Well, to make what might be the understatement of the year for Michigan fans, that was painful. It was fun for about the first four minutes and four seconds when Denard Robinson led Michigan right down the field for an impressive touchdown. Then Mississippi State got the ball and the game was over. The Bulldogs spotted Michigan another touchdown and then proceeded to run up 42 straight points including a 31 yard touchdown pass on 4th-and-10 with a 31-point lead and 10 minutes left.

Against Ohio State or Michigan State or Wisconsin I might have been mad. But Mississippi State put on a clinic, making me envious of a fast, talented, well-coached defense. A defense that sees what the opponent’s offense is doing and makes changes to counter it. Must be nice.

Instead, I saw a Michigan defense that was consistently out of place, running from the sideline at the last second before a snap, players running across the field not knowing where to line up, and having absolutely no clue how to stop an opponent it got five weeks to prepare for. An opponent that didn’t score that many points in a game all season, including against the powerhouses of Memphis, Alcorn State, Houston, and UAB.

If Michigan could play entire games solely on offense or if football games were just 15 minutes long, Michigan might be national champions. Unfortunately, defense is half the game and games are 60 minutes long. Michigan dominated the first quarter this season, outscoring opponents 122-64. But once things settled down, we saw week after week that opposing coaches were able to make changes and Michigan’s weren’t. In second quarters this season, Michigan was outscored 194-83.

All season long, I’ve publicly supported Rich Rodriguez getting a fourth year. At this point, I’m as close to changing my mind as I have been all year. After the loss to Penn State on Oct. 30, I created the Rich Rod-ometer which showed my level of acceptance with the coach at an all-time low. Now, if I were to show an updated version, there would be just a tiny sliver of white on the right-hand side.

It’s not that I want Michigan AD Dave Brandon to let Rodriguez go; I still do think he can produce some great teams here and is headed in the right direction. But I also think that something needs to change. And that something is the defense. For the second year in Rodriguez’s three seasons Michigan allowed more points than its offense scored. The last time that happened was 1967.

I wish it could have worked out too, Coach Rob, but it's time to part ways

My opinion is that Brandon should put up as much money as it takes to get the best defensive coordinator he can possibly get, ideally West Virginia DC Jeff Casteel. I think the perception that Rodriguez doesn’t care about defense is false. He’s definitely an offensive-minded coach, but he had good defenses in Morgantown when Casteel was on his staff. Due to a mixture of lack of talent, youth, bad luck, and a poor fit with Greg Robinson, Michigan’s defense has regressed each of the past three seasons.

Yes, you can blame Rodriguez for hiring Robinson, but it’s not like he was an unproven no-name defensive coordinator. He had some credentials and two Super Bowl rings to prove it. Whether it was injuries, youth, or being forced to run Rodriguez’s 3-3-5 (I’m sure it was a combination of the three), he just didn’t work out. And now he should be shown the door where he will undoubtedly succeed somewhere else.

With nearly every defensive starter returning and getting senior cornerback Troy Woolfolk back from injury, this defense could be much improved next season, especially under Casteel or another top-notch coordinator. If it’s even average, it could be enough for a Big Ten title run next season with the talent returning on offense.

I admit that I am intrigued by the thought of Jim Harbaugh replacing Rodriguez, but I still don’t think it will yield short-term results. Harbaugh will give fans, alumni, and boosters a “Michigan Man” at the helm and he will add some fire to the Ohio State game. But he also presents a philosophy shift back to where Michigan was three years ago. All progress from the past three years will be lost and another period of growing pains will ensue. Denard will probably leave (but not to the NFL) and a number of others will too.

Remember, Harbaugh’s resurrection of Stanford followed nearly the exact same evolution as Rodriguez’s has at Michigan (4-8, 5-7, 8-5 with a bowl loss, and now 11-1, compared to Rodriguez’s 3-5, 5-7, 7-6 to date).  With a revamped defensive staff, next year’s Michigan team certainly has the talent for a similar season as Stanford’s this year. And that’s where my hesitation with giving up on Rodriguez lies.

Keeping everything intact is not an option at this point. So if something has to change I think keeping Rodriguez and going after Casteel or another top-notch defensive coordinator has the same long-term potential as firing Rodriguez and hiring Harbaugh. The difference for me is in the short-term. I think Rodriguez with an experienced offense led by a junior Denard and even an average defense will have a better season than Harbaugh without Denard and possibly several others, running a different offense than what has been run the past three years.

Ultimately, the decision rests with Brandon and I know he has done his due diligence and will make the best decision for the University of Michigan. Whether that’s sticking with Rodriguez or bringing back Captain Comeback, I’ll support it 100 percent. But despite the letdown this New Years Day, I still think Rodriguez’s best days are ahead.

Bowl season used to be one day to look forward to while ringing in the new year with friends, family, and if you’re fortunate, watching your favorite team play an opponent it doesn’t typically play in a warm and sunny spot you wish you were in. These days, we don’t even get a break in between the last game of the regular season and a watered down slate of games you really don’t care to watch but watch anyway because your only other viewing options are Glee or reruns of House.

Michigan vs. #21 Mississippi State
Saturday, Jan. 1, 2011 – 1:30 p.m. ET – ESPN2
7-5	Record	8-4
UConn 30-10 Notre Dame 28-24 UMass 42-37 Bowling Green 65-21 Indiana 42-35 Illinois 67-65 (3OT) Purdue 27-16	Wins	Memphis 49-7 Georgia 24-12 Alcorn State 49-16 Houston 47-24 #22 Florida 10-7 UAB 29-24 Kentucky 24-17 Mississippi 31-23
#17 Mich. St. 17-34 #15 Iowa 28-38 Penn State 31-41 #7 Wisconsin 28-48 #8 Ohio State 7-37	Losses	#21 Auburn 14-17 #15 LSU 7-29 #12 Alabama 10-30 #13 Arkansas 31-38 2OT
34.3	Scoring Offense	27.1
251.1	Rushing YPG	215.8
249.8	Passing YPG	178.6
500.9	Total Offense	394.3
33.8	Scoring Defense	20.3
187.7	Rush Defense YPG	121.7
260.2	Pass Defense YPG	236.4
447.9	Total Defense YPG	358.1
18	Takeaways	26
27	Giveaways	20
17	Sacks By	26
11	Sacks Allowed	22
75/162 (46%)	Third-down Conv.	81/179 (45%)
4/13	Field Goals	12/18
36.7	Net Punt Avg.	38.2

And so it is that we’ve finally arrived at that one day of the year where college football takes precedence over everything else and we Michigan fans get to watch a game we’ve been looking forward to since that brutal game on November 27.

Tomorrow’s matchup with No. 21 Mississippi State takes on added significance after Michigan’s two-year absence from post-season play and the fate of Head Coach Rich Rodriguez hanging in the balance.

Michigan always plays well against SEC teams (20-5-1 all-time and 7-3 in bowl games), but as we’ve learned the past three seasons, this isn’t the Michigan of old anymore.

That could spell doom for Rodriguez, but I don’t think the outcome of Saturday’s game will factor into his fate, and that’s the last thing I’ll say about the coaching situation.

Perhaps the most important factor for Michigan is the health of Denard Robinson who, by all accounts, is as healthy as he has been all season. He struggled late in the season when he was banged up and didn’t seem to have the same burst he displayed early in the season. But Saturday he’ll be healthy and playing in the warm and sunny weather of his home state of Florida.

Mississippi State is an interesting study. It’s a team that hung tough with Auburn and Arkansas, but didn’t really beat anybody good all season and barely survived 4-8 UAB. In other words, its season is reminiscent of Michigan’s.

The strength of the Bulldogs is the defense, led by linebacker Chris White, an all-SEC first team defender who gets the task of trying to slow down Robinson.

In week two, White and the Bulldog defense held Heisman winner Cam Newton to his worst performance of the season. Auburn won 17-14, but Newton completed just 11-of-19 passes for 136 yards and two touchdowns and rushed 18 times for 70 yards (3.9 yards per carry).

Head Coach Dan Mullen hopes to replicate that performance against Michigan on Saturday, but what give me hope is that performance was a long time ago. In the last five games, MSU’s defense gave up an average of 26.4 points per game. That’s good news for Michigan since the Bulldog offense doesn’t exactly light up the scoreboards, ranking in the middle of the pack nationally in points scored.

Offensively, the Bulldogs’ best player is tackle Derek Sherrod, a second-team All-American who figures to be a first round draft pick in the 2011 NFL Draft. He has helped pave the way for the nation’s 16th-best rush offense, but his line has also allowed 22 sacks. An interesting matchup to watch will be Michigan’s defensive line against Sherrod and company. Can Mike Martin, Ryan Van Bergen, and Craig Roh pressure quarterback Chris Relf or get into the backfield to disrupt the run game? If so, it will help Michigan’s young and oft-maligned secondary.

Mississippi State’s pass offense is it’s weakness, ranking 91st in the nation with just 178.6 yards per game. Much of that has to do with the strength of its running game, but Relf ranks 52nd nationally in pass efficiency, just behind Indiana’s Ben Chappell.

Expect the Bulldogs to pound the ball on the ground and try to keep Michigan’s offense off the field, much like Wisconsin did, except out of a spread similar to Illinois’ (and Michigan’s for that matter). That could play into Michigan’s hands since the defense goes up against a similar style offense in practice every day.

Robinson warms up during practice in Jacksonville

According to Rodriguez, Michigan should get junior receiver Martavious Odoms back from a foot injury that has sidelined him since the Michigan State game. If he really is healthy enough to play at full speed, that will help Michigan both in the run and pass game. Odoms is the most experienced wideout on the team,with sure hands, and despite his small frame, is a great blocking receiver to set up Robinson’s runs.

Also healthy is Michigan’s best offensive lineman, center David Molk who missed time in the last few games with a foot injury. His presence will help combat White and MSU linemen Pernell McPhee, Josh Boyd, and Fletcher Cox.

The strength of the Bulldog rush defense and weakness of its pass defense leads me to believe Michigan will look to pass a little more than usual. Rodriguez loves to run to open up the pass, but a couple shots downfield early on could open up the running lanes for Robinson and backs Michael Shaw and Vincent Smith and keep the safeties from creeping up. In the last five games, MSU gave up 257 yards per game through the air, which is almost exactly what Michigan’s secondary has allowed this season.

Three Predictions:

1. Denard has more rushing yards AND more passing yards than Cam Newton did against Mississippi State

2. Michigan’s defense turns in one of  its best performances of the season

3. Roy Roundtree eclipses 1,000 yards for the season

Overall, I think the game rests solely in the hands of Robinson. If the Robinson of the first half of the season shows up, Michigan will be in good shape. If the Robinson of the second half shows up, it will be a long day. The absence of Tate Forcier, who was ruled academically ineligible yesterday makes the health of Robinson of utmost importance. Freshman Devin Gardner, who was the first QB off the bench in the season opener against UConn, would be the backup, but it would mean burning his medical redshirt that Rodriguez hopes will keep him two years behind Robinson and Forcier.

As long as Robinson doesn’t get banged up, I think Michigan will be able to score around 30 points, which should be enough to beat the Bulldogs. And then the real waiting begins.

Michigan 31 – Mississippi State 27

As if any more commentary on the current Michigan coaching situation is called for, I need to bring closure to the regular season by injecting my stance into the conversation.

It has been no secret over the course of the past three seasons that I have supported Rich Rodriguez. I have been one of a group that has been declining in number and popularity by the week and I’m not quite ready to give in just yet.

Rodriguez celebrates a comeback win over Wisconsin in 2008 (AP Photo/Tony Ding)

It was our beloved legend Bo Schembechler who once said, “When your team is winning, be ready to be tough, because winning can make you soft; on the other hand, when your team is losing, stick by them. Keep believing.”

I suppose you can support the team but not Rodriguez, and the argument could be made that if you truly want what’s best for the team you should want the coach who has gone 15-21 in the past three seasons gone, but I’m still believing. I’ve never been one to make knee-jerk decisions. I believe in giving people a chance and standing by a decision. I also think a college football coach should be given at least four years, or long enough to field a team full of his own recruits.

Unfortunately, that’s not the way things work these days. We’ve let our fast food mentality permeate our sports expectations to the point that if a coach doesn’t win the national championship in his first season, fans are already calling for his head.

In the case of Rodriguez, the reasons things have gone the way they have gone have been discussed over and over again, so I won’t get into that. Instead, I’ll present my reasoning for wanting to keep him.

To begin with, progress has been made in each of Rodriguez’s first three seasons. In 2008, the team went 3-9; in 2009, it went 5-7; and in 2010, it is currently 7-5 with a chance to make it 8-5 with a New Years Day bowl win over Mississippi State.

The tired, “Yeah but it’s Michigan” meme needs to stop because it’s arrogant and ignorant. I want nothing more than to be winning Big Ten championships and playing in BCS bowls year-after-year, but three years ago we were all clamoring for a change from that. We were the ones unhappy with simply competing for Big Ten titles each year and getting blown out by USC in Rose Bowls. We were the ones excited when Lloyd Carr retired because of the possibility of ushering Michigan football into the modern era.

Then the father of the spread offense came to Ann Arbor and inherited a team full of Carr’s guys, and they weren’t the ones that led the team to those Big Ten titles. They’re now playing on Sundays. He was left with walk-on Nick Sheridan and freshman Steven Three to quarterback his first Michigan team. We all know how year one went: offensive ineptitude at a level Michigan hadn’t seen in a long, long time.

The offense scored just 243 points in that first season, an average of just 20.3 per game, as it struggled to move the ball on anyone other than Minnesota. It lost at home to Toledo, Northwestern, and Purdue and got trounced by Notre Dame, Illinois, Penn State, Michigan State, and Ohio State. Those games weren’t even competitive and we all had our egos bruised.

Year two saw Rodriguez bring in some of his own guys, his first true recruiting class, and he finally had the anchors of his offense in quarterbacks Tate Forcier and Denard Robinson.

Forcier was the quarterback to lead the Wolverines that season and the freshman growing pains were evident but the team showed significant progress. It scored 354 points, an average of 29.5 per game, and stayed competitive for much of the season. It beat Notre Dame, took Michigan State to overtime, and nearly came back to beat Iowa on the road, but still failed to really compete against Penn State, Illinois, Wisconsin, and Ohio State, and lost again to Purdue.

Progress was made, but it was essentially a freshman offense. It’s hard enough to win with a quarterback who was at prom six months ago, let alone when his surrounding cast is made up of youth as well.

This season, enormous strides were made offensively and Michigan improved to one of the best offenses in the nation, scoring 412 points, an average of 34.3 per game. The team turned a lot of heads eraly in the season with the breakout performance of Denard Robinson, who beat out Forcier for the starting spot. Robinson broke the NCAA FBS quarterback rushing record by 149 yards and still has a bowl game to add on to that.

Michigan crushed Connecticut, which won the Big East, outlasted Notre Dame on the road, and won a three-overtime thriller over Illinois, but was still unable to beat the big boys of the Big Ten, which has been the biggest knock on Rodriguez to date.

The critics say that beating up on the Indianas and Purdues of the world don’t mean anything if he can’t beat Iowa, Penn State, Wisconsin, and most importantly, rivals Michigan State and Ohio State. That’s true, but it depends on whether your definition of improvement consists of a giant leap for mankind or stepping stones. If you expect Rodriguez to be Neil Armstrong, then you’re sorely disappointed. But if you see the slow and steady improvement as reason to believe, then you should be confident that the wins over the big boys are coming soon.

Two years ago, Michigan wasn’t good enough to beat Toledo. Last year, it could beat the MAC, but couldn’t beat Illinois or Purdue. This year, it beat Illinois and handled Purdue on the road, but still couldn’t crack the top dogs. The logical line of progression would be a couple of wins over those guys next season.

I believe it’s coming because the offense is only going to get better with another year of experience and only one departing starter, and the defense only has one way to go: up.

With the offense, let’s take a look at Oregon. Last season, the Ducks went 10-3, averaging 36 points per game. It had the nation’s sixth-best rush offense and 33rd-best total offense. It outscored the majority of its opponents, but lost 19-8 to Boise State and also lost to Stanford and in the Rose Bowl to Ohio State. In short, it was a really good offense, but still waiting to break out.

This season, the Ducks’ offense exploded. It is first in the nation in points per game (49.33), second in total offense, and fourth in rush offense. Most importantly, it’s undefeated and set to face Auburn in the BCS title game on Jan. 10.

I think Michigan’s offense has a chance to blow up next season similar to Oregon this season. Robinson will be in his second season as the starter, all the running backs will return with the addition of big-time recruits Justice Hayes and possibly Dee Hart*, all receivers return from a group that was pretty dynamic this season, including one of the Big Ten’s best in Roy Roundtree, and the majority of the line returns as well. It will be the fourth season in Rodriguez’s system, which will allow the unit to function on a higher level.

Rodriguez speaks at the Michigan football banquet (Photo by the Detroit News)

While the offense has progressed in each of the past three years, the main problem has been the defense which has seemingly gotten worse each year. But despite the decline from allowing 28.9 points per game in 2008 to 33.83 this season, I believe the defense is due to break out like the offense did the past couple of seasons.

It’s no secret that this year’s unit was riddled with injuries and youth. Just as it’s hard to win with a freshman quarterback, it’s even harder to stop anybody with freshmen on defense. One or two freshmen can succeed if surrounded by experienced talent, but when your entire defense is relying on freshmen surrounded by sophomores, you’re begging for trouble.

I’m not trying to make any excuses for the defense, but we knew heading into the season it was going to be rough. Then, the week of the opening game, the senior leader of the unit, Troy Woolfolk suffered a season-ending ankle injury, leaving the defense without its leader.

Next season, Woolfolk returns, and the only defensive players who played prominent roles that Michigan loses are linebackers Jonas Mouton and Obi Ezeh and lineman Greg Banks. Mouton was hit-or-miss this season. He was Michigan’s best linebacker by default, making some big plays, but he also tended to overpursue and take poor angles, leading to big runs. Ezeh lost his starting spot midway through the season and Banks played well at the end of the season, but his departure will allow Craig Roh to move into the end spot that he should have been in all season.

The one bright spot of playing so many young guys so prominently is the experience they gained. Many people criticized Rodriguez for playing his guys and installing his offense right from the start in 2008, but that has paid off with one of the nation’s best offenses this season. The defense will follow a similar progression in the next couple of years. If it can just improve to average next season, it should be good for another couple of wins.

This season, it’s 102nd in the nation in scoring defense. It doesn’t have to be top ten, but even if you put it at 60th, which is exactly middle-of-the-road, it would have given up 7.5 points less per game. That would have turned many of the losses this season into much closer games and would have given the offense a chance to win them.

The most popular conjecture among Michigan fans right now is that defensive coordinator Greg Robinson should be fired, but I’m not 100 percent sold on that either. The young defense needs consistency above all, since it has had three different coordinators in four years. The only reason I’d be in favor of giving up on Robinson is if Rodriguez can lure West Virginia defensive coordinator Jeff Casteel away from Morgantown.

Casteel was Rodriguez’s coordinator at WVU and runs the same 3-3-5 defense that Rodriguez has Robinson running at Michigan. Casteel has kept the Mountaineers’ defense ranked highly, and this season it ranks second in the nation, giving up just 12.75 points per game. Michigan would be in the BCS national championship game this season with that defense.

All that to say, I think Rodriguez has the building blocks in place to continue getting better and to warrant another season in Ann Arbor. His players love him, he does some great things off the field, and his speech and actions at last Thursday’s Michigan football bust shows a passion that Michigan fans should revere, not mock.

Jim Harbaugh^ seems to be the flavor of the week right now, just like Rodriguez was three years ago, and he’ll most likely still be at Stanford next season. If I’m wrong, and continued progress isn’t present in 2011, then I may be willing to go after him at that time. I just don’t think the time is right yet.

_________________________________________________________________________________

*There has been some recent speculation of Hart switching his commitment to Alabama, but nothing has been confirmed yet.

^I do like Harbaugh, and if Michigan athletic director Dave Brandon does decide to can Rodriguez and hire Harbaugh, I will fully support him. But like I said above, I’m not ready to give up on Rodriguez yet because I think his best days are ahead.

To paraphrase legendary Michigan broadcaster Bob Ufer, we’re going down to the snakepit at Ohio State and our Maize in Blue dobbers are high right now cuz we’re getting ready to do battle with Dr. Sweatervest and his Scarlet and Grey Legions.

Ufer, of course, was talking about Dr. Strangehayes, former OSU head coach Woody Hayes, but a case could certainly be made that Dr. Sweatervest, current Ohio State head coach Jim Tressel, has his Scarlet and Grey Legions more of a threat to Michigan than Hayes ever did.

In remembrance of good times

Ohio State is looking for its seventh straight win over Michigan, which would be the longest in the 106-year rivalry since Michigan won nine straight from 1901-’09.

Michigan hasn’t won since 2003, when Chris Perry and Braylon Edwards lit up the 4th-ranked Buckeyes as Michigan won 35-21. It hasn’t won in Columbus since 2000 when Drew Henson led the Wolverines to a 38-26 victory.

To do the same tomorrow, Michigan will need its defense to step up and its offense to perform like it did against Illinois three weeks ago. It will be a tall task against a Buckeye team that ranks eighth in the nation, its only loss a 31-18 defeat at Wisconsin on Oct. 16.

Stranger things have happened in the rivalry in which the old cliche “throw out the records” certainly applies, and more often than not, it has been Michigan on the positive end of that.

Michigan will be looking to recapture the magic of the 1969 and 1993 teams which upset highly favored Ohio State teams.

The ’69 team, in Bo Schembechler’s first season as head coach, entered the matchup as 17-point underdogs (which is the same as it is for this season’s game) to the first-ranked Buckeyes, a team many thought was unbeatable. Ohio State had beaten Michgian 50-14 the year before, but when all was said and done, Michigan emerged victorious, 24-12.

The 1993 game is perhaps more similar to this season, as Ohio State entered with a record of 9-0-1, ranked 5th in the nation, and Michigan came in 6-4, having lost to Notre Dame, Michigan State, Illinois, and Wisconsin. Virtually nobody gave Michigan a chance, but Michigan dominated, rushing for 285 yards and winning 28-0.

If that happens tomorrow, it will probably signal the apocalypse since Michigan’s defense ranks as one of the nation’s worst and Ohio State’s offense is ninth in points per game.

Michigan vs. #8 Ohio State
	Sat. Nov. 27 12 p.m. ET ABC/ESPN
7-4	Record	10-1
UConn 30-10 Notre Dame 28-24 UMass 42-37 Bowling Green 65-21 Indiana 42-35 Illinois 67-65 (3OT) Purdue 27-16	Wins	Marshal 45-7 #12 Miami 36-24 Ohio 43-7 E. Michgian 73-20 Illinois 24-13 Indiana 38-10 Purdue 49-0 Minnesota 52-10 Penn St. 38-14 #20 Iowa 20-17
#17 Mich. St. 17-34 #15 Iowa 28-38 Penn State 31-41 #7 Wisconsin 28-48	Losses	#18 Wisconsin 18-31
36.8	Scoring Offense	39.6
257.4	Rushing YPG	216.2
257.2	Passing YPG	230.0
514.5	Total Offense	446.2
33.5	Scoring Defense	13.9
181.3	Rush Defense YPG	86.4
263.9	Pass Defense YPG	155.1
445.2	Total Defense YPG	241.5
17	Takeaways	26
24	Giveaways	14
16/10	Sacks By/Allowed	18/21
70/147 (48%)	Third-down Conv.	61/137 (45%)
4/13	Field Goals	16/21
36.9	Net Punt Avg.	34.0

So is this Michigan team capable of pulling off an upset for the ages? I think the answer is yes, but it will take a flawless effort to pull it off.

I believe it all rests on Michigan’s defense selling out to stop the run, which it did not do last week against Wisconsin. One thing that’s fairly certain is that Jim Tressel is going to want to run the ball, control the clock, and keep Michigan’s offense off the field. That’s essentially Tressel’s modus operandi as it is, but as Wisconsin showed last week, Michigan’s defense has been helpless to stop anything other than a second-string Purdue offense in rainy conditions.

Ohio State’s offense averages 216 yards per game rushing, good for 17th nationally. The workhorse is Dan Herron who has run for 893 yards and 14 touchdowns, averaging 5.3 yards per carry this season. Two weeks ago, he gashed Penn State for 190 yards and a touchdown, an average of nine yards per carry. Last week, however, Iowa held Herron to just 69 yards on 20 carries, 3.5 yards per carry.

The second-leading rusher is quarterback Terrelle Pryor with 590 yards and four touchdowns. In Ohio State’s offense, Pryor doesn’t have to run as much as Michigan’s Denard Robinson, but he’s certainly dangerous and hard to bring down when he does. In last year’s meeting, Pryor rushed for 116 yards minus sacks.

It’s the passing game where Pryor is most vulnerable. Don’t get me wrong, he’s improved in the past couple of years and has some good targets with Dane Sanzenbacher and Devier Posey, but if there’s any weakness Michigan can try to exploit, it’s Pryor’s tendency to make poor decisions when pressured.

Pryor has thrown for 2,331 yards and 23 touchdowns, but has been picked off in each of the last five games, including twice last week against Iowa. In Ohio State’s only loss, to Wisconsin, Pryor completed just 14-of-28 passes for 156 yards, no touchdowns, and an interception.

Michigan has to be able to stuff the run on first and second down, forcing Pryor to make plays on third-and-long.

Sanzenbacher is the most dangerous receiving threat and if Michigan sells out for the run, he could have a monster game. Last week, when Wisconsin decided to pass, the middle of the field was consistently wide open. The only hope defensively is for Michigan to bring a lot of pressure and force Pryor to make mistakes. Yes, it will yield some big plays, but that might be beneficial to give Michigan’s offfense the ball back instead of Ohio State bleeding the clock with time-consuming drives.

Offensively, Michigan is going to have to take advantage of its opportunities. Overthrown open receivers like last week can’t happen. Neither can dropped passes that have seemed to plague the offense this season, leading to intereceptions on the very next play.

To win, it’s going to take around 35 points, a feat Michigan hasn’t accomplished against a ranked team yet this season. One could say Michigan is due for an offensive breakout, but it’s not likely against Ohio State’s defense which boasts the nation’s third-best rush defense, seventh-best pass defense, fifth-best scoring defense, and third-best total defense.

The Bucks allow just 86 rushing yards per game and have allowed just one 100-yard rusher all season, Wisconsin’s John Clay who gained 104 yards on 21 carries. In last year’s matchup, Michigan managed just 108 yards on 31 carries as a team, not counting sacks.

On special teams, I would love to see Darryl Stonum return kicks like he did late in the game last week and all season last year. He consistently gives Michigan better field position, as well as a home run threat, as opposed to freshman Jeremy Gallon. The only catch will be if Stonum isn’t healthy enough after getting injured on a return last week. He is expected to play, but whether he’ll be healthy enough to return kicks isn’t yet known. If he is healthy, I see no reason not to let him return the kicks tomorrow since it’s the last game of the season.

Three Predictions:

1. Denard throws for 250 yards

2. Dan Herron rushes for 150 yards

3. Michigan has the lead at halftime

Overall, I think Tressel will keep it conservative enough to keep Michigan in the game for a while. If Tressel’s game plan is to come out throwing or in the spread on first down, Michigan is in for a long day. If Michigan can stuff the run and force Pryor to make plays on third-and-long, Michigan has a chance.

I don’t think the offense can score enough to keep up, but it should at least be enough to keep it close and assure Rich Rodriguez’s return next season.

Ohio State 33 – Michigan 24

Eleven games into the season, I’ve either gotten this Michigan team figured out or I’ve become so desensitized to losses that it’s what I’ve come to expect against teams not from the Mid-American Conference or the state of Indiana.

Montee Ball runs away from Michigan defenders (photo by the Detroit News)

All three of my predictions came true on Saturday, and while they weren’t too far out on a limb, they were right on, and save for a late touchdown by Wisconsin, the final score would have been exactly right too.

I don’t want to be right on those predictions, so it’s not exactly something I’m proud about. I’d much rather be completely wrong and Michigan win, but unfortunately, that’s where we are right now.

While defensive progress appeared to have been made last week in a 27-16 win over Purdue, window dressing is all it really was. Purdue was essentially playing with its second-team offense and the game was played in poor weather conditions, making good offense the exception rather than the norm.

So when Wisconsin came to town with its steamroller offense, everybody knew what the Badgers’ offensive strategy would be: run, run, run, and sprinkle in a pass here and there. Quarterback Scott Tolzien completed 14-of-15 passes for 201 yards, all of one of those passes coming in the first half when Wisconsin jumped out to a 24-0 lead.

From there on, Wisconsin ran the ball on 33 out of 34 plays in the second half, and Michigan was helpless to stop it as the Badgers rolled up 357 rushing yards.

The loss dropped Michigan to 7-4 on the season, 3-4 in the Big Ten, and set up a chance to play spoiler, and salvage the season, this Saturday in Columbus. I won’t go as far as to say this is the most important game in Rich Rodriguez’s three-year tenure at Michigan, since I think he’s returning next season no matter the outcome, but if Michigan wins it would certainly be his biggest win during that time.

Ohio State sits in a three-way tie for first with Wisconsin and Michigan State. Wisconsin beat Ohio State 31-18 on Oct. 17, and Ohio State doesn’t play Michigan State this season, so if Ohio State beats Michigan, it will claim a share of the Big Ten title and likely receive a BCS bowl game since it’s ranked higher than Michigan State in the BCS standings.

A Michigan win would keep Ohio State from reaching its sixth straight Big Ten title and a sixth straight BCS bowl. It would also give Rodriguez his first win over a ranked team since 2008 when Michigan beat No. 9 Wisconsin. That Wisconsin team was vastly overrated at the time and finished the season with a 7-6 record, so beating Ohio State on Saturday would easily top that one.

But most importantly, it would end Michigan’s six game losing streak to the Buckeyes, the longest in the rivalry since the 1920s. After dominating the 90s, Michigan has seemingly forgotten how to beat Ohio State since Jim Tressel took over. Ohio state fans love to point out that it has been two thousand and something days since Michigan has beaten Ohio State. Beat Ohio State on Saturday and Rodriguez will regain much of the Michigan fan base heading into the bowl game.

Ohio State is by far the better team this season and will be heavily favored, but just ask the 1993, ’95, and ’96 Buckeye teams if the better team always wins. The beauty of the rivalry is that you can throw out the records. Let Buckeye week begin!

Robinson broke the FBS single-season rushing record by a quarterback (AP photo)

Hats off to Denard Robinson for breaking Beau Morgan’s record for rushing yards by a quarterback in a single season. His 121 rushing yards against Wisconsin also made him the first 1,500 yard rusher and passer in NCAA history, not to mention the first player to have 1,500 yards rushing and 2,000 yards passing in a single season.

The sophomore in his first season as a starter has been electrifying for Michigan this season and gives the Wolverines a lot of hope for the next two years.

He’s now 403 yards short of the all-college football quarterback rushing record, which was set by Chris Sharpe of Div. III’s Springfield (Mass.) College. He would have to average 202 yards per game to break that record, which is a tall task considering Ohio State’s rush defense which ranks third in the nation.

Injuries are hitting Michigan hard in the last few games of the season. Already having lost starting receiver Martavious Odoms and cornerback J.T. Floyd, and nose tackle Mike Martin and center David Molk having missed all or parts of the past few games, Michigan suffered another blow on Saturday. Receiver Darryl Stonum was inured returning a kick late in the game and running back Vincent Smith and defensive end Craig Roh each suffered what appeared to be concussions.

Stonum ranks second on the team in receptions and third in receiving yards with 493. He also has four touchdowns. Smith is the leading running back 571 yards and five touchdowns. Roh has been more effective as a defensive end since moving there from linebacker.

All three of those guys will be needed this Saturday if Michigan has any shot to win. Hopefully Stonum is healthy enough to keep returning kicks, because at this point, he’s light years better than Jeremy Gallon, who has been Michigan’s returner most of the season.

After the game, Stonum tweeted, “hopefully I’m ok (I think I am) but its gonna take a whole lot to keep me out of this next game.”

Roy Roundtree’s 114 yards against Wisconsin put him within striking distance of becoming Michigan’s first 1,000-yard receiver since Mario Manningham in 2007. For the season, he has 839 yards, just 37 behind Northwestern’s Jeremy Ebert for the Big Ten lead. With two games remaining, at Ohio State on Saturday and a bowl game, Roundtree needs to average 80.5 receiving yards to eclipse 1,000.

He would join the ranks of Manningham, Jason Avant (2005), Braylon Edwards (2002, ’03, ’04), Marquis Walker (2001), and David Terrell (2000) as the only Michigan receivers to reach 1,000 yards since 2000.

[Ed.: The below chart will live on the Wolverine Watch page for the rest of the season]

[Ed.: I want to give a special shout out to the U of M Club of Denver. If you're ever in the area for the weekend, make sure to go to Lodo's in downtown, across the street from Coors Field to watch a Michigan game. I've been to U of M alumni game-watching events in Boston, Baltimore, Albany, New York, Washington D.C., and now Denver, and this place takes the cake. Huge turnout of UM fans (even at 10am local time for the Purdue game), halftime raffles, good food, and good beer.]

In the last two games, Michigan turned in its best offensive output and worst offensive output of the season. The former had the benefit of three overtime periods, while the latter was at least in part the result of poor weather in West Lafayette, Ind. Both resulted in wins that made Michigan bowl eligible and assured a winning season for the first time in Rich Rodriguez’s tenure, but if the latter shows up on Saturday, a win won’t be the result.

Michigan vs. Wisconsin
	Sat. Nov. 20 12 p.m. ET ESPN
7-3	Record	9-1
UConn 30-10 Notre Dame 28-24 UMass 42-37 Bowling Green 65-21 Indiana 42-35 Illinois 67-65 (3OT) Purdue 27-16	Wins	UNLV 41-21 San Jose St. 27-14 Arizona State 20-19 Austin Peay 70-3 Minnesota 41-23 #1 Ohio State 31-18 #15 Iowa 31-30 Purdue 34-13 Indiana 83-20
#17 Mich. St. 17-34 #15 Iowa 28-38 Penn State 31-41	Losses	#24 Mich. St. 24-34
37.7	Scoring Offense	40.2
266.3	Rushing YPG	228.2
255.5	Passing YPG	200.3
521.8	Total Offense	428.5
32.1	Scoring Defense	19.5
163.7	Rush Defense YPG	125.1
270.2	Pass Defense YPG	190.5
433.9	Total Defense YPG	315.6
15	Takeaways	14
22	Giveaways	7
15/8	Sacks By/Allowed	20/11
64/135 (47%)	Third-down Conv.	56/109 (51%)
4/12	Field Goals	13/17
36.6	Net Punt Avg.	36.9

Wisconsin comes to town fresh off an 83-20 plastering of Indiana and that was without last season’s Big Ten Player of the Year, John Clay. At 9-1 and ranked seventh in the nation, Wisconsin is two wins away from a likely Rose Bowl berth and at least a share of the Big Ten title. It features the 12th-best rushing offense in the nation, averaging 228.2 yards per game on the ground, and the eighth-best scoring offense, averaging 40.2 points per game.

Clay is the best player on the team, having rushed for 929 yards at 5.4 yards per carry so far this season, but as Indiana found out last week, he’s not the only back Wisconsin has. Freshman James White has rushed for 714 yards and 11 touchdowns this season, averaging 6.8 yards per carry. As the featured back last week, White rushed for 144 yards and two touchdowns on 19 carries.

A third back, Monte Ball, has accumulated 513 yards and nine touchdowns this season, making Wisconsin the only team in the nation with three 500-yard rushers so far.

Clay might be out again on Saturday due to an MCL injury he suffered two weeks ago against Purdue, but Michigan will still have its hands full. Against similar power offenses this season, Michigan has allowed 147 yards to Michigan State’s Edwin Baker, 143 yards to Iowa’s Adam Robinson, and 150 to Penn State’s Evan Royster. All three resulted in losses for Michigan.

For Michigan to win, it’s going to have to stack the box and stop the run, forcing Wisconsin quarterback Scott Tolzien to win the game through the air. The Badger pass offense ranks 74th in the nation, averaging just 200.3 yards, although with such an effective running game, it hasn’t had to throw often. The most passes Tolzien has thrown in a game this season is 26 in a 31-30 win over Iowa.

Wisconsin’s receiving corps is solid, but not spectacular. Lance Kendricks leads the way with 31 receptions for 473 yards and four touchdowns. The 6’4″ senior will be a tough matchup for Michigan’s young secondary. He had two straight 100-yard receiving games against Arizona State and Austin Peay, but has averaged just 35 yards per game in the last five.

Junior Nick Toon has played in just six games this season and has caught 25 passes for 294 yards and a touchdown, but he was the guy that torched the Michigan secondary last season, catching five passes for 98 yards and two touchdowns.

Defensively, Wisconsin is good but not great, ranking 23rd in the nation in scoring defense at 19.5 points per game, 21st in total defense, and 25th in pass defense.

Michigan can move the ball on the Badgers, but avoiding turnovers is imperative. In the last five games, Michigan has averaged three-and-a-half turnovers per game, including five in each of the past two. It got away with it against Illinois and Purdue, but Michigan can’t afford to give the ball back to Wisconsin’s bruising offense without scoring.

Wisconsin has allowed a 100-yard rusher in two of the past three games, which bodes well for Michigan, but it will likely defend the run, forcing Denard Robinson to pass more often.

Three predictions

1. Roy Roundtree surpasses 100 yards receiving

2. White and Ball each rush for at least 90 yards

3. Denard breaks the NCAA FBS rushing record for quarterbacks

Overall, I think White and Ball will be too much for Michigan’s young defense and Tolzien will pass just enough to keep the running game effective. Wisconsin will slow down Denard’s running enough to keep Michigan’s offense from firing on all cylinders and Michigan won’t be able to keep up.

Wisconsin 41 – Michigan 28

You know it was an odd game when my 84-year old grandma sends me an email after the game last Saturday that said, “That Michigan game was weird.” She’s the widow of a 1951 Michigan grad and has been watching Michigan football games for nearly 60 years with no real understanding of the game of football. Yet, in the aftermath of Michigan’s 67-65 triple-overtime win over Illinois on Saturday, she knew enough to pronounce it “weird.”

Michigan vs. Purdue
	Sat. Nov. 13 12 p.m. ET Big Ten Network
6-3	Record	4-5
UConn 30-10 Notre Dame 28-24 UMass 42-37 Bowling Green 65-21 Indiana 42-35 Illinois 67-65 (3OT)	Wins	W. Illinois 31-21 Ball State 24-13 Northwestern 20-17 Minnesota 28-17
#17 Mich. State 17-34 #15 Iowa 28-38 Penn State 31-41	Losses	Notre Dame 12-23 Toledo 20-31 #10 Ohio State 0-49 Illinois 44-10 #9 Wisconsin 13-34
38.9	Scoring Offense	17.6
273.4	Rushing YPG	173.2
262.4	Passing YPG	137.3
535.9	Total Offense	310.6
33.9	Scoring Defense	27.7
168.1	Rush Defense YPG	142.8
285.6	Pass Defense YPG	218.2
453.7	Total Defense YPG	361.0
10	Takeaways	13
17	Giveaways	19
12/4	Sacks By/Allowed	27/15
57/118 (48%)	Third-down Conv.	49/137 (36%)
4/11	Field Goals	10/14
36.4	Net Punt Avg.	35.8

The more I thought about it, the more I realized how that’s the perfect word to sum up this season.

We knew the offense was going to be good and the defense was going to struggle, but we didn’t think the offense would be this good and the defense would struggle this much. No one anticipated that we would have a Heisman contender at quarterback setting all kinds of records and no one foresaw our top cornerback suffering a season-ending ankle injury just days before the first game.

And here we are, a win over Purdue away from achieving the mark most of us predicted before the season started, with a chance (albeit an unlikely one) to upset Wisconsin or Ohio State in the final two weeks.

The offense hasn’t truly been stopped all season. It has sputtered at times and has committed its share of mistakes, but there hasn’t been a game yet where the opposing defense flat-out shut it down. Michigan State and Iowa were better all-around teams and I still haven’t figured out what happened at Penn State two weeks ago, but last week was a glimpse of what we have to look forward to in the next few years.

Sixty-seven points (45 in regulation) and one of the most productive games in Michigan football history against the 12th-best defense in the nation prior to last Saturday. This all coming from what is essentially a sophomore offense.

Tomorrow it gets a chance to meet everyone’s preseason expectation, seven wins, and while it’s on the road, it’s against perhaps the perfect opponent – Purdue.

The Boilermakers are struggling in all phases of the game right now. After starting the season 4-2, Purdue has lost its last three games by a combined score of 127-23. It ranks nearly last in scoring offense, with 17.6 points per game, and has a very average defense, giving up 27.7 points per game.

The Boilers will likely be starting true freshman Sean Robinson at quarterback, though Justin Siller, who tore Michigan up two years ago, could return from a sprained foot that he suffered a few weeks ago.

Robinson was expected to redshirt this season, but was forced into action and has completed 32-of-68 passes for 223 yards, two touchdowns, and four interceptions. He quarterbacks what is the worst passing offense in the Big Ten, and one of the worst in the nation, averaging just 137.3 yards per game through the air.

Michigan’s defense, however, tends to make every quarterback look like an All-American this season, so those in West Lafayette are pretty confident that Purdue has a shot.

The team’s strength is its running game, lead by fullback Dan Dierking who has rushed for 458 yards on 5.5 yards per carry and three touchdowns. He had two 100-yard games, against Western Illinois and Minnesota.

Defensively, Purdue is a little below average. Its rush defense ranks 49th in the nation (142.78 ypg), while its pass defense ranks 64th (218.22 ypg) and its scoring defense ranks 74th. The lone bright spot is defensive end Ryan Kerrigan, one of the top defensive linemen in the Big Ten, who has helped Purdue lead the conference in sacks. Fortunately for Michigan, sacks are an afterthought. Michigan leads the Big Ten in fewest sacks allowed with just four.

It’s hard to see how Purdue can win this game. It has scored more than 20 points just five times all season (and no more than 31) and has given up 127 points in the last three games. This should be Michigan’s biggest win of the season.

Denard Robinson needs just 145 yards rushing to set the FBS record for rushing yards by a quarterback. Purdue has given up 100-yard rushing games each of the past two weeks, including 118 yards by Illinois quarterback Nate Scheelhaase.

Denard could also become the first quarterback in FBS history to record 1,500 yards rushing and 2,000 yards passing in a season. To do so, he would need 151 rushing yards and 186 passing yards. Both records are certainly within reach on Saturday as Michigan’s offense should cruise to another win.

Michigan 48 – Purdue 30

After losses to Michigan State and Iowa in weeks six and seven, I assumed those were simply because those two teams were much better than Michigan this season, but Michigan was catching up. After last week’s dismantling at the hands of a very injured and average Penn State squad, it’s apparent that this Michigan team isn’t quite as far a long as most had thought.

The offense has done its part, ranking 19th in points per game (35.4), 4th in total offense (518.4 yards), and 8th in rushing yards (275.5). But the defense has been the Achilles heel, surrendering 30 points per game.

Michigan vs. Illinois
	Sat. Nov. 6 12 p.m. ET ESPN
5-3	Record	5-3
UConn 30-10 Notre Dame 28-24 UMass 42-37 Bowling Green 65-21 Indiana 42-35	Wins	S. Illinois 35-3 N. Illinois 28-22 Penn State 33-13 Indiana 43-13 Purdue 44-10
#17 Mich. State 17-34 #15 Iowa 28-38 Penn State 31-41	Losses	Missouri 13-23 #2 Ohio State 13-24 #13 Mich. State 6-26
35.4	Scoring Offense	26.9
275.5	Rushing YPG	194.4
242.9	Passing YPG	143.1
518.4	Total Offense	337.5
30.0	Scoring Defense	16.8
149.8	Rush Defense YPG	117.5
290.5	Pass Defense YPG	183.9
440.2	Total Defense YPG	301.4
9	Takeaways	15
12	Giveaways	15
12/3	Sacks By/Allowed	15/16
47/101 (47%)	Third-down Conv.	39/103 (38%)
3/9	Field Goals	15/17
36.8	Net Punt Avg.	40.2

It’s not going to get any better this week as Michigan lost sophomore cornerback J.T. Floyd to a season-ending ankle injury. The already young and thin safety is now left with toddlers. True freshman Courtney Avery will most likely fill Floyd’s starting spot, meaning at least three true freshmen will be in the starting lineup against Illinois.

We can talk about excuses or who’s fault it is that Michigan is in this predicament all we want, but the fact of the matter is, in the Big Ten or any other conference, starting multiple true freshman is not a recipe for success. Yet, that’s what has to be done in order for Michigan to win at least another game to become bowl eligible and perhaps save head coach Rich Rodriguez’s job.

Time is running out for Rodriguez to achieve bowl eligibility, with only four games to play, and only the next two seem even remotely winnable at this point: Illinois and Purdue.

Illinois is an interesting comparison to this year’s Michigan squad. Last year, the Illini went 3-9 and many in Champagne were calling for head coach Ron Zook’s head. A year later, Zook has the nation’s 15th-ranked defense leading a 5-3 record.

In the first week of the season, when Illinois lost to Missouri 23-13, I figured this would be another typical Illini team. But no one knew at that time that Mizzou would become a top-ten team, which in hindsight, makes that loss look a little better.

Illinois’ defense makes up for an average offense, which averages 337.5 yards and 26.9 points per game. The offense is lead by freshman quarterback Nate Scheelhaase and junior running back Mikel Leshoure. Both are dynamic players that could tear up Michigan’s defense.

LeShoure is the conference’s fourth best rusher, with 97.5 yards per game and six touchdowns. He had 100-plus yard rushing games in four of the first five games, but had just 23 yards on 15 carries last week against Purdue.

Prior to last week, I would have said that Scheelhaase didn’t scare me, given that he ranks last in the Big Ten in passing with just 137.4 yards per game. But if Penn State walk-on Matt McGloin can shred Michigan’s defense, then Scheelhaase could be in for the game of his life.

Michigan will have its hands full tomorrow and will have to play flawlessly on offense if it wants to gain that ever-elusive sixth win.

In its five wins, Michigan’s offense averaged 565 yards and 41.4 points per game, turning the ball over just five times. But in three losses, the offense has averaged slightly less, as 440.7 yards and 25.3 points, turning the ball over seven times.

Much of that can be attributed to starting the Big Ten schedule, but the turnovers and mistakes that the Wolverines did such a good job avoiding in the first five games have plagued the offense as of late.

Michigan turned the ball over three times against Michigan State and four times against Iowa. For a team with such a porous defense, the offense can’t afford to squander opportunities, and that’s especially important this week against a top-20 defense.

Before the season, I penned this as one of Michigan’s seven wins, but when I compare the two teams now, I’m not nearly as confident. Last week’s beatdown in Happy Valley shook any confidence I had about this team.

Illinois played Ohio State tough a few weeks ago, then thumped Penn State 33-13, but then got hammered by Michigan State 26-6. In that game, Illinois led 6-3 at halftime before Michigan State woke up and outscored the Illini 23-0 in the second half.

Prediction:

Leshoure will run for 100 yards and Scheelhaase will be effective enough to put some points up. Illinois did a pretty good job of stopping Ohio State’s Terrelle Pryor a few weeks ago (he did run for over 100 yards, but threw for just 76) and will hold Denard Robinson in check. He’ll still get his yards but I wouldn’t expect the type of game we came to expect from Shoelace in the non-conference portion of the schedule. Michigan won’t be able to find the end zone enough to keep up with the Illini.

Illinois 33 – Michigan 24

From Their View….

Hail to the Orange better be careful what it wishes for, The Daily Illini features some quotes from Scheelhaase that indicate he thinks Michigan actually has a defense, The St. Louis Post-Dispatch tells what to watch for tomorrow, The Sports Bank on Chicago Now predicts an Illini blowout and says Stephen Schilling is following in the footsteps of Jake Long and Obi Ezeh “will get some looks” (WTF?).

For the past two and a half seasons, I have tried to remain calm and serve as a voice of reason for the current state of Michigan football. Week after week I have advocated patience for Rich Rodriguez and his coaching staff. I’ve been one of a diminishing populous all season, but the performance on Saturday has pushed my propensity to move on from mild to warm.

It wasn’t simply that Michigan lost to Penn State, but the matter in which Michigan was manhandled by a team starting a walk-on quarterback and missing almost half its starting lineup that pushed me closer to the “Jim Harbaugh, come on down!” side.

For the first half of the game, Michigan looked as if it spent the bye week shopping for Halloween costumes rather than preparing for Penn State. Two weeks of practice midway through the season usually allows a team to correct some flaws and spend some extra time gameplanning for the next opponent.

But Michigan came out with a terrible play call on the third play of the game (more on that in a minute) and proceeded to let Penn State double its season points average.

Rodriguez vowed after the loss to Iowa two weeks ago that he would spend some more time with the defense and last week he said there would be some personnel changes. Replacing linebacker Obi Ezeh with Kenny Demens worked well against Iowa, but when you’re replacing starters with freshmen, it’s not always going to work out for the better. This week, he moved safety Cam Gordon to linebacker and filled his spot with true freshman Ray Vinopal.

Vinopal made some mistakes, but the defense as a whole turned in its worst performance of the season, making Penn State’s version of Nick Sheridan look like Tom Brady. Quarterback Matt McGloin, a former walk-on, in his first career start, looked comfortable and confident all game long, picking the Michigan defense apart both short and deep. When he needed to convert a third down, he put the ball on the money with a five-yard out. When he threw deep, his receivers were open enough to make it just a long hand-off.

Michigan stopped the Penn State offense once on five drives in the first half as the Nittany Lions rolled up a 28-10 lead and only once more in the second half, right after Rodriguez stormed into the defensive huddle and laid into the defense.

The offense didn’t look sharp early on either, and it was the third play of the game that began the frustration for Michigan fans. On third-and-two from the Michigan 36, Rodriguez ran Vincent Smith up the middle out of the i-formation. He was stopped for no gain and Michigan punted, allowing Penn State to set the tone of the game. It was the sixth time this season that Smith has gotten the carry on third-and-short and Michigan has converted just three of them.

For the rest of the game, Robinson took the carries on third-and-short and converted all three, two of which he ran for eight yards or more.

Why Rodriguez and offensive coordinator Calvin Magee continue to run the 5’6″ 180-pound Smith up the middle on short-yardage plays instead of Robinson or freshman beefcake Stephen Hopkins is anybody’s guess, but for a team that needs its offense to play perfectly in order to win, that’s certainly not a play call the coaches should keep making.

On third-and-short situations this season, Robinson has carried the ball 16 times and converted 13 of them, averaging 8.3 yards per carry. When he lines up in the shotgun with a head start and blockers in front of him, it’s almost impossible to stop him from picking up the first down even when the defense knows it’s coming.

I really like Smith on screens and lined up in the slot, but banging him up the middle on short yardage plays is ridiculous. On six carries on third-and-three or less, he’s averaging two-thirds of a yard per carry, having converted only half of them. He’s much more suited for the open field than up the middle.

Still, the offense scored 31 points on Saturday and it would have been good enough to win if it had a halfway decent defense. So why is the defense so bad, and whose fault is it?

Misopogan’s latest diary on MGoBlog sums it up perfectly with this statement: “The point is this: we already thought the defense would be bad in May. Since then, almost half of the possible defensive contributors either transferred, got injured, or proved themselves mostly useless. We aren’t just the bottom of the Big Ten; without Martin, we’re probably in the middle of the MAC.”

Defensive tackle Mike Martin, the only NFL-caliber player on the defense right now, didn’t make it through the first series after re-injuring his ankle. Somewhere between seven and ten true or redshirt freshmen saw the field on defense. Any other season, most of them would be redshirting right now, but due to the aforementioned transfers (Justin Turner, Anthony LaLota, Vladimir Emilien),  injuries (Troy Woolfolk, Brandon Herron, Mike Williams), players kicked off the team (Boubacar Cissoko), and recruits who never made it to campus (Demar Dorsey, Davion Rogers, Antonio Kinard), Rodriguez wasn’t afforded that luxury. Freshmen can succeed in college football, but only when they’re surrounded by talented upperclassmen. When they’re all you have, you’re not going to win ball games consistently. That’s not an excuse, that’s reality.

Some of that was of his own making, recruiting guys with academic problems, not putting much focus on the defense for two-plus years, etc. However, as MGoBlog pointed out last week, Lloyd Carr is at least as much to blame as Rodriguez for the current woes due to the lack of junior and senior talent currently on the roster.

After Notre Dame’s loss to Tulsa on Saturday night, my father-in-law (a Notre Dame fan) said, “Our starting quarterback was out, our starting running back was out, our starting tight end was out, a starting safety was out, and a starting nose guard was out. But you know what, at the end of the day, those are all just excuses.”

It's getting close, but it's not time to fire Rich Rodriguez yet (photo by the Detroit Free Press)

That’s certainly true in our case as well. There are a lot of excuses to be made about this team right now, but I still don’t think it’s time to give up on Rodriguez yet. While the abundance of freshman causes blown coverage, missed tackles, and loads of frustration now, it can only help for the future as these players gain experience. Look at how much Denard Robinson progressed from last season to this. If the defense was this bad with Woodley, Branch, Harris, Crable, Burgess, Warren, and Hall, then it would be time to dump Rodriguez. But no one is going to confuse the current defensive roster with the squad of 2006.

And for that reason, we have to give Rodriguez one more season. If he’s still failing to compete with the Big Ten big boys, then call up Harbaugh. He’ll still be around 14 months from now.

Eighteen of Saturday’s starters return next season and the secondary will likely get its best player, Troy Woolfolk, back for his senior season. One of the four not returning is James Rogers, a receiver-turned-corner who wouldn’t even be playing if not for Woolfolk’s injury in fall camp.

Notre Dame, Nebraska, and Ohio State are all at home next season and Minnesota and Northwestern rotate back onto the schedule in place of Wisconsin and Penn State.

You can’t get rid of Rodriguez without seeing what he can do with his players now in the system for a couple of years and a favorable schedule. That’s why I’m not all the way to the Fire DickRod hehe! side of the thermometer.

The offense has gone from 20.2 to 29.5 to 35.4 points per game since Rodriguez took over and is right on track with 10 returning starters next season and one of the top high school running backs in the nation, Demetrius Hart, on his way to Ann Arbor. Now, Rodriguez needs to turn his focus 100 percent to the defense and get it to where it needs to be. If that means firing defensive coordinator Greg Robinson, I think I’m okay with that at this point, even though he hasn’t had much to work with thus far. If Rodriguez can lure West Virginia defensive coordinator Jeff Casteel to Ann Arbor, then I’d be all for it.

Under Rodriguez and Casteel, West Virginia’s defense went from 62nd in total and 109th in pass defense in 2006 to seventh in total and 14th in pass defense in 2007. Currently, Michigan ranks 106th overall and 117th in pass defense. It’s not going to make the jump that WVU made in 2007, but it will definitely be better than it is this season solely because of the experience this year’s players are gaining. If it’s even good enough to be a middle-of-the-road defense next year, that team will win a lot of games. That 2006 West Virginia team went  11-2 with such a poor defense thanks to an experienced offense with second-year starters Pat White and Steve Slaton. Denard Robinson will be a second-year starter next season and the offense will be even better than it is right now.

For all of those reasons, I still believe that this Rodriguez thing can work out. The patience is wearing thin, but it’s not broken yet.

The bye week came at just the right time for Michigan after losses to Michigan State and Iowa and allowing quarterback Denard Robinson to rest an ailing shoulder that caused him to miss extensive time in both of those losses.

Many in the media tried to play up a quarterback competition between Robinson and last year’s starter, Tate Forcier, but head coach Rich Rodriguez insists that Robinson is the starter. Indeed, if he is healthy enough, he could be in for the kind of monster game that made him a household name through the first five weeks of the season.

Michigan vs. Penn State
	Sat. Oct. 30 8 p.m. ET ESPN
5-2	Record	4-3
UConn 30-10 Notre Dame 28-24 UMass 42-37 Bowling Green 65-21 Indiana 42-35	Wins	Youngstown St. 44-14 Kent State 24-0 Temple 22-13 Minnesota 33-21
#17 Mich. State 17-34 #15 Iowa 28-38	Losses	#1 Alabama 3-24 #17 Iowa 3-24 Illinois 13-33
36.0	Scoring Offense	20.3
281.6	Rushing YPG	128.7
250.4	Passing YPG	208.7
532.0	Total Offense	337.4
28.4	Scoring Defense	18.4
144.7	Rush Defense YPG	143.9
296.3	Pass Defense YPG	187.9
441.0	Total Defense YPG	331.7
9	Takeaways	11
12	Giveaways	12
10/3	Sacks By/Allowed	9/5
41/88 (47%)	Third-down Conv.	35/95 (37%)
2/8	Field Goals	14/17
37.7	Net Punt Avg.	39

Penn State is flat out hurting. At 4-3, Penn State has given up 437 and 433 total yards the last two weeks to Illinois and Minnesota, respectively. Neither of those has an offense near Michigan’s, with Minnesota’s ranked 59th nationally and Illinois’ 88th.

While the defense hasn’t fared well, the offense has been the main disappointment for the Nittany Lions this season, ranking 82nd nationally in total offense and 99th in points per game with 20.3. Only twice this season has Penn State scored more than 30 points, in the opener against Youngstown State (44) and last week against Minnesota (33). Alabama and Iowa each held Penn State to just three points.

What has gone so wrong? Youth and inexperience is part of the problem. As Michigan found out last year, starting a true freshman at quarterback isn’t exactly a recipe for success, but Joe Paterno chose to do that with Robert Bolden.

Yet the biggest problem is that Penn State has been plagued with injuries. Five starters have been lost for the season (tackle Lou Eliades, tight end Garry Gilliam, safety Nick Sukay, receiver Curtis Drake, and tight end Andrew Szczerba), and several others, including defensive ends Jack Crawford and Eric Latimore, will miss this week’s game. Bolden is also questionable and it appears that sophomore Matt McGloin will be making his first career start tomorrow at quarterback.

If any game is ripe for the picking it’s this one, and it’s an important one. It would make Michigan bowl eligible for the first time in three years, assuring the Wolverines of avoiding a third-straight losing season, and would end a two-game losing streak, both to Penn State, and this season.

Traditionally, Rodriguez-coached teams have fared well after the bye week during his career, including in 2008 when Michigan beat then-No. 9 Wisconsin 27-25.

While Penn State players are dropping like flies, Michigan’s bye week allowed some key players to get healthy. In addition to Robinson, Michigan should get running back Michael Shaw back this week, as well as center David Molk and tackle Mike Martin.

Michigan’s offense has struggled to find a running game the past two weeks, partly because of the stout defenses of Michigan State and Iowa, but also partly because Shaw, Michigan’s starter through the first five games, has been banged up. Vincent Smith is reliable, but not the complete back that Shaw is.

Rodriguez has hinted that freshman Stephen Hopkins may see some more playing time this week. Hopkins has looked good in limited action so far this season and is the biggest back on Michigan’s roster. Supposedly, ball security in practice has kept him from seeing the field more often thus far, but he has shown enough the past few weeks to earn more time.

Getting Molk and Martin back is perhaps even more important because each is the lynchpin of his side of the ball. When Molk went down last week during the opening drive, backup center Rocko Khoury did a decent job filling in, but had a couple bad snaps. Michigan’s offense is clearly better with Molk in the middle.

Martin also had an ankle injury that happened during the Michigan State game and was reinjured against Iowa, causing him to miss much of the game. He’s the motor of the defense and with a unit that ranks 104th in total defense, his presence is obviously needed.

So how can Michigan win tomorrow? The easy answer is to score a lot of points. Penn State’s defense gives up a lot of yards, but is 22nd in the nation in points against, averaging just 18.4. However, Illinois scored 33 in a blowout win two weeks ago and Minnesota managed 21 last week.

Denard Robinson says he's 100 percent recovered from injuries suffered against Michigan State and Iowa (AP photo)

Michigan’s offense ranks 17th in the nation in scoring at 36 points per game and second in total offense. In losses the last two games, the offense was still able to move the ball, but turnovers were the difference. Avoiding those same mistakes will be the biggest factor in whether Michigan wins or loses tomorrow.

Robinson should be able to rack up yards just as Illinois running back Mikel Leshoure did a couple weeks ago, rushing for 119 yards, and Minnesota running back DeLeon Eskridge did last week, rushing for 111. Another 200-yard rushing and 200-yard passing game is within reason, but 150/150 is more likely.

Defensively, Michigan will probably get pounded on the ground, given that McGloin will be making his first career start at quarterback. However, when he replaced the injured Bolden last week, he connected on 6-of-13 passes for 78 yards, two touchdowns and an interception, and took some shots downfield. Penn State will likely try to get the running game going and then test Michigan’s young and shaky secondary.

A lot of talk has been floating around this week about freshman Ray Vinopal getting some playing time, if not starting, at safety. A similar experiment paid off last game when Rodriguez replaced senior linebacker Obi Ezeh with Kenny Demens and he provided solid run support and was at least a small upgrade from Ezeh. Can Rodrgiguez strike gold a second time? Vinopal has really only played in one game this season, against Bowling Green, but he made the most of that time, intercepting a pass in the fourth quarter.

The freshman from Youngstown, Ohio is smart and it’s certainly worth a try against a team with such a stagnant offense like Penn State. If Vinopal doesn’t work out, nothing is really lost, since Michigan’s secondary has been horrific anyway. But if he does prove a better option than Cameron Gordon at the position, Michigan will have seen two mid-season upgrades on defense heading into the final four games of the season.

Regardless, I can see Michigan forcing two or three turnovers this week from the inexperienced McGloin.

If Michigan isn’t able to put the ball in the end zone offensively and it comes down to special teams, Penn State has the clear advantage, having succeeded on 14 of 17 field goals this season, while Michigan’s kicking woes are well-known. You can be rest-assured that Rodriguez won’t try a field goal from anywhere longer than probably 30 yards, and even that is doubtful.

Fortunately, I don’t see it being that close. Michigan’s offense will be much more efficient than the past two weeks with a healthy Robinson, Shaw, and Molk. Penn State will score some points, but won’t be able to keep up with Michigan.

Prediction:

Michigan 42 – Penn State 27

From their view…

PennLive.com declares that Denard doesn’t deserve Heisman hype because he was once in a three-way tie for the starting spot with Ryan Threet and Tate Forcier (really?); The Daily Collegian talks about a record that will probably be set tomorrow; Nittany Lines predicts a Michigan win and hopes Penn State can keep Denard to just one long touchdown run; The Philadelphia Enquirer also doesn’t know how to spell the names of our quarterbacks.