Final	1st	2nd	Total
#22 Michigan (16-5, 6-2)	30	36	66
Purdue (14-7, 4-4)	28	36	64

Michigan visited West Lafayette on Tuesday night looking for its first true road win of the season and first win in Mackey Arena since 2003. And win it did, reversing the score from Saturday’s loss to Arkansas, and beating the Boilermakers 66-64.

Michigan broke out to a 14-7 lead thanks to seven points from Stu Douglass. The lead then widened to 20-12 with eight minutes remaining in the first half. Purdue fought back, scoring the next seven points to pull within one, but Michigan answered with jumpers from Trey Burke and Tim Hardaway and a pair of free throws by Jordan Morgan. Purdue closed out the half on a 7-2 run to pull within two at 30-28.

The second half began much the same way as the first went: Michigan scoring a few baskets to pull ahead, but never enough to pull away. Each time it looked as if Michigan were poised to put the game away, Purdue would go on a run to get right back in the game.

In the first five minutes of the second half, Michigan built a 10-point lead at 41-31. However, Purdue went on a 20-6 run to grab its first lead since the beginning of the game. A Morgan layup and a Douglass three put Michigan back on top 52-51 with just under seven minutes to play. From there on, the teams battled neck-and-neck, neither leading by more than four points, and trading leads six times.

Trailing by one with a minute and a half left, Zack Novak found Morgan open under the basket and Morgan slammed it home to put Michigan ahead 65-64. Purdue was unable to score and Evan Smotrycz hit the front end of two free throws to give Michigan a two-point lead. A last-gasp attempt by Purdue’s Lewis Jackson missed and Michigan earned its first win at Purdue in its last seven trips. The defense held the Boilers without a field goal for the final 3:54.

Michigan was led by Hardaway’s 19-point effort on 8-of-15 shooting. Morgan and Douglass each added 12, while Smotrycz scored 10. Burke was held to six points, his third lowest output of the season, and lowest in Big Ten play. He shot just 3-of-10 from the field, but dished out six assists.

The Wolverines shot 54 percent from the field and hit 6-of-14 three-pointers while holding Purdue to 44.2 percent overall and 9-of-26 from downtown. Purdue’s stars, Robbie Hummel and Jackson got their points, 16 and 17 respectively, but no one else stepped up for the Boilers.

The win keeps Michigan atop the Big Ten standings and sets up an important road game at Ohio State on Sunday.

Final Game Stats
#	Name	FG-FGA	3FG-3FGA	FT-FTA	OR	DR	TOT	PF	TP	A	TO	BLK	S	MIN
52	Jordan Morgan*	5-7	0-0	2-2	3	4	7	3	12	2	3	0	0	29
00	Zack Novak*	2-4	1-1	0-0	0	8	8	1	5	3	0	0	0	36
01	Stu Douglass*	5-8	2-3	0-0	0	5	5	3	12	3	1	0	2	34
03	Trey Burke*	3-10	0-2	0-0	2	1	3	0	6	6	3	1	0	38
10	Tim Hardaway Jr*	8-15	2-6	1-3	1	3	4	2	19	1	4	0	0	40
02	Carlton Brundidge	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
05	Eso Akunne	0-2	0-2	0-0	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	2
13	Matt Vogrich	1-1	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	5
23	Evan Smotrycz	3-5	1-2	3-4	1	1	2	2	10	0	1	0	0	15
	Totals	27-50	6-14	6-9	7	23	30	13	66	15	12	1	2	200
	Purdue	23-52	9-26	9-12	7	16	23	14	64	16	9	5	6	200

After beating rival Michigan State for the third consecutive time last Tuesday, it traveled to Arkansas and laid an egg against a Razorback team that hadn’t beaten a quality opponent to that point. Michigan started slowly, allowing Arkansas to hit its first 11 shots, and dug itself a 20-point hole. While the Wolverines battled back valiantly, it wasn’t enough as Trey Burke’s attempted buzzer-beater rattled in and out.

#22 Michigan v. Purdue
	Tuesday, Jan. 24 7 p.m. ET ESPN W. Lafayette, Ind.
15-5 (5-2)	Record	14-6 (4-3)
Ferris State 59-33 Towson 64-47 W. Illinois 59-55 #8 Memphis 73-61 UCLA 79-63 Iowa State 79-66 Oakland 90-80 Ark. Pine-Bluff 63-50 Alabama A&M 87-57 Bradley 77-66 Penn State 71-53 Minnesota 61-56 #16 Wisconsin 59-41 Northwestern 66-64 OT #9 Michigan St. 60-59	Wins	N. Illinois 96-34 High Point 67-65 Iona 91-90 Temple 85-77 W. Michigan 80-37 Coppin State 78-57 Miami 76-65 W. Carolina 65-60 E. Michigan 61-36 IPFW 81-56 Iowa 79-76 Illinois 75-60 Minnesota 79-66 Iowa 75-68
#6 Duke 75-82 Virginia 58-70 #11 Indiana 71-73 Iowa 59-75 Arkansas 64-66	Losses	#15 Alabama 56-65 #11 Xavier 63-66 Butler 65-67 Penn State 45-65 Wisconsin 62-67 #9 Michigan St. 58-83
68.6	Points Per Game	71.8
60.8	Scoring Defense	60.3
497-for-1,080 (46.0%)	Field Goal %	507-for-1,162 (44.0%)
439-for-1,047 (41.9%)	Def. Field Goal %	438-for-1045 (41.9%)
164-for-480 (34.2%)	3-point %	154-for-434 (35.5%)
128-for-354 (36.2%)	Def. 3-point %	119-for-331 (36.0%)
213-for-301 (70.8%)	Free Throw %	269-for-428 (67.4%)
10.7	Free Throws Made/Game	13.5
33.1	Rebounds Per Game	34.8
31.1	Opp. Rebounds Per Game	34.2
13.3	Assists Per Game	13.5
11.3	Turnovers Per Game	9.7
5.0	Steals Per Game	7.5
2.5	Blocks Per Game	3.7
G – Tim Hardaway (15.1) G – Trey Burke (14.6)	Leading Scorer	F – Robbie Hummel (15.4) G – Lewis Jackson (10.0)
F – Evan Smotrycz (5.9) F – Jordan Morgan (5.6)	Leading Rebounder	F – Robbie Hummel (6.3) G – Kelsey Barlow (4.1)

Thankfully, Michigan doesn’t have to wait long to erase the bitter taste of defeat from its mouth as the Wolverines visit West Lafayette tonight to battle the Purdue Boilermakers.

Purdue enters at 14-6 overall and 4-3 in the Big Ten. The Boilers are yet to beat a ranked team but have lost to all three they have played, a nine point loss to Alabama, a three point loss at Xavier, and Saturday’s 25 point beatdown at the hands of Michigan State.

Purdue is led by forward Robbie Hummel, who surprisingly isn’t hurt this season. The senior who missed all of last season and part of the previous season with knee injuries, is having a stellar season so far. He’s averaging 15.4 points and 6.3 rebounds per game, having scored in double figures in all but two games. One of those was Saturday when he was held without a field goal on 0-for-11 shooting. His only two points came on free throws and he wasn’t in foul trouble. But every star has his off nights and for Hummel they’re few and far between. He scored 17 against both Alabama and Xavier and has a season high of 24 against Iona and Coppin State. Two years ago, he poured in 35 against Ohio State including eight three-pointers. At this point this season, he’s shooting 35.1 percent from three (39-for-111).

Second on the team is senior guard Lewis Jackson who averages 10 points and nearly four assists per contest. He scored 26 in a win over Temple but has been held to five points or fewer six times. He’s not much of a three-point shooter, averaging just over one attempt per game, but makes 47.1 percent of his shots.

Fellow senior guard Ryne Smith is the team’s sharp-shooter, averaging 43.4 percent from downtown (53-for-122. Against High Point early in the season, he hit 8-of-15 from three-point range and has hit at least three in nine of 20 games. Saturday’s loss to Michigan State was the first game all season that he was held without a three.

The Boilers are very guard-heavy but shoot worse than Michigan from the field (43.6 percent). Tonight’s matchup pits a pair of teams eager for a win following a disappointing loss, and Michigan looking for its first true road win of the season. It’s games like this that need to be stolen on the road in order to win the Big Ten. Look for John Beilein’s team to come out hungry and pick up a hard-fought victory before a brutal stretch at Ohio State, home against Indiana, and at Michigan State.

When Brady Hoke was named head coach in January, he immediately set the tone by referring to Ohio State as simply Ohio and made it very clear that beating Ohio was one of the supreme goals each season. And so we at Maize and Go Blue are taking it upon ourselves to dedicate a little time each week to our rival as well. In this weekly segment, we’ll give a brief recap of the previous week’s game and what it means for Michigan. For a full rundown of our rivals’ games, see Week 1, Week 2, Week 3, Week 4, Week 5, Week 6, Week 7, Week 8, and Week 9.

Now that Michigan has already played Notre Dame and Michigan State, we don’t care about those teams. The weekly Rival Rewind segment is going to transition into a sole focus on the lone rival remaining: Ohio State. It will provide a more in-depth look at each Ohio game and preview its upcoming game.

Previously on Rival Rewind, we saw Ohio State struggle for three-plus quarters against Big Ten bottom-feeder Indiana before ultimately winning. It looked as if everything was falling right into Ohio State’s lap in the Leaders Division, with Purdue on the slate next, Penn State at home, and then Michigan to end the season. So were the Bucks’ able to capitalize?

Ohio State: Lost to Purdue 23-26 in OT Record: 6-4 (3-3) With a perfect chance to grab control of the Big Ten Leaders Division due to Penn State’s loss to Nebraska, Ohio State squandered any chance of advancing to the first ever Big Ten Championship game by losing to Purdue last Saturday. Purdue has gotten trounced by Notre Dame, Michigan and Wisconsin this season, scoring 26 or more points just twice all season, against Middle Tennessee and FCS Southeast Missouri State – teams with a combined record of 5-14. But on Saturday, Purdue looked like the better team for 55 minutes against the once proud Buckeyes. Ohio State’s offense has become increasingly one-dimensional and Buckeye fans have been criticizing offensive coordinator Jim Bollman all season. The first quarter possessions went like this: First drive: Herron rush 2 yards, Herron rush 4 yards, Miller pass incomplete, punt Second drive: Herron loss 2 yards, Miller rush 1 yard, Miller rush no gain, punt Third drive: Herron rush 7 yards, Herron rush no gain, Miller sack, punt Through the first quarter, Ohio State ran 9 plays for 11 yards. During that time, Purdue capitalized with a 10-play, 57-yard field goal drive and a 11-play, 60-yard touchdown drive to take a 10-0 lead. Ohio State finally came to life in the second quarter with a touchdown drive of its own, capped off by a 38-yard pass from Miller to Jordan Hall on 3rd-and-10. After trading punts, Purdue struck again, this time going 88 yards on 13 plays to take a halftime lead of 17-7. In the second half, Ohio State forced a punt and drove 58 yards for another touchdown, this time a 6-yard Braxton Miller run. On the drive, the Buckeyes didn’t throw a single pass, running eight times. After a punt fest the rest of the third quarter, Purdue widened the lead to 20-14 with a 44-yard field goal just minutes into the fourth. With 6:15 to play, Ohio State began a drive from its own 34. Using a healthy dose of Herron and Hall, with a 12-yard pass sprinkled in, the Bucks drove down to the Purdue 13. Facing 4th-and-3, Miller scrambled around, escaping a sack and found a wide open Hall in the end zone. Ohio kicker Drew Basil missed a 33-yard field goal in overtime (photo by Joe Robbins, Getty Images) With just under a minute remaining, it seemed as if OSU was going to escape with another win in the final minutes. But Purdue blocked the extra point to keep the game knotted at 20 and send it to overtime. In the first stanza, Ohio State was held to a field goal attempt, which Drew Basil missed from 33 yards out. Purdue took over needing just a field goal, but converted a 3rd-and-4 and a 3rd-and-12 before quarterback Robert Marve carried it in from a yard out to give Purdue the upset. It was the second straight time Purdue upset the Buckeyes in West Lafayette and makes it nearly impossible for Ohio State to win the Leaders Division. To do so, they would have to beat Penn State and Michigan, Wisconsin would have to lose to Illinois, and Penn State would have to lose to Wisconsin. It’s not completely out of the question, but it’s very unlikely. Ohio State is such a strange team this year. At times (against Michigan State, Wisconsin, and Illinois), the defense looks as good as nearly any defense in the nation. At other times (against Toledo, Miami, Nebraska, Wisconsin, Indiana, and Purdue), it looks like an average Big Ten defense at best. The offense is essentially just a rushing offense, but it seems to work best when Miller scrambles around long enough for running backs or receivers to become open. That’s how nearly all of Miller’s completions happen. When he actually drops back to pass, there’s a good chance of something bad happening for the Buckeyes, which is why he virtually never does. Against Purdue, he threw 18 passes, but many of those were broken plays. The more the season goes on, the more I like Michigan’s defense to match up. With the emergence of Blake Countess, as well as J.T. Floyd stepping up and Troy Woolfolk’s move to safety, Michigan has the corners to match up with Ohio State’s receivers. That allows the rest of the defense to focus on stopping the run. Granted, Ohio State is supposed to get talented receiver DeVier Posey back next week, so it’s yet to be seen how that will change the complexion of the offense. This week, Ohio State hosts Penn State, which is coming off a heart-wrenching loss to Nebraska in the first game since the Jerry Sandusky scandal. If that was rough for the Nittany Lions, at least they had the comfort of the home crowd. This week will be their first road trip without Joe Paterno in 62 years, which will surely have an effect. I don’t see Penn State winning another game and Ohio State should cruise in this one. Next: Saturday v. #21 Penn State (8-2, 5-1) – 3:30pm on ESPN/ABC Prediction: Ohio 30 – Penn State 17 Anytime Purdue beats Ohio, the season is made (photo by Michael Conroy, AP)

We all know what happened in the second half of the season the past two years and it wasn’t pretty. Both times, it was Michigan State who gave Michigan its first loss that sent the Wolverines into a downward spiral.

#18 Michigan 36 – Purdue 14
	Final Stats
36	Final Score	14
7-1 (3-1)	Record	5-1 (2-0)
535	Total Yards	311
339	Net Rushing Yards	89
196	Net Passing Yards	222
25	First Downs	16
2	Turnovers	1
5-51	Penalties – Yards	8-86
2-81	Punts – Yards	6-232
36:25	Time of Possession	23:35
7-of-13	Third Down Conversions	3-of-13
1-for-2	Fourth Down Conversions	1-for-2
4-20	Sacks By – Yards	1-8
2-for-2	Field Goals	0-for-0
4-for-4	PATs	2-for-2
4-for-5	Red Zone Scores – Chances	1-for-3

I don’t know about you but I am sick and tired of everyone telling me it’s going to happen again (I live in Ohio, so all I get is “Michigan sucks” every day, all day). But, unfortunately for the Michigan haters out there, this is not the same team as the past two years, and Saturday they went out to prove it. And prove it they did – big time.

The defense stepped up and showed it’s for real, and so did running back Fitzgerald Toussaint, whose 170 yards and 2 touchdown performance should have him as the solid number one back for the rest of the year.

With Jordan Kovacs out with an injury, Michigan moved Troy Woolfolk to safety and gave true freshman Blake Countess his first career start at cornerback. Purdue took the opening drive of the game and marched down the field for seven. Unfortunately for the Boilermakers, they wouldn’t see the end zone again until the waning seconds of the fourth quarter, as Michigan rattled off 36 straight, including its first safety since 2003.

Purdue came out with Caleb Terbush at quarterback and ran an end around for about eight yards. A screen pass to O.J. Price a play later gained 12 and it began to look like the Boilermakers were for real. Mike Martin bull-rushed his man and stuffed Bolden on the next play, in what would be a familiar move all afternoon. A couple plays later Purdue found the end zone from 48 yards out on a jail break screen – a big play that looked to expose Michigan’s secondary. But, as I stated earlier, Purdue wouldn’t add any more points until the final seconds of the game. 7-0 Boilers.

Michigan’s first play was a 14-yard gain by Fitz Toussaint. After a 5-yard gain on a run, the “2″ formation came out with Denard in the slot. Gardner gave him the ball but he lost his footing. On 3rd-and-6, Denard threw a strike to Junior Hemingway for 10 yards and the first down and into Purdue territory. After a near interception the “2″ came out again. Gardner gave the ball to Denard and the defense flew to him, but he flipped it to Jeremy Gallon on the reverse for a first down run. However, a personal foul on Taylor Lewan moved the ball back 15 yards. A few plays later, Gallon took a screen pass to bring the ball down to the 11. Toussaint took a pitch and ran it to just shy of the goal line and Denard punched it in a few plays later to tie it up at seven.

Purdue couldn’t get anything going on its next drive, or any of them really, and Michigan was swarming to the ball very well. Jake Ryan made a stop on 3rd-and-5 to force the punt.

A trick play out of the “2″ formation threw Purdue off, but Vincent Smith failed to connect on his pass to Jeremy Gallon. On 3rd-and-8 Denard stood strong in the pocket and delivered another good pass, despite being tipped, to Roy Roundtree. On the next third down, Denard forced a throw to a well-covered Kevin Koger, but it was picked off by linebacker Joe Holland.

After a three-and-out by Purdue, Michigan took over at its own 20. A 2-yard loss by Toussaint and an 8-yard sack put Michigan in a 3rd-and-20 to start the second quarter. Denard rolled out to his left and threw a bomb to Roundtree, who had gotten behind the defense, for a 49-yard gain. Denard moved to the slot for the next play, and after a fake end-around, Gardner threw for the end zone, but it looked like there was a miscommunication and the pass was easily picked off.

Purdue took over on its own five and in one of the most beautiful and rare plays for a defense, Mike Martin bowled over his man and brought down Terbush for the safety. The replay showed he may have snagged a little facemask, but the official was right behind the play and didn’t call anything. Two points good guys to put Michigan ahead for good.

After a 15-yard penalty on Purdue, Michigan took over at the Purdue 45. Toussaint took the first play for 17 yards, but the Michigan offense fizzled and had to settle for a 37-yard field goal by Brendan Gibbons. 12-7 Michigan.

Purdue brought in Miami Hurricane transfer Robert Marve on its next drive and moved the ball down to the Michigan 16 in five plays, aided in part by a 15-yard penalty on Michigan and some nifty escapery by Marve. But back-to-back incompletions put them in 3rd-and-10. While being pressured by Jake Ryan, Marve tried to throw a strike to Justin Siller on a wide receiver screen, but the ball was bobbled and picked off by Courtney Avery.

Michigan took over, and after Toussaint took a couple of hand offs and ran for 16 yards on each one, Denard threw a beautiful pass to Jeremy Gallon that went for 42 yards down to the 2-yard line. Fitz punched it on the next play to put Michigan ahead 19-7.

Purdue was forced into another three-and-out as Marve was sacked by Martin on 3rd-and-long. Michigan marched down the field but failed to punch it in after five tries inside the four-yard line and settled for another field goal. Michigan took a 22-7 lead into the half.

On the first possession of the second half, Michigan nickeled and dimed Purdue down the field, along with a big 26-yarder by Vincent Smith, but failed to convert on a 4th-and-goal at the one-yard line and turned the ball over on downs.

Purdue once again couldn’t get anything going on its next drive, punting it away after doing nothing more than eating up a few minutes of clock.

On the fourth play of Michigan’s drive, Gardner faked a pitch to Denard and pitched it to Toussaint who cut back across the middle and outran everyone for 59 yards and another touchdown. 29-7 Michigan.

Another punt by Purdue put Michigan back inside its own 15. A couple of runs by Denard and Fitz put Michigan at the Purude 37, where Michael Shaw took a pitch to the right and went 37 yards to the house to conclude the scoring – well, at the least all the scoring that mattered in this game. 36-7 Michigan.

With the game in hand, Gardner came in to replace Denard for the remainder, but couldn’t put any more points on the board. Purdue did manage to add a 19-yard touchdown pass from Marve to Ross with 15 seconds left but the game. Regardless, Brady Hoke did not look pleased that his defense gave up the meaningless points.

Michigan put up a whopping 535 yards, 339 of them on the ground, and held the Purdue rushing attack to just 89 yards (the Boilers averaged 195 per game coming in). Michigan flat out dominated in every way, showing Michigan is for real and is not just Denard Robinson and some other guys. Fitz Toussaint was huge, rushing for 170 yards on 20 carries and 2 touchdowns. Michael Shaw added five carries for 56 yards and a touchdown as well.

Denard was less than spectacular on the ground, by his standards, with 15 carries for 63 yards and a touchdown, but he was superb in the passing game, going 9-for-14 for 170 yards. He did throw another pick, however.

The defense got great pressure all afternoon long and looked like a team possessed after getting outmuscled by State two weeks ago.Through eight games, Michigan’s defense has allowed a total of 117 points. Through the first eight games in each of the past three seasons, Michigan’s defense gave up 230 in 2008, 188 in 2009, and 240 in 2010. I think it’s safe to say the defense is back on track to playing Michigan defense. It’s not there yet, but it’s much more like a Michigan defense than we have seen the past three years.

The win, coupled with Michigan State’s 24-3 loss to Nebraska, puts Michigan firmly back in the hunt for the Big Ten Legends Division title. Michigan needs to win out and still needs MSU to lose another one, but it’s not completely out of the question.

Two weeks ago, we all picked Michigan to win and we were all wrong. We all picked Michigan to score at least 27 points and none were even close to the final score. Therefore, none of us deserve to get the win.

This week, we return rejuvenated and ready to see Michigan get back in the win column against the Purdue Boilermakers. We’ll be competing for a Drew Brees Mcfarlane figure and Kylie Minogue’s Locomotion record. That’s what’s played in Ross-Aide Stadium every time Purdue gets a first down, right?

The Picks:

Justin (1) - I’m not as confident about this one as I have been for most of Michigan’s games this season. If you watched Purdue at the beginning of the season, you would think this would be just another Michigan-Purdue blowout. But the Purdue team that began the season is not the same team that Michigan will face, hung with Penn State, and beat Illinois.

The offense is similar to the offense Michigan had trouble stopping in the first half against Northwestern. They spread you out, mix and match backs and receivers, run the zone read and wide receiver quick screens, and set the tempo with no-huddle. It’s not that Michigan can’t stop that kind of offense, but it runs the danger of falling behind quickly like Illinois did last week. And Purdue has a decent enough defense to make that troubling.

Offensively, look for Michigan to get back to running the football. Like most opposing teams, Purdue will try to force Denard Robinson to beat them with his arm. Don’t expect the type of gameplan that blew up in Borges’ face against Michigan State. Look for a short passing game and get the running backs involved in the run game to open up some downfield throws. Purdue has a very good defensive tackle in Kawaan Short as well as a pair of solid linebackers to help slow down Denard.

I don’t mean to sound alarming, but I think this game will be closer than Michigan fans would like. The weather forecast looks better than it did yesterday, so wind and rain shouldn’t be a factor. Michigan will win, but it won’t be as comfortable we would like.

Michigan 33 – Purdue 24

________________________________________________________________________________________

Josh (2) - Michigan is fresh off a bye week and looking to silence the critics who say that they are going to collapse in the second half like the past two seasons after suffering losses to Michigan State. I don’t know about you but I don’t see the same coaching staff on the sidelines this year and I don’t see this team giving up almost 30 points a game so far. Brady Hoke won’t let these kids get down on themselves and he won’t be blinded by his own hubris like some other coach might have been. Offensive coordinator Al Borges admitted that he didn’t call a good game against State, and he will be looking to right that mistake.

The defense shouldn’t have too much trouble with Caleb TerBush as Purdue does not have a high octane passing offense. The running game could be a different story though. With two capable backs, Purdue is averaging 195 yards a game rushing, three more than they are passing.

If Michigan is to win this game they absolutely need to be better up front, something that Hoke has said before and after all seven games this season. The front seven has shown improvement from game to game and State was a far superior team in the trenches based on size and strength (and a complete disregard for the rules of sportsmanship).

I don’t think Hoke is too worried that this team will throw in the towel. The seniors have a lot of pride and next to a win over Ohio, silencing the “second half collapse” critics is something I’m sure they want to do.

If Purdue is to win the game they need to contain Denard – shocker. They did it well last year in West Lafayette, holding him to 68 yards rushing, forcing two fumbles and picking him off twice. Denard may not have really improved in his passing game but he is still a threat to take it to the house every time the ball is in his hands, and Purdue knows that. If they can keep Denard in check and run the ball well, Purdue can most definitely win this game.

If Michigan is to win the game they need to get production from their running backs. There needs to be a threat from someone not named Denard if they want to take some of the pressure of their star QB. After last game, Borges should be looking to help get Denard back in a passing rhythm and exploit the areas of the field left open if the Boilermakers play a “contain Denard” style of defense.

On defense, Michigan needs to stop the run and be able to pressure TerBush, same thing every week. If they let backs Bolden and Shavers run wild this is going to be a long afternoon and an even longer week of Maize and Blue haters saying this team is just like the last two years. I don’t see that happening.

Purdue will play fairly well but in the end cannot do nearly enough to beat a hungry Wolverine team looking to make a statement and continue their climb back to the top of the B1G Ten.

Michigan 35 – Purdue 17

________________________________________________________________________________________

*Chris is on vacation out of the country this week and wasn’t able to get his pick in

It was only a week off, but it feels like forever since Michigan last played a game. The sting of defeat still looms on the mind, and if it does for me, I can assure you it’s magnified tenfold for the players and coaches. Fortunately, the bye week is over and Purdue comes to town for Michigan’s homecoming weekend.

#18 Michigan v. Purdue
	Saturday Oct. 29 12 p.m. ET ESPN2
6-1 (2-1)	Record	4-3 (2-1)
Western Michigan 34-10 Notre Dame 35-31 Eastern Michigan 31-3 San Diego State 28-7 Minnesota 58-0 Northwestern 42-24	Wins	Middle Tennessee 27-24 SE Missouri State 59-0 Minnesota 45-17 #23 Illinois 21-14
#23 Michigan State 14-28	Losses	Rice 22-24 Notre Dame 10-38 Penn State 18-23
34.6	Scoring Offense	28.9
232.0	Rushing YPG	195.0
195.9	Passing YPG	192.0
427.9	Total Offense	387.0
14.7	Scoring Defense	20.0
145.3	Rush Defense YPG	145.3
190.7	Pass Defense YPG	206.4
336.0	Total Defense YPG	351.7
19	Takeaways	8
12	Giveaways	8
11/9	Sacks By/Allowed	10/16
42-of-83 (51%)	Third-down Conv.	41-of-102 (40%)
4-for-6 (67.7%)	Field Goals	9-for-14 (64.3%)
33.1	Net Punt Avg.	41.7

Unfortunately, it’s not the Purdue we all expected. The Boilermakers began the season as the Purdue of old, barely surviving Middle Tennessee, losing to Rice, and getting throttled by Notre Dame, but since then has been playing better. Last week, the Boilers upset 23rd-ranked Illinois, and the week before that, went toe-to-toe with Penn State in Happy Valley.

Is Purdue really enough to give Michigan fits on Saturday, or will it be the same old Purdue that Michigan fans usually take for granted? Let’s break down the matchpus.

Quarterbacks:

Caleb TerBush has grabbed firm control of the quarterback position after not really even being a factor heading into the season. Last year’s starter Rob Henry tore his ACL in August and Robert Marve has played sparingly after recovering from his own torn ACL in 2010.

TerBush has completed 61.7 percent of his passes for 1,127 yards (161/game), eight touchdowns and four interceptions. He also averages about eight rushes per game, but just 2.4 yards per carry. He had perhaps his best performance of the season in last week’s win, throwing for 178 yards and a pair of touchdowns.

Denard Robinson struggled two weeks ago against Michigan State, completing just 9-of-24 passes and rushing for just 42 yards on 18 carries, but he’s still the most dangerous player on the field. As I profiled at the beginning of the week, he’s on pace to be one of the greatest quarterbacks in Michigan history and should be able to add to that total this week.

Edge: Michigan

Running Backs:

Ralph Bolden is Purdue’s go-to back with 398 yards on 4.9 yards per carry and three touchdowns. He’s had just one 100-yard rushing game, and ran well against Penn State two weeks ago, but gained just 28 yards on 12 carries last week and has three games with a less than three yards per carry average. Fellow junior Akeem Shavers hasn’t gotten as many carries but has scored five touchdowns.

Michigan’s running game has been uninspiring the past couple of weeks after showing signs of promise at the beginning of the season. Fitz Toussaint seemed to be becoming the every down back, but got just two carries for seven yards against Michigan State, while Vincent Smith got just eight for 37 yards.

It’s going to be interesting to see how Brady Hoke and offensive coordinator Al Borges handle the gameplan this week after abandoning the run game with the running backs against State. Purdue’s rush defense ranks 55th nationally, but shut down a pretty good Illinois rushing attack last week. Penn State, however, got 131 yards out of Silas Redd and Notre Dame got 191 from Cierre Wood and 94 from Jonas Gray.

Edge: Even

Receivers and Tight Ends:

Antavian Edison is the leading receiver for the Boilers, averaging 15.6 yards per catch and two touchdowns. He had a big game against Notre Dame, catching seven passes for 105 yards and a touchdown, but hasn’t done much outside of that.

The other go-to guy is Mr. Do-it-all Justin Siller. The former three-star quarterback moved to running back in 2008, was suspended for 2009, and returned as a wide receiver in 2010 before missing most of the season with an injury. He was actually Purdue’s starting quarterback in last year’s matchup with Michigan, but hurt his foot on the first play of the game. This season, he has 28 receptions for 284 yards and a touchdown.

For Michigan, receiver production can only go as far as Denard goes. Junior Hemingway is the obvious leader with 17 receptions for 397 yards and a touchdown. Though not a speedster, he’s a deep threat who has made his living on jump balls with big games against Notre Dame and Northwestern. Jeremy Gallon emerged as the second guy and leads the team in receptions with 18. Roy Roundtree and tight end Kevin Koger also have double-digit receptions and a pair of touchdowns each.

Michigan has the better stable of receivers, but how the offense is run will determine the kind of production they have.

Edge: Michigan

Offensive Line:

Purdue has allowed 16 sacks, which ranks 80th nationally, but the offensive line has seemingly fixed the problems it was having at the beginning of the season. Against Middle Tennessee and Rice to open the season, the Boilers allowed eight sacks. In the last five games, it has given up eight combined, including just one to Illinois’ very good pass rush last week.

In addition, the line has paved the way for the nation’s 26th-ranked rush offense. The Boilers have a good left tackle in Dennis Kelly and a solid and experienced guard in Peters Drey, an honorable mention All-Big Ten performer last season.

Michigan’s offensive line has struggled against more physical defensive lines the past few seasons and that was no different against Michigan State two weeks ago. After allowing just two sacks through the first six games, it allowed seven against the Spartans, and managed just 82 yards rushing.

Edge: Purdue

Defensive Line:

Purdue’s defensive line hasn’t been quite as good after losing First-Team All-American Ryan Kerrigan to the Washington Redskins, but it’s not a bad unit by any stretch. The Boilers have recorded 10 sacks, which ranks 93rd nationally, and allow 145 yards rushing per game, the same as Michigan allows. Tackle Kawann Short leads the team in sacks with 3.5 and tackles-for-loss with 9.5. He’s a guy who shifted to the end position against Penn State but is more of a run stopper than a pass rusher.

Michigan’s line has struggled to pressure the quarterback against good offensive lines, recording no sacks against Notre Dame and Michigan State. Bigger offensive lines tend to neutralize Mike Martin, Ryan Van Bergen, and Craig Roh simply because of a lack of size. Personnel wise, Michigan’s and Purdue’s lines are probably pretty even, but the Wolverines will have trouble getting to TerBush and getting much push against Purdue’s bigger offensive line.

Edge: Purdue

Linebackers:

Dwayne Beckford and Joe Holland are two fairly talented linebackers for the Boilers and are the team’s leading tacklers. The pair combined for 22 tackles against Illinois last week and helped keep Illini quarterback Nathan Scheelhaase in check.

Michigan’s linebackers haven’t progressed as much as expected throughout the season. Kenny Demens and Brandin Hawthorne have been slow to react and freshman Jake Ryan continues to struggle containing the edge.

Edge: Purdue

Defensive Backs:

Corner Ricardo Allen is just a sophomore but he already has six career interceptions for the Boilers, including one last week. The other, Josh Johnson is bigger and more physical, but neither was able to stop Notre Dame’s Michael Floyd in Week 4. But then again, who can? Purdue is allowing 206 passing yards per game, which is a respectable 36th nationally.

Michigan’s secondary has been much better than the past couple of seasons. Freshman Blake Countess has basically taken Troy Woolfolk’s spot due to nagging injuries and has fared well. Safety Jordan Kovacs is the leader while fellow safety Thomas Gordon has a knack for making big plays. Michigan gives up just 192 yards through the air.

Edge: Push

Special Teams:

Purdue has the nation’s fourth-best net punt average. Sophomore punter Cody Webster averages 46.6 yards per punt. Kicker Carson Wiggs has hit 9-of-14 field goals with a long of 53. The Boilers also have the nation’s 15th-best kick return game, giving the offense good starting field position.

Michigan’s punting has been pretty poor, with a net average of 33.1, which is near the bottom nationally. Some of that is attributed to a series of field position punts in the Michigan State game. Kicker Brendon Gibbons has hit 4-of-6 field goals with a long of just 38.

Edge: Purdue

Coaching:

Purdue Head Coach Danny Hope is 1-1 against Michigan since taking over for Joe Tiller. In 2009, he took advantage of Michigan’s decline and captured Purdue’s first win in Ann Arbor in 43 years. Last year, Purdue kept it close in an ugly game. He seems to be a good fit at a school like Purdue where he’s going to get the most out of the talent he has and keep them playing hard.

Brady Hoke suffered his first loss at Michigan two weeks ago, effectively ending his honeymoon. Now he can get down to coaching and staying out of the spotlight. For all the praise we gave Al Borges through the first six games, his gameplan was subpar at best against MSU. I’m wiling to bet he gets back to running the football against Purdue. Greg Mattison has Michigan’s defense ranked eighth nationally in points allowed and 36th in total defense. Those are dramatic improvements from the past few years.

Edge: Michigan

Intangibles:

Saturday will be homecoming in Ann Arbor but unfortunately Mother Nature thinks she went to Michigan. The current forecast calls for temperatures in the mid-40s with a rain or snow shower, meaning the game could come down to which team can run the ball the best.

Michigan lost to Purdue last time the Boilers visited Ann Arbor and you can be sure that Hoke has declared that unacceptable. It’s a must-win for Michigan if it wants any shot of climbing back into the Big Ten race. A home game in poor weather conditions should favor Michigan.

Edge: Michigan

This game does scare me a little bit. Purdue is playing well and looked good against Illinois last week. The Boilers run an offense somewhat similar to Northwestern and try to control the tempo early with some no-huddle. That worked for Northwestern in the first half against Michigan. It’s a shotgun spread offense with lots of zone read and receiver screens that could keep Michigan’s defense on its heels for the first half or so. Hope likes to mix around running backs and receivers and use Justin Siller in the Wildcat every now and then.

However, depending on what the weather brings, that could be neutralized a bit, either forcing Purdue into a more conservative rushing attack or causing turnovers.

The Purdue defense did a great job of stopping Illinois’ powerful offense last week. The Illini are about as similar to Michigan as any team in the Big Ten, so that doesn’t bode well. But Denard Robinson is better than Scheelhaase and Michigan will look to establish a rushing game early.

I look for Purdue to hang around for a half and into the third quarter before Mattison adjusts to stop the Boiler offense and Michigan wins a closer than wanted game.

Prediction: Michigan 33 – Purdue 24

Good to Know:

Michigan leads the all-time series 42-14, including 20-5 in the last 25 meetings. However, Purdue has won two of the last three

Michigan is 83-27 all-time in homecoming games

Michigan has forced as many turnovers (19) in the first seven games as it did all season in 2010. The Wolverines rank first in the Big Ten and eighth nationally in turnovers forced

Michigan has outscored opponents 121-42 in the second half this season and 200-61 from the second quarter on

Record Watch:

With one passing touchdown, Denard Robinson will pass Jim Harbaugh (1983-86) for sole possession of 9th on Michigan’s career list. With two, he will tie Brian Griese (1994-97) for 8th With 274 passing yards, Denard will pass Rick Leach (1975-78) for 9th in career passing yards. With 373, he can pass Brian Griese (1994-97) for 8th With 86 rushing yards, Denard will pass Gordon Bell (1973-75) for 9th on Michigan’s career rushing list With one rushing touchdown, Denard will move into a tie with Butch Woolfolk (1978-81) for 9th in career rushing touchdowns. With two, he will reach Tom Harmon (1938-40) and Billy Taylor (1969-71) for 7th With 66 receiving yards, Junior Hemingway could move into the top 20 in career receiving yards, passing Ralph Clayton (1976-79), John Kolesar (1985-88), and Adrian Arrington (2004-07)

Football is a religion and Saturday is the holy day of obligation. Legendary Michigan football broadcaster Bob Ufer uttered those words many years ago and they still ring true today. Each year, as summer draws to a close and hurricane season gears up, we can hardly hold back our anticipation of Saturdays spent in front of the TV, stuffing our mouths with burgers and beer, and watching the Maize and Blue take the field to The Victors.

This season, we begin anew with “Michigan Man” Brady Hoke at the helm looking to return Michigan football back to what Bo Schembechler established 42 years ago and Moeller and Lloyd carried on before Rich Rodriguez was brought in to transform the program into an SEC team.

If you’ve read this blog for the past couple of seasons, it’s no secret that I supported Rodriguez and truly believed it could have eventually worked out. But I’m not going to dwell on that any longer, since that era is over and each thing Hoke has done since taking over has effectively brought Michigan a few giant steps in the right direction.

So as we begin the 132nd season of Michigan football this Saturday, let’s take a look at what we can expect from our beloved Wolverines.

September 3 – Western Michigan

Junior quarterback Alex Carder brings a talented passing attack into Ann Arbor to challenge Michigan’s rehabbed secondary. Carder threw for 3,334 yards, 30 touchdowns and just 12 interceptions a year ago. Can Troy Woolfolk and J.T. Floyd, both of whom return from injuries, hold Bronco receiver Jordan White in check?

Defensively, WMU is inexperienced in the secondary, but has a solid line that will have to control Denard Robinson. Nobody really knows what to expect from Michigan’s offense in its first year under Al Borges, but look for a somewhat vanilla playbook so as not to show too much for Notre Dame a week later.

Michigan 31 – Western Michigan 17

September 10 – Notre Dame

A lot of people are high on the Irish this season with 17 returning starters including linebacker Manti Te’o and receiver Michael Floyd. Both are impact players on their respective side of the ball. Michigan held on to beat ND in South Bend last season, but did so by knocking quarterback Dayne Crist out of the game. Crist is back this season and the Irish finished last season strong, winning four straight including at USC and a 33-17 Sun Bowl victory over Miami.

This year’s matchup has ESPN Game Day in attendance for the first ever night game in Michigan Stadium history and Michigan will be looking to win for the fifth time in six years. Expect a high-scoring shootout in this one, going right down to the wire.

Michigan 34 – Notre Dame 31

September 17 – Eastern Michigan

Former Michigan defensive coordinator Ron English is trying to build the Eagles into Mid-American Conference contenders, but it’s been slow going thus far. After a winless season two years ago, EMU won two games last season and only returns 12 starters. Quarterback Alex Gillett is more of a runner than a true passer, having ran for 766 yards last season and thrown for just 1,633 yards, 13 touchdowns and 13 interceptions.

Defensively, the Eagles return three starters on the line and two in the secondary, but ranked at the bottom nationally in scoring, rushing, and total defense a year ago.

Even with Mike Hart on the sidelines coaching EMU’s running backs, don’t expect this one to be a contest.

Michigan 52 – Eastern Michigan 21

September 24 – San Diego State

Brady Hoke’s old team will be coming to Ann Arbor hoping to throw a wrench into the coach’s plans to turn Michigan around. Unfortunately for Michigan, Hoke left the Aztecs in great condition, fresh off a 9-4 record and a 35-14 Poinsettia Bowl victory over Navy.

Fourteen starters return including quarterback Ryan Lindley, who enters as a fourth-year starter, having thrown for 9,537 yards and 67 touchdowns in his career against just 39 interceptions. If Michigan doesn’t have its secondary shored up by Week 4, Lindley has the talent to pick it apart, although last season’s top two receivers are gone.

Sophomore running back Ronnie Hillman, last year’s Mountain West Conference Freshman of the Year, returns as a pass catching threat out of the backfield. He ran for 1,304 yards and 14 touchdowns in his first season with the Aztecs.

On the defensive side, only five starters return, but it was a group that ranked in the top third in college football a year ago. New head coach Rocky Long, despite being a quarterback in his playing days, has been a defensive coordinator most of his coaching career and guided New Mexico to one of the nation’s top defenses throughout the 2000s.

Many will circle this game on the schedule as a toss-up, but expect Hoke to have the Maize and Blue playing with renewed vigor and toughness and pull out a close defensive battle.

Michigan 24 – San Diego State 20

October 1 – Minnesota

Another school with a new head coach, Minnesota returns 15 starters from a squad that went 3-9 a year ago. Jerry Kill succeeded at Southern Illinois and Northern Illinois, but it will take a lot more to turn Minnesota into a Big Ten contender.

The first thing Kill did was move the Gophers’ second-leading receiver, Marqueis Gray, to quarterback, the position he played at Ben Davis High School in Indiana as the nations third-ranked dual-thread quarterback. Despite losing Gray at the receiver position, the Gophers still have a threat in Da’jon McKnight, a 6’3″ wideout who caught 10 touchdown passes last season.

On defense, Minnesota ranked last in the Big Ten in rush defense last season and recorded a nation-low nine sacks. Expect Michigan to pound the ball on the ground early and often with a few long pass plays here and there when the defense keys on the run.

Michigan 41 – Minnesota 17

October 8 – Northwestern

Michigan’s first road trip of the season is across Lake Michigan to take on a dangerous Northwestern team that returns 17 starters including quarterback Dan Persa, who set the Big Ten record for completion percentage (73.5). What remains to be seen is whether he can fully recover from a ruptured Achilles’ tendon at the end of last season. Receivers Jeremy Ebert and Drake Dunsmore also return to give Persa some weapons. The main question is who will step up in the backfield.

Defensively, seven starters return, including three-fourths of the secondary, but must fill some holes in the middle. The Wildcats gave up 29 points per game last season and finished with the 97th-ranked total defense. Those numbers are a bit skewed, considering the entire team fell apart when Persa went down.

A night game on the road could give Michigan fits and this is definitely a trap game before the battle with Michigan State. But Hoke won’t let the veteran group get ahead of itself and Michigan will pull away late in the game in front of a pro-Michigan crowd.

Michigan 32 – Northwestern 24

October 15 – Michigan State

When Hoke took over, he immediately put an emphasis on Michigan’s rivalry games. This is one that he has been looking forward to as Michigan gets a chance to retake the upperhand in the sibling battle for the state of Michigan.

The Spartans are one of the front-runners to win the Big Ten, fresh off an 11-win season and a share of the Big Ten crown. They have all the makings of a BCS caliber team with a returning senior quarterback in Kirk Cousins, three talented backs in Edwin Baker (the Big Ten’s leading returning rusher), Le’Veon Bell, and Larry Caper, and two experienced receivers in B.J. Cunningham and Keshawn Martin. The line is the only question mark on the offensive side, having to replace three starters.

Defensively, six starters return, led by tackle Jerel Worthy and head coach Mark Dantonio expects big things from end William Gholston. The secondary will need to find a couple to step up from last season’s 60th-ranked pass defense.

Coming off a few close games, Michigan will have a hard time beating the Spartans in East Lansing. However, MSU will be coming off a road matchup with Ohio State. Still, I think Michigan is a year away from beating Dantonio’s crew and we’ll have to suffer through another year without state bragging rights.

Michigan State 33 – Michigan 27

October 29 – Purdue

Purdue suffered a huge loss when quarterback Rob Henry tore his ACL last week, but will need former Miami transfer Robert Marve to step up. Marve, ironically, tore his ACL last season, opening the door for Henry to take over. Marve is more of a pocket passer suited for a Purdue offense, but he will need the line to protect him better than last season.

On the defensive side of the ball, the Boilers have to replace All-American end Ryan Kerrigan, but there are some talented players remaining. Tackle Kawann Short and corner Ricardo Allen will need to step up.

Michigan may be coming off a loss to rival Michigan State and will be hungry for a win, so look for the Wolverines to bounce back with a solid effort before heading into the tough stretch of the schedule.

Michigan 35 – Purdue 17

November 5 – Iowa

Iowa could be a dark horse contender for the Big Ten title, although it probably isn’t likely since the Hawkeyes return just 11 starters. At quarterback, replacing Ricky Stanzi should be fairly smooth with junior James Vandenberg having gained some experience a couple of seasons ago when Stanzi went down with an injury. He’ll have a great line to stand behind and a big, talented receiver in Marvin McNutt to throw to, as well as an emerging star running back in Marcus Coker.

Defensively, Iowa is always stout, but lost three key starters in Adrian Clayborn, Christian Ballard, and Karl Klug. Defensive end Broderick Binns recorded 9.5 tackles for loss and 5.5 sacks in 2009 and will be one to watch this season. Linebacker James Morris was a Freshman All-American last season and cornerback Shaun Prater was All-Big Ten.

In Iowa City, Michigan will have a hard time getting the win. This may be the first time we get to see how Hoke’s pro-style offense fares against the a true Big Ten defense. We all know how Rich Rodriguez’s vaunted offenses struggled in late Big Ten play, but Hoke is bringing the toughness back to Ann Arbor. Still, Michigan will probably see a drop-off offensively in this one.

Iowa 24 – Michigan 20

November 12 – Illinois

Every season, Ron Zook seems to be on the hot seat. Known as a great recruiter but mediocre coach, Zook brought in two new coordinators last season and finished with a 7-6 record and a dominating 38-14 bowl win over Baylor. He’ll have a hard time improving on that this season after losing his top three players, running back Mikel Leshoure, defensive tackle Corey Liuget, and linebacker Martez Wilson.

Quarterback Nathan Scheelhaase leads the Illini after earning Freshman All-America honors a year ago. If not for Denard Robinson, Scheelhaase may have been the talk of the Big Ten at the quarterback position, having thrown for 1,825 yards, 17 touchdowns and just eight interceptions, and run for 868 yards and five touchdowns.

On defense, only four starters return. The ability to replace Liuget and Wilson will determine whether the Illini can reach a second-straight bowl game or not.

Michigan will need to win this one with Nebraska and Ohio State remaining. Don’t expect another record-setting offensive day for both teams, but Michigan should be able to put up plenty of points once again.

Michigan 41 – Illinois 27

November 19 – Nebraska

The last time Michigan and Nebraska played, in the 2005 Alamo Bowl, it was a disappointing end to a disappointing season for the Maize and Blue. Michigan lost 32-28. In 1997, Nebraska stole some of Michigan’s thunder when it claimed the national title in the Coaches Poll. Needless to say, Michigan is due.

Unfortunately, Nebraska is probably the favorite to win the Big Ten in its first season in the conference. Led by quarterback Taylor Martinez and defensive tackle Jared Crick, Nebraska will be a force this season. The nation’s ninth-best scoring defense and 11th-best total defense last season, the Huskers will give Michigan fits .

Nebraska 27 – Michigan 20

November 26 – Ohio State

The single-most important game on the schedule got a lot more interesting over the offseason when Jim Tressel was forced to resign, Terrelle Pryor bolted for the NFL, and five other players were suspended for the first five games due to an improper benefits scandal in Columbus. Defensive coordinator Luke Fickell takes over a still-loaded team and will have to find a way to make it through the first five games unscathed, but by the time the Buckeyes travel to Ann Arbor, all should be fixed.

Senior Joe Bauserman and freshman Braxton Miller are battling it out for the starting spot, all the while trying to do so with unproven youngsters at running back, receiver, and offensive line for the first five games.

Defensively, the Bucks are always strong and weren’t hit as hard with suspensions. However, only four starters return. Two new corners will need to step up, but Ohio State always has athletic, talented players to retool that position.

The first few weeks will be interesting, and may keep Ohio State from winning the Big Ten, but they’ll be ready for Michigan come November. I just think the combination of Hoke’s emphasis on beating Ohio, and Fickell’s first season at the helm with a new quarterback will lead to Michigan breaking the decade-long spell that Tressel had on the Wolverines.

Michigan 31 – Ohio State 21

The forecast: 9-3

The so-called “experts” aren’t as high on Michigan, but the Wolverines have enough talent and experience on offense to continue to put up points like they did last season. The difference will be the mentality that Hoke has instilled to keep the offense going late in the season. Defensively, there are still holes and question marks, but a stout line and a rebuilt secondary is bound to improve under the guidance of new defensive coordinator Greg Mattison. Notre Dame and Ohio State are coin flip games that could be the difference between 9-3 and 7-5.

You know it was an odd game when my 84-year old grandma sends me an email after the game last Saturday that said, “That Michigan game was weird.” She’s the widow of a 1951 Michigan grad and has been watching Michigan football games for nearly 60 years with no real understanding of the game of football. Yet, in the aftermath of Michigan’s 67-65 triple-overtime win over Illinois on Saturday, she knew enough to pronounce it “weird.”

Michigan vs. Purdue
	Sat. Nov. 13 12 p.m. ET Big Ten Network
6-3	Record	4-5
UConn 30-10 Notre Dame 28-24 UMass 42-37 Bowling Green 65-21 Indiana 42-35 Illinois 67-65 (3OT)	Wins	W. Illinois 31-21 Ball State 24-13 Northwestern 20-17 Minnesota 28-17
#17 Mich. State 17-34 #15 Iowa 28-38 Penn State 31-41	Losses	Notre Dame 12-23 Toledo 20-31 #10 Ohio State 0-49 Illinois 44-10 #9 Wisconsin 13-34
38.9	Scoring Offense	17.6
273.4	Rushing YPG	173.2
262.4	Passing YPG	137.3
535.9	Total Offense	310.6
33.9	Scoring Defense	27.7
168.1	Rush Defense YPG	142.8
285.6	Pass Defense YPG	218.2
453.7	Total Defense YPG	361.0
10	Takeaways	13
17	Giveaways	19
12/4	Sacks By/Allowed	27/15
57/118 (48%)	Third-down Conv.	49/137 (36%)
4/11	Field Goals	10/14
36.4	Net Punt Avg.	35.8

The more I thought about it, the more I realized how that’s the perfect word to sum up this season.

We knew the offense was going to be good and the defense was going to struggle, but we didn’t think the offense would be this good and the defense would struggle this much. No one anticipated that we would have a Heisman contender at quarterback setting all kinds of records and no one foresaw our top cornerback suffering a season-ending ankle injury just days before the first game.

And here we are, a win over Purdue away from achieving the mark most of us predicted before the season started, with a chance (albeit an unlikely one) to upset Wisconsin or Ohio State in the final two weeks.

The offense hasn’t truly been stopped all season. It has sputtered at times and has committed its share of mistakes, but there hasn’t been a game yet where the opposing defense flat-out shut it down. Michigan State and Iowa were better all-around teams and I still haven’t figured out what happened at Penn State two weeks ago, but last week was a glimpse of what we have to look forward to in the next few years.

Sixty-seven points (45 in regulation) and one of the most productive games in Michigan football history against the 12th-best defense in the nation prior to last Saturday. This all coming from what is essentially a sophomore offense.

Tomorrow it gets a chance to meet everyone’s preseason expectation, seven wins, and while it’s on the road, it’s against perhaps the perfect opponent – Purdue.

The Boilermakers are struggling in all phases of the game right now. After starting the season 4-2, Purdue has lost its last three games by a combined score of 127-23. It ranks nearly last in scoring offense, with 17.6 points per game, and has a very average defense, giving up 27.7 points per game.

The Boilers will likely be starting true freshman Sean Robinson at quarterback, though Justin Siller, who tore Michigan up two years ago, could return from a sprained foot that he suffered a few weeks ago.

Robinson was expected to redshirt this season, but was forced into action and has completed 32-of-68 passes for 223 yards, two touchdowns, and four interceptions. He quarterbacks what is the worst passing offense in the Big Ten, and one of the worst in the nation, averaging just 137.3 yards per game through the air.

Michigan’s defense, however, tends to make every quarterback look like an All-American this season, so those in West Lafayette are pretty confident that Purdue has a shot.

The team’s strength is its running game, lead by fullback Dan Dierking who has rushed for 458 yards on 5.5 yards per carry and three touchdowns. He had two 100-yard games, against Western Illinois and Minnesota.

Defensively, Purdue is a little below average. Its rush defense ranks 49th in the nation (142.78 ypg), while its pass defense ranks 64th (218.22 ypg) and its scoring defense ranks 74th. The lone bright spot is defensive end Ryan Kerrigan, one of the top defensive linemen in the Big Ten, who has helped Purdue lead the conference in sacks. Fortunately for Michigan, sacks are an afterthought. Michigan leads the Big Ten in fewest sacks allowed with just four.

It’s hard to see how Purdue can win this game. It has scored more than 20 points just five times all season (and no more than 31) and has given up 127 points in the last three games. This should be Michigan’s biggest win of the season.

Denard Robinson needs just 145 yards rushing to set the FBS record for rushing yards by a quarterback. Purdue has given up 100-yard rushing games each of the past two weeks, including 118 yards by Illinois quarterback Nate Scheelhaase.

Denard could also become the first quarterback in FBS history to record 1,500 yards rushing and 2,000 yards passing in a season. To do so, he would need 151 rushing yards and 186 passing yards. Both records are certainly within reach on Saturday as Michigan’s offense should cruise to another win.

Michigan 48 – Purdue 30

The Big Ten announced the layout of its two divisions beginning in 2011 and Big Ten fans across the country should be happy. While there was much speculation in recent days that Michigan and Ohio State being put in separate divisions would equal doom, since it could mean moving the historic game between the two rivals to mid-season, it didn’t happen. 

New Big Ten Divisions
“X” Division	“O” Division
Ohio State	Michigan
Penn State	Nebraska
Wisconsin	Iowa
Purdue	Michigan State
Illinois	Northwestern
Indiana	Minnesota

Big Ten Commissioner Jim Delany came through with a layout that I believe is as good as it can get with two yet-to-be-named divisions, though I would still prefer one big conference with 12 teams where each team plays all the others. However, current NCAA rules require multiple divisions in order to hold a championship game, so if this is how it’s going to be, this announcement should please the masses.

First of all, the parity is perfect. Since Penn State joined the Big Ten in 1993, the six schools in the “O” Division have an overall record of 724-517-3 (58.3 percent), while the six schools in the “X” Division have an overall record of 708-517-9 (57.8 percent).

Narrowing down the sample size to the past decade doesn’t change the parity either, as the “O” Division had an overall record of 428-317 (57.4 percent) and the “X” Division had an overall record of 416-322 (56.4 percent).

It would appear that the “X” Division is a little bit more top-heavy with Ohio State (54-10), Penn State (51-13), and Wisconsin (48-17) ranking as the top three in the Big Ten in wins during the past five years. However, much of that disparity is a result of the past two seasons in which Michigan has gone just 8-16. In other words, when Michigan returns to form, the “X” Division won’t seem quite as top-heavy compared to the “O” Division.

The “O” Division seems to be more well-rounded from top to bottom, with only Minnesota (27-36) compiling a losing record during the last five years, while in the “X” Division, Purdue (30-32), Indiana (23-37), and Illinois (21-39) all featured losing records during that time period.

Protected Crossover Games
“X” Division		“O” Division
Ohio State	vs.	Michigan
Penn State	vs.	Nebraska
Wisconsin	vs.	Minnesota
Purdue	vs.	Iowa
Illinois	vs.	Northwestern
Indiana	vs.	Michigan State

Secondly, the existing rivalries will remain intact, most importantly Michigan-Ohio State. The announcement that The Game will remain at the end of the season will satisfy the vast majority of the Ohio State and Michigan fan bases whose outcry was mentioned by both Michigan Athletic Director Dave Brandon and Ohio State Athletic Director Gene Smith on the Big Ten Network’s announcement special. Even Nebraska Athletic Director Tom Osborne confessed to receiving phone calls and emails from angry Michigan and Ohio State  fans about moving The Game, some blaming him for causing the move.

Since the two teams are in separate divisions, the door is open for the possibility of playing twice in the same season, but realistically, that should rarely happen.

Keeping The Game as the last game of the conference schedule makes it essentially a do-or-die game, preserving the core of the rivalry – the chance to either make it to the next level or salvage your season by keeping the other from advancing. And that’s the way it should be. In 14 of the past 15 seasons, The Game has had implications on the Big Ten title.

Michigan will also be able to keep its rivalries alive with Michigan State and Minnesota (for the Little Brown Jug) in the “O” Division, while also forming a divisional rivalry with Nebraska, which claims a share of the 1997 National Championship with Michigan.

Other rivalries like Ohio State-Penn State and Purdue-Indiana will be played every season as well since they fall in the same division. The conference will also preserve other rivalries, such as Minnesota-Wisconsin, as protected crossover games.

Thirdly, and perhaps least importantly, the divisions fit well geographically. Not that the area encompassed by the Big Ten is all that big, but it’s essentially divided up into the north (the “O” Division) and the south (the “X” Division).

Nebraska is really the only outlier in the west, similar to Penn State in the east, and with the protected crossover game, the two will alternate home and away trips each year.

So how does this affect Michigan?.

Upcoming Michigan Big Ten Schedules
2011		2012
Oct. 1	Minnesota	Sept. 29	Bye
Oct. 8	Northwestern	Oct. 6	Purdue
Oct. 15	Michigan State	Oct. 13	Illinois
Oct. 22	Bye	Oct. 20	Michigan State
Oct. 29	Purdue	Oct. 27	Nebraska
Nov. 5	Iowa	Nov. 3	Minnesota
Nov. 12	Illinois	Nov. 10	Northwestern
Nov. 19	Nebraska	Nov. 17	Iowa
Nov. 26	Ohio State	Nov. 24	Ohio State
*Home Games in Bold
*2011 Big Ten Championship in Indianapolis

For starters, the schedule sets up perfectly for Michigan’s expected rise back to power in 2011. Michigan will get a break by seeing Penn State and Wisconsin drop off the schedule for the next two years and Purdue and Illinois added as the crossover games.

In addition, Michigan gets Nebraska and Ohio State at home, along with non-conference rival Notre Dame, setting up a dream home schedule for ticket-holders.

Trips to Michigan State and Iowa loom, but Iowa is a very senior-heavy team this season and will be breaking in a new quarterback in 2011 when Ricky Stanzi graduates.

Finishing out the season with Nebraska and Ohio State back-to-back is a tough way to close, but that’s exactly the way it should be. The teams should be playing at their best by the end of the season, so long as they stay healthy, so the final two weekends will virtually serve as play-in games for the Big Ten Championship. Ohio State hosts Penn State the week before traveling to Michigan as well.

All the talking heads saying Rich Rodriguez is on the hot seat this year should simmer down the burner because he’s not going anywhere.

With the combination of the 2011 schedule, 19 returning starters (counting senior cornerback Troy Wollfolk who is expected to redshirt for the 2010 season with an ankle injury), and third-year quarterbacks (Tate Forcier and Denard Robinson), the worst thing Michigan Athletic Director Dave Brandon could do is fire Rodriguez after this season.

For the Big Ten as a whole, today’s announcement should be seen very favorably. For Michigan fans, this announcement just gives us another reason to get excited for 2011. 

For now, though, there’s another season to play – the last of the old Big Ten.

Following last week’s Halloween horror in Illinois, Michigan returns home with its best remaining chance to become bowl eligible.

Any other season, that wouldn’t be a big deal, but after missing a bowl for the first time in 34 years last season, Michigan needs to get back to post-season play. It’s important, not only for the prestige of playing in a bowl, which isn’t what it was the last time Michigan missed a bowl, but also for the extra few weeks of practice.

The extra practice time will give the team more room to grow and prepare for the bowl game and beyond.

But the only way to be assured of that extra practice time is to beat Purdue on Saturday.

Purdue is an interesting team – one that beat Ohio State and came within two of Oregon and three of Notre Dame, but one that also lost to Northern Illinois, Northwestern, and got throttled 37-0 by Wisconsin last week.

In other words, the Jekyll and Hyde team reminds me of, well, Michigan.

Michigan upset Notre Dame and came within two of Iowa, but lost to Michigan State and got pounded by Illinois and Penn State.

So the question is: which team will show up…for both teams?

If the Michigan team from the beginning of the season shows up, Michigan should win this one fairly easily. But if Dr. Hyde returns in the form of the Salvation Army, it could spell another long day, and another long off-season for Michigan.

Michigan has turned the ball over 7 times (and gained none) in the past two games and has a minus-10 turnover differential overall.

The biggest key to this game is stopping the big plays, and actually creating turnovers, which for this Michigan defense is much easier said than done.

Michigan gave up eight plays of over 20 yards last week against Illinois, a problem that has plagued the team all year long.

Purdue has a quarterback, Joey Elliott that ranks third in the Big Ten in passing, at 231.2 yards per game and second in touchdowns, with 14.

Receivers Keith Smith (60 receptions for 757 yards and 4 TDs) and Aaron Valentin (45 receptions for 535 yards and 7 TDs) will be a problem for Michigan’s secondary to contain.

Add in the fact that the Purdue offensive line has given up just 14 sacks through eight games, and Michigan could be forced to put up big numbers on offense to win the game.

Michigan has to be able to put pressure on Elliott to keep him from burning the secondary.

Purdue has also shown a knack for turning the ball over. In six losses, it has given up the ball 20 times, and Purdue has only one game (against Illinois) in which it had no turnovers.

This might just be the game Michigan needs to re-gain its confidence heading into the final two games against Wisconsin and Ohio State.

The second key to the game for Michigan is running the ball. Senior Brandon Minor is expected to play, and possibly start on Saturday, which should give Michigan its best running game possible.

Purdue ranks ninth in the Big Ten in rush defense, giving up 168.4 yards per game. Michigan should be able to run early and often, but must even that out with some resemblance of a passing game.

Purdue boasts the conference’s best pass defense and that doesn’t bode well for a Michigan team that lacks a polished receiving threat and will be without its top slot receiver, Martavious Odoms for the second straight week.

Freshman quarterback Tate Forcier has to be able to connect with tight ends Kevin Koger and Martell Webb over the middle to keep the Purdue defense from stacking the box.

That will allow Michigan to run the ball, which is even more important given that Purdue has one of the top defensive ends in the conference, in Ryan Kerrigan. He ranks first in the Big Ten in sacks this season, with nine, and ranks third in tackles-for-loss, with 14.5.

If Michigan can’t keep the Purdue defense honest with occasional passes to open up the running game, Forcier could be running for his life a lot.

Finally, Michigan has to play with confidence.

Last week, Michigan took a 13-7 lead into halftime and marched the opening drive of the second half down to the Illinois six-inch line. But then it failed to get into the end zone in four plays, and everything went down-hill from there.

Illinois out-scored Michigan 31-0 the rest of the way and Michigan was unable to respond.

This week, if something happens, the team needs to be able to pick itself up and bounce back. I know this is a very young team without much senior leadership, but it has to be able to pull itself off the mat and keep fighting.

With all that said, I’m skeptical about this game. At first glance, Purdue seems like an easy win, but when comparing the match-ups, it’s a lot closer.

Both teams are coming off bad road losses, but Michigan has the luxury of returning home to the friendly Maize and Blue-clad fans. And thankfully, Purdue’s quarterback isn’t the mobile-type quarterback that gives Michigan fits.

With its back up against the wall, I think Michigan will respond with one of its best outings of the season to at least give Michigan fans hope for the final two games.

Prediction: Michigan 36 – Purdue 21