Three games remain in the regular season and Michigan must win all of them to stay in the Big Ten title hunt. And just like last week, the Wolverines might have to do it without Denard Robinson. All week, Brady Hoke has been coy about Denard’s status. When asked about Denard’s status on Thursday morning, Hoke said, “We’ve got a plan in place and we’ve been running through it all week.” When asked again, he replied simply, “I don’t know. The plan is to go out and win a football game.”

Michigan did win a football game last week without Denard thanks to a solid performance by Devin Gardner and the receiving corps stepping up. But this week’s opponent, Northwestern, is a better team than Minnesota.

Northwestern enters at 7-2 overall and 3-2 in the Big Ten. Pat Fitzgerald’s squad holds onto extremely slim Big Ten championship hopes, needing to win out and get a lot of help, so the Wildcats will be fighting for their season. The two losses were at Penn State (39-28) and against nebraska (29-28). In that Nebraska game, Northwestern blew a 12 point lead in the fourth quarter. The seven teams Northwestern has beaten have a combined record of 25-38. So is the 7-2 record indicative of a solid squad, or is it more of a reflection of an incredibly weak schedule? Let’s take a look.

When Northwestern has the ball

Quarterback Kain Colter is a version of Denard Robinson that also plays other positions. Sophomore Trevor Siemian started a handful of games at quarterback to allow Colter to play receiver, but Colter has taken back the quarterback job. He has completed 62-of-89 passes for 517 yards, three touchdowns, and two interceptions. But he’s even more dangerous with his feet. He’s the second leading rusher on the team with 622 yards and 11 touchdowns on 114 attempts.

What’s even more dangerous is his backfield mate Venric Mark who is the Big Ten’s second leading rusher in terms of yards per game (119.7). He has eclipsed 100 yards in six of the nine games, including each of the past three. He had 182 yards against Minnesota and 162 yards on 16 carries against Iowa two weeks ago. He’s only 5’8″ but works perfectly in the zone read offense.

The receiving corps doesn’t have a standout, but has several players that contribute. Seven different players have double digit receptions and six of those have over 100 yards. The leading receiver, Tony Jones, hails from Grand Blanc, Mich. and was high school teammates with Justice Hayes and an AAU basketball teammate with Gardner. Oh, and his cousin is Thomas Rawls. He’ll be looking to impress his home state, but the Wildcat passing game isn’t one to be overly concerned with.

Venric Mark and Kain Colter form a dangerous backfield duo

The offensive line is experienced, led by center Brandon Vitabile and seniors Brian Mulroe and Pat Ward on the left side. They have helped pave the way for the Big Ten’s third best rushing offense. They’ve also allowed just 12 sacks, which is second best only to Michigan’s 10. However, a lot of that is a result of the lack of a passing game.

Northwestern runs a zone read offense that aims to get the playmakers – Colter and Mark – to the edge where they can beat cornerbacks and outside linebackers in space. It’s a fast-paced offense that rarely huddles and will sometimes split Colter out wide with Siemian behind center. Similar to last season’s matchup, the Wildcat offense will probably have some success early in the game before Greg Mattison adjusts.

When Michigan has the ball

Northwestern’s defense is slightly above average at stopping the run, but last in the conference against the pass. As mentioned in yesterday’s Friend vs Foe, both Penn State and Nebraska were able to put up gaudy numbers through the air in their wins over NW. In the season opener, Syracuse’s Ryan Nassib threw for 482 yards on 66 attempts.

The strength of the defense is the linebacking unit. Middle linebacker Damien Proby leads the ‘Cats with 86 tackles. David Nwabuisi is second with 75 and Chi Chi Ariguzo ranks third with 67. They’re a major reason for the success of the run defense, but they’re don’t excel in pass coverage, which is one of the reasons Northwestern has such a weak pass defense.

The line is led by end Tyler Scott who has a Big Ten best seven sacks to go along with 8.5 tackles for loss, leading the team in both categories. The other end is Quentin Williams who has 2.5 sacks and 3.5 tackles for loss. The guys in the middle are small and don’t make a lot of impact. Brian Arnfelt has three sacks, but Sean McEvilly has one, but that’s about it.

Safety Ibraheim Campbell is the leader of the secondary. He has 67 tackles and loves to come up in run support. The Wildcats have just three interceptions and only one of them is from a defensive back, Nick VanHoose.

The nation’s 108th-ranked pass defense gives up 272.2 yards per game and it’s a good bed Michigan will have success as well.

The other third

Kicker Jeff Budzien has made 11-of-12 this season with a long of 44. His lone miss was over 50 yards, so he’s about as reliable as it gets in the Big Ten this season. He made 6-of-10 last season. Punter Brandon Williams averages 39.9 yards per punt, which ranks eighth in the Big Ten. In the return game, Northwestern is dangerous with Mark averaging 25.1 yards per punt return. He has already returned two four touchdowns this season.

Prediction

Like I said yesterday, I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see Gardner to play tomorrow. Northwestern can be torched through the air and if Denard’s throwing elbow is still at all bothersome, Hoke won’t risk the possibility of Denard playing against Ohio State. Michigan is more of a passing threat with Gardner at the helm and with the aggressiveness of Northwestern’s linebackers, he should be able to find a healthy dose of Jeremy Gallon, Drew Dileo, and Devin Funchess underneath. Regardless of who is behind center, expect a big passing day.

Defensively, Michigan will give up some yards in the first half, adjust and clamp down. It will be tough to slow down Colter and Mark, but with no major passing threat to worry about, Mattison can hone in on the run, and he has the advantage of going up against the same type of offense in practice day in and day out.

It will be close through the first half and into the third quarter, but Michigan will be too much for the Wildcats and will keep its title hopes alive.

Michigan 28 – Northwestern 17

Notes

As Michigan has done every game this season, another player (or set of players) will be given “legends” distinction prior to kickoff. This time, it is the Wistert brothers – Francis, Albert, and Alvin – who all wore number 11 in the 1940s. All three were first team All-Americans. One Michigan player will be awarded the number to go along with the previous numbers that have been given out: 47 to Jake Ryan, 87 to Brandon Moore, and 48 to Desmond Morgan. The Wistert brothers played offensive and defensive tackle, so my guess as to which player will get the honor is Quinton Washington, who has stepped up this season and been good off the field.

Bonus: the brothers’ nicknames were Whitey, Ox, and Moose.

For this week’s edition of Friend vs. Foe, we welcome Philip from the Northwestern blog Lake the Posts.  He will provide his perspective on how or why Northwestern can beat Michigan on Saturday. Remember, this is not an actual game prediction. It is an attempt to describe how or why each team can win from each side of the matchup.

The case for Northwestern

by Philip

If there is one thing you learn from watching Northwestern football it is that anything is possible on any given day. Except a Northwestern blowout win. Those just don’t happen. In Big Ten play this year, the Wildcats have proven that they can play with everyone on their schedule and that they cannot protect a lead in the fourth quarter. But you have to be good enough to build a lead in order to blow it – at least that is what the optimist in me says.

Northwestern had to do something and while the losses to Nebraska and Penn State still wake me up in a cold sweat, NU did some really nice things to get there that any defense has to be prepared to handle. This season has seen the emergence of Northwestern’s run game, something the team has not really had since Tyrell Sutton in 2005.

Venric Mark is this team’s biggest offensive weapon and his attitude has permeated through this rushing attack. He has already hit the 1,000 yard mark and has breakaway speed. Teams don’t punt to him anymore because his likely to break one at any time. He had an 80-yard run against Nebraska and two 50-yard runs against Minnesota. Despite his small size and speed, Mark is not afraid to dish out a hit and run between the tackles. Don’t be surprised to see him burst through a tiny crack between the hashes and burst forward or to get up from a pile and into a defensive lineman’s face. If you do not have your defense locked onto Mark he will score on you and score on you quickly.

That makes Northwestern especially dangerous in the option game. Kain Colter still does some every-backing here and there, but he is most effective when he runs the option with Mark next to him. Just the threat of Colter opens things up for Mark and the threat of Mark opens things up for Colter, who is a very good decisionmaker in the option and extremely slippery when he is out on the perimeter.

On the other side of the ball, the Wildcats defense is improved although still a little weak. The run defense has been solid all year and the defensive line and linebackers have been solid. So long as they are making tackles and not overly winded from an offense that cannot stay on the field. The secondary too is improved even though it continues to give up yards in chunks. But the communications issue and generally the deep passes are not there for opposing teams. Northwestern has long not been a team you can overlook, but now that is really true. There is a reason Northwestern is No. 24 in the BCS.

The key for the Wildcats is staying on the field offensively. That has been the offense’s struggle all year and it has led to disastrous results for Northwestern. Coming off the bye week, I suspect Northwestern will feel comfortable with its gameplan and come out with a lot of confidence in its run game led by Kain Colter, with easy passes mixed in to keep the defense off balance. There may be some Trevor Siemian sightings when Northwestern needs a long pass or Colter needs a breather. If he gets into any kind of rhythm passing, this offense becomes downright scary.

More importantly, if the Wildcats are able to sustain drives, the defense is good enough to hold down just about any offense and give the Cats a chance to win the game. If the Wildcats are unable to score points or sustain drives, the defense could get tired and that makes no lead safe.

The case for Michigan

by Justin

This is a game that concerns me probably more than it should, similar to how I felt entering last season’s matchup. Northwestern is probably a better team right now than it was last season and Michigan is arguably slightly worse. Michigan must win to stay in Big Ten title contention, while Northwestern can also say the same, although the Wildcats’ path to Indianapolis is much more narrow than Michigan’s.

The good thing is Northwestern’s strength – an explosive offense – feeds right into Michigan’s strength – a highly-ranked defense. The Wildcats rank 13th nationally in rush offense, averaging 236.4 yards per game, but just 113th in pass offense. Michigan’s pass defense ranks first in the nation, and likely will remain that way after Saturday, but Greg Mattison has shown the past two years the ability to slow down a one-dimensional offense. Against big, pro-style offenses like Alabama that are equally as dangerous with the run and pass, the defense is vulnerable. But when he can gear up to stop the run, the defense responds.

Kain Colter is a fantastic athlete, but the NW offense is similar to Michigan’s, relying heavily on the zone read, albeit at a faster pace. Mattison has done well to slow down these types of offenses, if not at first, but at least after making adjustments throughout the game.

Northwestern hasn’t yet faced a really good defense this season, and the two good ones it did face, Penn State (26th) and Nebraska (31st), resulted in losses. Penn State limited Northwestern to just 247 total yards (112 rushing), while Nebraska held NW to 180 yards rushing. Both are well below the season average. There’s no reason to think Michigan’s defense can’t do the same.

But where Michigan will win is on the other side of the ball. Northwestern’s total defense ranks 60th nationally and 35th in points allowed per game, giving up almost a touchdown more than Michigan. While the rush defense is respectable, the pass defense gives up 272 yards per game. Matt McGloin torched the Wildcats for 282 and Taylor Martinez did so for 342. This is where I think in this game, given the health of Denard Robinson, Devin Gardner might present the better matchup. It’s kind of blasphemous to say so, and I still think Michigan can win whether Gardner or Denard starts, but Gardner presents a better passing game, especially with Denard’s ailing throwing elbow.

Of course, no one outside of The Fort knows the status right now, so until I hear otherwise, I’m going to assume Denard will be the starter. If so, I believe he can have a game similar to what he did last year against Northwestern (337 yards and two touchdowns passing, 117 yards and two touchdowns rushing) and similar to Martinez’s performance a couple weeks ago.

I have a sneaking suspicion that we will see some Gardner regardless of Denard’s health, but expect a closely contested first half with Michigan pulling away in the second. It won’t be as high scoring ast last year’s meeting in Evanston, but there’s no reason Michigan should lose. Stay tuned for tomorrow’s game preview and staff predictions for a more in depth analysis.

Read our preseason preview here.

Michigan kept its Big Ten title hopes alive by doing exactly what it was expected to do: beat Minnesota. The quest continues this Saturday against another Legends division foe that has its own, albeit unlikely, championship hopes. Northwestern enters 7-2 overall and 3-2 in the conference. The two losses came at the hands of Penn State and Nebraska, and because of that loss to the Cornhuskers, Northwestern has to win out and needs Nebraska to lose twice more to win the division.

In all reality, Northwestern should have beaten Nebraska, just like Michigan State should have done this past Saturday. The Wildcats held a 12 point lead in the fourth quarter, but let it slip away. Otherwise, this Saturday’s game would be even bigger for both teams. Can Michigan keep it’s hopes alive, or will Northwestern put an end to them? Let’s take a look.

The main thing that sticks out of the stats is Northwestern’s run game which ranks 13th nationally and third in the Big Ten behind Nebraska and Ohio State. The reason for the success is the two-headed monster of running back Venric Mark and jack of all trades Kain Colter. Mark trails only Michigan State’s Le’Veon Bell in yards per game (119.7) and is second only to Denard Robinson in yards per carry (6.5). Colter has carried the ball 114 times for 622 yards and 11 touchdowns.

While the run game is highly successful, the passing game leaves much to be desired. Averaging just 162.3 yards per game through the air, Northwestern is last in the Big Ten. Quarterback Trevor Siemian has completed just under 59 percent of his passes for 931 yards, four touchdowns, and three interceptions. But after underwhelming performances against Penn State and Wisconsin, it was Colter who regained the quarterback position against Iowa on Saturday. He threw just nine passes, completing six of them, but one of those completions was a 47-yard touchdown. It hasn’t been officially announced yet, but he will likely be under center this Saturday.

Venric Mark is the Big Ten's second leading rusher (photo by Nam Y. Huh, AP)

Sounds a big like Michigan, right? Good run game, lackluster passing game, explosive dual-threat quarterback. Well, what about their defense?

Northwestern boasts a solid rush defense, allowing just 121.3 yards per game, which ranks 23rd nationally and fourth in the Big Ten. The best rushing offense the Wildcats have faced, Nebraska, was held to 68 yards below its season average. However, the ‘Huskers lit up the NW pass defense with 342 yards through the air. And that leads us to the Wildcat weakness and the main discrepancy between Michigan and Northwestern: pass defense.

Northwestern gives up an average of 272.4 passing yards per game, which is last in the Big Ten and 107th nationally. This also likely plays into the good rush defense numbers, but any way you slice it, there’s room to pass on the Wildcats. Last season, Denard passed for 337 yards on NW – the second best passing game of his career.

Linebacker Damien Proby leads the team, and ranks fourth in the conference, in tackles with 86, while fellow linebacker David Nwabuisi ranks ninth in the Big Ten with 75. They’re a large part of why the run defense has been so good. Defensive back Ibraheim Campbell ranks 12th in the conference with 67, which gives NW three players with more tackles than Michigan’s top tackler, Desmond Morgan. Of course, tackles don’t tell the whole picture. Defensive lineman Scott Tyler leads the Big Ten with seven sacks.

An area of concern for Michigan should be in the return game. Mark averages 25.2 yards per punt return and has already returned two for touchdowns this season. He hasn’t had as much success on kick returns, but he’s still dangerous any time the ball is in his hands and Michigan hasn’t been great at covering kicks this season.

It will certainly be a tougher game than this past Saturday, but it’s another game that Michigan should win. Michigan now carries the nation’s second longest home winning streak and will need that to continue in the Big House on Saturday to stay in contention for Indianapolis.

#5 Michigan v. Northern Michigan (exhibition)
	Thursday, Nov. 1 7pm ET BTN.com
24-10 (13-5)	2011-12 Record	9-17 (5-14)
66.3	Points Per Game	66.3
61.5	Scoring Defense	71.0
808-for-1,777 (45.5%)	Field Goal %	603-for-1,401 (43.0%)
756-for-1,768 (42.8%)	Def. Field Goal %	618-for-1,404 (44.0%)
276-for-788 (35.0%)	3-point %	131-for-416 (31.5%)
203-for-588 (34.5%)	Def. 3-point %	173-for-491 (35.2%)
363-for-503 (72.2%)	Free Throw %	386-for-555 (69.5%)
10.7	Free Throws Made/Game	14.8
30.8	Rebounds Per Game	34.6
31.6	Opp. Rebounds Per Game	34.5
12.7	Assists Per Game	8.2
10.9	Turnovers Per Game	15.3
4.9	Steals Per Game	5.5
2.1	Blocks Per Game	3.5
G – Trey Burke (14.8) G – Tim Hardaway (14.6)	Leading Ret. Scorer	G – Haki Stampley (14.0) F – Matt Craggs (8.8)
F – Jordan Morgan (5.6) G – Tim Hardaway (3.8)	Leading Ret. Rebounder	F – Matt Craggs (5.5) F – TJ Cameron (3.2)

Michigan opens the preseason portion of its schedule on Thursday night against the Northern Michigan Wildcats. It will be the first chance to see the heralded freshman class in action even though the game won’t actually count for anything more than a tune up.

Northern Michigan is coming off a 9-17 season in which it finished in last place in the North division of the Great Lakes Intercollegiate Athletic Conference. Only Ohio Dominican (in the South division) finished with a worse record.

Eight players return for the Wildcats including three starters. The leading returning starter is guard Haki Stampley, who led the team in minutes played (742), threes made (50), assists (47), and steals (34), and was second in scoring (14 points per game). However, he is redshirting this season. That leaves forward Matt Craggs as the leading returning scorer who will see the court. He averaged 8.8 points per game and also led the Wildcats in rebounding with 5.5 per game. Alongside Craggs in the frontcourt is TJ Cameron who averaged seven points and 3.2 rebounds per game. He was named the team’s MVP a year ago.

The backcourt will be handled by sophomores Quinten Calloway and Spencer Huss along with redshirt freshman Terry Nash. Calloway played in 16 games last season, averaging 6.9 points per game, while Hass was named the team’s most improved player.

The biggest unknown are three junior college transfers, Scooter Johnson (Kent State), Jeron Lee (Lewis), and Michael Smith (Grand Rapids Community College).

Northern Michigan likely won’t fare much better than last season and was picked to finish eighth in the GLIAC North division again this year. Head Coach Doug Lewis, in his third year at NMU, will have his work cut out for him to compete and his Wildcats shouldn’t put up much of a fight in the Crisler Center.

The Wildcats gave up 10 more points per game than Michigan did against lesser competition and didn’t shoot the ball very well either. They also averaged over 15 turnovers per game compared to just eight assists. Bad defense, poor shooting, and a terrible assist-to-turnover ratio is a recipe for disaster for any team and that’s what NMU had. Look for Michigan to light up the scoreboard with a big win as it prepares for the season opener next Friday night.

The fourth installment of our preseason opponent preview series brings the fourth easiest (or ninth-toughest) opponent on the schedule, the Northwestern Wildcats. Previously, we introduced, from easiest to not-so-easiest, UMass, Minnesota, and Illinois.

Overview

Northwestern is still trying to break through under Pat Fitzgerald. The former linebacker has guided the Wildcats to four straight bowl games and a 34-29 overall record over the past five seasons. He inked a 10-year deal last May, meaning he has a home in Evanston for as long as he wants. But with just 11 starters returning (five on offense, six on defense), he has his work cut out if he wants to avoid repeating last season’s disappointing losing record.

Offense

Kain Colter takes over at QB for the Wildcats

How do you progress when your quarterback, who finished his career as the all-time Division 1 leader in completion percentage and ranks in your top five in most passing categories, graduates? For Northwestern, the answer is to plug in an even more talented and versatile quarterback who already has experience.

Dan Persa completed nearly 73 percent career passes and was hyped as a Heisman Trophy contender before missing several games last season. The injury opened the door for Kain Colter to gain valuable experience. He played extended minutes in three games and finished the season with a 67 percent completion rate for 673 yards and six touchdowns to just one interception. But he did the most damage with his legs, leading the Wildcats in rushing with 654 yards and nine touchdowns. He also caught 43 passes for 466 yards and three touchdowns. This year, he gets the chance to step out of Persa’s shadow and take the reigns of the offense behind center.

Having another talented playmaker is a good place to start and Colter has one in five-star receiver Kyle Prater. The USC transfer will instantly become one of the top receivers in the Big Ten. At 6’5″ and 215 pounds, he’ll be a tough matchup for any defensive back. But he’s not the only weapon Colter will have. Receivers Demetrius Fields and Christian Jones also return, as does running back Treyvon Green who had a good freshman campaign last season. Running back Mike Trumpy returns from a torn ACL, and how well he has recovered will determine whether he’s the starter.

The big question mark offensively is the line, which struggled throughout the spring. It has to find a replacement for left tackle Al Netter and center Ben Burkett, but head coach Pat Fitzgerald loves competition and will have all summer and fall camp to determine a solid five.

Defense

Defensively, Northwestern faces some questions despite returning six starters. The line looks to be pretty good with returning ends Tyler Scott and Quentin Williams. Redshirt freshman Deonte Gibson and sophomore Chance Carter both shined in the spring game leaving many in Evanston excited about their possibilities. Similarly, the linebackers are experienced, with Damien Proby, David Nwabuisi, and four others pushing for time. Incoming freshman Ifeadi Odenigbo is one to watch. He’s a four-star from Centerville, Ohio who ranked ninth nationally at the linebacker position and held offers from Michigan, Alabama, Oklahoma, USC, Ohio State, Stanford and many more.

The biggest are of question on the defense is the secondary, which lost three starters from the conference’s third worst pass defense. Safety Ibraheim Campbell is the only one who looks to have a starting spot secured. A host of others are battling through inexperience, poor play, and mental mistakes for the remaining spots. Corner Daniel Jones started in the Meineke Car Care Bowl, but after him, the dropoff is severe.

Special Teams

Punter Brandon Williams and kicker Jeff Budzien both return, though the latter connected on just 60 percent of his field goal attempts last season. Kick and punt returner Venric Mark is a speedy threat in the return game. His 15.9 yards per punt return led the Big Ten last season and ranked third nationally.

Outlook

All four non-conference games are winnable and then the Wildcats open conference play with Indiana, a beleaguered Penn State, and Minnesota, so they could jump out of the gates hot. But the schedule is back-loaded and with so many questions defensively and the need for playmakers to emerge on offense, six or seven wins are the most Northwestern will reach in 2012.

What it means for Michigan

The game falls late in the season, right after Michigan plays Minnesota. It’s Michigan’s first time back in Ann Arbor after road contests at Nebraska and Minnesota, so it falls in a good spot. Northwestern does get an extra week to prepare for Michigan, but it’s in the Big House. The Colter to Prater connection is worrisome, especially since Michigan doesn’t have tall defensive backs, and the Wildcats should be able to put up some points this season, but there’s no way they can slow down Michigan that late in the season. A year ago, Northwestern hung tough in the first half before Greg Mattison adjusted the defense and shut the Wildcats down in the second. This season’s game should be closer to the second half than the first.