photo Michigan-Display-Ad-728x90-Die-Hard-Fans-only_zpskcnarkrk.jpg  photo MampGB header 2015 v6_zpsdluogxnr.jpg

Posts Tagged ‘Spartans’

#2 Michigan 32 – Michigan State 23: Redemption in East Lansing

Sunday, October 30th, 2016


peppers-vs-msu(mgoblue.com)

Michigan was favored by 24 points entering East Lansing on Saturday, but after suffering through a horrid eight year stretch in which it won just once against its bitter in-state rival, a win by any amount in Spartan Stadium was sure to feel good. The Wolverines spotted Michigan State seven points on Saturday, took a 20-point lead, and held on to win by nine, improving to 8-0 for the first time since 2006.

With Michigan State entering the game just 5-2 overall and 0-4 in the Big Ten, many Michigan fans wanted Jim Harbaugh to keep his foot on the gas and not let up. And while a blowout would have been nice for the sake of bragging to family and coworkers, a win — any win — was just fine.

Any nervousness on Michigan’s part prior to the game was only exacerbated after Michigan State marched right down the field on its opening drive with a 12-play, seven-minute, 75-yard touchdown drive that saw 11 rushes and just one pass. Michigan’s defense, which ranked fourth nationally against the rush, got carved up by L.J. Scott.

um-msu_small-final
Final Stats
Michigan MSU
Score 32 23
Record 8-0, 5-0 2-6, 0-5
Total Yards 436 401
Net Rushing Yards 192 217
Net Passing Yards 244 184
First Downs 24 23
Turnovers 1 1
Penalties-Yards 5-62 7-57
Punts-Yards 3-122 1-49
Time of Possession 30:16 29:44
Third Down Conversions 5-of-12 4-of-11
Fourth Down Conversions 1-of-1 1-of-4
Sacks By-Yards 2-10 0-0
Field Goals 3-for-3 1-for-2
PATs 3-for-3 2-for-2
Red Zone Scores-Chances 6-of-6 3-of-6
Red Zone Scores-TDs 3-of-6 3-of-6
Full Box Score

But Michigan answered with five straight scoring drives. Jabrill Peppers got the scoring started with a 3-yard touchdown run to tie the game at seven. After the defense stopped a MSU fourth down, Michigan went 62 yards in five plays, lead by a 33-yard Eddie McDoom run and capped off by a 1-yard De’Veon Smith touchdown run.

Michigan State got back on the board with a 52-yard field goal, but Michigan answered with a 23-yarder from Kenny Allen.

The defense forced a three-and-out, and the offense put together a 10-play, 48-yard touchdown drive that saw Michigan convert two third downs. Smith picked up his second touchdown of the day, this time from five yards out.

On the first play of Michigan State’s next possession, quarterback Tyler O’Connor tried to take a shot downfield, but Jourdan Lewis picked it off, giving Michigan a chance to widen the lead before halftime. With just 27 seconds remaining, Wilton Speight completed passes of 14 yards and 20 yards, both to Amara Darboh to reach the MSU 20. A pass interference penalty put the ball at the five, but with time for only one more play, Harbaugh settled for a 23-yard Allen field goal and Michigan took a 27-10 lead into the locker room.

The second half did not go as well as Michigan seemed to go into cruise control, scoring just three offensive points on five possessions. Neither team scored a point in the third quarter, but Michigan widened the lead to 30-10 with a 45-yard Allen field goal to start the fourth.

On the next possession, Michigan went three-and-out and had to punt for the first time in the game. Michigan State capitalized with a 59-yard drive that featured back to back explosive plays — a 34-yard pass from backup quarterback Brian Lewerke to R.J. Shelton and a 20-yard touchdown pass from Lewerke to Monty Madaris.

Michigan State took over again with just 37 seconds remaining and moved the ball right down the field with a 35-yard pass to Scott, a 15-yard personal foul on Chris Wormley, a 10-yard pass to Trishton Jackson, and a 10-yard pass interference on Jourdan Lewis. O’Connor capped the drive with a 5-yard touchdown pass to freshman receiver Donnie Corley with one second remaining on the clock. At this point, a win was impossible for the Spartans, but Mark Dantonio elected to go for a two-point conversion to make the loss look a little better. The decision backfired as O’Connor’s option pitch was fumbled and Peppers scooped it up and raced 87 yards for a Michigan two-point conversion.

Michigan’s offense gained 436 yards, 192 on the ground and 244 through the air. Speight completed 16-of-25 passes for 244 yards and an interception. All three of Michigan’s touchdowns came on the ground. McDoom lead the team in rushing with 53 yards on two carries, while Karan Higdon had 44 on 10 carries, Smith had 38 on 11, and Peppers had 24 on five. Darboh had a career-high 165 yards on eight receptions.

Defensively, Michigan allowed 401 yards including 217 rushing yards and an average of 5.2 yards per carry. Scott became the first back to rush for 100 yards on Michigan’s defense this season, finishing with 139 yards and a touchdown on 22 carries. MSU’s three quarterbacks combined to complete just 13-of-28 passes for 184 yards, two touchdowns, and a pick.

At 8-0 overall and 5-0 in the Big Ten, Michigan remains in the driver’s seat in the conference. The Wolverines host Maryland (5-3, 2-3) next Saturday.

Game Ball – Offense

Amara Darboh (8 receptions for 165 yards)
Darboh had the best game of his career on Saturday, channeling his inner Braylon Edwards with catch after catch against the Spartans’ secondary. Although he didn’t find the end zone, seven of his eight receptions resulted in first downs and two of them were third down conversions. Like Jehu Chesson did with Jake Rudock last season, Darboh seems to be hitting stride with Speight in the second half of the season, giving Michigan both a deep threat and a reliable pass catcher to move the chains.

Previous
Week 1 — Chris Evans (8 carries, 112 yards, 2 touchdowns)
Week 2 — Wilton Speight (25-of-37 for 312 yards, 4 touchdowns)
Week 3 — Jake Butt (7 receptions for 87 yards)
Week 4 — Grant Newsome, Ben Braden, Mason Cole, Kyle Kalis, Erik Magnuson (326 rush yards, 0 sacks allowed)
Week 5 — Amara Darboh (6 receptions for 87 yards, 1 touchdown)
Week 6 — Khalid Hill (2 carries for 2 yards and 2 touchdowns, 2 receptions for 19 yards and 1 touchdown)
Week 7 — Wilton Speight (16-of-23 for 253 yards, 2 touchdowns)

Game Ball – Defense

Jabrill Peppers (7 tackles, 2 tackles for loss, 1 sack, 1 two-point conversion fumble recovery for touchdown)
Michigan’s Heisman trophy candidate didn’t have the most tackles — Delano Hill lead the team with 11 — or the most tackles for loss – Mike McCray lead with 2.5 — but made the big plays that counted. When Michigan State still had a shot to pull within one score late in the game, Peppers sacked Lewerke for a loss of eight on 4th-and-5. Although the Spartans scored on their next possession, it was too little too late by that time, and Peppers made the final statement of the game by returning their fumbled two-point conversion to add two points to Michigan’s winning margin. Ultimately, it didn’t change the outcome of the game — aside from covering the over on the betting line — but it gave him a highlight for his Heisman campaign.

Previous
Week 1 — Mike McCray (9 tackles, 3.5 tackles for loss, 2 sacks, 1 forced fumble)
Week 2 — Rashan Gary (6 tackles, 2.5 tackles for loss, 0.5 sacks)
Week 3 — Jabrill Peppers (9 tackles, 3.5 TFL, 1 sack, 2 kick ret. for 81 yards, 4 punt ret. for 99 yards, 1 TD)
Week 4 — Maurice Hurst (6 tackles, 3 solo, 3 tackles for loss, 1 sack)
Week 5 — Channing Stribling (2 tackles, 2 interceptions, 2 pass breakups)
Week 6 — Taco Charlton (2 tackles, 2 tackles for loss, 2 sacks)
Week 7 — Mike McCray (3 tackles, 0.5 tackles for loss, 1 fumble recovery, 2 quarterback hurries)

M&GB staff predictions: Michigan State

Saturday, October 29th, 2016


StaffPicks_banner20152

Michigan fans have been waiting for this game since last year’s game slipped through Michigan’s fingers in the cruelest of ways. The Wolverines look for redemption against their bitter in-state rival Michigan State this afternoon.

Joe won our weekly predictions fifth the fourth time in seven games last week with his prediction of Michigan 48 – Illinois 7. Here are this week’s picks:

Justin
Staff Predictions
Michigan MSU
Justin 33 13
Derick 52 7
Sam 42 0
Josh 42 13
Joe 34 10
M&GB Average 41 9

While Michigan is favored by more than three touchdowns I fully expect Michigan State to give Michigan a game early on. The Spartans may be just 2-5, but they’ll step on the field winners of seven of the last eight over Michigan. But this game is almost always won on the ground and Michigan’s defense is just too good for the Spartans to run on. Dantonio will try to get Scott going and will take some shots deep trying to catch the secondary by surprise. It may work once, but not with enough consistency to outscore Michigan.

Offensively, Michigan will pound the run and pick on the Spartan safeties through the air. I expect that we’ll see a little more utilization of Jabrill Peppers and that we’ll see the evolution of some of the plays that have been set up over the past couple weeks. Will he pass for a touchdown this week?

Michigan State keeps it close for much of the first half before Michigan’s talent, experience, and depth allows them to pull away in the second. It ends up a solid win, but doesn’t cover the spread. And we’ll be just fine with that.

Michigan 33 – Michigan State 13

Derick

If this isn’t the year, I don’t know when the year will come.

Michigan has a prime opportunity to crush Michigan State and end a losing streak in East Lansing that is nearing a decade since Mark Dantonio took over at MSU. The Wolverines are better at every single position except field goal kicker, and shouldn’t have any trouble rolling over their in-state rival.

The Spartan offense has a revolving door at quarterback, a terrible problem to have going into a game against the country’s best secondary. If any of the Michigan State quarterbacks is able to generate a passing game, I’ll be shocked.

On offense, Michigan State will probably force Wilton Speight to win the game. Luckily, he’s coming off his best performance at Michigan and should be able to do enough to lead Michigan to a win.

Jim Harbaugh would love to pile on in this game, and all signs point to him doing so. Yes, rivalry games can be strange, but I can’t come up with a legitimate football reason that MSU can keep this game close. I’ll go ahead and say it: I think this game will be hugely one-sided, with Michigan winning big.

Michigan 52 – Michigan State 7

Sam (1)

As each week comes and goes, I come to the same dilemma with every prediction: how in the world is Team X going to score against Michigan? Generic Team X this week just so happens to be Michigan State, a team that has dominated the Wolverines in recent years past but has fallen to unfathomable lows this season while Michigan continues to dominate competition of all types.

So again this week I must ask myself how I envision the opponent scoring. Certainly Mark Dantonio has been placing all his eggs in this week’s basket since the Spartans’ first loss many weeks ago and will have plenty of tricks to throw at the wall in the hopes that something sticks. But you’d have to have been in a coma the past two months to think that is going to make a difference this Saturday. Michigan’s defensive line should slaughter any combination of offensive linemen Michigan State can put together while the visiting offensive line should continue to pave new roadways and running lanes in East Lansing.

Four different Wolverines run for scores while Michigan records another defensive touchdown this weekend in a romp.

Michigan 42 – Illinois 0

Josh (1)

Rivalry games are always tricky things to predict, especially on the road. However, this Michigan State team isn’t exactly the team we’ve come to expect under Mark Dantonio. Rest assured the Spartans will bring their best game this weekend. Unfortunately for them so will Michigan.

Looking at the match-ups across the board it doesn’t look good for Sparty. Michigan holds the edge in every area, and by a large margin. Where that will hurt MSU the most is their offensive line versus the Michigan defensive line of destruction. Seriously, it’s not fair how good Michigan’s front is. The MSU offensive line has been pushed around and bullied by the likes of Maryland, Northwestern, and Wisconsin. Michigan is better than all of those teams. Add in a (likely) freshman starting quarterback and we should expect to see the Mo Hurst belly rub — a lot.

Michigan didn’t register many tackles for loss last weekend, but I think that changes in a big way this Saturday. I tend to agree with MGoBlog’s assumption that the only way for Sparty to have any success is to just attempt deep bombs to Donnie Corley and R.J. Shelton. Unfortunately for them, Jourdan Lewis and Channing Stribling are two of the best corners in the country and it’s highly unlikely they’ll get beat much, if at all. Remember, Michigan only surrenders 4.86 big plays per game and barely gives up more than one through the air.

When Michigan has the ball it could be a different story. Malik McDowell is still there and he’s still a monster. But injuries have taken their toll for MSU and they’re not playing with a full deck on defense. From what I’ve seen this has all the makings of a tight end coming out party for Michigan. As in multiple tight ends should have three-plus catches, and we might even see that awesome five tight end train set a few times, and not near the goal line.

Michigan is the far better team on paper but MSU will absolutely give everything they have. A win against Michigan and they’ll have essentially salvaged their season and probably get them bowl eligible down the road. A loss all but eliminates them from bowl contention. Luckily for Michigan, Jim Harbaugh prepares every game like it’s a championship game. If you think that Jim Harbaugh and his players have forgotten how that game ended last year, or how the Spartan players celebrated in The Big House you are sorely mistaken. They won’t talk about it, they will just show up and be about it, to paraphrase Tim Drevno. Michigan rolls over Sparty and brings Paul Bunyan home to his rightful place in Schembechler Hall.

Michigan 42 – Michigan State 13

Joe (5)

I’m torn on this one. I want to believe Michigan rolls over Sparty with relative ease but I know better. Dantonio will have his guys ready to go with the last chance to salvage their miserable season. Rivalry games a different animal and are always unpredictable. I still think Michigan wins this one but not as comfortably as most think.

Michigan 34 – Michigan State 10

New arrival: Michigan State game poster

Friday, October 28th, 2016


gameposter-2016-msu

A man once paraphrased an old proverb, saying pride comes before the fall. That man is currently fighting for bowl eligibility while the new sheriff in town has his sights set on restoring order.

Download the high-res version here, good up to 18×24.

Previous: Hawaii, UCF, Colorado, Penn State, Rutgers, Illinois

Our weekly game posters are designed by Christian Elden, a designer and illustrator who happens to be a Michigan fan. He lives in northwest Ohio where he runs his own design firm. He has illustrated a picture book for Warner Press and has been featured in Focus on the Family’s Clubhouse Jr. Magazine. Visit hispersonal site to view some of his other works.

#2 Michigan vs Michigan State game preview

Friday, October 28th, 2016


um-msu-game-preview-header(Isaiah Hole, 247 Sports)

Nine years ago Michigan traveled to East Lansing ranked 15th nationally to take on a 5-4 Michigan State squad. Little did anyone know at the time that Michigan was about to take a severe downturn while the Spartans were about to see their fortune change for the better.

Michigan State hadn’t won the Big Ten since 1990 and had finished third or better only three times during that span, averaging just 5.6 wins per season. They had beaten Michigan just five times and just nine times in the previous 39 seasons.

um-msu_small
Quick Facts
Spartan Stadium – 12p.m. ET – ESPN
MSU Head Coach: Mark Dantonio (10th season)
Coaching Record: 107-55 (89-38 at MSU)
Co-Offensive Coordinators: Jim Bollman (4th season)
Dave Warner (4th season)
Co-Defensive Coordinators: Mike Tressel (1st season)
Harlon Barnett (1st season)
Last Season: 12-2 (7-1 Big Ten)
Last Meeting: MSU 27-UM 23 (2015)
All-Time Series: Michigan 68-35-5
Record in East Lansing: Michigan 19-14-2
Jim Harbaugh vs MSU 0-1
Last Michigan win: 2012 (12-10)
Last MSU win: 2015 (27-23)
Current Streak: Michigan State 3
Michigan State Schedule to date
Opponent Result
Furman W 28-13
at #18 Notre Dame W 36-28
#11 Wisconsin L 6-30
at Indiana L 21-24
BYU L 14-31
Northwestern L 40-54
at Maryland L 17-28

On that early November Saturday in East Lansing, the Spartans held a 10-point lead in the fourth quarter before Michigan rallied back for a 28-24 win behind backup quarterback Ryan Mallett and senior running back Mike Hart.

Every fan on both sides of the rivalry knows what happened next when Hart, in a post-game interview, likened Michigan State to a little brother that the older brother — Michigan — picks on. Nearly everyone on both sides are sick of hearing about it, but it coincided with a major shift in the rivalry.

Lloyd Carr retired after the season and Michigan struggled through seven seasons of Rich Rodriguez and Brady Hoke, dropping six of those contests to their in-state rival by an average of 16.3 points. Michigan went 46-42 during that span, finishing no better than second in their division. Michigan State, meanwhile, went 75-31, winning the Big Ten three times, winning two BCS bowls, and appearing in the College Football Playoff semifinal. The contrast could hardly be more distinct.

But Jim Harbaugh stepped into the fray and proceeded to win 17 of his first 20 games and Michigan catapulted up the rankings. Although the Wolverines lost Harbaugh’s first meeting with the Spartans a year ago, it’s eerily reminiscent of the coach’s mentor’s beginning. After all, Bo Schembechler took over a Michigan squad that had gone 2-9-1 against Michigan State in the previous 12 seasons. He won 17 of his first 20 games — one of those losses being his first matchup with MSU — but beat the Spartans the second time around. And the third. And the fourth. And the fifth. And so on. He won eight straight and Michigan won 30 of the next 38 until 2008.

If Michigan beats Michigan State tomorrow, Harbaugh will surpass Schembechler’s win pace through his first 21 games. Bo lost game 21 — the 1970 Ohio State game.

Michigan enters East Lansing the heavy favorite, ranked No. 2 nationally with a 7-0 record and only five games standing between them and the Big Ten championship game. Michigan State, meanwhile, needs four wins in its final five games to reach .500 and earn bowl eligibility. In many ways the circle is nearly closed, but given the last nine years, it’s easy to understand why Michigan fans are in a ‘wait and see’ approach to Saturday.

Can Michigan stay in the championship hunt? Or will Michigan State continue their recent dominance with an all-time upset? Let’s take a look at the matchups.

When Michigan State has the ball

Michigan State’s offense has plummeted into the bottom half of the Big Ten this season. It ranks 12th in the conference and 106th nationally in scoring (23.1 points per game), 10th and 86th in rushing (155.3 yards per game), fifth and 61st in passing (235 yards per game), and eighth and 84th in total offense (390.3 yards per game).

The loss of quarterback Connor Cook to the NFL following last season has been one of the major reasons for the offensive decline as Mark Dantonio has been unable to find a quality replacement. Senior Tyler O’Connor started the season and completed 61.1 percent of his passes for 1,257 yards, 11 touchdowns, and six interceptions. But he has seen his playing time diminish the past three weeks in favor of redshirt freshman Brian Lewerke, who has started the last two. Lewerke hasn’t fared any better, completing just 53.2 percent of his passes for 281 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. Dantonio hasn’t named a starter for tomorrow, saying it will be a game-time decision. Junior Damion Terry is also in the mix. He went 6-of-10 for 63 yards and a pick against BYU and is the Spartans’ best dual-threat option.

The running game is lead by sophomore L.J. Scott, who averages 66.3 yards per game. He rushed for 128 yards including a 48-yard score against Maryland last weekend and will be key to Michigan State’s chances of winning tomorrow. He averaged 4.4 yards per carry against Wisconsin’s stout rush defense and if he can give MSU yards on first and second down, it will make things much easier for whichever quarterback starts. Junior Gerald Holmes is the second leading rusher with 272 yards and leads the team with four rushing touchdowns. He rushed 13 times for 100 yards and two touchdowns against Notre Dame in Week 2, but they have the nation’s 81st-ranked rush defense. Unlike Michigan’s deep backfield, MSU’s basically just Scott and Holmes.

The best player on the Spartan offense is senior R.J. Shelton, who ranks third in the Big Ten with 77.3 receiving yards per game and fourth with five receptions per game. He has caught at least seven passes in four of the six games in which he recorded a stat, with two 100-yard games. He caught seven passes for 190 yards and two touchdowns against Northwestern two weeks ago. He’s also dangerous on jet sweeps, where he has averaged over 10 yards per carry on six carries. Freshman Donnie Corley and senior Monty Maderis have combined for 38 receptions for 534 yards, but have found the end zone just twice (both Corley). Tight end Josiah Price is a reliable pass catcher with 18 receptions for 202 yards and three scores.

Aside from not having a consistent quarterback, the offensive line is a major source of the problems in East Lansing. They allow 2.3 sacks per game and can’t consistently open holes for Scott and Holmes. Michigan’s defensive line, which has fueled the defense that leads the Big Ten and ranks fourth nationally with 25 sacks, is poised for a big game.

When Michigan has the ball

During Michigan State’s surge over the past several seasons the defense has been the catalyst. Not so this season. The Spartans rank 12th in the Big Ten and 80th nationally in scoring defense (29.7 points allowed per game), ninth and 66th against the run (162.2 yards per game), 13th and 64th against the pass (225.4 yards per game), and 10th in total defense (388 yards per game).

The defense is lead by junior tackle/strong side end Malik McDowell, who has five tackles for loss and 1.5 sacks. After him, however, the defensive line is much less fearsome. Fifth-year senior tackle Kevin Williams has 20 tackles but none for loss. Senior nose tackle Brandon Clemons has started all seven games and has held up well. Junior Demetrius Cooper is the end opposite McDowell and has three tackles for loss and a half a sack.

The linebackers are the strength of the MSU defense, most notably junior SAM Chris Frey, who is tied for the team lead with 57 tackles and leads the team with six quarterback hurries. Senior MIKE Riley Bullough is third on the team with four tackles for loss, but is also prone to personal fouls, which got him ejected from last week’s game. Sophomore STAR linebacker Andrew Dowell has a nice stat line with 45 tackles, two for loss, one sack, an interception, two passes defended, and a pair of quarterback hurries.

The secondary is decent but gave up over 200 yards to Maryland’s 112th-ranked passing offense last week. Junior safety Montae Nicholson is tied with Frey for the team lead with 57 tackles. The other safety is senior Demetrius Cox, who is prone to giving up big plays. The corners, sophomore Vayante Copeland and senior Darian Hicks, are passable. They both have an interception and Hicks leads the team with six pass breakups and seven passes defended. Freshman nickel corner Justin Layne also has a pick.

The other third

Senior kicker Michael Geiger has made 5-of-8 (62.5 percent) field goal attempts this season with a long of 48. His misses have come from 40, 43, and 49 yards, one of them being blocked. He’s a fourth-year starter who went 15-of-16 (93.8 percent) his freshman year but then just 26-of-41 (63.4 percent) the next two seasons combined. Sophomore punter Jake Hartbarger ranks seventh in the Big Ten with an average of 40.7 yards per punt. He has downed 14 of 32 inside the 20 with just one touchback.

Shelton is the main kick returner averaging 22.4 yards per return, while sophomore receiver Brandon Sowards averages 4.8 yards per punt return.

Prediction

While Michigan is favored by more than three touchdowns I fully expect Michigan State to give Michigan a game early on. The Spartans may be just 2-5, but they’ll step on the field winners of seven of the last eight over Michigan. But this game is almost always won on the ground and Michigan’s defense is just too good for the Spartans to run on. Dantonio will try to get Scott going and will take some shots deep trying to catch the secondary by surprise. It may work once, but not with enough consistency to outscore Michigan.

Offensively, Michigan will pound the run and pick on the Spartan safeties through the air. I expect that we’ll see a little more utilization of Jabrill Peppers and that we’ll see the evolution of some of the plays that have been set up over the past couple weeks. Will he pass for a touchdown this week?

Michigan State keeps it close for much of the first half before Michigan’s talent, experience, and depth allows them to pull away in the second. It ends up a solid win, but doesn’t cover the spread. And we’ll be just fine with that.

Michigan 33 – Michigan State 13

First Look: Michigan State

Monday, October 24th, 2016


mark-dantonio(AP photo)

Michigan picked up right where it left off before its bye week, storming out of the gates with touchdowns on its first four possessions of the game on Saturday and cruising to a 41-8 win over Illinois. Now comes in-state rival Michigan State, which has held the upper hand over the past eight years. While most Michigan players are avoiding posting any bulletin board material, at least one is terming this week Redemption Week.

Can Michigan win in East Lansing for the first time since 2007? Or will Michigan State stun the 2nd-ranked Wolverines Let’s take a look at how the two teams compare so far this season.

Michigan State & Michigan statistical comparison
MSU | Michigan Rank Defense Rank
Points Per Game 23.1 | 48.7 106 3
29.7 10.0 80 1
Rushing Yards 1,087 1,800 1,138 672
Rush Avg. Per Game 155.3 257.1 86 11
162.6 96.0 66 4
Avg. Per Rush 4.2 | 5.5
4.1 2.9
Passing Yards 1,645 1581 1,578 777
Pass Avg. Per Game 235.0 225.9 61 76 225.4 111.0 64 1
Total Offense 2,732 3,381 2,716 1,449
Total Off Avg. Per Game 390.3 483.0 84 28 388.0 207.0 54 1
Kick Return Average 20.8 17.8 69 116 25.6 20.6 117 | 62
Punt Return Average 7.6 18.6 67 3 5.8 10.0 50 100
Avg. Time of Possession 29:59 34:18 59 11 30:01 | 25:42
3rd Down Conversion Pct 37% | 48% 88 | 17
46% | 13.0% 109 1
Sacks Allowed-Yards/By-Yards 16-86 | 11-83
78 30
7-44 | 25-174 119 4
Touchdowns Scored 21 46
27 | 9
Field Goals-Attempts 5-8 | 6-11
6-9 | 2-5
Red Zone Scores (15-18) 83%|(36-40) 90% 65 | 28
(24-26) 92%|(4-6) 67% 112 3
Red Zone Touchdowns (13-18) 72%|(30-40) 75% (19-26) 73%|(3-6) 50%
Off. S&P+/Def. S&P+ 27.4 37.1 83 19 29.7 0.8 74 1

Whether by coincidence or cause, Michigan’s ascension to the No. 2 ranking nationally has coincided with Michigan State’s rapid fall from grace. The Spartans rose to prominence the past eight years largely due to the void Michigan left when it stumbled through the Rich Rodriguez and Brady Hoke eras. But while Jim Harbaugh has his Wolverines cruising like a well oiled machine through the first eight weeks of the 2016 season, Mark Dantonio’s squad is fighting for bowl eligibility.

Michigan State won its first two games of the season over Furman (28-13) and then-No. 18 Notre Dame (36-28), but both MSU and Notre Dame have plummeted since then. As the Irish have lost three of their next four to make that MSU win look far less impressive, the Spartans have done them one better by losing five straight.

During that five-game losing streak, Michigan State has averaged just 19.6 points per game and allowed 33.4. With the exception of a 31-14 loss to BYU three weeks ago, the offense hasn’t been terribly bad. They’ve piled up more than 400 total yards in three of the last four, but that just hasn’t translated to enough points.

The running game ranks 86th nationally, averaging just 155.3 yards per game, or 102 yards fewer than Michigan. They managed 260 yards on Notre Dame, but the Irish rank 79th in run defense. They also put up 270 rushing yards on Maryland this past Saturday, but the Terps’ rush defense ranks 84th. The two teams they’ve played that feature solid rush defenses — Wisconsin and Northwestern — held MSU to a combined 126 rushing yards on 2.5 yards per carry.

The passing game is a little better, ranking 61st nationally with an average of 235 yards per game, about nine yards more than Michigan. That average is a little inflated by a 424-yard performance against Northwestern’s 110th-ranked pass defense. They managed just 156 yards on Maryland’s 13th-ranked pass defense last week, completing just 11-of-24 passes. They’ve also thrown eight interceptions.

When one thinks of Michigan State over the past few years, a vicious defense is what comes to mind. Not so much this year, however. The Spartans rank 54th nationally in total defense and 80th in scoring defense. Four of seven opponents have topped 400 total yards and BYU was just two yards away from doing so.

MSU’s rush defense and pass defense are roughly equal, ranking 66th and 64th nationally, respectively. They held Furman to 87 rushing yards and Notre Dame to 57, but during the five-game losing streak, the Spartans have allowed 198.8 rushing yards per game. BYU (260), Northwestern (209), and Maryland (247) have eclipsed 200 yards on the ground in each of the last three weeks, averaging 5.0 yards per carry.

Three of seven opponents have passed for at least 281 yards against the Spartan defense led by Notre Dame’s 344. Even Maryland, which ranks 112th nationally in passing offense, threw for 200 yards and two touchdowns on 21-of-28 passing.

The Michigan State defense also struggles with getting to the quarterback, which they have done just seven times this season. That’s worst in the Big Ten by a whopping five sacks. They also have trouble stopping opponents on third down, allowing 46 percent conversions, which is the same as Illinois entering last week’s game. Michigan converted 7-of-14.

Michigan is favored to win by about three touchdowns, but Michigan State will be playing for nothing more than pride and a chance to inch closer to bowl eligibility. If there’s one thing Michigan fans have learned the past few years it’s not to take MSU lightly, and you can bet Harbaugh will be preaching the same thing inside Schembechler Hall. You can also bet he’ll have some fresh plays reserved for this occasion. Michigan hasn’t played down to its competition yet this season and — barring torrential weather — don’t expect that to happen this Saturday.

#10 Michigan State 89 – Michigan 73: Michigan has no answer for streaking Spartans

Sunday, February 7th, 2016


UM vs MSU(MGoBlue.com)

For the second time in a week Michigan’s best performance came from its bench in garbage time against the opponent’s bench. For the second straight game said bench made the final score look much closer than the game actually played for the first 37 minutes.

The only difference between Michigan’s 89-73 loss to No. 10 Michigan State on Saturday and their 80-67 loss to No. 22 Indiana on Tuesday was that there was no early lead for the Wolverines. In this one, Michigan was overmatched from the start, holding only a 5-3 lead, and when Eron Harris hit a three at the 18:42 mark, Michigan never lead again.

Four Factors
Michigan Michigan State
52 eFG% 78
18 OReb% 33
13 TO% 27
28 FTR 32

The Spartans shot 64 percent from the field and 63.6 percent (14-of-22) from three-point range for the game while holding Michigan to just 44.8 percent overall and 28.6 percent from downtown. MSU made 10-of-14 three-point attempts in the first half including their first five and eight of their first 10. Bryn Forbes was routinely left wide open and made Michigan pay by scoring 23 first half points on 7-of-9 three-point shooting himself.

Zak Irvin led the way for Michigan with 19 points on 8-of-16 shooting and 2-of-6 three-point shooting. Aubrey Dawkins (14 points) and Derrick Walton (11) were the only other Wolverines in double figures. No Michigan player had more than three rebounds and the Wolverines managed just 20 boards for the game. Some of that has to do with the fact that Michigan State wasn’t missing shots. Forbes led the Spartans with 29 points, while Denzel Valentine added 21 points, nine rebounds, and eight assists.

Michigan has now lost two straight and must turn its attention to simply qualifying for the NCAA Tournament. It’s becoming increasingly unlikely that Caris LeVert will see the court again and without him it’s becoming increasingly clear that Michigan is a team that can beat the teams it should beat, but can hardly compete with great teams. At 17-7 overall and 7-4 in the Big Ten, Michigan may need to go at least 5-2 the rest of the regular season and win at least one game in the Big Ten Tournament to feel comfortable heading into Selection Sunday. However, in looking at the remaining schedule, only Minnesota and Northwestern look to be sure-bet wins for the Wolverines. Purdue, Iowa, and at Maryland are likely losses, while at Ohio State and Wisconsin are toss-ups.

Michigan looks to bounce back from a rough week on Wednesday against a Minnesota team still looking for its first conference win. The Gophers are 6-17 overall and 0-11 in the Big Ten. A Michigan loss in Minneapolis will likely mean an NIT berth next month.

Final Game Stats
# Name FG-FGA 3FG-3FGA FT-FTA OR DR TOT PF TP A TO BLK S MIN
34 Mark Donnal* 2-5 0-2 0-0 1 2 3 3 4 0 1 0 1 17
10 Derrick Walton* 3-10 3-7 2-2 0 2 2 4 11 2 1 0 3 35
21 Zak Irvin* 8-16 2-6 1-1 0 3 3 1 19 1 2 0 0 32
22 Duncan Robinson* 1-5 0-3 0-0 0 0 0 1 2 0 1 0 0 25
12 Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman* 2-5 0-3 2-2 1 1 2 2 6 4 0 0 1 32
03 Kameron Chatman 2-3 1-1 0-0 0 1 1 0 5 0 0 0 1 25
05 D.J. Wilson 2-3 0-1 1-1 0 2 2 3 5 0 1 0 1 14
11 Andrew Dakich 1-1 0-0 1-1 0 0 0 2 3 0 0 0 2 5
13 Moritz Wagner 0-2 0-1 0-1 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 4
24 Aubrey Dawkins 3-5 2-4 6-8 0 1 1 0 14 3 1 0 1 17
32 Ricky Doyle 2-3 0-0 0-0 3 0 3 1 4 0 0 0 0 14
Totals 26-58 8-28 13-16 6 14 20 18 73 10 9 0 11 200
Michigan State 32-50 14-22 11-16 7 28 35 20 89 18 19 1 4
200
Full Stats

Michigan hoops preview: #10 Michigan State

Saturday, February 6th, 2016


UM-MSU
Michigan vs Michigan State
Saturday, Feb. 6 | Ann Arbor, Mich. | 2 p.m. EST | CBS
Line: Michigan +3.5
Offense
76.9 Points/gm 79.0
(627-1,296) 48.4 Field Goal % 47.8 (651-1,362)
(240-588) 40.8 3-pt FG % 41.4 (195-471)
(275-372) 73.9 Free Throw % 72.4 (320-442)
12.0 FT Made/gm 13.9
32.7 Reb/gm 43.1
15.7 Assists/gm 10.4
9.8 Turnovers/gm 12.0
Defense
65.0 Points/gm 62.4
(551-1,287) 42.8 Field Goal % 36.7 (492-1,341)
(161-481) 33.5 3-pt FG % 28.2 (120-426)
32.2 Opp. Reb/gm 30.4
5.5 Steals/gm 4.3
2.4 Blocks/gm 5.4
Individual Leaders
Caris LeVert (17.6), Duncan Robinson (12.5) Points/gm Denzel Valentine (18.5), Bryn Forbes (13.6)
Derick Walton (5.8), Caris LeVert (5.4) Reb/gm Matt Costello (8.3), Denzel Valentine (7.8)

Michigan’s Big Ten title hopes suffered a big setback on Tuesday night when Indiana came into the Crisler Center and humbled the Wolverines with a 80-67 rout. The final score doesn’t reflect just how far apart the two teams were. Indiana shot the lights out and put themselves in great position to play for the conference title.

Michigan gets a chance to bounce back this afternoon when in-state rival Michigan State comes to town. The Spartans are a game behind Michigan in the Big Ten standings at 6-4, but since a three-game losing streak they have rattled off three straight wins. One of those was a 74-65 win over No. 7 Maryland and the last two were by a combined 65 points over Northwestern and Rutgers.

Michigan State is led by senior Denzel Valentine (6-foot-5, 220), who averages 18.5 points, 7.8 rebounds, and 6.6 assists per game. He’s pretty much a lock for Big Ten Player of the Year unless he falls apart the rest of the season. He ranks second in the Big Ten in scoring, fifth in rebounding, and first in assists. His 3.2 three-point field goals made per game are tied with Duncan Robinson for tops in the conference, though he has made 16 fewer. He has two triple-doubles and four more double-doubles this season with a high of 32 points against Boise State on Nov. 27. In his last four games he has made 19-of-34 three-point attempts including six in two of those.

Senior guard Bryn Forbes (6-foot-3, 190) ranks second on the team in scoring with 13.6 points per game and leads the team with a 48.2 percent three-point average. He has been a hot and cold scorer in Big Ten play. In the Spartans’ four losses, he averaged just five points per game on 6-of-27 (22.2%) shooting from the field and 3-of-18 (16.7%) three-point shooting. In the six wins, he has averaged 18.2 points on 38-of-73 (52.0%) shooting from the field and 26-of-44 (59.1%) three-point shooting. Michigan can let Valentine get his points, but must focus on holding Forbes in check.

Redshirt junior guard Eron Harris (6-foot-3, 185) is the third Spartan averaging double figures at 10.0 points per game. He’s a capable three-point shooter at 39.7 percent, though he attempts half as many Valentine and Forbes. Harris has raised his scoring during Big Ten play, averaging 11.9 points per contest after averaging 8.5 in the non-conference.

Senior forward Matt Costello (6-foot-9, 245) is the brute down low, averaging 9.7 points and 8.3 rebounds per game. The rebounding ranks second in the Big Ten behind only Purdue’s Caleb Swanigan and he leads the Big Ten with 2.7 offensive rebounds per game. Like Harris, Costello has raised his play in the conference season, averaging 12.3 points and 10.8 rebounds since Dec. 29 with six double-doubles in 10 games.

Freshman forward Deyonta Davis (6-foot-10, 240) has started the last five games in place of sophomore guard Lourawls Nairn Jr (5-foot-10, 175), who has been sidelined with plantar fasciitis. Davis hasn’t been a big scorer as of late — 16 points combined in his last three games — but does average eight points per game on the seasons. He ranks third in the Big Ten with two blocked shots per game and second with a 63.6 percent field goal rate. Nairn, meanwhile, started all 18 games before his injury, averaging 4.1 points and 4.5 assists per contest.

Junior forward Gavin Schilling (6-foot-9, 250) is another big body inside, averaging 4.3 points and 3.5 boards per outing. He missed the first 11 games of the season due to turf toe and has averaged 12.4 minutes per game since his return. His most important asset for Tom Izzo is his interior defense where he has both size and quickness to defend other bigs.

Freshman guard Matt McQuaid (6-foot-5, 190), junior guard Alvin Ellis (6-foot-4, 205), and redshirt freshman forward Kenny Goins (6-foot-6, 225) are the other regular contributors off the bench. McQuaid is a three-point shooter, averaging 42.2 percent, but has attempted only 45, which would rank sixth on Michigan’s team. Ellis isn’t a great shooter at 38.6 percent from the field and 35 percent from three-point range. He averages 2.6 points. Goins provides 9.7 minutes per game, but averages just 1.7 points and 2.8 rebounds.

As a team, Michigan State has the Big Ten’s best defense, allowing just 62.5 points per game and holding opponents to 36.7 percent shooting from the field and 27.8 percent from three-point range. Michigan struggled with Indiana’s defensive pressure on Tuesday and the Hoosiers rank in the middle of the pack in the Big Ten defensively. If Michigan is forcing the same bad shots they did against IU, it will be a long day. If they move the ball and get off good shots they can compete with the Spartans, and if they can avoid the long drought that doomed them against IU and keep the home crowd into the game, Michigan can come away with a win. But I think Michigan State has too much size and will hand Michigan its second straight defeat.

#7 Michigan State 27 – #12 Michigan 23: Last second score stuns Wolverines

Saturday, October 17th, 2015


MSU TD(Rick Osentoski, USA Today Sports)

With ESPN College GameDay on campus and a top-12 matchup between hated instate rivals Michigan and Michigan State, college football was fun again in Ann Arbor on Saturday. Until it wasn’t.

After not trailing for 59 minutes and 50 seconds, Michigan needed only to execute a successful punt to take back the Paul Bunyan trophy and down the Spartans for just the second time in eight years. Instead, ecstasy turned to heartbreak when punter Blake O’Neill fumbled the snap, tried to pick it up and kick it, and the ball bounced right into the hands of Jalen Watts-Jackson who raced 38 yards to the end zone. Technically, Michigan State hadn’t held a lead for the entire 60 minutes as the game-winning score came after the clock hit zero, but the result was a stunning one indeed.

UM-MSU-small-FINAL
Final Stats
Michigan Michigan St.
Score 23 27
Record 5-2 (2-1) 7-0 (3-0)
Total Yards 230 386
Net Rushing Yards 62 58
Net Passing Yards 168 328
First Downs 10 20
Turnovers 1 0
Penalties-Yards 8-70 5-44
Punts-Yards 7-312 5-186
Time of Possession 29:49 30:11
Third Down Conversions 4-of-15 3-of-12
Fourth Down Conversions 0-of-4 0-of-1
Sacks By-Yards 3-29 3-10
Field Goals 3-for-3 0-for-0
PATs 2-for-2 3-for-3
Red Zone Scores-Chances 5-of-5 2-of-2
Full Box Score

Michigan State’s bench raced to the North end zone to pile on Watts-Jackson in celebration, while the once festive Michigan Stadium crowd of 111,740 stood speechless. Jim Harbaugh described it as “very unfortunate circumstances.”

It took a while for either team to get going, and while Michigan State gained 92 yards on 22 plays in the first quarter, it was Michigan that struck first with a 2-yard Sione Houma touchdown run two minutes into the second quarter.

Michigan State got the break it needed two possessions later when quarterback Connor Cook was stopped three yards short of the first down line on 2nd-and-9. Senior Michigan linebacker Joe Bolden was thrown down on top of Cook and flagged for targeting, not only giving Michigan State 15 yards and a first down, but also kicking Bolden out of the game. Harbaugh referred to the penalty and ejection as “hard to fathom.”

Two plays later, Michigan State ended Michigan’s shutout streak with a 11-yard L.J. Scott touchdown run.

Michigan came right back with a 49-yard kickoff return by Jabrill Peppers to set up the offense with great field position. Jake Rudock connected with Jehu Chesson for 23 yards, but the offense stalled and Kenny Allen kicked a 38-yard field goal. Michigan took a 10-7 lead into the half.

Neither team managed anything on their first possessions of the second half, but Michigan again got great starting field position, this time because the Spartans failed to convert a fake punt. On Michigan’s ensuing drive, Jabrill Peppers took a pop-pass 28 yards to the Michigan State 3-yard line and Houma punched it in three plays later to give Michigan a 17-7 lead.

Michigan State answered right back with a 5-play, 75-yard drive that included a 13-yard completion to Aaron Burbridge, a 27 yards pass to R.J. Sheldon, and a 30-yard touchdown pass to Macgarrett Kings.

Back to back Kenny Allen field goals put Michigan ahead by nine, but once again Michigan State refused to go away. On the very first play of the ensuing possession, Cook found fullback Trevor Pendleton wide open for 74 yards to the Michigan one. Scott carried it in on the next play to bring Michigan State within two at 23-21.

Trying to hold on to its lead, Michigan’s offense went three-and-out on two straight possessions, but the defense came up big with a fourth down stop. Michigan took possession with 1:47 remaining, needing only one first down to seal the win. But three straight De’Veon Smith runs gained just eight yards and 10 seconds were all that separated Michigan from a win before the botched punt occurred.

Despite not leading until the very end, Michigan State outgained Michigan 386-230, and for just the fourth time in the last 46 meetings, the team that rushed for more yards didn’t win. Michigan finished with 62 rushing yards to Michigan State’s 58. Rudock completed 15 of 25 passes for 168 yards. Smith led the way on the ground with 46 yards on 19 carries, while Houma added 30 yards and two touchdowns on three carries. Chesson caught four passes for 58 yards and Amara Darboh caught three for 52.

For Michigan State, Cook completed 18 of 39 passes for 328 yards and one touchdown. Gerald Holmes rushed eight times for 33 yards, while Burbridge led all receivers with 132 yards on nine receptions.

At 5-2 overall and 2-1 in the Big Ten, Michigan gets a week off before traveling to Minneapolis to face a Gophers team that has lost two of its last three and also has a Week 8 bye. Michigan State remains undefeated with Indiana coming to town next Saturday.

Game Ball – Offense

Kenny Allen (3-for-3 field goals, 2-2 PATs)
While no one on Michigan’s offense had a great game on Saturday, punter Kenny Allen was his usual consistent self, calmly nailing three field goals. The first came with 5:34 remaining in the first half, from 38 yards out, after Michigan State had tied the game. It gave Michigan a 10-7 halftime lead. The second came from 21 yards out with 2:06 remaining in the third quarter, and he followed it up with another 38-yarder on Michigan’s next possession to give Michigan a 23-14 lead with 9:25 left in the game. A position that has been a question mark the past few years has become consistent this season with Allen earning a scholarship and converting 10 of 12 attempts through seven games. He is perfect inside 40 yards.

Previous:
Week 1 – Jake Butt (8 rec for 93 yards and 1 TD)
Week 2 – De’Veon Smith (23 carries for 126 yards, 3 TDs)
Week 3 – Ty Isaac (8 carries for 114 yards, 1 TD)
Week 4 — De’Veon Smith (16 carries for 125 yards and 1 TD)
Week 5 — Drake Johnson (13 carries for 68 yards, 1 TD, 1 rec for 31 yards, 1 TD)
Week 6 — Mason Cole, Ben Braden, Graham Glasgow, Kyle Kalis, Erik Magnuson

Game Ball – Defense

Willie Henry (5 tackles, 3 TFL, 2 sacks, 1 PBU)
Michigan didn’t get a lot of pressure on Michigan State quarterback Connor Cook, but when it did it was usually Willie Henry providing it. The redshirt junior recorded two of Michigan’s three sacks, knocked down a pass, and stopped a running back in the backfield. He also provided pressure off the edge on 3rd-and-19 in the closing minutes, forcing Cook to get rid of the ball sooner than he wanted. Henry now leads the team with nine tackles for loss and six sacks through seven games.

Previous:
Week 1 – Chris Wormley (5 tackles, 3 TFL)
Week 2 – Chris Wormley (6 tackles, 3 TFL, 1 sack)
Week 3 – Jourdan Lewis (3 tackles, 4 PBU)
Week 4 — Ryan Glasgow (3 tackles, 2 TFL)
Week 5 — Desmond Morgan (9 tackles, 1 INT, 2 PBU)
Week 6 — Jourdan Lewis (4 tackles, 1 TFL, 1 INT, 1 touchdown, 1 PBU)

Final Individual Stats
Passing Comp-Att Yds Avg. TD INT Long Sack
Connor Cook 18-39 328 8.4 1 0 74 3
Jake Rudock 15-25 168 6.7 0 0 32 3
Rushing Car. Yards Avg. TD Long
De’Veon Smith 19 46 2.4 0 8
Gerald Holmes 8 33 4.1 0 7
Sione Houma 3 30 10.0 2 27
L.J. Scott 8 16 2.0 2 11
Delton Williams 8 15 1.9 0 4
Aaron Burbridge (WR) 1 9 9.0 0 9
Tyler O’Conner 1 7 7.0 0 7
Ty Isaac 2 5 2.5 0 4
Karan Higdon 2 3 1.5 0 2
R.J. Shelton (WR) 1 3 3.0 0 3
Damion Terry 1 2 2.0 0 2
Joe Kerridge 2 2 1.0 0 1
Jehu Chesson (WR) 1 1 1.0 0 1
Jake Rudock (QB) 3 -10 -3.3 0 0
Blake O’Neill (P) 1 -15 -15 0 -15
Connor Cook (QB) 4 -23 -5.8 0 6
Receiving Rec Yds Avg. TD Long
Aaron Burbridge 9 132 14.7 0 28
Trevon Pendleton (FB) 1 74
74.0 0 74
R.J. Shelton 4 58 14.5 0 27
Jehu Chesson 4 58 14.5 0 23
Macgarrett Kings Jr. 3 57 19.0 1 30
Amara Darboh 3 52 17.3 0 32
Jabrill Peppers 2 35 17.5 0 28
A.J. Williams 2 20 10.0 0 21
Josiah Price 1 7 7.0 0 7
Jake Butt 1 4 4.0 0 4
Karan Higdon (RB) 1 3 3.0 0 3
De’Veon Smith (RB) 1 -1 -1.0 0 -1
Jake Rudock (QB) 1 -3 -3.0 0 -3
Kicking FG Pct Long XP Pts
Kenny Allen 3/3 100.0 38 2/2 11
Michael Geiger 0/0 N/A 0 3/3 3
Punting No Yds Avg TB In 20 Long
Blake O’Neill 7 312 44.6 0 3 80
Tyler O’Conner 4 153 38.2 1 0 36
Jake Hartbarger 1 33 33.0 0 0 33
Kick Returns No Yds Avg Long TD
Jabrill Peppers 3 81 27.0 49 0
R.J. Shelton 2 50 25.0 29 0
Jehu Chesson 1 25 25.0 25 0
Punt Returns No Yds Avg Long TD
Jabrill Peppers 3 48 16.0 34 0
R.J. Shleton 2 4 2.0 3 0

M&GB staff predictions: Michigan State

Friday, October 16th, 2015


StaffPicks_banner2015

Dantonio

After losing six of seven to Michigan State, Michigan made a huge splash when it hired Jim Harbaugh last December. That, coupled with MSU’s loss of defensive coordinator Pat Narduzzi, has flipped the script as the two teams meet at 3:30pm tomorrow. It is Michigan that features the top defense in the nation and the better running game — the two biggest keys to the annual showdown for the Paul Bunyan Trophy. Can Michigan turn that into a victory? Here are our picks:

Justin:

If Michigan’s passing game featured Chad Henne, Braylon Edwards, and Jason Avant going up against this Michigan State secondary it would be easy to pick Michigan to win big. But Jake Rudock has yet to show he can throw deep, and it won’t matter if Jehu Chesson and Amara Darboh get behind the safeties if Rudock can’t hit them. Yet history tells us that this rivalry is won on the ground. In the last 45 meetings, the team that rushed for more yards has won 42 of them and that’s another advantage Michigan has in this game.

Staff Predictions
Michigan Michigan St.
Justin 31 13
Derick 24 21
Sam 24 7
Josh 28 24
Joe 24 14
M&GB Average 26 16

De’Veon Smith and Drake Johnson can take advantage of Michigan State’s aggressive defensive line, allowing Michigan to sustain drives and keeping the Spartans from loading the box. That should give Rudock time to hit the short and intermediate routes that he has done a pretty good job of so far.

On the other side of the ball, Michigan State is essentially a three-man team: Cook, Smith, and Burbridge. Fortunately, Michigan’s defense matches up really well. Jourdan Lewis has become one of the best corners in the nation and will lock down Burbridge. Michigan’s front seven hasn’t allowed anyone to run on it all season, ranking third nationally against the run. That means Shelton and Kings are going to have to come up big against Jabrill Peppers, Jeremy Clark, and Channing Stribling if he’s healthy enough to return from injury. That’s a big if to rely on.

Michigan’s defense will control the line of scrimmage against a banged up MSU offensive line, and although the shutout streak will end, Michigan State won’t be able to put up enough points to keep up. Michigan’s offense will be effective enough to grind out yards, move the chains, and test the shaky secondary. Michigan wins going away and puts Ohio State on notice.

Michigan 31 – Michigan State 13

Derick:

This is the biggest matchup between Michigan and Michigan State since 1999, when both teams were ranked in the top 11. Saturday’s game holds implications for the state, the conference and maybe even the country. The winner will, in some form, enter the College Football Playoff conversation while the loser will probably play for second place in the East.

The biggest matchups will come in the trenches. Michigan’s offensive line has given Jake Rudock more than enough time on pass plays and opened holes for the entire running back unit in the rushing attack. But Shilique Calhoun and Malik McDowell lead a defensive that already has 21 sacks on the season and hope to disrupt that rhythm. Whoever wins that battle will likely come away with a win.

Michigan appears to have the more well-rounded team on the field, as Jim Harbaugh tighened up the special teams and offense after a tough loss to Utah. MSU has also surrendered two kick returns of over 70 yards this season, so Jehu Chesson could play a huge role in the return game, which establishes field position in this type of defensive battle. Field position will be everything.

Rudock also has to take care of the ball and put the defense in good position to succeed. If Connor Cook has a short field, he’ll find a way to put points on the board. This is the first real test for the defense and Rudock has to do his part in keeping the scoreless streak alive.

I find myself giving Michigan a strong edge in special teams and the secondary, but Michigan State has a stronger defensive line and passing game. The Spartans have played in so many big games under Cook, but does Michigan have the experience to win a close game on a stage of this magnitude.

My instincts tell me that Michigan State might find a way to win this game, but nothing we’ve seen in the field through six games supports that idea. I’ll go with Michigan, at home, in front of 111,000 fans.

Michigan 24 – Michigan State 21

Sam:

When this season began, most Michigan fans had already penciled in losses in the Wolverines’ two biggest home games of the year. My, how things change. Michigan State has dominated this series of late, but their control over the series is in serious jeopardy with the way Jim Harbaugh has his team clicking on all cylinders. And with a severely banged up offensive line – perhaps their biggest strength heading into the season – the Spartans have to be shaking in their boots at the prospect of Ryan Glasgow, Willie Henry, Taco Charlton, and company living in their backfield all evening. Connor Cook is a great quarterback – but I don’t think he’s better than this collective Michigan defense. De’Veon Smith should be healthier and ready to roll while Jake Rudock’s safe but efficient throws will rip apart a porous Michigan State secondary; pair that with another dominant defensive performance, and I’ll take Michigan again.

Michigan 24 – Michigan State 7

Josh:

Who would have thought this game would be a battle of top 15 teams and Michigan would not only have a chance to win but actually be favored? Not me, until last week’s performance. Complete domination by the defense, it really speaks to the staff we now have in place and their ability to teach and prepare these kids week in, week out. But this week offers a new test, something this defense has not seen yet; an NFL-caliber quarterback/receiver combo in Cook and Burbridge. As Harbaugh noted, Cook is 29-3 as a starter (let that sink in for a moment) so he will not be rattled by mere pressure and he won’t waver in the pocket like Tanner Mangum, Caleb Rowe, and Clayton Thorson did. He is a veteran quarterback on a veteran team and while they may not have lived up to the hype as of late they will be prepared and bring their A++ game to Ann Arbor (don’t look at this game and think ‘escapes against Purdue and Rutgers’, think along the lines of ‘Michigan vs OSU in 2013’). Make no mistake about it (injury riddled or not) this is the best team Michigan has faced thus far, and it’s not close.

On defense: I have full confidence that our defensive line will completely shut down the run on just about everyone in the Big Ten outside of maybe Ezekiel Elliot, so I expect this weekend to be no different than the past few; little to no big plays and a general stifling of the run game. However, what does worry me is Connor Cook and I think his play is the key to the game. Just hurrying him won’t get the job done, he needs to be hit and sacked, period. If Michigan can’t put him on his butt multiple times he has the ability to move the ball and put some points on the board.

Yes, Sparty’s offensive line is riddled with injury (and that is going to be their excuse if we beat them; but give them the RR/Hoke awful coaching excuse and its not valid but anyway) but this is still a team that has a mountain-sized chip on its shoulder, despite their past success against Big Brother. Dantonio will NEVER live down that Mike Hart quote, so disrespectful.

Cook and Burbridge will test this secondary, and they will put points on the board, but how many will be determined by how much pressure the defensive line gets. If they can get to Cook and hit him, not just hurry, then it makes the secondary’s job all the easier, but if they cannot then it will truly test how good these guys are. Opposite Lewis I’m not so sure Stribling/Clark can give enough to consistently get the job done. Speaking of Jourdan Lewis, while playing great so far, has not seen a receiver half as good as Aaron Burbridge and he will be tested. If he can keep Burbridge in check and not allow anything over his head or much YAC then we’ll be in good shape. This week will show us if this Michigan defense truly is elite. I’m close to buying in but not quite yet, if they win then I’m on board but until they beat a team with a better than average quarterback I just can’t say they’re elite.. elite is the 1997 defense and that will always be my measuring stick.

Takeaway: hit Cook frequently and we win, let Cook stand in ‘clean’ pockets and throw wherever he wants, we probably don’t win.

On offense: This is where I still have some concern, if you can call it that, about this team. Sparty will not let us run the ball down their throats (just based on their base defense they essentially ‘stack’ 9 in the box on all downs) so that makes Jake Rudock all the more important to this game than he has been all season. Can Rudock beat this defense with his arm? I am not so sure he can. Yes, he can hit the short/medium routes but you’re likely not going to dink and dunk this defense all afternoon and score enough points to win. Without the threat of the deep ball Michigan’s offense becomes much easier to stop. I’m not going to go so far as to say Sparty is gonna whoop on us but I am concerned that the offense is just not dynamic enough yet to beat a team of this caliber. Of course, each week we’ve seen new wrinkles in the offense and the genius that is Jim Harbaugh. If Rudock can get just enough help from the run game and plays a clean game without any turnovers then Michigan will be in good shape to win this one.
Takeaway: Don’t make Rudock win this game with his arm, if that’s the case it’s going to be very tough to beat Sparty.

Prediction: Wow, I’m not sure about this game. Sparty hasn’t looked good all year, but that doesn’t mean much to me because I know they’ll be prepared for this one. Michigan hasn’t seen a QB/WR this good all year, on the other hand Sparty hasn’t seen a defense like this all year AND their O-line is decimated with injuries… ugh, this is a tough call but in the end the difference is going to be coaching/preparation. The #HarbaughEffect is going to be in full, well, effect. Good guys win and let the (legitimate) talk of the playoff begin! Go Blue, Beat State!

Michigan 28 – Michigan State 24

Joe:

This just keeps getting better and better. The best part about watching this team week after week is the overall improvement we are seeing. Not only are they gaining confidence every time they take the field, these wolverines are dominating solid opponents. The defense is swarming to the ball and beating teams up. Once we get to the 2nd half, the opposition is playing for “PRIDE”. This week will be much different as MSU is solid across the board. I don’t care that the last few games have ended closer than everyone thinks they should. Dantonio will have them geared up and will match Michigan in the toughness department. This will be a battle in the trenches and an old school “slobber-knocker”. This could come down to which QB makes the least number of mistakes. Connor Cook is extremely dangerous and Rudock is like a Rudock. Not flashy, but not explosive. Manage this thing and let the defense do their thing. Michigan pulls this one out in the trenches.

Michigan 24 – Michigan State 14

#12 Michigan vs #7 Michigan State game preview

Friday, October 16th, 2015


Game Preview_MSU_banner

The fact that Michigan State has won six of the last seven in the series means nothing when the two hated rivals set foot on the Big House turf tomorrow afternoon. Nor does Michigan’s 68-34-5 all-time series lead. What matters is how the two teams are playing right now. Despite Michigan State’s higher ranking (7th to Michigan’s 12th in the AP Poll) it is Michigan that is favored by at least a touchdown and receiving most picks to win by college football experts.

UM-MSU-small
Quick Facts
Michigan Stadium – 3:30 p.m. EST – ESPN
MSU Head Coach: Mark Dantonio (9th season)
Coaching Record: 99-48 overall (81-31 at MSU)
Co-Offensive Coordinators: Dave Warner (3rd season)
Jim Bollman (3rd season)
Co-Defensive Coordinators: Mike Tressel (1st season)
Harlon Barnett (1st season)
Last Season: 11-2 (7-1)
Last Meeting: MSU 35 – UM11 (2014)
All-Time Series: UM leads 68-34-5
For the Paul Bunyan Trophy: UM leads 35-25-2
Record in Michigan Stadium: 34-18-3
Jim Harbaugh vs MSU: 1st meeting
Last Michigan win: 2012 (12-10)
Last MSU win: 2014 (35-11)
Current Streak: Michigan State 2

Michigan State’s record is unblemished but the way in which the Spartans arrived at 6-0 certainly isn’t. A 31-28 win over then-No. 7 Oregon in Week 2 looked great at the time. But Oregon’s meteoric fall from the rankings since then have cast doubt on just how good Mark Dantonio’s squad really is. Oregon is just 2-2 the last four weeks with wins over Georgia State and Colorado, a 62-20 throttling at the hands of Utah, and a 45-38 embarrassment on their home field by Washington State. Suddenly, Michigan State’s best win looks about as good as  spelling bee win over an illiterate person.

But it’s not so much what Michigan State’s opponents have done outside of their matchup, it’s what Michigan State hasn’t done to them: win convincingly. Of their six wins, only one — a 35-21 Week 3 win over Air Force can be considered convincing. In the season opener, Western Michigan pulled within 10 points early in the fourth quarter and racked up 383 total yard — 365 through the air — against MSU’s defense. That remains WMU quarterback Zach Terrell’s best game of the season. In Week 4, Central Michigan was within seven until the Spartans scored two touchdowns in the final 8:37 to pull away. The following week against Purdue, Michigan State jumped out to a quick 21-0 lead but then had to hold on as the Boilermakers — winless against FBS competition — nearly made it into position for a game tying field goal in the final minute. Last week, the Spartans needed a touchdown with 43 seconds left to stave off mighty Rutgers, which is just 1-3 against FBS competition.

So what does that mean? It means they are ripe for the picking; they just haven’t played anyone good enough to do it just yet. Their six opponents are a collective 13-20 (.394) and five of those 13 wins have come against FCS schools. Michigan, meanwhile, is playing as well as anyone in the country since a season opening loss to now-No. 4 Utah. Michigan’s six opponents are a combined 20-14 (.588) with four of those wins against FCS schools. And in the past five weeks Michigan has left no doubt about who the better team was on the field.

So what can we expect when Michigan and Michigan State meet tomorrow? Let’s take a look at the Spartans.

When Michigan State has the ball

In the third season with Jim Bollman and Dave Warner sharing offensive coordinator role, Michigan State ranks 72nd nationally and sixth in the Big Ten in total offense (397.3 yards per game), 67th and 9th in rushing offense (173.3 yards per game), 72nd and 6th in passing offense (224 yards per game), 24th and 2nd in passing efficiency (151.2), and 56th and 4th in scoring offense (31.3 points per game).

The past few years the Spartans have relied on their running game with Jeremy Langford rushing for about 1,500 yards in each of the past two seasons, Le’Veon Bell with 1,800 in 2012 and a hair under 1,000 in 2011, and Edwin Baker with 1,200 in 2010. But that’s not exactly the case this year as Michigan State brings the Big Ten’s ninth-best rushing offense into tomorrow’s matchup.

The load is shared between freshman L.J. Scott and redshirt freshman Madre London. Scott, who has drawn comparisons to Bell, leads the team with 418 yards and six touchdowns on 70 carries (6.0 yards per carry), while London leads with 95 carries for just 399 yards (4.2 ypc) and three touchdowns. But London suffered an injury against Rutgers last week and may not be available tomorrow. That takes away the one-two punch, leaving sophomore Gerald Holmes (21 carries for 120 yards and three touchdowns) and junior Delton Williams (two carries for six yards) to spell Scott.

While the running game hasn’t been its usual self this season, the passing game has been better. Still, it ranks just sixth in the Big Ten and 72nd nationally, but has an experienced senior quarterback in Connor Cook who doesn’t make mistakes and relies on the big play. Cook ranks fourth in the Big Ten with 1,334 passing yards (222.3 per game) and is tied with Nebraska’a Tommy Armstrong for the conference lead with 12 passing touchdowns against just two interceptions. He’s second behind Rutgers’ Chris Laviano in pass efficiency, though his 59.9 percent completion percentage ranks sixth, including behind Jake Rudock. He had a big night against Rutgers last Saturday, completing 23 of 38 for 357 yards, two touchdowns, and a pick.

Cook’s receivers are talented, but it’s clear that senior Aaron Burbridge is the top dog and the rest are the supporting cast. The 6-foot-1, 208-pound Burbridge ranks second in the Big Ten in receptions per game (5.7) and yards per game (93.3). He has caught 35 passes for 570 yards (16.3 yards per catch) and four touchdowns. No other receiver on the team has half as many receptions or yards. Junior R.J. Shelton is second with 17 receptions for 166 yards and one touchdown, while senior Macgarrett Kings has caught 14 passes for 179 yards and a score. Junior tight end Josiah Price is tied with Burbridge for the team lead with four touchdowns — one in each of the first four games — but missed the last two games with an ankle injury. He’s hopeful to return tomorrow and as the Spartans’ all-time leader in tight end touchdowns, he’ll pose a big threat to Michigan’s defense.

Three starters from 2014 returned along the MSU offensive line, but it has been banged up this season. Junior left tackle Jack Conklin, who entered the season with 26 career starts, missed the last two weeks with an injury, while fifth year senior center Jack Allen — a first team USA Today All-American in 2014 — injured his knee last week against Rutgers. The status of both is up in the air, but Michigan is preparing as if they will play. If not, that leaves numerous configurations the Spartans could use, as described by The Only Colors. Senior right tackle Donovan Clark and sophomore Brian Allen — Jack’s brother — are the two who have started every game this season. If Jack Allen can’t go, Brian will likely man the center spot. Junior Kodi Kieler is the other who will play at one of the tackle spots, depending on whether Conklin is healthy or not.

When Michigan has the ball

Michigan State’s calling card during the Dantonio era has been its defense, which has ranked among the nation’s best the past few seasons. But the architect of that defense, defensive coordinator Pat Narduzzi took the head coaching job at Pittsburgh in the offseason leaving Mike Tressel and Harlon Barnett to step up and assume the job. While both had been on the staff, they haven’t managed to maintain the level that Narduzzi left.

Six games into the season the Spartans rank 56th nationally and 9th in the Big Ten in total defense (372.2 yards allowed per game), 34th and 7th in rush defense (130.2 rushing yards allowed per game), 88th and 10th in pass defense (242 passing yards allowed per game), 81st and 10th in pass efficiency defense (132.3), and 43rd and 9th in scoring defense (21.3 points allowed per game).

The problem is not the front four which are as good as any in the Big Ten. Senior defensive end Shilique Calhoun has been a first team All-Big Ten and second team All-American each of the past two seasons. He leads the team with six tackles for loss and five sacks so far this season and is a terror as a pass rusher. The other end is senior Lawrence Thomas, who has a lot of experience and has 2.5 tackles for loss and two sacks this season. Sophomore tackle Malik McDowell is the disrupter in the middle with five tackles for loss and three sacks, while senior Joel Heath has three and one.

Junior Riley Bullough leads the team with 55 tackles as the middle linebacker. He’s effective as a blitzer with 3.5 tackles for loss and three sacks. The outside linebackers are missing senior Ed Davis, who is out for the season, and was an All-Big Ten performer in 2014. Sophomore Jon Reschke took his place and ranks second with 38 tackles, while senior Darien Harris mans the other outside spot and ranks third with 37 tackles. Both Reschke and Harris have 2.5 tackles for loss.

Beyond the front seven is where things get dicey for Michigan State’s defense. A lockdown corner was a staple of Narduzzi’s defenses, but Trae Wayne’s departure to the NFL hasn’t been able to be replaced. Senior Arjen Colquhoun and Darian Hicks are the starting corners, but Hicks suffered a head injury last week and it is still unknown whether or not he will be able to suit up tomorrow. Colquhoun has 21 tackles, 1.5 for loss, one sack, and three pass breakups, while Hicks has 13 tackles, a half of a tackle for loss, and two pass breakups. If Hicks can’t go, junior Jermaine Edmonson will get the nod. He replaced Hicks against Rutgers, but was a liability on several plays.

The secondary is also missing safety R.J. Williamson and corner Vayante Copeland, both of which suffered season ending injuries. That led to junior Demetrious Cox moving from corner to safety this season, where he has 32 tackles and leads the team with five passes defended. Sophomore Montae Nicholson has struggled big time this season and has been benched twice.

The other third

Junior kicker Michael Geiger is in his third year on field goal duty. After setting an MSU single-season record by making 15 of 16 in 2013, he made just 14 of 20 last season and is 5 of 9 so far this year. His long this season is 47 and he has had two blocked. Redshirt freshman Jake Hartbarger is the punter, averaging 42.7 yards per punt with nine of his 22 punts traveling more than 50 yards and eight downed inside the 20. Shelton handles kick return duties were he is averaging 19.5 yards per return, while Kings is the punt returner, though he has only one return all season and it went for just a yard.

Prediction

If Michigan’s passing featured Chad Henne, Braylon Edwards, and Jason Avant going up against this Michigan State secondary it would be easy to pick Michigan to win big. But Jake Rudock has yet to show he can throw deep, and it won’t matter if Jehu Chesson and Amara Darboh get behind the safeties if Rudock can’t hit them. Yet history tells us that this rivalry is won on the ground. In the last 45 meetings, the team that rushed for more yards has won 42 of them and that’s another advantage Michigan has in this game.

De’Veon Smith and Drake Johnson can take advantage of Michigan State’s aggressive defensive line, allowing Michigan to sustain drives and keeping the Spartans from loading the box. That should give Rudock time to hit the short and intermediate routes that he has done a pretty good job of so far.

On the other side of the ball, Michigan State is essentially a three-man team: Cook, Smith, and Burbridge. Fortunately, Michigan’s defense matches up really well. Jourdan Lewis has become one of the best corners in the nation and will lock down Burbridge. Michigan’s front seven hasn’t allowed anyone to run on it all season, ranking third nationally against the run. That means Shelton and Kings are going to have to come up big against Jabrill Peppers, Jeremy Clark, and Channing Stribling if he’s healthy enough to return from injury. That’s a big if to rely on.

Michigan’s defense will control the line of scrimmage against a banged up MSU offensive line, and although the shutout streak will end, Michigan State won’t be able to put up enough points to keep up. Michigan’s offense will be effective enough to grind out yards, move the chains, and test the shaky secondary. Michigan wins going away and puts Ohio State on notice.

Michigan 31 – Michigan State 13