Posts Tagged ‘Venric Mark’
Three games remain in the regular season and Michigan must win all of them to stay in the Big Ten title hunt. And just like last week, the Wolverines might have to do it without Denard Robinson. All week, Brady Hoke has been coy about Denard’s status. When asked about Denard’s status on Thursday morning, Hoke said, “We’ve got a plan in place and we’ve been running through it all week.” When asked again, he replied simply, “I don’t know. The plan is to go out and win a football game.”
Michigan Stadium - Ann Arbor, Mich.
Michigan did win a football game last week without Denard thanks to a solid performance by Devin Gardner and the receiving corps stepping up. But this week’s opponent, Northwestern, is a better team than Minnesota.
Northwestern enters at 7-2 overall and 3-2 in the Big Ten. Pat Fitzgerald’s squad holds onto extremely slim Big Ten championship hopes, needing to win out and get a lot of help, so the Wildcats will be fighting for their season. The two losses were at Penn State (39-28) and against nebraska (29-28). In that Nebraska game, Northwestern blew a 12 point lead in the fourth quarter. The seven teams Northwestern has beaten have a combined record of 25-38. So is the 7-2 record indicative of a solid squad, or is it more of a reflection of an incredibly weak schedule? Let’s take a look.
When Northwestern has the ball
Quarterback Kain Colter is a version of Denard Robinson that also plays other positions. Sophomore Trevor Siemian started a handful of games at quarterback to allow Colter to play receiver, but Colter has taken back the quarterback job. He has completed 62-of-89 passes for 517 yards, three touchdowns, and two interceptions. But he’s even more dangerous with his feet. He’s the second leading rusher on the team with 622 yards and 11 touchdowns on 114 attempts.
What’s even more dangerous is his backfield mate Venric Mark who is the Big Ten’s second leading rusher in terms of yards per game (119.7). He has eclipsed 100 yards in six of the nine games, including each of the past three. He had 182 yards against Minnesota and 162 yards on 16 carries against Iowa two weeks ago. He’s only 5’8″ but works perfectly in the zone read offense.
The receiving corps doesn’t have a standout, but has several players that contribute. Seven different players have double digit receptions and six of those have over 100 yards. The leading receiver, Tony Jones, hails from Grand Blanc, Mich. and was high school teammates with Justice Hayes and an AAU basketball teammate with Gardner. Oh, and his cousin is Thomas Rawls. He’ll be looking to impress his home state, but the Wildcat passing game isn’t one to be overly concerned with.
The offensive line is experienced, led by center Brandon Vitabile and seniors Brian Mulroe and Pat Ward on the left side. They have helped pave the way for the Big Ten’s third best rushing offense. They’ve also allowed just 12 sacks, which is second best only to Michigan’s 10. However, a lot of that is a result of the lack of a passing game.
Northwestern runs a zone read offense that aims to get the playmakers – Colter and Mark – to the edge where they can beat cornerbacks and outside linebackers in space. It’s a fast-paced offense that rarely huddles and will sometimes split Colter out wide with Siemian behind center. Similar to last season’s matchup, the Wildcat offense will probably have some success early in the game before Greg Mattison adjusts.
When Michigan has the ball
Northwestern’s defense is slightly above average at stopping the run, but last in the conference against the pass. As mentioned in yesterday’s Friend vs Foe, both Penn State and Nebraska were able to put up gaudy numbers through the air in their wins over NW. In the season opener, Syracuse’s Ryan Nassib threw for 482 yards on 66 attempts.
The strength of the defense is the linebacking unit. Middle linebacker Damien Proby leads the ‘Cats with 86 tackles. David Nwabuisi is second with 75 and Chi Chi Ariguzo ranks third with 67. They’re a major reason for the success of the run defense, but they’re don’t excel in pass coverage, which is one of the reasons Northwestern has such a weak pass defense.
The line is led by end Tyler Scott who has a Big Ten best seven sacks to go along with 8.5 tackles for loss, leading the team in both categories. The other end is Quentin Williams who has 2.5 sacks and 3.5 tackles for loss. The guys in the middle are small and don’t make a lot of impact. Brian Arnfelt has three sacks, but Sean McEvilly has one, but that’s about it.
Safety Ibraheim Campbell is the leader of the secondary. He has 67 tackles and loves to come up in run support. The Wildcats have just three interceptions and only one of them is from a defensive back, Nick VanHoose.
The nation’s 108th-ranked pass defense gives up 272.2 yards per game and it’s a good bed Michigan will have success as well.
The other third
Kicker Jeff Budzien has made 11-of-12 this season with a long of 44. His lone miss was over 50 yards, so he’s about as reliable as it gets in the Big Ten this season. He made 6-of-10 last season. Punter Brandon Williams averages 39.9 yards per punt, which ranks eighth in the Big Ten. In the return game, Northwestern is dangerous with Mark averaging 25.1 yards per punt return. He has already returned two four touchdowns this season.
Rushing Attempts: 12 – Denard will pass Tyrone Wheatley for 6th in career rushing attempts.
Like I said yesterday, I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see Gardner to play tomorrow. Northwestern can be torched through the air and if Denard’s throwing elbow is still at all bothersome, Hoke won’t risk the possibility of Denard playing against Ohio State. Michigan is more of a passing threat with Gardner at the helm and with the aggressiveness of Northwestern’s linebackers, he should be able to find a healthy dose of Jeremy Gallon, Drew Dileo, and Devin Funchess underneath. Regardless of who is behind center, expect a big passing day.
Defensively, Michigan will give up some yards in the first half, adjust and clamp down. It will be tough to slow down Colter and Mark, but with no major passing threat to worry about, Mattison can hone in on the run, and he has the advantage of going up against the same type of offense in practice day in and day out.
It will be close through the first half and into the third quarter, but Michigan will be too much for the Wildcats and will keep its title hopes alive.
Michigan 28 – Northwestern 17
As Michigan has done every game this season, another player (or set of players) will be given “legends” distinction prior to kickoff. This time, it is the Wistert brothers – Francis, Albert, and Alvin – who all wore number 11 in the 1940s. All three were first team All-Americans. One Michigan player will be awarded the number to go along with the previous numbers that have been given out: 47 to Jake Ryan, 87 to Brandon Moore, and 48 to Desmond Morgan. The Wistert brothers played offensive and defensive tackle, so my guess as to which player will get the honor is Quinton Washington, who has stepped up this season and been good off the field.
Bonus: the brothers’ nicknames were Whitey, Ox, and Moose.
Read our preseason preview here.
Michigan kept its Big Ten title hopes alive by doing exactly what it was expected to do: beat Minnesota. The quest continues this Saturday against another Legends division foe that has its own, albeit unlikely, championship hopes. Northwestern enters 7-2 overall and 3-2 in the conference. The two losses came at the hands of Penn State and Nebraska, and because of that loss to the Cornhuskers, Northwestern has to win out and needs Nebraska to lose twice more to win the division.
In all reality, Northwestern should have beaten Nebraska, just like Michigan State should have done this past Saturday. The Wildcats held a 12 point lead in the fourth quarter, but let it slip away. Otherwise, this Saturday’s game would be even bigger for both teams. Can Michigan keep it’s hopes alive, or will Northwestern put an end to them? Let’s take a look.
|Northwestern 2012 Statistics & Michigan Comparison|
|Northwestern | Michigan||Rank||Opponent||Rank|
|Points Per Game||30.4 | 28.8||52 | 60||22.3 | 16.8||35 | 13|
|Rushing Yards||2,128 | 1,808||1,092 | 1,289|
|Rush Avg. Per Game||236.4 | 200.9||13 | 28||121.3 | 143.2||23 | 44|
|Avg. Per Rush||5.3 | 5.0||3.5 | 3.7|
|Passing Yards||1,461 | 1,606||2,452 | 1,309|
|Pass Avg. Per Game||162.3 | 178.4||109 | 105||272.4 | 145.4||107 | 1|
|Total Offense||3,589 | 3,414||3,544 | 2,598|
|Total Off Avg. Per Game||398.8 | 379.3||67 | 82||393.8 | 288.7||60 | 7|
|Kick Return Average||15.9 | 22.4||116 | 53||20.0 | 21.7||38 | 68|
|Punt Return Average||21.0 | 8.9||3 | 57||3.3 | 6.3||11 | 49|
|Avg. Time of Possession||29:08 | 30:35||80 | 48||30:52 | 29:25|
|3rd Down Conversion Pct||46% | 48%||25 | 16||39% | 34%||57 | 31|
|Sacks By-Yards||19-130 | 11-99||52 | 105||12-69 | 10-78||24 | 18|
|Touchdowns Scored||34 | 31||24 | 15|
|Field Goals-Attempts||12-13 | 14-17||11-13 | 15-21|
|Red Zone Scores||(32-35) 91% | (28-31) 90%||8 | 14||(26-32) 81% | (22-26) 85%||56 | 87|
|Red Zone Touchdowns||(22-35) 63% | (17-31) 55%||(17-32) 53% | (11-26) 42%|
The main thing that sticks out of the stats is Northwestern’s run game which ranks 13th nationally and third in the Big Ten behind Nebraska and Ohio State. The reason for the success is the two-headed monster of running back Venric Mark and jack of all trades Kain Colter. Mark trails only Michigan State’s Le’Veon Bell in yards per game (119.7) and is second only to Denard Robinson in yards per carry (6.5). Colter has carried the ball 114 times for 622 yards and 11 touchdowns.
While the run game is highly successful, the passing game leaves much to be desired. Averaging just 162.3 yards per game through the air, Northwestern is last in the Big Ten. Quarterback Trevor Siemian has completed just under 59 percent of his passes for 931 yards, four touchdowns, and three interceptions. But after underwhelming performances against Penn State and Wisconsin, it was Colter who regained the quarterback position against Iowa on Saturday. He threw just nine passes, completing six of them, but one of those completions was a 47-yard touchdown. It hasn’t been officially announced yet, but he will likely be under center this Saturday.
Sounds a big like Michigan, right? Good run game, lackluster passing game, explosive dual-threat quarterback. Well, what about their defense?
Northwestern boasts a solid rush defense, allowing just 121.3 yards per game, which ranks 23rd nationally and fourth in the Big Ten. The best rushing offense the Wildcats have faced, Nebraska, was held to 68 yards below its season average. However, the ‘Huskers lit up the NW pass defense with 342 yards through the air. And that leads us to the Wildcat weakness and the main discrepancy between Michigan and Northwestern: pass defense.
Northwestern gives up an average of 272.4 passing yards per game, which is last in the Big Ten and 107th nationally. This also likely plays into the good rush defense numbers, but any way you slice it, there’s room to pass on the Wildcats. Last season, Denard passed for 337 yards on NW – the second best passing game of his career.
Linebacker Damien Proby leads the team, and ranks fourth in the conference, in tackles with 86, while fellow linebacker David Nwabuisi ranks ninth in the Big Ten with 75. They’re a large part of why the run defense has been so good. Defensive back Ibraheim Campbell ranks 12th in the conference with 67, which gives NW three players with more tackles than Michigan’s top tackler, Desmond Morgan. Of course, tackles don’t tell the whole picture. Defensive lineman Scott Tyler leads the Big Ten with seven sacks.
An area of concern for Michigan should be in the return game. Mark averages 25.2 yards per punt return and has already returned two for touchdowns this season. He hasn’t had as much success on kick returns, but he’s still dangerous any time the ball is in his hands and Michigan hasn’t been great at covering kicks this season.
It will certainly be a tougher game than this past Saturday, but it’s another game that Michigan should win. Michigan now carries the nation’s second longest home winning streak and will need that to continue in the Big House on Saturday to stay in contention for Indianapolis.