time this season that Smith has gotten the carry on third-and-short and Michigan has converted just three of them.

For the rest of the game, Robinson took the carries on third-and-short and converted all three, two of which he ran for eight yards or more.

Why Rodriguez and offensive coordinator Calvin Magee continue to run the 5’6″ 180-pound Smith up the middle on short-yardage plays instead of Robinson or freshman beefcake Stephen Hopkins is anybody’s guess, but for a team that needs its offense to play perfectly in order to win, that’s certainly not a play call the coaches should keep making.

On third-and-short situations this season, Robinson has carried the ball 16 times and converted 13 of them, averaging 8.3 yards per carry. When he lines up in the shotgun with a head start and blockers in front of him, it’s almost impossible to stop him from picking up the first down even when the defense knows it’s coming.

I really like Smith on screens and lined up in the slot, but banging him up the middle on short yardage plays is ridiculous. On six carries on third-and-three or less, he’s averaging two-thirds of a yard per carry, having converted only half of them. He’s much more suited for the open field than up the middle.

Still, the offense scored 31 points on Saturday and it would have been good enough to win if it had a halfway decent defense. So why is the defense so bad, and whose fault is it?

Misopogan’s latest diary on MGoBlog sums it up perfectly with this statement: “The point is this: we already thought the defense would be bad in May. Since then, almost half of the possible defensive contributors either transferred, got injured, or proved themselves mostly useless. We aren’t just the bottom of the Big Ten; without Martin, we’re probably in the middle of the MAC.”

Defensive tackle Mike Martin, the only NFL-caliber player on the defense right now, didn’t make it through the first series after re-injuring his ankle. Somewhere between seven and ten true or redshirt freshmen saw the field on defense. Any other season, most of them would be redshirting right now, but due to the aforementioned transfers (Justin Turner, Anthony LaLota, Vladimir Emilien),  injuries (Troy Woolfolk, Brandon Herron, Mike Williams), players kicked off the team (Boubacar Cissoko), and recruits who never made it to campus (Demar Dorsey, Davion Rogers, Antonio Kinard), Rodriguez wasn’t afforded that luxury. Freshmen can succeed in college football, but only when they’re surrounded by talented upperclassmen. When they’re all you have, you’re not going to win ball games consistently. That’s not an excuse, that’s reality.

Some of that was of his own making, recruiting guys with academic problems, not putting much focus on the defense for two-plus years, etc. However, as MGoBlog pointed out last week, Lloyd Carr is at least as much to blame as Rodriguez for the current woes due to the lack of junior and senior talent currently on the roster.

After Notre Dame’s loss to Tulsa on Saturday night, my father-in-law (a Notre Dame fan) said, “Our starting quarterback was out, our starting running back was out, our starting tight end was out, a starting safety was out, and a starting nose guard was out. But you know what, at the end of the day, those are all just excuses.”

It's getting close, but it's not time to fire Rich Rodriguez yet (photo by the Detroit Free Press)

That’s certainly true in our case as well. There are a lot of excuses to be made about this team right now, but I still don’t think it’s time to give up on Rodriguez yet. While the abundance of freshman causes blown coverage, missed tackles, and loads of frustration now, it can only help for the future as these players gain experience. Look at how much Denard Robinson progressed from last season to this. If the defense was this bad with Woodley, Branch, Harris, Crable, Burgess, Warren, and Hall, then it would be time to dump Rodriguez. But no one is going to confuse the current defensive roster with the squad of 2006.

And for that reason, we have to give Rodriguez one more season. If he’s still failing to compete with the Big Ten big boys, then call up Harbaugh. He’ll still be around 14 months from now.

Eighteen of Saturday’s starters return next season and the secondary will likely get its best player, Troy Woolfolk, back for his senior season. One of the four not returning is James Rogers, a receiver-turned-corner who wouldn’t even be playing if not for Woolfolk’s injury in fall camp.

Notre Dame, Nebraska, and Ohio State are all at home next season and Minnesota and Northwestern rotate back onto the schedule in place of Wisconsin and Penn State.

You can’t get rid of Rodriguez without seeing what he can do with his players now in the system for a couple of years and a favorable schedule. That’s why I’m not all the way to the Fire DickRod hehe! side of the thermometer.

The offense has gone from 20.2 to 29.5 to 35.4 points per game since Rodriguez took over and is right on track with 10 returning starters next season and one of the top high school running backs in the nation, Demetrius Hart, on his way to Ann Arbor. Now, Rodriguez needs to turn his focus 100 percent to the defense and get it to where it needs to be. If that means firing defensive coordinator Greg Robinson, I think I’m okay with that at this point, even though he hasn’t had much to work with thus far. If Rodriguez can lure West Virginia defensive coordinator Jeff Casteel to Ann Arbor, then I’d be all for it.

Under Rodriguez and Casteel, West Virginia’s defense went from 62nd in total and 109th in pass defense in 2006 to seventh in total and 14th in pass defense in 2007. Currently, Michigan ranks 106th overall and 117th in pass defense. It’s not going to make the jump that WVU made in 2007, but it will definitely be better than it is this season solely because of the experience this year’s players are gaining. If it’s even good enough to be a middle-of-the-road defense next year, that team will win a lot of games. That 2006 West Virginia team went  11-2 with such a poor defense thanks to an experienced offense with second-year starters Pat White and Steve Slaton. Denard Robinson will be a second-year starter next season and the offense will be even better than it is right now.

For all of those reasons, I still believe that this Rodriguez thing can work out. The patience is wearing thin, but it’s not broken yet.

The bye week came at just the right time for Michigan after losses to Michigan State and Iowa and allowing quarterback Denard Robinson to rest an ailing shoulder that caused him to miss extensive time in both of those losses.

Many in the media tried to play up a quarterback competition between Robinson and last year’s starter, Tate Forcier, but head coach Rich Rodriguez insists that Robinson is the starter. Indeed, if he is healthy enough, he could be in for the kind of monster game that made him a household name through the first five weeks of the season.

Michigan vs. Penn State
	Sat. Oct. 30 8 p.m. ET ESPN
5-2	Record	4-3
UConn 30-10 Notre Dame 28-24 UMass 42-37 Bowling Green 65-21 Indiana 42-35	Wins	Youngstown St. 44-14 Kent State 24-0 Temple 22-13 Minnesota 33-21
#17 Mich. State 17-34 #15 Iowa 28-38	Losses	#1 Alabama 3-24 #17 Iowa 3-24 Illinois 13-33
36.0	Scoring Offense	20.3
281.6	Rushing YPG	128.7
250.4	Passing YPG	208.7
532.0	Total Offense	337.4
28.4	Scoring Defense	18.4
144.7	Rush Defense YPG	143.9
296.3	Pass Defense YPG	187.9
441.0	Total Defense YPG	331.7
9	Takeaways	11
12	Giveaways	12
10/3	Sacks By/Allowed	9/5
41/88 (47%)	Third-down Conv.	35/95 (37%)
2/8	Field Goals	14/17
37.7	Net Punt Avg.	39

Penn State is flat out hurting. At 4-3, Penn State has given up 437 and 433 total yards the last two weeks to Illinois and Minnesota, respectively. Neither of those has an offense near Michigan’s, with Minnesota’s ranked 59th nationally and Illinois’ 88th.

While the defense hasn’t fared well, the offense has been the main disappointment for the Nittany Lions this season, ranking 82nd nationally in total offense and 99th in points per game with 20.3. Only twice this season has Penn State scored more than 30 points, in the opener against Youngstown State (44) and last week against Minnesota (33). Alabama and Iowa each held Penn State to just three points.

What has gone so wrong? Youth and inexperience is part of the problem. As Michigan found out last year, starting a true freshman at quarterback isn’t exactly a recipe for success, but Joe Paterno chose to do that with Robert Bolden.

Yet the biggest problem is that Penn State has been plagued with injuries. Five starters have been lost for the season (tackle Lou Eliades, tight end Garry Gilliam, safety Nick Sukay, receiver Curtis Drake, and tight end Andrew Szczerba), and several others, including defensive ends Jack Crawford and Eric Latimore, will miss this week’s game. Bolden is also questionable and it appears that sophomore Matt McGloin will be making his first career start tomorrow at quarterback.

If any game is ripe for the picking it’s this one, and it’s an important one. It would make Michigan bowl eligible for the first time in three years, assuring the Wolverines of avoiding a third-straight losing season, and would end a two-game losing streak, both to Penn State, and this season.

Traditionally, Rodriguez-coached teams have fared well after the bye week during his career, including in 2008 when Michigan beat then-No. 9 Wisconsin 27-25.

While Penn State players are dropping like flies, Michigan’s bye week allowed some key players to get healthy. In addition to Robinson, Michigan should get running back Michael Shaw back this week, as well as center David Molk and tackle Mike Martin.

Michigan’s offense has struggled to find a running game the past two weeks, partly because of the stout defenses of Michigan State and Iowa, but also partly because Shaw, Michigan’s starter through the first five games, has been banged up. Vincent Smith is reliable, but not the complete back that Shaw is.

Rodriguez has hinted that freshman Stephen Hopkins may see some more playing time this week. Hopkins has looked good in limited action so far this season and is the biggest back on Michigan’s roster. Supposedly, ball security in practice has kept him from seeing the field more often thus far, but he has shown enough the past few weeks to earn more time.

Getting Molk and Martin back is perhaps even more important because each is the lynchpin of his side of the ball. When Molk went down last week during the opening drive, backup center Rocko Khoury did a decent job filling in, but had a couple bad snaps. Michigan’s offense is clearly better with Molk in the middle.

Martin also had an ankle injury that happened during the Michigan State game and was reinjured against Iowa, causing him to miss much of the game. He’s the motor of the defense and with a unit that ranks 104th in total defense, his presence is obviously needed.

So how can Michigan win tomorrow? The easy answer is to score a lot of points. Penn State’s defense gives up a lot of yards, but is 22nd in the nation in points against, averaging just 18.4. However, Illinois scored 33 in a blowout win two weeks ago and Minnesota managed 21 last week.

Denard Robinson says he's 100 percent recovered from injuries suffered against Michigan State and Iowa (AP photo)

Michigan’s offense ranks 17th in the nation in scoring at 36 points per game and second in total offense. In losses the last two games, the offense was still able to move the ball, but turnovers were the difference. Avoiding those same mistakes will be the biggest factor in whether Michigan wins or loses tomorrow.

Robinson should be able to rack up yards just as Illinois running back Mikel Leshoure did a couple weeks ago, rushing for 119 yards, and Minnesota running back DeLeon Eskridge did last week, rushing for 111. Another 200-yard rushing and 200-yard passing game is within reason, but 150/150 is more likely.

Defensively, Michigan will probably get pounded on the ground, given that McGloin will be making his first career start at quarterback. However, when he replaced the injured Bolden last week, he connected on 6-of-13 passes for 78 yards, two touchdowns and an interception, and took some shots downfield. Penn State will likely try to get the running game going and then test Michigan’s young and shaky secondary.

A lot of talk has been floating around this week about freshman Ray Vinopal getting some playing time, if not starting, at safety. A similar experiment paid off last game when Rodriguez replaced senior linebacker Obi Ezeh with Kenny Demens and he provided solid run support and was at least a small upgrade from Ezeh. Can Rodrgiguez strike gold a second time? Vinopal has really only played in one game this season, against Bowling Green, but he made the most of that time, intercepting a pass in the fourth quarter.

The freshman from Youngstown, Ohio is smart and it’s certainly worth a try against a team with such a stagnant offense like Penn State. If Vinopal doesn’t work out, nothing is really lost, since Michigan’s secondary has been horrific anyway. But if he does prove a better option than Cameron Gordon at the position, Michigan will have seen two mid-season upgrades on defense heading into the final four games of the season.

Regardless, I can see Michigan forcing two or three turnovers this week from the inexperienced McGloin.

If Michigan isn’t able to put the ball in the end zone offensively and it comes down to special teams, Penn State has the clear advantage, having succeeded on 14 of 17 field goals this season, while Michigan’s kicking woes are well-known. You can be rest-assured that Rodriguez won’t try a field goal from anywhere longer than probably 30 yards, and even that is doubtful.

Fortunately, I don’t see it being that close. Michigan’s offense will be much more efficient than the past two weeks with a healthy Robinson, Shaw, and Molk. Penn State will score some points, but won’t be able to keep up with Michigan.

Prediction:

Michigan 42 – Penn State 27

From their view…

PennLive.com declares that Denard doesn’t deserve Heisman hype because he was once in a three-way tie for the starting spot with Ryan Threet and Tate Forcier (really?); The Daily Collegian talks about a record that will probably be set tomorrow; Nittany Lines predicts a Michigan win and hopes Penn State can keep Denard to just one long touchdown run; The Philadelphia Enquirer also doesn’t know how to spell the names of our quarterbacks.

Each year during the week leading up to the first Michigan game of the season, I dust off my Bob Ufer “Maximum Meechigan” album and put it on repeat. As the goose bumps spread across my forearms I’m instantly transported back to the golden era of Michigan football eagerly anticipating the return of college football.

Perhaps Ufer put it best when he said, “There are five seasons across this country every year: winter, spring, summer, fall, and football. Football season makes the barber cut hair just a little bit better, and it makes the butcher slice the steak a trifle thicker. The shoe-shine boy pops his rag with more gusto, and the landlord doesn’t mention the overdue rent.”

Bob Ufer's soundbites live on for Michigan fans even 29 years after his death

While the quote may be a bit outdated, its meaning certainly holds true today. As we reach the start of the country’s fifth season, Michigan looks to start a new golden era, and it all begins on Saturday when UConn invades the Big House.

September 4 – UConn

Randy Edsall’s Huskies return eight starters from an offense that averaged 31.2 points per game a year ago. Fortunately for Michigan, the strength of the offense is the running game, led by Jordan Todman. Both receivers are new, affording Michigan’s weakness, the defensive secondary, a chance to get its feet wet for next week’s battle at Notre Dame.

Conversely, Michigan should be able to put up plenty of points against a very young and inexperienced UConn secondary. All signs point to a shootout, but Michigan should be able to come out on top with an explosive offense led by the duo of Denard Robinson and Tate Forcier.

Michigan 37 – UConn 31

September 11 – at Notre Dame

Notre Dame has a new coach at the helm in Brian Kelly who plans to spread the ball around in an up-tempo offense. Though the Irish will be breaking in a new starter at quarterback, Dayne Crist, he has some experienced weapons in receiver Michael Floyd, tight end Kyle Rudolph, and running back Armando Allen. Michigan fans are already having nightmares of Crist to Floyd in the same way that Michigan State felt about Henne to Edwards. In other words, it could get scary.

The one saving grace for Michigan is that Notre Dame’s defense is similar to its own: strong up front, weak in the secondary. Just like the UConn game, this figures to be a shootout, but Notre Dame will have too much firepower for Michigan to keep up with on the road.

Notre Dame 33 – Michigan 27

September 18 – UMass

Michigan gets a bounce-back game to get the offense firing on all cylinders and this should be similar to last season’s Football Championship Subdivision opponent, Delaware State.

UMass returns just eight total starters and will be no match for Michigan. Devin Gardner will likely get his first action running the offense as Michigan pounds the Minutemen.

Michigan 52 – UMass 17

September 25 – Bowling Green

Much like UMass, Bowling Green won’t put up much of a fight for Michigan. The Falcons return just eight starters. Senior running back Willie Geter is good, but won’t be able to make up for the loss of the school’ second all-time quarterback and receiver.

If there’s a common theme among Michigan’s non-conference schedule, it’s lack of depth and experience in the secondary. Bowling Green doesn’t have much to work with on a defense that gave up just under 28 points per game last season.

Indiana QB Ben Chappell looks to lead one of the conference's top offenses

Michigan 46 – Bowling Green 20

October 2 – at Indiana

Last season, Indiana gave Michigan a scare in Ann Arbor. This season, Michigan needs to avoid a trap game on the road before entering the meat of its conference schedule.

Indiana is led by senior quarterback Ben Chappell, who pioneers one of the conference’s most dynamic offenses. Receiver Tandon Doss tore Michigan up a year ago and could be a tough matchup again this year for Michigan’s weak secondary.
Defensively, Indiana returns just three starters, all in the front seven. Michigan should once again light up the scoreboard in a close one.

Michigan 35 – Indiana 31

October 9 – Michigan State

Michigan State has won two straight in the rivalry and is licking its chops for a chance to make it three. Led by junior quarterback Kirk Cousins, the Spartans have one of the top offensive attacks in the Big Ten.

On defense, Michigan State has depth in the secondary but its weakness is up front. The leader on defense is All-American linebacker Greg Jones and he’s a force to be reckoned with, but Michigan should be able to move the ball on the Spartans. With the home field advantage, Michigan pulls it out.

Michigan 28 – Michigan State 24

October 16 – Iowa

The Hawkeyes could be the most complete team in the Big Ten with a senior-loaded offense and eight starters returning from one of the Big Ten’s top defenses. Quarterback Ricky Stanzi won’t be confused for Peyton Manning, but is efficient at running the offense.

Iowa’s defense gave up just 15.4 points per game last season and ranked fourth nationally in pass defense. The entire defensive line returns and should give Michigan’s offense fits for the first time this season.

Iowa 23 – Michigan 17

October 30 – at Penn State

Michigan gets the fortune of having its bye week prior to traveling to Happy Valley, which should help relieve the sting of the Iowa loss. Penn State has been one of the top teams in the Big Ten the past few years, but will be starting a true freshman quarterback, Robert Bolden, this season.

Taking a page out of Rich Rodriguez's playbook, Joe Paterno elected to start true freshman Robert Bolden at quarterback this season

Last season’s top scoring defense returns just five starters and has to replace five of its front seven. A primetime “white-out” game in Happy Valley, however, is a recipe for a Penn State win.

Penn State 26 – Michigan 21

November 6 – Illinois

With Juice Williams and Arrelious Benn gone, Illinois head coach Ron Zook finds himself squarely on the hot seat. He will likely be relying on redshirt freshman Nate Scheelhaase to guide the offense that ranked last in the Big Ten last season in conference play.

On the other side of the ball, seven starters return from the worst scoring defense in the conference in 2009. Michigan will be able to score against the Illini and bounce back from two straight losses to become bowl eligible for the first time in three years.

Michigan 33 – Illinois 17

November 13 – at Purdue

Purdue seems to be a dark horse candidate to surprise some in the Big Ten this year, but the Boilermakers face two key issues: rebuilding on offensive line and in the secondary. Head Coach Danny Hope will rely on Miami transfer Robert Marve to lead the offense, but the Boilers suffered a huge loss when running back Ralph Bolden tore his ACL in the spring.

On defense, Purdue surrendered a conference worst 173.4 rushing yards per game last season, but returns most of the front seven. The secondary is void of experience, so the defense should yield plenty of points.

Michigan 31 – Purdue 21

November 20 – Wisconsin

Like Iowa, Wisconsin features a very experienced team on both sides of the ball from a team that finished 10-3 last season and upset Miami in the Champs Sports Bowl.

Senior quarterback Scott Tolzien returns, as does junior running back John Clay. The Badgers offense ranked first in the Big Ten in scoring (31.8), rushing yards (203.9) and total yards (416.9) last season, and it only has to replace one receiver. This offense should be hard to stop with the combination of Clay on the ground and receiver Nick Toon in the air.

The defense gave up a Big Ten best 88.2 yards on the ground last year but has to replace three defensive linemen. If the replacements can hold up, Wisconsin should challenge Ohio State and Iowa for the Big Ten title. They should be too much for Michigan though.

Wisconsin 28 – Michigan 20

Ohio State QB Terrelle Pryor looks to break out this season

November 27 – at Ohio State

The final game in the Big Ten as we know it could be ugly for Michigan. Ohio State figures to be firing on all cylinders with junior quarterback Terrelle Pryor expected to break out like former Texas quarterback Vince Young did in his junior season. Pryor has senior wide receiver Dane Sanzenbacher, a virtual clone of Anthony Gonzalez, to throw to, and speedster Brandon Saine in the backfield. Four of five offensive linemen return including Michigan transfer Justin Boren.

While this should be the best offense Ohio State has had since Troy Smith graduated in 2006, the defense has some holes to fill. The defensive line needs to be retooled, but the linebackers all return, including seniors Brian Rolle and Ross Homan, the top two tacklers from a year ago.

Pryor could be looking to wrap up the Heisman with a big performance, and unless Michigan’s secondary grows up fast, it could be a long day for Michigan.

Ohio State 38 – Michigan 24

Many outside the program (and some of the Michigan fanbase) will say that 7-5 isn’t good enough for Michigan, but it’s just what Rich Rodriguez needs at this point to ramp up expectations for 2011. Getting back to a bowl game is the first step and anything more than 7-5 will be considered a huge success this year as Michigan will return 19 starters to challenge for the innagural Big Ten Championship next season.

The Big Ten announced the layout of its two divisions beginning in 2011 and Big Ten fans across the country should be happy. While there was much speculation in recent days that Michigan and Ohio State being put in separate divisions would equal doom, since it could mean moving the historic game between the two rivals to mid-season, it didn’t happen. 

Big Ten Commissioner Jim Delany came through with a layout that I believe is as good as it can get with two yet-to-be-named divisions, though I would still prefer one big conference with 12 teams where each team plays all the others. However, current NCAA rules require multiple divisions in order to hold a championship game, so if this is how it’s going to be, this announcement should please the masses.

First of all, the parity is perfect. Since Penn State joined the Big Ten in 1993, the six schools in the “O” Division have an overall record of 724-517-3 (58.3 percent), while the six schools in the “X” Division have an overall record of 708-517-9 (57.8 percent).

Narrowing down the sample size to the past decade doesn’t change the parity either, as the “O” Division had an overall record of 428-317 (57.4 percent) and the “X” Division had an overall record of 416-322 (56.4 percent).

It would appear that the “X” Division is a little bit more top-heavy with Ohio State (54-10), Penn State (51-13), and Wisconsin (48-17) ranking as the top three in the Big Ten in wins during the past five years. However, much of that disparity is a result of the past two seasons in which Michigan has gone just 8-16. In other words, when Michigan returns to form, the “X” Division won’t seem quite as top-heavy compared to the “O” Division.

The “O” Division seems to be more well-rounded from top to bottom, with only Minnesota (27-36) compiling a losing record during the last five years, while in the “X” Division, Purdue (30-32), Indiana (23-37), and Illinois (21-39) all featured losing records during that time period.

Secondly, the existing rivalries will remain intact, most importantly Michigan-Ohio State. The announcement that The Game will remain at the end of the season will satisfy the vast majority of the Ohio State and Michigan fan bases whose outcry was mentioned by both Michigan Athletic Director Dave Brandon and Ohio State Athletic Director Gene Smith on the Big Ten Network’s announcement special. Even Nebraska Athletic Director Tom Osborne confessed to receiving phone calls and emails from angry Michigan and Ohio State  fans about moving The Game, some blaming him for causing the move.

Since the two teams are in separate divisions, the door is open for the possibility of playing twice in the same season, but realistically, that should rarely happen.

Keeping The Game as the last game of the conference schedule makes it essentially a do-or-die game, preserving the core of the rivalry – the chance to either make it to the next level or salvage your season by keeping the other from advancing. And that’s the way it should be. In 14 of the past 15 seasons, The Game has had implications on the Big Ten title.

Michigan will also be able to keep its rivalries alive with Michigan State and Minnesota (for the Little Brown Jug) in the “O” Division, while also forming a divisional rivalry with Nebraska, which claims a share of the 1997 National Championship with Michigan.

Other rivalries like Ohio State-Penn State and Purdue-Indiana will be played every season as well since they fall in the same division. The conference will also preserve other rivalries, such as Minnesota-Wisconsin, as protected crossover games.

Thirdly, and perhaps least importantly, the divisions fit well geographically. Not that the area encompassed by the Big Ten is all that big, but it’s essentially divided up into the north (the “O” Division) and the south (the “X” Division).

Nebraska is really the only outlier in the west, similar to Penn State in the east, and with the protected crossover game, the two will alternate home and away trips each year.

So how does this affect Michigan?.

For starters, the schedule sets up perfectly for Michigan’s expected rise back to power in 2011. Michigan will get a break by seeing Penn State and Wisconsin drop off the schedule for the next two years and Purdue and Illinois added as the crossover games.

In addition, Michigan gets Nebraska and Ohio State at home, along with non-conference rival Notre Dame, setting up a dream home schedule for ticket-holders.

Trips to Michigan State and Iowa loom, but Iowa is a very senior-heavy team this season and will be breaking in a new quarterback in 2011 when Ricky Stanzi graduates.

Finishing out the season with Nebraska and Ohio State back-to-back is a tough way to close, but that’s exactly the way it should be. The teams should be playing at their best by the end of the season, so long as they stay healthy, so the final two weekends will virtually serve as play-in games for the Big Ten Championship. Ohio State hosts Penn State the week before traveling to Michigan as well.

All the talking heads saying Rich Rodriguez is on the hot seat this year should simmer down the burner because he’s not going anywhere.

With the combination of the 2011 schedule, 19 returning starters (counting senior cornerback Troy Wollfolk who is expected to redshirt for the 2010 season with an ankle injury), and third-year quarterbacks (Tate Forcier and Denard Robinson), the worst thing Michigan Athletic Director Dave Brandon could do is fire Rodriguez after this season.

For the Big Ten as a whole, today’s announcement should be seen very favorably. For Michigan fans, this announcement just gives us another reason to get excited for 2011. 

For now, though, there’s another season to play – the last of the old Big Ten.

As the 130th season of Michigan football comes to an end, it’s time to reflect on what we saw and look forward to next year and beyond.

2009 yielded some highlights and some lowlights, some controversy and some challenged loyalty. A legend was made and some buds blossomed. Records fell, both good and bad, and a system started to show some promise.

From this...

...to this

No one knew what to expect from this year’s version of Michigan football in Rich Rodriguez’s second year at the helm.

The overly optimistic among us predicted a breakout season of nine or ten wins.

Realistic optimists pointed to Rodriguez’s penchant for second-year turnarounds and predicted a record of 7-5 or maybe, if luck goes the way of the maize and blue, 8-4.

Realists pointed to the true freshmen quarterbacks and lack of overall talent on the squad and predicted a 5-7 or 6-6 finish.

As it turns out, the realists were right, but the realistic optimists weren’t too far off.

The fact of the matter is, Michigan fans were so shell-shocked from the worst record in 46 years in 2008 that we were looking anywhere we could for hope.

We ignored comments that Rodriguez made in the preseason such as, “There’s still going to be some transition. We’re going to play a lot more freshmen and redshirt freshmen than we would like to.”

We thought, sure there will be a lot of freshmen playing, but Tate Forcier and Denard Robinson are surely better options than Steven Threet and Nick Sheridan. Or, yeah, but it can’t get any worse than last season.

In this space, I offered some words of caution: “Coming off a season that resulted in the most losses in school history, and pinning all hopes on a true freshman quarterback, this seems to be the window of opportunity before Rodriguez’s system begins to take hold and terrorize the Big Ten.”

*Michigan fans show their support for Rich Rodriguez against Western Michigan, photo by John T. Greilick / The Detroit News

But then I followed it up with an overly ambitious response: “However, I think we’re going to see a very fast, well-conditioned and much-improved Michigan team playing with a chip on its shoulder to avoid being put to rest again.”

While that may have held true for a while, reality eventually sunk in that this team was indeed loaded with youth and razor-thin on the depth chart.

What began in August as optimism and eagerness to forget the epic disaster of 2008, quickly turned to scorn as the Detroit Free Press brought into question allegations of NCAA infractions on the part of Rodriguez and his coaching staff.

The opening game against Western Michigan couldn’t come soon enough. We cursed Michael Rosenberg and Mark Snyder for the timing of their article and the witch-hunt that ensued and we promised to get revenge on Justin Boren, who transferred to Ohio State, for his comments that seemed to be the centerpiece of that article.

And then the season began and practice time was forgotten and the story of Shoelace became one we would hear every game the entire season (as my wife would roll her eyes every time the announcers felt compelled to tell the story of why Denard Robinson doesn’t tie his shoes…every…single…game).

Robinson thrilled us with a 43-yard touchdown run, Tate Forcier showed promise in his first game by throwing for three touchdowns, Junior Hemingway caught nearly half his season total in receiving yards (103) and all of his touchdowns (two), and the defense shut down what many thought would be a high-powered offense.

We saw a show of solidarity for Rodriguez, Michigan won easily, and the season started off with a bang.

The came Notre Dame, fresh off of throttling Nevada, and riding preseason BCS bowl (or national championship game) predictions.

This will go down as the game that raised all of our expectations, mostly because no one knew at that time how mediocre Notre Dame really was.

It appeared to be Rodriguez’s signature win, as Michigan matched Notre Dame score-for-score and Forcier stunned the 18th-ranked Irish with 11 seconds left.

*Tate Forcier led Michigan to a win over Notre Dame, photo by Melanie Maxwell | AnnArbor.com

Forcier looked as veteran and composed as ND junior quarterback Jimmy Clausen, completing 23-of-33 for 240 yards and three touchdowns (one rushing). It’s hard to imagine that that would be the high point of his season, in just his second collegiate game.

Of course, there was the Armando Allen out-of-bounds play, which, despite the evidence , Notre Dame fans will carry to their graves in contempt.

The win over Notre Dame vaulted Michigan into the Top 25 heading into week three against Eastern Michigan. Former Michigan defensive coordinator Ron English brought his Eagles to Ann Arbor and didn’t provide much of a test.

Michigan showed off its running game this time, going for 380 yards on the ground, and getting 163 yards and two touchdowns on just eight carries from Carlos Brown in the first half alone.

Robinson scored two more touchdowns to enhance the unrealistic expectations for a guy that arrived on campus less than two months earlier.

Michigan then opened the Big Ten slate with Indiana in what would eventually be the battle for last place. At the time, though, Michigan was hoping to get to 4-0 heading into its intrastate rivalry battle in East Lansing.

This game provided our first glimpse of what the rest of the season would hold, as Michigan struggled to beat the Hoosiers, needing a 26-yard touchdown pass from Forcier to Martavious Odoms with 2:29 remaining to get the win.

The Indiana victory prompted me to draw a comparison to the New York Jets, who like Michigan, started off hot with a rookie quarterback: “Following Sunday’s Jets-Titans game, Vic Carucci of NFL.com asked Jets safety Kerry Rhodes if he thought the Jets’ style of play was sustainable. Rhodes replied that he thought it was because having such a good defense allows rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez to make some mistakes.

“Unfortunately, that won’t exactly translate to Michigan. While I think Michigan’s offense is further along in its development than Sanchez’s Jets offense, relatively speaking, Michigan hasn’t faced its toughest opponents yet.”

I provided the last part of that quote because I knew we were in for a tough go the rest of the season. I didn’t know, however, that that would be our last win over a FBS team all season. Ironically, Michigan’s fall has mirrored the Jets’ collapse.

At 4-0, a return to a bowl game looked assured, and Michigan entered “Little Brother” week seeking to avenge last season’s 35-21 loss to Michigan State.

It was the first road game of Forcier’s career and we saw the fist true test of the season, as the Michigan offense was shut down much of the game. But Forcier continued his early-season magic, leading a 14-point comeback to force overtime with a touchdown completion to Roy Roundtree with just two seconds left.

In overtime, Forcier was intercepted on a tipped pass that never should have been thrown, and Michigan dropped its second in a row to Michigan State for the first time since 1967.

This began a run of snapping streaks right and left.

With its first loss of the season under its belt, Michigan traveled to Iowa for a prime-time night game against the nation’s 12th-ranked Hawkeyes.

Brandon Minor had his breakout game of the season, scoring two touchdowns against a defense that hadn’t given up a rushing touchdown in 33 quarters.

The game started out as well as one could ask, as Donovan Warren picked off the first pass of the game and returned it for a touchdown.

Michigan hung around until a muffed punt (hello 2008!) gave Iowa the ball at the Michigan 16. Iowa punched it in and took a 30-21 lead.

Robinson led the offense down the field for a touchdown to narrow the gap, but on the next possession, threw an interception to end the game, beginning the Wolverine-faithful’s love-hate relationship with Denard.

Despite a second-straight loss, Michigan fans were encouraged that the team was able to hang with undefeated Iowa until the last minute of the game, and a return to the Big House to face an FCS school was just what Michigan needed to regroup.

Michigan was able to set numerous school records in the win over Delaware State that week and give many starters a week off.

Five Wolverines scored their first career touchdowns and Robinson was able to get a lot of work at quarterback.

Michigan fans even got the treat of seeing Nick Sheridan on the field without the game on the line.

Many fans didn’t like the idea of playing an FCS school, but following the game, I proclaimed, “I have no problem with Michigan playing Delaware State this year. With a roster comprised of mostly underclassmen, and a complete overhaul in progress, playing an FCS opponent was better than a bye week in my opinion.

“I would love to see Michigan start scheduling another tough out-of-conference game every year, but at this point in the development of Rich Rodriguez’s scheme, it’s not time for that just yet.

“Once the team grows up and the spread-n-shred is fully ingrained, I hope the schedule will be strengthened. But when you have Florida, arguably the nation’s top team and reigning national champion, playing Charleston Southern, Troy and Florida International, one must look that way first before pointing fingers at the baby Wolverines.”

I still believe it was okay to play Delaware State this season, but obviously with the way Michigan finished the season the benefits weren’t as great as I thought.

At 5-2, Michigan looked primed to make a bowl game, needing just one more win in its final five games.

Penn State came to town and dominated Michigan, racking up 396 yards of offense, and handing Michigan its first true beating of the season.

For really the first time all season, Forcier looked like a true freshman, completing just 13-of-30 passes for 140 yards. The offense couldn’t get anything going in the cold, rainy conditions.

Michigan wasn’t expected to win this one, and despite the 25-point whooping, I considered this result somewhat of a fluke and still didn’t believe the team was as bad as the final record would eventually indicate.

Following the Penn State game, doomsday headlines abounded, and I cautioned fans not to listen to them.

As it turns out, they were right.

Michigan traveled to Champaign, Ill. for a match-up with 1-6 Illinois, a game that looked like a sure-win.

This one will forever be remembered as the epic collapse, and probably the turning point of the whole season. I don’t think I’ve ever seen a bigger turnaround before.

Michigan was firmly in control with a 13-7 lead and first and goal at the Illinois one-yard line in the third quarter. After stuffing Michigan on four straight rushes, Illinois took possession and seized the game.

Six plays later, a 70-yard touchdown run put Illinois ahead 14-13 and Illinois never looked back, out-scoring Michigan 24-0 the rest of the way.

At this point in the season, confidence in a bowl game turned into hoping to squeeze out a win in one of the final three games. The best hope was the following week against Purdue.

Perhaps hope is the wrong word against Purdue, as Boilermaker head coach Danny Hope carried a grudge into the game, blaming Rodriguez for getting one of his players suspended for a game earlier in the season – nevermind that the player deserved to be suspended just as much as Michigan linebacker Jonas Mouton did the week before that.

*Turnovers doomed Michigan's chances against Ohio State, photo by The Detroit News / David Guralnick

This game was much like the Illinois game, where Michigan was in control and let it get away. Michigan led 24-10 at halftime and pushed it to 30-17 in the third, but a 91-yard touchdown drive, an on-side kick, and a 54-yard touchdown pass later, and Michigan found itself trailing 31-30.

Michigan missed a 43-yard field goal and failed to convert a two-point conversion attempt that would have tied the game, and Michigan fell by two.

Michigan traveled to Wisconsin for its final road game of the season, still needing a win to become bowl-eligible.

This game followed the mold of the past couple, as Michigan hung around through three quarters, but faded down the stretch.

Forcier bounced back from some poor outings to complete 20-of-26 passes for 188 yards and two touchdowns, but it was the defense that couldn’t hold up against a powerful Wisconsin running game.

Although Michigan knew Wisconsin was going to run it in the second half, it still couldn’t stop the Badgers.

The bowl hopes all came down to the final week of the season against Ohio State, as Michigan looked to end its five game losing streak to the Buckeyes.

Though many around the nation talked of the lack of luster in the rivalry, the game still had plenty of storylines with Michigan needing a win to make a bowl and avoid a second straight losing season, Ohio State needing a win to capture the Big Ten title outright, and Justin Boren playing against his former team in the Big House.

The Michigan defense played inspired and turned in its best performance of the season, holding the Ohio State offense to just 14 points.

However, it was the youth of Michigan’s offensive leader that doomed the Wolverines’ chances of playing through the holidays.

Forcier turned the ball over five times, including a fumble in the end zone on Michigan’s first possession, which Ohio State recovered for a touchdown.

Michigan moved the ball most of the day against an Ohio State defense that ranks as one of the best in the nation. But it was unable to capitalize on trips to the red zone, turning the ball over too many times.

So as Michigan’s season came to an abrupt end for the second year in a row, many want to know where do we go from here?

Indeed, there are many questions that need to be answered, but I’m in the minority who still believes the program is on the right track.

Stay tuned for part two where I will look at the future of the football program, both short-term and long-term, as well as the recruiting class Michigan has coming in and who is still out there that Rodriguez needs to land.