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Posts Tagged ‘Wisconsin’

Wisconsin 68 – Michigan 59: Badgers send Michigan home from Chicago

Friday, March 15th, 2013


Final 1st 2nd Total
#6 Michigan (27-6) 20 39 59
#22 Wisconsin (22-10) 17 51 68

Tim Hardaway Jr scored 14 points and grabbed nine assists in the loss (Nam Y. Hugh, AP)

It was a classic tale of two halves for Michigan and Wisconsin on Friday afternoon as the first half saw brick after brick and the second became a shootout. Wisconsin scored a season low 17 points in the first half on 5-of-29 shooting, but Michigan didn’t fare much better, tallying just 20 points. Neither team could muster any offense in a first half that more resembled a women’s Big Ten Tournament game that a men’s.

But in the second half, Wisconsin performed almost flawlessly, racking up 51 points on 17-of-28 shooting (6-of-9 from three). To put that number in perspective, it’s more than the Badgers scored in six entire games this season.

Wisconsin broke out to a 56-45 lead with under six minutes to play before Michigan put together a nice scoring run of its own to claw back into the game. Nine straight points brought the Wolverines within two with 3:37 left, but with the shot clock running down on a Badger possession, Frank Kaminsky made a contested jumper to stop the momentum. Michigan wasn’t able to convert on its next possession and was forced to foul the rest of the way to try to catch up. But it wasn’t meant to be and the Wolverines fell 68-59.

For the game, Michigan shot just 40.4 percent from the field and made just 3-of-13 three-pointers. The free throw line was also a sore spot as Michigan hit just 10-of-17. The Wolverines also turned the ball over 11 times compared to just seven assists.

Trey Burke led the way with 19 points, but it took him 22 shots to get there. He got several open looks from around the free throw line, but was unable to find his stroke. Tim Hardaway Jr. added 14 points and nine rebounds, while no other Michigan player scored in double figures. The big men struggled particularly, netting a combined 14 points, nine of which came from Mitch McGary. Jordan Morgan was held scoreless in eight minutes and turned the ball over three times.

Michigan now has to wait and see where it will be placed in next week’s NCAA Tournament. With a 6-6 record over its past 12 games, a 2-seed might be out of the question, depending on how the rest of the conference tournaments finish up this weekend. Michigan is now just 9-13 all-time in Big Ten Tournament play.

Final Game Stats
# Name FG-FGA 3FG-3FGA FT-FTA OR DR TOT PF TP A TO BLK S MIN
01 Glenn Robinson III* 4-8 0-1 0-4 1 2 3 0 8 0 0 0 2 32
52 Jordan Morgan* 0-0 0-0 0-0 2 2 4 2 0 0 3 0 0 8
10 Tim Hardaway Jr.* 5-9 2-4 2-2 0 9 9 3 14 0 2 1 0 37
11 Nik Stauskas* 1-8 0-4 2-2 0 5 5 1 4 0 0 2 0 35
03 Trey Burke* 8-22 1-3 2-2 0 2 2 2 19 7 4 1 2 38
13 Matt Vogrich 0-1 0-1 0-0 0 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 5
15 Jon Horford 2-2 0-0 1-1 0 0 0 3 5 0 0 0 0 10
02 Spike Albrecht 0-0 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 7
23 Caris LeVert 0-0 0-0 0-2 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 4
04 Mitch McGary 3-7 0-0 3-4 3 4 7 2 9 0 2 0 2 23
44 Max Bielfeldt 0-0 0-0 0-0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
Totals 23-57 3-13 10-17 9 29 38 18 59 7 11 4 6 200
Wisconsin 22-57 8-22 16-21 9 28 37 14 68 13 9 5 9 200

Michigan vs Wisconsin quick thoughts

Friday, March 15th, 2013


#6 Michigan (5) vs #22 Wisconsin (4)
Friday, Mar. 15 | 2:30pm ET | ESPN
26-6 (12-6) Record 21-10 (12-6)
Slippery Rock 100-62
IUPUI 91-54
Cleveland State 77-47
Pittsburgh 67-62
Kansas State 71-57
NC State 79-72
Bradley 74-66
W. Michigan 73-41
Arkansas 80-67
Binghamton 67-39
West Virginia 81-66
E. Michigan 93-54
C. Michigan 88-73
Northwestern 94-66
Iowa 95-67
Nebraska 62-47
#9 Minnesota 83-75
Purdue 68-53
Illinois 74-60
Northwestern 68-46
#10 Ohio State 76-74 OT
Penn State 79-71
Illinois 71-58
#9 Michigan State 58-57
Purdue 80-75
Penn State 83-66
Wins SE Louisiana 87-47
Cornell 73-40
Presbyterian 88-43
Arkansas 77-70
Cal 81-56
Nebraska-Omaha 86-40
Green Bay 65-54
Milwaukee 74-43
Samford 87-51
Penn State 60-51
Nebraska 47-41
#12 Illinois 74-51
#2 Indiana 64-59
#12 Minnesota 45-44
Illinois 74-68
Iowa 74-70 2OT
#3 Michigan 65-62 OT
#13 Ohio State 71-49
Northwestern 69-41
Nebraska 77-46
Penn State 63-60
#15 Ohio State 56-53
#3 Indiana 73-81
Wisconsin 62-65 OT
#8 Michigan State 52-75
Penn State 78-84
#2 Indiana 71-72
Losses #10 Florida 56-74
#14 Creighton 74-84
Virginia 54-60
Marquette 50-60
Iowa 66-70
#13 Michigan State 47-49
#11 Ohio State 49-58
Minnesota 53-58 OT
Purdue 56-69
#10 Michigan State 43-58
75.7 Points Per Game 66.1
62.8 Scoring Defense 56.0
900-for-1,851 (48.6%) Field Goal % 743-for-1,747 (42.5%)
763-for-1,816 (42.0%) Def. Field Goal % 658-for-1,669 (39.4%)
244-for-632 (38.6%) 3-point % 234-for-696 (33.6%)
208-for-632 (32.9%) Def. 3-point % 124-for-409 (30.3%)
377-for-530 (71.1%) Free Throw % 329-for-522 (63.0%)
11.8 FT Made/Game 10.6
35.0 Rebounds Per Game 37.0
32.0 Opp. Reb. Per Game 32.7
14.5 Assists Per Game 13.4
9.2 Turnovers Per Game 9.6
6.0 Steals Per Game 5.5
2.8 Blocks Per Game 4.1
G – Trey Burke (19.2)
G – Tim Hardaway Jr. (14.8)
Leading Scorer F – Jared Berggren (11.5)
G – Ben Brust (11.3)
F – Glenn Robinson III (5.5)
F – Mitch McGary (5.5)
Leading Rebounder F – Ryan Evans (7.5)
F – Jared Berggren (7.1)

After a relatively easy dispatching of Penn State in the first round of this year’s Big Ten Tournament, Michigan moves on to face Wisconsin, who earned a bye to Day 2. The Wolverines only met the Badgers one time during the regular season, a 65-62 overtime heartbreaker of a loss for Michigan, and will continue to have revenge on their minds from here on out, as each likely future foe will have beaten the Maize and Blue at least once already. With less time to prepare for each matchup in a play-everyday-til-you-lose style format, today we will only focus on two keys to this matchup. Here they are:

1. Control the Pace: Wisconsin’s biggest strength is in its ability to seemingly control the speed at which every single one of their games is played – slow, methodical, and bruising. Bo Ryan thrives despite not always having superior talent by maximizing each possession and cutting down on the overall opportunities for opponents to make up points by limiting possessions overall, thus practically eliminating the possibility of a blowout loss in every game.

The Badgers in fact never gave up more than 70 points in a Big Ten game all year, and held opponents to 60 or fewer points in a remarkable 13 of 18 Big Ten games.

Michigan is the type of team that plays best when some free-roaming opportunities to run and showcase an attack that consists of speed, athleticism, and precision are available. Obviously that is very difficult to do against a Wisconsin outfit that rarely turns the ball over and gets back on defense with the best of them, but a few quick, early buckets for Trey Burke and company will do wonders to get Michigan going. When Burke can get the break started surrounded by shooters like Nik Stauskas and Tim Hardaway, Jr. and finishers like Glenn Robinson III, this Wolverine squad becomes nearly unbeatable. A couple easy buckets in the opening minutes should pave the way for a Michigan win.

2. It’s all about the Team: By this time of the year, we all know Trey Burke is, at the very least, one of the best players in America. The Big Ten Player of the Year can score with the best of them from anywhere on the floor and dishes out dimes like a police officer handing out parking tickets in Ann Arbor.

What can make Michigan special, however, is their ability to spread the floor and devastate the enemy with all five guys on the court at all times. In yesterday’s win over Penn State, Mitch McGary had a first half double-double, Stauskas and Hardaway filled up the scoring column, and Jon Horford provided a very nice production boost in the second half to help seal the rout. Yes, Burke got his 21 points on 15 shots, but the supporting cast provided a threat, thus opening up driving lanes for the ringleader. In March, one-name teams usually don’t go far, and if Michigan hopes to make a deep run in both tournaments, everyone needs to play a part.

This is especially the case against a lockdown defensive team like Wisconsin. If the Wolverines send a message to the Badgers early that every player on the court is worthy of attention, Wisconsin will not be able to key in on the All-American and Michigan will win. In the first game between these two teams, Hardaway and Burke combined for nearly 60 percent of the team’s scoring output, which is altogether too high. Another number like that could spell doom this afternoon, but a more reasonable 40-50 percent would be music to coach John Beilein’s ears and a strong indication that Michigan is playing as a team.

Prediction: One-day turnaround games are tough enough to begin with, but when having to face a solid team that did not have to play the day before, the task becomes nearly impossible. For the Wolverines, however, I truly think that anything is possible if all the pieces come together, and the sour taste left by the first matchup should give the Maize and Blue the extra fuel in the tank to pull off the victory. Four guys reach double figures, led by Trey Burke’s 18 points and 10 assists. Stauskas, Hardaway, and Morgan carry the rest of the load and help send Michigan to the semis with a 71-64 win.

The path to the Big Ten title

Monday, February 11th, 2013


Michigan took a major hit to its Big Ten title hopes with a heartbreaking overtime loss at Wisconsin on Saturday. With a 8-3 conference record and seven games remaining, do the Wolverines still have a chance to win at least a share of the title for the second straight season? The short answer is yes. But let’s examine the remaining schedule of each of the contenders.

Remaining Schedule
Nebraska Michigan Northwestern @ Minnesota @ Michigan State
Purdue @ Nebraska @ Wisconsin Ohio State Penn State
@ Michigan State Indiana Minnesota @ Northwestern Illinois
@ Minnesota @ Ohio State Michigan State Nebraska @ Penn State
Iowa @ Michigan @ Northwestern Purdue Michigan State
Ohio State Wisconsin @ Indiana @ Michigan State @ Purdue
@ Michigan Northwestern Illinois @ Penn State Indiana

Indiana (9-2) is widely considered the main challenger and pulled off a big road win in Columbus on Sunday afternoon. The Hoosiers still have trips to Michigan State, Minnesota and Michigan remaining, with home tilts with Nebraska, Purdue, Iowa, and Ohio State. It’s probably a safe bet to assume IU will lose at least one of those games leading into the final game of the season in Ann Arbor.

Michigan State (9-2) has perhaps the toughest remaining schedule of the top contenders, beginning with tomorrow’s matchup with Michigan. The Spartans get a breather with Nebraska before hosting Indiana, traveling to Ohio State and Michigan, then hosting Wisconsin before finishing with Northwestern.

Ohio State (7-4) has the most ground to make up following its loss to Indiana. After failing to hold court at home, the Buckeyes will probably need to win out to secure at least a share of the title. But it’s not an easy road. Trips to Wisconsin, Northwestern and Indiana loom and home bouts with Northwestern, Minnesota, Michigan State and Illinois won’t be easy.

Michigan needs to steal a win in the Breslin Center

The surprise team of the conference has been Wisconsin (8-3), the team that beat Michigan on Saturday and also has a road win over Indiana. The Badgers have perhaps the easiest road of all of Michigan’s challengers the rest of the way as long as they can get through the next two games, a road trip to Minnesota on Thursday and a home battle with Ohio State. From there, they visit Northwestern, Michigan State and Penn State, and host Nebraska and Purdue.

Michigan (8-3) still has to survive a home and home with Michigan State and the season ender against Indiana, but the Wolverines also still get two games against Penn State, a home game against Illinois and a trip to Purdue.

If both Michigan and Indiana both win their next six games, it will all come down to the March 10 showdown in Ann Arbor with Michigan needing to win to share the title and Indiana needing to win to take the title outright. Winning seven straight would be a tall task for the Wolverines, but if they can come out of East Lansing with a win tomorrow night, the chances will improve drastically.

A loss on Tuesday would mean Michigan has to rely on help. Both Michigan State and Indiana would need to lose twice. Michigan could help out with one of those for each team, but would then need each to lose again. That’s certainly not out of the question – remember last season when Michigan lost its last home game to Purdue, but ended up sharing the Big Ten title – but it’s a lot to ask for.

That being said, tomorrow’s battle in East Lansing is extremely important. It’s pretty safe to assume that Michigan will win its next three games after that one, so by that time, the Feb. 19 Indiana-Michigan State game will have either all but knocked the Spartans out of the race or dropped the Hoosiers into a tie with both MSU and Michigan with three games remaining.

Michigan has won three of the last four over the Spartans and would love to continue that trend. So far this season, Indiana (at Ohio State), Michigan State (at Wisconsin), and Wisconsin (at Indiana) each have road wins over title contenders. Michigan will need to follow suit and steal one on the road. Regardless, it’s safe to say the conference title race is going to come down to the very last weekend and will set up an epic Big Ten Tournament in Chicago.

Wisconsin 65 – Michigan 62 OT: Half court heave dooms Michigan

Saturday, February 9th, 2013


Final 1st 2nd OT Total
#3 Michigan (21-3, 8-3) 29 31 2 62
Wisconsin (17-7, 8-3) 28 32 5 65

This is what it's like for Michigan in the Kohl Center (Andy Manis, AP)

Tim Hardaway Jr’s three-pointer with three seconds to play seemed to have ended Michigan’s 13-year futility in Madison. It gave the Wolverines a three point lead and left Wisconsin needing to go the length of the court in 2.1 seconds. But the inbounds pass hit Ben Brust on a curl at midcourt and he took one dribble and heaved it towards the rim. Just as one would expect in Madison, it found nothing but net and sent the game into overtime.

In the extra period, Michigan was unable to find any offense, scoring just two points and missing a couple of layups that could have made the difference. Just like in regulation, it was Brust who hit the big shot, this time a three from several feet behind the three-point line to give the Badgers a three point lead.

After Michigan couldn’t score, the Wolverines were forced to foul, but Ryan Evans missed the front end of a one-and-one, giving Michigan one final chance. But just like at Ohio State, Trey Burke’s three rattled in and out and the Wolverines were sent home from the Kohl Center in defeat yet again.

From the start, it was evident that Michigan was in for a dogfight as Wisconsin opened up a nine point lead by the under-eight time out. But Michigan went on a 9-1 run over the next two-and-a-half minutes to pull within one, and then a pair of Burke jumpers gave Michigan a one-point lead heading into the locker room.

Wisconsin took the lead back in the early part of the second half, but Michigan built a 55-49 lead with 6:31 left to play. From that point, the Wolverines were held scoreless until Burke hit a shot at the 1:06 mark. Michigan led 57-54. Wisconsin big man Jared Berggren beat Mitch McGary off the dribble and dunked over Burke who tried the draw the charge. He was called for a block, sending Berggren to the line for a chance to tie the game. He made the free throw which led to the end of regulation heroics by Hardaway and then Brust.

Burke led Michigan with 19 points, but it took him 21 shots to do so. He hit just 2-of-8 three-point attempts. Hardway finished with 18 on 8-of-17 shooting. McGary had another good game, scoring 12 points and grabbing eight rebounds. He showed the ability to hit the mid-range jumper that will make him tough to defend if he can do so consistently.

As a team, Michigan shot just 39.4 percent from the field and 27.8 percent from downtown. Wisconsin, a poor shooting team, made nearly 44 percent from the field and 41.7 percent from three-point range. For the second game in a row Michigan had trouble getting to the free throw line, this time attempting just two after shooting none against Ohio State.

Michigan missed a golden opportunity to sieze control of the Big Ten race, and now finds itself staring down a must win on the road against Michigan State on Tuesday night.

Final Game Stats
# Name FG-FGA 3FG-3FGA FT-FTA OR DR TOT PF TP A TO BLK S MIN
01 Glenn Robinson III* 2-6 0-1 0-0 1 2 3 2 4 0 0 0 2 33
15 Jon Horford* 1-4 0-0 0-0 1 1 2 2 2 0 1 0 0 7
03 Trey Burke* 8-21 2-8 1-2 0 5 5 2 19 4 1 0 2 40
10 Tim Hardaway Jr.* 8-17 2-3 0-0 0 4 4 4 18 3 1 0 0 37
11 Nik Stauskas* 2-7 1-5 0-0 2 5 7 1 5 3 3 0 0 39
02 Spike Albrecht 0-0 0-0 0-0 1 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 11
04 Mitch McGary 6-10 0-0 0-0 2 6 8 1 12 1 0 1 3 32
23 Caris LeVert 0-3 0-1 0-0 0 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 8
44 Max Bielfeldt 1-3 0-0 0-0 2 2 4 0 2 1 0 0 0 48
Totals 28-71 5-18 1-2 11 28 39 13 62 12 7 1 8 205
Wisconsin 25-57 10-24 5-10 7 32 39 8 65 14 14 5 4 205

Michigan at Wisconsin preview

Friday, February 8th, 2013


#3 Michigan vs Wisconsin
Saturday, Feb. 9 | 12pm ET | ESPN
21-2 (8-2) Record 16-7 (7-3)
Slippery Rock 100-62
IUPUI 91-54
Cleveland State 77-47
Pittsburgh 67-62
Kansas State 71-57
NC State 79-72
Bradley 74-66
W. Michigan 73-41
Arkansas 80-67
Binghamton 67-39
West Virginia 81-66
E. Michigan 93-54
C. Michigan 88-73
Northwestern 94-66
Iowa 95-67
Nebraska 62-47
#9 Minnesota 83-75
Purdue 68-53
Illinois 74-60
Northwestern 68-46
#10 Ohio State 76-74 OT
Wins SE Louisiana 87-47
Cornell 73-40
Presbyterian 88-43
Arkansas 77-70
California 81-56
Nebraska-Omaha 86-40
Green Bay 65-54
Milwaukee 74-53
Samford 87-51
Penn State 60-51
Nebraska 47-41
#12 Illinois 74-51
#2 Indiana 64-59
#12 Minnesota 45-44
Illinois 74-68
Iowa 74-70 2OT
#15 Ohio State 56-53
#3 Indiana 73-81
Losses #10 Florida 56-74
#14 Creighton 74-84
Virginia 54-60
Marquette 50-60
Iowa 66-70
#13 Michigan State 47-49
#11 Ohio State 49-58
77.7 Points Per Game 67.5
60.2 Scoring Defense 56.2
667-for-1,325 (50.3%) Field Goal % 562-for-1,317 (42.7%)
529-for-1,283 (41.2%) Def. Field Goal % 483-for-1,206 (40.0%)
193-for-469 (41.2%) 3-point % 176-for-512 (34.4%)
147-for-467 (31.5%) Def. 3-point % 89-for-291 (30.6%)
260-for-370 (70.3%) Free Throw % 252-for-405 (62.2%)
11.3 FT Made/Game 11.0
36.2 Rebounds Per Game 36.9
29.6 Opp. Reb. Per Game 32.3
15.5 Assists Per Game 13.2
9.4 Turnovers Per Game 9.2
5.6 Steals Per Game 5.9
2.9 Blocks Per Game 4.0
G – Trey Burke (18.1)
G – Tim Hardaway Jr. (16.0)
Leading Scorer F – Jared Berggren (11.8)
G – Ben Brust (11.0)
F – Mitch McGary (6.0)
F – Glenn Robinson III (5.7)
Leading Rebounder F – Ryan Evans (7.7)
F – Jared Berggren (6.8)

For the third weekend in the past five, Michigan has a chance to grab the No.1 spot in the national rankings with a win. Whether the Wolverines actually want the ranking and the curse that comes with it is debatable, since it seems to be the poison pill the past few weeks. But no one doubts whether the Maize and Blue want or need the win in Madison on Saturday afternoon.

With Indiana’s loss to Illinois on Thursday night and Michigan’s overtime win over Ohio State on Tuesday, the Wolverines are back in control of their own destiny in the Big Ten race. There’s still a long way to go with two games against rival Michigan State and a home bout with Indiana remaining, but a win tomorrow in one of the conference’s toughest venues would be big.

Nobody expected Wisconsin to be among the Big Ten’s title contenders, but with a win over Indiana and narrow losses to Ohio State and Michigan State, the Badgers have shown how feisty they can be. In essence, they’re a classic Bo Ryan team based around relentless defense and a ball control offense.

Saturday’s early showdown (tip is 11am local time) will be a clash of styles as the Big Ten’s top defense that prefers to play the game at a snail’s pace will try to slow down Michigan’s ultra-efficient offense that relies on a dynamic transition game.

While Arkansas and Virginia managed to beat Wisconsin in Madison early in the season, the Badgers have proven that doing so in conference play is a much tougher proposition. They beat Illinois and Minnesota in the Kohl Center and took Michigan State to the wire. But it was the win at Indiana three weeks ago that let everyone know they’re for real. Wisconsin’s defense held the Hoosiers 24 points below their season average thanks to a defense that limited Indiana to just 37 percent from the field.

A trio of Badgers score at roughly the same clip, led by 6’10″ big man Jared Berggren’s 11.8 points per game. He scored 27 earlier in the season against Creighton, but had a string of five out of six games in which he was held to single-digits beginning with the IU game. Since that game, he has shot just 32 percent from the field. He has the ability to step out and hit the three, but over that span, he has made just 4-of-22. He’s also the second-team’s leading rebounder, which you would expect from a guy his size.

Guard Ben Brust averages 11 points and just under three assists per game and is coming off back-to-back solid performances. He scored 20 and 18 points against Illinois and Iowa, respectively, and shot 52 percent in the process. He’s a dangerous three-point shooter as well.

Senior forward Ryan Evans is also hot after consecutive 15-point, nine-rebound performances. He leads the team with 7.7 rebounds per game, but is not a threat from three, and if there’s a guy you need to foul down the stretch, he’s the guy with a 42.5 percent free throw clip.

The Kohl Center hasn't been kind to Michigan

Sam Dekker is a freshman who averages 8.7 points per game and is the team’s best three-point shooter at 42.1 percent. Traevon Jackson is the other guard, but has had his share of struggles this season. He turns the ball over nearly twice a game, which is uncharacteristic of the typical Bo Ryan guard, and is shooting just 28 percent from three-point range.

The other big man that plays a lot is Mike Bruesewitz. You might know him as the big white guy with the red afro. He averages 7.1 points and 5.6 rebounds in 27 minutes per game and is the hustle guy that plays a similar role as Mitch McGary. He’s shooting 45.1 percent overall and a smidgen over 30 percent from downtown, but he’s also the guy most likely to bank in a three at the buzzer (yes, I’m still bitter about what Josh Gasser did to us a couple years ago).

The main key for Michigan in this one is to not let Wisconsin dictate the tempo, which is exactly what the Ryan will want his squad to do. The Badgers are not very good offensively, so Michigan wil need to turn up the intensity on defense to force some turnovers and get out on the fast break where the Wolverines are deadly. If the entire offense revolves around Trey Burke taking step-back threes at the end of the shot-clock, Michigan likely won’t win. Push the tempo in the early going, get out to a good lead, and make Wisconsin win with its offense.

Michigan hasn’t won at the Kohl Center since 1999, and with a trip to East Lansing looming on Tuesday, will need to end that streak. Sam says Michigan will do just that with a 68-58 win to regain the No.1 ranking come Monday.

The Michigan Medley analyzes Michigan’s bowl outlook

Thursday, November 29th, 2012


With an 8-4 record and a second place finish in the Big Ten Legends Division, Michigan is obviously headed to a bowl game. Since Ohio State and Penn State are both ineligible for postseason play, Michigan’s bowl destination will be better than it would have been had the 12-0 (8-0) Buckeyes and 8-4 (6-2) Nittany Lions been able to go bowling.

Games to watch on Saturday
Atlanta, Ga. Indianapolis, Ind.
#2 Alabama #3 Georgia #12 Nebraska Wisconsin
11-1 11-1 10-2 7-5
4pm on CBS 8:17pm on FOX

Michigan will fill the Big Ten’s second or third bowl slot behind the winner of Saturday’s Big Ten Championship game between Nebraska and Wisconsin. The winner will get the conference’s guaranteed BCS bid, while the loser is unlikely to receive a BCS at-large due to the conference’s weak showing all season. There is a chance Nebraska could still get one if it loses, but the bowl committees won’t look to kindly on an end-of-season loss to a 7-5 team.

If Nebraska wins and heads to the Rose Bowl, the Capital One Bowl will choose between Michigan, Northwestern, and Wisconsin. A 7-6 Wisconsin squad is likely the odd man out despite playing in the Big Ten title game because the Badgers wouldn’t have been there if Ohio State was eligible. Michigan will travel far better than Northwestern will, and a matchup between the Wolverines and a top-tier SEC school is far more appealing than one involving the Wildcats.

If Wisconsin beats Nebraska and goes to Pasadena, Nebraska will likely get slotted into the Capital One Bowl, pushing Michigan down to the Outback Bowl in Tampa. In the previous two decades, Tampa was a familiar sight for Michigan, but the Wolverines haven’t been there since beating Florida in 2003. The bowl committee would love to get a Michigan vs. SEC matchup in Raymond James Stadium. So who will Michigan face? Depending on the outcome of the Big Ten title game as well as the other conference championships, Georgia, Florida, Texas A&M, and LSU are most likely. Let’s take a look at each team.

Likely Bowl Opponent Comparison
Points/Game 38.0 26.8 44.8 30.2
Scoring Defense 17.7 12.9 22.5 16.9
Rush Avg 190.1 194.5 235.1 179.9
Rush Def. Avg 163.4 97.0 140.9 101.8
Pass Avg 273.6 143.9 317.2 207.2
Pass Def. Avg 174.4 186.4 248.4 194.3
Total Yds Avg 463.7 338.4 552.3 387.2
Total Def. Avg 337.8 283.4 389.3 296.2
Turnovers 16 12 20 16
Takeaways 25 29 15 31
Time of Poss 28:39 33:07 28:33 31:09
3rd Down Conv. 69/150 (46%) 62/168 (37%) 102/184 (55%) 75/181 (41%)
3rd Down Def. 64/180 (36%) 49/173 (28%) 58/189 (31%) 51/167 (31%)
Sacks by/allowed 24/22 25/36 30/23 30/26
Field Goals 8-for-12 23-for-28 13-for-22 20-for-28
PATs 54-for-58 34-for-35 64-for-71 41-for-41
Red Zone pct. 35/41 (85%) 35/42 (83%) 56/64 (88%) 42/50 (84%)
Red Zone Def. 25/35 (71%) 23/32 (72%) 31/40 (77%) 24/31 (77%)
Red Zone TD pct. 30/41 (73%) 22/42 (52%) 47/64 (73%) 25/50 (50%)
Red Zone TD Def. 18/35 (51%) 15/32 (47%) 24/40 (60%) 19/31 (61%)

Georgia faces Alabama in the SEC Championship game on Saturday in what is essentially the BCS National Championship play-in game. Notre Dame awaits the winner. The loser will still probably get a BCS at-large bid because of the strength of the conference, especially if Alabama is on the losing end. But there’s a slight chance that if Georgia is blown out by the Crimson Tide, the Dawgs would fall to the Capital One Bowl and Florida will gain a BCS at-large bid.

Georgia has quietly put together an impressive season, beating then-No. 2 Florida in Athens, and outscoring opponents by an average of 38-17. But if there is a knock on the Dawgs it is the fact that the SEC scheduling allowed them to skirt playing LSU and Texas A&M and they didn’t play anybody of note in the non-conference. The only loss was a 35-7 thrashing by South Carolina on Oct. 6. The Gamecocks were the only other ranked team Georgia played all season. We will find out on Saturday whether they are for real or merely benefited from a favorable schedule.

Florida and Georgia would both present stern tests for Michigan (Sam Greenwood, Getty Images)

Florida won’t get to play in the SEC Championship game because of a 17-9 loss to Georgia. It was the Gators’ only loss of the season, although they had several close wins. Thanks to the SEC’s wacky scheduling, Florida got to face Texas A&M in Week 2, before super freshman Johnny Manziel took off, and beat the Aggies 20-17. They beat LSU 14-6, hung on against Missouri 14-7, and needed some late magic to hold off Louisiana-Lafayette 27-20. Like Georgia, the Gators didn’t play much of a non-conference schedule save the annual matchup with rival Florida State. Bowling Green, Jacksonville State, and Louisiana-Lafayette were the other opponents. If both Alabama and Georgia earn BCS bowl bids, Florida will likely be slotted into the Capital One Bowl.

Texas A&M finished the season 10-2 and 6-2 in the SEC with losses to Florida (20-17) and LSU (24-19). The Aggies feature one of the best players in college football, likely Heisman Trophy winner Johnny Manziel. They rank fourth nationally in points per game (44.8) and shook up the BCS standings by beating Alabama on Nov. 10 (29-24). Since they were in the SEC West, they didn’t have to face Georgia or South Carolina, and their non-conference schedule featured SMU, South Carolina State, Louisiana Tech, and Sam Houston State. The Aggies will likely go to the Cotton Bowl, but bowl committees would love to get a matchup of two of college football’s most exciting players, Manziel and Denard Robinson.

LSU put together a good season, going 10-2 with losses to Florida (14-6) and Alabama (21-17). In the game against Alabama, LSU moved the ball with relative ease and led the Tide 17-14 late in the fourth before A.J. McCarron hooked up with T.J. Yeldon on a screen pass that went 28 yards for a touchdown with 51 seconds left. The Tigers beat Texas A&M 24-19 on the road and South Carolina 23-21. Like the Florida and Georgia, LSU didn’t play much of an out-of-conference schedule of North Texas, Washington, Idaho State, and Towson. LSU is probably the most unlikely opponent among the group, but if Wisconsin beats Nebraska and Michigan slides to the Outback, it’s possible.

Florida and Georgia are probably the most likely, depending on the outcome of the SEC title game, which will be played Saturday at 4pm on CBS and the Big Ten title game, which will be played Saturday at 8:17pm on FOX. I would much rather face Florida than Georgia or Texas A&M. While A&M doesn’t quite have the defense the other two feature, Florida’s offense is not very good. The Gators are pretty comparable to Notre Dame with a really good defense and a lackluster offense, and Michigan hung with Notre Dame for most of the game, falling due to a cacophony of turnovers. Regardless of the opponent, it will be a tough bowl game to win for Michigan this season since they will essentially be playing up a slot or two. If Ohio State and Penn State were eligible, Michigan would probably be playing in the Gator Bowl against someone like Mississippi State.

Rival Rewind finally gives Notre Dame some credit

Wednesday, October 31st, 2012


Michigan has the unique position of having three big rivals. Most teams only have one rival to get up for, but year-in and year-out, Michigan has three. While we, as fans, hate each of these teams, we carry some respect for them. Michigan State and Ohio State carry conference affiliation ties while Notre Dame, well, we all just put up with them. All season long, it’s fun to keep track of how each of them is doing, but there’s only so much time on Saturday to watch games. More often than not, they play at the same time Michigan does so you don’t get a chance to do your “advanced scouting.” Well, don’t fret because we’ve got you covered. This weekly feature will give you an overview of Notre Dame, Michigan State, and Ohio State’s games the previous weekend and a look ahead to the upcoming one.

#5 Notre Dame 30 – #8 Oklahoma 13
Record: 8-0
This Week: Home vs. Pittsburgh (4-4, 1-3 Big East) | 3:30pm | NBC

I did not expect Notre Dame to win Saturday night, nor did I expect it to be as wide a margin as it was. Yet, the Irish are now sitting at 8-0 with USC the only remaining opponent of note. The score might lead one to think the game wasn’t very close but up until the latter half of the fourth quarter it was anyone’s game.

Boomer Sooner was no match for the Irish (photo by Wesley Hitt, Getty Images)

The game was back and forth for the first three plus quarters before Notre Dame pulled ahead with 17 unanswered. The Irish dominated on the ground, taking advantage of Oklahoma’s weak rush defense to the tune of 215 yards. No single player went over 100 yards but Riddick, Wood and Golson all found the end zone. Landry Jones was 35-for-51 for 356 yards, exposing the Irish secondary, but he failed to put the ball in the end zone and was picked off by Manti Te’o late in the game.

Oklahoma tied the game at 13 with just over nine minutes remaining in the game on a Blake Bell run, and it looked like this one was going to go down to the wire. The Irish, however, had other ideas as Everett Golson capped off a 73-yard drive with a touchdown run. Manti Te’o sealed the Irish victory as he picked off a Landry Jones pass with 4:27 remaining. Notre Dame added a field goal and the Sooners turned the ball over on downs on their own 20, leading to another Irish touchdown.

The Irish defense stifled Oklahoma on 3rd downs (5-of-14) and have yet to allow more than 17 points in any one game. I think it’s safe to say the Irish are making their way back to national relevance, but I will hold off any praise until I see a BCS bowl appearance in back to back seasons of at least 10 wins.

This Week:

The Irish head back home to take on an average Pitt team. I expect to see more of the same solid Irish defense we have seen thus far as Notre Dame continues its quest towards the BCS title game.

Prediction: Notre Dame 27 – Pitt 12

___________________________________________________________________________________

Michigan State 16 – Wisconsin 13 OT
Record: 5-4 (2-3 Big Ten)
This Week: Home vs. #20 Nebraska (6-2, 3-1 Big Ten) | 3:30pm | ABC

Wisconsin, barring a complete collapse and some miracles, is heading to Indianapolis for the Big Ten title game. They experienced a little hiccup Saturday as Michigan State stunned them in overtime, giving the Badgers their first home loss since 2009, snapping a streak of 21 straight.

MSU celebrates the fact that it's no longer in danger of missing a bowl (photo by Andy Manis, AP)

It was a typical Big Ten battle as the Spartans bottled up Montee Ball and held the Badgers to 190 yards of total offense. Michigan State was nothing special on offense as their normally stout rushing attack was held to 61 total yards. Neither team looked good in this one but MSU managed to get the game into overtime and won on an Andrew Maxwell touchdown pass.

It was a bit surprising to see Montee Ball held to such a low total but the Spartans have proven to be solid against the run. William Gholston and Max Burrough combined for eight tackles for loss as they again led the Michigan State defense.

This Week:

Sparty heads back home to take on a Nebraska team fresh off its upset win over Michigan. I was not that impressed with Nebraska last week, despite their win, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see MSU frustrate Taylor Martinez into some bad decisions and come away with the win, which would be great for Michigan. But we shall see what happens.

Prediction: Michigan State 24 – Nebraska 21

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Ohio State 35 – Penn State 23
Record: 9-0 (5-0 Big Ten)
This Week: Home vs. Illinois (2-6, 0-4 Big Ten) | 3:30pm | ESPN

Braxton Miller exploded – surprise surprise – for three touchdowns as Ohio State ran away with the game against Penn State. His passing left something to be desired as he was only 7-for-19, but his legs got the job done again with 25 carries for 134 yards and two touchdowns.

OSU won the "Probation Bowl" or the "Ineligibowl" as some were calling it (photo by Gene J. Puskar)

The outcome was never in doubt after half as OSU rattled off 21 points in the third, kicked off by a pick six from Ryan Shazier. Penn State attempted to come back but couldn’t close the gap. Once again, Ohio State gave up a ton of yards through the air as Matt McGloin went 27-for-45 for 327 yards, two touchdowns, and a pick.

The Buckeyes used their ground game to pound Penn State into submission, racking up 234 yards and three touchdowns.

This Week:

OSU looks primed to win its next two games against Illinois (on Saturday) and at Wisconsin, setting up a great game against Michigan. Michigan will be fighting for a shot at the Big Ten title game and OSU will be playing its last game of the season. Michigan’s defense has been stout against the run and pass but its offense has been incredibly one-dimensional. We’ll touch more on that as the game approaches, but needless to say it should be a great game. Illinois won’t put up much of a fight, and OSU should win easily.

Prediction: Ohio State 42 – Illinois 17

Michigan Hoops Preview: #19 Wisconsin

Sunday, January 8th, 2012


After picking up its first Big Ten loss of the season on Thursday at Indiana, Michigan gets right back to the hardwood this afternoon to face another tough opponent, the Wisconsin Badgers in the Crisler Center.

#13 Michigan v. #19 Wisconsin
Sunday, Jan. 8
1:30 p.m. ET
CBS
Ann Arbor, Mich.
12-3 (2-1) Record 12-4 (1-2)
Ferris State 59-33
Towson 64-47
W. Illinois 59-55
#8 Memphis 73-61
UCLA 79-63
Iowa State 79-66
Oakland 90-80
Ark. Pine-Bluff 63-50
Alabama A&M 87-57
Bradley 77-66
Penn State 71-53
Minnesota 61-56
Wins Kennesaw 85-31
Colgate 68-41
Wofford 69-33
UMKC 77-31
Bradley 66-43
BYU 73-56
Green Bay 70-42
UNLV 62-51
Milwaukee 60-54
Savannah State 66-33
Miss. Valley State 79-45
Nebraska 64-40
#6 Duke 75-82
Virginia 58-70
#11 Indiana 71-73
Losses #5 North Carolina 57-60
#16 Marquette 54-61
Iowa 65-72
#11 Mich. State 60-63 OT
70.9 Points Per Game 67.2
60.8 Scoring Defense 47.2
388-for-808 (48.0%) Field Goal % 385-for-869 (44.3%)
326-for-796 (41.0%) Def. Field Goal % 286-for-819 (34.9%)
131-for-355 (36.9%) 3-point % 126-for-337 (37.4%)
98-for-283 (34.6%) Def. 3-point % 44-for-177 (24.9%)
156-for-228 (68.4%) Free Throw % 179-for-254 (70.5%)
10.4 Free Throws Made/Game 11.2
33.7 Rebounds Per Game 35.8
30.7 Opp. Rebounds Per Game 31.4
14.5 Assists Per Game 12.5
12.1 Turnovers Per Game 8.4
5.0 Steals Per Game 5.9
2.7 Blocks Per Game 3.9
G – Tim Hardaway (15.8)
G – Trey Burke (13.7)
Leading Scorer G – Jordan Taylor (13.7)
F – Jared Berggren (11.9)
F – Evan Smotrycz (6.7)
F – Jordan Morgan (5.3)
Leading Rebounder G – Ryan Evans (6.6)
F – Mike Bruesewitz (5.1)

Wisconsin enters with a 12-4 record, but has dropped its last two games, a 72-65 home loss to Iowa and a 63-60 overtime loss to 11th-ranked Michigan State. The Badgers’ other two losses were to ranked teams, a three point road loss to #5 North Carolina and a 61-54 loss to 16th-ranked Marquette.

Aside from those two losses, the rest of the Badgers’ non-conference schedule was largely uninspiring. They did beat 14-4 BYU and 16-2 UNLV, but the other nine opponents have a combined 55-87 record.

Wisconsin is led by senior point guard Jordan Taylor who has seemingly been in Madison for a decade. He averages 13.7 points and 4.7 assists per game. Last time out, in the overtime loss to Michigan State, Taylor poured in 28 points on 7-of-11 shooting. He also scored 18 against North Carolina, so he plays his best in the biggest games. In last season’s two matchups, he led the Badgers in scoring with 20 each time.

The second leading scorer is forward Jared Berggren, who averages 11.9 points and shoots nearly 36 percent from three-point range. For a 6’10″ guy, that helps stretch the defense. However, he’s just one for his last 11 in the last two games.

Two other players average in double digits, forward Ryan Evans (10.2) and guard Ben Brust (10.1). Michigan fans will of course remember sophomore guard John Gasser who banked in the game-winning, and heart-breaking three last season in Ann Arbor. He is the Badgers’ leading three-point shooter so far this season, having hit 20-of-38 so far.

Wisconsin’s strength has been its stifling defense, which ranks first in the nation in points allowed, giving up an average of 47.2 per game. It’s also first nationally in field goal percentage defense (34.9 percent). It sounds too simple, but the key to the game for both teams will be hitting shots. Michigan has to knock down its open shots, especially Tim Hardaway Jr, who is just 4-of-33 (12.1 percent) from three-point range in the last four games.

Michigan’s defense has to guard the three better than it has lately. In the last two games, Minnesota and Indiana hit 15-of-30 threes, and in Michigan’s first to losses to Duke and Virginia, the two teams combined to hit 20-of-46. That’s 46 percent in three losses and a narrow win over Minnesota. Wisconsin’s offense relies on threes like Michigan’s does, so the Wolverines have to defend the three if they want to win this game.

Expect a close and hard-fought game coming down to the wire, and whichever team can knock down its threes should win.

Rival Rewind is Setting Up a Meaningful Showdown

Wednesday, November 2nd, 2011


When Brady Hoke was named head coach in January, he immediately set the tone by referring to Ohio State as simply Ohio and made it very clear that beating Ohio was one of the supreme goals each season. And so we at Maize and Go Blue are taking it upon ourselves to dedicate a little time each week to our rival as well. In this weekly segment, we’ll give a brief recap of the previous week’s game and what it means for Michigan. For a full rundown of our rivals’ games, see Week 1, Week 2, Week 3, Week 4, Week 5, Week 6, Week 7.

Now that Michigan has already played Notre Dame and Michigan State, we don’t care about those teams. The weekly Rival Rewind segment is going to transition into a sole focus on the lone rival remaining: Ohio State. It will provide a more in-depth look at each Ohio game and preview its upcoming game.

In its previous game, Ohio State entered its bye week with an energizing 17-7 victory over then-No. 16 Illinois, ending a two game skid, and pushing the Buckeyes’ record above .500. This past weekend, the Buckeyes hosted the 15th-ranked Wisconsin Badgers who were fresh off a stinging defeat at the hands of Michigan State. Were the Bucks able to stay hot?

Ohio State: Beat #15 Wisconsin 33-29
Record: 5-3 (2-2)

Ohio State continued its upward climb this past weekend, knocking off 15th-ranked Wisconsin 33-29 in the Horseshoe.

The game started off slow, looking like a classic defensive battle, as Wisconsin took a 7-3 lead into the half. But in the second half, the floodgates opened and Ohio State’s anemic offense suddenly looked like it had never missed a beat.

Braxton Miller scored a one-yard touchdown run to put the Bucks ahead 10-7 just three minutes into the half. The touchdown was set up by a 57-yard romp and a 18-yard run by Dan Herron. Ohio State forced Wisconsin into a punt situation and blocked the punt, giving the Bucks possession at the Wisconsin 1-yard line. Three plays later, Jordan Hall punched it in to widen the lead to 17-7.

Wisconsin punted again, but Hall fumbled the punt and Wisconsin recovered at the OSU 27-yard line. Wisconsin’s Montee Ball carried it in to pull the deficit to three.

Ohio State tacked on a field goal at the beginning of the fourth quarter and Wisconsin was stopped on 4th-and-2 from the Ohio State 38 with just over eight minutes remaining. Six plays later (all runs), Miller took it in to put Ohio State ahead 26-14. The two-point conversion attempt failed.

Wisconsin wasn’t finished, however, scoring on just four plays, set up by Ball’s 40-yard run to the OSU 17. Russell Wilson connected with Jared Abbrederis to pull the Badgers within five at 26-21.

Ohio State was forced to punt and Wisconsin used two timeouts to get the ball back with 2:36 remaining. Once again, it took just four plays as Wilson and Abbrederis hooked up again, this time for a 49-yard touchdown to shock Columbus. The two-point conversion was good and suddenly, Wisconsin had a 29-26 lead with 1:18 to play.

Fans in Columbus celebrated a win over 15th-ranked Wisconsin like it was 2002 (photo by Kirk Irwin, Getty Images)

Ohio State got a good kick return and moved the ball to the Wisconsin 40-yard line with less than a minute to play. Needing only a field goal to force overtime, Miller took the snap, flushed to his right towards the line of scrimmage and the sideline and let loose a bomb across his body toward the end zone. Those watching on TV couldn’t see the wide open Devin Smith behind the Wisconsin secondary and immediately assumed interception, but as the TV cameras panned to the left, the ball floated into Smith’s arms and set off bedlam in the ‘Shoe.

Wisconsin’s last-second prayer fell short and Buckeye fans stormed the field, for at least a night of forgetting all about the problems that have plagued the program for nearly the past year, and are still to come when the NCAA hands down its sanctions.

Right now, it seems as if this Buckeye team is coming together. Everybody knew Ohio State’s defense was a force to be reckoned with this season, but the offense was struggling to move the ball with Joe Bauserman under center. When interim head coach Luke Fickell decided to switch to Miller, the true freshman, it signaled a turn to the future.

But it was much more than switching between Steven Threet and Nick Sheridan. While still young and inexperienced, Miller is a playmaker and a threat with his legs as much as his arm. He’s still erratic at times but as the broadcasters kept saying during the telecast, he keeps his eyes downfield while running, allowing him to find open receivers as the play breaks down. And that’s what makes him dangerous.

The scary thing is the Ohio State offense is just going to keep getting better. Offensive tackle Mike Adams returned a couple weeks ago, as did running back Herron. Three weeks from now (barring any further penalty) receiver DeVier Posey will return to give a shot to the arm of the passing game, and with every passing week, Miller will continue to gain confidence.

Ohio State has the fortune of playing Indiana and Purdue the next two weeks to likely push its record to 7-3 before returning home to host Penn State and then traveling to Ann Arbor for The Game. To be honest, Ohio State winning the past couple of weeks and reenergizing the fan base is a good thing.

For one, it keeps the Buckeyes in the thick of the Big Ten race, and as long as Michigan keeps winning, could set up a showdown with major implications on Nov. 26. For the first half of the season, it appeared The Game wouldn’t be a major factor in the Big Ten race.

Secondly, with Ohio State at a likely 8-3 or, at worst, 7-4 heading into The Game, it will be that much sweeter when Michigan turns the tide of the rivalry. Beating a downtrodden program, like OSU has done to us the past three years, will just inspire excuses from down south. Beating a team on a five-game winning streak with a spot in the Big Ten Championship game on the line is the kind of thing that shaped the rivalry over the past 100-plus years.

This week, Ohio State hosts Indiana at noon on the Big Ten Network, the same time as the Michigan game, which means none of us will be watching. Not that we need to. Indiana comes in at 1-8 (0-5 in the Big Ten) and ranks 114th out of 120 FBS teams in scoring defense, giving up 36.2 points per game. The Hoosiers haven’t beaten an FBS team yet (the only win was against FCS South Carolina State), so don’t expect to see anything worthwhile in Columbus this weekend.

Next: Saturday v. Indiana (1-8, 0-5) – 12pm on Big Ten Network

Prediction: Ohio 46 – Indiana 10

Devin Smith catches the game-winning catch with 20 seconds to play as Ohio State upset #15 Wisconsin (photo by Jay LaPrete, AP)

Comparing Tournament Bubble Resumes

Tuesday, February 22nd, 2011


With three games to go in the regular season, Michigan still has a lot of work to do if it wants to make the Big Dance. The good news is the Wolverines didn’t play themselves out of the picture in the past week, but unfortunately, they didn’t do anything to play themselves into the NCAA Tournament either.

A last-second loss at Illinois and an overtime win at Iowa leave Michigan squarely on the bubble with a key matchup with No. 12 Wisconsin looming on Wednesday. Michigan has yet to capture a quality win this season and beating Wisconsin would give John Beilein’s club the ammo it needs to get the nod over other bubble teams.

Currently, ESPN doesn’t even list Michigan in its Bracketology, but let’s take a look at how the Wolverines stack up against some of the other comparable bubble teams from major conferences.

Team Record Conf. Pos. Conf. Rank RPI KenPom SOS v. Top 50
v. Top 100
A 15-11 (7-7) 7 2 40 42 5 4-8 8-10
B 18-9 (7-6) 5 5 65 36 83 2-4 7-7
C 17-11 (7-8) 6 2 58 50 24 2-8 7-10
D 16-11 (4-9) 11 3 56 82 36 3-5 5-10
E 17-9 (6-6) T5 3 79 59 69 1-4 4-6
F 18-8 (10-2) T1 6 76 33 128 2-2 3-4
G 16-11 (7-7) 11 1 67 32 33 3-10 5-11
H 17-9 (6-8) 8 2 39 39 30 3-6 5-7
I 16-10 (6-6) T6 5 45 70 19 1-6 7-9

If you had to compare those resumes without knowing which team is which, what teams would you choose? All but one of these teams is predicted to make the tournament according to ESPN’s Bracketology. That one team left out is Michigan. But in looking at these resumes, I would certainly argue that Michigan is at least in the top half of these nine teams.

Team A is Michigan State, a projected 11 seed. The Spartans have quality wins over RPI #36 Washington, RPI #18 Wisconsin, and RPI #39 Minnesota, but losses to Penn State, Iowa, and at home to Michigan don’t help their case.

Team B is Clemson, another team that lost to Michigan. The Tigers don’t really have a quality win and lost to RPI #119 South Carolina and RPI # 146 Virginia. It has a chance to pick up a major win next Wednesday at Duke, but the ACC is relatively weak this year and Clemson’s strength of schedule ranks second worst among the teams on this list.

Team C is Michigan. Aside from Michigan State, Michigan has the most wins vs. RPI top 100 teams of any of the teams on this list, plus wins over Michigan State and Clemson. Michigan also has the third toughest strength of schedule of the teams on this list. A loss to RPI #177 Indiana hurts, as well as no signature wins, but Michigan gets plenty of opportunity with Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Michigan State remaining.

Team D is Oklahoma State. Having lost nine of its last 12, Oklahoma State should be one of the last teams considered on this list. Wins over RPI #31 Kansas State and RPI #29 Missouri help, but the Cowboys stand 11th in the Big 12 and just lost to Kansas by 27.

Team E is Baylor, which has a win over RPI #26 Texas A&M and a win over Oklahoma State, who’s also on this list. Losses to RPI #145 Iowa State and RPI #141 Texas Tech don’t help the Bears’ case, and they are tied for the fewest wins over RPI Top 50 teams of all the teams on this list.

Tim Hardaway Jr. was named Big Ten Freshman of the Week for the second week in a row (photo by AP)

Team F is Alabama, an interesting study. The only SEC team on this list, the Crimson Tide have the best record and the best conference record on this list. If ‘Bama wins the SEC, we won’t even be able to include it as a bubble team since it will earn an automatic bid, but for now, we’ll examine. The SEC is the weakest of the major conferences and Alabama’s schedule ranks 128th in the NCAA. The best out-of-conference team it played was Purdue, which handed the Tide a 19 point loss. Alabama did beat RPI #16 Kentucky, but lost to RPI #117 St. Peter’s, RPI #165 Iowa, RPI #114 Arkansas, and RPI #137 Providence. It also lost to Oklahoma State from this list. Fair or not, a weak conference will probably get the Tide into the tournament over a more qualified team.

Team G is Marquette, a projected 11 seed in ESPN’s Bracketology. In contrast to Alabama, Marquette plays in the nation’s toughest conference, the Big East, and for the most part, has held its own with wins over RPI #10 Notre Dame and RPI #19 Syracuse. The Golden Eagles played nearly everybody tough, losing to Duke by five, Wisconsin by five, Pitt by eight, Louisville by one, UConn by eight, Villanova by five, and Georgetown by nine. Marquette really hasn’t been beaten bad all season.

Team H is Minnesota, another Big Ten foe that Michigan plays on Saturday. The Gophers have wins over RPI #11 North Carolina and RPI #7 Purdue. Losses to RPI #146 Virginia and RPI #177 Indiana don’t help the Gophers’ case, but like Michigan, Minnesota has a chance to play its way into the tournament with Michigan State, Michigan, and Penn State left to play.

Team I is Boston College, which has the second toughest strength of schedule on this list. Similar to Michigan, BC has no quality wins, but only one bad loss (to RPI #166 Yale). Unlike Michigan, BC doesn’t have a good opportunity to play its way into the tournament, with games against Miami, Virginia, Virginia Tech, and Wake Forest left.

If I had to rank the teams on this list for NCAA Tournament likelihood, based solely on resume to this point, it would go like this: Marquette, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Baylor, Clemson, Boston College, Alabama, and Oklahoma State.

But the tournament selection isn’t today and there’s still work left to do. Michigan has a golden opportunity on Wednesday, hosting Wisconsin. A win would surely put Michigan on ESPN’s Bracketology radar. A loss would set up must-wins at Minnesota on Saturday and over Michigan State next Saturday. They’re still probably must-wins, but Wednesday is the key.